Also regular pay (ie not bonuses) increased relatively sharply (note relative, still weak) in April (yoy) when compared with Feb/Mar. This was the case in virtually all sectors of the economy, including to a smaller degree, the public sector.
Suggests bosses were squeezing pay as much as possible either side of xmas and unleashed the taps (relatively) in April.
Once the threat of the triple dip recession was ruled out and the double dip was revised out, companies felt a bit more confident about spending some of their stockpiled cash?
The problem is that they are helping the management, not helping the patients ...
Can anyone give a good reason why such gagging orders are a) just, b) good for patients and c) good for taxpayers?
I can't see a *good* reason for gagging clauses in the public sector. They are used to cover up bad practice, bad management behaviour, failing employee conduct and embarrassing incidents.
I can understand why they're used in the private sector to *make problems go away* from a PR perspective - but the public sector is IMO a different kettle of fish - its public money and a public service that requires transparency.
I was party to a compromise agreement in the public sector because they didn't want me spilling beans. Should that have been allowed? I don't think so - but they paid me well to keep quiet.
The problem is that they are helping the management, not helping the patients ...
Can anyone give a good reason why such gagging orders are a) just, b) good for patients and c) good for taxpayers?
a) no. b) no. c) No.
what is remarkable is that they are not even enforceable because s43J of the ERA provides that any clause that prevents a whistleblower from taking action, including making a claim, in respect of a protected disclosure is void.
So who authorised and signed off on this "stop the embarrassment" agreements? It really should be a disciplinary matter for them.
OT TV question. I'm thinking of getting X-Files and Ally McBeal - the two series that were very popular and I never watched bar the odd clip.
I've heard both went downhill in later series - but were very strong otherwise. Any thoughts?
Firstly, I don't see how £9k in three years is a big deal re Ed Balls
Secondly, "Freaks & Geeks" is a great US tv series. Only lasted one season I think but I loved it, and many of the cast and directors have gone on to bigger things (James Franco, Seth Rogen, Linda Cardellini, Judd Apatow)
@tim - The monthly figures are always a bit volatile and are based on a partial sample. The fact that the 'Economic Inactivity Rate' fell in April and the number of Jobseeker's Allowance claimants also fell in May suggests there's no underlying increase in unemployment, more likely a small fall back from the peak.
Employment of over-65s passed 1million for the first time ever in April. Employment of over 65s is growing much faster as a % than any other age group and accounts for about a quarter of all jobs growth. At current rates employment of over 65s will pass 10% for the first time ever some time later this year.
To paraphrase Sir Humphrey. Secrecy is there to protect officials and their political masters. IMO the costs of gagging clauses should be recovered from the personal assets of trust directors or whoever signed off on them.
The problem is that they are helping the management, not helping the patients ...
Can anyone give a good reason why such gagging orders are a) just, b) good for patients and c) good for taxpayers?
a) no. b) no. c) No.
what is remarkable is that they are not even enforceable because s43J of the ERA provides that any clause that prevents a whistleblower from taking action, including making a claim, in respect of a protected disclosure is void.
So who authorised and signed off on this "stop the embarrassment" agreements? It really should be a disciplinary matter for them.
OT TV question. I'm thinking of getting X-Files and Ally McBeal - the two series that were very popular and I never watched bar the odd clip.
I've heard both went downhill in later series - but were very strong otherwise. Any thoughts?
Firstly, I don't see how £9k in three years is a big deal re Ed Balls
Secondly, "Freaks & Geeks" is a great US tv series. Only lasted one season I think but I loved it, and many of the cast and directors have gone on to bigger things (James Franco, Seth Rogen, Linda Cardellini, Judd Apatow)
10,000 people being made unemployed every working day for the whole of April and we never even noticed at the time (and more remarkably, JSA claimants fell by a few thousand.
Of course, monthly unemployment figures might not be reported as a National Statistic because as they say
"However, the data for any given single month is unlikely to be representative of the UK. These sampling effects can cause movements in the single month that are a consequence of the survey nature of the LFS and are not a true reflection of change in the wider economy."
Also if you look at the data, for January to April, monthly unemployment was
Employment of over-65s passed 1million for the first time ever in April.
Recent DWP figures showed that 2010/11 saw the first real reduction in pensioner incomes in many years. Presumably at least some of these people are taking on or staying in jobs to stay afloat.
Employment of over-65s passed 1million for the first time ever in April. Employment of over 65s is growing much faster as a % than any other age group and accounts for about a quarter of all jobs growth. At current rates employment of over 65s will pass 10% for the first time ever some time later this year.
Massive demographic shift
I assume that a chunk of that is the banning of ageism re retirement? I know many near retirement folks who'd much rather carry on working for the social aspect of their lives than retire and end up veging on the sofa - that hasn't been available until fairly recently and of course the economy may be encouraging more to stay on to build up nest eggs or pay for their kids.
Firstly, I don't see how £9k in three years is a big deal re Ed Balls
Nobody does. Except the people who see MP's and assistants logging on to facebook as a story. Which is also mind numbingly stupid for obvious reasons
David Cameron orders online campaign against opponents of a referendum Email, Twitter and Facebook messages aimed at Labour and Lib Dems
What do the Mail and their idiot ciphers think happens? Trumpeting a facebook campaign on one page then criticising MP's for logging on to facebook on another page
Lets not forget why this story came out - Tom "strategic genius" Watson went on a fishing expedition with a FOI request.
