I wouldn't be surprised if another referendum occurred relatively soon, but it's far from certain.
MD, maybe not certain but very close unless Westminster ante up what they promised. They do not have a lot of time.
Part of the problem is that what was promised in "the vow" was not very clear, and not promised by an accountable body such as the UK parliament. Such further devolution should have been set out in advance. SNP MPs need to respect the same principles over rUK issues, or accept the primacy of Westminster over Holyrood, and with all that entails for devo-max.
I was considering backing Conservative majority but not at 6.5, thought it would be higher than that.
Edit:
Just been on Spin and like the look of the Swingometer index, anyone considering backing a Tory majority should consider this buy at 57:
100 points if the Conservatives gain an overall majority 50 points if neither the Conservatives nor Labour gain an overall majority (i.e. a hung parliament or Lib Dem majority) 0 points if Labour gain an overall majority
On topic and as a member of the electorate in any future LD leadership election, I'm still to be convinced by Tim Farron though I have no issues with his passion or his view of liberalism. He represents the northern nonconformist tradition of the party which is fine and I hear nothing but good things about him as a local campaigner and constituency MP.
Norman Lamb is someone I know less about though I took great pleasure in him seeing off Iain Dale. He speaks well on health but I'm less certain where he stands on other areas.
I've long thought Tom Brake should go for the leadership but I suspect that's the last thing Tom Brake wants which is unfortunate.
In your constituency you vote for an individual not a party or a party leader.
The ballot paper has the name of an individual and the name of a party. I know far more people who use the name of the party as the guide for which box to mark, than otherwise.
So your theory is based on unquantified anecdote.
Go look at the Ashcroft polls.
What do the Ashcroft polls have to say about it?
I must say tim's greatest sleight of hand was the introduction of the false dichotomy "anecdotes vs. poll".
I know for a fact that my Tory MP is a lazy, self-regarding slob. It would never occur to me not to vote for him, though, or to inform myself about who his opponents might be. And I can't help noticing that this forum consists of one great debate over the self-evident propositions that Cameron is a principled, far-sighted and above all courageous statesman, and ed is crap. It isn't 650 different conversations about whether candidate Perkins, Snorkins or Jorkins came out best in the brouhaha over the relocation of the municipal bus station the year before last.
Correct and your point about false dichotomies is a good one.
In your constituency you vote for an individual not a party or a party leader.
The ballot paper has the name of an individual and the name of a party. I know far more people who use the name of the party as the guide for which box to mark, than otherwise.
In your constituency you vote for an individual not a party or a party leader.
The ballot paper has the name of an individual and the name of a party. I know far more people who use the name of the party as the guide for which box to mark, than otherwise.
So your theory is based on unquantified anecdote.
Go look at the Ashcroft polls.
The unproven polls that are all over the place?
And probably by different pollsters
There is a significant degree of concern over reading too much into the Ashcroft marginal polls when his national polls can bounce around at the extreme ends of margin of error. Was the pollster doing them the one that has Labour 4% ahead or the one with the Tories 5% ahead? They aren't really much use in telling us anything scientific other than "the marginals are close". Like, durh!
EdM is determined that the great British Public must have the right to watch TV debates among Party Leaders but denies the very same people the right to determine their future in Europe..I wonder which is the most important "Right" The boy is a complete Dork
Fair enough, you don't like Ed Miliband or the Labour Party. I get that, I really do.
The only thing is, you could say the same about David Cameron.
In your constituency you vote for an individual not a party or a party leader.
The ballot paper has the name of an individual and the name of a party. I know far more people who use the name of the party as the guide for which box to mark, than otherwise.
So your theory is based on unquantified anecdote.
Go look at the Ashcroft polls.
I am working in Torbay, a tough LibDem-Conservative marginal. The sitting LibDem undoubtedly has a following and plenty of folks are happy to give him their vote.
Did you manage to get a ticket to the UKIP SW Conference?
"Torquay was the venue for UKIP’s 2015 South West Spring Conference today Saturday 7th March.
UKIP Chairman Steve Crowther quoted that the four places in the UK where UKIP had the highest votes in the European Elections last year were all in Devon.They were Torbay,Plymouth,North Devon and Torridge."
Mr. Taffys, he ended his brother's political career. Miliband will be desperate to justify that decision. If he fails to become PM, it will have been for nothing.
What a daft comment. You form a Government based on who is elected. All of this squealing about how dreadful it would be if the Scots were dictating English politics is provoking large guffaws here in Scotland. Particularly when it comes from the likes of Ken Baker who was quite happy for Englkand to dictate Scottish politics including the Poll Tax one year early when Baker was in office! What is "unacceptable" to you or Baker may look very attractive up here.
In your constituency you vote for an individual not a party or a party leader.
The ballot paper has the name of an individual and the name of a party. I know far more people who use the name of the party as the guide for which box to mark, than otherwise.
In your constituency you vote for an individual not a party or a party leader.
The ballot paper has the name of an individual and the name of a party. I know far more people who use the name of the party as the guide for which box to mark, than otherwise.
So your theory is based on unquantified anecdote.
Go look at the Ashcroft polls.
The unproven polls that are all over the place?
And probably by different pollsters
There is a significant degree of concern over reading too much into the Ashcroft marginal polls when his national polls can bounce around at the extreme ends of margin of error. Was the pollster doing them the one that has Labour 4% ahead or the one with the Tories 5% ahead? They aren't really much use in telling us anything scientific other than "the marginals are close". Like, durh!
You overstate their value. "the marginals were close last September-Octoberish sort of time" is more like it.
The vanity re-badging alone is enough to make me disregard them entirely.
To get power, he would happily go into coalition with the SNP.
This move would destroy England, the union, and his own party. But hey who cares. He would be prime minister for a while.
And Dave would also happily go into power with the SNP. except they and the rest of Scotland wouldnt touch him with a bargepole
Ditto Wales and Plaid ...
Ditto the Greens...
Of course he would also happily go into Govt with the loonies and the fruitcakes and the racists as he dubbed them just to cling on to being in office but not in power
One of the unfortunate consequences of freedom of speech is we are forced to endure such half-baked nonsense as this.
The St Helier Estate sits within Carshalton & Wallington Constituency in Sutton and within the Mitcham & Morden constituency in the Borough of Merton. None of it is within the Sutton & Cheam Constituency.
Now you could have bothered to check your facts but far more important to make some half-witted comment to make a cheap political jibe. Presumably given your chronic inability to perform even the slightest research, we should all now treat your rantings with the contempt they deserve.
The comment about Roundshaw is even more pitiful. The estate isn't large enough to have the influence you give it and I can't remember a Labour Councillor ever having elected for the Ward in which it sits.
