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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on Ed Miliband’s million lost voters – which could hur
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on Ed Miliband’s million lost voters – which could hurt Labour most
This the the first general election where new additions to the electoral register have to sign up individually rather than doing it on a household or other form of block basis.
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http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/16/britains-1m-missing-voters
"Voters whose details could not be transferred automatically need to re-register. There has been a drive to get more people registered in recent months.
Those who have fallen off the electoral roll have until 20 April to register in order to be able to vote in the 7 May general election.
But it’s important to note that voters on the register before the transition will stay on the December 2014 register and will not lose their vote at the 2015 general election, even if records have not been confirmed. But an unconfirmed voter will drop off the register if a new application is not made by December 2015."
I notice that Sky are doing Ed a favour and running a big push on getting young people signed up to vote.
I'd imagine these people who've fallen off the register are mostly non EXISTENT anyway tbh.
A handful of Knife edge seats like Lincoln and Southampton Itchen could be decided by the student vote/non-vote though.
In just four years we’ve stood up for Britain in Europe and delivered real change by:
- Cutting the EU budget for the first time in its history
- Vetoing a new EU fiscal treaty that didn’t guarantee a level playing field for British businesses
- Taking Britain out of the Eurozone bailouts
1) Governments cave into EU 'shutdown' threat over spending increase
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10397885/Governments-cave-into-EU-shutdown-threat-over-spending-increase.html
The European Union has voted through £2.3 billion in new cash contributions from national treasuries in an emergency decision that takes the cost of Brussels overspends and shortfalls to over £12bn this year.
2) Lib Dems praise David Cameron for EU U-turn
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/jan/31/lib-dems-david-cameron-eu
Senior Liberal Democrats have lined up to praise David Cameron after the prime minister bowed to pressure from Nick Clegg and abandoned attempts to block eurozone leaders from enforcing a new fiscal compact through EU institutions.
3) UK faces added £1billion bill to bail out Greece and save crisis-hit euro
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2104059/Greece-bailout-UK-faces-added-1bn-save-crisis-hit-euro.html
British taxpayers funded Ireland's £14bn bail-out
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9813358/British-taxpayers-funded-Irelands-14bn-bail-out.html
Britain faces a £3bn bill to save Portugal in another EU bailout
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1369390/Portugal-bailout-cost-UK-3bn-PM-Joe-Socrates-resigns.html
On a more serious note, I presume this new individual scheme doesn't stop multi-voting that was possible under the old scheme whereby the likes of students could get registered at parents address and uni, and in theory place two votes.
So in 2005 you (like me and the party as a whole) learned the lessons of 2001 and 2005. The difference between us is that you seemed to have forgotten them all over again. Or, more likely, over the last ten years you have gravitated steadily and remorselessly to the right as is evident in your postings. That is entirely your prerogative and now you feel rather more at home in UKIP (whose leadership is ideologically essentially the Monday Club of yore).
Of course I'd rather you stayed and argued your case within: we remain a broad coalition. But you have made your choice to leave and hence don't ask or expect the rest of us (yes, TSE, Scrapheap, Richard N, Fitalass and several others on this Board to abandon mainstream Conservativism and join you on the fringe.
Try getting a bank account like that, and for a good reason you can't.
And obviously, photo ID doesn't stop all voter fraud, and there is the issue of postal voting. But it seems bonkers that even before all of this, you have never had to produce anything to prove you are who you say you are, when in every other walk of life you got to provide valid forms of ID.
" THE OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE UK ARE SUBSIDISED BY ENGLAND
Scotland
Agree: 18%
Disagree: 65%
Net agreement: -47
rUK
Agree: 51%
Disagree: 18%
Net agreement: 33
Scotland/rUK gap: 80 points "
See, for example: http://lifehacker.com/five-best-external-battery-packs-509802431 [18 months out of date now, but gives you an idea of options]
Labour % leads in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since mid-August 2014
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556145724988354560
IMO, it is not a valid not to have that kind of check when you go to vote. Lots of other countries do.
Scotland depends on the oil price most likely.
