o/t - The crowdfunder appeal to raise money to stand a Green candidate in every constituency in England and Wales has really taken off. It was less than £10k earlier in the week, it's almost halfway there at nearly £35k now. That's 70 extra candidates so far. Could there be a full slate of Green candidates in England and Wales in May?
"Did you hear about the gangs of white taxi drivers in the market towns of Southern England who over a period of decades have been grooming, drugging and serially raping under-age girls of Pakistani Kashmiri heritage?
No of course not. It hasn’t happened and it couldn’t happen for any number of cultural reasons, the main one being this: the very second that the social services or the police or the victims’ community got even a whiff of what was going on there would be all hell to pay."
So all those high profile, rich, white, middle class entertainers and media figures got away with child abuse for decades due to cultural reasons did they?
What we know now is that the police and agencies will often go to great lengths to avoid taking action when children say that they have been sexually abused. And we also know that sexual predators know that.
My Dad was an academy coach at West Ham, and a PE teacher in East London. He coached mentally handicapped men in Tower Hamlets, and all black football side in the East End called Lucia Sportif.
Then one day he called a kid at the school a "tube", god knows why, apparently Scottish slang he had heard on talksport...
Read the multiple reports of child abuse. That's exactly what happens.
They look the other way when people tell the truth as well.. it depends on the agenda of the people in charge
The accused was a white Englishman, the "victim" was an African immigrant.. charged immediately and put on bail despite no evidence
The accused is a Asian Muslim, the victim is a white working class girl.. look the other way
There have been plenty of immigrant victims of abuse whose stories have not been listened to or acted upon. Likewise, a lot of white men have sexually abused white working class children and they have got away with it because the kids have been ignored. That does not make what happened to your Dad excusable, of course; but it is a fact.
The point is that the people in charge should have no agenda. The abusers are almost always on some pedestal or other.
Idolisation of celebrity is to blame for years of negligence in the case of Saville,, Harris etc
Fawning over ethnic minorities is to blame for negligence in the cases in Rotherham
It was one of the reasons, for sure. But I agree with you - there should never be an agenda.
@Anorak And your points apply to the average constable on the street as well.
Indeed. Bent coppers get away with a great deal for years, and some get away with it indefinitely.
The awful thing about abuse is that a court case is hugely traumatic for the victim, who's credibility will be smashed into from day 1. Even if you, as a copper, KNOW they did it, there's a reasonable chance they'll get off. And that's if the CPS even let the case get that far. I'd also guess a reasonable proportion of parents want the whole thing to just 'go away' and will not let their child testify.
o/t - The crowdfunder appeal to raise money to stand a Green candidate in every constituency in England and Wales has really taken off. It was less than £10k earlier in the week, it's almost halfway there at nearly £35k now. That's 70 extra candidates so far. Could there be a full slate of Green candidates in England and Wales in May?
Mr. Neil, do you reckon that will help or hinder the bets on low proportions of Green candidate retaining their deposits?
It can only help as the extra candidates will be in areas that by definition are less well organised. It will hinder any match bets on the Greens getting a lower vote share than the Lib Dems if you know anyone with such a stake. Gulp. (I'm joshing, I'd be delighted to lose that bet but I still think I wont even if I assumed only standing in 75% of the seats when I offered it.)
Interesting to hear Martyn Williams on Scrum V over the week-end. I reckon he's a very, very shrewd judge.
Scotland are being called the dark horses of the tournament, but Williams said he reckoned they wouldn;t be. He reckons they'll underperform as much as they have recently.
So sell the Scotland spread might be one way to go. Trouble is, if they get stuffed in Paris the game will already be up and there won't be anything left in the trade.
I'm usually very apprehensive about backing Wales, but I think they have a great chance.
England and Ireland at home. They must start as favourites in both of those.
England have lots of players out, crucial ones too: Launchbury and Parling (lineout leaders), Lawes (best forward?), Wilson scrummaged well in the autum and he's out. Tom Wood is gone too, a good player and another lineout option. And Ben Morgan is arguably the best impact player in the world. Gone. That's just the forwards. Add in Farrell, Barritt (defensive leaders both) and Tuilagi and it is not a full-strength squad. Wales must fancy it.
Ireland have problems too. Sean O'Brien not match-fit, neither is Cian Healy. Two crucial players.
France look as unpredictable as ever. Saint Andre trying out his 14th half-back combination.
Scotland will be decent, but lack cutting edge. Defensively they looked a good side in the autumn, but I don't think they'll threaten to win it by any measure.
Italy will be poor.
