Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Oh the joy of being a swing voter in one of the super margi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Oh the joy of being a swing voter in one of the super marginals that will decide the election
The above slide is from the Rob Hayward presentation and shows, on a uniform swing, the key tipping point seats. Column one is LAB to be on most seats, while the second column is the area for an overall LAB majority and the third for a CON majority.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Incidentally I wonder if UKIP fancy their chances in Swindon South, marginal, lots of white vans...
Vote for Dave and not for Ed or go for Nick for three in a bed.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/bbc-uses-ripa-terrorism-laws-to-catch-tv-licence-fee-dodgers-in-northern-ireland-30911647.html Doesnt inspire us to trust the government with further extensions to snooping powers. Giving them to MI5/6 is one thing, giving them to people like the BBC is scandalous.
Mind you, neither I nor my other half would be the easiest to deal with on the doorstep.
So your alleged anti-SNP bias must forever remain a mystery.......I see 'Scotland's leading Psephologist' (in his own head) has been taking pot shots at Scotland's leading Psephologist (in everybody else's head!) and you in his alternatingly comical and whiny bloglet - at least you are in excellent company!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2918711/Christian-faith-school-graded-best-performing-placed-special-measures-Ofsted-inspectors-does-not-promote-British-values.html Good schools with excellent grades being closed because of the throw away remarks of a few pupils, and yet we have madrassas where far more extreme views are being taught, never mind expressed, being left more or less alone.
Is a 10 yr old supposed to know what fisting is ? Sounds like Ofsted needs to be put into special measures. .
Ofsted do seem to be really gunning for Christian schools.
If lived a couple of miles away in Rother Valley the election would be more interesting.
The Durham school had quite extensive problems
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-30884169
Quango + Education + Lefty capture = guaranteeed effwittery. The real shocker is that a Tory Sec Ed seems to have decided that teacher votes are more imprtant than doing the right thing.
Con: Richard Fuller
Lab: Patrick Hall
LD: Mahmud Henry Rogers
UKIP: Charlie Smith
Greens: Ben Foley
Class War: Steve Watson
Justice for Men and Boys: Mike Buchanan
Class War policies: "double dole, double pension, double all other benefits, 50% mansion tax, abolish the monarchy, abolish all public schools"
http://www.classwarparty.org.uk/policies/
I hope Ofsted are gunning for poor schools, whatever their faith........
The thing that strikes me in today's YG is that the Greens are taking votes not from 2010 Labour but from 2010 LibDems, weakening the Red Liberal bonus for Labour. That's pretty logical - if you voted LD in 2010 because you wanted a left-wing party that wasn't Labour, the Greens fit the bill. The question is whether that will survive a tactical squeeze in marginal seats. My experience is that the small number of 2010 Greens are absolutely immovable, but the new tranche are pretty open to tactical argument.
On schools, there's a certain irony in the fact that Mail readers were dead keen on inculcating "British values" in schools, but are less pleased at the practical effects. British values, by general agreement in theory, include teaching tolerance and understanding of other faiths, which is not always a strongpoint on religious schools of any persuasion, so some Islamic schools but also some Christian schools are struggling. On the whole - without any knowledge of the specific cases - it seems to me a good thing that both are being challenged on this.
Con hold. (I hope)
I've always lived in safe seats, but I'm getting love bombed by the Lib Dems this year.
I'm probably showing my age now, but when I was ten, I didn't know what a lesbian was. I did manage to pass the eleven plus despite this enormous gap in my schooling.
It's the Daily Mail, so you can only hope they've exaggerated wildly.
I used to live next door to a couple of lesbians.
Lovely couple, they even gave me a Rolex watch.
I think they misunderstood me when I told them "I wanna watch"
I'm not sure a few opinion polls will make any difference to the broadcaster's view of the Greens, but I doubt Tory Central Office are happy about the Green surge.
Q: What's the similarity between lesbians and actuaries?
A: No one really knows exactly what they do.
Q: And what's the difference between lesbians and actuaries?
A: No one would pay to see an actuary do whatever it is that he does.
If religious schools are being run poorly then it is important that a crackdown is equal handed.
I do wonder if the same question about Lesbians is asked at Islamic Academies.
Mary Riddle in Telegraph is reporting that Ben Page of MORI thinks a 9% poll by Greens could cost Labour 17 key coalition seats they need to win.
I do wonder what morale is like in Ed's new election war room at the moment. They are being battered from all sides.
Today's 2010 LD split of Cons; 14; Lab: 24; LD: 27; UKIP:9, Green: 22 wil be interesting if it persists or even more switch to Green and is probably the main cause for the Con lead.
Whilst about 4% of 2010 LAB are moving Green, will Green start to rival UKIP as the repository for the protest vote, especially for the disgruntled Left of Centre?
So his Grandma, who’s good at that sort of thing, explained it to him. Don’t know what she said, exactly. Fortunately he’s a well-balanced, sensible lad and other than these rather unpleasant types from the year above has plenty of friends.
Incidentally, he’s at a (highly) selective school, not a comprehensive.
Quite sure I wouldn’t have known what it was at 11, either.
"it seems to me a good thing that both are being challenged on this."