Northern Ireland is too I'd guess.
An annoying thing about the registration programme is that the details are being applied differently in different areas. A friend in a Tory marginal Ealing has lived there for 30 years but has been told he needs to re-register - he's not really into politics so says he probably won't bother (ironically he voted Tory last time). Someone who has just moved to Broxtowe tells me he had great difficulty in satisfying them that he'd really moved - he was told he had to take utility bills etc. to the town hall to prove it, even though he's signed up for council tax. As I understand it, the legislation doesn't specify those levels of difficulty, so it's just local officials being awkward, but it's easy to see how people can be put off.
I see little evidence of fraud committed at polling stations but I can see how erecting barriers to voting might disenfranchise some. You seem to be trying to fix a problem that doesnt really exist.
Why? Because you aren't ready to listen. Loyalist Conservatives are still working through the seven stages of grief. You're more interested in emoting your anger that UKIP exists. That it's had enough success in stealing 'your' voters such that it now threatens your chances of winning this year's election.
So, anyone else that leaves to join them merely stokes the fires of your anger still further, and that rage is directed at them instead. The splitters. Of course, it makes it even easier to deal with if you demonise the party they're defecting to, as well as the defectors themselves.
You've now badged me as a UKIP defector, and that's the end of it. You aren't really considering what I have to say as an individual. So it's pointless debating with you. All I will say is that you're absolutely wrong in what you write: I have not moved "remorselessly" to the right over the last 10 years, I have not forgotten any lessons, and what finally triggered my defection was Cameron's surrender to Merkel over immigration reform despite promising to "get what Britain needs". He promised "no ifs, no buts" that immigration would fall to the tens of thousands. I remember his contract: "kick us out in five year's time if we don't deliver":
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/files/ge_4pg-newspaper.pdf
Well, he hasn't. So I can't support him. He's just not serious on either immigration or EU reform.
If stereotyping and misrepresentation makes it easier for you to deal with my defection, then so be it. But there's an election coming up in less than 4 months time, and this is your chance to win it.
Posts like this blow it. You were never this rude to me on pb.com when you perceived me to be a Conservative. Nor were you so when we met at Dirty Dicks before Christmas.
I hope you will later on be as embarrassed to read this post back to yourself, as I am for you that you wrote it.
Labour leader's speech at Sheffield Hallam University reveals plan to defeat Liberal Democrats in Nick Clegg's backyard"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11351103/Ed-Miliband-backs-plan-to-decapitate-Nick-Clegg-in-his-own-constituency.html
However, I wouldn't disagree that postal fraud is likely to be an easier way of committing fraud, and I am totally against for instance the way in which if you request a postal ballot once you just keep getting them.
What it shows is how pernicious the subsidy junkie myth is south of the border. That - and the general attitude currently shown on PB by too many posters - is one reason I don't believe the Union will hold.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/dividing-lines/#more-65598
Interesting question from Nick on the last thread about charging laptops on long flights. I've often wondered about that problem.
The Euro is falling but I think that the Swiss have inflicted more damage on themeselves.
Amazing
Makes me proud to be a UK taxpayer.
Meanwhile, Labour are shown as having lost 16 seats, down from 297 to 281 and the LibDems are down 3 from 29 to 26 seats. Overall, therefore, "others" which include the SNP are shown as having increased from 30 seats just one week ago to 60 now such are the wonders, ha-ha of so-called modelling!
The upshot is that Elections now have the Tories as narrowly winning the most seats with 283 against Labour's 281, but with Ed Miliband far more likely to become the next Prime Minister with the support of other left-leaning parties.
A hung Parliament is shown as being a 79% probability.
In truth I'm staggered at your hyper-sensitivity and the rapidity and extent with which you take personal affront. If your voting choice is going to be determined by a hardly robust expression of disagreement on an internet forum, well, what can I say?
