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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how mu

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  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @felix
    Way to much fun winding you lot up I am afraid, Try the usual course, and whine at OGH to ban me
  • The problem with pay day loans is that with a lot of firms you can roll over the principal amount 12 times and only pay the interest due on a monthly basis.

    I've seen people take out a payday loan of £150 for a month and roll it forward 11 times so they've paid back over a grand to repay it. So the APR can be useful on payday loans because it can take a year to repay it.

    We've let some of the poorest and most vulnerable people in society exploited because of their situation.

    Usury was a crime and the coalition should be delighted they've made the life of payday lenders harder.

    Exodus 22:24 (25)—If thou lend money to any of My people, even to the poor with thee, thou shalt not be to him as a creditor; neither shall ye lay upon him interest.
  • Our host found some approval for this morning's thread:

    Will Scobie ‏@willscobie · 7m7 minutes ago
    Excellent @MSmithsonPB piece about #SouthThanet. UKIP is disappearing on the doorstep. We are feeling confident. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/24/betting-that-farage-wont-do-it-in-thanet-south-is-starting-to-look-like-a-good-proposition/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363
    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:


    Thanks. It's extraordinary that unionists should advocate such a doctrine (of Scots not being allowed to decide on UK matters) - an extremely quick way of wrecking the UK from its centre. I've seen it not just on PB but from prominent Tories and also LDs (from what I gather).

    I've never heard an LD esposuse this so if someone can find me a quote I'll be asuitably admonished.

    Can't argue with the rationale of all UK MPs having a say on matters affecting the whole of the UK whatever their view on the continued existence of the UK in its present form. As democratically elected representatives they have a right to be in the Commons and a right to vote on such legislation if they choose.

    It would surprise me greatly too - given LD's long tradition of home rule - so I wouldn't dream of admonishing you: it may just be a one-off personal comment and I certainly don't expect it to be party policy. And to refer to LDs in the plural was probably incorrect of me. But have a listen to the clip therein and see what you think.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-horrifying-thought/
    Not listened to it but it's Norman Lamb isn't it. SNP will most likely have more MPs than Lib Dems anyway :p and that is UK wide.
    just wondering, why do you say 'it's Norman Lamb' in that, I presume, tone of voice? I'd be interested to know ...

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    On Topic.
    I think turnout will be close to, but under 70%.
    Scotland alone will boost the turnout figures by about 1%.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    Our host found some approval for this morning's thread:

    Will Scobie ‏@willscobie · 7m7 minutes ago
    Excellent @MSmithsonPB piece about #SouthThanet. UKIP is disappearing on the doorstep. We are feeling confident. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/24/betting-that-farage-wont-do-it-in-thanet-south-is-starting-to-look-like-a-good-proposition/

    Neutral source?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:


    Thanks. It's extraordinary that unionists should advocate such a doctrine (of Scots not being allowed to decide on UK matters) - an extremely quick way of wrecking the UK from its centre. I've seen it not just on PB but from prominent Tories and also LDs (from what I gather).

    I've never heard an LD esposuse this so if someone can find me a quote I'll be asuitably admonished.

    Can't argue with the rationale of all UK MPs having a say on matters affecting the whole of the UK whatever their view on the continued existence of the UK in its present form. As democratically elected representatives they have a right to be in the Commons and a right to vote on such legislation if they choose.

    It would surprise me greatly too - given LD's long tradition of home rule - so I wouldn't dream of admonishing you: it may just be a one-off personal comment and I certainly don't expect it to be party policy. And to refer to LDs in the plural was probably incorrect of me. But have a listen to the clip therein and see what you think.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-horrifying-thought/
    Not listened to it but it's Norman Lamb isn't it. SNP will most likely have more MPs than Lib Dems anyway :p and that is UK wide.
    just wondering, why do you say 'it's Norman Lamb' in that, I presume, tone of voice? I'd be interested to know ...

    Remembered him coming out with it on Question Time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Smarmeron said:

    @MarqueeMark
    Last alcohol I had was a half can of some Mexican lager one of the neighbours handed in by way of an apology, and before that it was two pints of draught with a meal just after Christmas.
    How are you getting along?

    As I have said on here many a time, lifelong tee-totaller....
  • Mr. Isam, typical Capricorn.

    More seriously, I'm sure I've read, quite some time ago, of a Conservative MP (who may have been on the Health Select Committee) air such nonsense views.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @MarqueeMark
    Last alcohol I had was a half can of some Mexican lager one of the neighbours handed in by way of an apology, and before that it was two pints of draught with a meal just after Christmas.
    How are you getting along?