Challenged on knowing other faiths and sexual practices. Perhaps questions on the ins and outs of lesbian relationships might be better directed at someone a little older?
Ten-year-olds are hardly a good benchmark for sensible answers in this area. "You're gay, you are," is quite common from kids in the playground, so I understand. So the worth of a school is dependemt on this sort of deep investigation?
Islam is definitely not compatible with British values of tolerance if those are the sort of questions to be asked.
And being challenged shouldn't mean being closed on the word of a ten-year-old. Unless you believe they should have the vote too?
Daily Mail reporting allowed for.
So it's possible that some of the people with a long record of supporting the Greens will be the 2005/2010 Green tactical voters who are open to voting tactically, whereas some of the recent converts will have the zeal of a new-found conviction.
There does seem to be a lot of voter churn, which means that there is everything to play for. Even the number of direct Lab/Con switching appears to be picking up slightly.
A disiac national with African origins!
Now we learn that the Red Liberals are not an immoveable block, but very open to tactical arguments, and of course, it is logical that they don't really want to vote Labour.
Nick: do you think that you may be presenting your hopes and desires rather than a more balanced view of the situation?
But the Chilcot inquiry delay looks like a piss-take. They stopped taking evidence in 2011 but no answers until late 2015. On that basis, the Casey Rotherham inquiry, rushed through by Eric Pickles and now completed, will be reporting in 2020.
Yup, that makes a lot of sense (for someone).
The black swan is the Greens - those to the left of Lab and sick of Nick have found a(nother) spiritual home with appropriately bonkers la-la land leftist policies.
As an interesting real life example of how the Greens are getting on when actually in govt this is quite interesting:
theargus.co.uk/news/11733593.Greens_will_oppose_any_cuts_to_services_in_Brighton_and_Hove/
V neat Cons strategy: keep EdM in place, promote the Greens.
Go Lynton!
London 8.5%
Rest of South 8.3%
Midlands/Wales 5.3%
North 7.3%
Scotland 3%
I've just done a very rough back-of-envelope whizz through Electoral Calculus seat predictor for top 30 or so Tory to Lab seat switches (as predicted). Bedford is roughly the point at which an additional 5% for the 'other' party column (a generous amount for this week's green surge) starts to cause havoc for Labour. This is assuming the Green votes will actually eat into the Tory-Lab difference rather than just reduce LD even further. Bedford is about 20th on the list.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30579609
Plenty of excitement (for obvious reasons) over last night's YouGov. Yesterday's ICM was quite interesting too - no surprise to see the Conservatives up and the LDs down from what looked like outlier numbers in December. We seem to have three blocks of voters out there - the Labour bloc and the Conservative bloc which oscillate around or above 30% (the Populus duopoly share continues to look high which may be based on how DKs are re-apportioned)and the "Third" bloc of around 30% aplit five or more ways.
The very low Labour and Conservative numbers (Conservatives at 30% barely three monts before an election and no one seems concerned !?) will still provide the duopoly with the overwhelming majority of the seats because the third party vote is so fragmented. Were there a single third party garnering 30% of the vote, the duopoly would be in a much worse position.
I've no view on the Greens except they seem to be this week's "protest" party and it's no surprise to see them picking them ex-LD votes which had previosly gone to Labour. Whether this will translate into much beyond 1-3 seats seems debatable but it probably helps the Conservatives more overall in terms of holding seats.
On topic and the thread bares witness to the travesty of our democracy and the ludicrous perpetuation of the notion of constituency (whatever that means). Yes, we all like it and we all want it (even though most people wouldn't recognise their MP if he or she walked up to them and slapped a custard pie in their face) but it negates democracy and devalues the votes of millions in my view.
That's my rant and I suppose I will enjoy the relative tranquillity of the election in East Ham where Labour canvassing teams prowl the streets much as the great dinosaurs once did. One might of course question the value of so many canvassers working East Ham while they could be working one of the many Con-Lab marginals in and around London but that's Labour's problem, not mine.
I'll post more tonight.
He has been on power 6 years doing very little and now he wants to remake America just as he becomes a lame duck.
If only the Republicans could provide a decent electable candidate. It makes you appreciate that The British Conservatives have got Cameron whilst Labour have Miliband.
http://conservativewoman.co.uk/chris-mcgovern-british-values-turn-nightmare-ofsted-driven-lessons-lesbianism/ This last bit is particular idiocy because "The 2010 Equality Act already prohibits discrimination in schools and elsewhere on the grounds of “religion, belief or lack of religion/belief” and on the grounds of “sex” or “sexual orientation”. Why, then, has the Education Secretary decided to go further? Protecting beliefs and orientations is something very different from promoting them in this coercive way."
http://conservativewoman.co.uk/chris-mcgovern-morgans-uber-pc-agenda-spells-trouble-will-tolerate-boko-haram/
For even more fun, why not a treble with Arundel & South Downs - might be some value there.
Was in the 5th year at school, and The Arsenal won the league losing only one match all season ... 2-1 at Chelsea, the only time I have been to the Bridge.
Happy days!