Wales have everybody fit except Ken Owens (who will be a big loss). We will be boring (Gatlandball!!) and direct - and I hate that, but hey - and if we can squeeze past England, you know what Wales are like, we'll be cock-the-walk through the whole 6N.
If I had to bet though I'd go for no Grand Slam this year. All the big guns will be keeping their powder dry for the WC.
Mr. Neil, do you reckon that will help or hinder the bets on low proportions of Green candidate retaining their deposits?
It can only help as the extra candidates will be in areas that by definition are less well organised. It will hinder any match bets on the Greens getting a lower vote share than the Lib Dems if you know anyone with such a stake. Gulp. (I'm joshing, I'd be delighted to lose that bet but I still think I wont even if I assumed only standing in 75% of the seats when I offered it.)
If you overshoot the £75k target would you mind using the surplus to put up 2 Green candidates in some of your better-organised areas? You know, to give people a real choice, and all that.
Britain Elects @britainelects · 5m5 minutes ago Belfast East poll (LucidTalk): DUP - 34% (+1) ALL - 29% (-8) DUP set for close regain. (changes from 2010)
His argument is that if we have an hung parliament Cameron might resign immediately, rather than following Brown's example. Since the country needs a PM, Clegg would be a neutral choice to full the vacancy, until a coalition was negotiated.
A quick resignation by Cameron is certainly possible. He won't want to be accused of clinging to power the way Brown was, so if a Lib-Lab coalition looks inevitable he might well resign without waiting for them to sort out their coalition arrangements.
However, even in that scenario, I doubt Clegg would get to be PM for a month. Harvet is probably being rather optimistic.
Mr. Neil, do you reckon that will help or hinder the bets on low proportions of Green candidate retaining their deposits?
It can only help as the extra candidates will be in areas that by definition are less well organised. It will hinder any match bets on the Greens getting a lower vote share than the Lib Dems if you know anyone with such a stake. Gulp. (I'm joshing, I'd be delighted to lose that bet but I still think I wont even if I assumed only standing in 75% of the seats when I offered it.)
If you overshoot the £75k target would you mind using the surplus to put up 2 Green candidates in some of your better-organised areas? You know, to give people a real choice, and all that.
I'll stick it in the suggestion box.
By my reckoning the party has raised nearly £500,000 (most of that from a single donation) in the last month or so. The target seats are going to have well resourced campaigns.
Mr. Fenster, could be wrong, but I have a vague notion that Wales and Ireland, when playing one another, actually have better records away than at home.
Britain Elects @britainelects · 5m5 minutes ago Belfast East poll (LucidTalk): DUP - 34% (+1) ALL - 29% (-8) DUP set for close regain. (changes from 2010)
His argument is that if we have an hung parliament Cameron might resign immediately, rather than following Brown's example. Since the country needs a PM, Clegg would be a neutral choice to full the vacancy, until a coalition was negotiated.
A quick resignation by Cameron is certainly possible. He won't want to be accused of clinging to power the way Brown was, so if a Lib-Lab coalition looks inevitable he might well resign without waiting for them to sort out their coalition arrangements.
However, even in that scenario, I doubt Clegg would get to be PM for a month. Harvet is probably being rather optimistic.
Lol. HuffPo subs have turned "f*cked off" from an adjective in the text into a verb {at least on the most natural reading) in the headline. Very versatile word.
Britain Elects @britainelects · 5m5 minutes ago Belfast East poll (LucidTalk): DUP - 34% (+1) ALL - 29% (-8) DUP set for close regain. (changes from 2010)
I'm surprised it's that close. Gives Naomi Long a better shot at holding on than I would have thought. After the flegs disgrace the DUP really dont deserve to win this.
His argument is that if we have an hung parliament Cameron might resign immediately, rather than following Brown's example. Since the country needs a PM, Clegg would be a neutral choice to full the vacancy, until a coalition was negotiated.
A quick resignation by Cameron is certainly possible. He won't want to be accused of clinging to power the way Brown was, so if a Lib-Lab coalition looks inevitable he might well resign without waiting for them to sort out their coalition arrangements.
However, even in that scenario, I doubt Clegg would get to be PM for a month. Harvet is probably being rather optimistic.
If the alternative was Salmond, it would be the Cleggasm all over again...
By my reckoning the party has raised nearly £500,000 (most of that from a single donation) in the last month or so. The target seats are going to have well resourced campaigns.
A-ha! Beholden to big donors, just like the Tories.
Vote for the Always Respecting the Socialist Environment Party instead, for a truly radical left-wing approach.
His argument is that if we have an hung parliament Cameron might resign immediately, rather than following Brown's example. Since the country needs a PM, Clegg would be a neutral choice to full the vacancy, until a coalition was negotiated.
