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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two useful guides from Professor John Curtice on linking vote shares to seats
The big thing with the Tories is the LD battleground. The weaker the yellows are then the more seats on a national swing basis that the blues should pick up. This is a bit at odds with the Ashcroft marginals polling which has been showing that the LDs have been doing a fair bit better in the constituencies they hold compared with the country as a whole.
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They have ed where they want him. Perhaps his comments and this story are best ignored.
Mike Smithson said: "'He's a dodgy Prime Minister surrounded by dodgy donors.' Great line from Ed which will be the one picked up by the bulletins."
But not in a good way.
This is because the weakness of the LDs elsewhere translates disproportionately into useless Labour votes. So for the same Con-Lab national (or even England-only) swing, Lab gain fewer marginals. (The fact that the LDs lose approximately the same number of seats to both Lab & Con helps keep the maths more tidy).
If Ed (or any other party leader) defamed a member of the public - All be it a rich one - And found himself being sued, I'd have thought the public would have their doubts his judgement...
Actually if you read even the right wing newspapers, this is playing quite well for ed.
Those of us who remember 1997 know how toxic sleaze is for the tories.
Unfortunately after 13 years of an even sleazier Labour government "sleaze" now hit's all parties as badly as each other....
Now a man who claims to have paid his tax is classed as sleaze?
If you ask Jo / Joe Public about money in Politics and sleaze around that money I think most will still have the default setting of Blair / Mandleson
"Also, if you classify Man Group as a hedge fund you are beyond clueless."
Reuters
Jan 23, 2015 - Man Group is the world's biggest listed hedge fund firm with $72.3 billion
"He is trying to sell himself as the politician that takes on the vested interests, tax avoiders and big business moguls, so it would be perfect".
Spot on. This rather tawdry campaign probably accidental is working out better than anyone could imagine. Who would have guessed that these muti millionaire tax exiles would have such thin skin. This is something which is actually being talked about in cafe's and bars. No one seems to have realized that these people actually exist let alone that they're mostly under David Cameron's wing. I'm really beginning to wonder how far this thing can go. Could it actually win it for Ed?
Naked political advantage - Btw Daily Mail's take on today is dreadful for Dave
"Miliband was 'personally horrid to me', Cameron complains after being branded 'rotten' in volley of abuse during PMQs"
Getting bullied by Ed Miliband - sweet Jesus.
This isn't rational, its emotional.
Many people in Britain feel, rightly or wrongly, that whilst they suffer austerity, the rich continue to live the high life, and don;t pay their fair share.
The tories have got to be careful here.
Obviously the matter was well in hand before this story broke around their heads.
Heart of stone etc,?
I fink part of the problem for Ed is the same as that which tripped up Ken over Boris.
Ed saw "Tory" and "Swiss Account" together and leapt to the obvious (to him) conclusion that the Tory must be being dodgy. He just couldn't conceive that there might be an innocent explanation.
A leader acting primarily in party interest is not suited to leading the country, which no matter who wins is a mixture of different people deserving respect.
Think about the Roger Bird sex scandal story, when it all came out, it was revealed it was lies told by a women who appears to be a total fantasist....but I bet that mud still stuck.
The perception is Tories = Bankers, which is not a good one for them.
Look at the BBC Headline..Miliband slams 'dodgy' PM in tax row...job done.
Many, many people in Britain feel that way, I reckon.
Apparently there is something wrong with this....
He could, but not yet imo.
The story that's going to be bad news for Ed and is in the works is the tube strike in London. People are going to pay about as much attention to the fact the TUSC is running against Labour as to the technicalities of the Conservative party's donors tax affairs.
@IsabelHardman: Labour source says Miliband will repeat allegations against Lord Fink in public as soon as he has the opportunity http://t.co/iTxYZTl8Rv
He could do it right now if he wanted too.
Ed Miliband really is a very unpleasant politician.
It depends how you look at it. There are some who might say he is at last doing what politicians ought to have been doing for years and rooting out tax avoiders. Like a few of his attacks on vested interests he seems to be finally smoking these people out. They can no longer hide under the wings of their patrons because the public are now on to them.