It dosent have its own ward because it is subsumed into the very large ward of Beddington South which also contains vast numbers of large 1930s semis full of Tory voters. A typical place where Labour voters are squeezed by tactical libdem votes in what is a very close Libdem/Tory marginal where the three winning candidates were 1) Libdem, 2) Tory and 3) Libdem in 2014. Additionally a major rebuild of the social housing there, now complete, would inevitably have depressed the labour turnout in recent years (1000 high rise flats demolished as part of it and replaced with low rise flats and houses)
While I had made an error in that a fair chunk of the St Helier estate is in Carshalton and Wallington (and is another reservoir of borrowed Labour voters) not all of it is. Sutton North and Stonecot within Sutton and Cheam also contain a good chunk of this vast LCC out county council estate. Sutton & Cheam also houses the large Worcester Park estate which is a further reservoir of borrowed Labour Voters.
It may be that Libdem will retain those borrowed labour voters (as they did in 2014 council elections, but both seats have only moderate Libdem majorities and a heavily squeezed Labour vote,
Carshalton & Wallington, although having the bigger Libdem Majority of 5,260; has a Labour vote squeezed from 11,565 in 1997 to 4,015 in 2010. A fall of two thirds and comfortably exceeding the Libdem majority.
Sutton and Cheam, with a much smaller Libdem Majority of 1,608 has seen the Labour vote fall from 7,280 to 3,376, double the Libdem majority.
In the 2014 Euro elections in LB Sutton, UKIP Came top with 16,345, Conservative Second 14,810, Libdem 3rd 12,104 and Lab 4th 7,958. Sutton was one of the few places in London that voted UKIP into 1st place. This dosent greatly surprise me as a lot of WWC has moved out there away from demographic change in Norbury, Thornton Heath, Mitcham and Streatham. It also shows that there is a big element of not tory in the Libdem vote.
Miliband will be desperate to justify that decision. If he fails to become PM, it will have been for nothing.
Just consider a labour/SNP coalition for a moment. Given the regard the SNP have for England, it would be a bit like a labour/Vladimir Putin coalition.
The sensible labour MPs must be praying for defeat in May.
While he had a majority of about 12,000 in 2005 and 2010 he won it by a knife edge in 2001 and the Tories held it in the nadir of 1997.
There hasn't been much demographic change in North Norfolk since 1992, although a lot of Guardianistas have second homes in the area.
From 1970 to 1997 it was safe Conservative seat but can be volatile, from 1945-1970 it was held by labour and pre war by the Tories.
But the fact it was safely Conservative not so very long ago is surely a testament to Lamb's personal following in the area, and that's precisely what Lib Dems need in order to hold seats? The places where they are in greatest danger is where they are historically strong but have weak candidates - the precise opposite of North Norfolk.
Lamb will retain this easily, and very possibly with a five figure majority still.
On the contrary, its a lesson in how the Libdems successfully presented themselves as all things to all men to attract Labour voters.
In 1997 this seat (which was a safe Labour seat throughout the '50s and '60s got 14,736 Labour voters. In 2010, Labour got 2,896.
The labour vote dropped by 11,840 between 1997 and 2010. Lambs Majority in 2010 was 214 votes less than this at 11,626.
People like Lamb depend entirely on continuing to borrow Labours voters, which after five years of coalition with the Tories may be a hard ask. He may keep his seat, but I would bet if he does his majority will suffer a caning.
I would suggest that any Libdem sitting in a seat where his majority is lower than the drop in the Labour vote since 1997 could be in trouble.
Places like Sutton and Cheam, where the Libdems have never had a majority of more than 2000-3000 and the Labour vote from the vast St Helier council estate has been lent to the liberals (seeing Labour drop from 7,280 in 1997 to 3,376 in 2010 are obviously more vulnerable.
1997 was a long time ago. Those Labour voters have moved on. They are not going to be attracted to Milibandism. I think that rural East Anglia no longer has the Labour tradition that it used to. Labour struggles to hold even urban seats like Norwich or Ipswich. UKIP (possibly) may pick up the old Labour vote here, but not Labour itself.
We shall see shortly how effective personal votes are. "I hate Clegg and Cameron, but that Lamb bloke is alright..."
But no one has ever heard of this bloke Lamb. Who is he? You, me and Uncle Tom Cobley are all ''all right'. We all could have a hugely successful career in politics just so long as we do not actually have to do anything, make any choices or upset anyone. Politics where all you do is protest is dead easy.
EdM is determined that the great British Public must have the right to watch TV debates among Party Leaders but denies the very same people the right to determine their future in Europe..I wonder which is the most important "Right" The boy is a complete Dork
Fair enough, you don't like Ed Miliband or the Labour Party. I get that, I really do.
The only thing is, you could say the same about David Cameron.
We must have missed the bit where David Cameron proposed a law making it illegal to not talk to him.
Miliband will be desperate to justify that decision. If he fails to become PM, it will have been for nothing.
Just consider a labour/SNP coalition for a moment. Given the regard the SNP have for England, it would be a bit like a labour/Vladimir Putin coalition.
The sensible labour MPs must be praying for defeat in May.
Morning all from a bright and very sunny Easter Ross. On thread, Norman Lamb strikes me as being an orange booker LibDem. Would he not be too centre-right for the open toed sandals brigade on the left of the LibDems?
Watching Nikki Morgan on Murnaghan reminded me to ask for the collective wisdom of PBers.
The holding of which seat by the Tories would make PBers think the game is over for Miliband?
The holding/winning of which seat by the Tories would make PBers think Cameron would seek to run a minority/majority government?
Interesting this morning to hear Philip Hammond say that he is focused on David Cameron re-entering No 10 on 8th May "without any little helper at his side".
In your constituency you vote for an individual not a party or a party leader.
You are a dreamer, Mike.
Theoretically, you are 100% right.
But time and time again, you see the vast majority of voters making their decision based on party colours vs the specific merits of individual candidates.
To get power, he would happily go into coalition with the SNP.
This move would destroy England, the union, and his own party. But hey who cares. He would be prime minister for a while.
And Dave would also happily go into power with the SNP. except they and the rest of Scotland wouldnt touch him with a bargepole
Ditto Wales and Plaid ...
Ditto the Greens...
Of course he would also happily go into Govt with the loonies and the fruitcakes and the racists as he dubbed them just to cling on to being in office but not in power
Dave really is a ludicrous hypocrite
It does look to me that the Conservatives will form a minority government if they beat Labour in England and Wales for all the reasons that you have stated.
Some deal over EVFEL with the SNP would be needed but no deal after that.
Frankly, I'm not sure Ed can even deliver. His marginal MPs will take one look at the SNPs proposals for legalised theft of English property to feed Scottish subsistence and weep.
Mass rebellions from Day 1, starting with his own chancellor.
There is a significant degree of concern over reading too much into the Ashcroft marginal polls when his national polls can bounce around at the extreme ends of margin of error. Was the pollster doing them the one that has Labour 4% ahead or the one with the Tories 5% ahead? They aren't really much use in telling us anything scientific other than "the marginals are close". Like, durh!
Whilst it remains to be seen how accurate Ashcroft's polls are, they POTENTIALLY tell us a good deal more than that the marginals are close.