Holyrood magazine @HolyroodDaily · 42 mins 42 minutes ago
John Curtice: 45% won't win you a referendum, "but it will allow you to go walkies within a first past the post system."
Holyrood magazine @HolyroodDaily · 28 mins 28 minutes ago
Craig Harrow: Better Together were like a bride just thinking about wedding day, not rest of marriage. Yes meanwhile were planning honeymoon
Holyrood magazine @HolyroodDaily · 26 mins 26 minutes ago
Harrow: 'It is going to be a very, very difficult election for the Lib Dems, and I say that as Danny Alexander's election agent.'
Given that MPs - retaining Brighton Pavilion aside - are not expected, how best to judge the Green performance alongside national vote share? The objectives will be:
- Second places (after Brighton, the highest placed Green candidates were fourth in 2010).
- Winning more council seats (where there are council elections on the same day).
Saving deposits will be nice (the Greens* only saved seven deposits in 2010) but it's not nearly as important as the other two.
* Interestingly, the Commons Library Research Paper treats the Green Parties as one single UK Green Party.
Mr. F, I wonder if it's also partly down to women generally being nicer to people's faces than men [even if they can be bitchier behind others' backs].
If we had polling on the views of religious people generally regarding blasphemy censorship, then we could discover whether women are more sympathetic to Pope Censorius' views on inflicting blasphemy laws on non-believers because of their religious inclinations.
What do we mean by tolerance? I'd define it roughly as "accepting that people have an absolute right to have a different viewpoint without thereby becoming wicked or suitable subjects for persecution". In practice, that's probably best achieved by getting to an understanding of other points of view and how they arise.
The average Kipper and I have probably very little in common in terms of beliefs. You could say that I strongly disapprove of UKIP's policies. But I don't have any trouble accepting that a nice person might vote UKIP, I'd like to feel that I understood what led them to do it, and I strenuously object to any kind of maltreatment of UKIP supporters (such as ruling that their voting habits alone make them unsuitable to be adoptive parents). My understanding is that Richard Tyndall, for instance, feels much the same about lefties like me. That means that we essentially occupy the same democratic space and are very unlikely ever to come to blows in any sense.
It's important for civic cohesion that religious groups reach a similar position regarding each other, and IMO a proper requirement for schools that they promote it. That doesn't mean people have to think each others' beliefs sensible or desirable - merely that they tolerate them.The alternative is perpetual civil strife.
"Mrs Thatcher came only twice, once as prime minister. That was the occasion for a notable non-meeting of minds. Edward Norman (then Dean of Peterhouse) had attempted to mount a Christian argument for nuclear weapons. The discussion moved on to ‘Western values’. Mrs Thatcher said (in effect) that Norman had shown that the Bomb was necessary for the defence of our values. Powell: ‘No, we do not fight for values. I would fight for this country even if it had a communist government.’ Thatcher (it was just before the Argentinian invasion of the Falklands): ‘Nonsense, Enoch. If I send British troops abroad, it will be to defend our values.’ ‘No, Prime Minister, values exist in a transcendental realm, beyond space and time. They can neither be fought for, nor destroyed.’ Mrs Thatcher looked utterly baffled. She had just been presented with the difference between Toryism and American Republicanism. (Mr Blair would have been equally baffled.) "
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/28511/the-revival-of-tory-philosophy/
"I'd define it roughly as "accepting that people have an absolute right to have a different viewpoint without thereby becoming wicked or suitable subjects for persecution"."
Would you extend this view to, say, neo-Nazi believers in white supremacy?
BTW that's very very very NSFW.
For God's sake, they were directly teaching extremism in a bunch of schools in Birmingham, and they weren't even closed down. It's one rule for Muslims, and another one for everyone else.
My own comment is that this shows the ultimate failure of Blair and his Blairites to change Labour. They - the core socialists of the party - are irredeemably left wing CND-types who hate the notion of a capitalist (for want of a better word) economy and society. They are drifting to the Greens and SNP. The LDs are missing out because they are in government and anyway are busy trashing their own government and hence themselves.
Thatcher was right, Powell was wrong.
What sort of reality-distortion field are you mired in?
You know better than me, but I would suggest that their would be relatively little support among your constituents with 10 year old daughters for having school inspectors ask them about the details of lesbian sexuality. Could you say if similar questions are asked in Islamic Academies ?
Its not credible to go around saying the its inappropriate to publish cartoon pictures of the prophet because Muslims might find it offensive, and in the same breathe say its completely acceptable to promote homosexual sex to the primary school daughters of devout Christians, it looking like complete double standards.
Even on the broader point there is an obvious line between promotion and tolerance, and a subsidiary questions about age appropriateness, otherwise are we proposing to have speakers from the KKK welcome in schools to share their point of view? What about fundamentalist of various religions ?
If the proposal is promoting, as apposed to tolerating same sex relationships then the wrath of the world is going to descent on the government from various religions groups, who will feel they are having their faces rubbed in their beliefs.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01/20/george-galloway-charlie-hebdo-racist-islamophobic-hypocritical-rag-freedom-speech-rally_n_6506008.html?1421755217
I'm going to visit that site on my work laptop.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/osborne-hits-out-over-snp-balance-of-power-1-3666662
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics