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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it
The latest spate of London polls has been very positive for Labour with vote shares in the capital up 9% or more on 2010. It really does look as though the party is going to do very well there.
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And too long a campaign.
Wake me up when the exit poll is published!
Varied from fracking to why Dave isn't doing the head to head debate
Alexandra Swann (@AlexandralSwann)
31/03/2015 11:17
Fascist Bullies Hounding UKIP Candidates And Supporters - Breitbart bit.ly/1MssOfh via @BreitbartNews
LDs - literally 5 second clip of Danny Alexander - ignored in the sum-up. UKIP (and everyone else) - not even mentioned - not one single second of coverage.
Early signs are that UKIP Major Party status is reducing coverage of the LDs (when there were three major parties they could all be fitted in, when four they can't - so they reduce the LDs - and the end result is almost total focus on the big two).
YouGov London - down 0.5%
YouGov Wales - down 1%
ComRes Scotland - down 0.5%
All very marginal declines.
Even if I don't always agree with what you say I find what you say interesting and a valuable addition to this site. No wonder so many MPs are young wet-behind-the-ears Spads if those with any sort of life or past feel unable to put themselves forward.
Oops - and good evening all.
There are a great many of us in the party that have spent hours out in the freezing rain knocking on doors to get Conservative MPs to power. Those of us with more conservative views have had to accept a lot in the modernization of the party, and have accepted it even though we're sceptical of the leadership on issues like the European Union. Part of that acceptance has been because we have been promised some firm action: a reckoning with Brussels where we get some powers back, and then we put it to the people to judge how good that deal was. If 'the people' is changed to include foreign nationals and school children to get it past then the party would destroy any remaining trust they have from the activist base on this issue. I can not see many things pushing me to join UKIP, but that is one of them.
Unfortunately polls cost a lot of money (especially phone polls) and the indyref cost a lot of unexpected polling that ate into GE budgets for the media.
We're all public figures now.
Onion News Network: Every 2040 Presidential Candidate Already Unelectable Due To Facebook
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/28/onion-news-network-every-2040-candidate-facebook-video_n_1461371.html?
(Actually, that's second - top of the list is that no one in their right mind would vote for me.)
If electorates in these seats are growing massively it's all pointing in the direction of significantly increased inefficiency of the Lab vote.
If Con vote stays static it is just about impossible for Con to lose more than 5 seats to Lab in London.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/westminster-sneers-at-joey-essex-because-it-is-a-closed-shop-of-know-it-alls/
I'm always upset by how few people really "get" politics and sometimes that's bled into looking down on them. I must do better.
The reason I'd never be a good MP, my sense of humour and sarcasm would get me into trouble.
(and my ability to be commendably/recklessly honest)
Going for the jugular: 'Labour used to stand up to the Tories, they don't any more.'
Tonight's YouGov prediciton (Just For Fun)
Con Lead 3%
In the particular case we are talking about, I agree with you that the LibDem demands, as reported, are yucky. Obviously Cameron would try to do a deal which didn't involve giving in to them, but, if that's the price, that's the price.
You can just imagine the howls of anguish if Cameron said 'OK, in that case we won't have a referendum.' That really would be a betrayal of promises.
Alternatively he could let Ed Miliband become PM, or leave the country in chaos with no viable government. Neither is a better solution for Conservative supporters or the country as a whole.
When you are stuffed, you are stuffed. You have to make the best of a bad job. Ed Miliband will find much the same - indeed much worse - if he ends up in thrall to Ms Sturgeon.
Of course, all this can very easily be avoided, if the electorate so choose. It's up to them.
"how are the mighty fallen!
Tell it not in Gath, publish it not in the streets of Askelon; lest the daughters of the Philistines rejoice, lest the daughters of the uncircumcised triumph."
Or words to that effect.
Ah, go on.... You know you want to....
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Scotland.PNG
SNP 44.9%
Lab 26.8
Con 14.9%
LD 4.3%
20.1% swing to the SNP, very much in line with today's poll.
I make it that there are 8 Conservative seats in London that would go Labour on a 5% swing or less, plus a couple requiring a bit more which were both neck and neck in 2005 (Finchley & GG, Battersea). Plus it's definitely 3 LD seats which Lab is hoping to gain, 6/4 with Ladbrokes in B&S hardly suggesting that that's in the bag for Hughes. Whether Lab takes seats from Con or LD matters very little if you consider that the main risk to Lab is that of a Con coalition or minority with LD support. Indeed the bigger the pasting the LDs get, the less the risk that the rump of LD MPs will fancy carrying on where they left off with Cameron.
So that's 11 marginal seats in London which Lab hopes to gain, possibly 13 on a good day for them. Out of 73 that's reasonably consistent with other regions.
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ITV-News_Scottish-Labour-Constituencies-Poll_31st-March-2015.pdf
Is it just me or is the voter recall question absolutely and completely bonkers?
Thinking back to the General Election in 2010 when MPs were last voted to Parliament in Westminster, which party if any did you vote for? Was it Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, some other party, or did you not vote?
Does it not strike you that there might be a significant party missing there for a Labour-vs-SNP poll?
Politicians can't be allowed to choose the electorate to get the result they want. It goes against every principle of democracy. If the Liberal Democrats want to prevent a government forming on that basis, then we should let them and allow the Great British public to judge accordingly.
There's been a big city/town divergence in recent years' elections which hasn't really been covered by political analysts, with Labour doing well in the major cities but struggling in the smaller "cities" or medium-sized towns (even ones where they've traditionally been strong). So it's hard to tell what the net effect on Labour's vote "efficiency" will be, because the extra votes they disproportionately pile up in safe seats in London, Manchester, Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Birmingham, etc. might be cancelled out by leaking votes to UKIP in the Heywood & Middleton's.
Surprising start with it now being C 2, L 0, LD 0, Other 0
The big question is just how high will C go... I'll say 28, L 8, LD 1, Other 1
Later on the respondents are asked if they are going to vote for Plaid Cymru.
In practice, I expect an overwhelming Stay In vote anyway.
However it looks as if only 26% (instead of 32%) of the 2010 Lab switch to the SNP.
Though it is a small change it makes a big difference.
My Scottish scenario now looks like this:
Con 1
Lab 11
LD 3
SNP 44
My own view is that while fast zombies would indeed lead to a full on Zombie Apocalypse, slow zombies would be more likely to just cull the idiots and lead to a stronger, healthier humanity.
I was canvassed on Saturday by the Tory candidate: he was very clued up about tactical voting options and came across as very nice and was even complimentary about the Lib Dem candidate, Maajid Nawaz.
The mansion tax - if levied on houses worth, say, £1 mio or more (or even lower) - would be a huge issue - but not I think at the £2 mio level. Some may change their vote but not enough to make a difference. And the corollary is that there are a lot of people - myself included - who worry about where their children will live and how the hell they will be able to afford it - an issue to which no party seems to have a sensible answer.
I hope the Tory can defy expectations and win the seat, but unless there is a slip from Labour about lowering the mansion tax threshold that the Tories can seize on then I'm not sure it is on the cards.
Gareth Bale... sob...
Perhaps he could end up at Spurs yet ....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32133185
San Antonio Spurs.
None.
Why is his party so ashamed to talk about him?
But the main reason I think Labour will win is the collapse in the LD vote in the constituency, as evidenced by the results in the local elections where our very strongly LD ward lost all but 1 of its councillors. Indeed, we now have the only LD councillor in Camden. Labour will likely win by default, though they have - as far as I can tell - been the laziest in terms of canvassing.