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If the Tories keep the keys to Downing Street, one scenario being considered would see negotiations with EU governments continue this summer to get a new deal for Britain in Brussels.

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Gadfly

First!

Gadfly

YouGov averaged polls for the last 12 months...

edmundintokyo

On topic, it's all bullshit. If the French or German elections could derail the thing in 2017
, so could elections in any of the other member states in any other year. This is one of the reasons why EU treaties take at least ten years, rather than one getting passed every few months whenever a president or prime minister has a domestic political problem.

AlastairMeeks

Talking about the EU is a guaranteed vote loser for the Conservatives. It reminds the headbangers that they don't trust them and it reminds everyone else that the Conservatives obsess about this stuff.

ezekielziggy

It's crazy that the conservative leadership keeps banging on about Europe, it isn't winning them votes. All it is doing is legitimising UKIP and making UKIP-lite gestures won't win them over.

ezekielziggy

I can't imagine stating the vote will be held in 16' as opposed to 17' will make any difference to those voting UKIP. They want to leave Europe and they want to leave europe now. Frankly they don't trust Cameron to deliver on a referendum at some distant point in the future.

JackW

"Will this win back the Con to UKIP switchers Dave needs to remain in Downing Street?" says TSE of the Sunday Times front page.

Well I think Dumbledore giving up the stage to help the Tories in the general election is a wizard wheeze combined of course with this appeal to the Kippers in the new film series :

1. Nigel Farage and the EU Philosopher Get Stoned
2. Nigel Farage and the Chamber Pot of Secret Policies
3. Nigel Farage and the Gay Prisoner of Thanet South
4. Nigel Farage and the Fifty Goblets of Wine
5. Nigel Farage and the Bar Order of the Phoenix Pub
6. Nigel Farage and the Half-Blood Asylum Seeker
7. Nigel Farage and the Deathly Gallows of Electoral Doom

CarlottaVance

I think this rather presumes that UKIP voters are that bothered about an EU referendum -- it's on the list, but not convinced it's that high up.....

Meanwhile, another meme bites the dust "Labour are helped by business attacking them"

Not according to YOUGOV:

Net "helped"
OA (Lab VI) -45 (-35)

CarlottaVance

Interesting question in YouGov - a question on "being good for business in Britain" on forming a government after the GE includes the leader's name as well as the party (David Cameron and the Conservatives) - I thought the rule of thumb was to ask questions as simply as possible? The people who don't know that Cameron leads the Conservatives/Miliband Labour must be vanishingly small.....

Maimonides

What will finish off Labour is the vicious assault the MSM are about to launch. We saw a glimpse last week when The Sun turned on Miliband. There is going to be an attack the like of which we haven't seen for a long time.

Lest Labourites throw up their hands in horror and complain, remember that Miliband has brought all this on himself. Desperate for support he has done the one thing many who are boxed into a corner would do: beat the drum that his core supporters like. By launching a string of left-wing declarations he has cheered them up no end.

He has also signalled his own defeat.

Maimonides

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

OldKingCole

Surely a 2016 referendum would have to be IN/OUT on present terms. No chance of getting any significant changes in any treaty by then; maybe some tinkering with welfare benefits but that’s about it.

To be honest, that’s probably not a bad thing. Either way the issue would be put to bed for a few years, even though in the event of an OUT vote,business and commerce would asking for us to be let back in quite soon.

Gadfly

CarlottaVance said:

Meanwhile, another meme bites the dust "Labour are helped by business attacking them"

I question whether a loyal employee of Boots could take Miliband's attack on Stefano Pessina personally.

I also wonder whether the generalised attack on business is too simplistic. The likes of Boots will directly, and indirectly, provide employment for vast numbers of people, whose wages and tax contributions will help feed the economy. In addition to providing this employment, and trading with countless suppliers, the companies themselves will be paying the likes of VAT and business rates, and their shareholders will be taxed on their dividends. The fact that the man at the top pays his taxes in Monaco is probably small beer in the grand scheme of things.

CarlottaVance

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

Labour voters are evenly split on a coalition with the SNP - 37 pro, 38 anti.

TGOHF

Have the Kippers decided the reasons why Cameron's 2016 referendum is dastardly but Farage's 2015 referendum is worthy of a Nobel prize ?

asjohnstone

OldKingCole said:

Surely a 2016 referendum would have to be IN/OUT on present terms. No chance of getting any significant changes in any treaty by then; maybe some tinkering with welfare benefits but that’s about it.

To be honest, that’s probably not a bad thing. Either way the issue would be put to bed for a few years, even though in the event of an OUT vote,business and commerce would asking for us to be let back in quite soon.

The referendum must be on current terms, there is no prospect that a meaningful change to the present structure can be put in place by 2016 or 17. Anything substantial would require a treaty and that's simply not realistic.

So, we'll get some flim flam window dressing, which will be supported by 2/3rds of the tory party, labour, lib dems and SNP.

asjohnstone

Maimonides said:

What will finish off Labour is the vicious assault the MSM are about to launch. We saw a glimpse last week when The Sun turned on Miliband. There is going to be an attack the like of which we haven't seen for a long time.

It's not the 1990s, the power of the press is a pale shadow of what it was.

The days when the Sun could tip an election are long in the past. Newspaper sales have fallen 50% in the last decade, it's a dying medium which the public no longer trusts.

Paul_Mid_Beds

Look. I and I suspect most UKIP voters wouldn't believe call me Dave if he ran round a crowded room shouting FIRE. Even if I could smell smoke.

