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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let’s hope that the seats chosen for the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling are varied enough to draw broad conclusions

I'm hoping Lord Ashcroft has chosen a broad selection of Scottish seats so we'll be able to draw broad conclusions
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tpfkar

For the benefit of Scottish Labour, this is what "first" looks like

Danny565

Erm... Mike, did you set this to automatically publish a few hours ago?!

Pulpstar

The Good Lord delivered early.

Pulpstar

Danny565 said:

Erm... Mike, did you set this to automatically publish a few hours ago?!

Like Lord Ashcroft did with the polls

Pulpstar

Danny and Dougie waving bye to their seats

Danny565

FPT:

If every SNP voter who says they haven't "ruled out" voting Labour actually does end up voting for them (without Labour losing any votes they currently have), that would actually be enough to save all those seats bar Dundee West.

That's the straw Labour can clutch at, anyway, to stop them all jumping out the office windows tomorrow.

Pulpstar

Come on _ admit it, who expected Labour behind in Coatbridge ?

I certainly didn't !

Pong

Poor Mike.

Anyway, there are still a few value bets out there;

Kirkcaldy @ 7/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/kirkcaldy-and-cowdenbeath/winning-party

Inverclyde @ 5/6

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/inverclyde/winning-party

East Renfrewshire @ 5/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/renfrewshire-east/winning-party

And for anyone with a skybet account,

Over 32.5 SNP seats @ 10/11

Pulpstar

Did Kirkcaldy have a decent yes vote despite being on East coast . IM on at 5.5 but didn't think it may win.

Pong

Oh, and also Betfair Sportsbook are offering 25/1 against EdM asking his first PMQ question on "terrorism"

I'd say that's a fair bit more likely than 4%.

Pulpstar

I think the broad conclusion is that Scottish Labour is tucked.

Pong

Pulpstar said:

Did Kirkcaldy have a decent yes vote despite being on East coast . IM on at 5.5 but didn't think it may win.

We didn't get referendum breakdowns just for kirkcaldy - fife was IIRC ~44% yes

The Kirkcaldy east council byelection result was published on PB a couple of weeks back - broadly in line with these ashcroft polls.

We're looking at a complete labour collapse.

Pulpstar

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

Did Kirkcaldy have a decent yes vote despite being on East coast . IM on at 5.5 but didn't think it may win.

We didn't get referendum breakdowns just for kirkcaldy - fife was IIRC ~44% yes

The Kirkcaldy east council byelection result was published on PB a couple of weeks back - broadly in line with these ashcroft polls.

We're looking at a complete labour collapse.

Amazing !

Pulpstar

Cameron more popular than Ed in Glasgow...

Pulpstar

Danny565 said:

FPT:

If every SNP voter who says they haven't "ruled out" voting Labour actually does end up voting for them (without Labour losing any votes they currently have), that would actually be enough to save all those seats bar Dundee West.

That's the straw Labour can clutch at, anyway, to stop them all jumping out the office windows tomorrow.

Expect Sturgeon to rule out abstaining in a Conmost seats parliament imo.

Pong

There's a fair chance the SNP will do even better than these polls suggest.

They've got the ground operation.

JamesMo

Pong said:

Poor Mike.

Anyway, there are still a few value bets out there;

Kirkcaldy @ 7/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/kirkcaldy-and-cowdenbeath/winning-party

Inverclyde @ 5/6

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/inverclyde/winning-party

East Renfrewshire @ 5/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/renfrewshire-east/winning-party

And for anyone with a skybet account,

Over 32.5 SNP seats @ 10/11

Kirkcaldy is the best value out of those:

1. the SNP won the nearest equivalent seat in 2011.

2. Labour's majority in 2010 was artificially high because Gordon Brown was standing (no longer applicable)

3. the SNP won the recent council by-election by a fair margin in a ward that they lost in 2012.

The other two, not so much. Labour held both nearest equivalent seats in 2011 and held Inverclyde in a WM by-election (due to the death of David Cairns) soon after.

foxinsoxuk

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foxinsoxuk

Incidentally the Labour most votes, Tories most seats are beginning to look attractive. I got on at 67/1. There could be a lot of second places for Labour in Scotland.

Still 25/1 with Shadsy