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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why’s the Westminster bubble ignoring the Tory near collapse in England?
To work out swing you look the change in party figures from the last election an divide by 2. So here LAB is up 6.9% with Opinium in England and the Tories down 6.5%. So that makes a swing of 6.7%
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Copyright - @SeanT
JackW Will Never Be Prime Minister.
It's worrying for the Conservatives and very worrying for the LDs. The conundrum for me is the potential impact of the Green vote in LD seats. One example is Ed Davey's seat - K&S might well be the kind of place where the Green candidate draws enough LD votes to get the Conservatives home. We don't know at this stage.
In my seat (East Ham), a Green candidate will make no difference to the result but could (perhaps) draw a small amount off the Labour vote. Again, we don't know.
That's politician speak.
It doesn't matter what it means, as long as it sounds good.
(I offer translations for very moderate fees if you so desire)
;-)
60 hours
In Sean's case a padded cell might be better than a ringfence?
(issajokesean)
I read somewhere that we vote for candidates, not parties, and that instead of looking at UNS you have to look at individual constituency polls conducted last August by well-known but relatively new polling firms we won't be using again.
Colour me confused.
Sadly, I'm not convinced by his party's policies.
PB decided I and not you was TOTY and how right their collective wisdom was.
Go back to frightening old ladies and the children. The rest of us will not be moved.
Tony Blair has moved to end talk of a rift with Ed Miliband as he pledged to offer whatever support the Labour leader wants in the runup to the 7 May election.
With Miliband under intense pressure after a succession of business leaders criticised his policies as bad for the country, the former prime minister made clear that he was ready to aid Miliband’s push to restore Labour to power.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/07/tony-blair-ed-miliband-labour-general-election
Sunil I believe so, and India's space programme. Indeed, while we are shutting libraries and theatres, sacking soldiers and policemen, raising tuition fees, slashing legal aid and welfare, and the NHS and social care are facing ever more pressures, it was gratifying to see DFID civil servants went on a £1 billion spending spree of taxpayers' money to ensure they did not underspend and fail to meet Cameron's target of spending 0.7% of GDP on overseas aid
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11349411/Civil-Servants-spent-extra-1billion-in-eight-weeks-to-hit-aid-target.html
BTW charles, have you had an opportunity to call in at the Finborough Arms as yet?
Been juggling a jetlagged baby, so not yet...
If OGH didn't write threads that challenged the site narrative it would be unbearable! He joined in with the pro tory narrative in Rochester and ended up with oeuf sur his visage like the rest of the unthinkers, so perhaps he's has enough
Con 32, Lab 33, LD 7, UKIP 15, Greens 8
"We fired our guns and the British kept a-coming. There wasn't quite as many as there was a while ago; We fired once more and they began a-running; all down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50_iRIcxsz0
@computor will appreciate from 1:05 onwards...
Tories seen as having best policies towards British business by 33% to Labour's 19% - same split as on economy
(That's it for the weekend, I presume?)
(foreword by TSE)
*sometimes safe for work*
It could be the New Nighthawks slogan?
Which doesn't mean there won't be any more.
Crimestop doubleplusgood crimethink.
43% think a Labour victory would be bad for British business, just 19% think it would be good
Paradoxically, 38% say govt should primarily support big business, 49% it should do more to stand up to it
Quite a few of those think that would be a good thing.
People don't like CEOs in tax havens intervening in UK politics 73% felt Boots boss Pessina's intervention unacceptable
I'm sure not being able to get jobs afterwards will help them learn the error of their ways rather than seeing no point in reforming as they'll still be screwed either way.
After all they used the same trick (although more damagingly) when they shifted the World Service from the FCO to the BBC budget
10 LAB leads
4 CON-LAB level pegging
1 CON lead
If you're applying for a job that requires a CRB or DBS check, it would show up already.
And what is the most popular story on the BBC site?
"Keep daffodils away from food"
*sighs*
"Keep daffodils away from food"
That was a plot line for one of the generic cop/forensic shows....which fortunately I can't remember the name of.
They'd lose a lot of Welsh seats, as well as Scottish, in that scenario.
attitudes hardening on Isis. UK air strikes on Isis backed by 63%, up from 59% in October. A new high
32% would support sending UK group troops back into Iraq, the same as in October
Found the 2010 article I referred to earlier.
[URL]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/voters-tell-brown-and-cameron-stop-lying-to-us-1941434.html[/URL]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/voters-tell-brown-and-cameron-stop-lying-to-us-1941434.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/voters-tell-brown-and-cameron-stop-lying-to-us-1941434.html
50% think it would be a bad thing if SNP were part of coalition after election, only 16% a good thing
Among Labour supporters 37% would support a Labour deal with SNP, 38% would be opposed
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Nick-Palmer/story-25981331-detail/story.html
Did they ask a question about possible Conservative partners?
No italics as on mobile.
Excluding YG (data awaited), but inc. Opinium, this week's lead is 1.5%
However, it’s also right that when a viewpoint is put forward by someone who no longer lives in this country
Stefano has never lived in the UK. He grew up in Rome, moved to Milan for university and then moved to Monaco about 30 years ago when he separated from his wife.
does not pay taxes here
Not really accurate. He pays VAT and all sorts of other taxes. I'd assume (but have never asked) that he has PAYE applied to his Boots salary. But Alliance Sante (the source of his wealth) was always based outside the UK - it was a pan-European company based in Luxembourg that was set up to acquire ASI (his father's company) and the Spanish business that was his first international acquisition)
does not pay taxes here and is therefore not a contributing member of our society, that this is also highlighted
Bullshit. You can be a contributing member of society regardless of whether you pay tax or not. Society is not the same as the State.
Can I suggest you employ a fact-checker?
My GE prediction was Con 305 seats and a Coalition with the LibDems. One seat out.
However in the spirit of fraternal PBing I wish all your puss fill warts a speedy end and more power to your drink fuelled ramblings. It entertains us all
Do NOT confuse your PfPs and PtPs, Sir!
"does not pay taxes here and is therefore not a contributing member of our society"
I didn't realise Nick had written that.
So anyone who doesn't pay taxes here - including millions of benefit claimants - are not a contributing member of our society.
Perhaps Ed/Nick would like to take the vote from them too?
Never realised this is what they thought.
Not properly weighted.
DFID doesn't include the net £10 billion we give to the relatively well-off countries of the EU each year (Europe also has a space programme!).
Ed Milband Will Never Be Prime Minister
But you could make a case for allocating, say, £2bn from DfID's budget to the MoD as a contribution towards the standing cost of maintaining capacity for emergency humanitarian intervention.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/07/labour-conservatives-opinion-poll-miliband-cameron
Opinium/Observer Lab 34% Con 32% UKIP 15% Green 8% Lib Dem 7%
Perhaps the "Ed is Crap" meme has been pushed so hard and long the public no longer take notice of it.
DecrepitJohnL It was of course the government target the civil servants had to meet
Confidence and supply on some issues and abstention on others would suit both Labour and the SNP. Once a minority government is formed the general public aren't going to be interested in who votes through each individual bill.
But, in any case, you are obviously happy with the idea that criminals should be supported for the rest of their lives by the state.