Maimonides

asjohnstone said:

Maimonides said:

What will finish off Labour is the vicious assault the MSM are about to launch. We saw a glimpse last week when The Sun turned on Miliband. There is going to be an attack the like of which we haven't seen for a long time.

It's not the 1990s, the power of the press is a pale shadow of what it was.

The days when the Sun could tip an election are long in the past. Newspaper sales have fallen 50% in the last decade, it's a dying medium which the public no longer trusts.

We'll see about that.

p.s. You are referring to printed newspapers. They have declined but you have exaggerated http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_circulation#Circulations_2000-2009

Nevertheless, I referred to the whole mainstream media (MSM) not just printed newspapers.

blackburn63

TGOHF said:

Have the Kippers decided the reasons why Cameron's 2016 referendum is dastardly but Farage's 2015 referendum is worthy of a Nobel prize ?

Kippers don't believe Cameron will hold a referendum, the date is irrelevant

CarlottaVance

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Look. I and I suspect most UKIP voters wouldn't believe call me Dave if he ran round a crowded room shouting FIRE. Even if I could smell smoke.

Who would you believe?

CD13

Harry,

"Have the Kippers decided the reasons why Cameron's 2016 referendum is dastardly but Farage's 2015 referendum is worthy of a Nobel prize ?"

Cameron could have arranged for a 2015 referendum had he been so minded. Serious negotiations could have begun over a year ago and come to fruition by now. The question you should be asking is why didn't Cameron do that. A question we all know the answer to.

I'm happy to be convinced about staying in but I only see politicking.

TGOHF

CarlottaVance said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Look. I and I suspect most UKIP voters wouldn't believe call me Dave if he ran round a crowded room shouting FIRE. Even if I could smell smoke.

Who would you believe?

Just Saint Nigel I think.

The Nats didn't believe he would hold a Sindy referendum. Now they just don't believe the result.

Maimonides

CarlottaVance said:

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

Labour voters are evenly split on a coalition with the SNP - 37 pro, 38 anti.

Which is not very good. I meant the rest of the country. The thought of Miliband + Salmond in No. 10, which is a very real prospect, will be enough to send most UKIP away-day trippers firmly back to the Conservatives.

It always happens this way.

Paul_Mid_Beds

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

I think you underestimate the extent to which former tory voters like me WANT to see a very weak Milipede government cause chaos economically, enact utterly barking social legislation and cause a much needed house price crash, destroying both Labour and Tories on the way, and destroying a lot of the ultra wealthys wealth to the benefit of the 99%, and paving the way for UKIP, a proper conservative party to replace the tories with the tory rump merging with UKIP as junior partner.

We are metaphorically sacking your city so it can be purged of decadence and rebuilt.

TGOHF

CD13 said:

Harry,

"Have the Kippers decided the reasons why Cameron's 2016 referendum is dastardly but Farage's 2015 referendum is worthy of a Nobel prize ?"

Cameron could have arranged for a 2015 referendum had he been so minded. Serious negotiations could have begun over a year ago and come to fruition by now. The question you should be asking is why didn't Cameron do that. A question we all know the answer to.

I'm happy to be convinced about staying in but I only see politicking.

Hold a referendum in the same year as a GE ? That would perhaps have been the stupidest political move since Ed took on a bacon sandwich.

TheWatcher

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

I think you underestimate the extent to which former tory voters like me WANT to see a very weak Milipede government cause chaos economically, enact utterly barking social legislation and cause a much needed house price crash, destroying both Labour and Tories on the way, and destroying a lot of the ultra wealthys wealth to the benefit of the 99%, and paving the way for UKIP, a proper conservative party to replace the tories with the tory rump merging with UKIP as junior partner.

We are metaphorically sacking your city so it can be purged of decadence and rebuilt.

A party of Spite and Envy? Classy.

asjohnstone

Maimonides said:

asjohnstone said:

Maimonides said:

What will finish off Labour is the vicious assault the MSM are about to launch. We saw a glimpse last week when The Sun turned on Miliband. There is going to be an attack the like of which we haven't seen for a long time.

It's not the 1990s, the power of the press is a pale shadow of what it was.

The days when the Sun could tip an election are long in the past. Newspaper sales have fallen 50% in the last decade, it's a dying medium which the public no longer trusts.

We'll see about that.

p.s. You are referring to printed newspapers. They have declined but you have exaggerated http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_circulation#Circulations_2000-2009

Nevertheless, I referred to the whole mainstream media (MSM) not just printed newspapers.

Perhaps a slight exaggeration, but in 1992 when it "was the sun wot won it", the top 3 selling papers; Sun, Mirror and Express had a combined circulation of around 8.7m, right now it's 4.6m.

Trust in the media, post hacking scandal is at an all time low.

TGOHF

Yougov tables on the election campaign so far.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/z4haydkqpn/TimesRedBoxResults_150205_GE2015_campaigns_Website.pdf

FluffyThoughts

Nothing sadder than your average asshat tossing-out the usual headbanger meme. It is like a child using a four-letter word for impression and effect....

:tumbleweed:

CD13

Harry,

There's always a good reason not to do something you don't want to do. Negotiate in 2013, vote in 2014 - oh, what about the Euro elections?

I believe that if Cameron is re-elected, he will hold a referendum - it may be in 2017.

It was always a political stunt and he should win it. I remember 1975 when we were virtually all Europhiles and we were told that it would never mean a political union.

