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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Alex Massie right on Scottish Independence?

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    john_zims said:

    @Tim

    Can you remind us which idiots changed the GP's out of hours care?

    'The NHS is conducting a review of out-of-hours care which may lead to GPs again taking responsibility for looking after patients outside normal working hours.

    Controversial changes to GPs’ contracts made under Labour in 2004 allowed them to opt out of treating patients outside normal office hours. The review could see that policy reversed.'


    The GP doctors contract was changed so that they did not have to work unsocial hours and were paid more money.

    The reason given was that there was a shortage of GPs, especially in run down areas, and it was hard to recruit.

    This is probably the consequence of women now making up the majority of doctors newly qualifying. I suggest that women doctors are even less prepared than men to work unsocial hours and make home visits in run down areas.



    GP's could opt out of doing their own out of hours care long before that (1990) and it was largely due to early retirement rates among older male doctors.

    And given that the vast bulk of out of hours care is done by GP's the rest of your argument is irrelevant.
    The changing compostion of the workforce absolutely leads to changes in working practices.

    As a parallel, the US vet market is undergoing dramatic change because women now make up a majority of new qualified practioners. In particular, as a whole they have less interest in running their own practices, but would prefer to work for a corporate (e.g. Wal-Mart or Kroegers, or one of the vet chains) - they get a salary and regular hours vs. the equity ownership/upside but more work and risk.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "worklessness"

    Anyone speak wonkanese ?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 4m

    An 18-year old student from Sciences Po, #Paris has been left brain dead following attack by right-wing extremists http://bit.ly/13ceht2
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Regarding the withdrawal of free bus passes for rich OAPs, isn't the only "saving" the money generated by these OAPs then paying for public transport instead? If they never used it anyway how would any money be saved?

    ie hypothetically, the Queen might as well have a free bus pass as she is a million to use it anyway

    Apologies if I have overlooked something or misunderstood.

    IIRC, the 'free bus pass' is paid directly to the bus companies, so effectively it is a subsidy. Not sure how they will go through and identify which companies will receive reduced subsidies as a result of this policy change
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2013
    Taxpayer subsidised temporary jobs says rEd.

    He wants power devolved to local people to be led from the top of government.

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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @David_Evershed

    'The GP doctors contract was changed so that they did not have to work unsocial hours and were paid more money.'

    Typical Labour stupidity,pay people more for doing less.
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    Since the union is between England/Wales/NI and Scotland, why is the referendum about the union not being held in England/Wales/NI as well as Scotland.

    In my view there would an overwhelming vote for Scottish independence amongst the wider electorate.

    Only Scotland is asking to leave. It is not a referendum about kicking the Scots out of the UK.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2013
    Tory Treasury ‏@ToryTreasury 10m

    Breaking: George Osborne writes 2 @Ed_Miliband about Labour Party advising John Mills on how to avoid tax. Will Labour pass tax due to HMRC?

    Fraser Nelson ‏@frasernelson 2m
    If only Ed Miliband was this angry about worklessness when he was in a government that kept 4 MILLION on the dole at the peak of the boom.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Since the union is between England/Wales/NI and Scotland, why is the referendum about the union not being held in England/Wales/NI as well as Scotland."

    You guys have got to work out whether this referendum is about dissolving the union, or Scotland seceding from the UK. If it's the latter, then self-evidently it's nobody's business but Scotland's.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 4m

    An 18-year old student from Sciences Po, #Paris has been left brain dead following attack by right-wing extremists http://bit.ly/13ceht2

    Chuck 'em in the Oubliette with Adewalo and Adebalejo.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "That's a centrepiece of the next election"

    The next election will be fought on houses that won't be ready until 2022 ?

    That is very likely.

    Oh BBC get bored.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    tim said:

    @politicshomeuk: Ed Miliband says that the high cost of housing benefit is “the cost of our failure over decades to not building enough homes”.

    "Over decades" including the last labour govt,
    And contrast with the Tory housing benefit junkies.

    That's a centrepiece of the next election

    desperate times tim.

    Ed Muddledband can't build houses faster than he encourages more people into the country to fill them.


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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Patrick -

    "On Topic: The chart shows historical support for Scottish independence at about 1/3, never up to 50% and on a declining trend"

    It certainly isn't on a declining trend - most polls this year have shown an increase in support for independence. As for the 50% point, support for independence reached 50% in 1992 - and that was in a multi-option poll, which made it even more impressive.
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    The LibDems are likely beneficiaries of Miliband's new IDS-lite and Osborne-was-right positioning. And perhaps UKIP.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351

    Fluffy,"Only Scotland is asking to leave. It is not a referendum about kicking the Scots out of the UK."

    JK, "You guys have got to work out whether this referendum is about dissolving the union, or Scotland seceding from the UK. If it's the latter, then self-evidently it's nobody's business but Scotland's."