A quick resignation by Cameron is certainly possible. He won't want to be accused of clinging to power the way Brown was, so if a Lib-Lab coalition looks inevitable he might well resign without waiting for them to sort out their coalition arrangements.
However, even in that scenario, I doubt Clegg would get to be PM for a month. Harvet is probably being rather optimistic.
Lol. HuffPo subs have turned "f*cked off" from an adjective in the text into a verb {at least on the most natural reading) in the headline. Very versatile word.
Most versatile word in the English language. Here's an example.
His argument is that if we have an hung parliament Cameron might resign immediately, rather than following Brown's example. Since the country needs a PM, Clegg would be a neutral choice to full the vacancy, until a coalition was negotiated.
A quick resignation by Cameron is certainly possible. He won't want to be accused of clinging to power the way Brown was, so if a Lib-Lab coalition looks inevitable he might well resign without waiting for them to sort out their coalition arrangements.
However, even in that scenario, I doubt Clegg would get to be PM for a month. Harvet is probably being rather optimistic.
If the alternative was Salmond, it would be the Cleggasm all over again...
[But I think Harvey is talking crap]
He is. In the scenario outlined above upon Cameron's resignation the Queen would immediately send for the leader of the opposition, which is Miliband.
Miliband would then form an interim administration whilst coalition agreements were finalised.
His argument is that if we have an hung parliament Cameron might resign immediately, rather than following Brown's example. Since the country needs a PM, Clegg would be a neutral choice to full the vacancy, until a coalition was negotiated.
A quick resignation by Cameron is certainly possible. He won't want to be accused of clinging to power the way Brown was, so if a Lib-Lab coalition looks inevitable he might well resign without waiting for them to sort out their coalition arrangements.
However, even in that scenario, I doubt Clegg would get to be PM for a month. Harvet is probably being rather optimistic.
If the alternative was Salmond, it would be the Cleggasm all over again...
[But I think Harvey is talking crap]
He is. In the scenario outlined above upon Cameron's resignation the Queen would immediately send for the leader of the opposition, which is Miliband.
Miliband would then form an interim administration whilst coalition agreements were finalised.
The Tories would nominate a temporary leader.
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
I can't fathom why so many adults in positions of authority and power always turn the other cheek when it comes to hearing reports of child abuse, of whatever stripe.
I can only imagine that it's because it's so intensely disturbing and unpleasant to engage with, particularly when there is often an eloquent and articulate adult on one side, and an emotional and confused child on another, to just dismiss it and try to forget you ever heard about it.
1) There's a natural tendency to believe that X couldn't possibly be the type. 2) It's unpleasant. 3) X is often terrifically useful/dangerous to piss off. 4) The emotional and confused kid is never normally seen by the person to whom the allegations come, so that person doesn't feel invested in helping that kid. 5) If it all gets out, it will be tremendously messy. 6) It could all very well be completely untrue, in which case there would have been a huge amount of angst for no good reason.
7) I'm up to my neck in it as well.
8) The child is making it all up.
Children can, and do, invent the most outlandish stories, and sometimes allegations will be dismissed as such for that reason.
(Actually ignore that - point 6 covered it)
I suspect this is linked to all sorts of changes in behaviour by adults.
Take one of the most read stories on the bbc website - kids no longer showering after PE. I was kinda surprised such an inane story was so high up the "most read" story list, but it did get me thinking. IIRC, the article covered the *kids having insecurities* explanation for not bothering to shower, but it said nothing about why teachers don't expect/make sure the kids shower any more. Then it occurred to me - If you're a PE teacher, you're probably not going to want to go anywhere near teenage kids showering, or even broach the showering issue at all. The potential for *nudge nudge wink wink* rumours is huge. A single false allegation would be devastating.
His argument is that if we have an hung parliament Cameron might resign immediately, rather than following Brown's example. Since the country needs a PM, Clegg would be a neutral choice to full the vacancy, until a coalition was negotiated.
A quick resignation by Cameron is certainly possible. He won't want to be accused of clinging to power the way Brown was, so if a Lib-Lab coalition looks inevitable he might well resign without waiting for them to sort out their coalition arrangements.
However, even in that scenario, I doubt Clegg would get to be PM for a month. Harvet is probably being rather optimistic.
Why Clegg only interim PM?
If the Lib Dems held a true balance of power, Clegg could be permanent PM with a supply and confidence arrangement with either Lab or Con and switching between them as needed depending on the issue before parliament.
Britain Elects @britainelects · 5m5 minutes ago Belfast East poll (LucidTalk): DUP - 34% (+1) ALL - 29% (-8) DUP set for close regain. (changes from 2010)
A marginal help for Dave to form a minority.