Still, you tell the kids anything just to keep them quiet, don't you.

richardDodd

OT..The weather here in Northern Italy is stunning..warm and sunny..the rest of the country appears to be covered in snow.

asjohnstone

Maimonides said:

CarlottaVance said:

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

Labour voters are evenly split on a coalition with the SNP - 37 pro, 38 anti.

Which is not very good. I meant the rest of the country. The thought of Miliband + Salmond in No. 10, which is a very real prospect, will be enough to send most UKIP away-day trippers firmly back to the Conservatives.

It always happens this way.

It doesn't always happen this way for the very simple reason we've never had this situation before.

We've never had a UKIP party at 15% nor the labour party on it's knees in Scotland.

It's utterly uncharted waters. Looking for a precedent in the past isn't going to help you, they simply don't exist.

saddened

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

I think you underestimate the extent to which former tory voters like me WANT to see a very weak Milipede government cause chaos economically, enact utterly barking social legislation and cause a much needed house price crash, destroying both Labour and Tories on the way, and destroying a lot of the ultra wealthys wealth to the benefit of the 99%, and paving the way for UKIP, a proper conservative party to replace the tories with the tory rump merging with UKIP as junior partner.

We are metaphorically sacking your city so it can be purged of decadence and rebuilt.

Barking. Kippers chip on the shoulder mentality condensed in one post.

tlg86

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

I think you underestimate the extent to which former tory voters like me WANT to see a very weak Milipede government cause chaos economically, enact utterly barking social legislation and cause a much needed house price crash, destroying both Labour and Tories on the way, and destroying a lot of the ultra wealthys wealth to the benefit of the 99%, and paving the way for UKIP, a proper conservative party to replace the tories with the tory rump merging with UKIP as junior partner.

We are metaphorically sacking your city so it can be purged of decadence and rebuilt.

I live in the safe Tory seat of Woking so it won't make much difference how I vote, but I agree. The country could do with some proper Labour incompetence. Whatever the outcome of the election we are heading for a very large, public sector led, recession. I do wonder, however, whether Ukip pose more of a threat to Labour in the long run.

AlastairMeeks

For those that missed it yesterday, I've put up a post on how the remaining Lib Dems after the next election might approach the question of deciding who to support in government:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/blessed-are-kingmakers-who-will-lib.html

Scott_P

@Sun_Politics: Who wants to see a Mili mare with this lot at the top table, asks @toadmeister: http://t.co/XUM07Wpnyw http://t.co/mg92V6PsLl

TheWatcher

saddened said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

I think you underestimate the extent to which former tory voters like me WANT to see a very weak Milipede government cause chaos economically, enact utterly barking social legislation and cause a much needed house price crash, destroying both Labour and Tories on the way, and destroying a lot of the ultra wealthys wealth to the benefit of the 99%, and paving the way for UKIP, a proper conservative party to replace the tories with the tory rump merging with UKIP as junior partner.

We are metaphorically sacking your city so it can be purged of decadence and rebuilt.

Barking. Kippers chip on the shoulder mentality condensed in one post.

I wonder how this idea of wealth destruction goes down with rich poshos Carswell, Reckless and Farage. Not to mention the party's squillionaire backer Sykes.

asjohnstone

There is certainly an element of the kipper support who view them as "being all the same" part of liblabcon.

They'll happily embrace the Götterdämmerung of a Miliband administration to get what they want.

it's an election of lies, UKIP would prefer Miliband in power to Cameron, but they can't say it out loud, similarly the SNP is praying for a Tory win.

richardDodd

The problem for Labour is that their meagre policies are seen through the cracked prism of Miliband

JWisemann

Have new poster Maimonides and UK polling reports's Infamous 'Pressman ' ever been seen in the same room?
Loving the press's urine-poor efforts to ape long past glories. Resulting in nothing so far but a minor uptick in labour polling fortunes. At this rate labour are on course to be six points clear again by the election

RochdalePioneers

On business whatever the press may be saying about Labour being anti business attacking Alliance Boots moving themselves to that Zug post office, its nothing compared to what they are saying about the effects of leaving the EU. If the Tories are going to step up their "smoke me a kipper" campaign expect all the businesses literally screwed by leaving the EU to once again remind everyone how bad that would be for them.

Anyway, on yesterday's poll, thats bad news for the Tories. The true finishing line for the Tories is Tory + Libdem + 1 vs Labour. If noone gets a majority then its simply having more votes than the opposite block. If Clegg goes I can't see Farron signing back on as his first action.

CarlottaVance

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Look. I and I suspect most UKIP voters wouldn't believe call me Dave if he ran round a crowded room shouting FIRE. Even if I could smell smoke.

Who would you believe?

Just Saint Nigel I think.

The Nats didn't believe he would hold a Sindy referendum. Now they just don't believe the result.

Yes, the Nats & the Kippers show the same touching allegiance to their (different) one true faiths - but prefer 'truth' to 'facts'......

CarlottaVance

radsatser said:

Contrary to all those obsessed with promoting the concept of UKIP as a single issue party, we have more important things to get on with at the moment than obsessing about the EU.

How would you prioritise them:

1)...
2)....
3).....

Roger

Are we starting to see a whiff of panic from Cameron and co? This hasn't been thought through. The small percentage for whom the EU is the number one issue want out. It's not the referendum that exites them but the result. Cameron will be campaigning to stay in so to raise as an election issue something that divides his party doesn't make any sense.

