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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time for the rest of the polling industry to follow Survation and treat UKIP on an equal basis
Last year the newbie pollster which is now picking up an awful lot of business, Survation, caused controversy in the industry by including UKIP in its main voting intention prompt.
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And about time too, for UKIP to be treated as an equal by the pollsters. Mike is absolutely right on this.
Imagine the British government under David
Cameron renegotiated our relationship with
Europe and said that Britain's interests were
now protected, and David Cameron
recommended that Britain remain a member of
the European Union on the new terms.
How would you then vote in a referendum on the
issue?
Would vote for Britain to remain in the European
Union on the new terms: 50(+5)
Would vote for Britain to leave the European Union : 28(-5)
Would not vote: 5(+2)
DK: 17(-2)
The Energy Information Administration estimated there were some 345 billion barrels of "technically recoverable" shale oil reserves in 41 countries.
And some 7,299 trillion cubic feet of shale gas reserves could boost natural gas resources by 47%, the EIA said.
But technically recoverable reserves are not a guaranteed supply.
They are an estimate of how much oil or gas could be extracted using the latest technology and they do not take into account economic viability.
"The reserves are one thing, but the ability to scale up the production for those reserves is another thing, which is not as straightforward in many parts of the world as it has proved to be in the US," said Jan Stuart, head of energy research at Credit Suisse in New York.
For instance, in Poland, which is believed to have much shale potential, several companies have given up shale drilling after early attempts indicated extraction would be difficult.
Shale oil and gas reserves are expected to have a huge impact on the world's energy markets.
A recent report by consultants PwC said that shale oil "has the potential to reshape the global economy, increasing energy security, independence and affordability in the long term".
Last month the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that a steeper-than-expected rise in US shale oil reserves would mean the US would change from the world's leading importer of oil to a net exporter over the next five years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22850607
http://www.xkcd.com/1223/
And who do you think is most to blame for the
current spending cuts?
The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: 24(-5)
The last Labour government: 35(-1)
Both: 29(+6)
Neither: 4(0)
DK: 9(+2)
No shit Sherlock! The kippers are consistently polling way ahead of the yellow peril and are the ones driving the political agenda.
* Lib/Lab/Con/Others, and now UKIP.
Edited:
On reflection as x n increases confidence should also increase, so the answer sould be no.** That said the population being measured is far from normal (next to zero chance that all five observables will approach the mean) so is the effect of increasing x n within the population itself distorting? Where is RodC...?
Edited again:
Ofcourse one would also need to weight the propensity to vote for a particular party in order to place it within a normal distribution. Maybe what is being observed and what we are trying to measure with confidence are completely unattainable in this instance. Another cup of teas methinks....
Edit three:
x = observation,
n = number of observations,
Ergo I was correct with my initial post....
** Number of observations =/= the number of discrete observations being made. Confused myself there.....
Can anyone explain what went wrong here? It describes the parachute opening "the wrong way" or "backwards", and that possibly it was packed wrongly. What does that mean? Was it upside-down, or inside out, or what?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2338988/Base-jumper-cheats-death-leaping-roof-Spanish-hotel-slamming-parachute-opens-wrong-way.html
(when) are UKIP going to change that logo with the pound sign?
It looks a bit 1960s Spa supermarket (with no comment as to whether Kippers look to that period as a golden age....)
Some fly by night operation like Ukip with a membership more full of loonies than the average secure unit and a leader with a penchant for extravagent overcoats. Oh deary me no.
They can't even manage a single MP. No they must wait their turn after Respect. Greens and the sundry Indies.
Next thing they'll be offering pacts to wayward right wing Conservatives at the next election !! .... who do these Kippers think they are - serious players in British politics ?!?
It is a core mid-term response to pollsters.
Just been VI'd by You Gov.
UKIP were still listed alongside Greens, BNP etc
Supplementary questions about the NSA contractor chap and privacy etc.
Time to buy Sony and sell Microsoft.
Sony pretty much killed Microsoft overnight in the new console market with the pricing and other features of their new hardware.
The indirect transfer of English taxes to Scotland should continue after independence says "working-group". SNP seem likely to support the proposal as Scotland has a disproportionate number of jobs tied-up in the scam system.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22850453
Ofcourse they want common-funding but don't want to implement any of the cuts that England may impose. Scottish independence is turning into a farce as, each-and-everyday, another Nat position turns into dependency....
Mr. Pork, I've just being catching up on how the briefing went. It does sound like Sony has, on objective measures, crushed Microsoft.
