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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Saturday night polls have the battle very tight
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Saturday night polls have the battle very tight
ENGLAND ONLY figures from Opinium/Observer poll
CON 36
LAB 33
LD 8
UKIP 14
GRN 7
Represents a 4.2% CON to LAB swing in England since GE10
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UKIP % holding up nicely considering all of the negative programmes broadcast the last couple of weeks.
I wonder when/if we will start to see the Con/Lab vote share increase at the expense of the insurgent parties. It was supposedly going to happen months ago and has yet to happen.
http://kpedley.podbean.com/e/polling-matters-ep-12-political-betting-w-matt-shaddick-from-ladbrokes/
If you've only got time to listen to one of these though, ignore mine and head straight for the one with Chris Hanretty which I found very informative.
People support the idea of leaders debates by 69% to 19% and by 57% to 8% think they are good for democracy
The 7-7-2 format of leaders debates is supported by 45% of people
The idea of just a straight debate between Cameron and Miliband is supported by 42% of people, opposed by 42% of people
If David Cameron doesn't agree to take part in the TV debates 55% think they should go ahead without him
50% of people think that Cameron is scared of debating the other party leaders, 32% that he isn't
38% blame Cameron for the breakdown in the debate negotiations, 13% the broadcasters, 23% both equally
Victory for Dave?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_hoqeyW8AEgXNb.png
Both have UKIP at the lower end of the spectrum
I expect Dave's ratings will take a hit with Ipsos-Mori.
Maybe Monday?
Cameron might yet be a lucky general.
And I repeat, will this be before or after the official campaign starts?
(the answer to this might give Brave Dave pause for thought)
@simonblackwell: @PippaCrerar @iainmartin1 I'm glad we stopped. Difficult to beat reality now.
@iainmartin1: @simonblackwell You wouldn't have scripted an Opposition leader making it a crime to not have TV debates. Too silly. @PippaCrerar
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Oh, Ed.
Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar
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Election debates enshrined in law? For real?! It's getting more The Thick of It as every day passes.
That said, as with most issues, how much salience does the topic of TV debates have?
Having clear guidance on any future debates is silly?
Interesting. What other bits of electoral law are silly my ranting blue friends?
Ed potentially had a really strong hand there for 24 hours. Has he no advisers?
Coming next: legislation to enshrine in statute the principle that everything must be nice, and nothing must be nasty. And to outlaw voting conservative.
At the moment it is a straight trade off between the electoral efficiency advantage that Labour has in England and the melt down Labour are suffering in Scotland. In 2005 that advantage was worth about 100 seats in England. It will not be that much this time but I still think being on the Labour side of that bet is the smart place to be.
Stephen Pollard ✔ @stephenpollard
Ed Miliband's message this weekend is that he wants to pass a law to make other party leaders talk to him. Really.
Just saying
Either Cameron got very likely, or the people advising him are bloody geniuses.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_hr3TgVEAArxMK.jpg
We will go through this very slowly for you.
Why does Dave claim the debates are not taking place this time?
(take your time, and you can confer)
I said the Tories wouldn't get a majority in 2015 a while ago, and have been betting accordingly.
Now at this point I will have to hurry you, or throw it open to your fellow participants.
Beginning?
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Miliband wants a law to compel politicians to attend TVdebates. I want a law to stop politicians proposing silly laws
No, they are all experts here, and know "stuff".
They tell me all the time
Perhaps though you could help them out?
"Duo Electro Velvet picked for UK Eurovision entry"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-31769776
So as it stands, Cameron gets a free soft soap documentary, while Ed gets a Paxman grilling for 90 minutes.
Lucy Powell deserves all of the plaudits she is getting for this campaign...
Dave said that he was keen on the idea of the debates as they were good for democracy, but the reason why we aren't having them this time is because of the confusion that the broadcasters caused.
7 leaders, before then end of the month. Take it or leave it.
Ed is fretting because he can't get a private one on one, something no PM has ever agreed to. He'll be chasing Cameron through the kitchens at this rate like Brown after Obama.
Even when Cameron makes a mistake like these debates you can count on Ed doing something even more stupid. His party must be so regretting not replacing him when there was time.
God bless ed.
And the leftie dweebariat continue to warble to one another about debates.
I'm looking forward to it ;-)
Oh there are several other things we will warble about, and the best bit is, the blue team are too blinded to see them coming down the road.
'Dave said that he was keen on the idea of the debates as they were good for democracy'
And Ed would do OK provided he didn't soil himself.
He might well do, but Cameron won't, because he already has, and will be hiding with "nursey" while the big boys carry on
But don't worry. the little lamb will have his very own private party with his little toy and puppet friends.