He's got enough problems with his Monaco based tax avoider chums playing into Labour's hands. I'm beginning to think Ed's in with a chance.

Jonathan

Europe, the issue to save the Tories. Seriously?

Good luck with that.

CarlottaVance

Roger said:

I'm beginning to think Ed's in with a chance.

Oh that's cheered me up no end - thank you Roger! ;-)

Scott_P

Roger said:

I'm beginning to think Ed's in with a chance.

Thanks Roger. That will steady a few nerves on the Tory benches

saddened

CarlottaVance said:

radsatser said:

Contrary to all those obsessed with promoting the concept of UKIP as a single issue party, we have more important things to get on with at the moment than obsessing about the EU.

How would you prioritise them:

1)...
2)....
3).....

I'm guessing

1, immigration.
2, immigration from countries that pray in a certain direction
3, some vague ill defined fear that he's (it's virtually guaranteed to be a he) not quite able to define

logical_song

saddened said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

I think you underestimate the extent to which former tory voters like me WANT to see a very weak Milipede government cause chaos economically, enact utterly barking social legislation and cause a much needed house price crash, destroying both Labour and Tories on the way, and destroying a lot of the ultra wealthys wealth to the benefit of the 99%, and paving the way for UKIP, a proper conservative party to replace the tories with the tory rump merging with UKIP as junior partner.

We are metaphorically sacking your city so it can be purged of decadence and rebuilt.

Barking. Kippers chip on the shoulder mentality condensed in one post.

Well at least Mr Mid-Beds helped detoxify the Tory party by leaving it.
Does he really speak for many in UKIP in wanting economic chaos?

CarlottaVance

Bermuda has said it is "surprised and disappointed" to be included a list of places Ed Miliband says Labour would target in a tax avoidance clampdown.

Mr Miliband wants British territories such as Bermuda to be internationally blacklisted if they do not compile public registers of offshore firms.

But Bermuda's government said it had operated a central registry of companies since the 1940s.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31231113

TCPoliticalBetting

TGOHF said:

Have the Kippers decided the reasons why Cameron's 2016 referendum is dastardly but Farage's 2015 referendum is worthy of a Nobel prize ?

UKIP activists on here probably thought their 2010 manifesto was wonderful, when signed by Farage, until he changed his mind. More a cult than a political party.
(spell checkeroff)

kle4

This seems a very poor idea indeed. For one, it will not sway a UKIPer who wants a referendum right now, or many years ago (I also thought we should have had one years ago, but unlike many of the Kipper variety I am willing to wait), and for two, as others have pointed out, it torpedoes Cameron's entire strategy of winning some concessions.

If Cameron wins he has to hold a referendum, he would be destroyed if he did not, even if he suspects he would lose and the country would suffer he would have to hold one now. And his prospects of victory rely entirely on a, fear, and b, how convincing he can make his argument he has won genuine concessions from the EU, when we all know I think that the bureaucrats and other leaders have been pretty blunt that nothing significant in the areas we want will be permitted. His ability to argue that is severely diminished with an earlier election, even if we accept the point that 2017 is a tough year for several leader (though given even in the EU heartlands there is some rising discontent, so maybe there would be the taste for some pandering to Cameron's 'reforming' stance then.

JWisemann

The trouble with all this labour = anti business / EU game playing is that for every kipper or unsure swing voter they might get on side, they'll be sending two or three red dems and green flirters back to the red camp, labour's lost crutch (or one of them, I reckon the Scottish crutch has been kicked out for good this cycle)

kle4

Before deciding for sure if this is a good idea or not, I need to know what Dan Hodges thinks. Good rule of thumb.

Just kidding Mr Hodges, if you are out there somewhere, I like your writing and sometimes you make some great points.

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

Bermuda has said it is "surprised and disappointed" to be included a list of places Ed Miliband says Labour would target in a tax avoidance clampdown.

Mr Miliband wants British territories such as Bermuda to be internationally blacklisted if they do not compile public registers of offshore firms.

But Bermuda's government said it had operated a central registry of companies since the 1940s.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31231113

It seemed a bit odd for Ed M to go hard at the overseas territories, but if it makes him look tough on naughty rich people I can see the appeal from his pov, and it is not as though bashing them is going to cost any votes in this country anyway, so a no risk move really.

Barnesian

antifrank said:

For those that missed it yesterday, I've put up a post on how the remaining Lib Dems after the next election might approach the question of deciding who to support in government:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/blessed-are-kingmakers-who-will-lib.html

Really excellent piece of evidence based analysis with serious betting consequences. Very well done. Thank you antifrank.

The only thing I can add, as a LibDem defector*, is my own voting strategy. In a LibDem/Tory marginal I would vote LibDem - better a LibDem MP than a Tory MP. In a LibDem/Lab marginal, I would vote Labour to help increase the number of Labour MPs. If my fellow defectors feel the same way, it will introduce a Labour bias that perhaps is not reflected in the polling.

* Although I am a defector in the polls (I reply Labout when asked how I will vote in the next GE) I have rejoined the LibDem Party so that I have a vote in the LibDem Leadership elections after next May.

richardDodd

kle4...It just make him look stupid.

NickPalmer

antifrank said:

For those that missed it yesterday, I've put up a post on how the remaining Lib Dems after the next election might approach the question of deciding who to support in government:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/blessed-are-kingmakers-who-will-lib.html

Interesting analysis, showing again how unlikely Cameron is to continue - without the LibDems or the SNP, he's going to need close to an overall majority. By the way, I don't see Lynne Featherstone on your lists, antifrank?