PS4 is $100/£80 cheaper [both still overpriced for UK customers, though]
No used game restrictions - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWSIFh8ICaA
No always-on camera
No 24 hour check-in with Skynet
They're always overpriced and not just here as Australians suffer very badly and Europeans fare little better.
Turns out Microsoft were being less than honest by trying to push the whole rental issue onto the publishers since they appear to be fine with Sony's stance. Sony has learned the lesson from the last time when they overpriced their console. Microsoft has done almost everything wrong. They are going to struggle badly to ever catch up now. That price point matters.
Nintendo may have a surprise or two left but they are also very much on the backfoot. Sony is in the driving seat now.
I thought the wording funny as well. The sort of chutes used by base jumpers can be steered in flight, and therefore have a front and back. In this case, I suppose they mean the lines got 'twisted' 180 degrees whilst opening.
if the 'chute does not open cleanly, then it imparts directional forces the wearer is not intending. If you have 5,000 feet and acres of clear air around you, you have time to untangle the lines and get back under control. If you have a few hundred feet and are next to a structure then it's a trifle more difficult.
Thank heavens he will be out of office in 23 months.
The very worst education secretary. No wonder Labour pummels him in the polls.
Thank heavens he will be in charge for at least another 23 months.
The very best education secretary for ages.
Given Scotland currently processes "a large proportion of [UK] welfare payments" how many job losses if rUK says "no"?
This isn't going to be a totally digital generation of online software delivery. It's a transitional period where Sony and Microsoft will gradually move to fully online digital delivery for the console cycle after this one. Microsoft tried to force consumers into it while Sony are encouraging their consumers with their respective online networks and the deals available and features/restrictions. One of those strategies was the correct one and it isn't Microsofts.
If Microsoft don't do some serious damage control now and modify what they plan then that's a measure of just how little they get it.
A Telegraph leader column praising Cameron(!)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/10110521/David-Camerons-third-way-effort-will-be-rewarded.html
"'Cameronism' is a belief that effort, determination and sacrifice will bring appropriate reward. That is exactly the message that Britain needs to hear"
Normal Ukip service may be resumed tomorrow..
Apols to knuckle-draggers: Figures are rounded. Al-Beeb probably trying to build a narrative again....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22851978
Like banging on about Europe.
A bit like RBS HQ - it won't move the day after the vote.
Of course he'll campaign to stay in Europe, after he's got some change in the demarcation of Melton Mowbray pork pies, or courgette shapes or something.
Not that the Kipper vote has much to do with Europe, they're more angry about the fading of the light and them foreigners.
You appear to think Cammie's 'renegotiation' is laughable posturing. As if PB tories would be gullible enough to fall for such flimsy posturing after the flounce that wasn't and all his other Cast Iron hilarity.
Laughable.
UKIP's wwc support is far more numerous, but with a much lower propensity to 'bother' to vote.
Neither of these groups is in the least concerned about the insults (swivel-eyed, fruitcakes, closet racists, loons) that UKIP receives daily. The first group because they are sufficiently confident for it not to matter, and the wwc voters because they are used to being sneered at anyway.
But these insults have been effective with the largest subset of the population. The entire aspirational middle-class, aged between 20 and 60, provide us with approximately zero votes. They have been successfully discouraged from voting UKIP, by being persuaded that 'it is not a party with values like yours'.
Could UKIP make any inroads in this key voting demograph: 'Worcester woman', and 'Mondoe man'?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spar_(retailer)
Out of curiosity - are there other countries where people refer to fashions, buildings, logos, etc. by decades? It's a symptom of how fashion/trend-conscious we are. I've almost never seen it done elsewhere in Europe - my wife (who unlike me is properly British culturally) and I used to have mutually baffling exchanges on the lines of "That looks so Eighties" "Eighty-what?"
Does this mean rEd can't have an IHT policy ?
Nigel Farage doesn't strike me as angry or socially conservative - neither does Mr Nuttall or Diane Thingy - but its the noise Kippers make that doesn't help at times.
Does this mean every time the SNP government agrees with a self-serving report conducted without consultation with the UK government the Nats will repost these tweets?
You mean like the "Sterling Zone"?
Looks like it...
"hold on Liz, I'm expecting a call from the 1970s".
As regards rebranding, it's not as though other parties don't do it. In-your-face purple and yellow together with a pound sign is off-putting to a section of the voting public. By all means keep it if you want to retain the NOTA tag but I thought the game plan was to get serious.