    So on that basis the USA should really be the Confederate States of America. I think the south were quite keen on the idea.

    NB I'm neutral and happy to leave it to Scotland but ...
    .
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'Ed Miliband says that the high cost of housing benefit is “the cost of our failure over decades to not building enough homes”.

    Is Ed going to apologize for the lowest social house building program since world war 2 during the period 1997 - 2010?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Wait - the CoTE can't comment on tax avoidance ?

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @FlashHarry - tim has had 24 hours to rehearse this ludicrous spin-line to justify Labour's about turn, but you can see his heart really isn't in it. He sees the raft of encouraging economic news that is only likely to get better over the next 2 years, and can see the inevitable outcome in 2015.

    Resistance is futile: he will be absorbed. We'll make a fop out of him yet.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited June 2013
    "Maybe it could have been different if the SNP had not been so pig-headed, evasive and petulant when people asked perfectly reasonable and serious questions about the currency, the EU and NATO."

    You're really going to have to learn the difference between the SNP failing to provide answers and you not liking the answers, Richard. They've spent God knows how long explaining the position on those topics over recent months. Where is the ambiguity on the NATO policy, for example? We stay in NATO unless it's impossible to do that without getting rid of Trident, in which case we leave NATO and apply for Partnership for Peace.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    tim said:

    @politicshomeuk: Ed Miliband says that the high cost of housing benefit is “the cost of our failure over decades to not building enough homes”.

    "Over decades" including the last labour govt,
    And contrast with the Tory housing benefit junkies.

    That's a centrepiece of the next election

    That part of your agenda may be going down well with the voters, but wait until Miliband gets to the bit about killing all the cats.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Regarding the withdrawal of free bus passes for rich OAPs, isn't the only "saving" the money generated by these OAPs then paying for public transport instead? If they never used it anyway how would any money be saved?

    ie hypothetically, the Queen might as well have a free bus pass as she is a million to use it anyway

    Apologies if I have overlooked something or misunderstood.

    IIRC, the 'free bus pass' is paid directly to the bus companies, so effectively it is a subsidy. Not sure how they will go through and identify which companies will receive reduced subsidies as a result of this policy change
    I thankyou!

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JohnO said:

    @FlashHarry - tim has had 24 hours to rehearse this ludicrous spin-line to justify Labour's about turn, but you can see his heart really isn't in it. He sees the raft of encouraging economic news that is only likely to get better over the next 2 years, and can see the inevitable outcome in 2015.

    Resistance is futile: he will be absorbed. We'll make a fop out of him yet.

    Even Owen Jones is bigging up the conversion to Osbornism on twitter.

    tim, Polly and Peter Hain are alone on a raft.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    So it's official. You can't spend your way out of poverty.

    Ed finally acknowledges that Labour's social welfare model has been tested to destruction and doesn't work.

    So what next ?
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "So on that basis the USA should really be the Confederate States of America"

    Explain?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Wait - Ukip seem to be sticking up for old new Labour

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timwigmore/100220520/rip-universalism-now-only-ukip-supports-it/

    "Liam Byrne's Today interview confirmed it: the welfare state as we know it is dead. With Labour's decision to reverse their earlier opposition to the removal of child benefit for highest earners, following on from Ed Balls' announcement that the wealthiest pensioners would lose their winter fuel allowance, we can now start digging the grave for universalism."

    "But one party who won't be asking it are Ukip, who remain committed to the principle of universality. "

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    Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited June 2013
    Ed Miliband just lost Labour the next election.

    All he had to do was avoid alienating left-wing Lib Dem switchers in Con-Lab marginals and they would have won the next election. Instead, he's defining themselves by Tory policy and the stories of their right-wing press cronies.

    It is impossible for Labour to win the next election on the right. It was the correct strategy in 1997, it is the wrong strategy in 2015.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Tim Shipman tweets: "It's a one nation solution,' says Ed. And somewhere at the back someone yells 'House!' After filling their cliche bingo card"
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @JamesKelly - It's not me you need to persuade. In any case, you've chosen the least bad of the three examples. The currency incompetence was just extraordinary, and the EU incompetence not far behind. The SNP really couldn't have done a better job of sowing doubt in voters' minds if they'd set out to do so.

    I expect there will be a replay on cross-border pensions, allowing the unionist side to scare people into thinking they'll lose their pensions if they vote Yes.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Housing wasn't even the centrepiece of rEd's speech - that was the G word

    http://order-order.com/2013/06/06/the-9-most-terrifying-words-in-miliband-speech/

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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "It's not me you need to persuade."

    That's certainly true. You could hardly be less typical of the people who will actually be making this decision.

    Do you want to know what the real scare story that will decide this referendum is? Ongoing Tory rule from London if we vote No. The difference is that scare story is real.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Oliver_PB said:

    Ed Miliband just lost Labour the next election.