Maimonides said:

What will finish off Labour is the vicious assault the MSM are about to launch. We saw a glimpse last week when The Sun turned on Miliband. There is going to be an attack the like of which we haven't seen for a long time.

Actually it's been going on for some time, to no noticeable effect, as you'll have observed last week when the MSM had a good go at Miliband. For the core vote - and that's what the 30-odd per cent is - it's evidence that Miliband has annoyed vested interests, which most of us core voters think is, other things being equal, a good thing. (And anyway, being core voters we don't switch because of some newspaper articles)

edmundintokyo said:

On topic, it's all bullshit. If the French or German elections could derail the thing in 2017, so could elections in any of the other member states in any other year. This is one of the reasons why EU treaties take at least ten years, rather than one getting passed every few months whenever a president or prime minister has a domestic political problem.

Yes - it's odd how people preoccupied with Europe don't get how it works. The question that an early referendum begs is: what happens if any subsequent treaty turns out differently from the terms suggested by Cameron? Do we then get another referendum, or what? Who decides what is "different enough"?

JWisemann

Well to be honest it's a bit like the usual right wing approach that has worked so well in the past - don't worry to be much about the detail, just set the tone even if it's not all that coherent while all people take away is the superficial mood music (for the record I think a concerted assault on tax havens between a few rich developed nations is what is needed). Most people won't be listening to pedantry from apologists, they'll just take away the message that someone is socking it to what 95% of the population, right and left alike, see as an unaccountable and exploitative feral global hyper-rich.

CarlottaVance

JWisemann said:

The trouble with all this labour = anti business / EU game playing is that for every kipper or unsure swing voter they might get on side, they'll be sending two or three red dems and green flirters back to the red camp, labour's lost crutch (or one of them, I reckon the Scottish crutch has been kicked out for good this cycle)

Labour voters don't think it helps Labour.......(to be precise, 13% do, 48% don't)

kle4

richardDodd said:

kle4...It just make him look stupid.

A lot of people will like anything that even sounds like it is tough on nasty rich people, it doesn't have to be a good or smart idea or matter who else it pisses off (particularly if they won't affect the vote here).

CarlottaVance

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bermuda has said it is "surprised and disappointed" to be included a list of places Ed Miliband says Labour would target in a tax avoidance clampdown.

Mr Miliband wants British territories such as Bermuda to be internationally blacklisted if they do not compile public registers of offshore firms.

But Bermuda's government said it had operated a central registry of companies since the 1940s.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31231113

It seemed a bit odd for Ed M to go hard at the overseas territories, but if it makes him look tough on naughty rich people I can see the appeal from his pov, and it is not as though bashing them is going to cost any votes in this country anyway, so a no risk move really.

But since the US, France & Germany don't agree with Ed's register, is he going to ask the OECD to blacklist them too?

TGOHF

saddened said:

CarlottaVance said:

radsatser said:

Contrary to all those obsessed with promoting the concept of UKIP as a single issue party, we have more important things to get on with at the moment than obsessing about the EU.

How would you prioritise them:

1)...
2)....
3).....

I'm guessing

1, immigration.
2, immigration from countries that pray in a certain direction
3, some vague ill defined fear that he's (it's virtually guaranteed to be a he) not quite able to define

The EU is no longer the most important issue for the Kippers. That ship has sailed a long time ago.

Peter_the_Punter

blackburn63 said:

TGOHF said:

Have the Kippers decided the reasons why Cameron's 2016 referendum is dastardly but Farage's 2015 referendum is worthy of a Nobel prize ?

Kippers don't believe Cameron will hold a referendum, the date is irrelevant

That's right, and it's why Dave was so anxious to avoid a debate involving Farage.

Farage can easily skewer the PM by quoting the promises he made in the debates five years ago and did not keep. He may be able to do so in the new seven candidate format, if that does take place, but it won't be quite so easy.

Even so, this is a topic Tories would do well to steer clear off, if that is possible.

JWisemann

CarlottaVance said:

JWisemann said:

The trouble with all this labour = anti business / EU game playing is that for every kipper or unsure swing voter they might get on side, they'll be sending two or three red dems and green flirters back to the red camp, labour's lost crutch (or one of them, I reckon the Scottish crutch has been kicked out for good this cycle)

Labour voters don't think it helps Labour.......(to be precise, 13% do, 48% don't)

Would they be the same labour voters (and left leaning swing voters too) who overwhelmingly also say labour should do more to stand up to big business in recent polling?

Alanbrooke

I can't see referendum posturing doing much to boost Cameron's chances. The referendum is way down the list of issues even to kippers. Cameron would have been better just to stick with what he said and not poke the hornets' nest.

Disaffected righties reluctance to vote for Cameron's Conservatives have more to do with Cameron's inability to connect with them on issues such as the economy, immigration and reform than Europe. Unfortunately for Cameron he has left it too late to do anything meaningful to win theses votes back. We are in election time and all promises are suspect.

AlastairMeeks

NickPalmer said:

antifrank said:

For those that missed it yesterday, I've put up a post on how the remaining Lib Dems after the next election might approach the question of deciding who to support in government:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/blessed-are-kingmakers-who-will-lib.html

Interesting analysis, showing again how unlikely Cameron is to continue - without the LibDems or the SNP, he's going to need close to an overall majority. By the way, I don't see Lynne Featherstone on your lists, antifrank?

