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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New betting market: How many cabinet ministers will lose their seats?
Clearly the most vulnerable are the five Lib Dems and Education Secretary, Nicky Morgan, whose Loughborough seat is a marginal. Carmichael and Cable look pretty secure. Ed Davey should be OK in Kingston giving the recent Ashcroft poll.
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Is there also market on how many shadow cabinet ministers won't be back?
https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
"Opec, of which Saudi is the leading member - has been losing market share to shale oil producers in the world's largest economy with Nigeria recently dropping out of the list of member countries that supply North America."
Saudi is dropping prices so that it keeps up with the dropping price. It was losing market share otherwise.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11207301/Brent-crude-tumbles-as-Saudi-escalates-Opec-oil-price-war.html
Danny Alexander
Ed Davey
Nicky Morgan
Nick Clegg
Stephen Crabb
Vince Cable
The rest
One looks like the value bet to me at 3/1. But three at 4/1 is perhaps also worth a flutter.
Surprisingly, only two of them look at all vulnerable (Danny Alexander and Nicky Morgan)
I see the above still think EICIPM
What percentage of Green candidates will save their deposits (by winning more than 5% of the vote) at the General Election?
20% or below 8/1
and a saver on 21-30% at 6/1
Crabb is quite high profile, he's regularly on the Walesonline website.
IFS think LAB to borrow £25bn LD to borrow £26bn according to Sky
Only 9% of college-educated mothers who give birth each year are unmarried, compared with 61% of high-school dropouts.
http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/George-Osborne-s-unfortunate-Somerset-cider-farm/story-25928653-detail/story.html
Conservative http://www.nickymorgan.org
Labour http://matthewocallaghan.co.uk
UKIP's http://andyforloughborough.co.uk
Green party http://loughborough.greenparty.org.uk/news/2014/12/15/matt-sisson-selected-as-parliamentary-candidate-for-loughborough/
The Lib Dems can't seem to be arsed at the moment.
I'm not sure Wales is going to be as boring as everybody thinks. Plaid and UKIP could make it interesting.
Bridgend might be an interesting seat, labour defending a 2,000 majority.
The Wales-wide poll showed Labour on 37% (up 1% since the last poll in early December), the Conservatives on 23% (no change), Ukip on 16% (-2%), Plaid Cymru on 10% (-1%), the Greens on 8% (+3%), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (+1%) and Others on 1% (-1%).
Translated into seats, on a uniform swing it would see Labour on 28 (+2), the Conservatives on 8 (no change), Plaid Cymru on 3 (no change) and the Liberal Democrats on 1 (-2).
Cardiff North and Cardiff Central would be won by Labour, with Mari Williams beating the Conservatives’ new candidate Craig Williams in the former and Jo Stevens defeating Lib Dem sitting MP Jenny Willott in the latter.
In Brecon and Radnorshire, the Tories’ Chris Davies would defeat Lib Dem MP Roger Williams.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/general-election-could-damp-squib-8521804
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/yooqei4d9h/ITVWales_January15_w.pdf
Wonder how much impact last nights polls will make?
@Quincel has been quiet here of late...
41-50 per cent 2/1
31 - 40 per cent 3/1
51 - 60 per cent 3/1
21 to 30 per cent 11/2 [from 6/1]
20 per cent or below 7/1 [from 8/1]
61 to 70 per cent 17/2
71 to 80 per cent 10/1
81 per cent or above 14/1
Absurd imo.
Below 20% (@ 8-1) is a stonking bet - the Greens are going to be putting up more no hopers than ever.
Those red shoes.
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?day=7&month=5&msg=UK+General+Election&p0=0&year=2015
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11372177/The-prospect-of-a-coalition-between-Ed-Miliband-and-Alex-Salmond-could-win-the-election-for-the-Tories.html
"And one of the most powerful weapons available to the Tories could be, if it is given enough attention, the risks that flow from a minority Labour government being propped up by the SNP making further demands. Miliband has declined to rule out a pact on the duff advice of Labour in Scotland, based on the theory that voters north of the border are well used to pacts at Holyrood and would have little problem with a Labour/Nat deal in London. So that's okay, then?