    All he had to do was avoid alienating left-wing Lib Dem switchers in Con-Lab marginals and they would have won the next election. Instead, he's defining themselves by Tory policy and the stories of their right-wing press cronies.

    It is impossible for Labour to win the next election on the right. It was the correct strategy in 1997, it is the wrong strategy in 2015.

    EdM stays true to his father's sincere Marxism ;

    " Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others. "
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "It's not me you need to persuade."

    That's certainly true. You could hardly be less typical of the people who will actually be making this decision.

    Do you want to know what the real scare story that will decide this referendum is? Ongoing Tory rule from London if we vote No. The difference is that scare story is real.

    There were 410,000 voters in Scotland who would be quite happy with Tory rule from London as they know they are unlikely to get Tory rule from Holyrood
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Oliver_PB said:

    Ed Miliband just lost Labour the next election.

    All he had to do was avoid alienating left-wing Lib Dem switchers in Con-Lab marginals and they would have won the next election. Instead, he's defining themselves by Tory policy and the stories of their right-wing press cronies.

    It is impossible for Labour to win the next election on the right. It was the correct strategy in 1997, it is the wrong strategy in 2015.

    It will be interesting to see where the 2010 Lib Dems go now. If I recall correctly, the proportion switching to Labour had been in gentle decline in recent opinion polls. You would expect that the number saying Don't Know would increase.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "There were 410,000 voters in Scotland who would be quite happy with Tory rule from London as they know they are unlikely to get Tory rule from Holyrood"

    So you thought fourth place for the Tories was quite good, Charles?
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    CD13 said:


    Fluffy,"Only Scotland is asking to leave. It is not a referendum about kicking the Scots out of the UK."

    So on that basis the USA should really be the Confederate States of America. I think the south were quite keen on the idea.

    Despite her politics I see no reason why The Confederacy should not have been allowed to exist. It would have been a lot easier for the Mexicanos to [re-] colonise. Who knows, maybe the Canucks could have reclaimed New England as a result...?

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    I flicked on the speech briefly, but it was boring and I had other stuff to do so I turned it off.

    The Lib Dems and UKIP may see some improvements after this. A Lib Dem problem is that lost voters can now turn to UKIP instead of returning to the yellows.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446

    "There were 410,000 voters in Scotland who would be quite happy with Tory rule from London as they know they are unlikely to get Tory rule from Holyrood"

    So you thought fourth place for the Tories was quite good, Charles?

    The opinions of 410,000 people don't matter, James?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "There were 410,000 voters in Scotland who would be quite happy with Tory rule from London as they know they are unlikely to get Tory rule from Holyrood"

    So you thought fourth place for the Tories was quite good, Charles?

    No, I am saying that more than 400,000 votes shouldn't be dismissed as irrelevant. Don't forget the SNP only got about 80,000 more.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited June 2013
    Labour's scrupulously impartial voter survey in the Aberdeen Donside by-election -

    https://twitter.com/KAlmsivi/status/342588025919922177/photo/1

    My favourite - "Labour is campaigning to fix the Haudagain Roundabout. Do you agree?

    Options-

    Yes, and do it now!
    No, not before 2018"

    I do hope they identify the section of the electorate opposed to roundabout repairs and campaign accordingly.

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    JK,

    I was under the impression you were some variety of North American (apologies, if I'm incorrect), but I'm sure you remember that little incident between 1861 and 1865 better than I do. Jefferson Davis was the Braveheart of his day?

    Did you approve of the North's opposition? Just curious.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "No, I am saying that more than 400,000 votes shouldn't be dismissed as irrelevant"

    I trust you voted against FPTP, then. 400,000 votes proved to be very close to irrelevant for the Scottish Tories.
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    carlcarl Posts: 750
    Red u-turns

    Groan.

    It's only a u-turn if you think "Red" has switched from splurging unlimited welfare on everyone, to fully endorsing Osborne's assault on social security. Both of which are Tory caricatures that bear little resemblance to Labour's actual positions.

    What's actually happened is Miliband has fleshed out a position he's consistently held. It's the dreaded "predistribution" idea, without the baffling wonkspeak.

    Whether it's sensible or not is another matter. If it comes across as a welfare crackdown, Labour could have made an error, for reasons Oliver states below.

    If, on the other hand, it comes across as fresh thinking for social security in an era of austerity and an alternative to the bleak and blunt Tory approach, it could help secure their victory. We'll see.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @FlashHarry - tim has had 24 hours to rehearse this ludicrous spin-line to justify Labour's about turn, but you can see his heart really isn't in it. He sees the raft of encouraging economic news that is only likely to get better over the next 2 years, and can see the inevitable outcome in 2015.

    Resistance is futile: he will be absorbed. We'll make a fop out of him yet.