The last election saw radically different results in apparently similar seats, and that probably wasn't a one off. The days of "there may be a couple of outliers but basically a 5% swing is a 5% swing" are dead, and the newspapers continuing on that line are behind the curve. These constituency polls are the future - whether or not Ashcroft's methodology turns out to be robust.
Morning all from a bright and very sunny Easter Ross. On thread, Norman Lamb strikes me as being an orange booker LibDem. Would he not be too centre-right for the open toed sandals brigade on the left of the LibDems?
Watching Nikki Morgan on Murnaghan reminded me to ask for the collective wisdom of PBers.
The holding of which seat by the Tories would make PBers think the game is over for Miliband?
The holding/winning of which seat by the Tories would make PBers think Cameron would seek to run a minority/majority government?
Interesting this morning to hear Philip Hammond say that he is focused on David Cameron re-entering No 10 on 8th May "without any little helper at his side".
Why is the Hammond statement interesting? What would you expect him to say?
I suppose it makes a change from him telling security to frogmarch ex soldiers out of the Tory conference after the two old codgers dared to try and make a point there in the defence debate
With many previously-safe Scottish seats looking precarious (Labour's position in Scotland seeming anything from a near wipe-out to very poor), and Labour's less-than-laden war chest; how much energy and money will the party pour into Scotland during the GE campaign?
Although I doubt their position is as bad as the polling is showing (*), it'll be interesting to see how they prioritise the endangered Scottish seats over English and Welsh ones.
(*) I wonder how many of the ex-Labourites telling the pollsters they'll vote SNP will actually do so at the GE. It would not surprise me if there is a certain amount of rollback on the day.
In your constituency you vote for an individual not a party or a party leader.
You are a dreamer, Mike.
Theoretically, you are 100% right.
But time and time again, you see the vast majority of voters making their decision based on party colours vs the specific merits of individual candidates.
Except in LD seats
... excluding LD MP incumbents in Scotland.
Stop, Mike's suffered enough. Potential LD, wipe out in North Britain, and criticism of the BBC is too much, for one man, to bear in a single thread.
The Tories have an achilles heel the sizr of the Puglia. They are heartless rich boys in it for friends family and donors. It's going to be the election battleground.
In Labour's corner they have
1. The Lib Dems. Their only sensible strategy is to try to show that had it not been for them it would have been worse. As soon as parliament is dissolved they'll spill the beans and beg the country for forgiveness. No one does self flagellation like Vince
2. IDS. Probably the most unattractive symbol of poor-bashing since Marie Antoinette. Maybe a 48 sheet next to Justin Beiber's crotch on Cambridge Circus?
3. The Scots. Though no friends of Labour no one has articulated Tory values quite as powerfully as the Scots have. And they're on the long march South...
4. Altruistic Monaco based multi billionaires who would like to see Tory Party remain in office
Farron remains the favourite, but I don't think he justifies odds on status (as some bookies are offering).
The obvious answer to a heavy defeat would be to swing to someone who's always been more than sceptical about the Coalition. But members who've stuck with the party tend to be warmer to the Coalition (the coldest have left) and in held seats with MPs who may be sceptical about Farron.
The unattributed comment after one vote about whether the colleague liked Farron - "What bit of the sanctimonious, god-bothering, treacherous little sh1t is there not to like?" - has some purchase. If there was a vote now, he'd take it, but there is that element which could get traction.
It is unacceptable for the SNP to be in a position to influence the government of the UK, even via C&S. Like SF in 1918, they are enemies of this state and a grand coalition, as suggested by 2 Tory elder statesmen, is preferable to a Lab-SNP arrangement, if no other combination commands an OM in the HoC. The Tories need to pursue EM's refusal to rule out collaboration with the SNP as unpatriotic. This might lead to a Scottish UDI, but IMO this is inevitable if the SNP do as well in 2015 as SF did in 1918.
2015 is not about independence unless the other parties make it about independence.
It is hard not to make it so if the will of the Scottish people is that they want their UK Parliamentary reps to overwhelmingly be in favour of independence. Sure it may not be first on the agenda immediately following the election, but it's hard not to imagine things heading down that route again as a result.
Sure, but there is no mandate to call a second referendum. That mandate will come (or be rejected) at the Holyrood elections. However if Labour and the Conservatives keep banging on about how terribly unfair it is for UK citizens to elect MPs then they are making a fait accompli
What about those Salmond statements pre-Sept 18 about this being Scotland's only chance and there wouldn't be another referendum in a generation? Was he telling lies?
I suppose it makes a change from him telling security to frogmarch ex soldiers out of the Tory conference after the two old codgers dared to try and make a point there in the defence debate
Is that better or worse than having one old codger arrested for daring to try and make a point in the debate?
EdM is determined that the great British Public must have the right to watch TV debates among Party Leaders but denies the very same people the right to determine their future in Europe..I wonder which is the most important "Right" The boy is a complete Dork
Fair enough, you don't like Ed Miliband or the Labour Party. I get that, I really do.
The only thing is, you could say the same about David Cameron.
We must have missed the bit where David Cameron proposed a law making it illegal to not talk to him.
On topic, I've been saying for some time that Farron should be the next Lib Dem leader (even though I don't necessarily agree with him on many things). The party need to rebuild and decide what it wants to be, and to do that it needs to listen to the activists, not the grandees.
He may not be leader for more than a couple of years, but he seems the best choice to see that difficult process through.
He'll presumably lead it in the HoC post-May, potentially in coalition or in confidence and supply. The idea that orders will be taken from Sturgeon, 400 miles away in Holyrood, is rather absurd.
Frankly, I'm not sure Ed can even deliver. His marginal MPs will take one look at the SNPs proposals for legalised theft of English property to feed Scottish subsistence and weep.
I thought those were Jim Murphy's proposals?
There won't be a Labour SNP coalition, so you can conserve your wheesht .
You really do come across as anti-SNP. As it happens I did a dissertation on this very subject. Salmond said for many years that "in his judgement/view" constitutional referendum were "likely" to be a "once in a political generation" referencing the example of devo votes in 1979 and 2007.
He never departed from this script over many years and often pointed out that he could not determine the future but that it was his opinion. There is nothing in this that binds his successor and nothing which suggests a "lie" except in the minds of people with pre-determined views.
On topic, I've been saying for some time that Farron should be the next Lib Dem leader (even though I don't necessarily agree with him on many things). The party need to rebuild and decide what it wants to be, and to do that it needs to listen to the activists, not the grandees.
He may not be leader for more than a couple of years, but he seems the best choice to see that difficult process through.
But in what conceivable circumstances would he only be leader for a couple of years? Unless he'd utterly failed in the very task you think he's suited to do, he'd be there for a decade. He's certainly not the sort of chap to do the job and ride off into the sunset - that completely misreads the make-up of the man.
The Tories have an achilles heel the sizr of the Puglia. They are heartless rich boys in it for friends family and donors. It's going to be the election battleground.
