politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As relations get even more strained with Mr. Putin Marf on
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As relations get even more strained with Mr. Putin Marf on Cameron’s cool response
The next PB gathering in London has been arranged for 7pm on March 17th at The Shooting Star 125-129 Middlesex Street London E1 7JF. This is just round the corner from Dirty Dicks. Hopefully the new venue will be more comfortable.
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EDIT: like the Tories in Solihull....
Brer Rabbit and Brer Bear are out in the woods. "Brer Rabbit" asks Brer Bear "does shit stick to your fur?"
"No, not at all!" says a smug Brer Rabbit
At which point, Brer Bear picks up Brer Rabbit and proceeds to use him to wipe his.....
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/john-gosden-pm-cameron-heaps-praise-on-racing-industry/1825177/
Regrettably I'm on holiday for this next meet but if anyone's thinking of organising a Midlands one prior to the election that would be fantastic.
I note that his friend, former jockey and racehorse trainer Charlie Brookes, did not make an appearance however. Some friends, no matter how successful, are best left out of the picture. ;-)
Labour
LDs for Palmer
Tories for Palmer
Broxtowe works for me, too :-)
Nick, I suppose I could wear a FBU "We rescue people not banks" t-shirt, and just generally harangue everyone
We're constantly being told that the EU has kept the peace in Europe since WW2 etc. It seems to have - to put it at its mildest - not helped matters in the Ukraine. If an actual member is invaded, we're in completely new territory. We can't even count on the US helping out. And the jihadist threat is likely to get worse.
Wasn't there supposed to be some EU person dealing with foreign affairs to avoid precisely this sort of mess? Ah yes, Cathy Ashton and now some other person no-one's heard of. Well that's all very comforting.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4359611.ece
"I've met a lot of blokes in the pub recently who voted labour last time round, but are just waking up to the fact that ed, is, actually, too crap to vote for. They tell me they are still saying "labour" to the pollsters, but increasingly realise that they just won't be voting that way."
was a joke - a satire on the pbtory anecdote.
Nothing gets past our Dave.
https://sites.google.com/site/hnjstabbo/
Sounds promising.
The EU (or ECSC/EEC/EC) did a great service in reintegrating W Germany into the democratic fold and its role there shouldn't be underestimated but it's a mistake to confuse the parallel processes that kept the peace in Europe during the Cold War of economic and political integration in the west and military preparedness against the east. There were not either/or options but complementary processes. However, they were of a time gone and we should no more look at the current situation through that lens as through the imperial lenses of the 19th century. History is relevant but each era has its unique aspects and policy has to be formed in the light of them.
Unfortunately, our leaders don't yet want to confront the multiple threats that continue to grow and to the extent that they recognise that they exist, they haven't yet developed the policies that follow from the strategies that must be developed to counter those threats. What is needed is a grand overarching geostrategic vision that is not reliant on the goodwill of those who do not offer it but is open to them should they do so. However, that has significant spending commitments and will not go down well with the public unless they buy into the vision: difficult in these cynical times.
Peter No, he is a Blairite
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/libdems-need-to-win-45-seats-for-clegg-to-stay-on-as-leader-10011033.html
That'd be bizarre.
More likely to want to rebuild in opposition, with both the big two fighting internally.
I see that Dair is our latest member of 'The troupe of Jockanese clowns'. I had better use small words so that he understands.
The US Navy have no plans to replace Trident before a replcement i s ready with an ISD of circa 2040. Ergo: Trident II is not yet on the design board (as far as we know).
Vanguard-class boats will need to be converted to 'Core-III' replacements for their own "'Ealth-n-safety" or replaced in total: Whatever the solution - refit or new build - Barrow will need a 'drum-beat' of news subs (c.f. Type 26 and Scotstoun) to maintain vital [English] sovereign skills and capabilities.
So the little fish wife of Edinborough (Holyrood Parish council) can STFU....
The New Statesman notes that:
"Some in Labour, including shadow cabinet members, will not contemplate any agreement with the “yellow bastards”. For them, the Tories are enemies but the Lib Dems are something worse: traitors. Among those who subscribe to this view is Len McCluskey, the general secretary of Unite, Labour’s largest donor. He has publicly warned of a cut in funding and even of disaffiliation should Labour form a coalition with Clegg’s party."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/labour-and-lib-dems-have-much-common-will-tribalism-prevent-coalition
If the Lib Dems are going to insist on coalition or nothing and Labour are going to insist on no coalition, that makes the maths of the next Parliament still more complicated.
Of course, a coalition on 8-9% of the vote with 25 seats will look very different to one on 23% of the vote with 57 seats. I don't think they could ask for the DPM slot on that basis.
They'll get one government department, and a handful of junior ministers elsewhere. I suspect they'd want one of Education, Justice or Welfare and a chance to steer further written-in-blood constitutional reform.. Somehow.
I've always said the LDs couldn't simply switch from Coalition with the Conservatives to Coalition with Labour - IF the election does not indicate a vote of confidence in the Coalition (and I agree 45 is about the number required) then the LDs will go into Opposition though that doesn't imply oppsing all Government measures either.
What it does mean is that neither Cameron nor MIliband can either a) count on LD support or b) assume the other side can count on it. It does, I think, make the SNP pivotal with all that entails.
Labour would be able to run a minority on the other hand without Lib Dems confidence.
So in the Lib Dems mind it is realistically either a coalition with the Conservatives or issue by issue deals with Labour.
The arithmetic is becoming simple - how close will Labour plus SNP be to the Conservatives plus (perhaps) DUP ?
There wouldn't be "an issue by issue deal" as you put it either. Labour plus SNP would support Government legislation - the Tories (and others) would oppose it. As to whether it would be a measure the LDs could support, that would depend on the issue. A sensible Government would seek measures that if not supported by the LDs wouldn't be opposed.
"...our life with communism taught us something. Since then, I have always tried to oppose lies and manipulative propaganda, which I see in this case just now. ‘
Moreover, in April in our commentary on the situation in Ukraine we stated that Ukraine was a heterogeneous, divided country, and that an attempt to forcefully and artificially change its geopolitical orientation would inevitably result in its break-up, if not its destruction. We considered the country too fragile and with too weak an internal coherence to try to make a sudden change. I am sorry to say that it developed according to our expectations. I am afraid that Ukraine was sort of misused. The West suddenly and unexpectedly offered Ukraine early EU affiliation.
"I am afraid that the West, especially western Europe, has accepted a very simplified interpretation of events in Ukraine. According to the West, the Ukraine crisis has been caused by external Russian aggression. The internal causes of the crisis have been ignored, and so are the evident ethnic, ideological and other divisions in Ukraine.
The developments that have taken place since the spring of this year have proved that this approach cannot lead to a solution of the problem. It only deepens the division of the country, increases the tragic costs of its crisis and further destabilises the country. So I do not see that the politicians in Ukraine are looking for a political solution. They do not have any compromise proposals that they could offer to the people of eastern Ukraine to win their confidence. They rely on fighting, on repression and on unrealistic expectations of western economic and military aid.’
He then adds: ‘ I cannot see inside the heads of leading Russian politicians but I do not believe that Russia wanted or needed this to happen. My understanding is that Russia was dragged into it. Dragging Russia into the conflict is a way of making Ukraine a permanent hotspot of global tensions and creating permanent instability in a country that deserves, after decades of suffering under communism, a quiet and positive evolution.’....
I am afraid that just reading the misleading headlines in the media and watching CNN or BBC news is giving such a distorted picture of the situation.
Vaclav Klaus, former President of the Czech republic, to House of Lords EU sub-committee on Russia
Published by Peter Hitchens in his blog today, 20th February.
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
Obviously I'm going to be pretty busy, but after 845pm or so it's too late to pester people, so could join in then, together with anyone who'd joined in my efforts. I can provide local contacts for all parties (including the anti-feminist Men and Boys Party for the eccentrically-minded). The local FBU has just donated £400 to my campaign, without being asked - they're not affiliated to the party, but I was helpful in getting them a hearing when I was an MP and they were locking horns with the Government, and to my surprise they remembered. If you want to try a couple of hours on the doorstep with me you'll be very welcome...
Whereas Labour will have a lot more options in a hung parliament than just the Lib Dems (well, more options in terms of parliamentary arithmetic -- whether those other options would be accepted by public opinion is another matter).
Count 320
Cons (Avg) 284.67
Lab (Avg) 280.41
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.36
Green (Avg) 1.01
SNP (Avg) 33.08
As the other canvassers turned up, the kids looked at us. "What yer doing anyway?" We explained we were campaigning for Labour in the election.
"Uh. What's an election?"
Sigh.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/media/11425580/Guardian-changed-Iraq-article-to-avoid-offending-Apple.html
It's probably something of nothing, but it's nice to know the Telegraph keep this sort of thing up their sleeve to bring out when the self-righteous Guardian steps out of line.
I don't think a Labour/SNP alliance is a done deal, by any means. The two parties are like SPD/Die Linke in Germany.
Patrick Lowe was banned from the Moulsecoomb Local Action Team and escorted out of the building by two Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) on the instruction of the Chairwoman, Labour Councillor Anne Meadows, The Argus reports.
Most of us on the Left have traditonally regarded the police as agents of the Right! Especially during the Thatcher years.
We'll publish a batch of large sample seat polls next week. Join our PR list here: http://eepurl.com/mOK8P for info. Have a great weekend!
Not tonight then..
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/the-daily-telegraphs-promise-to-its-readers-sponsored-by-canesten-2015022095559
Greece folds but only gets two thirds of the 6 month bailout extension it asked for
I think that November is the earliest realistic date for a second election and even that's unlikely; early 2016 is a more likely date, once parliament has had chance to get a decent session under its belt and take stock of the new government. After all, hung parliaments with minority governments are in the interests of minor parties whose votes then really matter every division.
On the Lib Dems, the majority are 30 +/- 5 seats, SNP are around 33 +/- 8 seats, UKIP is more or less 4-6 seats for almost all of us, and the Con/Lab totals seem to hinge on around 15 Con/Lab marginal seats.
So we're really arguing about just 30 seats. And 15 Con/Lab super-marginals in particular.