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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly a year to go before the WH2016 primaries start and Senator Elizabeth Warren is moving into the frame

Last night I had an 8/1 bet on Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, to be the Democratic party nominee in next year’s White House race. She’s now second favourite in the betting and looks like she’d be a serious challenger if she decided to go for it.

Read the full story here

edmundintokyo

Warren is a great politician, and Hillary is over-rated. But I guess you have to ask, assuming she and Hillary both run, what part of Hillary's 2008 coalition is she going to peel off? Obama barely beat her despite near-unanimous support from black Democrats, and Warren won't get that, so who is Warren getting instead?

MTimT

Warren will get the liberals, which may be enough to win the nomination, but she'll lose the independents, so would be a disaster for the Dem in the general.

MTimT

This is a very good piece looking at some of the issues which would arise from a Warren candidacy, or indeed a run by any other liberal Democrat:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/01/the-lefts-unpopular-populism-elizabeth-warren-democratic-party/384310/

audreyanne

This looks like one of your great hat tip moments, Mike. Thank you. Pb at its best.

I'm a little out of touch with the scene over the pond but I do have my doubts about Hilary getting the nomination.

peter_from_putney

I'm very happy to have backed Elizabeth Warren at 18/1 with Betfair last June. I wouldn't be so sure at 8/1, although this is looking more and more like a two filly race, albeit with a 2/5 odds-on favourite.

Indigo

MTimT said:

This is a very good piece looking at some of the issues which would arise from a Warren candidacy, or indeed a run by any other liberal Democrat:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/01/the-lefts-unpopular-populism-elizabeth-warren-democratic-party/384310/

If a left-wing Democrat beats the odds and wins the party’s nod, though, it is sure to help a Republican be elected.

Which should have resonance for Labour here. Is there any evidence to suggest that left-wing Democrats stay at home if the nominated candidate gets too centrist is the way the hard left of Labour do if their party gets too Blairite ?

Indigo

Latest Greek Opinion Polls out today

ND 29.5
SYRIZA 34.5
PASOK 3.5
ANEL 3.5
XA 6.5
DIMAR 0.5
KKE 6.5
Potami 7.0
Kinima 2.0
Others 6.5

Putting them about 7 seats short of a majority, the preceding poll a few days ago had them with exactly the number required for a majority.

DavidL

Hmm...

I am a fan of HRC. It is unfortunate for America that the incompetent and ineffectual Obama was elected in 2008 instead of her. It turned out all he was good at was getting elected and making a speech.

I just can't help feeling that her time has passed. It is now 16 years since Bill left the Whitehouse and the New Democrat movement is an historical anachronism. So Mike's strategy of looking for an opponent around whom those who think HRC has become too centrist in her old age is a good one. I am just not sure that another old woman from the far left of the party is it. Admittedly it is a pretty thin field at the moment. Spotting the next Obama who can build such a Coalition is not easy. I just think they will be younger, male and from nearer the centre than Warren. Bit like Bill was all those years ago.

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

tory_up_north

Great to see a US betting thread. I hope the UK GE doesn't completely crowd them out in the coming months. It is at this stage that some great bets can be had. I'll read this thread with interest. At least there are fewer runners and riders in the Democrat field than the GOP.

Tim_B

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

TGOHF

Hilary isn't even the best Clinton - so a bit like Ed.

Tim_B

TGOHF said:

Hilary isn't even the best Clinton - so a bit like Ed.

So are you a Chelsea fan? :-)

Please at least - love her or hate her - spell her name correctly =two LLs as in Hillary.

FalseFlag

The Obama crowd despise Hilary and will do all they can to stop her.

Jim Webb would be a better choice though.

Tim_B

FalseFlag said:

The Obama crowd despise Hilary and will do all they can to stop her.

Jim Webb would be a better choice though.

I enjoyed Macarthur Park, By the Time I get to Phoenix, and Wichita Lineman - what's he written recently?

DavidL

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

One of the reasons I said it was a thin field is the paucity of Democratic governors. Looking for democrats who have won large swing states and are not already in their dotage is not easy. Governors rather than Senators is a good rule of thumb.

Casino_Royale

I'm getting flashbacks to 2007. But, like PfP, I'm not tempted at 8/1.

I sense Hillary is far less complacent than last time, is doing the groundwork and will fight for the nomination heart & soul.

Good point by EiT. Worth remembering that Obama only narrowly scraped it over her last time.

Alanbrooke

Just looking back on the last week, have events in Paris given Cameron a lucky break ?

- the Ed NHS in crisis spin has been wiped from the news for most of the week
- he gets to strut about and look Prime Ministerial

Then just as Ed flunks about as he can't do much in the circumstances, up pops Andy Burnham and basically admits Labour can't fund the NHS either.

A subtle shift in the political landscape.

LogicalSong

Carswell out of line with Farage again:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/ukip-confusion-over-nhs-budget-douglas-carswell-supports-more-spending

Tim_B

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

One of the reasons I said it was a thin field is the paucity of Democratic governors. Looking for democrats who have won large swing states and are not already in their dotage is not easy. Governors rather than Senators is a good rule of thumb.

One of the results of the Obama era is the potential state of the Democratic Party - fewer governors than in a long time, more Republicans in the House than any time since the 1920s, Republican control of the US Senate, and the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections being a total repudiation of the Democrats and Obama policies.

This does not mean an approval of Republicans, and the jury is out on what they can do with the opportunity they have been given. The next two years will show what they can do. They have a golden opportunity - it's up to them what they make of it..

FalseFlag

Tim_B said:

FalseFlag said:

The Obama crowd despise Hilary and will do all they can to stop her.

Jim Webb would be a better choice though.

