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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft to return to the CON held marginals with the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft to return to the CON held marginals with the smallest majorities
The big polling news in the past hour has been a Tweet from Lord Ashcroft saying that next week he’s publishing a new round of marginals poll of the seats he polled first nearly a year ago. These are the ones with the tightest majorities and the most vulnerable.
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In fact, she is struggling to think who to vote for in the GE. Not Tories natch, but given the Lab front bench just now not Lab either. Libs are a wasted vote (even if they win this seat), and she has been turned off the SNP by the continuous bleating and puerile politics of the "45ers"... At this rate she may well end up abstaining, something she has never done before. Lisping Gimp is almost exactly how my wife refers to the man. (I would quote exactly, but the naught-word filter may end up smiting me with the banhammer)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31837660
France Objects to Waterloo Euro Coin
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31841421
DC is supported by: 96% of Cons VI; 5% of LAB; 28% of LD and 33% of UKIP
EdM is supported by: 60% of LAB; 9% of LD, 6% of UKIP and ZERO of Cons.
Coral 3-1 on Vautour right now.
Will sell fast.
Feels like there's too much polling, to be honest.
Edited extra bit: and, in more important news, Sauber have lost their appeal. They may have to race Van Der Garde:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/31846217
It's Ipsos Mori today isn't it? The last 2 months have shown Labour leads of 1 and 2.
Quite. I actually find Ed Balls particularly and instinctively objectionable in his approach. Perhaps a bit of that is unfair on my part, but something about the man grates with me, and beyond that general impression he is distinctly unimpressive, even if I gather as a political operator he has his strengths. Heresy. Sorry to let the side down - I know nothing really of Soubry as an MP, but it's NPXMP all the way for me. Fortunately for her, good wishes have very little currency in these matters.
Needless to say my case was fatally undermined when I splashed out on a classic horseless carriage not completely unrelated to a make signified by winged B atop the messed grill.
Oopps.
In contrast 93% of Conservative voters think Cameron is the man for the job (as do 10% of Lab 2010).
Those 2010 Lib Dems we're told to keep an eye on - more than twice as many (28%) rate Cameron over Clegg (12%), with Ed getting 19%.
While UKIP voters, denied the option of Nigel mainly don't know (57%), Cameron (33%) is the only (other) show in town.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/sjv8qo2081/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-110315.pdf
Which makes me think two different pollsters are at work.
The last Tory to win a majority was Major. The last Tory to have won a GE is the current Prime Minister.
The notion that it takes a majority to "win" an election is alien to utterly alien to almost all of the democracies in the globe. The winner is the one to get enough seats to be able to take power, which is what Cameron and to a lesser extent Clegg did.
But we are both voting by post and will exchange pics of ballot forms.
This is a direct product of first past the post. It enables both of us to feel that our votes are being used where they'll have most impact without undermining the overall national vote shares for our parties. A perfect solution.
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/sack-jeremy-clarkson?bucket&source=facebook-share-button&time=1426109503
15,098 so far..
May I enquire as to where you are exercising your franchise - Surrey or a coastal town in Dorset ?
"Why? I don't want to waste my vote and the other party doesn't want to waste his."
There is a risk here. I did the same thing in 2001 when I voted LD on the basis a friend would vote Labour in another constituency.
Alas ... I went on to vote LD thereafter.
You allegiance could change forever, even at your advanced age. You could become Red Mike.
They were not wrong
Fieldwork mid-January at a guess?
It's his money I suppose.
http://www.liberal-vision.org/2015/03/11/plain-packs-roll-of-honour/
Last time I looked it was a democracy and people could do with their vote as they saw fit. I will be wasting mine in East Ham as will all the non-Labour voters but I will vote.
The mood among some of the Tories on here would have you believe they are over the finishing line and already working out the size of the majority. I would regard two years of Conservative introspection on Europe as a disaster for this country and on this I have some sympathy with the UKIP line - a simple in/Out Referendum could and should have happened by now and even as a LD, I've found Nick Clegg's obfuscation profoundly unsatisfactory (though he's not alone in that).
The assumption of majority and the routine belittling of opponents is fair enough but IF the Conservatives come up short, where are their allies or partners in the next HoC ? We know the potential for a LAB-SNP deal is there and that could very well have more MPs than the Conservatives on their own.