(Note: I don't think they will be able to get serious but if they want to they should lose the primary colour smack in your face)
He's had a cosseted upbringing and knows zilch-all about pulling yourself up by one's drawstrings.
Perhaps if he was a halfway decent PM then he might get a hearing. But he isn't, so he'll be laughed at.
At least you admit it though Ben - one rule for the blues...
This is the challenge for UKIP. I've been contacted by the local press for a UKIP view, but when I didn't say anything daft, they didn't want to know. The TV won't have a picture of Farage without a pint; its not his schtick, its theirs.
Your observation that UKIP has too many 'angry' voters is true. They have a sense of powerlessness and frustration which they show.
Far worse.
Now they need a poll that asks the question how would you vote if Cameron did not get any meaningful concessions.
Forgot to mention that there was another interesting supplementary question on todays You Gov survey on how favourable your impression of Nelson Mandela was.
Perhaps you should look at this and your love of the 'perhaps one death' nonsense:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/jun/10/mid-staffordshire-trust-police-inquiry
As a matter of interest, have you re-read that blog you like yet and worked out why the claim of 'perhaps one death' is statistically nonsensical?
It's not as if he could ever come back from Europe and say "I'm a failure and my renegotiation policy is a failure". It's only a question of what pretext he would use to try and save face then campaign to stay in on.
"SCOTS could be forced to hand over their British passports and be barred from holding dual nationality with the UK after independence, Home Secretary Theresa May has signalled.
Her comments will be a blow to the Scottish Government, which has reassured voters they will be able to hold shared or dual citizenship.
"Decisions on UK citizenship remain with the UK Government, but if the vote in the referendum is for a separatist vote then Scotland will become a separate state – it will not be part of the UK."
A Home Office source added: "What the Scottish Government cannot promise is that, if Scotland became independent, people would retain the option of dual Scottish and UK nationality – decisions on UK citizenship are for the UK Government."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/scots-may-have-to-give-up-uk-passports-after-poll.21312095
You say you want independence so you're not told what to do by London.
Funnily enough, that works both ways....
I guess that's why people like Mr Choudrey still get airtime in a shock-jock way.
Keep looking. One day it might not sail over your head in such an amusing manner.
Mick,
Genuine question: if you were PM of an independent rUK, why would you not move these jobs back to the UK?
Presumably there will be some one time costs, and it would be a little bit less efficient on an ongoing basis (reduced operating leverage).
But this would be offset by a bunch of new jobs in carefully selected marginal constituencies depressed parts of rUK. Reduced welfare payments, increased income tax, etc.
Surely that's a no-brainer decision to make?
Equally I can see why Scotland wants to keep the jobs...
Though if you look at the question carefully it only says that Cameron says that Britain's interests were now protected, so it's to a large degree a question of trust in Cameron. Most people will not look at the detail of the negotiation, but would decide on the basis of who they trust more.
An interesting question might also add something like "...but Nigel Farage said the reforms were insignificant..." because it then prompts those polled to decide whose judgement they trust more between the two.
"In a Commons debate in November 2008, Mr Wishart said: “The fact is that since the Scottish Parliament was established, the idea of Britishness has started to wane from the psyche of Scottish people, and as Scotland moves forward to become a normal independent nation, all vestiges of Britishness will go.”
A Better Together spokesperson said: “It is curious that despite once claiming that all vestiges of Britishness will disappear with a Yes vote, Pete Wishart is now desperate to keep his British passport.
“The only way to guarantee we keep our British passports is to vote against separation next year.”
http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-uk-passport-loss-indication-1-2961819
The thing to remember is that the media is primarily about audience reach, which puts them in the mindset of the entertainment industry rather than an information service. The trick is to say things that voters will find appealing in a slightly outrageous way - Boris has this down to a T, and Farage isn't bad at it either.
I don't expect CAP to ever be on the table in all honesty. There is no reason why it can't be amended however...
THE scrapping of a fee paid by Scottish graduates on completion of their studies has not led to an increase in participation from poorer students, research shows.
Professor David Raffe, from the university's Centre for Educational Sociology, said: "Our findings provide little comfort either for the market-led philosophy, which is driving higher education in England, or for the claim that free tuition in Scotland promotes wider access for working-class students."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/education/abolition-of-graduate-endowment-has-failed-to-widen-access.21308862
If there was a referendum on Britain's
membership of the European Union, how would
you vote?
I would vote for Britain to remain a member of the
European Union: 35(0)
I would vote for Britain to leave the European Union: 43(0)
I would not vote: 5(0)
DK: 17(0)
23% of UKIPers would vote to stay in with the concessions, whilst 5% would stay in anyway.