I enjoyed Macarthur Park, By the Time I get to Phoenix, and Wichita Lineman - what's he written recently?

http://www.jameswebb.com/books/book-reviews-by-jim/the-new-american-militarism-how-americans-are-seduced-by-war

DavidL

LogicalSong said:

Carswell out of line with Farage again:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/ukip-confusion-over-nhs-budget-douglas-carswell-supports-more-spending

This will be the same Carswell who only yesterday was making stupid tweets about the doubling of the debt? What a prat.

SirNorfolkPassmore

This is effectively a bet on Hillary falling under a bus, and 8-1 isn't a good value bet on that. Comparisons with the battle with Obama are misplaced. Warren is no Obama.

Tim_B

Casino_Royale said:

I'm getting flashbacks to 2007. But, like PfP, I'm not tempted at 8/1.

I sense Hillary is far less complacent than last time, is doing the groundwork and will fight for the nomination heart & soul.

Good point by EiT. Worth remembering that Obama only narrowly scraped it over her last time.

Hillary less complacent - really? Have you watched her speeches this time round? She is just out of energy and pizzaz.

LogicalSong

"Socrates didn't write anything (that's the point of Plato)."
If only.
http://www.newstatesman.com/media-mole/2015/01/err-socrates-didnt-write-anything-mary-beard-burns-culture-secretary-sajid-javid

Tim_B

FalseFlag said:

Tim_B said:

FalseFlag said:

The Obama crowd despise Hilary and will do all they can to stop her.

Jim Webb would be a better choice though.

I enjoyed Macarthur Park, By the Time I get to Phoenix, and Wichita Lineman - what's he written recently?

http://www.jameswebb.com/books/book-reviews-by-jim/the-new-american-militarism-how-americans-are-seduced-by-war

Yes, I know who he is. It was an attempt at humor. There is a well known song writer by the same name :-)

Tim_B

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

This is effectively a bet on Hillary falling under a bus, and 8-1 isn't a good value bet on that. Comparisons with the battle with Obama are misplaced. Warren is no Obama.

Among Democratic liberals she is exactly that.

DavidL

Tim_B said:

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

One of the reasons I said it was a thin field is the paucity of Democratic governors. Looking for democrats who have won large swing states and are not already in their dotage is not easy. Governors rather than Senators is a good rule of thumb.

One of the results of the Obama era is the potential state of the Democratic Party - fewer governors than in a long time, more Republicans in the House than any time since the 1920s, Republican control of the US Senate, and the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections being a total repudiation of the Democrats and Obama policies.

This does not mean an approval of Republicans, and the jury is out on what they can do with the opportunity they have been given. The next two years will show what they can do. They have a golden opportunity - it's up to them what they make of it..

As you say the Democrats have been hollowed out by the underwhelming Obama but the demographics still favour them for the Whitehouse.

So far at least I agree with your other comment too. HRC looks old and like she is doing this because she should rather than because she really, really wants it

OldKingCole

While not disagreeing that EW’s got a good chance of the nomination and, if she gets it the Presidency itself, what sort of chance hvae the Dems of recapturing the Senate next time? (I know that there’s little or no chance of the House!).
Part of Obama’s problem has, surely been that, while he’s good at winning elections, he doesn’t really seem to have been good at politics.

Tim_B

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

One of the reasons I said it was a thin field is the paucity of Democratic governors. Looking for democrats who have won large swing states and are not already in their dotage is not easy. Governors rather than Senators is a good rule of thumb.

One of the results of the Obama era is the potential state of the Democratic Party - fewer governors than in a long time, more Republicans in the House than any time since the 1920s, Republican control of the US Senate, and the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections being a total repudiation of the Democrats and Obama policies.

This does not mean an approval of Republicans, and the jury is out on what they can do with the opportunity they have been given. The next two years will show what they can do. They have a golden opportunity - it's up to them what they make of it..

As you say the Democrats have been hollowed out by the underwhelming Obama but the demographics still favour them for the Whitehouse.

So far at least I agree with your other comment too. HRC looks old and like she is doing this because she should rather than because she really, really wants it

The demographics mean the Republicans need to reach out beyond the 'elderly white males' stereotype. Jeb will help that, (married to a Mexican American and a fluent Spanish speaker) depending what his role is.

HRC and Warren are essentially the same age.

TGOHF

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

One of the reasons I said it was a thin field is the paucity of Democratic governors. Looking for democrats who have won large swing states and are not already in their dotage is not easy. Governors rather than Senators is a good rule of thumb.

One of the results of the Obama era is the potential state of the Democratic Party - fewer governors than in a long time, more Republicans in the House than any time since the 1920s, Republican control of the US Senate, and the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections being a total repudiation of the Democrats and Obama policies.

This does not mean an approval of Republicans, and the jury is out on what they can do with the opportunity they have been given. The next two years will show what they can do. They have a golden opportunity - it's up to them what they make of it..

As you say the Democrats have been hollowed out by the underwhelming Obama but the demographics still favour them for the Whitehouse.

So far at least I agree with your other comment too. HRC looks old and like she is doing this because she should rather than because she really, really wants it

She is only 68 I guess but that age would rule her out in the UK - look at poor old Vince - can't even get a job on the LD election team...

FalseFlag

Tim_B said:

FalseFlag said:

Tim_B said:

FalseFlag said:

The Obama crowd despise Hilary and will do all they can to stop her.

Jim Webb would be a better choice though.

I enjoyed Macarthur Park, By the Time I get to Phoenix, and Wichita Lineman - what's he written recently?

http://www.jameswebb.com/books/book-reviews-by-jim/the-new-american-militarism-how-americans-are-seduced-by-war

Yes, I know who he is. It was an attempt at humor. There is a well known song writer by the same name :-)

Thought they were books he wrote. Never underestimate the anti-war vote, Webb also has bipartisan appeal with both independents and Reagan Democrats.