Another interesting seat is Fermanagh and South Tyrone. I know virtually nothing about it other than a Unionist unity candidate backed by both the DUP and Conservatives came within 4 votes of being elected in GE2010. If he had won, he had pledged to take the Conservative whip on national (UK non-NI) issues.
If that is taken this time, as well as Belfast East, there could be 10 credible NI allies for the Conservatives, rather than eight. That's make the target figure for the Conservatives governing "alone" for the parliament around 314 seats. Virtually no Labour losses at all and a healthy dozen Lib Dem gains.
Highly improbable but not totally and utterly impossible either.
Incidentally, I don't know if any bookies are taking bets on NI constituencies.
Just a slight worry on the pile of money I've got on Dougie's seat - Any chance he gets a shadow foreign Secretary boost or does that sort of thing not concern your average Paisley voter ?
I am much more concerned that the SNP have put up a 19 year old. But perhaps that might be a masterstroke - inadvertently? - given the profile of Yes voters?
If she's 19 then she must be like the new Scottish Barack Obama or something. UKIP's Boston candidate seems quite good and he is very young.
She's not the Scottish Barack Obama, Mike didn't tip her at 50/1
Was that @MikeK or @MikeL .... PB deserves to know of such heroics.
It was Mike S our genial host who backed Obama at 50/1.
On the US betting front, which will hot up once GE 2015 is out of the way, I see Jeb Bush odds have halved since I took a punt on October. Now at between 5 and 7 depending on which bookmaker.
I'm also taking a close look at Scott Walker.
Scott Walker will crumble on the national stage, his machine politics in Wisconsin will kill him nationally.
@Flightpath One of the things that goes on with the police is a sense of moral superiority. This tends to foster an "us and them" gang mentality and allows them to decide who it is important to protect, and who can be disregarded. While this is not true for all of them, the institution itself means that the better officers learn to keep their mouths shut about the wrong doing of the others.
The moral superiority if that existed has not led I think to an 'us and them'. But yes, it seems to me to have led to them being judgemental. But what is worse is that it has led to some wide conspiracy; deliberate or accidental, it has led to the police the criminals and the police's own masters conspiring together. The only crumb of comfort for me is that all these crimes took place under 13 years of Labour misrule and it illustrates the dangers of political hegemony and large majorities. I'm sure most people of all religions and political persuasions are amazed and devastated at what has gone on - but just how is it that the police were so 'politicised'? I am of the firm belief that the Met was politicised under the Blair regime. It seems to have been wider than that.
If I had a pound for every time OGH has reminded us that "the Tories require a vote lead of 11.4% in order not to lose seats to Labour", I would indeed be a wealthy man. It does become ever so slightly tedious at the 30th or 40th time of reading! However when linking this priceless if oft repeated piece of information to a thread header suggesting, as he does here, that "Labour most seats" is the the best value GE2015 bet, then perhaps it would be as well were he to include the important caveat that Labour looks likely to lose around 30 seats, possibly more, to the SNP. After all, this may prove to be the crucial element in determining which party wins the most seats and cannot surely be simply be ignored in the arithmetic.
@Flightpath One of the things that goes on with the police is a sense of moral superiority. This tends to foster an "us and them" gang mentality and allows them to decide who it is important to protect, and who can be disregarded. While this is not true for all of them, the institution itself means that the better officers learn to keep their mouths shut about the wrong doing of the others.
The moral superiority if that existed has not led I think to an 'us and them'. But yes, it seems to me to have led to them being judgemental. But what is worse is that it has led to some wide conspiracy; deliberate or accidental, it has led to the police the criminals and the police's own masters conspiring together. The only crumb of comfort for me is that all these crimes took place under 13 years of Labour misrule and it illustrates the dangers of political hegemony and large majorities. I'm sure most people of all religions and political persuasions are amazed and devastated at what has gone on - but just how is it that the police were so 'politicised'? I am of the firm belief that the Met was politicised under the Blair regime. It seems to have been wider than that.
You are either young, or have a short memory.
It goes back decades. A perfectly decent Home Secretary, Merlyn Rees, was heckled, booed and slow hand-clapped by the Police Federation in 1977. It probably goes but earlier, but what nonsense to suggest Police misconduct switches on and off with changes of administration.
Comments
The awful thing about abuse is that a court case is hugely traumatic for the victim, who's credibility will be smashed into from day 1. Even if you, as a copper, KNOW they did it, there's a reasonable chance they'll get off. And that's if the CPS even let the case get that far. I'd also guess a reasonable proportion of parents want the whole thing to just 'go away' and will not let their child testify.
