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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A worrying trend for Ed Miliband’s team: Labour’s 2010 Lib
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A worrying trend for Ed Miliband’s team: Labour’s 2010 Lib Dem crutch is getting shorter
Over the last two years we’ve been keeping a lose eye on the group of swing voters who could have a big impact on the May 7th outcome – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but have now switched to Labour. In my latest calculation, for January, the number has dropped to a low point.
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Some of us said Ed's crap ratings would eventually catch up with Labour.
PB Tories, always right.
@politicshome: "I haven't been under any political pressure", Chief Operating Officer of NHS England, Barbara Hakin, tells BBC News
(Also their outperformance in London with relatively few marginals, Ealing Central & Acton won't win them the GE...)
The last ten YG headline scores have a Labour lead of 0.1%. If the Tories are level or in front tonight then they will have been over the last ten polls.
Congrat's [on N_S article] Mike.
Though I have noticed that the view "from outside the bubble" is often strikingly similar to the view "from inside the bubble"
Look no further than the general idea from both PB and the "bubble" that Cameron's stance of the debate's was a major error from him - Now I ask, how many Con leads did we have before Cameron said he wanted the Green's in the debates against the Con leads we've had since...?
But that's nit-picking. You and Robert and TSE and everyone at PB do a grand effort with the website.
Here and UKPR are the best political blog's in the country, IMO.
The May election is going to be Labour's Zama.
Does it drive people back to Labour in a frenzy of "Stop the Tories", or does it encourage less than certain Labour voters to leave the sinking ship because it looks like a loser?
BTW, I would think it's more likely these 2010 Red>Green Lib's will eventually find their way back to the Lib-Dem come "the day".
If Ed Miliband's Labour fall to a significant gap behind the Conservatives such as 3% or 4% the Blairites/new Labour folk are waiting to pounce.
The good news for the Conservatives and Lib Dems is that Burnham is highly favoured as EdM's replacement....
LD retain: 35.3-> 26.6
LD to LAB: 34.2-> 28
LD to Con: 12.2-> 13.7
LD to UKIP: 9.5-> 11.7
LD to Green: 5.4-> 15.6
As I have said before, the moment Labour gets any level of forensic examination, they collapse. The campaign is going to be a horror show for them. When their case on the NHS falls to bits on day 1 of 100, they are in for a rough ride.....
Still wondering how Burnham figures 4.4% private is good and 5.9% private is evil.
For the first tine the Tories move ahead of LAB in commons seat spreads
SportingIndex
http://goo.gl/0sfA2E
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-rows-see-fareham-parliamentary-candidate-suspended-and-then-quit-1-6543949
FPT: Its a lot less money for more rope than Australia and NZ
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/979cd9ee-edeb-11e1-8d72-00144feab49a.html (£) According to these people http://www.gpjobsinaustralia.co.uk/gp-jobs-australia/ Over all tax is lower there , and the standard of life argueably significantly higher.
I still hold to the view that come May, those on the right of the LibDems, who have stayed loyal through the Coalition while the left peeled off, will be under some turmoil as to whether they stay loyal and let in Ed Miliband, or vote Tory because Ed Is just too much of a liability and will put in jeopardy all that has been achieved under the Coalition.
Meanwhile more of the leftist former LibDems will despair at Ed and go Green.
Let's just say I expect this gap to narrow significantly.
If the Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling backs up what the Scottish VI polling is saying, then we're going to know with a bit more certainty that the Tories are going to the largest party, because I can't see Lab being the largest party if they've shed 30 MPs in North Britain.
If the Tories are going to be the largest party, then they've almost certainly won the popular vote.
What will Labour do, because their job is more difficult than the Tories. The Tories have only shed votes to one party, Dave can show some Eurosceptic leg and he can get some back.
Whereas Labour has shed votes to three parties, UKIP, the SNP and The Greens.
I'm not sure there's a policy that appeals to all three parties short of the Labour party giving Ed Miliband a public wedgie in Trafalgar Square.
LAB retain: 85.4-> 77.7
LAB to Con: 4.5-> 5.2
LAB to LD: 1.6-> 1.1
LAB to UKIP: 5 -> 7.1
LAB to Green: 0.7-> 3.6
Total bollocks. No one took any notice, and I suspect that many who did notice probably thought he was Labour anyway. That's the level of political knowledge for many once you go outside the leaders.
Individual disasters don't matter. Group disasters do if they're continuous. Ed's a group disaster but that's already factored into the polling.