Recent DWP figures showed that 2010/11 saw the first real reduction in pensioner incomes in many years. Presumably at least some of these people are taking on or staying in jobs to stay afloat.
Perhaps also deferring retirement (or at least full retirement) because annuity rates are so pitiful.
In addition there has been a change of attitude in response to improving health in the over-sixties. Obviously that's a long-term trend, but I think there has been a particularly high degree of publicity about this in the last two or three years, and that may be influencing behaviour.
It's important to remember that the falling share of labor income is different from a rising level of wage inequality. The share of income going to labor as a whole is falling, and also a greater share of labor income is going to those at the highest levels of income. Both trends mean that those with lower- and middle-incomes are having a tougher time.
It's not obvious what we can do about it since, as he also notes:
However, it's worth remembering that the falling share of labor income has been happening all over the world, in countries with a very wide range of different policies and economic institutions. For example, European labor market institutions are often thought of as being more worker-friendly, but they haven't prevented a fall in the labor share of income.
This is going to lead to trouble if it is not addressed, but it is a slightly larger issue than the ones our politicians are used to tackling.
There's some pretty bad news in the employment numbers today.
Monthly unemployment figure for April is horrendous after a very good March.
Tories all over twitter celebrating zillions of McJobs and showing off their usual statistical illiteracy on the overall employment rate (went down and still way down on levels seen under Labour).
If you look under claimant count and vacancies in the ONS data sets you see that the ratio of claimant to vacancy fell to 4.9 in the last entry which is the lowest since March 2009. For no doubt good statistical reasons the very last entry has not yet been calculated but with claimants down and vacancies up it is likely to improve yet futher: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/june-2013/table-vacs01.xls
I'm sure all of those are factors, but it still represents a massive demographic shift and one that has been developing fairly consistently for a decade at least. The % increase over the last year is almost identical for men and women as well.
Interestingly unemployment of over 65s shows no trend, which suggests oldies get a job if they need one (or keep the one they have), or the ONS has a gaping hole in its methodology.
For those wondering if the CoE was any better without the Arch Druid - this made me smile
" What is the correct and proper manner in which to address the Archbishop of Canterbury? According to one of his priests, the Rev Marcus Ramshaw, it’s not a term you will find in Crockford’s Clerical Directory. Ramshaw was angered by Justin Welby’s continued opposition to gay marriage and remarked online: “I think he is a w*****.”
This brought a swift response from the Church of England’s director of communications, Arun Arora, with possibly my favourite quote of all time. Chiding Ramshaw, he said: “Calling another Christian a w***** does not work for me as a priestly response.”
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 2007 half UK gilts bought by pension funds/insurance. 2012 down to 22%. BoE now buying lions share. Ominous?
Sod all to do with market confidence in Osborne.
Of course that is part of the reason why bond yields are low, but if the market didn't have confidence in Osborne they'd be taking advantage of QE by differentially selling UK bonds in favour of other government bonds in large numbers, which they are not, and they'd also be selling sterling.
Yields are going to rise, though. This has already started (largely as a result of the expectation that the Fed will start easing off QE). There's certainly no room for complacency - we still have massively too much government borrowing. That article by the Fink which Plato quoted at 9.16 is spot-on: 2015 forecast spending 43% of GDP, revenues 38%. There is no money left.
There's some pretty bad news in the employment numbers today.
Monthly unemployment figure for April is horrendous after a very good March.
Tories all over twitter celebrating zillions of McJobs and showing off their usual statistical illiteracy on the overall employment rate (went down and still way down on levels seen under Labour).
Clutching at straws, really.
What are "Mcjobs?"
If you support Labour they are self employed people, if you support Tories they are public sector workers
OT TV question. I'm thinking of getting X-Files and Ally McBeal - the two series that were very popular and I never watched bar the odd clip.
I've heard both went downhill in later series - but were very strong otherwise. Any thoughts?
Firstly, I don't see how £9k in three years is a big deal re Ed Balls
Secondly, "Freaks & Geeks" is a great US tv series. Only lasted one season I think but I loved it, and many of the cast and directors have gone on to bigger things (James Franco, Seth Rogen, Linda Cardellini, Judd Apatow)
OT TV question. I'm thinking of getting X-Files and Ally McBeal - the two series that were very popular and I never watched bar the odd clip.
I've heard both went downhill in later series - but were very strong otherwise. Any thoughts?
Firstly, I don't see how £9k in three years is a big deal re Ed Balls
Secondly, "Freaks & Geeks" is a great US tv series. Only lasted one season I think but I loved it, and many of the cast and directors have gone on to bigger things (James Franco, Seth Rogen, Linda Cardellini, Judd Apatow)
Wonderful, wonderful good news in the ONS Labour Statistics today.
What is especially encouraging is that recent labour market surveys have been reporting flat figures in April with increases in employment planned for May and beyond.
Take Reed's survey of the jobs market published on 3rd June for example:
The UK job market is at it healthiest since 2008 following a record surge in new positions across all sectors, according to a report by recruitment firm Reed.
Reed's Job Index, which is compiled using data from over 10,000 employers, said there were 8% more job opportunities on offer in May than in April. Annually, growth in new positions is currently over 17%.
The report said there were more opportunities for jobseekers in over 90% of the UK’s employment sectors last month compared with April, with one in four sectors making over 10% more jobs available.
Reed's Chairman, John Reed, confirmed the findings with his comment: "In line with the season, the jobs market has bloomed this spring after steadying in April. We are particularly encouraged by the fact that the majority of employment sectors are showing growth."