    You're a benefit junky John, addicted to paying Buy To let landlords increased rents from the taxpayer, addicted to the taxpayer subsidising their mortgages, addicted to paying Margaret Thatcher a winter fuel allowance while she lived in the Ritz.

    The PB Tories need to check in at the Priory to treat their benefit addiction.

    And your childcare policy is now reduced to provide ing Dave and Sam with a subsidised nanny.
    Oh dear, is that what you went into politics for, to subsidise wealthy subsidy junkies?
    New angry tim is scary - what u-turning event happened this week to make him so cross ?

    Also - what will we call Francois Hollande when he changes tack like rEd ?

    Philipe Felope.

    I'm here all week.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Interesting analysis of the Swedish riots:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8927011/why-sweden-has-riots/

    "So what’s to blame? The aspect of the Swedish social model that the government has not dared to touch: strong employment protection. By law, the last person to be hired must be the first person to be sacked. And if you employ someone longer than six months, the contract is automatically made permanent. A system intended to protect the workers has condemned the young to a succession of short-term contracts.

    Sweden’s high de facto minimum wage — around 70 per cent of the average wage — renders unemployed those whose skills are worth less than that. Sweden has the fewest low-wage, entry-level jobs in Europe. Just 2.5 per cent of Swedish jobs are on this level, compared to a European average of 17 per cent."
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "JK,

    I was under the impression you were some variety of North American (apologies, if I'm incorrect), but I'm sure you remember that little incident between 1861 and 1865 better than I do. Jefferson Davis was the Braveheart of his day?

    Did you approve of the North's opposition? Just curious."


    I have dual nationality but I've always lived in Scotland. I think people are guilty of muddled thinking on the American Civil War - opposition to slavery and racism is not identical to dismissing a people's right to self-determination, even though Lincoln embodied both.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "No, I am saying that more than 400,000 votes shouldn't be dismissed as irrelevant"

    I trust you voted against FPTP, then. 400,000 votes proved to be very close to irrelevant for the Scottish Tories.

    It resulted in few representatives in Parliament, which is fine.

    I would never even consider dismissing the views of political opponents as irrelevant. They may be (usually are) wrong, but every citizen has a right to be listened to.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited June 2013
    TGOHF said:

    New angry tim is scary - what u-turning event happened this week to make him so cross ?

    It's just a new one on the day shift. The one on the 4pm-midnight shift is more laid back.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    carl said:

    Red u-turns

    Groan.

    It's only a u-turn if you think "Red" has switched from splurging unlimited welfare on everyone, to fully endorsing Osborne's assault on social security. Both of which are Tory caricatures that bear little resemblance to Labour's actual positions.

    What's actually happened is Miliband has fleshed out a position he's consistently held. It's the dreaded "predistribution" idea, without the baffling wonkspeak.

    Whether it's sensible or not is another matter. If it comes across as a welfare crackdown, Labour could have made an error, for reasons Oliver states below.

    If, on the other hand, it comes across as fresh thinking for social security in an era of austerity and an alternative to the bleak and blunt Tory approach, it could help secure their victory. We'll see.

    Carl - there are a lot of quotes out there of the two Ed's against cutting CB for the wealthiest.

    If it quacks and waddles like a u-turn....
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "They may be (usually are) wrong, but every citizen has a right to be listened to."

    Were the vast majority of Scots who voted against the Tories listened to between 1979 and 1997?
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    carlcarl Posts: 750
    On topic, the pro-independence side are certainly making their case better than the Unionists.

    Whereas independence campaigners focus on the vital philosophical, existential arguments, Unionists too often focus on petty trivialities, will the queen still be on bank notes eh eh?, get out of THAT one Nats.

    That said, I expect a fairly narrow vote in favour of staying in the Union ultimately.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @FlashHarry - tim has had 24 hours to rehearse this ludicrous spin-line to justify Labour's about turn, but you can see his heart really isn't in it. He sees the raft of encouraging economic news that is only likely to get better over the next 2 years, and can see the inevitable outcome in 2015.

    Resistance is futile: he will be absorbed. We'll make a fop out of him yet.

    You're a benefit junky John, addicted to paying Buy To let landlords increased rents from the taxpayer, addicted to the taxpayer subsidising their mortgages, addicted to paying Margaret Thatcher a winter fuel allowance while she lived in the Ritz.

    The PB Tories need to check in at the Priory to treat their benefit addiction.

    And your childcare policy is now reduced to provide ing Dave and Sam with a subsidised nanny.
    Oh dear, is that what you went into politics for, to subsidise wealthy subsidy junkies?
    You're such a card, braveheart, if you add creme-egg junkie to that list of loveliness, I could not tell a lie.

    The pbTories will never resile from our sacred mission: to elicit cash infusion from your good self.