FalseFlag

Orban makes the speech Cameron should have.

http://news.yahoo.com/hungary-pm-orban-says-immigration-threat-must-stopped-083257199.html

Financier

Welsh Labour Education Fail Again

A key policy to drive up standards in numeracy and literacy in Wales has made "modest" progress, partly due to a lack of support from the Welsh government.

In a report on literacy standards of 11 to 14-year-olds, education watchdog Estyn blamed a lack of time and support for schools.

The provision to develop pupils' literacy skills in a majority of schools was only "adequate".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-30778644

DavidL

Tim_B said:

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

One of the reasons I said it was a thin field is the paucity of Democratic governors. Looking for democrats who have won large swing states and are not already in their dotage is not easy. Governors rather than Senators is a good rule of thumb.

One of the results of the Obama era is the potential state of the Democratic Party - fewer governors than in a long time, more Republicans in the House than any time since the 1920s, Republican control of the US Senate, and the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections being a total repudiation of the Democrats and Obama policies.

This does not mean an approval of Republicans, and the jury is out on what they can do with the opportunity they have been given. The next two years will show what they can do. They have a golden opportunity - it's up to them what they make of it..

As you say the Democrats have been hollowed out by the underwhelming Obama but the demographics still favour them for the Whitehouse.

So far at least I agree with your other comment too. HRC looks old and like she is doing this because she should rather than because she really, really wants it

The demographics mean the Republicans need to reach out beyond the 'elderly white males' stereotype. Jeb will help that, (married to a Mexican American and a fluent Spanish speaker) depending what his role is.

HRC and Warren are essentially the same age.

As is Jim Webb. I thought it was supposed to be the republicans who were supposed to be dominated by the Oldies.

chestnut

Today's YG.

Sample :1649

Number of 2010 Lab voters: 399
Number of 2015 Lab voters: 399

Financier

Gas Price Down

E.On says it will cut its standard gas prices by 3.5%, equivalent to £24 off an average annual household gas bill.

The price cut will take place with immediate effect. German-owned E.On supplies gas and electricity to five million homes in the UK.

Tony Cocker, chief executive of E.On UK, said "We are the first supplier to reflect through our standard tariff the overall drop in wholesale gas prices."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30792208

Tim_B

OldKingCole said:

While not disagreeing that EW’s got a good chance of the nomination and, if she gets it the Presidency itself, what sort of chance hvae the Dems of recapturing the Senate next time? (I know that there’s little or no chance of the House!).
Part of Obama’s problem has, surely been that, while he’s good at winning elections, he doesn’t really seem to have been good at politics.

Obama has a couple of problems -

he loves to give speeches and go on find raising trips.

He hates to make deals and do the shoulder rubbing that is an essential part of daily politics.

One of the reasons the Republicans did so well in the 2014 mid-terms was that they were able to ask Democratic Senators "How do you explain not sponsoring any bills or entering any amendments during the last six years?"

That was because Harry Reid had let 350 Bills passed by the House just sit on his desk and bring none to a vote.

Alistair

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

Young people vote Democrat, young people do no turn out for anything but the presidential election.

Tim_B

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

One of the reasons I said it was a thin field is the paucity of Democratic governors. Looking for democrats who have won large swing states and are not already in their dotage is not easy. Governors rather than Senators is a good rule of thumb.

One of the results of the Obama era is the potential state of the Democratic Party - fewer governors than in a long time, more Republicans in the House than any time since the 1920s, Republican control of the US Senate, and the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections being a total repudiation of the Democrats and Obama policies.

This does not mean an approval of Republicans, and the jury is out on what they can do with the opportunity they have been given. The next two years will show what they can do. They have a golden opportunity - it's up to them what they make of it..

As you say the Democrats have been hollowed out by the underwhelming Obama but the demographics still favour them for the Whitehouse.

So far at least I agree with your other comment too. HRC looks old and like she is doing this because she should rather than because she really, really wants it

The demographics mean the Republicans need to reach out beyond the 'elderly white males' stereotype. Jeb will help that, (married to a Mexican American and a fluent Spanish speaker) depending what his role is.

HRC and Warren are essentially the same age.

As is Jim Webb. I thought it was supposed to be the republicans who were supposed to be dominated by the Oldies.

But Jim Webb wrote some great songs. I'm not familiar with what HRC has written :-)

DavidL

Financier said:

Welsh Labour Education Fail Again

A key policy to drive up standards in numeracy and literacy in Wales has made "modest" progress, partly due to a lack of support from the Welsh government.

In a report on literacy standards of 11 to 14-year-olds, education watchdog Estyn blamed a lack of time and support for schools.

The provision to develop pupils' literacy skills in a majority of schools was only "adequate".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-30778644

To me, it shows the problem with education when a ranking of "adequate" is somehow deficient. Do educationalists not know what these words mean or have they so devalued the language that they in fact mean something else?

FalseFlag

Alistair said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

Young people vote Democrat, young people do no turn out for anything but the presidential election.

Young whites vote Republican. Whites will also remain the majority of eligible voters for a good many years, even assuming they do nothing about immigration. Plus a lot of Asians and Hispanics, as the last elections showed, prefer to vote for the white rather than black party.

Alistair

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

SirNorfolkPassmore

Tim_B said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

This is effectively a bet on Hillary falling under a bus, and 8-1 isn't a good value bet on that. Comparisons with the battle with Obama are misplaced. Warren is no Obama.

Among Democratic liberals she is exactly that.

Among a proportion of them - no more than that. To gain momentum, Obama needed to break out way beyond the New England dinner party circuit. If you look at polls of Hispanic voters, black voters, soccer moms etc, there is no way that's happening.

