politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let’s hope that the seats chosen for the Lord Ashcroft Sco
I'm hoping Lord Ashcroft has chosen a broad selection of Scottish seats so we'll be able to draw broad conclusions
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Comments
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For the benefit of Scottish Labour, this is what "first" looks like0
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Erm... Mike, did you set this to automatically publish a few hours ago?!
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The Good Lord delivered early.0
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Danny and Dougie waving bye to their seats0
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FPT:
If every SNP voter who says they haven't "ruled out" voting Labour actually does end up voting for them (without Labour losing any votes they currently have), that would actually be enough to save all those seats bar Dundee West.
That's the straw Labour can clutch at, anyway, to stop them all jumping out the office windows tomorrow.0 -
Come on _ admit it, who expected Labour behind in Coatbridge ?
I certainly didn't !0 -
Poor Mike.
Anyway, there are still a few value bets out there;
Kirkcaldy @ 7/2
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/kirkcaldy-and-cowdenbeath/winning-party
Inverclyde @ 5/6
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/inverclyde/winning-party
East Renfrewshire @ 5/2
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/renfrewshire-east/winning-party
And for anyone with a skybet account,
Over 32.5 SNP seats @ 10/110 -
Did Kirkcaldy have a decent yes vote despite being on East coast . IM on at 5.5 but didn't think it may win.0
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Oh, and also Betfair Sportsbook are offering 25/1 against EdM asking his first PMQ question on "terrorism"
I'd say that's a fair bit more likely than 4%.0 -
I think the broad conclusion is that Scottish Labour is tucked.0
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We didn't get referendum breakdowns just for kirkcaldy - fife was IIRC ~44% yesPulpstar said:Did Kirkcaldy have a decent yes vote despite being on East coast . IM on at 5.5 but didn't think it may win.
The Kirkcaldy east council byelection result was published on PB a couple of weeks back - broadly in line with these ashcroft polls.
We're looking at a complete labour collapse.0 -
Amazing !Pong said:
We didn't get referendum breakdowns just for kirkcaldy - fife was IIRC ~44% yesPulpstar said:Did Kirkcaldy have a decent yes vote despite being on East coast . IM on at 5.5 but didn't think it may win.
The Kirkcaldy east council byelection result was published on PB a couple of weeks back - broadly in line with these ashcroft polls.
We're looking at a complete labour collapse.0 -
Cameron more popular than Ed in Glasgow...0
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Expect Sturgeon to rule out abstaining in a Conmost seats parliament imo.Danny565 said:FPT:
If every SNP voter who says they haven't "ruled out" voting Labour actually does end up voting for them (without Labour losing any votes they currently have), that would actually be enough to save all those seats bar Dundee West.
That's the straw Labour can clutch at, anyway, to stop them all jumping out the office windows tomorrow.0 -
There's a fair chance the SNP will do even better than these polls suggest.
They've got the ground operation.0 -
Kirkcaldy is the best value out of those:Pong said:Poor Mike.
Anyway, there are still a few value bets out there;
Kirkcaldy @ 7/2
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/kirkcaldy-and-cowdenbeath/winning-party
Inverclyde @ 5/6
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/inverclyde/winning-party
East Renfrewshire @ 5/2
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/renfrewshire-east/winning-party
And for anyone with a skybet account,
Over 32.5 SNP seats @ 10/11
1. the SNP won the nearest equivalent seat in 2011.
2. Labour's majority in 2010 was artificially high because Gordon Brown was standing (no longer applicable)
3. the SNP won the recent council by-election by a fair margin in a ward that they lost in 2012.
The other two, not so much. Labour held both nearest equivalent seats in 2011 and held Inverclyde in a WM by-election (due to the death of David Cairns) soon after.0 -
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Incidentally the Labour most votes, Tories most seats are beginning to look attractive. I got on at 67/1. There could be a lot of second places for Labour in Scotland.
Still 25/1 with Shadsy0