She's "doomed". In my opinion, she's doomed too.

CarlottaVance

Osborne & the Hon Hunt on Marr.....

MarqueeMark

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

I think you underestimate the extent to which former tory voters like me WANT to see a very weak Milipede government cause chaos economically, enact utterly barking social legislation and cause a much needed house price crash, destroying both Labour and Tories on the way, and destroying a lot of the ultra wealthys wealth to the benefit of the 99%, and paving the way for UKIP, a proper conservative party to replace the tories with the tory rump merging with UKIP as junior partner.

We are metaphorically sacking your city so it can be purged of decadence and rebuilt.

Thank you for confirming that UKIP is the Khmer Rouge of the Right. Back to Year Zero.

Everything that Miliband enacts will be laid at your door.

Everything.

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bermuda has said it is "surprised and disappointed" to be included a list of places Ed Miliband says Labour would target in a tax avoidance clampdown.

Mr Miliband wants British territories such as Bermuda to be internationally blacklisted if they do not compile public registers of offshore firms.

But Bermuda's government said it had operated a central registry of companies since the 1940s.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31231113

It seemed a bit odd for Ed M to go hard at the overseas territories, but if it makes him look tough on naughty rich people I can see the appeal from his pov, and it is not as though bashing them is going to cost any votes in this country anyway, so a no risk move really.

But since the US, France & Germany don't agree with Ed's register, is he going to ask the OECD to blacklist them too?

I have no idea, I suspect nothing will happen. I'm not saying it is a good idea, just that it has a better chance of sounding appealing to people in Britain at first hearing, before anyone needs to think about it, than it does of sounding unappealing, given Labour will paint the first complainers as defending tax havens.

One thing Ed M does seem relatively good at is crafting announcements which sound appealing at first (and for most people only) glance, attempting to reinforce the message about what Labour is about in peoples' minds, even if the idea is shown to be poor afterwards. See also Energy Freeze - that one may just have unravelled a bit too soon to have worked, but it was for a bit).

MikeK

richardDodd said:

OT..The weather here in Northern Italy is stunning..warm and sunny..the rest of the country appears to be covered in snow.

Good morning,
Stop! You're making me jealous, #richardDodd. Warm and sunny is exactly what I need right now, instead, it's cold and overcast. Bbbrrrrrrrrrrr....

So, Cammo is making more EU referendum promises? Doesn't the bugger ever give up trying the same three card trick on the poor suffering electorate?

saddened

radsatser said:

@ CarlottaVance

Are we required to prioritise them.. How quaint, how original!!

Just because the Conservative, Labour and the LibDems prioritise taking £12 billion away from the British taxpayer, vulnerable people, the disabled, the military, infrastructure, flooded areas, disease treatments, border control etc, etc, etc, and throw it about like confetti in Overseas Aid in the direction of countries with nuclear weapons and space programmes.

I'll answer your question.

1. The interests of the British people
2. The interests of the British people
3. The interests of the British people
4. The interests of the British people

....in no particular order.

I was right. You just don't have the courage to say so.
To paraphrase Tony Blair, kipper policy is immigration, immigration, immigration.

FalseFlag

No, UKIP is about the fact English people will shortly be a minority in their own country due to the actions of the media political elite, something the EU is only tangentially connected to.

MarqueeMark

Gorgeous day in south Devon. Crisp with bright blue skies and warming sunshine.

kle4

FalseFlag said:

No, UKIP is about the fact English people will shortly be a minority in their own country due to the actions of the media political elite, something the EU is only tangentially connected to.

I thought UKIP wanted to be a party for all the UK - they do have representatives in all of the constituent nations after all.

Roger

Paul MB

"I think you underestimate the extent to which former tory voters like me WANT to see a very weak Milipede government cause CHAOS economically, enact utterly barking social legislation and cause a much needed house price CRASH, destroying both Labour and Tories on the way, and destroying a lot of the ultra wealth.........................."

It's Dr Strangelove!!

http://i.imgur.com/8hVkbPA.jpg

MikeK

saddened said:

radsatser said:

@ CarlottaVance

Are we required to prioritise them.. How quaint, how original!!

Just because the Conservative, Labour and the LibDems prioritise taking £12 billion away from the British taxpayer, vulnerable people, the disabled, the military, infrastructure, flooded areas, disease treatments, border control etc, etc, etc, and throw it about like confetti in Overseas Aid in the direction of countries with nuclear weapons and space programmes.

I'll answer your question.

1. The interests of the British people
2. The interests of the British people
3. The interests of the British people
4. The interests of the British people

....in no particular order.

I was right. You just don't have the courage to say so.
To paraphrase Tony Blair, kipper policy is immigration, immigration, immigration.

And Lab/Lib/Con policy is the destruction and dismemberment of their own country.
To paraphrase Tony Blair: destruction, destruction, destruction!

Richard_Tyndall

kle4 said:

FalseFlag said:

No, UKIP is about the fact English people will shortly be a minority in their own country due to the actions of the media political elite, something the EU is only tangentially connected to.

I thought UKIP wanted to be a party for all the UK - they do have representatives in all of the constituent nations after all.

Please don't take Falseflag as representative in any way of what UKIP want. Nor even of what anyone in England wants. He has his own agenda and it has nothing to do with UKIP or any other British political party.

CarlottaVance

radsatser said:

@ CarlottaVance

Are we required to prioritise them.. How quaint, how original!!

