politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ashcroft 20k sample mega-poll highlights the massive challenge facing the Tories on the NHS
How important do you think the NHS is to the parties and leaders? pic.twitter.com/BCwUh9zN3g
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As the ComRes polling shows, the voters prefer Dave on the NHS to Ed.
And as someone said to me yesterday, Labour have timed this badly, you're not going to have a winter NHS crisis in April and May.
Those with preventable (smoking/drinking/obesity) problems should have lower priority vs everyone should get same treatment:
Con: 57/43
Lab: 38/62
LibD: 51/49
UKIP: 52/48
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/The-People-the-Parties-and-the-NHS-LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS.pdf
9% for "Protecting the Environment" does rather suggest the real limit to the Green's expectations.
The most interesting thing we can draw from this is that Dave and Tories are ahead in the polls and have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Being called frit/chickens is a mere flesh wound in the grand scheme of things.
I think most voters would be concerned if the UK was heading towards the EU exit door, as it could damage the UK economy. The Toriees referendum in 2017 is really to do with the split on the right side of politics about the one issue they have been moaning about for the last 40 years.
http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/ef575e8837d065a1683c022d2077d342.html
(not paywalled)
There is a clear lead for spending more on public services even if it means either increasing borrowing or (especially) not having tax cuts. This is not in fact Labour policy (though Danny here argues that it should be), so it shows the public is on the left of Labour in this area (maybe that's why the Greens are doing relatively well). If the Tories decide to campaign on "Sorry about the NHS, but we need to cut spending for the economy's sake", they will sink like a stone.
If Cameron avoided the leaders debates, it could do real damage to how the public see Cameron/Tories. They might not vote for someone considered a coward.
It has nothing to do with people's real experience and all the anxiety is based on hysterically negative press coverage.
Did it damage Blair when he chickened out of a debate in 1997?
Remember how we were assured that without any doubt whatsoever Cameron would absolutely, definitely, certainly positively debate Salmond.
And if he didn't everyone would laugh at him until the end of time?
@DPJHodges: Cameron needs to be careful. His decision to duck debates could have the same disastrous impact as Tony Blair's decision to duck debates...
I have always thought they played the NHS card too early, but I guess it's the only card they had. The tories still have time to close down the issue and then what have labour got?
Re the letters from the 3 pretenders today each trying to get a debate, it's just the next turn in the haggling. Nothing more than that.
@matthancockmp: Even more Labour chaos as they U-Turn on the only policy anyone's heard of. The melting price freeze: http://t.co/idTmvRjNsc
Perhaps its a warm up for the rainbow coalition of left wing state control anti business parties that they will form after the election ?
This polling was done before Andy Burnham admitted that Labour will have to revisit the scope of what the NHS provides, which has not yet been acknowledged as the game-changer it will become. SAVE THE NHS!!! (er, as long as it is only providing acute care...)
What they failed to mention is that the UK tax base was far too heavily dependent on the City. But then again, no one else, including the Tories, mentioned this either. It was a systemic, cross-party mistake.
And no one believes any of the boastful Tory claims on it anyway. Which is why the Tories *still* trail in the polls.
Specifics please.
More reasons why they are not going to happen.
One thing Hodges doesn't mention is that the above situation would mean Clegg is the only person defending every single decision of the Coalition. Good luck with that one Nick!
Has Farage published the audit of his allowance spending as he promised or is he a coward?
Article is paywalled, but details: in 70 - SEVENTY - French schools, kids refused to honour the Hebdo dead, catcalling during minute silence
So Farage is a liar/frit/chicken/coward.
Or perhaps he's realised that the political positives outweigh the negatives.
The reason for that? Because Cameron's record, policies and arguments would be torn to shreds by Farage. Even CCHQ and the Tory cheerleaders in the press agree.
"
Anyone has the right to refuse to contribute to our output and it is not always necessary to mention their refusal. However, the refusal of an individual or an organisation to make a contribution should not be allowed to act as a veto on the appearance of other contributors holding different views, or on the output itself.
When our audience might reasonably expect to hear counter arguments or where an individual, viewpoint or organisation is not represented it may be appropriate to explain the absence, particularly if it would be unfair to the missing contributor not to do so. This should be done in terms that are fair. We should consider whether we can represent the missing contributor’s views based on what we already know.
"
And:
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Candidates or parties declining to take part in constituency/ward reports or debates cannot, by doing so, effectively exercise a veto over such coverage.
However, this does not weaken in any way the BBC’s obligations of fairness in ensuring the audience is informed of all main strands of argument.
"
Anyway, kids will be kids. They're very astute at picking up on taboos and sticking two fingers up at authority. They're often wrong, but sometimes they have a point.
I recall reading Francis Wheen's book a while back, about the slightly absurd enforced mourning we had here following the death of Diana in '97. Definitely food for thought.
Just before I get mauled, I declare, Je Suis Charlie. Alright?
http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/nigel-farage-was-on-fox-news-and-was-as-bad-as-steve-emerson--gys7U1lA9g
Con 14%, Lab 24%, LD 5%, UKIP 5%, SNP 46%, Greens 4%
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7TUuBACIAEax1-.png
Year Spend
1998 318.43
1999 332.65
2000 340.80
2001 366.09
2002 389.07
2003 420.48
2004 455.07
2005 491.80
2006 523.51
2007 549.40
2008 582.23
2009 633.81
2010 673.10
2011 694.20
2012 694.39
2013 673.92
Con 29%, Lab 33% LD 7%, UKIP 19%, Greens 6%
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/javids-moderation-will-help-tackle-islamist-extremism-not-farages-stridency.html
He is still available at 16/1
http://mobile.lepoint.fr/politique/emmanuel-berretta/charlie-hebdo-minute-de-silence-perturbee-l-education-nationale-recense-70-chahuts-10-01-2015-1895466_1897.php
But yeah, depending on the scale of the disruption this may only be 700 kids nationwide, in which case the nation as a whole seems to have performed quite an impressive feat of STFU.
In the end the NHS could even turn into a negative for Labour insofar as they will clearly bang on about it day and night between now and May and bore everyone to death (because they don't have anything else to bang on about)
There's also the unfortunate fact that Labour themselves run the NHS in Wales which certainly isn't doing any better than the English NHS, LOL....
I broke my thumb on Boxing Day but I haven't gone to hospital yet, despite it being visibly broken. That's what the NHS needs, more tough, stiff-upper-lip warriors like me. Who can't take tops off Branston Pickle jars.
Hooray for the martyrs.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-leader-jim-murphy-4973610
I sense the hand of McTernan behind this, the new ideology, McMurphyism is starting to take shape.
$45 dollars a barrel....
@timothy_stanley: Prediction: if an empty chair is included in the debates, Ed will fall over it, Nigel will put his feet up on it & Clegg will canvas it
The other party leaders would barely address each other. they would aim and blame everything on the empty chair.
I quite enjoyed the Euro debates, for some reason...
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/support-for-far-right-at-20-year-low-if-you-dont-include-really-obvious-things-2015011494409
So, no one then. What a great point
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/512155/#Comment_512155
The Jim Murphy claim is so bizarre. Wasn't this the guy that famously went round the country standing on a box to argue for the union?
Oil is yesterday's news, done now.
Copper's turn to collapse now having decisively broke 6 year support at 3 USD a pound. China couldn't keep on building ghost cities for ever.