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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s progr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t
Nearly 20% of the YouGov respondents watched Thursday’s programme, whereas around only 5% of the public actually watched the programme so this might be what may be somewhat over amplifying Ed’s performance and the Labour lead.
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I don't get why NZ put McCullum in at number 2. He is their most important bat and they were against a proper side. They should have held him back till 4th bat and let the openers take the shine off. It;s a World Cup Final and they played it like a county match.
49 hours
In today's YouGov - leader ratings (net) vs decided how to vote?'definitely/nearer time':
Cameron: -3 / +8
Miliband: -24 / -41
Those who have yet to make up their minds don't appear to be big Ed fans......
Getting to quite a substantial position now, -2.7k on Tories, + 4.7k on Labour. I think of it as a hedge against my equity investments should Labour win.
Just a depressing outcome for the UK though. Still if thats what people vote for thats what they deserve!
Can anyone find the link to the t'Economist article please...?
Something's amiss - where's the subtle pop music reference?
I haven't been labelled as a "socialist" on PB since some wit thought my view that Michael Howard stalked Folkestone churches for grave robbing showed I was being briefed by Millbank to post for the Labour party.
Can't see it happening though, but if the polls keep going in Labour's favour, then the SNP vote in Scotland may be vulnerable.
Note that the subject is "UK" not "England". A lesson learned me-thinks....
If we make Scotland retrospectively Independent to 1980 then the figures add up ('geographical share of oil'), but then they wouldn't have had Mrs Thatcher either - so where are the assumptions to end?
https://fullfact.org/factchecks/does_scotland_contribute_more_in_taxes_than_rest_of_uk-34755
Maybe Ashcroft or someone could do a Panetta-Burns-style placebo poll and see how many people claim to have watched a debate that didn't actually happen.
Vettel at 2.88 may be decent bet
I'm not saying Yougov is infested with Labourites, more that their panellists are neds who (a) can be bothered to waste their evenings filling out online surveys and (b) can be bothered to waste their evenings watching shows like last Thursdays.
I hardly think it is a surprise that the sort of people who spend their evenings filling out online surveys and watching politics shows also warm to Ed Miliband as that is exactly the sort of person that Ed Miliband comes over as.
Coming up next, survey of heavy smokers impressed with Kenneth Clarke interview?
Stuck in one of slowest cars in race and now retired
I hope Malcolm, Dair or any of our NAT chums enjoyed their wee rally at the SECC yesterday. I was interested to hear the FM setting out her stall to become Prime Minister, given that the English voters apparently love her and consider her the best politician in the UK.
I have just been warned by Al-Beeb that I need to have a TV-licence to watch a Grand-Prix on the t'Internet. The fact that myself and my Serbian princess are paying for two licences shows what a wankfest the state-propaganda (Gruaniad/Labour) system is.
Time for a cull....
:bunch-of-[MODERATED]s:
Could be good as Vettel has to run hard tyres yet which look much slower
Nobody is sat hunched over their computers taking YouGov survey's all evening... though a worrying number might be sat hunched over their computers reading PB.com all day...
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/sinister-conservative-dirty-tricks-campaign-5420141
And no, I don't condone the action - but as yea sow....
Good Morning "Friendly Highlander"
Any thoughts on the absence from the field of the SNP that you have reported in your seat?
Are they in complete thrall to the noble Viscount and his magnificent beard?
(a) You enjoy spending your time doing such surveys
(b) You have enough spare time to spend a reasonable chunk of it doing such surveys
(c) You are motivated to spend a good few hours doing this for the relatively small rewards on offer (ie you need the money)
I don't think that makes your a typical voter.
(a) would indicate a much higher than average interest in current affairs
(b) would suggest you are either single, unemployed, under employed or a pensioner.
(c) would suggest you are either unemployed, underemployed, in a low wage job or a pensioner.
All of which are subsamples of the population that would be likely to indentify more with Miliband (although a lot of pensioners will vote Tory).
Years ago I joined their panel for a while but just didn't have the patience for regular mind numbing surveys on various topics so left before I had a political survey.
My gut feeling is that they have done well to date by weighting based on various factors such as how their panel previously voted, however the major change in the voting patterns in this election across so many areas will make life very difficult for them if they are starting from a panel that represents certain types of people more heavily. Certainly if they do get this election right they will have had a touch of genius, but I also recall the Scottish referendum.
That said Cameron did not do a superb job in his Paxman interview and coupled with his own goal over two terms and the Bercow stupidity, the Leadership of the Conservatives are handing the advantage over to Labour.
Con +2
Lab +15
LD +31
Ukip +2
Lab10 +17
Men +8
Women +13
Changes in Dave's approval since last week
Con -1
Lab +12
LD +13
Ukip +9
C10 +6
Men +7
Women -1
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ao7qcdoada/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-200315.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2ymqcmfu9d/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-280315.pdf
Last election?