Just because the Conservative, Labour and the LibDems prioritise taking £12 billion away from the British taxpayer, vulnerable people, the disabled, the military, infrastructure, flooded areas, disease treatments, border control etc, etc, etc, and throw it about like confetti in Overseas Aid in the direction of countries with nuclear weapons and space programmes.

I'll answer your question.

1. The interests of the British people
2. The interests of the British people
3. The interests of the British people
4. The interests of the British people

....in no particular order.

The comment was in response to a poster who said that an EU referendum was well down the list of UKIP priorities, I just wondered what the more important priorities were.....and am none the wiser.....do you want to try again?

FluffyThoughts

radsatser said:

@ CarlottaVance

Are we required to prioritise them.. How quaint, how original!!

Just because the Conservative, Labour and the LibDems prioritise taking £12 billion away from the British taxpayer, vulnerable people, the disabled, the military, infrastructure, flooded areas, disease treatments, border control etc, etc, etc, and throw it about like confetti in Overseas Aid in the direction of countries with nuclear weapons and space programmes.

I'll answer your question.

1. The interests of the British people
2. The interests of the British people
3. The interests of the British people
4. The interests of the British people

....in no particular order.

There is no such concept of "British" - outwith the Army - as we are not an identifiable concept:

Our law is English (save Scotland's knuckle-draggers) and our nations divided. "British" may be a moniker for antagonists who enjoy our benefits but seek to undermine our socitities (c.f. sven) but they should not be a model that any cogent being would wish to emulate.

CarlottaVance

FalseFlag said:

No, UKIP is about the fact English people will shortly be a minority in their own country due to the actions of the media political elite, something the EU is only tangentially connected to.

Define 'shortly'.......

FluffyThoughts

MarqueeMark said:

Gorgeous day in south Devon. Crisp with bright blue skies and warming sunshine.

You forgot to mention your neighbours in "North Wales"....

Scott_P

@ProfTimBale: 'More Lib Dems would vote Tory to keep Labour out (23%) than vice versa (13%)' http://t.co/aRVwhq5gZZ Not so surprising: down to hard-core.

But, but, but, firewall...

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Stupid idea to raise this by the Conservatives.

FalseFlag

http://m.nv.ua/publications/ukraina-ne-hochet-idti-na-realnyy-kompromiss-s-rossiey-amerikanskiy-voennyy-ekspert-33106.html

Why the US lost in the Ukraine. I think he underplays that the current Kiev government is incapable of agreeing the necessary autonomy the East desires, something Breedlove also called unacceptable (not sure what it has to do with NATO). Also the rebels are well aware the Kiev forces wish to emulate Croatia, use a ceasefire to rearm and train with an Operation Storm launched in a few years time. I don't see a ceasefire agreed soon, the UAF are incapable of launching offensives and are barely able to hold a defensive line, all the time the people of Ukraine continue to turn on the Galicians as the rebels gain.

Time for Britain to cease sending arms and escalating the conflict, instead we can put pressure on the loons in Kiev to live in the real world. Saying we support the negotiations but only on terms unacceptable to the rebels are a disgrace, toeing the US line has once again been a disaster for us.

Alanbrooke

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Stupid idea to raise this by the Conservatives.

Quite Mr Dancer, shifting the agenda onto a subject you'll struggle to win anything from is dafter than David Willetts.

saddened

MikeK said:

saddened said:

radsatser said:

@ CarlottaVance

Are we required to prioritise them.. How quaint, how original!!

Just because the Conservative, Labour and the LibDems prioritise taking £12 billion away from the British taxpayer, vulnerable people, the disabled, the military, infrastructure, flooded areas, disease treatments, border control etc, etc, etc, and throw it about like confetti in Overseas Aid in the direction of countries with nuclear weapons and space programmes.

I'll answer your question.

1. The interests of the British people
2. The interests of the British people
3. The interests of the British people
4. The interests of the British people

....in no particular order.

I was right. You just don't have the courage to say so.
To paraphrase Tony Blair, kipper policy is immigration, immigration, immigration.

And Lab/Lib/Con policy is the destruction and dismemberment of their own country.
To paraphrase Tony Blair: destruction, destruction, destruction!

No rebuttal of the only concern being immigration I notice.

MarqueeMark

FluffyThoughts said:

MarqueeMark said:

Gorgeous day in south Devon. Crisp with bright blue skies and warming sunshine.

You forgot to mention your neighbours in "North Wales"....

I don't have quite that big a property!

Charles

CarlottaVance said:

Bermuda has said it is "surprised and disappointed" to be included a list of places Ed Miliband says Labour would target in a tax avoidance clampdown.

Mr Miliband wants British territories such as Bermuda to be internationally blacklisted if they do not compile public registers of offshore firms.

But Bermuda's government said it had operated a central registry of companies since the 1940s.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31231113

He really is into self-harming isn't he.

Reform of the tax havens is a good thing: transparency and sunlight is what we need (and - as Osborne was rather surprised by - penalty rates of tax where sunlight is not wanted: I'm think here of the 15% annual mansion taxes on houses in corporate envelopes).

But the way to do is it is the way the Coalition has approached it: robust negotiation with our international partners to make sure that the Swiss, the Dutch, the Luxembourgers, the Lichensteinians (does anyone know the right term?) etc. all open up their tax havens at the same time and manner. It's not by knee capping our Crown Dependencies to make a political point.

