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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a ve
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a very different election and could impact on results
One of the many unique features of May 7th is the polling. We’ve never had so much and we’ve never seen so many studies of individual battlegrounds. Lord Ashcroft alone has produced more than 160 of them and there is hardly a key seat where we haven’t got any information.
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Who said there is increased talk among Scottish unionists about anti-SNP voting? There may be talk among half a dozen London based, Scots born journalists but that's it!
In Scotland, the Scots Tories have launched full scale campaigns right across the country including in many so called no hope seats. Evidence the squads of Young Tories out leafleting today in various Glasgow seats, in SNP and LibDem held seats, in Edinburgh and of course across the Borders where the Ashcroft polls have shown this week the Tory vote is holding up well.
Mr. Easterross, the idea of a Con-Lab Grand Coalition seems unlikely to me. That said, it'd give the reds a lovely excuse to throw Miliband overboard.
Polling (Ashcroft??) apparently shows Charlie Elphicke is reckoned to be safe in Dover / Deal and so resources are going from there into Thanet S.
I have been transposing the Ashcroft seat polls on to the wonderful Andy JS marginal seat spreadsheet. Pudsey at Tory target 22 is where the Labour success starts to break down and it is noticeable how small the Ashcroft Labour lead was in many seats when he polled them last year.
My gut feel from canvassing is that Farage will be close but not quite there.
But it is close.
The fact that Mackginlay (con) is ex -UKIP is helping to shore up the vote in strong UKIP leaning areas such as Sandwich.
The problem for Farage might be that he will have to spend a lot of time campaigning Nationally and so his actual time in the Constituency will be therefore limited.
It is a straight Blue /Purple fight. The question is will the Labour vote split to "stop the Tory or stop Farage"
Thanks for that Robert – not been able to get vanilla comments up all morning – also yesterday was touch and go.
In Aberdeenshire West it is looking like Tory v SNP and Alexander Burnett the local born and bred Tory candidate is getting loads of support from the Aberdeen Universities CF groups as well as a very well established Constituency Association. Across the Borders, David Mundell and Fin Carson can point to Ashcroft showing Mundell just hanging on and Fin Carson now the main opposition to the SNP in D+G with only 4% in it. Would be fascinating to try and work out what is happening in Michael Moore's seat.
[It's not serious. I'm just annoyed with myself].
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/scottish-labour-partys-new-proposed-clause-iv-full-text/
"To these ends we work for the patriotic interest of the people of Scotland:"
What was it Dr Johnson said of patriotism
"In Scotland there’s increasing talk of pro-unionist tactical voting and you can bet that the parties seen to be best placed to stop the SNP will go to great lengths to highlight Ashcroft numbers to demonstrate their case. "
Mundell is in deep trouble now after the Ashcroft poll showing him neck and neck with the SNP. I expect more anti-Tory voting for the SNP than anti-SNP voting for the Tories.
Interestingly that does not necessarily mean that the Tories will be completely wiped out in Scotland, though it probably does. I remember that in 2005 GE they lost there only seat but replaced it with Mundell.
What has my life come to...
(Or at least I would have been, if Vanilla hadn't been broken when I witnessed this thread being posted early this morning).
It will also be interesting to see if either Cameron or Miliband visit South Thanet - or the general area - during the campaign. If they don't, then Farage can point out that they don't care about the people in that part of England.
Indeed, the Ashcroft polling shows that the SNP are plainly breaking through the plausibility barrier, and a vote for the SNP is much less likely to be seen as risking being wasted. So the UKGE voting pattern is shifting far more to the underlying one which is seen at Holyrood.
Neither is a particularly original observation but they do need to be remembered in the current discussion, as indeed you imply.
There is also the question of the ethics and morality of the Unionist parties refighting a general election as if it were indyref, at the same time as trying to claim that Scottish MPs should not be allowed to have their full role in the Parliament of the UK. That sort of thinking will destroy the UK very rapidly without the pro-independence side having to do anything more than spectate while sitting happily on their thumbs.
Has it been measured>?
Edit: until recently, of course.
The take away message is pile on SNP, there are still plenty of value bets.
Certainly he has made us aware that decapitation of the Liberals possible and showed Tory's in Tory/Lib marginals in clear detail what they have to do to overthrow the liberal.
It has to be remembered what the keys to a Tory majority are.
1) Don't waste too much effort trying to win extra seats off Labour
1) Hold their existing Tory held Tory/Labour Marginals (although places like Bolton West and Southampton Itchen are worth a crack at, espeically if UKIP take a good chunk of the WWC vote)
2) Take the Tory/Liberal Marginals. As many as possible of the Thirty Lib/Tory marginals with a Lib majority of up to 7,647 (Lewes)
It must not be forgotten that in 2010, if the Tories had won those 30 Tory/Libdem marginals, just about all of which were Tory seats before 1992, they would have won 336 seats and had a workable majority of 22 or 27 including Sinn Fein abstensions.
Thought for the day. Did Cameron and Gideon agree to the Scottish referendum, precisely because one effect of it might well be to electorally destroy Labour north of the border?
I think TNS first started doing general election polls, in collaboration with The People? Back during the 2010 campaign?
It was pretty obvious right from the start that Labour would be so badly damaged that this would be a very nice consolation prize for the SNP. Though there has also been serious damage to other British national institutions - for instance the BBC is now more distrusted than trusted in Scotland.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlabgap.html#tactical
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2983593/Jeremy-Vine-daughter-10-company-director-lower-tax-bill.html
I wonder what Ed thinks about this kind of tax avoidance?
first sign of Scotland going Tory.
Companies Act (2006) s.157(1) : "A person may not be appointed a director of a company unless he has attained the age of 16 years."