Warren is Bill Bradley - classic, Ivy League, vote for me because I'm better than you type. She'll have Bradley's fate.

Financier

YouGov

The average of the first 6 polls show a marked increase in LD 2010 VI retention. at 28.3% - up from 25.7% in December.

In Scotland there looks to be a small narrowing of the gap between SNP and Labour: from 43/25 to 41/26.

Alistair

FalseFlag said:

Alistair said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

Young people vote Democrat, young people do no turn out for anything but the presidential election.

Young whites vote Republican.

Numbers don't back you up on that. Taking a random poll from final days of the campaign which, in this case, showed a 2% Romney lead

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

18-29
Romney/Ryan 28%
Obama/Biden 57%

I'm fairly happy to call that a decisive lead in the young person demographic

DavidL

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

Tim_B

OldKingCole said:

While not disagreeing that EW’s got a good chance of the nomination and, if she gets it the Presidency itself, what sort of chance hvae the Dems of recapturing the Senate next time? (I know that there’s little or no chance of the House!).
Part of Obama’s problem has, surely been that, while he’s good at winning elections, he doesn’t really seem to have been good at politics.

I think there's little doubt that this is a Republican high water mark in both the Senate and House, because it represents a complete repudiation of Obama and his policies, rather than an endorsement of the Republicans. To be fair, they tied Democratic candidates to Obama and his policies rather than offering policies of their own.

As an aside, Obama has never offered policies or a philosophy other than hope and change.

Indigo

Tim_B said:

FalseFlag said:

The Obama crowd despise Hilary and will do all they can to stop her.

Jim Webb would be a better choice though.

I enjoyed Macarthur Park, By the Time I get to Phoenix, and Wichita Lineman - what's he written recently?

I thought he was the administrator for NASA during the moon shots, must be getting on a bit now...

Financier

DavidL said:

Financier said:

Welsh Labour Education Fail Again

A key policy to drive up standards in numeracy and literacy in Wales has made "modest" progress, partly due to a lack of support from the Welsh government.

In a report on literacy standards of 11 to 14-year-olds, education watchdog Estyn blamed a lack of time and support for schools.

The provision to develop pupils' literacy skills in a majority of schools was only "adequate".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-30778644

To me, it shows the problem with education when a ranking of "adequate" is somehow deficient. Do educationalists not know what these words mean or have they so devalued the language that they in fact mean something else?

@DavidL

In Wales many teachers are happy if their pupils are rated average in a school that is rated average in Wales - and that means well down the global ability level. Yet the Welsh government cannot understand why more companies are not investing in Wales!

Indigo

LogicalSong said:

Carswell out of line with Farage again:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/ukip-confusion-over-nhs-budget-douglas-carswell-supports-more-spending

Politicians disagree... in other news........

I find this "splits" crap just a boring in the major parties, how can we have a useful debate when everyone has to pretend to have the same point of view.

Tim_B

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Tim_B said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

This is effectively a bet on Hillary falling under a bus, and 8-1 isn't a good value bet on that. Comparisons with the battle with Obama are misplaced. Warren is no Obama.

Among Democratic liberals she is exactly that.

Among a proportion of them - no more than that. To gain momentum, Obama needed to break out way beyond the New England dinner party circuit. If you look at polls of Hispanic voters, black voters, soccer moms etc, there is no way that's happening.

Warren is Bill Bradley - classic, Ivy League, vote for me because I'm better than you type. She'll have Bradley's fate.

Elizabeth Warren is nothing like Bill Bradley!

Tim_B

FalseFlag said:

Alistair said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

Young people vote Democrat, young people do no turn out for anything but the presidential election.

Young whites vote Republican. Whites will also remain the majority of eligible voters for a good many years, even assuming they do nothing about immigration. Plus a lot of Asians and Hispanics, as the last elections showed, prefer to vote for the white rather than black party.

true in the deep south, not elsewhere.

DavidL

Financier said:

DavidL said:

Financier said:

Welsh Labour Education Fail Again

A key policy to drive up standards in numeracy and literacy in Wales has made "modest" progress, partly due to a lack of support from the Welsh government.

In a report on literacy standards of 11 to 14-year-olds, education watchdog Estyn blamed a lack of time and support for schools.

The provision to develop pupils' literacy skills in a majority of schools was only "adequate".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-30778644

To me, it shows the problem with education when a ranking of "adequate" is somehow deficient. Do educationalists not know what these words mean or have they so devalued the language that they in fact mean something else?

@DavidL

In Wales many teachers are happy if their pupils are rated average in a school that is rated average in Wales - and that means well down the global ability level. Yet the Welsh government cannot understand why more companies are not investing in Wales!

It reminds me of an entry in medical records I used to see in my previous job: "NFF" which was short for normal for Fife.

When "adequate" in fact means inadequate or not good enough we have gone through the looking glass. Perhaps if we called their performance inadequate more might be done to address the problem.

Tim_B

Indigo said:

Tim_B said:

FalseFlag said:

The Obama crowd despise Hilary and will do all they can to stop her.

Jim Webb would be a better choice though.

I enjoyed Macarthur Park, By the Time I get to Phoenix, and Wichita Lineman - what's he written recently?

I thought he was the administrator for NASA during the moon shots, must be getting on a bit now...

Unfortunately he died in 1992.

Casino_Royale

New political party for Tap?

http://www.theguardian.com/music/2014/apr/30/bez-launches-parliament-bid-eccles-happy-mondays

Indigo

DavidL said:

LogicalSong said:

Carswell out of line with Farage again:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/ukip-confusion-over-nhs-budget-douglas-carswell-supports-more-spending

This will be the same Carswell who only yesterday was making stupid tweets about the doubling of the debt? What a prat.