The best supporting regions (in the poll) for UKIP are: Rest of South and North.
I want wrongdoing punished. No one said Stafford was not a scandal of poor care.
What is very much in dispute is the tally of "1200 extra deaths" that is casually thrown about by people who, well, let's just say they aren't too keen on the service for ideological reasons actually.
As Steve Walker showed, the HSMRs are very dependent on correct data entry, and, quite simply, Stafford's data was not entered correctly. I know you emotionally invested in this being about hundreds and hundreds of deaths, but the evidence, including that reported by Francis, isn't there.
And I won't be retracting my comments about the founder of the so-called "cure the NHS".
http://skwalker1964.wordpress.com/2013/06/10/detestable-beneath-contempt-cure-supporters-latest-vile-tactic/
Genuine question: if you were PM of an independent rUK, why would you not move these jobs back to the UK?
Presumably there will be some one time costs, and it would be a little bit less efficient on an ongoing basis (reduced fixed leverage).
But this would be offset by a bunch of new jobs in carefully selected marginal constituencies depressed parts of rUK. Reduced welfare payments, increased income tax, etc.
Surely that's a no-brainer decision to make?
Equally I can see why Scotland wants to keep the jobs...
Perhaps you should catch up on just how 'well' IDS welfare reforms are going before somewhat glibly suggesting the transfer of jobs would just be a little less efficient by moving some of them away from their point of assessment and delivery. Are you seriously proposing the PM of an rUK would try and force some claimants to travel up to hundreds of miles for processing on a regular basis? It' may not be all the infrastructure that does this (some handle claims UK wide) but it's enough to make any largescale move a logistical nightmare.
Not to mention how incredible that would look after a Yes vote which would necessitate it.
There will obviously be negotiations over the transfer of property, staff and IT systems but the idea that a PM of rUK could suddenly move everything to some marginal constituency is fanciful to say the least.
Best get a tory minister to try and scaremonger about such things as that's bound to help the credibility of such an idea with the average scottish voter.
I am more ambivalent about independence than (pace the polls) the Scottish people but here's another question:
do you think you are in any way misunderestimating the import of a, you know, separate country, which you are hoping to become?
It would make no sense whatsoever for one sovereign country to support the jobs market of another unless there were tangible benefits (eg. call centres/IT units in Bangalore, etc).
And even in those cases the political - and often commercial - imperative, especially now, is to repatriate jobs.
I hesitate to say this because I appreciate you spend your every waking hour on the subject but it doesn't seem to me as if you have thought this through.
For a national broadcaster like the BBC, this is unacceptable. I think the government should force them to be more balanced in their hiring decisions. I would think that any organisation would welcome the opportunity for a more diverse in-take.
http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/re-selection/
are when you come down to it all saying the same thing - 'he listens and engages in thoughtful discussion'. The way to build that up was by first getting people to sign up for emails (eventually I got to 10% of all households) and then send reasonably balanced discussions week in and week out for years. When you get to the point that people say 'I don't fully agree with you but I can see where you're coming from', you've broken through to a different relationship, and they are then hostile to the shoutier sort of rival slagging you off.
It takes a pretty sustained effort, though. My email updates over the years come to around a million words (650*1500ish). Gulp.
On-topic, UKIP are a serious party at the moment and deserve to be taken seriously. As others, I find some of the responses to the EU questions intriguing.
I wonder if there is still some residual deferrence out there to the office of Prime Minister. "If the PM says it's in Britain's interests, then it must be" is an interesting argument but not founded in rational analysis.
The fact that with such a commitment, a 43-35 vote to leave becomes a 50-28 vote (or thereabouts) to stay speaks volumes of the power of the office and the ability it offers to suspend rational criticism.
I'm actually surprised the margin to leave now is as small as it is but we know UKIP has to move beyond simply being the anti-EU party to being something else if it is to have a future. If it is to be the social conservative party, fine, if it is to be a pensioners' party, fine and it will be interesting to see how policies in key areas define the party's profile as we approach 2015.
The intangible is the nature of any concessions or re-negotiation that any Prime Minister (and I note Miliband hasn't ruled out a re-negotiation process himself) might extract from the rest of the EU. I suspect the main problem will be that in the nature of compromise, it's likely to be equally unacceptable to everybody.
I see Gove is doing away entirely with coursework including under "exam conditions". The latter as bit surprising, i assume that can only mean that teachers marking their own pupils have an eye on the league tables and basically cheat.