(because, I suspect you can't be a director of a company below the age of 16 or 18)
edit: indigo beat me too it. And with facts as well. Bah!
Interesting tweet a few minutes ago. Zac Goldsmith predicting Vince Cable and Twickenham could be the Michael Portillo moment of GE2015
Solar power plant FRYS BIRDS IN FLIGHT! OMG!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2965070/Solar-farm-sets-130-birds-FIRE-Extreme-glow-power-plant-ignites-creatures-mid-air-tests.html
(I'm not sure why anyone would be surprised by this)
In some ways didn't it become a euphemism for ABC voting - anyone but Conservatives?
My point was more I wonder if in Ed Miliband's book this is ok, could be ok, definitely not ok? And of course the BBC massive hypocrisy over out cry of other people taking "vanilla" steps to reduce their tax bills, while most of the "stars" who work at the BBC have had these setups.
By the way, have you had a look at the online National? It'll be a lot more accessible to you now (seriously).
The only Gideon I've known was posh-ish Anglo Welsh.
Edit: ha, looked up Gideon on Wiki - 'he that bruises or breaks; a destroyer'.
Der Spiegel going after NATO for their repeatedly false statements on the Ukraine. Shame Cameron and the media continue to take their orders from Washington rather than putting this country's interests first.
PS UKIP activists from all over East Kent are turning out for Farage so if that isn't happening for the Tories too then clearly they have other seats in trouble (or just as likely their local associations are moribund)
Would you prefer me to refer to him as Gidiot which is what most people I know refer to him as?
If you must know people I know refer to him as Gideon or -ot as a reference to class and perceived upper elite out of touchness with the reality of most peoples lives. Its nor exactly a common name in council estates and comprehensive schools is it?
Nonetheless, probably better to be known as Gideon than Dwayne Dibbley as our poor old opposition was dubbed in the Tory press years ago. In any case, if Wikipedia is to believed he is still actually called Gideon, he added the name George not replaced
That government will tear England. and itself, to shreds
Although my dad had an old saying: "I don't care what you call me, as long as you don't call me late for dinner." ;-)
(I'm probably unusual in that I go by two names. It's traditional in our family to call the boys by their second names. But I hate that name, so when I went to uni I got to be called by my first name. It got slightly confusing for people when the two worlds collided)
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/roll-of-honour.html#comment-form
@paulhutcheon: Breaking: @unitetheunion is opposing Jim Murphy's proposed changes to the @scottishlabour constitution
As for common courtesy, its common courtesy - unless you are a statist or socialist - not to shaft stay at home mothers with the tax system while throwing taxpayers money at subsidies for Day Orphanages who of course just up their fees in response because you cannot buck the market.
http://www.nottinghampost.com/close-time/story-26131283-detail/story.html
In my view, if someone explicitly decides that he wants to be called X rather than Y then it's only polite to use his given name
LD: 4544
SNP: 8173
This assumes a universal swing against the LD putting them on 6.76% nationally.
The reality check is that assuming the Conservatives get 16% nationally then the SNP lose Banff & Buchan.
Best result from the model is Dumfries & Galloway:
Con: 16042
Lab: 16582
SNP: 16538
EDIT: At 14% Conservative then SNP retain Banff & Buchan.
They have Kezia Dugdale and Jim Murphy with two "members of the public" interviewing them and more often than not they don't get the answers they want/expect.
For example, Kezia "and what about zero hours contracts and low wages, how does that effect you". Bloke "it doesn't, not at all".
My coat, please!
They aren't holding it in a brewery are they?
BRAN = British Regular Adjustment Nexus
http://www.thenational.scot/politics/poll-analysis-methodology-may-even-mean-scotlands-ruling-party-is-being-underestimated.796
Classic use of nominalisation.
Which 'quarters' are they James?
'Daily Mail readers'?
His comment on past vote weighting is fair - but since he's (almost) never seen a bad poll for the SNP, I fear he takes his mission to 'correct the inbuilt Unionist bias in the media' beyond the bounds of reasonable analysis.
He's an articulate cheer leader for the Nationalists - and nothing wrong with that.
But he's no Anthony Wells nor Professor Curtice.
I must say it was very obliging of my local club to move grounds to somewhere near me just after I evacuated from Streatham after nearly forty years to come to Mid Beds.
Paparazzi attempting to get illegal access to my ARSE
Off to change my pants now.
"Say that questions are being asked about the report"
"What if they haven't ?"
"Ask some, then they have!"
Frankly any VI poll that doesn't use IndyRef recall to weight is a touch suspect in my view.
Now come on, politicians are fair game on this sort of thing. I call refer tp Farage as Nargle Fargle even though I'm planning to vote UKIP. I obviously wouldn't refer to him as Gideon in a more formal setting unless I knew him well enough to wind him up intentionally (which I obviously don't).
Its when such names are obviously abusive or refer to a disability that it is beyond the pale (e.g.: if someone came up with a mocking name for Gordon Brown or for example published photos of him with a pirates eye mask based upon his loss of one eye).
The thing is, if you say Gideon, everyone immediately knows who you mean as there isn't anyone else in public life with the name Gideon (reputidated or otherwise).
Not that she has an answer for any of them, just by stating them it is sufficient.
There must be a case for granting Ireland Test status, especially as England likes to help out by poaching your show ponies and finding out they are not as good as they are cracked up to be.
Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will concentrate on the 2010 result, where the Conservative Anne Marie Morris won by 523 votes over the Liberal Democrat Richard Younger-Ross.
The [June 2014] poll in Newton Abbot (with changes on 2010 GE) is:Tactically vote your way out of that one.