FY 2015* £1.36 trillion
FY 2014 £1.26 trillion
FY 2013 £1.19 trillion
FY 2012 £1.10 trillion
FY 2011 £0.91 trillion
FY 2010 £0.76 trillion
FY 2009 £0.62 trillion

Pretty damn close, considering 0.76 was at the end of 2010 after the Conservatives had been in power for 6 months, the actual figure in July is going to be roughly halfway between that and the 2009 figure, 0.67bn, 2 times 0.67 = 1.34bn, only a really desparate Conservative would quibble about that difference.

NickPalmer

Indigo said:

Latest Greek Opinion Polls out today

ND 29.5
SYRIZA 34.5
PASOK 3.5
ANEL 3.5
XA 6.5
DIMAR 0.5
KKE 6.5
Potami 7.0
Kinima 2.0
Others 6.5

Putting them about 7 seats short of a majority, the preceding poll a few days ago had them with exactly the number required for a majority.

Actually the latest poll is the best for Syriza for some days - the one the day before had them only 2 points ahead
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015

Overall the polls look pretty steady - a modest Syriza lead, the new centre-left party Potami doing well, the Communists and Golden Dawn just staying above water, and everyone else stuffed. The Greek system gives a bonus to the largest party, so it'll come down to whether ND can catch Syriza or not.

Pulpstar

If anyone can get on with Hills -

Keep calm and SMASH into the 10-1 for her with them.

DavidL

Indigo said:

DavidL said:

LogicalSong said:

Carswell out of line with Farage again:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/ukip-confusion-over-nhs-budget-douglas-carswell-supports-more-spending

This will be the same Carswell who only yesterday was making stupid tweets about the doubling of the debt? What a prat.

FY 2015* £1.36 trillion
FY 2014 £1.26 trillion
FY 2013 £1.19 trillion
FY 2012 £1.10 trillion
FY 2011 £0.91 trillion
FY 2010 £0.76 trillion
FY 2009 £0.62 trillion

Pretty damn close, considering 0.76 was at the end of 2010 after the Conservatives had been in power for 6 months, the actual figure in July is going to be roughly halfway between that and the 2009 figure, 0.67bn, 2 times 0.67 = 1.34bn, only a really desparate Conservative would quibble about that difference.

The point I am making is that he is now apparently arguing for more health spending. Having and consuming cakes at the same time comes to mind. As does the economic illiteracy of suggesting that a Chancellor who inherited the largest deficit in history could somehow stop debt increasing.

As I suggested last night maybe he just hid his ignorance better as a tory.

NickPalmer

On topic, I've not been following US politics closely, but Warren strikes me as as the Democrat Rand Paul - lots of enthusiastic supporters but ultimately not a likely winner. It's hard toi see past HRC as the Democratic nominee IMO, though she won't be a shoo-in for the general election.

rcs1000

NickPalmer said:

Indigo said:

Latest Greek Opinion Polls out today

ND 29.5
SYRIZA 34.5
PASOK 3.5
ANEL 3.5
XA 6.5
DIMAR 0.5
KKE 6.5
Potami 7.0
Kinima 2.0
Others 6.5

Putting them about 7 seats short of a majority, the preceding poll a few days ago had them with exactly the number required for a majority.

Actually the latest poll is the best for Syriza for some days - the one the day before had them only 2 points ahead
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015

Overall the polls look pretty steady - a modest Syriza lead, the new centre-left party Potami doing well, the Communists and Golden Dawn just staying above water, and everyone else stuffed. The Greek system gives a bonus to the largest party, so it'll come down to whether ND can catch Syriza or not.

I think that's right: my money is on SYRIZA by 2-3 points, but with the requirement to team up with Potami to form a government.

That will be followed by three months of negotiations with the IMF/the EU/the ECB, and will be followed by Greece agreeing to continue to run a primary budget surplus, and in return all the bond holders will agree to a maturity extension and a cut in coupon payments.

All side will declare victory, and they'll then have to organise another bail out of the Greek banks (who own the bulk of Greek debt).

There will be absolutely no impact on BNP/SocGen/etc.

Indigo

DavidL said:

Indigo said:

DavidL said:

LogicalSong said:

Carswell out of line with Farage again:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/ukip-confusion-over-nhs-budget-douglas-carswell-supports-more-spending

This will be the same Carswell who only yesterday was making stupid tweets about the doubling of the debt? What a prat.

FY 2015* £1.36 trillion
FY 2014 £1.26 trillion
FY 2013 £1.19 trillion
FY 2012 £1.10 trillion
FY 2011 £0.91 trillion
FY 2010 £0.76 trillion
FY 2009 £0.62 trillion

Pretty damn close, considering 0.76 was at the end of 2010 after the Conservatives had been in power for 6 months, the actual figure in July is going to be roughly halfway between that and the 2009 figure, 0.67bn, 2 times 0.67 = 1.34bn, only a really desparate Conservative would quibble about that difference.

The point I am making is that he is now apparently arguing for more health spending. Having and consuming cakes at the same time comes to mind. As does the economic illiteracy of suggesting that a Chancellor who inherited the largest deficit in history could somehow stop debt increasing.

As I suggested last night maybe he just hid his ignorance better as a tory.

All those may be true, but what he said was factually correct. Did you really expect him to say that GO was the best chancellor ever and hadn't put a foot wrong, while his party is trying to take seats off yours? Dont forget if you follow the UKIP budget they just stopped paying 19bn a year to the EU, that buys them a bit of health spending...

Financier

DavidL said:

Financier said:

DavidL said:

Financier said:

Welsh Labour Education Fail Again

A key policy to drive up standards in numeracy and literacy in Wales has made "modest" progress, partly due to a lack of support from the Welsh government.