So to see positive movements in the three month average to April bodes well for future figures and underlines the trend of a rapidly improving house building led Osborne recovery.
All but McBen and Mctim will be dancing in the streets at this news.
OT TV question. I'm thinking of getting X-Files and Ally McBeal - the two series that were very popular and I never watched bar the odd clip.
I've heard both went downhill in later series - but were very strong otherwise. Any thoughts?
Firstly, I don't see how £9k in three years is a big deal re Ed Balls
Secondly, "Freaks & Geeks" is a great US tv series. Only lasted one season I think but I loved it, and many of the cast and directors have gone on to bigger things (James Franco, Seth Rogen, Linda Cardellini, Judd Apatow)
Im not a big tv series watcher.. what to compare it to??? I really fdont know
The main character is a 17(?) yr old bright girl who was a mathelete but is knocking about with slackers (freaks)
Her brother is one of the Dungeons & Dragon playing geeks
I just thought it was a lovely show.. funny, sad, great soundtrack. A real hidden gem
I noticed it only ran for 1 season - that's weird
Yeah its incredible really. I hadn't seen the imdb reviews before, but 8.9/10 is pretty impressive.
I would say it is one off the top thee tv shows I have ever watched, and as I said, many of the people involved have gone on to be in big Hollywood films since.
I have the series on DVD but my new player wont play American region! bah!
MichaelWhite @MichaelWhite #PMQs Cam cites 1.5 million more private sector jobs, 500k fewer public, since 2010. Suspect stats, they inc jobs transferred from publicSec
Tory Treasury @MichaelWhite no they don't - 1.37m private sector jobs over last 3 years even after excluding reclassifications
Today's job and bonus talk just emphasises the biggest on-going problem this country is going to face: how do we sustain a society in which only a small minority enjoys increasing standards of living while the overwhelming majority see theirs either stagnating or falling? What we seem to be facing is a joyless (except for a few) recovery, in which people are forced to do jobs they hate for money they struggle to get by on. It is not a happy prospect. None of our politica parties seem to have a solutions as yet. They need to start thinking about getting some or things could get very nasty for all of us; including those at the top who are currently doing very well.
Some measured and balanced comments on the employment figures by economists at Barclays:
“The headline numbers of this month’s labour market release reiterate a positive message with unemployment falling slightly and employment increasing. In addition, earnings growth firmed up against expectations of further weakening.
“However, a couple of less upbeat messages emerge when looking deeper into the data. Firstly, the pace of increases in employment remains significantly lower than what we saw last year. Taken together with the weakness in productivity of UK firms, this suggests that there is limited scope for the headline unemployment rate to experience a fall similar to that seen last year.
“Secondly, the improvement in earnings growth was driven by bonus pay and core average weekly earnings growth remains close to record lows. As prices continue to increase faster than earnings by some margin still, the already prolonged period of negative real pay growth seems set to continue and is likely to remain a hurdle to further improvements in consumer demand.”
Still the current position is better than that being predicted earlier this year when umemployment was forecast to rise through the year rather than merely fall at a slower rate.
Today's job and bonus talk just emphasises the biggest on-going problem this country is going to face: how do we sustain a society in which only a small minority enjoys increasing standards of living while the overwhelming majority see theirs either stagnating or falling? What we seem to be facing is a joyless (except for a few) recovery, in which people are forced to do jobs they hate for money they struggle to get by on. It is not a happy prospect. None of our politica parties seem to have a solutions as yet. They need to start thinking about getting some or things could get very nasty for all of us; including those at the top who are currently doing very well.
"people are forced to do jobs they hate for money they struggle to get by on. It is not a happy prospect"
OT TV question. I'm thinking of getting X-Files and Ally McBeal - the two series that were very popular and I never watched bar the odd clip.
I've heard both went downhill in later series - but were very strong otherwise. Any thoughts?
Firstly, I don't see how £9k in three years is a big deal re Ed Balls
Secondly, "Freaks & Geeks" is a great US tv series. Only lasted one season I think but I loved it, and many of the cast and directors have gone on to bigger things (James Franco, Seth Rogen, Linda Cardellini, Judd Apatow)
Im not a big tv series watcher.. what to compare it to??? I really fdont know
The main character is a 17(?) yr old bright girl who was a mathelete but is knocking about with slackers (freaks)
Her brother is one of the Dungeons & Dragon playing geeks
I just thought it was a lovely show.. funny, sad, great soundtrack. A real hidden gem
I noticed it only ran for 1 season - that's weird
Yeah its incredible really. I hadn't seen the imdb reviews before, but 8.9/10 is pretty impressive.
I would say it is one off the top thee tv shows I have ever watched, and as I said, many of the people involved have gone on to be in big Hollywood films since.
I have the series on DVD but my new player wont play American region! bah!
@SouthamObserver While the pay might not be what people hope for, what evidence do you have that most or many people hate their jobs, or do so more than they did previously?
@SouthamObserver While the pay might not be what people hope for, what evidence do you have that most or many people hate their jobs, or do so more than they did previously?
@Socrates That link brings back too many sessions that I've been forced to endure on the wishlists of Generation Y. It's interesting though - do we do less satisfying work or do we have higher expectations than our forebears? I expect that it's mainly the latter.
Today's job and bonus talk just emphasises the biggest on-going problem this country is going to face: how do we sustain a society in which only a small minority enjoys increasing standards of living while the overwhelming majority see theirs either stagnating or falling? What we seem to be facing is a joyless (except for a few) recovery, in which people are forced to do jobs they hate for money they struggle to get by on. It is not a happy prospect. None of our politica parties seem to have a solutions as yet. They need to start thinking about getting some or things could get very nasty for all of us; including those at the top who are currently doing very well.