    And I see loadsamoney on the near horizon to satiate those manifold addictions. Roll on 2015!

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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited June 2013
    TGOHF said:

    New angry tim is scary - what u-turning event happened this week to make him so cross ?

    If ever there was evidence that Wee-Timmy was a party-shill then today's postings prove it. Banished, with low-viz, no-entry avatar, the "Lonely One" has been typing-away, like any troupe of monkies would, trying to be legiable to the world.

    Every message has been passed into the Labour Message-Queue; checked for signs of eligability, and prepared for posting. As soon as PBModerator reopened the gates a simple, single-threaded, application has been unleashed by the NEC allowing us to wallow in yesterday's reflections....

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "They may be (usually are) wrong, but every citizen has a right to be listened to."

    Were the vast majority of Scots who voted against the Tories listened to between 1979 and 1997?

    Their chosen representatives had the right to speak and vote in Parliament, so they were listened to.

    As to whether those representatives bothered to listen to their constituents, I have no idea.

    Being listened to is not synonomous with getting your own way
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351

    JK,

    Thanks for the reply.

    I'm happy for Scotland to vote on its own future. If I had a vote, I'd abstain anyway.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Hodges man-crush on Miliband continues:

    Ed Miliband: Labour moderniser

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100220554/ed-miliband-labour-moderniser/
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited June 2013
    carl said:

    On topic, the pro-independence side are certainly making their case better than the Unionists.

    Whereas independence campaigners focus on the vital philosophical, existential arguments,
    Unionists too often focus on petty trivialities, will the queen still be on bank notes eh eh?, get out of THAT one Nats.

    That said, I expect a fairly narrow vote in favour of staying in the Union ultimately.



    The Queen isn't on Scottish bank notes.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    According to the graph, isn't it true that the Yes campaign has never attracted more than 50% support (though it may have touched 50% in c.1998)?
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited June 2013
    "Their chosen representatives had the right to speak and vote in Parliament, so they were listened to...Being listened to is not synonomous with getting your own way"

    In other words the Tories were listening to Scotland by ignoring Scotland's views. Thanks for clearing that up, Charles.

    In that case, you can rest assured that I most certainly "listen" to the small minority of Scots who vote Tory.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Ed is getting into a terrible muddle on the Mills donation:

    Tim Shipman tweets: "Miliband says Labour will pay tax on Mills donations. But that isn't the point. Mills has avoided tax."
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "They may be (usually are) wrong, but every citizen has a right to be listened to."

    Were the vast majority of Scots who voted against the Tories listened to between 1979 and 1997?

    Were the vast majority of southerners who voted against Labour listened to between 1997 and 2010?

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    10 posts already tim and none on welfare u turns ?

    There s a speech later if you need to catch up on the new positions to take.

    I'd expect a few mor u turns yet.
    Labour is going to fight the next election on cutting welfare which is out of control due to high rents and low pay.
    Living wage and housebuilding policies will have huge public support, only people like you don't understand why Osborne is spending more on welfare.
    Keep it up tim, spinning the farcical meme that benefits are splurged on rent, rather than cheap fags and booze.

    I see REd is green lighting any future cuts that the Coalition wish to make.

    How many Labour supporters regret that the Unions chose the wrong Miliband now?

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    carlcarl Posts: 750

    carl said:

    On topic, the pro-independence side are certainly making their case better than the Unionists.

    Whereas independence campaigners focus on the vital philosophical, existential arguments,
    Unionists too often focus on petty trivialities, will the queen still be on bank notes eh eh?, get out of THAT one Nats.

    That said, I expect a fairly narrow vote in favour of staying in the Union ultimately.



    The Queen isn't on Scottish bank notes.

    Yes, dear, that was kind of the point.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2013

    "JK,

    I was under the impression you were some variety of North American (apologies, if I'm incorrect), but I'm sure you remember that little incident between 1861 and 1865 better than I do. Jefferson Davis was the Braveheart of his day?

    Did you approve of the North's opposition? Just curious."


    I have dual nationality but I've always lived in Scotland. I think people are guilty of muddled thinking on the American Civil War - opposition to slavery and racism is not identical to dismissing a people's right to self-determination, even though Lincoln embodied both.

    Hang on a minute. Places like South Carolina and Mississippi were majority black and unionist, yet they weren't listened to at all. And the Confederacy was plenty happy to try to conquer people that didn't want to be part of their separatist state, such as West Virginia and East Tennessee.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "According to the graph, isn't it true that the Yes campaign has never attracted more than 50% support (though it may have touched 50% in c.1998)?"

    How often does any political party attract more than 50% support? If pollsters persist in including likely abstainers in the calculation, then neither side actually needs more than 50% to win.
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    carlcarl Posts: 750
    edited June 2013

    Hodges man-crush on Miliband continues:

    Ed Miliband: Labour moderniser

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100220554/ed-miliband-labour-moderniser/

    Oh God. Labour are done for.