In a report on literacy standards of 11 to 14-year-olds, education watchdog Estyn blamed a lack of time and support for schools.

The provision to develop pupils' literacy skills in a majority of schools was only "adequate".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-30778644

To me, it shows the problem with education when a ranking of "adequate" is somehow deficient. Do educationalists not know what these words mean or have they so devalued the language that they in fact mean something else?

@DavidL

In Wales many teachers are happy if their pupils are rated average in a school that is rated average in Wales - and that means well down the global ability level. Yet the Welsh government cannot understand why more companies are not investing in Wales!

It reminds me of an entry in medical records I used to see in my previous job: "NFF" which was short for normal for Fife.

When "adequate" in fact means inadequate or not good enough we have gone through the looking glass. Perhaps if we called their performance inadequate more might be done to address the problem.

The Labour Welsh Government do not want to upset their voters - many Welsh teachers - already some schools have been on the brink of striking due to the "extra work" they have to do.

JackW

NickPalmer said:

On topic, I've not been following US politics closely, but Warren strikes me as as the Democrat Rand Paul - lots of enthusiastic supporters but ultimately not a likely winner. It's hard toi see past HRC as the Democratic nominee IMO, though she won't be a shoo-in for the general election.

You're far too conservative young Nicholas .... not something often heard on PB.

PBers should work on the basis that if HRC runs she will become POTUS. All else is fluff, nonsense, Ave-it predictions and trading bets at the margin.

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

20 minutes

Indigo

rcs1000 said:

NickPalmer said:

Indigo said:

Latest Greek Opinion Polls out today

ND 29.5
SYRIZA 34.5
PASOK 3.5
ANEL 3.5
XA 6.5
DIMAR 0.5
KKE 6.5
Potami 7.0
Kinima 2.0
Others 6.5

Putting them about 7 seats short of a majority, the preceding poll a few days ago had them with exactly the number required for a majority.

Actually the latest poll is the best for Syriza for some days - the one the day before had them only 2 points ahead
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015

Overall the polls look pretty steady - a modest Syriza lead, the new centre-left party Potami doing well, the Communists and Golden Dawn just staying above water, and everyone else stuffed. The Greek system gives a bonus to the largest party, so it'll come down to whether ND can catch Syriza or not.

I think that's right: my money is on SYRIZA by 2-3 points, but with the requirement to team up with Potami to form a government.

That will be followed by three months of negotiations with the IMF/the EU/the ECB, and will be followed by Greece agreeing to continue to run a primary budget surplus, and in return all the bond holders will agree to a maturity extension and a cut in coupon payments.

All side will declare victory, and they'll then have to organise another bail out of the Greek banks (who own the bulk of Greek debt).

There will be absolutely no impact on BNP/SocGen/etc.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100015389/in-2015-85-of-greeces-debt-will-be-owned-by-european-taxpayers/

Alistair

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

FalseFlag

Alistair said:

FalseFlag said:

Alistair said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

Young people vote Democrat, young people do no turn out for anything but the presidential election.

Young whites vote Republican.

Numbers don't back you up on that. Taking a random poll from final days of the campaign which, in this case, showed a 2% Romney lead

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

18-29
Romney/Ryan 28%
Obama/Biden 57%

I'm fairly happy to call that a decisive lead in the young person demographic

Says Romney leads 57 to 39 among whites and doesn't break the white vote out by age. Given Obama won 18 to 29 by 57 to 38 amongst all voters I doubt he would have won by even more amongst white voters than others.

Young whites vote Republican.

HYUFD

Warren won't run, a plurality of Democratic primary voters are moderates anyway. If Hillary does face a challenger it will be Bernie Sanders who has hinted he will run.

TimB It is often the case that winning the presidency costs your party in Congress and state races, as was the case for the Democrats post 1994 with Clinton and the Republicans post 2006 with George W Bush

FalseFlag

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

Low IQ voters aren't conscientious enough to vote regularly, fortunately.

Indigo

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

Is Andrew Cuomo likely to reach the sort of stature his old man did and become a player for the Democrats ?

JackW

FalseFlag said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

Low IQ voters aren't conscientious enough to vote regularly, fortunately.

You've never troubled the tellers then ....

FalseFlag

JackW said:

FalseFlag said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

Low IQ voters aren't conscientious enough to vote regularly, fortunately.

You've never troubled the tellers then ....

With rapier wit and insight like that you should post more.

OldKingCole

One really does worry sometimes about US “democracy”!

Tim_B

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

The problem is that that when everyone wanted pro-jobs policies, Obama spent almost 18 months, and exhausted all his political capital on., Obamacare, which nobody wanted.

He is an ideological left winger which does not resonate with the US electorate, except on a presidential level. He has had zero coat tails.

rottenborough

Morning all,

Good to see a thread on USA. Any one else got a punt on Jeb Bush? Looks like he will run.

DavidL

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

It is part of the price of being in power. Look at what happened to the tories and Labour in the 90s and 00s respectively in local government. Look at what has happened to the Lib Dems in this Parliament.

When you look at the demographics it is hard to see a future for the Republicans. The fastest growing segment of the vote is the Hispanics which are strongly democratic. The white middle classes are shrinking as a percentage of the whole into minority status. Republicans struggle to reach out beyond that. And yet they have the House, the Senate and the vast majority of governor's mansions. Weird isn't it?

JackW

FalseFlag said:

JackW said:

FalseFlag said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

Low IQ voters aren't conscientious enough to vote regularly, fortunately.

You've never troubled the tellers then ....

With rapier wit and insight like that you should post more.

I would but I offer help in the community for Putin's fellow travellers .... I'm mighty busy don't you know.

FalseFlag

JackW said:

FalseFlag said:

JackW said:

FalseFlag said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

Low IQ voters aren't conscientious enough to vote regularly, fortunately.