In this internet age coursework done as if homework is clearly unworkable and middle class parents helping their kids disproportionately more must be a strong possibility on top, but to go the whole hog suggests the whole system is rotten.
3 cheers too for ditching modules and raising grade boundaries so we stop kidding ourselves our children's brains are evolving 1000 times faster than at any time in human history...
And I have criticised the 1,200 deaths as being unprovable as well, but your faith in Steve Walker shows nothing aside from the fact that you are both statistically illiterate. Read his blog post and try to see the flaws in what he claims.
Keep sticking your head in the sand. It makes you look ridiculous on any other claim you make.
But worse: you go on the attack. You so hate the fact that Labour failed in one of its core aims - something you had been hoping to pin on the Tories - that anyone off-message is a target.
Your attitude will just let events such as Stafford continue. It is thanks to campaigns like 'cure the NHS' that the truth of the scandalous levels of care came out. It did not come out earlier because of the pay-off's to whistleblowers and the surrounding culture allowed by both Labour and this government. Are you ashamed of those bribespay-offs?
And you seem to think I am a) trying to pin similar things on the rest of the NHS, and b) doing this for party political reasons. You are wrong on both counts. As I have said many times, it will happen again under governments of any stripes unless the lessons are learned, which is not currently happening under this government.
I have had mixed experiences in both the NHS and private healthcare. Closing your ears to criticism and buying off whistleblowers will not help the service - or patients - get better.
The British debate is therefore poorly served (one of the reasons why europhobia is as dominant as it is here in the UK in comparison to most other EU countries).
A bit less need to shock by the BBC and more information and views of the EU will soften (because it just isn't the beast the anti-EU brigade pretend it is). As it is, it still amuses me how relatviely badly the OUT movement does in polls given how much airtime its views get.
The trouble with changing the question format is that it screws up comparisons with previous polling. To do it properly, you'd need to run two separate polls for a while, one with the UKIP prompt and one without, so as to calibrate the likely effect. But that would be very expensive. Perhaps the excellent Lord Ashcroft might be persuaded to do this?
I suspect, though, that a bigger unknown is how to adjust weightings for past voting and demographics. With very little in the way of actual election results to calibrate against, pollsters don't really know how the polling would translate into actual votes.
On the subject of Cameron's mooted renegotiation, what people are missing is that Germany will be very keen indeed, verging on desperate, to keep the UK in the EU as a counterbalance to the olive belt. Therefore there will certainly be significant concessions available, irrespective of what the Eurocrats say and what the other 25 countries might think. (What do you think the EU is - a democratic institution where everyone's opinion counts?) And if those concessions aren't good enough, then we can vote to leave. What's not to like?
How they can think for a minute this silly caricaturing is accurate just makes me question their own willful blindness to their own faults.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDlES3BYejV2WVk1QTNldy11c2ZtSGc#gid=0
Over time after independence that will presumably not be so. Scotland remains depressingly left wing and socialist in it's outlook. It is very likely that they will have different priorities. Let's face it, if they don't what is the point?
Once the underlying rules start to drift apart carrying on with this work will not only be a waste of rUK taxes but inefficient. It would not happen overnight, it might take years, but it would be inevitable.
What I am finding irritating at the moment is SNP supporters determination to claim that pretty much everything will remain the same except for the benefits of independence. I have no doubt that SNP supporters are equally irritated by every scare story that is run in the press, some of which border on the absurd.
But the slightly chippy, this is so because I say it is so, mindset of the SNP has already proven to be the better off together's best weapon. It does look as if grown up sensible discussion as to the consequences of independence both in the short and the medium term is not on either camp's agenda. Depressing though this is I suspect it will on balance benefit the better together camp.
a) in
b) out but with a free trade arrangement
c) out
...and a majority for in with:
a) in, and more integration
b) in, but no more integration
c) out
In one sense, it is a great opportunity to go into a market, with an attractive product, and zero market penetration. And that is where UKIP is with the aspirational vote in the UK.
If you achieve nothing---well, you had nothing before. But any converts from the largest market sector will have a big impact.
Have we in UKIP a chance here? Sadly, the 'knocking copy' job has been done too effectively. The down-side of these partly successful attempts to humiliate UKIP is that it doesn't reflect well on the 'knockers'. They all look negative, and that's where the other party leaders are now, especially Cameron.
A question for you.
Why on earth do you think a tory ministers claims concerning welfare or the implementation of it would be more credible in scotland than elsewhere? It doesn't seem to me as if the incompetent tory spinners have thought this through.