England and Ireland at home. They must start as favourites in both of those.
England have lots of players out, crucial ones too: Launchbury and Parling (lineout leaders), Lawes (best forward?), Wilson scrummaged well in the autum and he's out. Tom Wood is gone too, a good player and another lineout option. And Ben Morgan is arguably the best impact player in the world. Gone. That's just the forwards. Add in Farrell, Barritt (defensive leaders both) and Tuilagi and it is not a full-strength squad. Wales must fancy it.
Ireland have problems too. Sean O'Brien not match-fit, neither is Cian Healy. Two crucial players.
France look as unpredictable as ever. Saint Andre trying out his 14th half-back combination.
Scotland will be decent, but lack cutting edge. Defensively they looked a good side in the autumn, but I don't think they'll threaten to win it by any measure.
Italy will be poor.
Wales have everybody fit except Ken Owens (who will be a big loss). We will be boring (Gatlandball!!) and direct - and I hate that, but hey - and if we can squeeze past England, you know what Wales are like, we'll be cock-the-walk through the whole 6N.
If I had to bet though I'd go for no Grand Slam this year. All the big guns will be keeping their powder dry for the WC.
Worth betting on Italy losing all five.
Belfast East poll (LucidTalk):
DUP - 34% (+1)
ALL - 29% (-8)
DUP set for close regain.
(changes from 2010)
His argument is that if we have an hung parliament Cameron might resign immediately, rather than following Brown's example. Since the country needs a PM, Clegg would be a neutral choice to full the vacancy, until a coalition was negotiated.
A quick resignation by Cameron is certainly possible. He won't want to be accused of clinging to power the way Brown was, so if a Lib-Lab coalition looks inevitable he might well resign without waiting for them to sort out their coalition arrangements.
However, even in that scenario, I doubt Clegg would get to be PM for a month. Harvet is probably being rather optimistic.
By my reckoning the party has raised nearly £500,000 (most of that from a single donation) in the last month or so. The target seats are going to have well resourced campaigns.
[But I think Harvey is talking crap]
Vote for the Always Respecting the Socialist Environment Party instead, for a truly radical left-wing approach.
Line was 10.5
Chap falls of his motorbike and says
"F*ck, the f*cking f*ckers f*cking f*cked"
Miliband would then form an interim administration whilst coalition agreements were finalised.
DUP 1/4
Alliance 2/1 (Betfair)
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/election-poll-dup-on-course-to-win-lost-east-belfast-seat-but-its-no-certainty-30965379.html
The narrow gap and internal findings seems promising for Naomi Long to me.
Money and power are powerful drugs, and like all drugs, they need to be used wisely, but are often abused.
Tories would rather trap their manhoods in the door than let Clegg become Prime Minister.
Since Hague has gone there's only one chap to be Temporary leader of the Tory party.
Kenneth Clarke.
Take one of the most read stories on the bbc website - kids no longer showering after PE. I was kinda surprised such an inane story was so high up the "most read" story list, but it did get me thinking. IIRC, the article covered the *kids having insecurities* explanation for not bothering to shower, but it said nothing about why teachers don't expect/make sure the kids shower any more. Then it occurred to me - If you're a PE teacher, you're probably not going to want to go anywhere near teenage kids showering, or even broach the showering issue at all. The potential for *nudge nudge wink wink* rumours is huge. A single false allegation would be devastating.
Why Clegg only interim PM?
If the Lib Dems held a true balance of power, Clegg could be permanent PM with a supply and confidence arrangement with either Lab or Con and switching between them as needed depending on the issue before parliament.
If that is taken this time, as well as Belfast East, there could be 10 credible NI allies for the Conservatives, rather than eight. That's make the target figure for the Conservatives governing "alone" for the parliament around 314 seats. Virtually no Labour losses at all and a healthy dozen Lib Dem gains.
Highly improbable but not totally and utterly impossible either.
Incidentally, I don't know if any bookies are taking bets on NI constituencies.
However when linking this priceless if oft repeated piece of information to a thread header suggesting, as he does here, that "Labour most seats" is the the best value GE2015 bet, then perhaps it would be as well were he to include the important caveat that Labour looks likely to lose around 30 seats, possibly more, to the SNP. After all, this may prove to be the crucial element in determining which party wins the most seats and cannot surely be simply be ignored in the arithmetic.
It goes back decades. A perfectly decent Home Secretary, Merlyn Rees, was heckled, booed and slow hand-clapped by the Police Federation in 1977. It probably goes but earlier, but what nonsense to suggest Police misconduct switches on and off with changes of administration.