You've never troubled the tellers then ....

With rapier wit and insight like that you should post more.

I would but I offer help in the community for Putin's fellow travellers .... I'm mighty busy don't you know.

Great!

rcs1000

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

NickPalmer said:

Indigo said:

Latest Greek Opinion Polls out today

ND 29.5
SYRIZA 34.5
PASOK 3.5
ANEL 3.5
XA 6.5
DIMAR 0.5
KKE 6.5
Potami 7.0
Kinima 2.0
Others 6.5

Putting them about 7 seats short of a majority, the preceding poll a few days ago had them with exactly the number required for a majority.

Actually the latest poll is the best for Syriza for some days - the one the day before had them only 2 points ahead
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015

Overall the polls look pretty steady - a modest Syriza lead, the new centre-left party Potami doing well, the Communists and Golden Dawn just staying above water, and everyone else stuffed. The Greek system gives a bonus to the largest party, so it'll come down to whether ND can catch Syriza or not.

I think that's right: my money is on SYRIZA by 2-3 points, but with the requirement to team up with Potami to form a government.

That will be followed by three months of negotiations with the IMF/the EU/the ECB, and will be followed by Greece agreeing to continue to run a primary budget surplus, and in return all the bond holders will agree to a maturity extension and a cut in coupon payments.

All side will declare victory, and they'll then have to organise another bail out of the Greek banks (who own the bulk of Greek debt).

There will be absolutely no impact on BNP/SocGen/etc.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100015389/in-2015-85-of-greeces-debt-will-be-owned-by-european-taxpayers/

His numbers are completely wrong - that article is from 2012 and is based on assumptions about the future that turned out to be wildly inaccurate.

Roughly speaking, 75% of Greek debt is owned by the IMF/ECB/the EU, and 25% is owned by banks, hedge funds and private individuals.

A little more than half of Greek debt is owned by the ECB and the EU.

What will happen is exactly what happened in almost every other IMF led bail out. If it turns out the debt cannot be repaid as planned, then the debt maturity is extended, and the coupon is reduced.

bigjohnowls

Todays BJESUS

12.1.15 LAB 318 (322) CON 262(259) LD 33(32) UKIP 1(1) Others 36(36) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 114 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

bigjohnowls

Every BESUS

17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
30.9.14 LAB 334 (334) CON 260(260) LD 32(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
7.10.14 LAB 325 (334) CON 269(260) LD 31(32) UKIP 1(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
14.10.14 LAB 328 (325) CON 264(269) LD 33(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
21.10.14 LAB 327 (328) CON 265(264) LD 33(33) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
4.11.14 LAB 320 (322) CON 268(269) LD 31(33) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
11.11.14 LAB 320 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.11.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 30(29) (Ed is crap is PM)
25.11.14 LAB 319 (319) CON 267(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 31(30) (Ed is crap is PM)
2.12.14 LAB 320 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(2) Others 31(31) (Ed is crap is PM)
9.12.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 32(31) (Ed is crap is PM)
16.12.14 LAB 318 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 33(32) (Ed is crap is PM)
23.12.14 LAB 320 (318) CON 263(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 35(33) (Ed is crap is PM)
5.1.15 LAB 322 (320) CON 259(263) LD 32(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 36(35) (Ed is crap is PM)
12.1.15 LAB 318 (322) CON 262(259) LD 33(32) UKIP 1(1) Others 36(36) (Ed is crap is PM)

JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 16th December Projection) :

Con 300 (-4) .. Lab 269 (NC) .. LibDem 36 (+2) .. SNP 19 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold (From TCTC)
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 16 Dec - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

rcs1000

@Indigo,

As an aside, the coming default in Venezuela is going to dwarf Greece this year. 95% of Venezuela's exports are oil, and the country is utterly dependent on oil to pay for public services.

The 60% fall in the price of oil will decimate the Venezuelan economy which was, even before the oil price crash, running a huge budget deficit. If you include the debts - as you should - of the state owned oil company PDVSA in governmet debt, then it's private sector impact is perhaps 4x the size of Greece - although falling mainly on US banks rather than European ones.

Tim_B

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

It is part of the price of being in power. Look at what happened to the tories and Labour in the 90s and 00s respectively in local government. Look at what has happened to the Lib Dems in this Parliament.

When you look at the demographics it is hard to see a future for the Republicans. The fastest growing segment of the vote is the Hispanics which are strongly democratic. The white middle classes are shrinking as a percentage of the whole into minority status. Republicans struggle to reach out beyond that. And yet they have the House, the Senate and the vast majority of governor's mansions. Weird isn't it?

The reason the Republicans are doing so well is the utter repudiation of Obama and his policies.

Beyond that it's up to the Republicans to broaden their appeal beyond the white elderly male vote.

rcs1000

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 16th December Projection) :

Con 300 (-4) .. Lab 269 (NC) .. LibDem 36 (+2) .. SNP 19 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold (From TCTC)
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 16 Dec - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

My friend in the Labour Party in Cambridge doesn't think they'll unseat Huppert (last year he was pretty sure it was a Labour gain).

Tim_B

Indigo said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

Is Andrew Cuomo likely to reach the sort of stature his old man did and become a player for the Democrats ?

Probably not.

Indigo

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

It is part of the price of being in power. Look at what happened to the tories and Labour in the 90s and 00s respectively in local government. Look at what has happened to the Lib Dems in this Parliament.

When you look at the demographics it is hard to see a future for the Republicans. The fastest growing segment of the vote is the Hispanics which are strongly democratic. The white middle classes are shrinking as a percentage of the whole into minority status. Republicans struggle to reach out beyond that. And yet they have the House, the Senate and the vast majority of governor's mansions. Weird isn't it?

