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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 6th 2013
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 6th 2013
As I mentioned last time when we had a by-election in Newcastle, the council reflects precisely was has been happening with the Liberal Democrats post coalition and judging by what happened last time, I would expect more of the same.
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEtSTDNlVzhGcWl3RF9iMUd3aGJmWnc#gid=0
http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2013/06/lincoln-pcso-crawls-through-burning-flat-to-save-resident/
PCSOs unfairly get a lot of stick for not being 'proper policemen'. To my mind the question of police resourcing is entirely separate from the great work these people do and they should get a lot more credit for helping to keep us safe.
"Police Community Support Officers are members of support staff employed, directed and managed by their Police Force. They will work to complement and support regular police officers, providing a visible and accessible uniformed presence to improve the quality of life in the community and offer greater public reassurance.
PCSOs are not replacement police officers but are there to address some of the tasks that do not require the experience or powers held by police officers, which often take officers away from more appropriate duties."
This is an interesting day. Labour are obviously shining a bit of a light at their past nonsensical statements, but very few will spot that. However this is part of a plan, and if they get the other bits and pieces in line then good luck to them. I doubt it'll change their polling numbers by an iota, but some sort of connection with reality from Labour was long overdue, and perhaps if this trend continues they may go into the next GE without having to blatantly lie.
The LDs vote is suffering because they are delivering what they promised... A voice in government if they had the mandate. They are suffering because the average voter doesn't understand the system. I apologise to the aforesaid average voter should he be reading this, but that has to be the conclusion.
Three a day between now and the general election and we might have a Tory hold in Warwickshire.
A few weeks ago and the left were wailing about the admission "We are all Thatcherites now".
Now Miliband stands up and admits "We are all Cameroons".
And not a ceremonial funeral in sight.
"Do you see Cameron discovering reality regarding wealthy pensioners benefits anytime soon, or will he do what he did regarding child benefit before the last election and just lie? "
I'd make two points
1. I think it's really treading on dodgy ground to criticise overly that transition from opposition to government. Governments do have to face the true facts whereas in opposition they can (and in fact are forced to) guess.
2. Wealthy pensioners. It's daft to imagine that they bother to claim their entitlement. It's also daft to somehow label wealthy pensioners as unworthy - within their midst they are likely to have the people that have really made a difference over the last 50 years.
Actually I'll go on and make a further point
Tim - Labour are not infallible. They get stuff wrong. (In my view virtually everything, but I'd never say absolutely everything). Today EdM made some statements that can't be reconciled with what has gone before. That's good isn't it? Change?
@GdnPolitics: Ed Miliband benefactor admits donating shares to save on tax http://bit.ly/13e5uXN
NOTTINGHAM - WOLLATON WEST COUNCIL BY ELECTION (CONS DIED)
NOTTINGHAM - Wollaton West (Conservative died)
2011 - Con 2870/2646/2593, Lab 2018/1938/1753, LD 770/601/506
Aug 2008 by - Con 2769, Lab 1042, LD 424, UKIP 220
2007 - Con 2670/2408/2305, Lab 1169/1097/1013, LD 805/744/667, Grn 498, UKIP 483, Elvis 115
2003 - Con 2630/2563/2433, Lab 1197/1118/1087, LD 688/678/676
Steve BATTLEMUCH (The Labour Party Candidate)
David BISHOP (Militant Elvis Anti HS2)
Katharina BOETTGE (Green Party)
Chris CLARKE (UK Independence Party)
Barbara PEARCE (Liberal Democrat)
James SPENCER (The Conservative Party Candidate)
---------------------------------------
NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE - WALKERGATE COUNCIL BY ELECTION (LAB RESIGNED)
NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE - Walkergate (Labour resigned)
2012 - Lab 1912, LD 646, Con 149, CPGB 102
2011 - Lab 1682, LD 1580, Con 119
2010 - Lab 2009, LD 1706, Con 346, BNP 303
2008 - LD 1596, Lab 809, BNP 278, Con 195
2007 - LD 1752, Lab 1005, Con 153
2006 - LD 1770, Lab 1116, Con 155
Kevin BROWN (Liberal Democrats)
Martin COLLINS (Green Party)
Bobbie CRANNEY (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)
Davy HICKS (Independent)
Marian MCWILLIAMS (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Olga SHORTON (It's Time to Put Newcastle First)
Reg SIBLEY (Independent)
Lorraine SMITH (UK Independence Party)
Stephen WOOD (The Labour Party Candidate)
I'm finger pointing.