"people are forced to do jobs they hate for money they struggle to get by on. It is not a happy prospect"
Hasn't that always been the way for many people?
Since WW2 living standards for the majority have consistently improved, but that process has ground to a halt over the last decade or so. There seems to be no prospect of that changing. History suggests that stagnating or falling incomes for the majority is not a sustainable situation.
Some measured and balanced comments on the employment figures by economists at Barclays:
“Secondly, the improvement in earnings growth was driven by bonus pay and core average weekly earnings growth remains close to record lows. As prices continue to increase faster than earnings by some margin still, the already prolonged period of negative real pay growth seems set to continue and is likely to remain a hurdle to further improvements in consumer demand.”
Here is the big political problem for the Coalition. All this frothy news is well and good but it's not translating into direct improvement in the economic prospects for individuals and families (voters) as the next GE approaches.
For many, if not most people the economic picture remains weak if not stagnant at best and downright lousy at worst. People are not better off and do not feel better off and until they do, the blandishments of UKIP and Labour will be attractive.
@Socrates That link brings back too many sessions that I've been forced to endure on the wishlists of Generation Y. It's interesting though - do we do less satisfying work or do we have higher expectations than our forebears? I expect that it's mainly the latter.
If you are seeing your living standards improve you can tolerate a dreary job much more easily.
The issue about pay stagnation is really collateral damage from globalisation.
We can't uninvent jetplanes or container ships or the internet. And, whether any one country likes it or not, the international world of competing economies and cultures is utterly Darwinian.
To survive and get ahead you must compete. The West got rather used to decades of an easy life before this all exploded. No more. I suspect the future for the fat, lazy or stupid of the west will in future look pretty much the same as for the fat, lazy or stupid anywhere else. Which for our 'uncompetitives' means a huge step backwards and for those of the developing world potentially a huge step forwards until they all meet in the middle.
If we can't compete on wages then we must compete on value added somewhere else higher up the value chain. Inevitably this means the professional classes are generally doing fine and the low skilled are taking a beating. Welcome to the jungle.
We reap the whirlwind of 13 years' determined dumbing down.
Labour is up one point since May to 35 per cent, giving them a mere four-point lead over the Conservatives, who are unchanged at 31. The Lib-Dems are unchanged at 10 and Ukip are down one to 12.
Philip Collins has some interesting thoughts as a former Labour man
"This has not been a week the two Eds thought they would ever be forced to have. They imagined they would be proved right about austerity, allaying fears about Labour profligacy. They thought the political victory thus won would translate into anger at the cuts and a different mood towards their victims. If in October 2010 Mr Balls and Mr Miliband had been shown the texts they delivered this week, they would have reacted in a Brown-on- Blair way, dismissing them for conceding too much political ground to the right.
...One interpretation is that this week has been a defensive reaction to Labour’s poor showing in the local elections, an opinion poll rating that has stalled and awful numbers for its leader. Either that, or Mr Miliband has moved to avoid a trap on welfare that has been set for him by Mr Osborne...
There is truth in all of these reasons but not the whole truth. Mr Balls and Mr Miliband are both lieutenants of Mr Brown and there is in the latter’s missing plan a clue to Labour’s slow creep to the centre. On foundation trust hospitals, pension reform, academies, identity cards and tuition fees, Mr Brown let it be known that he disagreed with Mr Blair’s policy. He implied, without ever specifying his alternative, that his own view would be morally superior. Then he would say “no” all the way up to the point that he was forced to say “yes” because he couldn’t think of anything else..." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/philipcollins/article3784712.ece
Of the four main party leaders, only Ukip’s Nigel Farage has a positive rating, with 38 per cent satisfied with his performance. Mr Miliband is the least unpopular of the other three, but his rating has deteriorated in the past month. More people are satisfied with Mr Cameron (34 per cent) but more are also dissatisfied with him, 58 per cent.
and
However, the poll has a sting in the tail for the Tory minister — because it reveals that his rival Ed Balls, Labour’s shadow chancellor, is beating him by 38 per cent to 35 as the one thought most capable at running the nation’s finances.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Ipsos-MORI blow for Osborne. Ed Balls is beating him by 38% to 35% as the one thought most capable at running the nation’s finances.
He is the most toxic politician in the country though Mike. Everyone knows that
He is Piers Fletcher-Dervish's snidey older brother
The issue about pay stagnation is really collateral damage from globalisation.
We can't uninvent jetplanes or container ships or the internet. And, whether any one country likes it or not, the international world of competing economies and cultures is utterly Darwinian.
To survive and get ahead you must compete. The West got rather used to decades of an easy life before this all exploded. No more. I suspect the future for the fat, lazy or stupid of the west will in future look pretty much the same as for the fat, lazy or stupid anywhere else. Which for our 'uncompetitives' means a huge step backwards and for those of the developing world potentially a huge step forwards until they all meet in the middle.
If we can't compete on wages then we must compete on value added somewhere else higher up the value chain. Inevitably this means the professional classes are generally doing fine and the low skilled are taking a beating. Welcome to the jungle.
We reap the whirlwind of 13 years' determined dumbing down.
That does seem to be a popular right-wing view. But whether people will buy it is another thing entirely. Telling people who work long hours for pay which does little more than allow them to scrape by that they are reaping the rewards of being fat, lazy and/or stupid may not be a sustainable political message.