    Ed Miliband has not morphed into Tony Blair. We will not see him suddenly calling for a land invasion of Syria to neutralise Assad’s chemical weapons, or embracing post office privatisation – more’s the pity.

    Nurse!
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Places like South Carolina and Mississippi were majority black and unionist, yet they weren't listened to at all."

    Fine. They should have been. Self-determination means what it says.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Were the vast majority of southerners who voted against Labour listened to between 1997 and 2010?"

    Oh yes.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "Since the union is between England/Wales/NI and Scotland, why is the referendum about the union not being held in England/Wales/NI as well as Scotland."

    You guys have got to work out whether this referendum is about dissolving the union, or Scotland seceding from the UK. If it's the latter, then self-evidently it's nobody's business but Scotland's.

    Completely fair. Any devolution settlement within the union should be voted on by the whole union, but a secession referendum should only be voted on by those seceding.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hodges won't please ben and carl

    "The concept of universality that has underpinned the welfare state for over 60 years has gone for good.

    So too has Labour’s reliance on ever increasing public expenditure to achieve its progressive goals.

    And there is now a consensus that the post-war welfare settlement is no longer sustainable."
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    "Their chosen representatives had the right to speak and vote in Parliament, so they were listened to...Being listened to is not synonomous with getting your own way"
    In other words the Tories were listening to Scotland by ignoring Scotland's views. Thanks for clearing that up, Charles.

    So there is no point ever electing an Opposition MP because he, by definition, is in opposition?

    Fixing that is one of the plus points of dictatorship, I suppose.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "Their chosen representatives had the right to speak and vote in Parliament, so they were listened to...Being listened to is not synonomous with getting your own way"

    In other words the Tories were listening to Scotland by ignoring Scotland's views. Thanks for clearing that up, Charles.

    In that case, you can rest assured that I most certainly "listen" to the small minority of Scots who vote Tory.

    No, you are misrepresenting what I said.

    The Scottish voters chose a group of individuals to represent them in Parliament.

    Those individuals had the opportunity to participate in debates, committee meetings and to vote on various measures put to the House.

    That constitutes "being listened to".

    It has nothing to do with whether they were able to convince a majority of their fellow representatives from other parts of the country about a specific course of action.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Ed promises to pay tax on the Mills dividends:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdddUFFcNCk&feature=player_embedded

    But dodges the question (posed) on the tax-avoidance advice they gave their donor.....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Oborne on rEd's tax avoidance

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100220550/ed-miliband-needs-to-explain-why-there-is-one-rule-for-google-and-another-rule-for-labour/

    "Labour's arrangement with Mr Mills smacked of just such a technically but morally dubious tax dodge. Mr Mills in his candid interview makes completely clear that Labour knew and approved of his tax arrangements in advance.

    A Labour Party spokesman nevertheless asserts that "John Mills's tax affairs are a matter for him". This statement, which reeks of arrogance and double standards, makes no sense. John Mills's tax affairs are very much a matter for the Labour Party.


    We now await an explanation of why there is one rule for Eric Schmidt's Google and another rule for Ed Miliband's Labour."
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "So there is no point ever electing an Opposition MP because he, by definition, is in opposition?"

    In Scotland between 1979 and 1997, there was no point in voting anything other than Tory it seemed. 100% of Scots could have voted against them, and we'd still have woken up the next day without a Scottish Parliament, and with Malcolm Rifkind or Ian Lang as our colonial governor.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    carl said:

    carl said:

    On topic, the pro-independence side are certainly making their case better than the Unionists.

    Whereas independence campaigners focus on the vital philosophical, existential arguments,
    Unionists too often focus on petty trivialities, will the queen still be on bank notes eh eh?, get out of THAT one Nats.

    That said, I expect a fairly narrow vote in favour of staying in the Union ultimately.



    The Queen isn't on Scottish bank notes.

    Yes, dear, that was kind of the point.
    No it wasn't.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m

    Ed's going to have to give the Mills money back. Do it now, spare the row and the u-turn.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    @John)

    Given that you fought the last election prioritising the inheritance from wind farm subsidies and CAP payments that the Cameron's could receive it's hardly a surprise now that you're going into battle for Sir Reginald Sheffield's bus pass and Lady Astor's winter fuel payment.

    Comfort yourself with the thought of how much tax she's generated selling tasteful elephant lamps to a grateful nation.

    It's entrepreneurs like her that enable the State to pay whining doctors more, for doing less.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    Osborne .... is terminally addicted to increasing housing benefit.

    Tim you have made this point many many times. So in my early lunch break I wondered what are the facts? In real terms pricing (2013/14) the DWP stats March 2013 are as follows.
    http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd4/index.php?page=expenditure (click on Spread sheet Tables 1948 to.. and Table 1b).

