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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clegg 10% behind LAB in Sheffield Hallam according to UNITE
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clegg 10% behind LAB in Sheffield Hallam according to UNITE/Survation poll
UNITE poll carried out by Survation has LAB with 12% lead over Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam. LAB 33, LD 23, CON 22, UKIP 9 GRN 12
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Most of all, it doesn't split with the very respectable local election results the LDs have recorded in the seat since 2010.
On the other hand, Ashcroft didn't exactly have Clegg romping home either. The hardest but best bets in political betting are the ones where you decide a poll is wrong/misleading. I'm reluctant to do so, but this might be one of those times.
Maybe it is time that we bring unions under the same sort of controls that exist to ensure that charities are kept to their primary goals rather than straying into matters that have nothing to do with them...
As I recall, Sheffield Hallam was regarded as a fairly safe Tory seat until 97.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/rotherham/winning-party
Ironically, that involved a Sheffield Hallam Poll
@afneil: Unlikely ECB wld take such tough position re Greece without having squared Germany 1st. If it sticks to it, Greece out of the eurozone
The top of the Lib Dems will look very different if Clegg and Alexander are gone.
"No 3: Well, well, what a surprise. Seumas Milne thinks the answer is.. to move left. Who'd a thunk it?"
Leaving out any idealogical preference I think he's right. Labour will not just drift to victory and as the clock is striking midnight they're realizing it. They need a sharp USP which can only be going hard left. Big attacks on hedge funds tax avoiders the super rich....and then go massive on soup kitchens bedroom taxes IDS etc etc.
Don't let themselves get bogged down in detail like Ed B foolishly did last night.
Jahangir Akhtar.. hmmmm
That said, do you judge the girls of Thailand and Rotherham equally ? Or, are you helping the Thai economy ? You did not answer that part of the question by your accusation at me and Fox and others.
ie GE voting intention asked as Q1 with nothing beforehand?
If not, it's meaningless.
On topic, I'd expect the Conservatives to gain far less than 22% here, and Clegg to hold it.
Surely Ashcroft doesn't provide enough new evidence to justify such a large move?
Well lots of us have been sitting beside this particular river for five years. (Though I'll believe it when I see it)
On topic - Clegg with 53% of vote, and a Labour Council up to its eyeballs in a festering pit just up the road. Looks like mischief making, by Unite.
"The New Zealand judge in charge of the inquiry says "more than 100,000" victims"
Did they do the counting in Tower Hamlets?
When have I ever excused what went on in Rotherham?
I just do not think what went on their unique, though the control of this as well as other aspects of the vice trade by British Pakistani gangs is a worrying phenomenon for many reasons.
Despite being about 5% of the UK population, Muslims are about 15% of the overall jail population, and in some prisons nearly half. One of the most frequent steps to Jihadism is the trail of crime then prison, falling under the spell of Islamic gangs that give direction to a lot of unfocussed anger, then Jihadism of a born again puritan. This was the path of both the Rigby and Hebdo killers.
Breaking this chain of events is essential for the future of our country. The more that Brits like TSE get painted by the same brush, the less easy is it for young Muslim men to feel a part of this nation.
TSE's only crimes are against fashion and music. I can live with that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31141916
Can't say that I was ever impressed with Cameron's management of relations with Scotland.
Genuine question - I have a red on Lab in Hallam but it is a genuine question
Where is the sisterhood today? Harman? Abbot? The right on Leftie celebs?
I reckon the other 2 options of Toby/Natascha are safe so may as well see if we can put the sh**ts up the DPM
You'll love Dore.
Labour could have gone all-out for the 'magic money tree' vote, which I agree is quite large. Of course the problem with that strategy is that they might actually have won, and then what do they do?
Alternatively they could have gone for the 'vaguely sane finances but a bit more lefty than Osborne' vote, which is potentially larger.
Instead they've spent the last six years vacillating between the two, getting themselves into the ludicrous position of firstly arguing 'too far too fast', and then trying to argue that Osborne hadn't cut the deficit fast enough.
Currently their position is, putting it in the kindest possible terms, a studied exercise in obfuscation. I'm not sure that an abrupt switch to Syriza-style denial of reality would help. Firstly they'd have trouble, given the history to date, convincing the Seamus Milnes of this world that they really meant it, and secondly, for every Seamus Milne they did convince, they'd lose two sane left-leaning voters who are not in total denial about arithmetic.
Still has EICIPM as likely result
If you don't like it then tough. My judgement is that this is very important.
I'm sure you can find other sites to go to.
Is that the rough part of the constituency?
That said Lord Ashcroft has brought something new to polling and betting than the grind of noisy YouGov.
I am beginning to like him a bit. I won't hold his money or title against him.
@paulmasonnews: ECB launches "kill Greece" strategy - late night move forces Greek banks towards Greek central bank for support.
@LorcanRK: What The ECB's Move On Greek Government Debt Is Really All About http://t.co/DBIU1uvm4D
Mississippi Burning comes to East London
I'm not for one minute questioning his findings nor the value of them, I am more curious as to why he is actually doing it, it's hardly a profitable commercial enterprise for him.
Off topic, long day; I need to sleep. Night all.
You slavishly follow his every move and it's more than pathetic, it really is. It demeans you and it demands your site.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories ahead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%
Non-illogical poll alert.
CON back in the lead with YouGov
CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories ahead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%
In Scotland Labour looks fcuked come May and Tories back in lead with YouGov showing the Labour lead of 3% the other day was a rogue poll.
STV's political programme going big style on Ashcroft Scottish polls.
As for this Sheffield Hallam poll, can someone confirm if and when Survation ever predicted any poll correctly?
The role of the site is to create debate using the widest possible source of information. And to make a few bob for Mike.
Dead man walking...
Labour 32, Lib Dem 31 something like that would be more believable.
Thought I'd save you the effort tonight it's been a bad day for you.