Overall PMQ's,not just to ed,I thought Cameron again was on top form,infact I started to look for the first time at labour policies/rants and thought,how poor they are.
Today's job and bonus talk just emphasises the biggest on-going problem this country is going to face: how do we sustain a society in which only a small minority enjoys increasing standards of living while the overwhelming majority see theirs either stagnating or falling? What we seem to be facing is a joyless (except for a few) recovery, in which people are forced to do jobs they hate for money they struggle to get by on. It is not a happy prospect. None of our politica parties seem to have a solutions as yet. They need to start thinking about getting some or things could get very nasty for all of us; including those at the top who are currently doing very well.
"people are forced to do jobs they hate for money they struggle to get by on. It is not a happy prospect"
Hasn't that always been the way for many people?
Anecdote alert, but my impression from discussions with older professional people like solicitors and accountants is that they derived far more job satisfaction, 20 to 30 years ago, than they do today. Not only was it easier to make money, the degree of regulation was vastly less. A lot of people now feel like unpaid civil servants.
For many, if not most people the economic picture remains weak if not stagnant at best and downright lousy at worst. People are not better off and do not feel better off and until they do, the blandishments of UKIP and Labour will be attractive.
Indeed. This is the reality in the UK:
Britain's workers have suffered more financial pain since 2008 than in any five-year period of the modern age, according to research by a leading tax thinktank that shows employees have sacrificed pay to keep their jobs. Describing this downturn as the longest and deepest slump in a century, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says workers have suffered unprecedented pay cuts of 6% in real terms over the last five years.
That does seem to be a popular right-wing view. But whether people will buy it is another thing entirely. Telling people who work long hours for pay which does little more than allow them to scrape by that they are reaping the rewards of being fat, lazy and/or stupid may not be a sustainable political message.
The problem is, who are the downtrodden going to take it out on, should it come to 'anger'? The feckless people down the street, with six kids and a drug habit, or the millionaire banker in Davos?
Living standards are falling but only because we never actually earned the standard of living we gave ourselves in the years 2002-2008. Instead we boosted consumption by borrowing, equity release and unfunded government expenditure while so much capital spending was bought on the never never through PFI.
5 years on and real wages have inevitably fallen from that credit driven balloon economy. This has been hard but it has also been good news as it has massively reduced the otherwise inevitable increase in unemployment.
I agree with some of what @stodge is saying. There is a real risk for the government that this is a voteless recovery with individual families in work seeing very little benefit. I also agree with @SouthamObserver that the benefits of prior growth have been distributed very unevenly as have the hardships of the last 5 years. It is frankly bewildering that the incomes of FTSE senior management have continued to climb so fast when wages have been static for so many.
Sharing what Cameron used to call the fruits of growth will not be easy, not least because we are still running large trade and government deficits and are still living beyond our means. There is no real room for increasing consumption until we can make and sell more. Will people look at the big picture (which is getting better) or their own circumstances (which in many cases are not)? The answer to that question will, in my opinion, decide the next election.
Ed was therefore right in his approach today but the execution was poor and there were a couple of sharp blows to the kidneys which will worry Labour going forward. I suspect this is not the last time a complaint about a cut will be met with Labour's tax avoidance.
The issue about pay stagnation is really collateral damage from globalisation.
We can't uninvent jetplanes or container ships or the internet. And, whether any one country likes it or not, the international world of competing economies and cultures is utterly Darwinian.
To survive and get ahead you must compete. The West got rather used to decades of an easy life before this all exploded. No more. I suspect the future for the fat, lazy or stupid of the west will in future look pretty much the same as for the fat, lazy or stupid anywhere else. Which for our 'uncompetitives' means a huge step backwards and for those of the developing world potentially a huge step forwards until they all meet in the middle.
If we can't compete on wages then we must compete on value added somewhere else higher up the value chain. Inevitably this means the professional classes are generally doing fine and the low skilled are taking a beating. Welcome to the jungle.
We reap the whirlwind of 13 years' determined dumbing down.
That does seem to be a popular right-wing view. But whether people will buy it is another thing entirely. Telling people who work long hours for pay which does little more than allow them to scrape by that they are reaping the rewards of being fat, lazy and/or stupid may not be a sustainable political message.
There are fat, lazy, and stupid Westerners, but I doubt if many of them are the sort of people who find themselves working longer hours to maintain the same level of pay.
It is terribly easy for people who are doing well out of the system to think that people who aren't are to blame for their predicament.
I think we got into the mindset of believing that we were entitled to a particular standard of living, but that's not the same thing.
Some measured and balanced comments on the employment figures by economists at Barclays:
“Secondly, the improvement in earnings growth was driven by bonus pay and core average weekly earnings growth remains close to record lows. As prices continue to increase faster than earnings by some margin still, the already prolonged period of negative real pay growth seems set to continue and is likely to remain a hurdle to further improvements in consumer demand.”
Here is the big political problem for the Coalition. All this frothy news is well and good but it's not translating into direct improvement in the economic prospects for individuals and families (voters) as the next GE approaches.
For many, if not most people the economic picture remains weak if not stagnant at best and downright lousy at worst. People are not better off and do not feel better off and until they do, the blandishments of UKIP and Labour will be attractive.