In Labour's corner they have
1. The Lib Dems. Their only sensible strategy is to try to show that had it not been for them it would have been worse. As soon as parliament is dissolved they'll spill the beans and beg the country for forgiveness. No one does self flagellation like Vince
2. IDS. Probably the most unattractive symbol of poor-bashing since Marie Antoinette. Maybe a 48 sheet next to Justin Beiber's crotch on Cambridge Circus?
3. The Scots. Though no friends of Labour no one has articulated Tory values quite as powerfully as the Scots have. And they're on the long march South...
4. Altruistic Monaco based multi billionaires who would like to see Tory Party remain in office
5. Rupert Murdoch.
So your search for a disabled person being thrown out of their home didn't go as well as expected then?
If you need a stop candidate.. you need one for the Greens.. That Natalie woman is absolutely stark staring bonkers.
One person's "stark staring bonkers" is another person's inspirational and impressive. I think she'd make a brilliant PM. I'm not saying that I agree with her on 100% of issues but there's no politician I can say that about.
My main problem at the GE is that there doesn't seem to be any sign of there being a Green candidate in my seat so I'll probably either have to stay at home or spoil the paper.
The argument about whether voters vote for the candidate or the party is an old one. I have no doubt that in some constituencies people very much vote for the man/woman and due to that some MPs defy gravity and for a period of years confound the polls. Such seats are few and far between.
Looking at LibDem seats, there are those which they have traditionally held on and off since the days the Liberals were a truly national party of government. These seats are indeed the Celtic fringe. We are now going to see whether the LibDems can hold on to the seats they started to win from 1987 onwards. In Scotland the answer is unlikely.
An example of the man not party is my home seat. Bob MacLennan took the seat for Labour from the Liberals in the 1960s. Bob MacLennan then joined the Gang of 4 and held the seat in 1983 as an SDP candidate and eventually held the seat as a LibDem.
An example of the party not the man was my childhood home seat. Sir Tam Galbraith (Lord Strathclyde's father) was deeply disliked, known as the invisible man and we only saw him at election time. Nevertheless he held Glasgow Hillhead from 1948 until his death in 1981. In 1979 the majorities of the 4 district or 2 regional council seats which made up the constituency were more than double his parliamentary majority. He got re-elected because he was the Tory candidate. Across the city Teddy Taylor had defied gravity by holding on to Glasgow Cathcart even after the boundary changes lumped a huge council estate Castlemilk into his seat. However somewhat ironically, his luck ran out in 1979, just as he was on the point of being appointed to Margaret Thatcher's 1st cabinet.
EdM is determined that the great British Public must have the right to watch TV debates among Party Leaders but denies the very same people the right to determine their future in Europe..I wonder which is the most important "Right" The boy is a complete Dork
Fair enough, you don't like Ed Miliband or the Labour Party. I get that, I really do.
The only thing is, you could say the same about David Cameron.
We must have missed the bit where David Cameron proposed a law making it illegal to not talk to him.
The law isn't actually restricted to the debates. Crossing the road to avoid him will get you a short custodial sentence. Avoiding eye contact will get you sent on an free owl sensitivity course.
And if he feels he need to chase you through kitchens as Brown did to Obama at the UN then you're going supermax for a long long time.
Great post. In fairness it should be said that Nick Clegg (total popularity MINUS 66 in Scotland) has a ZERO rating for "very well" and Cameron (total popularity MINUS 44) achieves the dizzy heights of 5% very well!
Compare this with Salmond who achieved positive ratings through 7 years in office or Sturgeon who is now PLUS 40 per cent!
If you need a stop candidate.. you need one for the Greens.. That Natalie woman is absolutely stark staring bonkers.
One person's "stark staring bonkers" is another person's inspirational and impressive. I think she'd make a brilliant PM. I'm not saying that I agree with her on 100% of issues but there's no politician I can say that about.
My main problem at the GE is that there doesn't seem to be any sign of there being a Green candidate in my seat so I'll probably either have to stay at home or spoil the paper.
No good having opinions like that on here mate..most PB posters regard anyone to the left of Genghis Khan as a dangerous subversive
Bennett is a decent person and has made good speeches prior to her recent troubles. but Lucas is a real class act respected by all parties and by much of the press so she had a really tough act to follow
I wouldn't be surprised if another referendum occurred relatively soon, but it's far from certain.
MD, maybe not certain but very close unless Westminster ante up what they promised. They do not have a lot of time.
Part of the problem is that what was promised in "the vow" was not very clear, and not promised by an accountable body such as the UK parliament. Such further devolution should have been set out in advance. SNP MPs need to respect the same principles over rUK issues, or accept the primacy of Westminster over Holyrood, and with all that entails for devo-max.
The chums were very clear , it was lots of powers , Home Rule , etc , etc. People are waiting and watching for it to materialise.
Great post. In fairness it should be said that Nick Clegg (total popularity MINUS 66 in Scotland) has a ZERO rating for "very well" and Cameron (total popularity MINUS 44) achieves the dizzy heights of 5% very well!
Compare this with Salmond who achieved positive ratings through 7 years in office or Sturgeon who is now PLUS 40 per cent!
And yet you still lost so heavily in the referendum?
Do you think Ed Miliband is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party?
Very well 1 Fairly well 9 TOTAL WELL 10 Fairly badly 43 Very badly 42 TOTAL BADLY 85
THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POLLING FINDING OF THE DAY. MILLIBAND MINUS 75 IN SCOTLAND!
All very consistent with previous polling, I think the more air time and press coverage Milliband gets the worse things will get for SLAB - as more support melts away to the Greens, SNP, UKIP and even the LibDems.
Interesting to note that both Milliband and Murphy barely mentioned the SNP in their speeches yesterday. Maybe the penny has finally dropped that demonising a party with around 50% support is counterproductive.
Just spotted a tweet from Dundee East Labour Party indicating they are declining the Tony Blair £1000 "blood money". Wonder how many others on the 106 seat list will follow suit?
I was considering backing Conservative majority but not at 6.5, thought it would be higher than that.
Edit:
Just been on Spin and like the look of the Swingometer index, anyone considering backing a Tory majority should consider this buy at 57:
100 points if the Conservatives gain an overall majority 50 points if neither the Conservatives nor Labour gain an overall majority (i.e. a hung parliament or Lib Dem majority) 0 points if Labour gain an overall majority
I'm not so sure about that, nigel.
If you, for a moment, rule out a labour majority (which is brave), a SPIN buy bet on that market gives you 43 points in the case of con Maj, vs a loss of 7 points if it's NOM
In terms of fixed odds, that's 43/7 - or 6.14/1
But part of that bet is also laying a labour majority. To make buying the Spin bet better value than just taking a fixed odds Con maj bet @ 6.5, you'd have to think that chance of a labour majority is worse than 70/1. 'cos those are the odds you're effectively laying.
it's just struck me that you must now be the elder statesman of the PB Nats having been longer on the board than any other Nat - an achievement in Nattery by itself :-)
If you can stay on until the end of the year I'll award you the presitigeous Golden Turnip for services to Southerners.