In Florida, it is illegal to pass wind in a public place after 6pm on Thursdays
In Canada, by law, one out of every five songs on the radio must be sung by a Canadian
Running out of petrol is illegal on Germany's autobahn, and so is walking along it
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-2856346/It-illegal-not-smile-Milan-no-donkeys-sleep-bath-Oklahoma-strangest-laws-word.html
Iain Martin @iainmartin1
Only one consolation on insane idea by Mili E to make TV debates law. Too many sensible, grown-up Labour people won't let him post-election
*Sigh*
It would be highly unlikely, but non attendance at any future debate would be guided by the principles of the act, so the broadcasters would not have to make it up as they go along.
* Opposition leader must appear stark naked.
@GeneralBoles: Inspiring message from #Ukip http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/07/ukip-100-second-places-may-election-nigel-farage …
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_hx9sfXEAEq5GE.jpg
How do you know that ?
There are huge numbers who know what they DON'T want. And that is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister.
I think Rod Crosby is entirely right to focus on the qualities of the leaders as the primer for how people will vote. I reckon there are going to be very large movements at the end of the election campaign, as people finally hold their nose and vote Tory. No great enthusiasm in their vote, but the idea of Ed Miliband in Downing Street scares the bejeezus out of the voters I have been talking to today.
Theoretically the government could order you to wear a dunces cap and stop acting like an idiot, but it will probably not even make it to the first stage.
Health secretary has withheld damning management study by former M&S boss Stuart Rose for political reasons, claims Tory MP Sarah Wollaston
On one level Miliband is a joke. On another he is terrifying.
Anything he doesn't like will get a law passed against it? Where will it end?
Make a sarcastic reference to the Labour party on a blog - go to jail.
Suggest that the great leader may be wrong - life sentence.
Complain that you pay too much tax - fine of half remaining salary.
That he is even thinking like he does, and that there is even a remote possibility that he might become PM, is very very worrying.
Cameron +85%
Farage +79%
Clegg +47%
Miliband +34%
http://t.co/zK3Ac4UiNw
Senior government officials have made it known that Rose’s report is strongly critical of management systems in the NHS – findings that are potentially damaging for the Tories before an election in which the NHS is centre stage.
There are also suggestions that the report implies that the government’s own NHS reforms, steered through by Hunt’s predecessor Andrew Lansley, may have made matters worse.
Though at least Brown had quite a few sane people around... Ed may have nationalists and Greens egging him on.
OK, I'm scared!
ED MILIBAND is at “war” with the Unite union, Labour’s biggest donor, over whether the woman at the heart of the Falkirk vote-rigging row should be given the chance to become an MP.
Senior Labour insiders fear that the showdown over Karie Murphy, a close friend of union leader Len McCluskey, could cost the party a £1.5m donation they are expecting to help bankroll the election campaign, a source revealed.
Unite wants Murphy on the shortlist of potential Labour candidates for Halifax, where the sitting MP, Linda Riordan, is standing down. Miliband is determined to stop that happening but panicking aides are split because some fear that the party could miss out on funding, according to the senior Labour source.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1528438.ece
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I resent Ed's debates laws for many reasons: the fact I'm going to have to write it up when I get home the No.1. But also it's stupid.
It would be highly unlikely because we live in a parliamentary democracy, and such a bill would not garner the support of the house.
I know this is complicated stuff for you, but you will hopefully learn. ( but not highly likely I am afraid)
They will probably still pay up...
Just been attending A Big Dinner event run jointly by my rotary club Tain and District jointly with our neighbouring one East Sutherland for the 500 miles charity. Delighted that we raised over £700 for such an excellent cause.
http://jamsidedown.com/files/2012/12/pile-of-books-3.jpg
For a bit of balance, a lifetime Labour voter thought Miliband was great. He may have been taking the piss though.
Even his own party thinks Ed is crap.
Independent report found Lansley overhaul left structures so “complex, confusing and bureaucratic” that the organisation of the service “is not fit for purpose”.
It also said the changes wasted the time of NHS bosses, who were “distracted as they were required to re-arrange the deckchairs rather than navigate safely past the iceberg” of growing demand at a time of acute financial pressure.
It also said the reforms led to a loss of talented senior NHS leaders by creating an array of new organisations, each responsible for areas such as hospitals or public health, meaning that no one was in overall charge and that there was a leadership vacuum.
Never have predicted that!!
And those are the Labour voters who have stayed with the party. The position is actually much worse - because of those who have left Labour because of Ed.
Dr David Wrigley @DavidGWrigley 6m6 minutes ago
So @sarahwollaston says @Jeremy_Hunt is covering up report that exposes truth about Tory disastrous Health Act
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/07/jeremy-hunt-accused-cover-up-critical-nhs-report-tory-mp