*the chocolate bar, not the dog.
I think the state pension is the only significant basis which people regularly describe themselves as *deserving* - "I've paid in under the impression I could retire at 65, which I deserve to be able to do", "after years of NI I deserve better than £110/week" etc.
(As I recall Beveridge talked of 'desert' but only due to being a human/British citizen/equally wide things, which equates to need.)
So your powerful ammunition consists of telling us that the wonderful machine that was the state in the 1970s has been rolled back?
"Interesting that, excluding pensions, contributory benefits have gone down from a peak of 21% of total benefit spend in 1971 to 5% in 2012.
Late 1970s: 80% of housing spend = housebuilding, 20% = housing benefit. Now: 5% of housing spend = housebuilding, 95% = housing benefit."
Where were you in the 70s? They were beyond awful. The UK was a laughing stock. If you really think things were better in the 70s (do you?) then you have no judgement at all.
spending my time as I do in the leafy suburbs such as Primrose Hill - that Valhalla of your creed - I actually get to meet the people who make the policies that you superglue your tongue to on a daily basis. I can assure you that they blow in the wind and leave you and your poor tongue trying to play catch up.
It'd be such a great game if only you'd make an effort to keep up! The 70s Tim! No, no, no! They were wrong. It must have been the wrong nanny state that got employed.. anyway we're now sure that even he best intentioned committee of the best intentioned wing of the best intentioned union got it totally wrong. Tony told us this after all.
I could go on.. and on.. still though I'd be less dull than you Tim.
You have my wishes
O
In homage to Prince Philip
It wasn't all bad. Cracking music too, and before AIDS and post-pill, the best time to be a teenager. Though for the benefit of TSE, the eighties were not bad either!
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
He also poses the question: how do we reduce HB? His answer (though not his party's answer) is to encourage LA to build more council houses. Mine would be to reduce dramtically nett immigration by quitting the EU and tightening control of borders.
A very important Q, to which the main parties are miles away from answering satisfactorily.
I remember it well, of course there were crap bits, but very much a curates egg. Some bits were excellent.
Yorkies were massive* in the 70s.
Edit: having googled (sad, I know) they were, in fact, at their chunkiest in 2002.
Our proposals to cut housing benefit and spend the savings on building new towns to house immigrant families at peppercorn rents have been broadly welcomed by the press, the people and academia.
We will now apply the same cost saving principles to the NHS, which currently costs the country over £100 bn per year.
When Labour return to government we will means test all pensioners seeking elective operations at NHS hospitals. This should reduce demand for free surgical interventions by over fifty per cent and enable us to replace a similar proportion of Doctors and Nurses with workfare placements for the long term unemployed.
All savings made will be invested in building new hospitals and in providing new build A&E complexes at high street locations in all cities.
"Pensioners seeking a hip replacement operation will no longer have to queue at A&E", claimed Labour leader, Ed Miliband, "We shall offer them a six month apprenticeship at the minimum wage on presentation".
I'l-Ave -Another Blancmange, Chief Economist of the IMF, claimed in an interview with Sky News's Ed Conway that "this is just the kind of stimulus that the UK economy needs to allow it to achieve escape velocity".
edit: I should add a question mark to that as i don't actually know but building sheltered housing in a warm country with lower average wages sounds like it might possibly be cheaper - especially with all that empty housing they have over there.
Bupa's Comprehensive 500 cover for a 70 year old costs £200 a month. That's £2400 a year. Multiply that by 800000 Brits in Spain, that's £1.9bn a year, a fraction of our membership fees of the EU.
And, of course, healthcare in Spain is far cheaper than what it costs in the UK.
In order to be covered by the Spanish NHS, a pensioner needs to register locally, and be a local taxpayer. The EHIC system is for emergency treatment of temporary visitors only, not for long term or planned care.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/libor-scandal/10102025/London-threatened-by-plans-to-move-Libor-regulation-to-Paris.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/10101317/France-demands-emergency-EU-summit-over-Chinas-wine-tax-threat.html
Perhaps we can agree to help them in exchange for them dropping their blocks on the US-EU deal?
http://www.esma.europa.eu/mb
That £200 for a 70 year old is rubbish.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDk0QUtnUTNmRmtKUWJGM1dwTjMxRFE#gid=0
This was almost certainly the only council area where the Conservative vote increased compared to the 2010 general election, I assume mainly due to differential turnout.