Just spotted a tweet from Dundee East Labour Party indicating they are declining the Tony Blair £1000 "blood money". Wonder how many others on the 106 seat list will follow suit?
Somewhat meaningless response to a fairly empty gesture. How many 'vote SNP get Tory' flyers will a grand get you nowadays?
Just spotted a tweet from Dundee East Labour Party indicating they are declining the Tony Blair £1000 "blood money". Wonder how many others on the 106 seat list will follow suit?
Someone might like to point out that the last person other than Blair to win a Labour majority was Harold Wilson in 1966.
Margaret Curran the Shadow Sec of State for Scotland going to be on Sunday Politics. Once you watch her you will realise why the SNP is walking all over SLAB. She is a ranting harpy, vastly over promoted from being a Holyrood nonentity
If you need a stop candidate.. you need one for the Greens.. That Natalie woman is absolutely stark staring bonkers.
My main problem at the GE is that there doesn't seem to be any sign of there being a Green candidate in my seat so I'll probably either have to stay at home or spoil the paper.
"So your search for a disabled person being thrown out of their home didn't go as well as expected then?"
Don't be silly. We're talking national statistics and you're asking for names and addresses.
No I'm asking for one example. You said thousands have been evicted. Find one example, it shouldn't be difficult.
And then when you have that example, tell us what the political make-up of that council in the area he has been evicted from. And if (as I suspect) it is Labour, then tell us why they haven't spent the huge amount of money the Govt. has set aside for hardship cases.
Then consider that they might just be refusing to help such hardship cases - for purely party political advantage. To have ammo to fight the heartless bastard Tories with.
Then consider which is the real party of heartless bastards over the so-called "bedroom tax"....
For example, the vast majority of nurses are women. Most doctors are men. Compare the two and there'll be a sizeable 'gender' pay gap, but, in reality, it'll be an occupational pay gap. Women and men ought to be paid the same for the same work but the only way this can be assessed is by comparing like with like, and it's unclear whether we'll be getting that necessary detail, or a comparison so broad and flawed as to be actively misleading.
The BBC don't like it up em do they.... Nothing would please me more, they are bunch of arrogant sods who think they know what is best for us. The more the BBC get stabbed in the back the better and not just in the political sphere.
What tedious ill-thought out crap. Sky is the one that has been leading on this but your peurile hatred of the BBC gets the better of you.
This will be the same Mike Smithson with this on his CV?
"For 13 years Mike was a journalist with BBC News"
Admit it, you aren't exactly impartial on this are you Mike?
The Beeb may have its faults but it is saving us from Fox (basically what Sky could so easily become).
With many previously-safe Scottish seats looking precarious (Labour's position in Scotland seeming anything from a near wipe-out to very poor), and Labour's less-than-laden war chest; how much energy and money will the party pour into Scotland during the GE campaign? Although I doubt their position is as bad as the polling is showing, it'll be interesting to see how they prioritise the endangered Scottish seats over English and Welsh ones.
There is very little sign of Labour shifting its resourcs to Scotland and time is running out. Last year I started suggesting that Labour needed a massive shift to shore up SLAB. It was dismissed by the few Labour folk on here and NickPalmer said that it would not happen. The Labour party seem to think that SLAB does not really matter for their future. The Conservatives also thought that.....
For example, the vast majority of nurses are women. Most doctors are men. Compare the two and there'll be a sizeable 'gender' pay gap, but, in reality, it'll be an occupational pay gap. Women and men ought to be paid the same for the same work but the only way this can be assessed is by comparing like with like, and it's unclear whether we'll be getting that necessary detail, or a comparison so broad and flawed as to be actively misleading.
Those were (and I have no reason to suspect they have changed) the concerns of government with the measure. But they are helped by the restriction to larger firms (5,000+ employees) and the detail of what they will be required to produce will also try to take account of this. It is only an information measure; an employee will still have to show that they were not paid the same for equivalent work.
If the end result is that more women are made more senior, then that would probably fit with the overall government approach.
No good having opinions like that on here mate..most PB posters regard anyone to the left of Genghis Khan as a dangerous subversive
Bennett is a decent person and has made good speeches prior to her recent troubles. but Lucas is a real class act respected by all parties and by much of the press so she had a really tough act to follow
I was a mostly Conservative voter from 1997 through to 2014 myself and I credit (just a little) some of the more right wing posters on PB in helping me along my leftwards political journey.
Seriously though, Bennett's troubles don't really bother me at all. She's only human. People moan when politician are too slick and glib and then also start grumbling when they behave like normal human beings too. I agree with you that Lucas is a class act. She's certainly a more naturally adept orator - but her sometimes tendency towards stunt politics unnerves me a just a little. On the whole I prefer the more substance over style Bennett approach.
For example, the vast majority of nurses are women. Most doctors are men. Compare the two and there'll be a sizeable 'gender' pay gap, but, in reality, it'll be an occupational pay gap. Women and men ought to be paid the same for the same work but the only way this can be assessed is by comparing like with like, and it's unclear whether we'll be getting that necessary detail, or a comparison so broad and flawed as to be actively misleading.
At my local council, which along with many others, entered carried out an evaluation, auditing all jobs it was called 'single status'. It was horrific. Traditionally jobs as based on market rate.
The market rate for dinner ladies and teaching assistants is very low, because neither are skilled, and the supply of labour for people who only want to work school hours or part time is vast. These are traditionally done by women.
Compare that to a painter, or jobs that are based outside. Often such jobs are hard graft and time sensitive. These jobs are mainly male. They often included productivity and overtime bonuses negotiated by unions.
Theory was that people doing work of equal value should have equal pay.
*That* is what they want throughout the entire economy. Be frightened. Very frightened.
Legislating for debates seems extreme though it has been done in the States.
But as an idea of keeping Cameron`s lack of balls in the news,it is not a bad idea.
Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer has written a good piece on this topic.
Actually, ed's proposal is eminently sensible. All he is saying (I think) is: let's have a framework which applies boringly and automatically and uncontroversially, so we don't waste further time arguing about it. Like PPBs: there is a framework. There is no legislation which says that Party leaders must go to prison for failing to put out PPBs. The trouble is ed: he is so crap that if he says something sensible, we (all of us, not just his opponents) automatically pretend to misunderstand him, and have a laugh.
Similarly your lack of balls charge doesn't stick, because ed. You can say that someone is scared of Blair or Brown or David Miliband: may or may not be true, but it has the potential to be. But scared of ed = LOL. Sorry, but there it is. Moral: don't elect crap leaders. They are crap.
Like most of the Im Alright Jocks statements..its pure fantasy
After all Scotland is now an Independent country isnt it? Their private polling and some public polling by pollsters who should have known better all said it was gonna be
For example, the vast majority of nurses are women. Most doctors are men. Compare the two and there'll be a sizeable 'gender' pay gap, but, in reality, it'll be an occupational pay gap. Women and men ought to be paid the same for the same work but the only way this can be assessed is by comparing like with like, and it's unclear whether we'll be getting that necessary detail, or a comparison so broad and flawed as to be actively misleading.