I have very little sympathy for the Tories. It'll never make sense to anyone why someone with £180,000,000 can avoid tax when a disabled person is taxed for having a spare room.
If he is going to do it publicly, then I assume several broadcasters will be offering him a spot on one of their programmes?
Door step or living room, obvious choice?
I am very cautious on how many seats the SNP will win.
You never know with you champagne socialists living it up on the Cote D'Azure...
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/02/05/cathy-newman-mosque_n_6620026.html
Those with the deepest pockets are the most righteous?
The moral blindness of Labour supporters in this respect is astonishing, but presumably is a kind of rationalisation of the problem they have they don't actually have any coherent arguments against the Conservatives.
The dangers for Fink here are (i) if Miliband makes a weasly statement that creates a stench but which doesn't give him anything to pursue; or (ii) if his earlier rebuttal is not the whole story. No reason to think that (ii) is the case.
Politically I suspect Miliband won't mind this story running, because it is designed to appeal to people on the left, most of whom will side with Miliband on this irrespective of the facts. It's clear now that Miliband has no interest in appealing beyond his base and his strategy is to try to motivate them by fair means or foul. Hopefully it backfires and reignites the Green's faltering campaign, as at least they offer something genuinely different.
'Why should I vote for Labour?' '
'Because the Tories are evil baby eaters'.
'But what are your policies?'
'The Tories are evil baby eaters'.
Perhaps we were blinded by the smears against the unemployed, disabled, and powerless?
Of course, they have never counted to you, only those who are "important" need defending.
I'll agree we have a problem with excessive wealth at one end of our scale and poverty at the other.
I would be happy if the guy who earns 10,000,000 in a year pays between 4 and 5 million tax on his income. That would be the best solution as I see things. Getting to that point is the hard bit, because when you earn 10,000,000 you are very mobile.
Your second sentence is revealingly offensive, BTW.
It is extremely difficult to prove "impropriety" when the accused can just have a quiet agreement, and be granted immunity.
Which is sort of the point really?
PMQs - this time it's personal.
Don't you just love the smell of bluster in the evening?
;-)
'when a disabled person is taxed for having a spare room.'
Can't recall you whining when the so called tax was introduced for the private rental sector by Labour.
https://cyberboris.wordpress.com/2013/08/15/how-ed-and-david-miliband-exploited-a-tax-loophole-described-by-gordon-brown-as-tax-abuse/
If there is one commodity of which there can never be enough for a public always ravenous for linguistic originality, it is the suffix “-gate”. My dream is that one day Bill Gates will marry the Star Trek actress Gates McFadden – and that while honeymooning in Berlin, and fretting about being broke as we all do, she is arrested by Interpol after trying to flog the Brandenburg Gate to a credulous Chinese tourist. If anything could sate this appetite, it is Gates Gates’s Gate-gate.
I don't see anyone on here defending tax avoiders. There are a great many defending the principle of innocence until guilt is proven and decrying the use of parliamentary privilege for partisan advantage. There are many with an appreciation of the lamentable history of Britain's efforts to tackle money laundering and tax avoidance, and the great strides made under this Government to address this. Difficult, unglamorous work. There are a number horrified by the prospect that a man who would be prime minister can make accusations about people without doing his research, and who thinks it is the actions of a statesman to try to stoke up class war on people, some of whom have dedicated themselves to public service, given generously to charity and paid significant sums to the exchequer. And there are others, I suspect, who are deeply concerned about the loss to the nation if the cadre of people who run some of the world's largest companies are deterred from serving Government in any capacity for fear of being smeared with allegations over matters they themselves could well have had no personal knowledge of, all for cheap political advantage.
Love how noticing this in Milibands case is "man love"... If you're not a Cameroon you're a rabid left winger/right winger...
or maybe someone with their own opinion?
Most important news - "Smoking Ban in Cars".
"Fifty Shades of Grey better than the book" also out-performing Ed.
Number 1: Smoking Ban
Number 3: Harriet Harman and PinkBus
Number 10: Miliband 'rotten'
So the "Vow" had no impact and the debates had no impact.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-vow-had-no-impact-on-vote-1-3686914
How many hospitals will close due to the tax shortfalls?