    In the last Labour 5 year parliament 2004/5 to 2009/10 spending on Housing benefit went up by £5.6bn a 34% increase (5 yrs) at an average of £1.1bn increase every year.

    So far in the first 3 years of the coalition spending has risen by £2.6bn since 2009/10 a 14% (3yrs) increase at an average of £0.86bn increase every year.

    The Forecasts approved by the OBR are that by the next GE spending will have risen by 2.2bn since 2009/10 a 10% increase (5yrs) at an average of £0.4bn increase every year.

    So where is the evidence that Osborne is "terminally addicted to increasing housing benefit."?

    The evidence indicates that the Coalition has slowed the rate of growth and has approved forecasts that show a slight decline in real terms over the next two years.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Those individuals had the opportunity to participate in debates, committee meetings and to vote on various measures put to the House.

    That constitutes "being listened to"."


    No it doesn't. If 74% of a country votes for self-government in 1992, and self-government is denied, then the 74% were not listened to. They were ignored. In fact, let's call a spade a spade - your government, Charles, treated the people of this country with contempt.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    TGOHF said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 24m

    Ed's going to have to give the Mills money back. Do it now, spare the row and the u-turn.

    What does Margaret Hodge make of Mills' and Labour's tax arrangements ?

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2013
    In an interview with Scott Timberg for Salon, Lanier gives a potent example: Kodak used to have "140,000 really good middle-class employees. Instagram has 13 employees, period." He describes a winner-takes-all world, with a tiny number of successful people and everyone else living on hope. "There is not a middle-class hump. It's an all-or-nothing society."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/05/digital-economy-work-for-free

    Guardian journalist doesn't understand economics shock. If each company produces the same output with fewer employees, that just means that there will be more companies and more output, you silly bint.

    She then goes on to argue that, because some people now work for free for a few years to improve their future earnings, that means everyone one day will work for free. Why on Earth would anyone - let alone everyone - work for free if they didn't get any future earnings for the experience?

    Seriously, how do you get a job at a national newspaper without the slightest amount of logic? There are a few good journalists, but most of them seem to be idiots barely capable of rational thought.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    In Scotland between 1979 and 1997, there was no point in voting anything other than Tory it seemed

    You could say the same about Liverpool. Doesn't mean that a dictatorship is a good idea in my opinion. Your mileage appears to vary there, though.

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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "You could say the same about Liverpool. Doesn't mean that a dictatorship is a good idea in my opinion."

    Could you explain the relationship between the first sentence and the second? There doesn't appear to be one.
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    "So there is no point ever electing an Opposition MP because he, by definition, is in opposition?"

    In Scotland between 1979 and 1997, there was no point in voting anything other than Tory it seemed. 100% of Scots could have voted against them, and we'd still have woken up the next day without a Scottish Parliament, and with Malcolm Rifkind or Ian Lang as our colonial governor.

    That democracy thing is a bummer isn't it? Minorities / oppositions / regions always get frustrated because they can't control the democractic majority. If this is indeed intolerable to Scots you should get out.

    But what should centre right voters in Scotland then do? Maybe Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale should declare independence from their lefty Scottish masters who they didn't vote for.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited June 2013
    'Cameron and Osborne are determined to hold on to universal benefit payments for their wealthy parents'

    If ever a post reeks of desperation, that's the one.



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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "Those individuals had the opportunity to participate in debates, committee meetings and to vote on various measures put to the House.

    That constitutes "being listened to"."


    No it doesn't. If 74% of a country votes for self-government in 1992, and self-government is denied, then the 74% were not listened to. They were ignored. In fact, let's call a spade a spade - your government, Charles, treated the people of this country with contempt.

    I'm not sure what you are referring to when you say 74% voted for self-government (I don't recall there being a referendum).

    If you mean that 74% of Scottish votes were cast for parties other than the Tories, then I think you should be fairly happy that 85% of Scottish MPs after the election were non-Tories
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    What does Margaret Hodge make of Mills' and Labour's tax arrangements ?

    Making notes for her next bit of personal tax efficiency, I would guess.

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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited June 2013
    "That democracy thing is a bummer isn't it?"

    Is that why we weren't allowed to have it, Patrick? To give the Scottish Tories a chance to rule without having to win a majority?

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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I'm not sure what you are referring to when you say 74% voted for self-government (I don't recall there being a referendum)."

    74% voted for parties with a Scottish parliament in their manifesto.
    26% did not.

    Do you know why you can't recall a referendum, Charles? Because your government refused to hold one. No, they just carried on governing Scotland as if their lack of democratic legitimacy didn't matter.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Could you explain the relationship between the first sentence and the second? There doesn't appear to be one.