This politically correct nonsense is a ratchet. Women are now paid the same for three sets of tennis as men are for five. Try arguing for "equality" there...
With many previously-safe Scottish seats looking precarious (Labour's position in Scotland seeming anything from a near wipe-out to very poor), and Labour's less-than-laden war chest; how much energy and money will the party pour into Scotland during the GE campaign? Although I doubt their position is as bad as the polling is showing, it'll be interesting to see how they prioritise the endangered Scottish seats over English and Welsh ones.
There is very little sign of Labour shifting its resourcs to Scotland and time is running out. Last year I started suggesting that Labour needed a massive shift to shore up SLAB. It was dismissed by the few Labour folk on here and NickPalmer said that it would not happen. The Labour party seem to think that SLAB does not really matter for their future. The Conservatives also thought that.....
A misquote, I think. What I remember saying was that we had no complaints about the level of support, which is primarily internal in the constituency and from neighbouring Nottingham members. If the party needs to move resources to Scotland that's OK - we'll manage with the local resources we have.
It is unacceptable for the SNP to be in a position to influence the government of the UK, even via C&S. Like SF in 1918, they are enemies of this state and a grand coalition, as suggested by 2 Tory elder statesmen, is preferable to a Lab-SNP arrangement, if no other combination commands an OM in the HoC. The Tories need to pursue EM's refusal to rule out collaboration with the SNP as unpatriotic. This might lead to a Scottish UDI, but IMO this is inevitable if the SNP do as well in 2015 as SF did in 1918.
2015 is not about independence unless the other parties make it about independence.
It is hard not to make it so if the will of the Scottish people is that they want their UK Parliamentary reps to overwhelmingly be in favour of independence. Sure it may not be first on the agenda immediately following the election, but it's hard not to imagine things heading down that route again as a result.
It is a certainty
Do they want MPS in favour of Independence or MPs not tied to a party that has much larger vested interests in a much larger country elsewhere further south?
I await the detail, if we get it before the election. They could still cock it up...
That article doesn't make clear that this was part of the Equality Act 2010 which Labour did not bring into force (hesitant, I think, enough to delay it beyond the election). Probably Labour and certainly the coalition were keen to use it as a stick to encourage voluntary take up, but clearly that hasn't worked. Although it might be interesting to look at what those five large firms that have complied have published, since they may well become the model for the compulsory scheme.
Can someone answer a question I have about Scottish Parliament elections? They are supposed to happen every four years but with this being a general election year they have been put back to 2016 to avoid a clash of voting systems.
My question is, when will the following set of Scottish elections take place? Assuming the next Westminster Parliament lasts five years, we'll be faced with the same problem with the next set of Scottish elections due to clash with the 2020 General Election.
So are we now in the position that Scottish Parliament terms are now five year terms? Or could the 2020 Scottish elections be brought forward to 2019?
Just spotted a tweet from Dundee East Labour Party indicating they are declining the Tony Blair £1000 "blood money". Wonder how many others on the 106 seat list will follow suit?
Someone might like to point out that the last person other than Blair to win a Labour majority was Harold Wilson in 1966.
Whether or not to accept it was one thing... tweeting about it quite another. Strange overall.
Like most of the Im Alright Jocks statements..its pure fantasy
After all Scotland is now an Independent country isnt it? Their private polling and some public polling by pollsters who should have known better all said it was gonna be"
Did she really? They bear no resemblance to the figures on last night's polls.
1) Local bulletein from the Torys about their council activities
2) UKIP A4 one sided flyer from the UKIP PPC with photo of him, his website, a lot of text about why we should vote UKIP asking for our votes and containing a cut out and send form for joining, donating, offering to leaflet, offering to display a poster or offering to help in any other ways.
Like most of the Im Alright Jocks statements..its pure fantasy
After all Scotland is now an Independent country isnt it? Their private polling and some public polling by pollsters who should have known better all said it was gonna be
Much as I enjoy Labourites' 'pure fantasy' of pretending their situation in Scotland isn't dire, page 2, last column on right.
All he is saying (I think) is: let's have a framework which applies boringly and automatically and uncontroversially, so we don't waste further time arguing about it. Like PPBs: there is a framework. There is no legislation which says that Party leaders must go to prison for failing to put out PPBs.
The two are not comparable. The "framework" as you term it for PPBs is a restrictive one. To prevent a flood of uncontrolled advertising. To limit them in terms of volume and content. To restrain them growing like Topsy.
The rather sinister You Must Talk To Me Act 2016 is aimed at artificially creating a permanent new phenomenon after only one previous outing.
We have too many laws as it is. Now is the time to be repealing them, not legislating for extra diary entries in a PMs schedule.
Just spotted a tweet from Dundee East Labour Party indicating they are declining the Tony Blair £1000 "blood money". Wonder how many others on the 106 seat list will follow suit?
Someone might like to point out that the last person other than Blair to win a Labour majority was Harold Wilson in 1966.
Whether or not to accept it was one thing... tweeting about it quite another. Strange overall.
Blair's name induces the same derangement among the left that Bush does.
Comments
Edit:
Just been on Spin and like the look of the Swingometer index, anyone considering backing a Tory majority should consider this buy at 57:
100 points if the Conservatives gain an overall majority
50 points if neither the Conservatives nor Labour gain an overall majority (i.e. a hung parliament or Lib Dem majority)
0 points if Labour gain an overall majority
On topic and as a member of the electorate in any future LD leadership election, I'm still to be convinced by Tim Farron though I have no issues with his passion or his view of liberalism. He represents the northern nonconformist tradition of the party which is fine and I hear nothing but good things about him as a local campaigner and constituency MP.
Norman Lamb is someone I know less about though I took great pleasure in him seeing off Iain Dale. He speaks well on health but I'm less certain where he stands on other areas.
I've long thought Tom Brake should go for the leadership but I suspect that's the last thing Tom Brake wants which is unfortunate.
Ed is not a dork, he is a nasty little sh8t.
To get power, he would happily go into coalition with the SNP.
This move would destroy England, the union, and his own party. But hey who cares. He would be prime minister for a while.
The only thing is, you could say the same about David Cameron.
"Torquay was the venue for UKIP’s 2015 South West Spring Conference today Saturday 7th March.
UKIP Chairman Steve Crowther quoted that the four places in the UK where UKIP had the highest votes in the European Elections last year were all in Devon.They were Torbay,Plymouth,North Devon and Torridge."
http://torbaytimes.co.uk/torbay-welcomes-ukips-south-west-spring-conference/
What a daft comment. You form a Government based on who is elected. All of this squealing about how dreadful it would be if the Scots were dictating English politics is provoking large guffaws here in Scotland. Particularly when it comes from the likes of Ken Baker who was quite happy for Englkand to dictate Scottish politics including the Poll Tax one year early when Baker was in office! What is "unacceptable" to you or Baker may look very attractive up here.
The vanity re-badging alone is enough to make me disregard them entirely.
and the rest of Scotland wouldnt touch him with a bargepole
Ditto Wales and Plaid ...
Ditto the Greens...
Of course he would also happily go into Govt with the loonies
and the fruitcakes and the racists as he dubbed them just to
cling on to being in office but not in power
Dave really is a ludicrous hypocrite
Roundshaw has a population of 8,000. Source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roundshaw
It dosent have its own ward because it is subsumed into the very large ward of Beddington South which also contains vast numbers of large 1930s semis full of Tory voters. A typical place where Labour voters are squeezed by tactical libdem votes in what is a very close Libdem/Tory marginal where the three winning candidates were 1) Libdem, 2) Tory and 3) Libdem in 2014. Additionally a major rebuild of the social housing there, now complete, would inevitably have depressed the labour turnout in recent years (1000 high rise flats demolished as part of it and replaced with low rise flats and houses)
While I had made an error in that a fair chunk of the St Helier estate is in Carshalton and Wallington (and is another reservoir of borrowed Labour voters) not all of it is. Sutton North and Stonecot within Sutton and Cheam also contain a good chunk of this vast LCC out county council estate. Sutton & Cheam also houses the large Worcester Park estate which is a further reservoir of borrowed Labour Voters.
It may be that Libdem will retain those borrowed labour voters (as they did in 2014 council elections, but both seats have only moderate Libdem majorities and a heavily squeezed Labour vote,
Carshalton & Wallington, although having the bigger Libdem Majority of 5,260; has a Labour vote squeezed from 11,565 in 1997 to 4,015 in 2010. A fall of two thirds and comfortably exceeding the Libdem majority.
Sutton and Cheam, with a much smaller Libdem Majority of 1,608 has seen the Labour vote fall from 7,280 to 3,376, double the Libdem majority.
In the 2014 Euro elections in LB Sutton, UKIP Came top with 16,345, Conservative Second 14,810, Libdem 3rd 12,104 and Lab 4th 7,958. Sutton was one of the few places in London that voted UKIP into 1st place. This dosent greatly surprise me as a lot of WWC has moved out there away from demographic change in Norbury, Thornton Heath, Mitcham and Streatham. It also shows that there is a big element of not tory in the Libdem vote.
Just consider a labour/SNP coalition for a moment. Given the regard the SNP have for England, it would be a bit like a labour/Vladimir Putin coalition.
The sensible labour MPs must be praying for defeat in May.
You, me and Uncle Tom Cobley are all ''all right'. We all could have a hugely successful career in politics just so long as we do not actually have to do anything, make any choices or upset anyone. Politics where all you do is protest is dead easy.
Fieldwork: 5th - 6th March 2015
Scotland
Do you think Ed Miliband is doing well or badly as leader
of the Labour party?
Very well 1
Fairly well 9
TOTAL WELL 10
Fairly badly 43
Very badly 42
TOTAL BADLY 85
THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POLLING FINDING OF THE DAY. MILLIBAND MINUS 75 IN SCOTLAND!
No, I’ve not heard of them before either….
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-31769776
Watching Nikki Morgan on Murnaghan reminded me to ask for the collective wisdom of PBers.
The holding of which seat by the Tories would make PBers think the game is over for Miliband?
The holding/winning of which seat by the Tories would make PBers think Cameron would seek to run a minority/majority government?
Interesting this morning to hear Philip Hammond say that he is focused on David Cameron re-entering No 10 on 8th May "without any little helper at his side".
Some deal over EVFEL with the SNP would be needed but no deal after that.
Frankly, I'm not sure Ed can even deliver. His marginal MPs will take one look at the SNPs proposals for legalised theft of English property to feed Scottish subsistence and weep.
Mass rebellions from Day 1, starting with his own chancellor.
The last election saw radically different results in apparently similar seats, and that probably wasn't a one off. The days of "there may be a couple of outliers but basically a 5% swing is a 5% swing" are dead, and the newspapers continuing on that line are behind the curve. These constituency polls are the future - whether or not Ashcroft's methodology turns out to be robust.
Sounds like the last few Scottish Lib Dem leaders. Does that approach work when you are struggling for continued recognition?
expect him to say?
I suppose it makes a change from him telling security to frogmarch
ex soldiers out of the Tory conference after the two old codgers
dared to try and make a point there in the defence debate
Although I doubt their position is as bad as the polling is showing (*), it'll be interesting to see how they prioritise the endangered Scottish seats over English and Welsh ones.
(*) I wonder how many of the ex-Labourites telling the pollsters they'll vote SNP will actually do so at the GE. It would not surprise me if there is a certain amount of rollback on the day.
I think people are forgetting that the game is about to change, because Scotland is getting extensive extra powers.
Any party that goes into coalition with the SNP after these changes will be taking a huge risk, because Scotland will be a de facto separate country.
This is nothing to Ed Miliband. But it will mean plenty to his MPs. Plenty.
In Labour's corner they have
1. The Lib Dems. Their only sensible strategy is to try to show that had it not been for them it would have been worse. As soon as parliament is dissolved they'll spill the beans and beg the country for forgiveness. No one does self flagellation like Vince
2. IDS. Probably the most unattractive symbol of poor-bashing since Marie Antoinette. Maybe a 48 sheet next to Justin Beiber's crotch on Cambridge Circus?
3. The Scots. Though no friends of Labour no one has articulated Tory values quite as powerfully as the Scots have. And they're on the long march South...
4. Altruistic Monaco based multi billionaires who would like to see Tory Party remain in office
5. Rupert Murdoch.
The obvious answer to a heavy defeat would be to swing to someone who's always been more than sceptical about the Coalition. But members who've stuck with the party tend to be warmer to the Coalition (the coldest have left) and in held seats with MPs who may be sceptical about Farron.
The unattributed comment after one vote about whether the colleague liked Farron - "What bit of the sanctimonious, god-bothering, treacherous little sh1t is there not to like?" - has some purchase. If there was a vote now, he'd take it, but there is that element which could get traction.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1499466/Heckler-82-who-dared-called-Straw-a-liar-is-held-under-terrorist-law.html
He looks more desperate by the minute.
He may not be leader for more than a couple of years, but he seems the best choice to see that difficult process through.
David Cameron?
There won't be a Labour SNP coalition, so you can conserve your wheesht .
You really do come across as anti-SNP. As it happens I did a dissertation on this very subject. Salmond said for many years that "in his judgement/view" constitutional referendum were "likely" to be a "once in a political generation" referencing the example of devo votes in 1979 and 2007.
He never departed from this script over many years and often pointed out that he could not determine the future but that it was his opinion. There is nothing in this that binds his successor and nothing which suggests a "lie" except in the minds of people with pre-determined views.
My main problem at the GE is that there doesn't seem to be any sign of there being a Green candidate in my seat so I'll probably either have to stay at home or spoil the paper.
Looking at LibDem seats, there are those which they have traditionally held on and off since the days the Liberals were a truly national party of government. These seats are indeed the Celtic fringe. We are now going to see whether the LibDems can hold on to the seats they started to win from 1987 onwards. In Scotland the answer is unlikely.
