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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bet on the coalition of your choice with your money back if

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bet on the coalition of your choice with your money back if it’s a minority government

Betfair Sportsbook, the traditional bookmaker wing of the betting exchange, looks as though it is getting serious about the coming general election and has been putting some interesting markets up. One which several spotted was 4/9 on Nick Clegg retaining Sheffield Hallam which was far better than what was offered elsewhere. Sadly that’s gone but there are other interesting wagers.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    First ..... again!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    Second, damn you peter!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Betfair might be offering a money back deal in the event of a minority government but their odds are lousy and in some cases absolutely absurd. I mean 7/1 for a Con + Communist Green coalition (with the latter party unlikely to win more than one seat at best) ...... I mean I ask you!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Well there are only two viable options from that list and Con/LD is more likely than Lab/LD, so a decent risk free bet for those who think the coalition could continue. In all likelihood you'll be getting your stake back on May 10th.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    FPT: A few years ago T Garton Ash wrote rather a sneering and condescending article against Ayan Hirsi Ali. He (and Ian Buruma, who did much the same) got called out on it by Paul Berman in a withering response.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Con/LD at 2/1 and Lab/LD at 9/4? Party on.

    Seriously, unless there's a 3+ party coalition, it ain't going to be anything else.

    - The Greens won't have enough MPs to make a difference.
    - The SNP won't go into coalition with either party a year before Holyrood; there's far more in it for them to support on a vote-by-vote basis.
    - UKIP probably won't have enough MP's to make a difference and if they do, Labour will probably have a majority.
    - There won't be a Grand Coalition after just one inconclusive election and without a serious economic crisis.

    So the big risk is a majority government but that means either net Tory gains or a lot of net Labour gains, both of which aren't all that likely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    If Scotland is not looking as bad for Labour as before, they won't be needing any sort of Coalition I suspect, but agreed if one is needed they will be the prime movers there.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    RobD said:

    Second, damn you peter!

    You've got to be quick on your feet to beat this one Rob and no mistake!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    Even if the Greens win 2-3 seats ...... yes, where ...... I can't see a formal coalition.Anyway, Lab-Green must be more likely.

    Alternatively Greens taking over from Ed Davey?

    (Sounds of several regular PB-ers screaming.)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Mike, the over-round of those prices is horrible. Having a big push chance makes no difference to that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    O/T:

    Western Education Forbidden have abducted another 50 children, this time in Cameroon.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1410275/boko-haram-abducts-50-children-in-cameroon
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    david_herdson said:

    Con/LD at 2/1 and Lab/LD at 9/4? Party on.

    But Laddies are offering 4/1 and 13/2 respectively for these two bets. Betfair's odds are simply ridiculous.
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    OldKingCole said:

    Even if the Greens win 2-3 seats ...... yes, where ...... I can't see a formal coalition.Anyway, Lab-Green must be more likely.

    Alternatively Greens taking over from Ed Davey?

    (Sounds of several regular PB-ers screaming.)

    The Greens (at least the English/Welsh Greens anyhow) have stated pretty clearly that they will not go into coalition but would look at confidence & supply. Natalie Bennett repeated this again today: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30869461

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    The last time I checked, Betfair's odds for a Con/LD coalition were about 7/1.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Omnium said:

    Mike, the over-round of those prices is horrible. Having a big push chance makes no difference to that.

    Not once you take out the absurd. Con/Grn is closer to 7000/1 than 7/1.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    david_herdson said:

    Omnium said:

    Mike, the over-round of those prices is horrible. Having a big push chance makes no difference to that.

    Not once you take out the absurd. Con/Grn is closer to 7000/1 than 7/1.
    Well if you take that approach then their prices are great once you adjust them to the real odds, Just a mild disappointment that you've had to adjust all of them!



  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    Steven_Whaley said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Even if the Greens win 2-3 seats ...... yes, where ...... I can't see a formal coalition.Anyway, Lab-Green must be more likely.

    Alternatively Greens taking over from Ed Davey?

    (Sounds of several regular PB-ers screaming.)

    The Greens (at least the English/Welsh Greens anyhow) have stated pretty clearly that they will not go into coalition but would look at confidence & supply. Natalie Bennett repeated this again today: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30869461

    Unusually sensible.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Omnium said:

    david_herdson said:

    Omnium said:

    Mike, the over-round of those prices is horrible. Having a big push chance makes no difference to that.

    Not once you take out the absurd. Con/Grn is closer to 7000/1 than 7/1.
    Well if you take that approach then their prices are great once you adjust them to the real odds, Just a mild disappointment that you've had to adjust all of them!

    I disagree. I think there's value in both the Con/LD and Lab/LD bets, which have implied combined odds of about 4/7. This, remember, is in a market where a minority government is effectively excluded.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    david_herdson said:

    Con/LD at 2/1 and Lab/LD at 9/4? Party on.

    Seriously, unless there's a 3+ party coalition, it ain't going to be anything else.

    - The Greens won't have enough MPs to make a difference.
    - The SNP won't go into coalition with either party a year before Holyrood; there's far more in it for them to support on a vote-by-vote basis.
    - UKIP probably won't have enough MP's to make a difference and if they do, Labour will probably have a majority.
    - There won't be a Grand Coalition after just one inconclusive election and without a serious economic crisis.

    So the big risk is a majority government but that means either net Tory gains or a lot of net Labour gains, both of which aren't all that likely.

    If the wording Mike has quoted is correct, a majority government would void the bet too.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    FPT
    Stonch - for this to be a possible goer, I think it first needs OGH's endorsement and agreement on where it should be held and in what format.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    david_herdson said:

    Omnium said:

    david_herdson said:

    Omnium said:

    Mike, the over-round of those prices is horrible. Having a big push chance makes no difference to that.

    Not once you take out the absurd. Con/Grn is closer to 7000/1 than 7/1.
    Well if you take that approach then their prices are great once you adjust them to the real odds, Just a mild disappointment that you've had to adjust all of them!

    I disagree. I think there's value in both the Con/LD and Lab/LD bets, which have implied combined odds of about 4/7. This, remember, is in a market where a minority government is effectively excluded.
    Ok - so at the offered odds which bets have you made?

    I'm not for one moment suggesting that it was Mike's intent, but there is a danger that his headline post may mislead people into thinking that betting on these prices may get you free money.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    A nice market, but I prefer the 10.0 I took on Lib-Lab coalition on the exchange :)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Steven_Whaley said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Even if the Greens win 2-3 seats ...... yes, where ...... I can't see a formal coalition.Anyway, Lab-Green must be more likely.

    Alternatively Greens taking over from Ed Davey?

    (Sounds of several regular PB-ers screaming.)

    The Greens (at least the English/Welsh Greens anyhow) have stated pretty clearly that they will not go into coalition but would look at confidence & supply. Natalie Bennett repeated this again today: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30869461

    So, Caroline Lucas will not become a Minister - nice of her !
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Omnium said:

    david_herdson said:

    Omnium said:

    david_herdson said:

    Omnium said:

    Mike, the over-round of those prices is horrible. Having a big push chance makes no difference to that.

    Not once you take out the absurd. Con/Grn is closer to 7000/1 than 7/1.
    Well if you take that approach then their prices are great once you adjust them to the real odds, Just a mild disappointment that you've had to adjust all of them!

    I disagree. I think there's value in both the Con/LD and Lab/LD bets, which have implied combined odds of about 4/7. This, remember, is in a market where a minority government is effectively excluded.
    Ok - so at the offered odds which bets have you made?

    I'm not for one moment suggesting that it was Mike's intent, but there is a danger that his headline post may mislead people into thinking that betting on these prices may get you free money.

    I haven't - I'm refraining from all betting at the moment - but would happily take the Lab/LD odds as first choice.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Douglas Murray bang on the money. Again:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9416542/religion-of-peace-is-not-a-harmless-platitude/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Rod Liddle on why everyone says they're Charlie, but almost no-one is:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/everyone-says-theyre-charlie-in-britain-almost-no-one-is/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Good evening, everyone.

    Not sure I've heard of/seen the Sportsbook before. No F1 markets up yet. I might see what they put up when the season gets going.

    Ladbrokes still has its early specials up.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2015
    Test
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    edited January 2015
    Mr. Putney, nice for Leeds to win something.

    Edited extra bit: and now this looks silly because you changed your post!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Incidentally, I'm onto the appendices (there are eight) of The Perfect King (Edward III biography) by Ian Mortimer. Not one for the casual reader, but a very interesting read, especially for modern history.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    On topic, I'm not sure these are brilliant odds. You can get 9/1 on a Lab-LD coalition on Betfair exchange and 7/1 (if you're prepared to wait to be matched) on a Con-LD coalition.

    Given David's analysis, which I agree with, either of those seem more attractive to me.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Casino_Royale said:

    Douglas Murray bang on the money. Again:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9416542/religion-of-peace-is-not-a-harmless-platitude/

    I agree: Douglas Murray bang on the money; Again and again and again and again and again and again.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    O/T
    Leeds United player wins the Fallon d'Floor for 2014's best dive

    http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/leeds-united-player-wins-the-fallon-dfloor-for-2014s-best-dive--x1raZGVaqg

    (Scroll down to arrowed video clip)
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2015
    Deleted
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    MikeK said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Douglas Murray bang on the money. Again:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9416542/religion-of-peace-is-not-a-harmless-platitude/

    I agree: Douglas Murray bang on the money; Again and again and again and again and again and again.
    He is.

    Still, good to see the Spectator repeating what many learned posters here have said about Cameron's banning encryption rubbish.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9416402/david-cameron-has-a-very-strange-idea-of-freedom/

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    david_herdson said:

    Omnium said:

    david_herdson said:

    Omnium said:

    david_herdson said:

    Omnium said:

    Mike, the over-round of those prices is horrible. Having a big push chance makes no difference to that.

    Not once you take out the absurd. Con/Grn is closer to 7000/1 than 7/1.
    Well if you take that approach then their prices are great once you adjust them to the real odds, Just a mild disappointment that you've had to adjust all of them!

    I disagree. I think there's value in both the Con/LD and Lab/LD bets, which have implied combined odds of about 4/7. This, remember, is in a market where a minority government is effectively excluded.
    Ok - so at the offered odds which bets have you made?

    I'm not for one moment suggesting that it was Mike's intent, but there is a danger that his headline post may mislead people into thinking that betting on these prices may get you free money.

    I haven't - I'm refraining from all betting at the moment - but would happily take the Lab/LD odds as first choice.
    Fair enough, and if pressed there's a bet that I'd have first - I don't think that any of them are good bets though.

    You know though that my point wasn't about whether any of the prices were competitive, but rather whether they were collectively so.
  • numbercrunchernumbercruncher Posts: 136
    Re Scotland, my latest chart update:

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/556922143452450816
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Cruncher, cheers for that graph.

    Whilst less dramatic, it's worth noting both the Lib Dems and Conservatives have seen a permanent decline, beginning at the same time Scottish Labour fell sharply and the SNP enjoyed a substantial rise in support.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Casino_Royale said:

    Rod Liddle on why everyone says they're Charlie, but almost no-one is:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/everyone-says-theyre-charlie-in-britain-almost-no-one-is/

    That's an excellent article.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,683
    Completely OT and not a dig at the Americans. I reckon you would get the same response or there abouts of you asked the same question in this country unfortunately.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/01/17/over-80-percent-of-americans-support-mandatory-labels-on-foods-containing-dna/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    This week's ELBOW in graphical form:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882506084282368

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Labour leads since August 2014

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    The LibDem v. Green contest in ELBOW since September 2014

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556884375057739776
  • numbercrunchernumbercruncher Posts: 136
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Cruncher, cheers for that graph.

    Whilst less dramatic, it's worth noting both the Lib Dems and Conservatives have seen a permanent decline, beginning at the same time Scottish Labour fell sharply and the SNP enjoyed a substantial rise in support.

    Yes, it looks like some of the SNP's new support is from the coalition parties as well...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Not sure I've heard of/seen the Sportsbook before. No F1 markets up yet. I might see what they put up when the season gets going.

    Ladbrokes still has its early specials up.

    Currently my position is -5 ham, +10 ros, +2 everyone else for 2015 md (adjusted to make stakes in the units).

    The world and his wife seem to like Hamilton. Can he really be 53% (1.895) chance to win, versus Rosberg's 23% (4.35)?

    Unless Hamilton dominates throughout then we're likely to see some wicked moves in the market.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Omnium, whilst Rosberg is better value, I've backed both him and Hamilton. I think being red on a Hamilton title is a little brave.

    Also, even when Rosberg had his largest lead in 2014, Hamilton was barely over evens. Unless Rosberg amasses such a lead he ends up taking the title, I don't think the opportunity to hedge will present itself.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Just in case anyone has forgotten; EdM not only didn't fix the roof while the sun was shining during his time as Gordon's No.2, he managed to burn a hole in the floor as well. Then he tried to cover it with a Muslim prayer mat.

    @JackW might have told you about Ed Miliband
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Just in case anyone has forgotten; EdM not only didn't fix the roof while the sun was shining during his time as Gordon's No.2, he managed to burn a hole in the floor as well. Then he tried to cover it with a Muslim prayer mat.

    @JackW might have told you about Ed Miliband

    EICIPM in less than 16 weeks IMO
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Just in case anyone has forgotten; EdM not only didn't fix the roof while the sun was shining during his time as Gordon's No.2, he managed to burn a hole in the floor as well. Then he tried to cover it with a Muslim prayer mat.

    Well I hope he ends up blossoming in the role of No.1 then, otherwise we are in some trouble.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Owls, Honorius was a Roman emperor. That didn't make him competent.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Cyclefree said:

    MikeK said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Douglas Murray bang on the money. Again:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9416542/religion-of-peace-is-not-a-harmless-platitude/

    I agree: Douglas Murray bang on the money; Again and again and again and again and again and again.
    He is.

    Still, good to see the Spectator repeating what many learned posters here have said about Cameron's banning encryption rubbish.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9416402/david-cameron-has-a-very-strange-idea-of-freedom/

    This week's issue has been outstanding.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    edited January 2015
    Casino_Royale said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MikeK said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Douglas Murray bang on the money. Again:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9416542/religion-of-peace-is-not-a-harmless-platitude/

    I agree: Douglas Murray bang on the money; Again and again and again and again and again and again.
    He is.

    Still, good to see the Spectator repeating what many learned posters here have said about Cameron's banning encryption rubbish.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9416402/david-cameron-has-a-very-strange-idea-of-freedom/

    This week's issue has been outstanding.
    Those are certainly three very good articles, all on the money.

    The response of the UK press, government, and politicians in general to the events in France and Belgium has been disappointing. Cameron in particular is demonstrating what a ignorant and hypocritical berk he can be at times. The only thing I can say in Cameron's favour is that Farage, Clegg, and Miliband would make even worse PMs. None of them deserve the job.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Well, quite, Mr. glw.

    Only going to be above freezing for about five hours tomorrow. Still, at least winter, so far, hasn't been like one of those arctic ones we had a few years ago.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    It's rather quiet. Are pbers hibernating?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    FPT
    Flightpath said:

    » show previous quotes
    You have no link to rationality at all with your self righteous comments. The health of people in Glasgow is appalling. Alcohol related deaths in central Scotland are appalling. One in three Scottish teenagers is binge drinking by the age of 13.
    But lets not worry - Scotland cares.

    Cuckoo, Cuckoo , seen any spaceships. Tory halfwits like yourself should be thinking more of Rotherham and hanging your head in shame, thousands of children raped you stupid plankton.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Morris_Dancer said:

    It's rather quiet. Are pbers hibernating?

    Spoken in haste, Malcolm is back!
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    AndyJS said:

    The last time I checked, Betfair's odds for a Con/LD coalition were about 7/1.

    Perhaps all the eager punters should take this into account (as pointed out on TV today)

    (a) In a LD/Tory coalition the LDs would be the ones saying 'we are pushing for less cuts, nicer cuts'. We have seen it quite clearly. A cosy typical LD place to be.
    (b) In a LD/Lab coalition the LDs would be the ones saying 'we are the ones responsible for more cuts, harsher cuts'. Is this going to make them popular? Is it something they would look forward to being labeled with?

    Indeed if people think that voting LD to put them into a coalition with Labour which would make them indistinguishable from Labour if (b) were to be ignored - then why, from whichever wing you view politics, why vote LD?

    If there is one party going onto the election peddling a pack of economic lies, its Labour. Good luck to the LDs in chaining themselves to the consequences of that.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited January 2015
    nigel4england said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    It's rather quiet. Are pbers hibernating?

    Spoken in haste, Malcolm is back!
    Why would anyone want to read the repetitive drivel spewed out by Malcolmg. Someone give him his comfort blanket back as he is behaving like a spoilt child.

    and on that note, I have a book to read

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    NEW Survation @Daily_Record Scotland Westminster '15: SNP 46%-2 LAB 26%+2 CON 14%-2 LD 7%+2 UKIP 4% (nc) AP 3% Tabs: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Scottish-Attitudes-Jan.pdf …
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    SquareRoot said:

    nigel4england said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    It's rather quiet. Are pbers hibernating?

    Spoken in haste, Malcolm is back!
    Why would anyone want to read the repetitive drivel spewed out by Malcolmg. Someone give him his comfort blanket back as he is behaving like a spoilt child.

    and on that note, I have a book to read

    I didn't say it like it was a good thing! To be honest I have been banned several times for not much at all while others like Malcolm continue to insult all and sundry with little consequence, so I'm not too thrilled when he is on here.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Sleazy broken Scottish Nats on the slide

    @Survation: NEW Survation @Daily_Record Scotland Westminster '15: SNP 46%-2 LAB 26%+2 CON 14%-2 LD 7%+2 UKIP 4% (nc) AP 3% Tabs: http://t.co/ewVyFuU7PW
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    @Survation: NEW Holyrood LIST (change vs Dec) SNP 39% -1 LAB 23% -1 CON 14% (NC) GRE 10% +1 LD 7% +1 UKIP 6% -1 AP 1% (NC) Tabs: http://t.co/ewVyFuU7PW
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    So we've two polls in 24 hours seeing the Nat lead slashed by seven and four percent.

    Jim Murphy da man.

    If you haven't backed him already back him as next Lab leader.

    If he stops Lab getting pounded like a Dockside Hooker in North Britain and Ed doesn't win in May then Lab might go for Jim Murphy.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So we've two polls in 24 hours seeing the Nat lead slashed by seven and four percent.

    Jim Murphy da man.

    If you haven't backed him already back him as next Lab leader.

    If he stops Lab getting pounded like a Dockside Hooker in North Britain and Ed doesn't win in May then Lab might go for Jim Murphy.

    After Brown I'm Not sure the English will take to a Scot being leader of the party, might make Labour even more unelectable, though of course that is a good thing.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    SNP lead may be down by 4 but that's still a great poll for SNP and a terrible poll for Lab.

    And therefore also a great poll for Con.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A 20 point lead for the SNP in new poll:

    Survation/Daily Record, Westminster:

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 26% (+2)
    Con 14% (-2)
    L Dem 7% (+2)
    UKIP 4% (nc)
    Green 3%
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    That would result in 46 SNP, 11 Labour, 2 Lib Dems, under UNS.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So we've two polls in 24 hours seeing the Nat lead slashed by seven and four percent.

    Jim Murphy da man.

    If you haven't backed him already back him as next Lab leader.

    If he stops Lab getting pounded like a Dockside Hooker in North Britain and Ed doesn't win in May then Lab might go for Jim Murphy.

    I'm on Murphy as next PM after dave @ 250/1

    It's a throwaway longshot, but I can see a few ways it could happen.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So we've two polls in 24 hours seeing the Nat lead slashed by seven and four percent.

    Jim Murphy da man.

    If you haven't backed him already back him as next Lab leader.

    If he stops Lab getting pounded like a Dockside Hooker in North Britain and Ed doesn't win in May then Lab might go for Jim Murphy.

    If Jim Murphy ran for parliament this May he would probably lose his seat.
    That and being 20 points behind the SNP with only a marginal improvement for Labour probably because of the oil price slide.

    Nick Clegg has better chances than Murphy.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Adrian Ramsay of the Greens explains the Green surge, from a Green perspective of course:

    http://bright-green.org/green-movement/how-the-green-party-changed-itself-to-make-the-greensurge-possible/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    Tissue_Price said:

    NEW Survation @Daily_Record Scotland Westminster '15: SNP 46%-2 LAB 26%+2 CON 14%-2 LD 7%+2 UKIP 4% (nc) AP 3% Tabs: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Scottish-Attitudes-Jan.pdf …

    Interesting - not as good as the Panelbase poll, but the same direction, reinforcing Mike's comment.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Politics seems soulless without a social vision and a transcending moral standpoint. In truth, it is not so much that the party leaders are afraid to engage in argument; it is that they have no arguments, or, at least, none that are worthy enough to pursue. And that is what the country already suspects.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11352494/Of-course-the-TV-debates-are-risky-thats-the-whole-point.html
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    A Touch of Reality

    Is it not time to inject a touch of reality into this debate about Scottish political trends?

    The Survation poll in the DAILY RECORD renders ridiculous Mike's theory that the SNP are on the decline. This is a 20 per cent lead, an over 20 per cent swing, the fourth best poll in the history of the SNP Party, better than ICM, better than YouGov better than today's Panelbase.

    I understand , of course, that many on this site would rather the SNP were not on the cusp of a political sensation in Scottish politics but to refuse to acknowledge that a poll which would give them 46 seats to Labour's 11 in Scotland just over three months from an election is anything other than amazing for the SNP makes sensible debate very difficult.

    I know I am fairly new to all of this but one of the attractions of this site is that on most subjects the debate is of a high standard. However, when it comes to Scotland many find it difficult even to acknowledge the very obvious. That I think is more of a problem for the site than it is for the SNP or indeed Scotland.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So we've two polls in 24 hours seeing the Nat lead slashed by seven and four percent.

    Jim Murphy da man.

    If you haven't backed him already back him as next Lab leader.

    If he stops Lab getting pounded like a Dockside Hooker in North Britain and Ed doesn't win in May then Lab might go for Jim Murphy.

    If Jim Murphy ran for parliament this May he would probably lose his seat.
    That and being 20 points behind the SNP with only a marginal improvement for Labour probably because of the oil price slide.

    Nick Clegg has better chances than Murphy.
    If Labour won only 9 seats in Scotland, Jim will still win. Currently, his seat 1/3 with Ladbrokes.

    Put some money on him !!

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/renfrewshire-east/winning-party
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    scotslass said:

    A Touch of Reality

    Is it not time to inject a touch of reality into this debate about Scottish political trends?

    The Survation poll in the DAILY RECORD renders ridiculous Mike's theory that the SNP are on the decline. This is a 20 per cent lead, an over 20 per cent swing, the fourth best poll in the history of the SNP Party, better than ICM, better than YouGov better than today's Panelbase.

    I understand , of course, that many on this site would rather the SNP were not on the cusp of a political sensation in Scottish politics but to refuse to acknowledge that a poll which would give them 46 seats to Labour's 11 in Scotland just over three months from an election is anything other than amazing for the SNP makes sensible debate very difficult.

    I know I am fairly new to all of this but one of the attractions of this site is that on most subjects the debate is of a high standard. However, when it comes to Scotland many find it difficult even to acknowledge the very obvious. That I think is more of a problem for the site than it is for the SNP or indeed Scotland.

    This may be the fourth best poll ever, but if the third, second, and first were immediately prior, this probably can be described as a 'decline'.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    scotslass said:

    A Touch of Reality

    Is it not time to inject a touch of reality into this debate about Scottish political trends?

    The Survation poll in the DAILY RECORD renders ridiculous Mike's theory that the SNP are on the decline. This is a 20 per cent lead, an over 20 per cent swing, the fourth best poll in the history of the SNP Party, better than ICM, better than YouGov better than today's Panelbase.

    I understand , of course, that many on this site would rather the SNP were not on the cusp of a political sensation in Scottish politics but to refuse to acknowledge that a poll which would give them 46 seats to Labour's 11 in Scotland just over three months

    Statistically, with UNS, you are correct ! But punters are refusing to follow your logic. Right now, the SNP is favourite to win in only 21 seats. Are the punters throwing their money away ?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited January 2015
    Twitter
    STV News ‏@STVNews now1 minute ago
    Employment and starting salaries 'grow' amid economic recovery http://bit.ly/1BQGAB8

    Toby Young ‏@toadmeister 4m4 minutes ago Ealing, London
    Bit rich of Archbishop of York to attack free schools cos they attract "people with means". Change word "free" to "faith" and he has a point
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Lord Kennedy @LordRoyKennedy · 3h 3 hours ago
    Ed Balls in talks with broadcasters over televised election debate with George Osborne http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ed-balls-in-talks-with-broadcasters-over-televised-election-debate-with-george-osborne-9983410.html …
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    John Rentoul in Indy Blogs - Tory party more favourably regarded than Labour

    "More people feel favourable towards the Conservative Party than to Labour according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Despite the common view that voters prefer the Labour brand to the Tory one if the qualities of leaders is left to one side, 29 per cent say they are favourable to the Tories, but only 26 per cent say Labour."
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Rob D

    Your rather making my point for me. This 20 per cent lead is better than today's Panelbase (10 per cent), ICM's 17 per cent recorded 16-18th December (17 per cent) and the same as YouGov's 20 per cent (9-11th December). That accounts for three out of the last four!

    Also the Record website is reporting that the Scottish election figures show the SNP with a 50 per cent to 24 per cent lead! When did a UK party last record 50 per cent the highs of early Bairism perhaps?

    As for the individual seat betting. I am already well up on Sporting Index from a wager before Christmas. I now intend to invest in a range of individual seats which are the equivalent of the Scottish Paliament seats that SNP took from Labour in 2011.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2015
    scotslass said:

    I know I am fairly new to all of this but one of the attractions of this site is that on most subjects the debate is of a high standard. However, when it comes to Scotland many find it difficult even to acknowledge the very obvious. That I think is more of a problem for the site than it is for the SNP or indeed Scotland.

    Would you consider the contribution of Nationalist posters to be of a uniformly 'high standard'?

    Perhaps you missed the run-up to the referendum, but those of us who wrote that the Nats might not prevail were routinely denounced as unionist lickspittles (at best!) who 'didn't understand Scotland" and that 'we'd heard it all before'. You know how that turned out.

    I would submit one of the features of this site is the difficulty some Nationalist posters have in dealing with polling evidence, when it contradicts the group think of the Nationalist echo chamber.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    fitalass said:

    John Rentoul in Indy Blogs - Tory party more favourably regarded than Labour

    "More people feel favourable towards the Conservative Party than to Labour according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Despite the common view that voters prefer the Labour brand to the Tory one if the qualities of leaders is left to one side, 29 per cent say they are favourable to the Tories, but only 26 per cent say Labour."

    Rentoul is just s**t ! A miserable and hapless Blairite, like Dan Hodges. Their dream of power went with David Miliband.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Things can change very quickly in Scotland, in March 2011 according to the polls Labour were on average 6% ahead of the SNP, by polling day in May they were 13% behind. We also saw the ups and downs in the independence polling and a late swing towards Labour in 2010 that wasn't really picked up.

    Whether it's people in Scotland making their minds up late on, pollster inaccuracy or a bit of both, Scottish polls don't have the stability or past record of accuracy to be taken as anything other than a general feeling of the direction of travel.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    John Rentoul in Indy Blogs - Tory party more favourably regarded than Labour

    "More people feel favourable towards the Conservative Party than to Labour according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Despite the common view that voters prefer the Labour brand to the Tory one if the qualities of leaders is left to one side, 29 per cent say they are favourable to the Tories, but only 26 per cent say Labour."

    Rentoul is just s**t ! A miserable and hapless Blairite, like Dan Hodges. Their dream of power went with David Miliband.
    So if Miliband loses you think the Labour will continue it's odyssey to the left ? Or will the Blairites be back in the driving seat again ?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    @Artist you are bang on the money with the very valid points you highlighted in your post.
    Artist said:

    Things can change very quickly in Scotland, in March 2011 according to the polls Labour were on average 6% ahead of the SNP, by polling day in May they were 13% behind. We also saw the ups and downs in the independence polling and a late swing towards Labour in 2010 that wasn't really picked up.