There's no assumption in my mind that the LDs or the DUP will rally to the Conservative cause either (though that doesn't mean either will rally to Ed M either) so even if the Conservatives are around 300, assuming the LDs are down to 25 (which some on here seem to think is a) optimistic and b) 25 seats too many) that puts 30 seats in the LAB-SNP camp (SNP gains from the LDs in Scotland (duh) and LAB gains from the LDs elsewhere).
Fot the purposes of this, I've assumed CON gains from the LDs are balanced by CON losses to LAB so you come out as CON 300 LAB 250 SNP 50 LD 25 OTHERS 25.
So it's down to PC (with LAB/SNP you'd think), the single Green and UKIP MPs (cancel each other out), the Speaker (irrelevant) and the Ulster MPs and the LDs.
The fun starts in approximately 1,356 hours from now (to borrow a JackW ism).
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-mcsmiths-diary-after-esther-mcvey-it-was-chris-bryants-turn-to-get-a-rough-ride-from-speaker-john-bercow-10101929.html
Labour's position on it is puzzling: they claim not punishing discrimination is the worst thing a politician has ever backed, yet they themselves back an official policy of discrimination for the Metropolitan Police.
It seems like the only sensible party on racial politics is the Conservatives.
Farage saying "British jobs for British workers"
That "racist" remark sounds familiar. Has he said it before?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31846453
UKIP would scrap much of the legislation designed to prevent racial discrimination in work, party leader Nigel Farage has said.
But can't stay and debate - things to do - will be back by tea-time. Tarrah!
I feel insulted by it. It's so thuggish. Quite. I actually find Ed Balls particularly and instinctively objectionable in his approach. Perhaps a bit of that is unfair on my part, but something about the man grates with me, and beyond that general impression he is distinctly unimpressive, even if I gather as a political operator he has his strengths. Heresy. Sorry to let the side down - I know nothing really of Soubry as an MP, but it's NPXMP all the way for me. Fortunately for her, good wishes have very little currency in these matters.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-31804119
He has some very fair and astute points which will not be welcomed by the liberal intelligensia.
I'm sure the PB Tories will be as resolute in acknowledging a Miliband victory, whatever the make up of his patchwork quilt.
Also the dishonesty. When McBride smeared Cameron over Ivan, Balls referred to him as "Mr McBride" like he didn't know him, even though they sat at desks six feet away from one another.
And the hypocrisy - having got his own selective education in the bag he now opposes it for anybody else.
And the troughing.
Creep.
Look on it as an act of AV sanity in a mad FPTP world.
(or not, if you desire)
Perhaps spread your electoral largesse in Clacton, Rochester and Thanet South ?
"Farage's most blatant dog whistle yet. If people want to support and cheerlead for this crass ignorant nasty barsteward they are welcome."
So Gordon is the bigot too?
http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people
That does not quite fit with how he answered a direct question about race or colour further down.
I note that Sadiq Khan said there were 'No blacks, no dogs, no Irish' signs when his parents came to London. Were such signs really still about in the 1950s? I was under the impression they were a 19th Century thing.
So I'd find any Ashcroft poll for a constituency with a Labour lead of 8% or less last time potentially in play, which might make the results for Waveney, Sherwood and Broxtowe of particular interest.
The people of Twickenham have the right to choose they want to represent their interests in Parliament.
You are taking that away from them because you believe that your personal desire to maximise the number of LibDem MPs is more important than their rights.
How unbelievably selfish.
Please tell me that I've got this whole conversation wrong. Otherwise, I'm truly appalled on so many levels. It makes swapping speeding points with your wife seem trivial.
The other thing is that tradition dictates any selfie if your vote must be done in your Y-Fronts.
Farage gets more publicity and Labour could end up looking like hysterics.
A big if unintended elephant trap and Labour will be pushing each other out the way to leap into it.
A significant difference.
PS - As for 'rowing back' this is just typical Farage. Throw out the dog whistle and then make the excuse of some sort afterwards. His quoted remark seemed pretty clear to me.
It's up there with Labour nonsense like "Forward not back" and "Forward with Britain" that means exactly nothing in terms of what specifically it promises to deliver (nothing). It's just a football chant really.