Of course, stodge and this is the reason that Ed Miliband tried to focus on falls in living standards in this week's PMQs. This is a problem the Coalition won't and can't solve in the time left before 2015
However, voters are not completely dumb. Eradicating the deficit on the back of competitive growth rates is creating the foundations for slowly redressing the gap in living standards. Income levels will rise with productivity gains but the immediate priority is wider employment. Fiscal consolidation and multi-sector deleveraging will also eventually lead to balanced budgets and surplus revenues which can be used to improve living standards by reducing tax burdens and accelerating growth through increased investment.
Voters will have to ask themselves whether they are closer to this nirvana in 2015 than they were in 2010.
As for the economic picture remaining "weak if not stagnant", this is really not the case today in the UK.
Take the view of the markets as proof:
The U.K. currency strengthened against most of its 16 major peers as a wider measure of unemployment declined in April, providing further evidence that an economic recovery is under way.
“The pound is outperforming across the board,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “U.K. data continues to point to a recovery. Overseas investors are encouraged by the data and are buying the pound in order to purchase U.K. assets.”
We are getting there. It may be a long journey, but the destination is in sight.
The issue about pay stagnation is really collateral damage from globalisation.
We can't uninvent jetplanes or container ships or the internet. And, whether any one country likes it or not, the international world of competing economies and cultures is utterly Darwinian.
To survive and get ahead you must compete. The West got rather used to decades of an easy life before this all exploded. No more. I suspect the future for the fat, lazy or stupid of the west will in future look pretty much the same as for the fat, lazy or stupid anywhere else. Which for our 'uncompetitives' means a huge step backwards and for those of the developing world potentially a huge step forwards until they all meet in the middle.
If we can't compete on wages then we must compete on value added somewhere else higher up the value chain. Inevitably this means the professional classes are generally doing fine and the low skilled are taking a beating. Welcome to the jungle.
We reap the whirlwind of 13 years' determined dumbing down.
I know this is a drum you bang repeatedly but none of this started on 1st May 1997 when the country apparently voted by a large majority to eschew the light and descend into the stygian pits of Hades.
The "battle for lifestyle" is going to be one of the critical areas of public debate for the next generation. The good old days of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and endlessly-rising asset values died in 2008-09 and what has replaced them seem to many to be a cold and unforgiving place.
Whatever the economic truths, there is a lifestyle to which many cling and many others aspire - telling people that nor only can they no longer keep their lifestyle but their children won't have that lifestylke either is a huge ask for anyone and especially so for a political leader.
It shouldn't be forgotten that those leaders forced to introduce austerity often get very little thanks for it.
The very wealthy are too wealthy theme is on the thread again today. It is the most compelling point the left make. Even as a thatcherite I agree that more wealth should be shared out amongst middle and working class people.
I've never seen a single compelling argument that suggests how we might do that, however.
We've tried higher taxes, and taxes on wealth and land. The money runs offshore. We;ve tried closing loopholes. They keep finding more ones. We've tried ramping up the pressure on havens. There's always some locality somewhere prepared to offer global capital a home.
But I agree with Southam. It's a big problem and it's getting worse. And in the end, too big a cap between worker and tycoon is a recipe for instability or worse.
She was on the national executive of LDYS (ie the young liberals) in the early nineties.
That would make her the first cabinet minister with that on their CV since Peter Hain.
Clegg, Cable, Huhne, Moore, Alexander and Laws all joined the LDs after their 26th birthdays; Davey was never on the national exec, though he was a young liberal.
Comments
Once the threat of the triple dip recession was ruled out and the double dip was revised out, companies felt a bit more confident about spending some of their stockpiled cash?
I can understand why they're used in the private sector to *make problems go away* from a PR perspective - but the public sector is IMO a different kettle of fish - its public money and a public service that requires transparency.
I was party to a compromise agreement in the public sector because they didn't want me spilling beans. Should that have been allowed? I don't think so - but they paid me well to keep quiet.
Suggests that 2013 bonus revenue might beat all of the 50% years ?
The falling rising number .....
what is remarkable is that they are not even enforceable because s43J of the ERA provides that any clause that prevents a whistleblower from taking action, including making a claim, in respect of a protected disclosure is void.
So who authorised and signed off on this "stop the embarrassment" agreements? It really should be a disciplinary matter for them.
much of the overall jobs growth in the three months to April was through self-employment.
Secondly, "Freaks & Geeks" is a great US tv series. Only lasted one season I think but I loved it, and many of the cast and directors have gone on to bigger things (James Franco, Seth Rogen, Linda Cardellini, Judd Apatow)
Employment of over-65s passed 1million for the first time ever in April. Employment of over 65s is growing much faster as a % than any other age group and accounts for about a quarter of all jobs growth. At current rates employment of over 65s will pass 10% for the first time ever some time later this year.
Massive demographic shift
IMO the costs of gagging clauses should be recovered from the personal assets of trust directors or whoever signed off on them.
10,000 people being made unemployed every working day for the whole of April and we never even noticed at the time (and more remarkably, JSA claimants fell by a few thousand.
Of course, monthly unemployment figures might not be reported as a National Statistic because as they say
"However, the data for any given single month is unlikely to be representative of the UK. These sampling effects can cause movements in the single month that are a consequence of the survey nature of the LFS and are not a true reflection of change in the wider economy."
Also if you look at the data, for January to April, monthly unemployment was
8.1%
8.0%
7.4%
8.0%
So no big change other than last month.
As discussed yesterday, we are a long way from being out of the woods, but it's a further step in the right direction.
Lets not forget why this story came out - Tom "strategic genius" Watson went on a fishing expedition with a FOI request.