What you say about demographics is true as a trend, but currently Hispanics are only 16% of the population, whites are around 72% and black at 12.6%, and there are pretty much the same number of people in their 50's as there are in their 20's

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF

Casino_Royale

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 16th December Projection) :

Con 300 (-4) .. Lab 269 (NC) .. LibDem 36 (+2) .. SNP 19 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold (From TCTC)
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 16 Dec - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

Quite a bit more bullish on the Lib Dems than most, and a strong rearguard action by SLAB in Scotland. You could be right but the former is more likely than the latter IMHO.

Tory seats look about right.

JackW

rcs1000 said:

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 16th December Projection) :

Con 300 (-4) .. Lab 269 (NC) .. LibDem 36 (+2) .. SNP 19 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold (From TCTC)
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 16 Dec - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

My friend in the Labour Party in Cambridge doesn't think they'll unseat Hubbert (last year he was pretty sure it was a Labour gain).

Over the past year the seat has moved from in the mid "Likely LibDem Hold" tier to very firmly in the HOLD column. Huppert is doing a Farron/Lamb during his first term.

Socrates

I think Warren is fantastic - and she's far more personable than the "Harvard professor" accusation suggests. In polls, she ranks at the top of candidates people would like to have a drink with.

However, I don't buy that she's really running. It would need a hell of an effort to overcome the Clinton machine and, unlike Obama in 2008, it's extremely high risk. Given her age, she would unlikely to be able to run again should HRC get in, and the Clintons are brutal in terms of punishing 'disloyalty'. Warren would be frozen out of an HRC Whitehouse. It's in Warren's interest to keep the speculation going, as it raises her profile and influence, but I don't think it's going to get beyond that.

O'Malley is the one to watch.

Roger

Jack you've forgotten the chorus.....all together now

...Ed Milliband will never be Prime Minister

TGOHF

rcs1000 said:

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

My friend in the Labour Party in Cambridge doesn't think they'll unseat Huppert (last year he was pretty sure it was a Labour gain).

He is spot on - get on Huppert whilst he is still odds against.

Socrates

Tim_B said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

Also, I don't buy this "hollowed out" by Obama narrative. What backs this up?

The statistics quoted by Tim_B downthread for a start. If you really want to be depressed look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

As I said, a thin field.

All but 1 of the Republican pickups have come at mid-term elections. The problem is not that Obama has hollowed out the party, it is that the Democratic voters don't vote at mid-terms.

The problem is that that when everyone wanted pro-jobs policies, Obama spent almost 18 months, and exhausted all his political capital on., Obamacare, which nobody wanted.

He is an ideological left winger which does not resonate with the US electorate, except on a presidential level. He has had zero coat tails.

I'm sure the 10 million people that got healthcare from Obamacare wanted it. The slowing rate of healthcare inflation will also help many more feel secure in middle class status. And it improved the nation's fiscal outlook too.

As for your "does not resonate" remarks, well that's not clearly not true. If you compare the performance of the Democrats in Senate and House elections when Obama is on the ballot versus midterm years, they do a lot better. Just look at 2008 and 2012 versus 2010 and 2014.

Socrates

FalseFlag said:

Alistair said:

FalseFlag said:

Alistair said:

Tim_B said:

There appear to be two separate Democratic parties - one of which gets Obama elected, which is amazingly successful, and the other, which elects other Democratic folks, is increasingly unsuccessful. The latter will change over time, it just remains to be seen how long it will take.

Young people vote Democrat, young people do no turn out for anything but the presidential election.

Young whites vote Republican.

Numbers don't back you up on that. Taking a random poll from final days of the campaign which, in this case, showed a 2% Romney lead

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

18-29
Romney/Ryan 28%
Obama/Biden 57%

I'm fairly happy to call that a decisive lead in the young person demographic

Says Romney leads 57 to 39 among whites and doesn't break the white vote out by age. Given Obama won 18 to 29 by 57 to 38 amongst all voters I doubt he would have won by even more amongst white voters than others.

Young whites vote Republican.

Data that I've seen (but can't find now) suggests young whites split fairly evenly between the two parties.

TGOHF

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 16th December Projection) :

Con 300 (-4) .. Lab 269 (NC) .. LibDem 36 (+2) .. SNP 19 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold (From TCTC)
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 16 Dec - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

My friend in the Labour Party in Cambridge doesn't think they'll unseat Hubbert (last year he was pretty sure it was a Labour gain).

Over the past year the seat has moved from in the mid "Likely LibDem Hold" tier to very firmly in the HOLD column. Huppert is doing a Farron/Lamb during his first term.

You have to factor in the Labour candidate , his previous antics, his links to the unions and Huppert doing a fair job. Perhaps Labour will be 3rd again like last time.

JackW

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 16th December Projection) :

Con 300 (-4) .. Lab 269 (NC) .. LibDem 36 (+2) .. SNP 19 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold (From TCTC)
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 16 Dec - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

Quite a bit more bullish on the Lib Dems than most, and a strong rearguard action by SLAB in Scotland. You could be right but the former is more likely than the latter IMHO.

Tory seats look about right.

The yellow peril have edged up in more recent projections but 36 still represents 21 net losses.

A point of note with Scottish voters is their previous inclination to split ticket and in Westminster elections to appear more inclined to the incumbent. SLAB also performed well last time and I wonder whether Gordon will offer one last hurrah for the party in May.

BenM

I see JackW's predictions are falling into line.

Still at least 20 seats to wipe from the Tory side, but getting there.

JackW

Roger said:

Jack you've forgotten the chorus.....all together now

...Ed Milliband will never be Prime Minister

I'm glad you've come round to my thinking but you'll have to audition for a part in the chorus and I have a feeling you'll be warbling for a back row place with other recent converts .... better late than never though.