    Whether it's people in Scotland making their minds up late on, pollster inaccuracy or a bit of both, Scottish polls don't have the stability or past record of accuracy to be taken as anything other than a general feeling of the direction of travel.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11353914/Jean-Claude-Juncker-compares-British-membership-of-EU-to-doomed-romance.html
    Jean-Claude Juncker has compared British membership of the EU to a doomed romance and suggested it is time for Britain to get a divorce from Europe.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Other factors that may impact on SNP polling over the next couple of weeks include the Scottish NHS A&E numbers for Oct-Dec which are published early Feb - last time they showed Scotland lagging behind performance in England. Then there's the continuing oil price issue, with the SNP refusing to publish it's own estimates of the impact on any DEVOMAX settlement.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    John Rentoul in Indy Blogs - Tory party more favourably regarded than Labour

    "More people feel favourable towards the Conservative Party than to Labour according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Despite the common view that voters prefer the Labour brand to the Tory one if the qualities of leaders is left to one side, 29 per cent say they are favourable to the Tories, but only 26 per cent say Labour."

    Rentoul is just s**t ! A miserable and hapless Blairite, like Dan Hodges. Their dream of power went with David Miliband.
    So if Miliband loses you think the Labour will continue it's odyssey to the left ? Or will the Blairites be back in the driving seat again ?
    Blairites are really Tories !
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915902/I-won-t-tell-tax-pay-says-PM-Cameron-quietly-ditches-plan-release-details-ahead-Election.html

    More whoppers... No ifs, No buts
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andy Murray is on court for his first round match in the Australian Open.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2015
    Indigo said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915902/I-won-t-tell-tax-pay-says-PM-Cameron-quietly-ditches-plan-release-details-ahead-Election.html

    More whoppers... No ifs, No buts

    You mean implying he said "no ifs, no buts" about tax returns?

    When he said he was "quite relaxed about"?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Hollande approval rating hits 34% - 8% higher than Sarkozy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    surbiton said:

    Hollande approval rating hits 34% - 8% higher than Sarkozy.

    surbiton said:

    Hollande approval rating hits 34% - 8% higher than Sarkozy.

    Thomas Guénolé, a politics expert at Sciences-Po in Paris, told France Info: "When Hollande is dressed up as a war chief, battling against a violent threat, his popularity soars. Le Hollande-bashing is over."

    Prime minister Manuel Valls also saw a nine per cent rise in popularity to 44 per cent, while interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve's score was up 14 points at 33 per cent.

    See more at: http://www.connexionfrance.com/hollande-popularity-opinion-polls-up-paris-attack-16559-view-article.html#sthash.czBmEBeN.dpuf
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    CarlottaVance said:

    Indigo said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915902/I-won-t-tell-tax-pay-says-PM-Cameron-quietly-ditches-plan-release-details-ahead-Election.html

    More whoppers... No ifs, No buts

    You mean implying he said "no ifs, no buts" about tax returns?

    When he said he was "quite relaxed about"?
    Meaning his record of promising things he has no intention, or in some cases even capability to deliver continues unabated.

  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Have to confess that I have stayed up to watch the Andy Murray game since I have no work tomorrow and my own feelings on the referendum were very close to Andy's famous tweets!

    Can I make this point to Artist. The SNP are 20 points or so ahead with 3 months to go. They were 20 points ahead three months ago. Yes a lot can happen in politics but we have never been in this position before. At the very least we should acknowledge that as things stand just now these are spectacular ratings for the SNP.

    To Carlotta. I think you are wrong on the impact of oil for reasons which were well set out in an excellent article in The Observer yesterday from Kevin McKenna. However, I know that you are wrong on the Health Service as a result of a work related project I have been dealing with. The Christmas and New Year A&E figures for Scotland were indeed released for major units. They did not hit target but were almost 10 per cent better than the English equivalent and 15 per cent better than the Welsh figures.

    You may have to look elsewhere for reasons for the SNP fall from grace. In the meantime I will be placing my constituency wagers.
This discussion has been closed.