CarlottaVance

Weekly report card - doing well - net (vs 1wk ago) [Scotland]

Cameron: -9 (-2) [-29]
Miliband: -50 (-4) [-62]

Roger

"Gorgeous day in south Devon. Crisp with bright blue skies and warming sunshine."

"The weather here in Northern Italy is stunning..warm and sunny..the rest of the country appears to be covered in snow."

Faroe Islands come in please.....Faroe Isla...

Yorkcity

Peter_the_Punter said:

blackburn63 said:

TGOHF said:

Have the Kippers decided the reasons why Cameron's 2016 referendum is dastardly but Farage's 2015 referendum is worthy of a Nobel prize ?

Kippers don't believe Cameron will hold a referendum, the date is irrelevant

That's right, and it's why Dave was so anxious to avoid a debate involving Farage.

Farage can easily skewer the PM by quoting the promises he made in the debates five years ago and did not keep. He may be able to do so in the new seven candidate format, if that does take place, but it won't be quite so easy.

Even so, this is a topic Tories would do well to steer clear off, if that is possible.

True Peter.

Dave under no conditions will debate with Nigel.
He therefore is not anxious.

However, when Cameron keeps saying he really wants the debates, it just feeds into the
perception of a person, who is very flaky on cast iron guarantees to the British public.

Looking into the camera and saying no top down reorganization would be an easy skewer.

MikeK

logical_song said:

saddened said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Maimonides said:

I should add that it is the assault by the MSM which will be focused on UKIP flaunters. The message will be hammered home that if you go down that route you will get Miliband + Salmond, two nightmares for most English voters.

Expect, therefore, a sharp reduction in the English voting deficit that last night's threader put around 9% from the previous election.

I think you underestimate the extent to which former tory voters like me WANT to see a very weak Milipede government cause chaos economically, enact utterly barking social legislation and cause a much needed house price crash, destroying both Labour and Tories on the way, and destroying a lot of the ultra wealthys wealth to the benefit of the 99%, and paving the way for UKIP, a proper conservative party to replace the tories with the tory rump merging with UKIP as junior partner.

We are metaphorically sacking your city so it can be purged of decadence and rebuilt.

Barking. Kippers chip on the shoulder mentality condensed in one post.

Well at least Mr Mid-Beds helped detoxify the Tory party by leaving it.
Does he really speak for many in UKIP in wanting economic chaos?

No he doesn't, Mr Mid-Beds is talking for himself. It is NOT UKIP policy to cause chaos in Britain, quite the opposite; and those faugh PB attackers on Mr Mid-Beds know it.

However one can understand the rage of Mr Mid-Beds when he woke up from the Tory womb and saw the destruction that the Lab/Lib/Con parties are doing to Britain, and have done over the years.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Look. I and I suspect most UKIP voters wouldn't believe call me Dave if he ran round a crowded room shouting FIRE. Even if I could smell smoke.

Who would you believe?

Just Saint Nigel I think.

The Nats didn't believe he would hold a Sindy referendum. Now they just don't believe the result.

Yes, the Nats & the Kippers show the same touching allegiance to their (different) one true faiths - but prefer 'truth' to 'facts'......

All that from a servile Tory fan boy loser who wants the peasants kept in their place.

Edin_Rokz

Sorry Guys, but looking at the ST front page, I see the headline: "Top Tory ensnared in Tax Probe".

This is not the headline that CCHQ wanted to see, while the secondary smaller case "seems" to be the one the ST felt "obliged" to squeeze in.

I'm not sure which way Rupert wants his media to swing yet, probably, like the rest of us, he can't predict the winner yet to be the Sun/Times/ST/Sky wot won it, but todays front page really doesn't look too good for DC.

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Look. I and I suspect most UKIP voters wouldn't believe call me Dave if he ran round a crowded room shouting FIRE. Even if I could smell smoke.

Who would you believe?

Just Saint Nigel I think.

The Nats didn't believe he would hold a Sindy referendum. Now they just don't believe the result.

Yes, the Nats & the Kippers show the same touching allegiance to their (different) one true faiths - but prefer 'truth' to 'facts'......

All that from a servile Tory fan boy loser who wants the peasants kept in their place.

Turnip

Charles

MikeK said:

saddened said:

radsatser said:

@ CarlottaVance

Are we required to prioritise them.. How quaint, how original!!

Just because the Conservative, Labour and the LibDems prioritise taking £12 billion away from the British taxpayer, vulnerable people, the disabled, the military, infrastructure, flooded areas, disease treatments, border control etc, etc, etc, and throw it about like confetti in Overseas Aid in the direction of countries with nuclear weapons and space programmes.

I'll answer your question.

1. The interests of the British people
2. The interests of the British people
3. The interests of the British people
4. The interests of the British people

....in no particular order.

I was right. You just don't have the courage to say so.
To paraphrase Tony Blair, kipper policy is immigration, immigration, immigration.

And Lab/Lib/Con policy is the destruction and dismemberment of their own country.
To paraphrase Tony Blair: destruction, destruction, destruction!

That's not paraphrasing, btw.

Peter_the_Punter

@Barnesian

Yes, that's a characteristically incisive piece by Antifrank.

The magic figure is 295. Below that, Cameron cannot expect to form any kind of Government. It's a figure I arrived at by a different route to Antifrank, so natural I'm pleased to note PB's TOTY in-waiting has the same in mind.

malcolmg

MarqueeMark said:

Gorgeous day in south Devon. Crisp with bright blue skies and warming sunshine.

Same in sunny west of Scotland