And you HAVE defected. I dislike UKIP and most of what it stands for. It is not somehow my centre-right cousin and can we all be friends again someday. It may be to some, but not to me. I am a creature of the slightly pinkish centre right. Always have in 40 years of Tory activism, always will be. Naturally, I would like to win back many of its current supporters who are currently using it as a NOTA protest vehicle but the idea of winning back the likes of Fararge or Neil Hamilton or the dominant Monday Club tendency is one I personally will have no truck.
Me too.
The article seems to say that the money was brought forward from Q4 to Q3; and spent mostly on the Humanitarian crisis in Syria, the Phillipines typhoon and the fight against AIDS and Malaria.
Excellent causes; each and everyone!
Balls is off talking down the UK apparently..so what's new
Yep. Happy to see some of my taxes spent on TB and malaria prevention and other aid brought forward.
Losing Hamilton, Helmer, Reckless etc has improved the party further as far as I am concerned.
The "I'm not voting Conservative because I think an anonymous voice on the internet might have been rude to me" is frankly bizarre.
Iain Dale has virtually completed his 650 seat predictions. I admire him having the courage to put his money where his mouth is unlike most of the so-called experts including many on here. Interesting to compare individual seat predictions with Ashcroft seat polls.
I'm neither a Conservative nor Kipper [despite repeatedly being confused for them...], but can see why reconciliation may be difficult. Blues view those who move as traitors who'll risk a Labour victory. Purples view the blues as moving the party away from what it should be, and themselves as continuators [horrible word but I'm pushed for time] of Conservative traditions.
If the purples opt for a basically socialist/leftwing approach to economics it'll be interesting to see how ex-Cons behave.
Do voters really change their votes because the Prime Minister (or Leader of the Opposition) has met the American President?
And assuming talking Britain down means anything, isn't it the Opposition's job to say that HMG is a shower of incompetents?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/poll-of-the-pollsters-labour-by-a-whisker-the-polling-firms-place-their-bets-for-may-9955994.html
The article seems to say that the money was brought forward from Q4 to Q3; and spent mostly on the Humanitarian crisis in Syria, the Phillipines typhoon and the fight against AIDS and Malaria.
Excellent causes; each and everyone!
I agree 100%.
Bet you weren't expecting that!
The problem here is respect. This is why you're losing votes and not getting them back. Around half, to two-thirds, of Tory>UKIP defectors might not have been lost IMHO if the Conservative Party showed even a modicum of respect towards its ex-voters, members and activists, rather than a snide attitude of "good riddance". Indeed, it might even win most of them back if it changed its tune. Even at this late stage.
That's without changing a *single* Conservative policy. It's this lunacy of triangulation to be purposefully rude to the right as they had "nowhere else to go", to attract the centre-left, that I've always disagreed with. It risked losing the right when an alternative turned up, without winning any decisive number from the centre who'd never be convinced of the motives of a centre-right party. For some, that was at the heart of the modernisation project.
I've always agreed with rebalancing the message to environmentalism, housing, public services reform and work/life balance and the big society. I thought Cameron understood this, and that the problem the Conservatives had was that they were perceived to stand for the wealthy and rich, rather than the man on the street.
I have never moved away from that.
You have chosen not to show respect. You have accused me of moving steadily and remorselessly to the right; I have not, my position has remained consistent. You have accused me of failing to learn the lessons of modernisation; I have not.
You have insinuated a connection between me and the "Monday Club", which is both false and offensive. My wife is an EU national, and I am in favour of immigration, albeit controlled and limited.
If I react personally, it's because you've made it so. The Conservative Party was mine for over 15 years too, and I feel as strongly about it as you do.
Not a word in any of your posts have acknowledged Cameron's own failings on his pledges, or his leadership. If you had done so, perhaps we might have been able to have a constructive conversation.
I'm afraid I have better things to do with my Friday evening that debate with someone that feels they will have no truck with me. So I will bid you a good evening.
http://www.newrepublic.com/blog/plank/110597/exclusive-the-polls-made-mitt-romney-think-hed-win
If it's true, then it might explain the curious phenomenon which we noticed on the night of the US election - someone kept backing Romney on Intrade (but not on Betfair) long after it became pretty obvious he'd lose by a fair margin.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/dividing-lines/comment-page-1/#comment-1951349
Expect similar on or just after Valentines day when most voters realise an election is imminent and start looking closely at who is leading Labour. St Valentines Day Swingback Massacre....
More likely the money went into the pockets of corrupt politicians like Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan, who smiles while his people get slaughtered by Boko Haram
I love the spinning of the time in weeks rather than months a la BBC even "just 8 weeks" .....
Well done for us not turning our back on the world & and big ploppy pants to the naysayers & of course the inward looking parts of kipperdom.
#Grown up debate on friday#
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416473
Both LAB/CON available at 2.00
01 Sheffield Central - 38.1% of constituency students
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%
11 Bristol West - 24.3%
12= Portsmouth South - 24.2%
12= Coventry South - 24.2%
14 Canterbury - 24%
15 Birmingham Ladywood - 23.3%
16 Bath - 22.4%
17 Birmingham Selly Oak - 22.2%
18 Lancaster & Fleetwood - 21.7%
19 Nottingham East - 21.2%
20 Loughborough - 20.8%
21 Holborn & St Pancras - 20.6%
22 City of Durham - 20.5%
23 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport -20.2%
24 Manchester Withington - 20.1%
http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/VERY-FINAL-CLEAN-PDF.pdf
I also hope Anna Soubry and Douglas Alexander lose their seats.
It isn't part of the government's remit to promote a feeling of contented benevolence in the well-heeled middle classes. Most taxpayers are, frankly, rather poor and would rather not have the decision made for them that money they could otherwise spend on themselves and their families should be given away.
I am sure from the tenor of your posts, and those of others, that if the aid budget were cut much of the slack would be taken up by additional charitable giving from those who can comfortably afford it.
The same things appeal to me as they did five years ago. I'm 'not voting Conservative' because of David Cameron's failure to provide leadership and honour his pledges.
But perhaps this concept is too difficult a concept for you to understand.
'Whenever I think of returning to cast a begrudging vote for the Conservatives in the election this year, it's posts like yours, TheWatcher, TGOHF and TSE that remind me why I left in the first place. '
But the above doesn't seem to be happening any more? I didn't receive any such form last autumn.
Surely this means the register will be massively overstated? Anyone who has moved or died since Autumn 2013 will still be on the register - unless a proactive step has been taken to contact the Council.
Will they be reintroducing the annual check - albeit that in future it should be done individually, not via head of household?
Teenager arrested after visit to Syria?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2913734/Teenage-girl-18-arrested-Stansted-Airport-suspicion-terror-offences.html
James Willmott-Brown @_Milne_ 53s53 seconds ago
"Very unsavoury scenes here at Ibrox" - nae sausage rolls.
I did sometimes acquire their operations,usually a distress sale,but no way would the disloyal benefit.
Carswell et al are out.
However, Conservative members and supporters act as advocates for their party. They presumably wish others to vote for it, particularly with a general election approaching. How they behave is entirely up to them, but what I'm trying to point out is that, if they wish to win back defectors through reasoned argument, they are going about in an entirely counter-productive way.
I'd rapidly approaching the conclusion that actually they don't, and aren't interested in winning defectors back. That'd be fine, if I wasn't equally convinced they would shout betrayal and act in utter bafflement as to why they lost following an election defeat in May.
I'm trying to be helpful and point it out now.
Nice guy, but to put it in context, he thought he'd win Norfolk North in 2005.
He lost by over 10,000 votes.
Now, that is up to them, of course, and I don't expect one political party to be nice about another one. But - and it's a big but - the entire UKIP strategy (if that's not too strong a word) is based on a fantasy whereby there is a Labour government, Cameron gets ditched in favour of someone else, and then we all get back together and defeat Labour next time round.
It is, frankly, bonkers. Even if you ignore the fact that it requires everything to fall in place in a neat pattern which ignores the messy realities, it also ignores the fact that the two parties will have been squabbling and tearing chunks out of each other. The chance of playing happy families again is negligible.
Labour will be laughing all the way to the ballot box, and for several elections in a row.