    As I have said on here many a time, lifelong tee-totaller....
    Good to see I'm not the only one!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Smarmeron said:

    @MarqueeMark
    Last alcohol I had was a half can of some Mexican lager one of the neighbours handed in by way of an apology, and before that it was two pints of draught with a meal just after Christmas.
    How are you getting along?

    As I have said on here many a time, lifelong tee-totaller....
    Good to see I'm not the only one!
    I suspect you may have some higher spiritual basis for your position; I'm just faddy!!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Mr. Isam, typical Capricorn.

    More seriously, I'm sure I've read, quite some time ago, of a Conservative MP (who may have been on the Health Select Committee) air such nonsense views.

    Same chap. Champions alt meds, and specifically homeopathy. Genuine loon.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @MarqueeMark
    Last alcohol I had was a half can of some Mexican lager one of the neighbours handed in by way of an apology, and before that it was two pints of draught with a meal just after Christmas.
    How are you getting along?

    As I have said on here many a time, lifelong tee-totaller....
    Good to see I'm not the only one!
    I suspect you may have some higher spiritual basis for your position; I'm just faddy!!
    Not really, I'm not religious :)
  • Mr. Anorak, depressing to hear.

    I had my horoscope properly done once [the lady knew I was a sceptic]. It didn't convert me, which I think disappointed her.

    When it comes to broad-brush personality types, I'd rather stick to Keirsey/Myers-Briggs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    isam said:

    This is interesting, and also relevant to betting on politics in terms of the emotional reaction to unwanted polling evidence. Check your biases!

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/oliver-burkeman-column/2015/feb/24/nobody-immune-science-they-do-not-like-even-liberals

    So true! Everyone's a lawyer making the case for their instinctive prejudices

    Great article, although I am worried that i am only saying that because it backs up what I believe!!
    Be greedy when others are fearful :)

  • antifrank said:

    Our host found some approval for this morning's thread:

    Will Scobie ‏@willscobie · 7m7 minutes ago
    Excellent @MSmithsonPB piece about #SouthThanet. UKIP is disappearing on the doorstep. We are feeling confident. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/24/betting-that-farage-wont-do-it-in-thanet-south-is-starting-to-look-like-a-good-proposition/

    The only problem is that if UKIP fade in S Thanet, Labour will not necessarily be the beneficiaries.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Bravo Smarmeron for making a rare foray into sanity against the hordes of entitled scroungers that populate these boards.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Our host found some approval for this morning's thread:

    Will Scobie ‏@willscobie · 7m7 minutes ago
    Excellent @MSmithsonPB piece about #SouthThanet. UKIP is disappearing on the doorstep. We are feeling confident. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/24/betting-that-farage-wont-do-it-in-thanet-south-is-starting-to-look-like-a-good-proposition/

    Neutral source?
    If Labour are winning Thanet they will get a huge majority even with Scotland. Better to back lab Maj at 17s over T south at 11s

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Labour being in contention in South Thanet would be very odd, given their travails in Essex and Kent in recent years.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    The problem with pay day loans is that with a lot of firms you can roll over the principal amount 12 times and only pay the interest due on a monthly basis.

    I've seen people take out a payday loan of £150 for a month and roll it forward 11 times so they've paid back over a grand to repay it. So the APR can be useful on payday loans because it can take a year to repay it.

    We've let some of the poorest and most vulnerable people in society exploited because of their situation.

    Usury was a crime and the coalition should be delighted they've made the life of payday lenders harder.

    Also things like key meters for gas and electricity are more expensive, and it is mostly the poor that have to use them.

    I don't understand why that is so and why more is not made of it.
    Its more expensive because it is exactly here where companies have managed to pare down costs. Direct Debits are amazing. You can set them up automatically. The customer visits a website, opens an account, enrols in a direct debit. Every month/quarter an amount comes out without the need for further interaction by the company or the user.

    As long as the backend is sufficiently capable, the entire service can be deployed without human interaction, the only human time involved is the service user inputting their information. No red bills, black bills, letters from pretend debt collectors, chasing through courts, long prolonged customer service interaction, with utterly minimal transaction costs.

    Easy peasy. People who use pre payment meters however, totally different kettle of fish. You need to maintain a national payment infrastructure, with significantly higher transaction costs.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Smarmeron said:

    @Sean_F
    The people funding QE are us, or did you think Ozzie was getting the cash from a magic financial money tree?
    Who gets the profits, and whose jobs are ultimately at risk from over inflated assets?
    Why does capitalism need subsidised workers to take the place of true investment?
    the whole system is an insane shambles run for the benefit of the few who are also the ones who fund our lawmakers.

    QE and fractional reserve banking are both magic money trees. There was nothing there before. At the press of a button, the money appears in somebody's account and is now available to buy things. Search online 'Positive Money'.
    Or, better still, look up 'money as debt'. That money appears as a debt that the somebody owes the bank. Since the bank ALWAYS wants more money back than it lends, the only way for that extra money to be found is if the (or another) bank issues ANOTHER debt - to create it. A Ponzi scheme. Eventually the banks run out of good people to loan the money to and lend it to people who can't pay the debt. When this happens then the banks face a large loss.

    Sound familiar?

  • I suspect you may have some higher spiritual basis for your position; I'm just faddy!!

    Me too - I'm a nightmare to cater for in terms of drinks. I don't drink alcohol, coffee or tea - simply because I don't like any of them.

  • Mr. Whaley, surely orange juice/coke is often available?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:

    Our host found some approval for this morning's thread:

    Will Scobie ‏@willscobie · 7m7 minutes ago
    Excellent @MSmithsonPB piece about #SouthThanet. UKIP is disappearing on the doorstep. We are feeling confident. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/24/betting-that-farage-wont-do-it-in-thanet-south-is-starting-to-look-like-a-good-proposition/

    One thing I have noticed abour certain Labour PPC's Twitter feeds is they are very light on Labour policies and packed full of attacks of UKIP and to a lesser extent the Tories. I would have thought putting forward a positive case for the party would be far more beneficial than banging on about NHS privatisation and perceived bigotry.

    My single largest constituency bet is Thanet South and it is not Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937


    I suspect you may have some higher spiritual basis for your position; I'm just faddy!!

    Me too - I'm a nightmare to cater for in terms of drinks. I don't drink alcohol, coffee or tea - simply because I don't like any of them.

    Exactly the same - I have a really exceptional olfactory sense, and I can't get past the smell of any of them.

    Genetic. My father couldn't be in the same room as a piece of cheese!

  • I suspect you may have some higher spiritual basis for your position; I'm just faddy!!

    Me too - I'm a nightmare to cater for in terms of drinks. I don't drink alcohol, coffee or tea - simply because I don't like any of them.

    Exactly the same - I have a really exceptional olfactory sense, and I can't get past the smell of any of them.

    Genetic. My father couldn't be in the same room as a piece of cheese!
    "Not even Wensleydale???" - Wallace
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Mr. Whaley, surely orange juice/coke is often available?

    Indeed I have it with my Rum/Bacardi
  • rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Grandiose said:

    Smarmeron said:

    If capitalism is such a great system, why do we have to bail out the banks and stock markets?

    We haven't bailed out a stock market.

    If banks had been state owned, we would directly have lost billions of pounds. We will recoup much of our stake in the ba ks upon sale.
    We bailed out the people to whom the banks owed money, i.e. their depositors.

    The shareholders lost 100% of their money in the cases of Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley, 95% of their money in the case of RBS, and 90% in the case of Lloyds TSB. (And Lloyds only needed a bail out because the government strong armed them into buying HBOS.) In the case of Lloyds, the tax payer is already in profit, and it is likely a profit will be made in RBS too.
    I struggle to see how the taxpayer will make a profit from RBS. It is still a business in turmoil.
    The tax payer paid £5/share for RBS. The current price is £4. The company makes c. 33p profit per year, so just "adding the profit" gets us to £5 in three years.

    Hmm,

    Assuming zero or negative price-inflation; no capital-costs; and a lack of better choices (opportunity-costs): Have you read about 'Net-Discounted-Present-Value'...?

    :rho-rho-your-boat-as-goldmann-suchs-decree:
  • Smarmeron said:

    @Sean_F
    The people funding QE are us, or did you think Ozzie was getting the cash from a magic financial money tree?
    Who gets the profits, and whose jobs are ultimately at risk from over inflated assets?
    Why does capitalism need subsidised workers to take the place of true investment?
    the whole system is an insane shambles run for the benefit of the few who are also the ones who fund our lawmakers.

    :trollface:

    Another clown who chooses to forget Gormless and Badger. I blame that whiskey-sodden retired teacher, who used to post here until he [MODERATED]-off on his own volition, and his ilk for the false dictum that is Scots' edification....
This discussion has been closed.