An example of the man not party is my home seat. Bob MacLennan took the seat for Labour from the Liberals in the 1960s. Bob MacLennan then joined the Gang of 4 and held the seat in 1983 as an SDP candidate and eventually held the seat as a LibDem.
An example of the party not the man was my childhood home seat. Sir Tam Galbraith (Lord Strathclyde's father) was deeply disliked, known as the invisible man and we only saw him at election time. Nevertheless he held Glasgow Hillhead from 1948 until his death in 1981. In 1979 the majorities of the 4 district or 2 regional council seats which made up the constituency were more than double his parliamentary majority. He got re-elected because he was the Tory candidate. Across the city Teddy Taylor had defied gravity by holding on to Glasgow Cathcart even after the boundary changes lumped a huge council estate Castlemilk into his seat. However somewhat ironically, his luck ran out in 1979, just as he was on the point of being appointed to Margaret Thatcher's 1st cabinet.
And if he feels he need to chase you through kitchens as Brown did to Obama at the UN then you're going supermax for a long long time.
Great post. In fairness it should be said that Nick Clegg (total popularity MINUS 66 in Scotland) has a ZERO rating for "very well" and Cameron (total popularity MINUS 44) achieves the dizzy heights of 5% very well!
Compare this with Salmond who achieved positive ratings through 7 years in office or Sturgeon who is now PLUS 40 per cent!
posters regard anyone to the left of Genghis Khan as
a dangerous subversive
Bennett is a decent person and has made good speeches prior
to her recent troubles. but Lucas is a real class act respected
by all parties and by much of the press so she had a really
tough act to follow
Well it's a slow morning malc, tell me what's on your shopping list.
"So your search for a disabled person being thrown out of their home didn't go as well as expected then?"
Don't be silly. We're talking national statistics and you're asking for names and addresses.
Interesting to note that both Milliband and Murphy barely mentioned the SNP in their speeches yesterday. Maybe the penny has finally dropped that demonising a party with around 50% support is counterproductive.
If you, for a moment, rule out a labour majority (which is brave), a SPIN buy bet on that market gives you 43 points in the case of con Maj, vs a loss of 7 points if it's NOM
In terms of fixed odds, that's 43/7 - or 6.14/1
But part of that bet is also laying a labour majority. To make buying the Spin bet better value than just taking a fixed odds Con maj bet @ 6.5, you'd have to think that chance of a labour majority is worse than 70/1. 'cos those are the odds you're effectively laying.
it's just struck me that you must now be the elder statesman of the PB Nats having been longer on the board than any other Nat - an achievement in Nattery by itself :-)
If you can stay on until the end of the year I'll award you the presitigeous Golden Turnip for services to Southerners.
But as an idea of keeping Cameron`s lack of balls in the news,it is not a bad idea.
Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer has written a good piece on this topic.
[Welcome back. Seems a while since you posted last].
Then consider that they might just be refusing to help such hardship cases - for purely party political advantage. To have ammo to fight the heartless bastard Tories with.
Then consider which is the real party of heartless bastards over the so-called "bedroom tax"....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31779773
For example, the vast majority of nurses are women. Most doctors are men. Compare the two and there'll be a sizeable 'gender' pay gap, but, in reality, it'll be an occupational pay gap. Women and men ought to be paid the same for the same work but the only way this can be assessed is by comparing like with like, and it's unclear whether we'll be getting that necessary detail, or a comparison so broad and flawed as to be actively misleading.
The unthinkable happens at times.
Where did you get those figures from?
If the end result is that more women are made more senior, then that would probably fit with the overall government approach.
Seriously though, Bennett's troubles don't really bother me at all. She's only human. People moan when politician are too slick and glib and then also start grumbling when they behave like normal human beings too. I agree with you that Lucas is a class act. She's certainly a more naturally adept orator - but her sometimes tendency towards stunt politics unnerves me a just a little. On the whole I prefer the more substance over style Bennett approach.
The market rate for dinner ladies and teaching assistants is very low, because neither are skilled, and the supply of labour for people who only want to work school hours or part time is vast. These are traditionally done by women.
Compare that to a painter, or jobs that are based outside. Often such jobs are hard graft and time sensitive. These jobs are mainly male. They often included productivity and overtime bonuses negotiated by unions.
Theory was that people doing work of equal value should have equal pay.
*That* is what they want throughout the entire economy. Be frightened. Very frightened.
Similarly your lack of balls charge doesn't stick, because ed. You can say that someone is scared of Blair or Brown or David Miliband: may or may not be true, but it has the potential to be. But scared of ed = LOL. Sorry, but there it is. Moral: don't elect crap leaders. They are crap.
Like most of the Im Alright Jocks statements..its pure fantasy
After all Scotland is now an Independent country isnt it? Their
private polling and some public polling by pollsters who should
have known better all said it was gonna be
That article doesn't make clear that this was part of the Equality Act 2010 which Labour did not bring into force (hesitant, I think, enough to delay it beyond the election). Probably Labour and certainly the coalition were keen to use it as a stick to encourage voluntary take up, but clearly that hasn't worked. Although it might be interesting to look at what those five large firms that have complied have published, since they may well become the model for the compulsory scheme.
My question is, when will the following set of Scottish elections take place? Assuming the next Westminster Parliament lasts five years, we'll be faced with the same problem with the next set of Scottish elections due to clash with the 2020 General Election.
So are we now in the position that Scottish Parliament terms are now five year terms? Or could the 2020 Scottish elections be brought forward to 2019?
"Shes made them up
Like most of the Im Alright Jocks statements..its pure fantasy
After all Scotland is now an Independent country isnt it? Their
private polling and some public polling by pollsters who should
have known better all said it was gonna be"
Did she really? They bear no resemblance to the figures on last night's polls.
So far this year we have had
1) Local bulletein from the Torys about their council activities
2) UKIP A4 one sided flyer from the UKIP PPC with photo of him, his website, a lot of text about why we should vote UKIP asking for our votes and containing a cut out and send form for joining, donating, offering to leaflet, offering to display a poster or offering to help in any other ways.
Who is the pollster?
scotslass said:
Sample Size: 1754 GB Adults
Fieldwork: 5th - 6th March 2015
Scotland
Do you think Ed Miliband is doing well or badly as leader
of the Labour party?
Very well 1
Fairly well 9
TOTAL WELL 10
Fairly badly 43
Very badly 42
TOTAL BADLY 85
THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POLLING FINDING OF THE DAY. MILLIBAND MINUS 75 IN SCOTLAND!
http://tinyurl.com/olh8vb6
The rather sinister You Must Talk To Me Act 2016 is aimed at artificially creating a permanent new phenomenon after only one previous outing.
We have too many laws as it is. Now is the time to be repealing them, not legislating for extra diary entries in a PMs schedule.
Sub-Sample size is 153
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2984619/The-moment-knew-son-going-jail-swinging-Union-Jack-Cenotaph-wife-Pink-Floyd-guitarist.html
There's a shock.