Thing is he needed to so something 2 years before the election rather than 5 weeks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11501248/David-Cameron-My-plan-to-win-back-disgruntled-Tories.html
Scotland/England:
Cameron: 34 / 43
Sturgeon: 52 / 18
Miliband: 32 / 29
Sturgeon: 53 / 24
Clegg: 22 / 26
Sturgeon: 58 / 31
Cameron's odious neo con foreign policy has always been his soft underbelly. Ed will do well to continue to harp on about Syria, Libya and the Ukraine. Will stop a lot of people, including myself, from voting Conservative.
I wonder if someone rather better at stats than me could figure out the "deadening" impact on volatility that it will have.
I'm assuming, as per @NickPalmer, that committed politicos have already made up their mind while normal people are just beginning to figure out there's an election on. This might explain the uncanny stability of the poll sequence
As for Holyrood , LOL have you ever looked at the dullards they have there. There are none so blind as those who will not see. The merde is about to be flushed.
Not like you.
Give it a couple of days and polling normality will be resumed with YG.
Lest we forget, Opinium (definite voters) = Con 36 Lab 31.8
I'd have rather he argued that Miliband is a hypocrite and a liar and therefore unfit to be PM
The Middle East is a bad place, with nothing but bad choices avaliable. Its descent into barbarism seems inevitable. The only civilised place is Israel. I am glad I saw Egypt before Islamic State take over there and destroy the antiquities.
There were no good options in Syria, Yemen or Libya. Just very bad ones, I do not blame our leaders for trying to get a civilised regime in these places, but it was always going to be a long shot.
I suspect the time will come when we have to shoot the rabid dog of Islamism. It will require some serious force and we will need our NATO allies to do so.
none of this regime change to enable the decent folk there to implement a liberal democracy malarky any more.
There is a huge danger of getting the direction of causation wrong here. It is perfectly credible to think Tory supporters were simply less likely to bother to watch an event that their leader deliberately played down, and where their leader was a relatively known quantity against the relative void of an opposition leader.
Perhaps more clearly, someone further down the thread suggested the Lib Dems' relatively poorer performance in the poll of debate viewers was due to their absence meaning they lost support among viewers. Yet I'd suggest it's much more likely that a lot of the more solid Lib Dems simply chose not to watch the event precisely because the Lib Dems weren't there - in much the same way as Arsenal fans not being so likely to watch a Man City v Chelsea match as supporters of those teams.
Perhaps you are surprised governments engage in propaganda but it has always been apparent. I am not surprised governments have had to respond to the Hasbara phenomenon.
This is certainly a speech Ed could copy. Perhaps a bit too patriotic though.
https://youtu.be/gnHPmcUgfRU
You can select captions if you don't understand German.
I speculated unreasonably early (thanks to the cricket) on the previous thread that there had to come a point when the complacency bubble burst. Could be a good thing for the Tories in the long run. Bit like that poll in the referendum.
I have taken some profit Laid Tories at 1.5 backed at 1.6.
Next couple of polls important i reckon back to neck and neck prior to easter
I do agree though that it is a good thing for the Tories, I have them to win a minority and I am not unhappy with that bet.
"Surprised so called 'gay marriage' hasn't been the cornerstone of Dave's re-election bid."
Not as stupid a suggestion as you were intending it to be. It took Cameron and Hilton quite a few years to prove that hippydom didn't totally pass the Tories by who could be caring sharing people not ashamed of their feminine side like normal people....
So what happens six weeks before the election? Straight from Maggies playbook up pops Mr 80's Tory boy himself. Just in time to remind those who'd ALMOST forgotten what it was about Tories that turned them off.......... and with a personal endorsement from Cammo himself
As Beverley Turner in the Telegrah so well described this second coming....
"The only female presence in this sorry tale comes from blurry profile shots through rainy windows of Clarkson’s girlfriend Phillipa Sage arriving to comfort her chastened lover........He was a slobbering, greedy mutt who’d happily have licked his own balls to raise eyebrows on The One Show"
Judging by stock levels, labour have only sold 1 "economic foundation" mug, vs 5 for NHS, and 47 immigration ones https://shop.labour.org.uk/products/pledge-1-mug-a-strong-economic-foundation-548/ … and unbelievably it is real
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/labours-anti-immigrant-mug-worst-part-it-isnt-gaffe
Cameron has a reputation for being at his best when his back is against the wall and cruising when it isn't. This would be a good time to start living up to that reputation.
I agree with Charles. Paxman was very rude to call Miliband a North London Geek to his face, he should have concentrated on policy. Miliband was condemning nearly everything his party did in 97 to 2010, when he was part of it. We needed to know what he would do differently.
It reminded me of a Khymer Rouge leader being interviewed in the early eighties. Asked what he regretted about his time in power, he replied "we should have moved against our enemies more quickly".