In addition there has been a change of attitude in response to improving health in the over-sixties. Obviously that's a long-term trend, but I think there has been a particularly high degree of publicity about this in the last two or three years, and that may be influencing behaviour.
[Thanks Socrates for the interesting link]
What are "Mcjobs?"
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Filthy-Weston-hospital-left-man-looking-like/story-19239531-detail/story.html
I'm sure all of those are factors, but it still represents a massive demographic shift and one that has been developing fairly consistently for a decade at least. The % increase over the last year is almost identical for men and women as well.
Interestingly unemployment of over 65s shows no trend, which suggests oldies get a job if they need one (or keep the one they have), or the ONS has a gaping hole in its methodology.
" What is the correct and proper manner in which to address the Archbishop of Canterbury? According to one of his priests, the Rev Marcus Ramshaw, it’s not a term you will find in Crockford’s Clerical Directory. Ramshaw was angered by Justin Welby’s continued opposition to gay marriage and remarked online: “I think he is a w*****.”
This brought a swift response from the Church of England’s director of communications, Arun Arora, with possibly my favourite quote of all time. Chiding Ramshaw, he said: “Calling another Christian a w***** does not work for me as a priestly response.”
He added that it was “outrageous” to suggest that Justin was “an onanist”. http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/article1270868.ece
Yields are going to rise, though. This has already started (largely as a result of the expectation that the Fed will start easing off QE). There's certainly no room for complacency - we still have massively too much government borrowing. That article by the Fink which Plato quoted at 9.16 is spot-on: 2015 forecast spending 43% of GDP, revenues 38%. There is no money left.
"Evil bankers paying more in tax - the swine"
The main character is a 17(?) yr old bright girl who was a mathelete but is knocking about with slackers (freaks)
Her brother is one of the Dungeons & Dragon playing geeks
I just thought it was a lovely show.. funny, sad, great soundtrack. A real hidden gem
What is especially encouraging is that recent labour market surveys have been reporting flat figures in April with increases in employment planned for May and beyond.
Take Reed's survey of the jobs market published on 3rd June for example:
The UK job market is at it healthiest since 2008 following a record surge in new positions across all sectors, according to a report by recruitment firm Reed.
Reed's Job Index, which is compiled using data from over 10,000 employers, said there were 8% more job opportunities on offer in May than in April. Annually, growth in new positions is currently over 17%.
The report said there were more opportunities for jobseekers in over 90% of the UK’s employment sectors last month compared with April, with one in four sectors making over 10% more jobs available.
Reed's Chairman, John Reed, confirmed the findings with his comment: "In line with the season, the jobs market has bloomed this spring after steadying in April. We are particularly encouraged by the fact that the majority of employment sectors are showing growth."
So to see positive movements in the three month average to April bodes well for future figures and underlines the trend of a rapidly improving house building led Osborne recovery.
All but McBen and Mctim will be dancing in the streets at this news.
I would say it is one off the top thee tv shows I have ever watched, and as I said, many of the people involved have gone on to be in big Hollywood films since.
I have the series on DVD but my new player wont play American region! bah!
#PMQs Cam cites 1.5 million more private sector jobs, 500k fewer public, since 2010. Suspect stats, they inc jobs transferred from publicSec
Tory Treasury
@MichaelWhite no they don't - 1.37m private sector jobs over last 3 years even after excluding reclassifications
“The headline numbers of this month’s labour market release reiterate a positive message with unemployment falling slightly and employment increasing. In addition, earnings growth firmed up against expectations of further weakening.
“However, a couple of less upbeat messages emerge when looking deeper into the data. Firstly, the pace of increases in employment remains significantly lower than what we saw last year. Taken together with the weakness in productivity of UK firms, this suggests that there is limited scope for the headline unemployment rate to experience a fall similar to that seen last year.
“Secondly, the improvement in earnings growth was driven by bonus pay and core average weekly earnings growth remains close to record lows. As prices continue to increase faster than earnings by some margin still, the already prolonged period of negative real pay growth seems set to continue and is likely to remain a hurdle to further improvements in consumer demand.”
Still the current position is better than that being predicted earlier this year when umemployment was forecast to rise through the year rather than merely fall at a slower rate.
A clear example of success breeding success.
Hasn't that always been the way for many people?
Viewers:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0903747/
Critics:
http://www.metacritic.com/tv/breaking-bad/season-5
http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/05/news/economy/job_satisfaction_report/
Cameron says Labour “gives tax avoidance advice to their donors” and challenges Miliband to give Mills' donation back polho.me/14VXnhX
@nicholaswatt
PMQs feels a bit 10-nil to @David_Cameron
For many, if not most people the economic picture remains weak if not stagnant at best and downright lousy at worst. People are not better off and do not feel better off and until they do, the blandishments of UKIP and Labour will be attractive.
We can't uninvent jetplanes or container ships or the internet. And, whether any one country likes it or not, the international world of competing economies and cultures is utterly Darwinian.
To survive and get ahead you must compete. The West got rather used to decades of an easy life before this all exploded. No more. I suspect the future for the fat, lazy or stupid of the west will in future look pretty much the same as for the fat, lazy or stupid anywhere else. Which for our 'uncompetitives' means a huge step backwards and for those of the developing world potentially a huge step forwards until they all meet in the middle.
If we can't compete on wages then we must compete on value added somewhere else higher up the value chain. Inevitably this means the professional classes are generally doing fine and the low skilled are taking a beating. Welcome to the jungle.
We reap the whirlwind of 13 years' determined dumbing down.