    See my previous comment:
    GeoffM said:


    So there is no point ever electing an Opposition MP because he, by definition, is in opposition? Fixing that is one of the plus points of dictatorship, I suppose.

    The only way to fix your angst is to have a one-party state where everyone is on the government benches.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    "That democracy thing is a bummer isn't it?"

    Is that why we weren't allowed to have it, Patrick? To give the Scottish Tories a chance to rule without having to win a majority?

    James - if you got a referendum every morning you'd be complaining there wasn't another one in the afternoon.

    By next September there will have been twice as many Indy ref's than those on the EU.

    And another Indy ref pencilled in for 2049



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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Ah, so you were talking gibberish, Geoff. Mystery solved.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "Were the vast majority of southerners who voted against Labour listened to between 1997 and 2010?"

    Oh yes.

    You're a complete hypocrite. South of the Severn-Wash line, the Tories had a huge majority, yet southerners had to put up with Labour governments. Every argument you make about Scots during Thatcher can be put right back to you about Southerners under Blair. Or, indeed, about Bavaria under Schroeder or New England under Bush or a hundred other examples in democracies around the world. You just have an acute sense of Scottish grievance, and can't accept that sometimes areas of a state get governments of the opposite stripe to the way they vote.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "I'm not sure what you are referring to when you say 74% voted for self-government (I don't recall there being a referendum)."

    74% voted for parties with a Scottish parliament in their manifesto.
    26% did not.

    Do you know why you can't recall a referendum, Charles? Because your government refused to hold one. No, they just carried on governing Scotland as if their lack of democratic legitimacy didn't matter.

    That's the rub about manifestos. 74% voted for parties that supported a Scottish Parliament. That's not exactly the same as saying 74% supported a Scottish Parliament - it could be more, or it could be less. Voting for a party is about balancing their various policies and selecting who you think is the best overall.

    It so happens that I disagree with the Tory Party's policy on Scotland. If you want to be independent, then good luck to you. It'll be a shame, but we'll survive without you. However, overall I think that the Tory's party's policy programme offers the best for the country as a whole, so I support them.

    Think about it like chosing a prix fixee menu, rather than a la carte.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "You're a complete hypocrite. South of the Severn-Wash line, the Tories had a huge majority, yet southerners had to put up with Labour governments. Every argument you make about Scots during Thatcher can be put right back to you about Southerners under Blair. Or, indeed, about Bavaria under Schroeder or New England under Bush or a hundred other examples in democracies around the world. You just have an acute sense of Scottish grievance, and can't accept that sometimes areas of a state get governments of the opposite stripe to the way they vote."

    You know what, Socrates? That would be a truly devastating argument if a) the people of southern England had been voting for self-government in the way that Scotland did between 1979 and 1997, and b) if you hadn't been responding to me merely making the point that the Labour government listened to the south.

    In fact, I'd put it rather more strongly than that - they were utterly obsessed with the south.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Daily Politics leading on the Labour donation - Jackie Smith making heavy weather of it - Neil also points out that as the company is private what dividends it declares will not be in the public domain.....'we will pay tax on these dividends - of course, you'd go to prison if you didn't.....

    ....basically its not alright for Google to follow the letter of the law to minimise tax, but its perfectly fine for Labour donors.....
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    Tim, I have used the March 2013 figures which presumably incorporate all the other figures you quote or are you saying that these March 2013 figures have omitted figures you quote from 2012? I somehow doubt that.

    The facts clearly are that the rate of increase in housing benefit has already slowed under the Coalition and the OBR approved forecasts now show a nett decline in real terms. Stating otherwise would be lying.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "That's the rub about manifestos. 74% voted for parties that supported a Scottish Parliament. That's not exactly the same as saying 74% supported a Scottish Parliament - it could be more, or it could be less. Voting for a party is about balancing their various policies and selecting who you think is the best overall."

    Hmmm. So what you're saying is that the Tory government should have put that to the test by holding a referendum. Pity they went down the colonial route instead.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Oops, I was wondering why there was so much chat about Scotland then I looked at the thread header.

    Apologies for my thought crime :-)
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Socrates said:

    "Were the vast majority of southerners who voted against Labour listened to between 1997 and 2010?"

    Oh yes.

    You're a complete hypocrite. South of the Severn-Wash line, the Tories had a huge majority, yet southerners had to put up with Labour governments. Every argument you make about Scots during Thatcher can be put right back to you about Southerners under Blair. Or, indeed, about Bavaria under Schroeder or New England under Bush or a hundred other examples in democracies around the world. You just have an acute sense of Scottish grievance, and can't accept that sometimes areas of a state get governments of the opposite stripe to the way they vote.
    I think we should be demanding freedom for all those poor glaswegian Labourites toiling under the yolk of Salmond's Holyrood. It's slavery I tell you, they didn't vote for him.
This discussion has been closed.