Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In praise of Lord Ashcroft – the UK’s leading commissioner
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In praise of Lord Ashcroft – the UK’s leading commissioner of political polling
To claim @lordashcroft has a “dangerous monopoly of political information” goes beyond hype telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… its evidently nonsense
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I've just been opinion polled on the relative merits of Boris and the current chap in No. 10. It is one of the few things that could change the current political balance of power that is directly within the power of the political class - all other potential game-changing events are in the power of outside forces.
"China was the richest country in the world from about 1AD to 1700AD. Then the Brits took over for a century and a half, maybe two at most, then the Americans took over in about 1870."
Whatever the details of the dates China/India are further examples of innovation being the driver of long-term prosperity. China invented/developed a ton of stuff early on and that made them relatively more prosperous than most other places.
(My reading is they stopped quite early and coasted on their laurels for a long time after but it didn't matter because no-one else caught them up for a long time.)
Being at the head of the technology curve (or at least in the top ten) is the best guarantor of relative prosperity *not* aiming for a plantation economy competing solely on labour costs which is a total dead end and as far as i can see seems to be the political class' only plan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cut-up_technique
"From the early 1970s, David Bowie has used cut-ups to create some of his lyrics. This technique influenced Kurt Cobain's songwriting.[4] Thom Yorke applied a similar method in Radiohead's Kid A (2000) album, writing single lines, putting them into a hat, and drawing them out at random while the band rehearsed the songs."
I feel PB should devote many more threads to individuals of outstanding merit who through their various polling/projection organizations bring complete clarity to the sundry dross that too often infests the political hinterland.
Cough .....
On Topic:
Peter Oborne doesn't half write some iditotic things. His polemicism is fatuous.
You must find Ed Miliband's right wing rhetoric on immigration disturbing ;
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/03/political-dangers-milibands-new-approach-immigration
Personally I've had my concerns about EdM ever since he promoted Woolas to his shadow cabinet.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1311491/Labour-MP-Phil-Woolas-accused-stirring-race-hate-win-white-vote.html
Firstly, I do think that the personal attacks by Ashcroft on Cameron are unhelpful and disloyal. There may well be a debate to have on strategy but the way he is doing it brings solace to no one but Labour.
Secondly, I recall vividly at the last election how Ashcroft himself became a real point of attack by Labour who went after his tax affairs etc in a big way. Cameron stood by him then and he has not returned the respect or the favour.
Thirdly, it is clear that Ashcroft has been frozen out since the election and he has not responded well to that. Unfortunately his behaviour has been a self-fulfilling prophesy and I do tend to agree with Oborne's central point that you do wonder what he is doing in the Conservative party any more. My suspicion is that Cameron did learn things about his tax affairs/Belize investments that he was not comfortable with but who knows.
Ashcroft and his money sustained the tories at a very difficult time but it is a mistake to confuse his utility in producing polling data which this site amongst others feed on and his utility to the tory party itself. Oborne, more often than not is just plain wrong. Here he has grossly overstated his case but he is not completely wrong.
I agree with those who say there's a difference between praising Ashcroft's polling and his role for the Conservatives.
In unrelated news, Gary Anderson's had a quick look at the top 6 teams so far this season. Nothing too staggering, but it's still interesting to read: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22881935
And now its being transferred to Crosby as if he were some anti-Christ - its laughable stuff.
I think Ashcroft is a man who feels very thwarted in his ambitions and has rather lost his way - so is using his substantial influence to attack those he feels *stole* his dreams from him aka Crosby chosen instead and Cameron who isn't suitably grateful in his view.
Cameron stuck by Ashcroft for very many months - if not longer re his tax position, and I think its very ungentlemanly of him to seek to attack one of people who defended him out of spite.
Whatever services Ashcroft is providing re polling, he's sullying his own reputation by acting like a sulky teenager. A great pity since he's done some great philanthropic stuff re Crimestoppers, the Imp War Museum, VCs et al.
Yeah, the Chinks are only good at mass production, what with their slitty eyes and all. What dribbling, racist rubbish. China was an advanced civilisation when we were worshipping the moon.
Sure, China used to be an incredibly innovative country - when there were multiple local princes each with a court full of scientists and inventors keen to impress their masters.
Centralised control of such a vast empire has required centralised control of the population (most obviously post Mao, but even throughout the Manchurian era and before - what was the bureaucracy but a system of centralised control). Their examination system is designed to encourage hard work and rote learning.
These are all good attributes for a country - and China has many natural advantages - but in the work I do there I don't see much in the way of real innovation. **However* this is not the same as saying the Chinese people *can't* innovate. Taiwain, which lacks the natural advantages, is an incredibly innovative society.
So it's all about playing to strengths: China has lots of resources and, currently, relatively cheap labour plus a need to maintain social control. The last thing the government wants is successful mavericks. In the UK or the US it's often the maverick that makes a lot of money...
Incidentally, Oborne is quite right about the attitiude of ConHome.Its an utter disgrace as far as loyla Conservatuves in the mainstream like me are concerned and most of us are fed up to the back teeth with these constant attacks on the PM.
An unusual set of comments here. Tim and colleagues supposedly giving the Conservative party good advice. If I were a Tory, I'd be very suspicious. Three possibilities -
(1) They are being altruistic and want to help the Tories.
(2) They dislike Crosby for some reason.
(3) They fear Crosby.
We can eliminate (1) so perhaps it's a combination of (2) and (3)?
I happily admit to being ignorant on this.
A culture of low expectations meant able pupils were failing to achieve top GCSE grades, Ofsted said in a report.
In 2012, 65% of pupils - 65,000 children - who had achieved Level 5 in maths and English tests at the end of primary school failed to attain A* or A grades in both these subjects at GCSE.
Head teachers said school league tables pushed schools into the middle ground.
The report - The Most Able Students: Are they doing as well as they should in our non-selective secondary schools? - found more than a quarter (27%) of previously high-attaining pupils had failed to achieve at least a B grade in both English and maths.
Ofsted defines high-achievers as those pupils who achieve a Level 5 in both English and maths in their national curriculum tests, commonly known as Sats.
The research - based on observations of 2,000 lessons, visits to 41 schools and school performance data - found in some non-selective schools, staff did not even know who their most able pupils were.
In 40% of the schools visited by inspectors, the brightest students were not making the progress they were capable of and many had become "used" to performing at lower levels, with parents and teachers accepting this "too readily", Ofsted said.
Tracking the progress of the most academically gifted was "not used sufficiently well in many schools", the report added.
Ofsted was critical of mixed-ability classes, saying they often saw "a lack of differentiation, teaching to the middle, and the top pupils not being stretched".
The report said teaching was "insufficiently focused" for able pupils in Key Stage 3 (aged 11-14) and schools should ensure class work was challenging at this stage so that able pupils could make rapid progress.
Ofsted chief inspector Sir Michael Wilshaw said Year 7 (the first year of secondary school) was a particularly critical time for the most academically able - arriving "bright-eyed and bushy-tailed" from primary school - because a cycle of underperformance could quickly set in.
He recommended school leaders consider streaming or setting pupils from the very start of their secondary education.
Sir Michael said parents should be sent annual reports giving information on whether their child was achieving as well as they should be.
Sir Michael said: "Too many non-selective schools are failing to nurture scholastic excellence.
"While the best of these schools provide excellent opportunities, many of our most able students receive mediocre provision.
"Put simply, they are not doing well enough because their secondary schools fail to challenge and support them sufficiently from the beginning.
"I believe the term 'special needs' should be as relevant to the most able as it is to those who require support for their learning difficulties.
"Yet some of the schools visited for this survey did not even know who their most able students were - this is completely unacceptable.
"It is a serious concern that many non-selective schools fail to imbue their most able students with the confidence and high ambition that characterise many students in the selective or independent sector."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-22873257
The critical thing will be how their economy adapts. They are living in interesting times, with their own property bubble and related issues at risk of popping, With a capital.ist economy, soonrr or later there will be an economic correction as part of the business cycle. How they handle it will affect all our countries. I suspect that they will find that economic freedom leads to political freedom.
It looks to me that China is the next economy to go pop as the crisis travels further east.
It is Oborne who is maximising and highlighting the rifts in the tory party. Maybe he is a red 'sleeper'?
Are you 'fed up to the back teeth' with the constant attacks by Cameron and his chums on Conservative voters ?
Party leaders being attacked by some of their own supporters has always happened.
What I've never seen before is the hatred, and the willingness to display it, which the Cameroons have for many of their own supporters and indeed those not born to privilege generally.
Ashcroft .... "He should pay his taxes and shut up".
I agree. As should all political donors, including Labour ones, without avoidance advice.
Tax advoidance is perfectly legal. Ed Milliband did it himself when rewriting his fathers will on his Primrose Hill mansion. Nothing wrong with that. Unless you make an issue of it for others.
Perhaps we should have a poll as to which Osborne debacle was the most staggeringly incompetant. Here's a few possibilities:
Being taken by surprise by the recession
Not dealing with Ashcroft's tax issues
The strutting austerity machismo of 2010
The electoral reform shambles
Poncing around the USA the week before the 2012 budget
Government backed subprime lending
Abuse of UKIP voters
And that is really the problem with the Oborne/Ashdown/Crosby spat. Courtiers fighting amongst themselves, rather than real participatory democracy.
But, please, do carry on. Things can only get better - to coin a phrase - but not for you.
The demographic trends in China as a result of the one child policy mean that there will be fewer such people in China, possibly even a deficit rather than a surplus. While China will no doubt encounter economic difficulties at various times, this demography may ensure that the political impact is a lot less than might be expected or hoped.
And now its being transferred to the lefty Crosby as if he were some tory strategist behind banging on about Europe and immigration - its laughable stuff.
I think the lefty Ashcroft is a man who feels very thwarted in his ambitions and has rather lost his way - so is using his substantial influence to attack those he feels *stole* his dreams from him aka the lefty Crosby chosen instead and Cameron who isn't suitably grateful according to the chumcoracy's inept spinners.
Cameron stuck by Ashcroft for very many months when everyone expected Cammie to immediately attack his own party treasurer, and I think its very ungentlemanly of the lefty Ashcroft not to grovel at Cammie's feet like a "floating voter" spinning ineptly.
Whatever services Ashcroft is providing re polling, he's sullying his own reputation by acting like a sulky teenager and not agreeing with "serial labour voters" that Cammie is wonderful.
Golly. ;^ )
I see the markets are heavily down again today, following gloomy news from China, and it looks like "stimulus" economics in Japan is not going very well either. It is difficult to cure debt with debt.
But on topic. Oborne is a barking loon. Ashcroft has his own agenda that is sometimes not helpful to the cause, but his polls are invaluable. And it is impossible to demur - if a loyal Tory you be - with his fulminations that the self-indulgent obsessions among a dispiriting number with in our ranks at the Palace of Varieties may contrive to snatch defeat from what could be the jaws of electoral vindication in 2015 as the economic revival accelerates.
Rubbish.
Time for someone else to have a go.
As ever, the best summary of Ashcroft's role comes from Ashcroft himself:
"My research has won a reputation for being objective and professionally conducted. My analysis is balanced, based on the evidence. Overall, my political commentary amounts to a prolonged reminder that the winning party will be the one that pays attention to the voters and their priorities. I hope that party will be the Conservative Party – but I think I’m more use to it as a truth-teller than a cheerleader.
Frack baby frack
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10117165/Centrica-to-unveil-shale-gas-drilling-plans-with-Cuadrilla.html
A poster called "BandofMobius" is on the money in the replies (no idea who they are)
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/06/lord-ashcroft-another-response-to-peter-oborne.html
Centrica confirms buying into Cuadrilla's Bowland shale: 25pc stake for £40m + £60m on drilling/fracking + potentially upto £60m development
For a big boy like Centrica to buy-in to shale, they must have had the nod from Government.
This really isn't complicated just because Cammie is in the middle of it.
If it wasn't those two it would just be somebody else because right now the space for these type of discussions/self publicising spats have been created by the kipper rise and tory uncertainty about how to deal with them and disagreement about the direction of the leadership and the coming election campaign strategy.
The tory grassroots and tory backbenchers no not require either Oborne or Ashcroft to create that uncertainty and disagreement with strategy and the leadership since it is already there.
Both are merely capitalising on it to further their own viewpoint and agendas.
Sunday Times had interesting article on the "next big thing" after fracking - methane hydrate - plentiful supply at bottom of sea. Greenies will hate it obviously...
More here
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/06/09/national/sea-of-japan-methane-hydrate-survey-kicks-off/
"Methane hydrate, a substance with a sherbetlike consistency comprised of methane gas and water, is believed to exist in a wide area of the seabed surrounding the Japanese archipelago. According to one estimate, those deposits are sufficient to cover the nation’s consumption of natural gas for around 100 years, prompting speculation that they could be potentially invaluable for resource-poor Japan."
Compare the current debates to Labour in 2007 during Gordon Brown's rise to power. 350 nodding-dog MPs and the likes of Polly Toynbee telling us that Brown was our saviour.
What a sack of shit that was.
Ashcroft is good for polling and good for the Tories. He mostly attacks the barmy backbenchers.
CON 30%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 12%; APP -33
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/06/13/update-labour-lead-8/
It's one thing to be accountable and willing to give press conferences etc. It's quite another to keep banging away pointlessly on this absurd and futile radio detox strategy when it was hardly very difficult to predict that this would keep happening.
http://www.centrica.com/index.asp?pageid=1162#ref_naturalgas
Lots on the Scots Borders.
If you think Brown's 'rise to power' was typified by anything other than an internecine internal war between the Blairites and the Brownites that lasted many, many years, (and is still going on in some places) or that the splits, spats and often abject chaos wasn't eagerly exploited by the tories, then you are living on a different planet.
IIRC NPXMP was extolling the virtues of Mr Brown - who then went on to be the worst PM in history.
Though we haven't seen that much of wee Dougie of late have we? Or indeed his best bud Murphy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2340689/Private-sector-job-creation-Its-fantasy-Mr-Balls-1-2m-new-roles-coalition.html
"It makes a mockery of the claim by Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls in October 2011 that it was ‘a complete fantasy’ the private sector could mop up the jobs culled in the public sector."
keeping a high birth rate (whether by immigration or other means (!?) ) brings its own problems in the long run
Perhaps a list of top Labour supporters who warned Brown would be the disaster that he turned out to be
Anthony Charles Lyton Blair ?
Some spats never really go away. Like Thatcher and Heath or Major and the bastards they rumble on with a life of their own even after the initial protagonists have left the centre stage.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8933371/the-best-leader-labour-never-had/
Virtually every post he makes is a thinly veiled attack on either old people or upper class people.
RT @paulwaugh: Another ONS fatherhood stat: 24% of babies in 2011 had fathers who were born outside UK. 1/9 fathers from Pakistan. Poles 2nd, Indians 3rd
Perhaps the Edinburgh Glasgow axis of SLAB and Labour is wobbling ever more precariously? I'm afraid further speculation would be fruitless as Lamont has this all under control, so little Ed tells her.
Where now for the other ultra-Blairites?
Time for Dan Hodges to jump into the fray again. For the sake of comedy if nothing else.
Why don't you go back to spamming about "fops" and "coffin dodgers"?
I'm guessing tim won't be banned for his nasty personal attack, as usual? Telling someone it's not safe for them to have children because they "drool" over child abuse, is quite possibly the most disgusting thing any poster has said on here. But then, it'll just be a tap on the wrist I guess.
Ashcroft adds to the width of informed advice available to the PM, and I would have thought it obvious that it should be valued for what it is.
Knocking copy works. But it very tough get right, and there is little margin for error.
" There is another downside to anti-swottist prejudice. Those poor unfortunates who have experienced life as a series of exams, each passed with flying colours, become seriously discombobulated when thrust into messy reality, and eclipsed by the slackers and slickers they disdained.
So they take refuge in a place where writing essays and learning facts are still rewarded – the Civil Service, which one Whitehaller memorably described to me as being staffed largely by the kind of people who always handed in their homework on time. Deny the swots a place in the real world, and they colonise the corridors of power instead – where they are in a perfect position, the state of the nation suggests, to wreak a terrible revenge." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationopinion/10116034/Deny-us-swots-a-place-in-the-world-and-well-wreak-revenge.html
Catholic priests.
For all their faults they were one of the few Labourites to call Brown out for being abject.
Of course, being a teenage morris dancer also helped to get me a lot of street cred.
Tim, knock it off. The tone especially.
Socrates, as per OGH please don't discuss moderation on the site. Especially when you don't know what's been done.
You have been banned from this site for several times for attacking others, but accusing another poster of being a paedophile whos unsafe to have children for expressing concern over child abuse cases is the worst thing you've ever posted on here. You are a despicable excuse for a human being, and it'll say a lot about the moderators on here how they choose to respond to this.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100221695/wanted-a-new-circle-of-dantes-hell-for-the-fools-who-crippled-half-of-europe-with-their-idiot-currency/
I know that I've just been accused of drooling over child abuse. I'm happy to take the conversation to private messages, but I shouldn't have to be exposed to someone who publicly harasses me with such outrageous allegations.
This will my last reply to one of your posts. It sickens me that people like you exist in the world.
http://www.google.com/trends/hottrends/visualize?nrow=15&ncol=15
edit: in case it wasn't clear.
May I recommend the Ignore function of EiT widget? It now works on both the main website and the backroom discussion forum. I use the backroom function as its much faster to load, has no adverts and shows posts in oldest first order.