Changes since 2010 GE:
Con +1.74%
Lab +5.55%
UKIP +4.38%
LD -11.80%
Green +0.14%
Ind +3.78%
Others -3.78%
Stop being a snob.
The political impact is that recently Republicans have been allowing themselves to get riled up against Obama over civil liberties, which is great news for Rand Paul, and by extension Mike Smithson.
For Emergency cover the EHIC is not limited to just EU countries but includes places like Norway and Switzerland as well.
For any other medical cover that is dependent on the country not the nationality of the person being covered. So inside or outside the EU makes no difference. If you can't afford cover now when we are still members of the EU then you will not be able to afford it after we leave - and of course vice versa
One of the guides was explaining why there are so many Dutch paintings. Apparently the French aristos bought lots of Dutch paintings in the 17th century. Come the French revolution, the English (who by that stage were the rich men of Europe) were buying up the French collections with enthusiasm.
Clinton better get on the right side of this issue, particularly if she's facing Rand Paul. If not, it could be for her this time what the Iraq war vote was last time.
I'm completely serious that this could wreck Clinton's chances. Democrats I know are spitting blood over this, and quite rightly too.
Lab 1080
UKIP 668
LD 460
Ind 64
Newcastle First 61
Con 54
Green 30
TUSC 24
Ind 12
And since you pick Spain as a particular example your point is even more ridiculous because for all types of care Spain treats non EU nationals in the same way as EU nationals as long as they have permanent residence in the country.
If you actually bothered to read up about this stuff you would not have asked the question. Of course since the point of your comments was to try and sow doubt rather than understand how the system works you have no interest in actually knowing what you are talking about.
I'd have thought they were still working with specific phone numbers of suspects and seeing who they called, who the people they called called, etc. The difference between what everyone knew they were doing - "Court, please give us a warrant to see who called a Mr Terry Wrist" - and what they're actually doing - "Court, sod it, just make them give us all the data about everyone's calls" would be either:
1) They don't want to have to keep going back to the court every time.
2) They're actually doing this in real time, so they want to start by getting the right to see all the phone data in America.
PS. What's extra smelly about this is that they decided to do it in secret, at least until some heroic person leaked it. You can understand why you'd want to keep a court order about a specific person secret, but I can't think of any good reason not to tell the voters that you're doing it for everybody.
Of course the technology was very different, and they didn't have today's enormous computers to do the correlations for them, so it was rather hard. Maybe if they had had better tools, fewer innocent people would have died, although of course it does tend to be an arms race
On another point if you think the scandal of care homes going skint is bad, just wait until the shit hits the fan with private hospitals. One of the biggest groups owes £1.9 billion.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/opinion/president-obamas-dragnet.html?_r=0
And the Guardian broke the Wikileaks stuff as well, although they subsequently lost credibility in that area by breaking key principles of information security, like when you get given the passphrase to a secret archive so that you can help redact it, don't write the passphrase down in a place where other people could read it, such as the subheading to a chapter of a book you're getting published by Public Affairs.
But, yes, it is a statistical data-mining exercise. Not looking for terrorists necessarily, but looking for links and patterns which might give a clue to where to look.
Of course you can't conceivably get warrants for this kind of thing. You are tracking billions of connections and you have no idea in advance where they lead and which ones might prove to be interesting.
But since he wasn't actually interested in facts that will not matter to him.
In any case, it's not me who is arguing this. I think you'll find that, whenever there is a terrorist atrocity, the media and public want to know why the hell the intelligence services were caught unawares. Whether you like it or not, they have a very simple (and, for once, quite honest) answer: give us bigger computers and more data, and next time there's less chance of being caught unawares.
Now stop trying to squirm out of your utter failure and just admit you went off the deep end on something you know nothing about just to try and make a stupid political point and you got caught out.
For example a knee replacement is about £12,000 over here but around £7,000 in Spain. That's why Passport2Health have brought their policy to the market, there are other variations too.