No. It overlooks how unpopular the notion of Scots dictating to England is likely to be in much of England, particularly in the heavily populated south.
The Labour strategy also leaves the party looking utterly ridiculous on both sides of the border, with Miliband contemplating a deal with the Nats, while Jim Murphy fights to avoid the death (yes, the death) of the Scottish Labour party at the hands of the SNP."
Never forget: the same politicians, bankers and businesses who wanted us to follow Greece into the € now say Britain should stay in the EU
I agree that she should be safe this time round, although Lee Rowley seems to have been working very hard in the constituency and I think will put in a respectable performance.
Electoral Forecast has them making 5% in 189 seats (counting exactly 5 as a half-seat) based on a central forecast of 4.3%. In practice I think their vote distribution may be more skewed than this.
Labour are screwed.
The French have been told to repay 1 Billion Euros in falsely claimed CAP subsidies!
http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/country-news/France-told-to-repay-107bn-euros-in-EU-farm-aid_447270.html
Must have me as a marked account after I slammed into Hallam.
EDIT The market has closed again.
EDIT - it obviously works out your max bet as £100/current price, rounded, less whatever you've had already. Dunno whether the £100 is standard limit or whether I'm cut.
For the first time in 30 years, North East Derbyshire is one of the most marginal seats in the country. Based on the General Election result in 2010, it is likely that whoever wins North East Derbyshire in 2015 will be the party that forms the next majority government.
I think Natascha will win but dont think that means EICIPM
Shame about Ed Davey.
Ukip founder Dr Alan Sked tells @HuffPostUKPol @DouglasCarswell 'lacks backbone to confront Farage + has charisma of a wet turd'. Charming!
10.0
He'll hold I'm afraid, London Conservatives are no SNP.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/glasgow-bin-lorry-tragedy-sick-5049731
Read what the tweets said - there's a hatfull of stand-up comedians who say 'worse' every night. Sure it was distasteful, but people need to get off the outrage bus and grow some thicker skin. And the police need to spend their time elsewhere.
How the hell did we end up in a situation like this? The hypocrisy after the defence of Charlie Hebdo is startling.
[although I do like the Record's reporting style: "On the same day, tattooed clown Denny posted about the “elaborate skittle show” in Glasgow.", and, "Another degenerate, Ricky Clobb, posted: 'Hope the driver wasn’t the same guy who was flying that helicopter last year.'" Very malcolmg.]
You are right that the converse doesn't hold. Also I think the Tories won't do as well here as in some other target seats.
Even so, isn't this the sort of event that royals are made for?
27/01/2015 11:59
Former UKIP candidate for Great Yarmouth @_Matthew_Smith not guilty of 4 counts of electoral fraud
In general, why is it permissible to treat people in this way so personally? How many depressions, nervous breakdowns and suicides do you consider acceptable?
That's where I find the arguments in favour of free speech weak. Because they do real harm to people in this sort of case. I'd be grateful if someone could resolve the issue, because I don't want free speech to be lost either.
"Malicious communication"?!? How long has that been an offence? That just sounds like an outright restriction on free speech - you can't even claim it incites hatred.
25/1 bar the pair.
There are plenty of younger royals around. Are they all so incredibly busy that not one could have turned up at probably the last official commemoration where there will still be living survivors present? And at a time when we have seen a rise in murderous anti-Semitism in Europe?
I would not be surprised if it returns to a nominal Labour lead but equally a Tory lead of 1-3 is plausible.
Je ne suis Charlie.
There were plenty of off colour jokes about Nasa when the NASA Shuttle crashed.- need another seven astronauts.
How far families of the bereaved would have seen the twitter comments is another matter, but allowing Twitter to become a court of public opinion is not a desirable outcome. If the joke was made in a comedy club, it may have been received with a stony silence. Perhaps the guy who made the Tweet should remember Wellington - publish and be damned.