Wark - the coalition has only increased the private sector by 1.5% whereas Labour increased it 4.4%
Burnham - yeah but Tories are continuing our policy which is bad..
Ye gods
I suggest anyone who has not seen this should because if it were an NHS hospital they would be declaring a major incident
Owen Smith MP @OwenSmithMP 34m34 minutes ago
Welsh Labour Government are today investing an extra £70m in our NHS - taking the budget to 6.7bn, the highest ever.
@politicshome: Caroline Flint says there is a difference between Labour's use of private NHS providers and "having a culture brought into our NHS". #bbcdp
30 seats is 4.6% of the seat total.
This DECIMATES Labour's efficiency.
FYI there is worse to come out about UKIP.
The alternative theory about Ed, aired repeatedly here over the last several years, is that his low personal ratings have not thus far been factored into VI polling but will begin to affect VI polling as the GE campaign gets under way. Let's wait and see.
I wonder if we are about to hear anything about Welsh ambulances.
@DPJHodges: You watch. Even as we speak, Ed's office are frantically inventing some arbitrary limit for private NHS provision.
I think the point he was trying to make was that in the early noughties there was a need for extra capacity to bring down waiting lists, but that point is now passed, and it is better for services to now become better integrated under the NHS umbrella.
Let us assume that the Tories maintain/widen their lead in the Westminster VI polls through to next week, and then the Ashcroft polling shows a bloodbath in Scotland, Labour might start to panic and turn in on itself.
More cracking news for labour on health in Wales...
and in Portsmouth, involving the same "official" and a collapsed association?
https://twitter.com/terryagrove/status/560408867541368832/photo/1
It also seems pretty clear that that bias to Labour is the reason the latter have felt able both to fill their boots and deploy such childish and nasty invective over that period - toffs, etc. There was no electoral penalty for being c0cks, because they had about 280 seats in the bag no matter what they said or did. Even if their entire local establishment tolerated child rape, or fabricated invoices to obtain fraudulent payments, a Labour MP would still be elected for the area.
The other parties have no such surefire vote in the bag. Libs deserted Thorpe and Tories deserted Neil Hamilton because they both stank. No stink is so bad it puts a Labour voter off voting Labour.
It's as they are somehow short of a sense. Not really all there.
22+ years ago when Dave was a young SPAD tucked away in Govt, now he is held accountable for NHS Wales....
They might not fall below 28 in the polls. What the actual numbers who turn out to actually vote for ed might tally up as is anybody's guess.
Do they routinely use helicopters in Gwynedd, Powys etc?
"Mr MacAskill said the new limit would send a 'clear message' to drivers who ignore the warnings that there is never an excuse to drink and drive. He said: 'Drink-driving shatters families and communities and we must take action to reduce the risk on our roads. The latest estimates show that approximately one in 10 deaths on Scottish roads involve drivers who are over the legal limit and research shows that even just one alcoholic drink before driving can make you three times as likely to be involved in a fatal car crash. As a result, 20 families every year have to cope with the loss of a loved one and around 760 people are treated for injuries caused by someone who thought it was acceptable to drink alcohol and get behind the wheel and drive. We cannot let this continue. That's why I have today introduced legislation to lower the drink-drive limit in Scotland so that, subject to parliamentary approval, new laws will be in place in time for the beginning of the festive period.'"
http://tinyurl.com/nhkn7pj
http://iainmacwhirter2.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/trident-job-losses-and-other.html
It just dawned on me, that will be 90 mins of them hurling insults about the NHS.
Cancel all the debates now.
Labour have dropped 3m votes from 1992, The conservative 3.5m
And Mike's just tweeted
Today's #PMQs is the best argument against having TV debates. This is dire.
So yeah, there's nothing really.
"If we can't win a PMQs on the NHS very easily, we're going to get f*cked in May"
1/3 of 20 is 6+ non-drunk drivers Which is what I stated at the start.
Random Advice
Weird Amid Bland
Go Cliche Slang (tried really hard to make it a shag or shlong joke to no avail)
Ale,Fag Reign
Been Anti Talent
Rules Contagion
Ewe And Loon (yes, a welsh sheep joke)
I'm not altogether happy with my Nicholas Clegg, if anyone can come up with a better one please let me know!
https://twitter.com/Betfair/status/560413096020553729
3 months to go, including a budget. Barring some national catastrophe or Cameron confessing that he is a closet transsexual who wears SamCam's lingerie to PMQ's, EdM is toast. The most useless political leader since Michael Foot. He has all of Cameron's faults and none of his strengths.
There's really only one major question now:
NOM?
or
Tory Outright?