Poll alert Mori outLabour is up one point since May to 35 per cent, giving them a mere four-point lead over the Conservatives, who are unchanged at 31. The Lib-Dems are unchanged at 10 and Ukip are down one to 12.
"This has not been a week the two Eds thought they would ever be forced to have. They imagined they would be proved right about austerity, allaying fears about Labour profligacy. They thought the political victory thus won would translate into anger at the cuts and a different mood towards their victims. If in October 2010 Mr Balls and Mr Miliband had been shown the texts they delivered this week, they would have reacted in a Brown-on- Blair way, dismissing them for conceding too much political ground to the right.
...One interpretation is that this week has been a defensive reaction to Labour’s poor showing in the local elections, an opinion poll rating that has stalled and awful numbers for its leader. Either that, or Mr Miliband has moved to avoid a trap on welfare that has been set for him by Mr Osborne...
There is truth in all of these reasons but not the whole truth. Mr Balls and Mr Miliband are both lieutenants of Mr Brown and there is in the latter’s missing plan a clue to Labour’s slow creep to the centre. On foundation trust hospitals, pension reform, academies, identity cards and tuition fees, Mr Brown let it be known that he disagreed with Mr Blair’s policy. He implied, without ever specifying his alternative, that his own view would be morally superior. Then he would say “no” all the way up to the point that he was forced to say “yes” because he couldn’t think of anything else..." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/philipcollins/article3784712.ece
and
However, the poll has a sting in the tail for the Tory minister — because it reveals that his rival Ed Balls, Labour’s shadow chancellor, is beating him by 38 per cent to 35 as the one thought most capable at running the nation’s finances.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/britons-less-gloomy-on-economy-but-still-dont-rate-osborne-8655506.html
Indeed. This is the reality in the UK:
Britain's workers have suffered more financial pain since 2008 than in any five-year period of the modern age, according to research by a leading tax thinktank that shows employees have sacrificed pay to keep their jobs.
Describing this downturn as the longest and deepest slump in a century, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says workers have suffered unprecedented pay cuts of 6% in real terms over the last five years.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2013/jun/12/workers-deepest-cuts-real-wages-ifs
We can play the blame game all we want. But at some stage a solution has to be found.
5 years on and real wages have inevitably fallen from that credit driven balloon economy. This has been hard but it has also been good news as it has massively reduced the otherwise inevitable increase in unemployment.
I agree with some of what @stodge is saying. There is a real risk for the government that this is a voteless recovery with individual families in work seeing very little benefit. I also agree with @SouthamObserver that the benefits of prior growth have been distributed very unevenly as have the hardships of the last 5 years. It is frankly bewildering that the incomes of FTSE senior management have continued to climb so fast when wages have been static for so many.
Sharing what Cameron used to call the fruits of growth will not be easy, not least because we are still running large trade and government deficits and are still living beyond our means. There is no real room for increasing consumption until we can make and sell more. Will people look at the big picture (which is getting better) or their own circumstances (which in many cases are not)? The answer to that question will, in my opinion, decide the next election.
Ed was therefore right in his approach today but the execution was poor and there were a couple of sharp blows to the kidneys which will worry Labour going forward. I suspect this is not the last time a complaint about a cut will be met with Labour's tax avoidance.
It is terribly easy for people who are doing well out of the system to think that people who aren't are to blame for their predicament.
I think we got into the mindset of believing that we were entitled to a particular standard of living, but that's not the same thing.
However, voters are not completely dumb. Eradicating the deficit on the back of competitive growth rates is creating the foundations for slowly redressing the gap in living standards. Income levels will rise with productivity gains but the immediate priority is wider employment. Fiscal consolidation and multi-sector deleveraging will also eventually lead to balanced budgets and surplus revenues which can be used to improve living standards by reducing tax burdens and accelerating growth through increased investment.
Voters will have to ask themselves whether they are closer to this nirvana in 2015 than they were in 2010.
As for the economic picture remaining "weak if not stagnant", this is really not the case today in the UK.
Take the view of the markets as proof:
The U.K. currency strengthened against most of its 16 major peers as a wider measure of unemployment declined in April, providing further evidence that an economic recovery is under way.
“The pound is outperforming across the board,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “U.K. data continues to point to a recovery. Overseas investors are encouraged by the data and are buying the pound in order to purchase U.K. assets.”
We are getting there. It may be a long journey, but the destination is in sight.
The "battle for lifestyle" is going to be one of the critical areas of public debate for the next generation. The good old days of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and endlessly-rising asset values died in 2008-09 and what has replaced them seem to many to be a cold and unforgiving place.
Whatever the economic truths, there is a lifestyle to which many cling and many others aspire - telling people that nor only can they no longer keep their lifestyle but their children won't have that lifestylke either is a huge ask for anyone and especially so for a political leader.
It shouldn't be forgotten that those leaders forced to introduce austerity often get very little thanks for it.
I've never seen a single compelling argument that suggests how we might do that, however.
We've tried higher taxes, and taxes on wealth and land. The money runs offshore. We;ve tried closing loopholes. They keep finding more ones. We've tried ramping up the pressure on havens. There's always some locality somewhere prepared to offer global capital a home.
But I agree with Southam. It's a big problem and it's getting worse. And in the end, too big a cap between worker and tycoon is a recipe for instability or worse.
That would make her the first cabinet minister with that on their CV since Peter Hain.
Clegg, Cable, Huhne, Moore, Alexander and Laws all joined the LDs after their 26th birthdays; Davey was never on the national exec, though he was a young liberal.