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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

A CON majority rated as being just a tad more likely than a LAB one on Betfair pic.twitter.com/PrVP160EJm

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Comments

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    First
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    firstish
  • Majority % have been around there for a while, but the most seats betting only just came into line...

    Long-term polling chart anyone? Here are the monthly averages of every opinion poll for the last 35 years (big shout out to Mark Pack for the data)

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/554337877900152833
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited January 2015

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    What we need to do is either get them to leave the faith, to become notional Muslims without any true belief, or to get them to adopt them liberal Christian position that their scripture is not always literally true and certain parts should be overlooked. This will require a loud public debate where sacred cows are challenged, things that deserve mocking are mocked, and inconvenient truths about Islam are thrown in their faces. Telling people "well you're not one of the active terrorists, so all your other beliefs are fine" is not going to work.

    I am very happy to see scriptural literalism challenged, and who better to do it than someone called Socrates? Once you have achieved all that, do you wish to join me in persuading the good people of the United States that the Bible is not literally true, that it's OK to teach evolution in schools, that abortion should be legal and that Obama is not the antichrist?
    People who believe in creationism or wish to restrict abortion are no danger to me or mine.
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I know my place.
    Ishmael_X said:

    firstish

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    What we need to do is either get them to leave the faith, to become notional Muslims without any true belief, or to get them to adopt them liberal Christian position that their scripture is not always literally true and certain parts should be overlooked. This will require a loud public debate where sacred cows are challenged, things that deserve mocking are mocked, and inconvenient truths about Islam are thrown in their faces. Telling people "well you're not one of the active terrorists, so all your other beliefs are fine" is not going to work.

    I am very happy to see scriptural literalism challenged, and who better to do it than someone called Socrates? Once you have achieved all that, do you wish to join me in persuading the good people of the United States that the Bible is not literally true, that it's OK to teach evolution in schools, that abortion should be legal and that Obama is not the antichrist?
    People who believe in creationism or wish to restrict abortion are no danger to me or mine.
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
    It would be democratically possible by Constitutional amendment.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Majority % have been around there for a while, but the most seats betting only just came into line...

    Long-term polling chart anyone? Here are the monthly averages of every opinion poll for the last 35 years (big shout out to Mark Pack for the data)

    Fantastic chart thank you (and thanks to Mark Pack)

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2015
    Unless I'm mistaken, the logic of the markets is that without scotland, labour have little hope of getting over the 325 line regardless of the polls - whereas the tories have a chance (with a swingback in england), of getting over the line.

    To follow that logic through, if we take scotland away completely, what % lead would labour need over the tories in E&W to get 325 seats?

    6%? 8%?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "A West Midlands garage is thought to be selling the cheapest fuel in Britain – with a litre of petrol costing less than £1.
    And as oil prices continue to plunge, the RAC said it anticipated the cost of fuel at forecourts across the country to drop even further.
    Savvy motorists at The Harvest forecourt in the Maypole area of Birmingham can fill up their tanks at 99.7p a litre, which has seen demand at the garage’s pumps soar."


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11338763/Does-this-garage-sell-the-cheapest-petrol-in-Britain.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Something like that, in the range 5-8%.
    Pong said:

    Unless I'm mistaken, the logic of the markets is that without scotland, labour have little hope of getting over the 325 line regardless of the polls - whereas the tories have a chance (with a swingback in england), of getting over the line.

    To follow that logic through, if we take scotland away completely, what % lead would labour need over the tories in E&W to get 325 seats?

    6%? 8%?

  • numbercrunchernumbercruncher Posts: 136
    edited January 2015
    Pong said:

    Unless I'm mistaken, the logic of the markets is that without scotland, labour have little hope of getting over the 325 line regardless of the polls - whereas the tories have a chance (with a swingback in england), of getting over the line.

    To follow that logic through, if we take scotland away completely, what % lead would labour need over the tories in E&W to get 325 seats?

    6%? 8%?

    It has many, many moving parts, but right now I'd say it's sitting at about 7.5%...
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Majority % have been around there for a while, but the most seats betting only just came into line...

    Long-term polling chart anyone? Here are the monthly averages of every opinion poll for the last 35 years (big shout out to Mark Pack for the data)

    Fantastic chart thank you (and thanks to Mark Pack)

    No problem, thanks!
  • Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    What we need to do is either get them to leave the faith, to become notional Muslims without any true belief, or to get them to adopt them liberal Christian position that their scripture is not always literally true and certain parts should be overlooked. This will require a loud public debate where sacred cows are challenged, things that deserve mocking are mocked, and inconvenient truths about Islam are thrown in their faces. Telling people "well you're not one of the active terrorists, so all your other beliefs are fine" is not going to work.

    I am very happy to see scriptural literalism challenged, and who better to do it than someone called Socrates? Once you have achieved all that, do you wish to join me in persuading the good people of the United States that the Bible is not literally true, that it's OK to teach evolution in schools, that abortion should be legal and that Obama is not the antichrist?
    People who believe in creationism or wish to restrict abortion are no danger to me or mine.
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
    It would be democratically possible by Constitutional amendment.
    Theoretically - in the same way that people on Benefits can theoretically dine at the Ritz every day. You would need a two thirds majority in both houses/.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,473

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    What we need to do is either get them to leave the faith, to become notional Muslims without any true belief, or to get them to adopt them liberal Christian position that their scripture is not always literally true and certain parts should be overlooked. This will require a loud public debate where sacred cows are challenged, things that deserve mocking are mocked, and inconvenient truths about Islam are thrown in their faces. Telling people "well you're not one of the active terrorists, so all your other beliefs are fine" is not going to work.

    I am very happy to see scriptural literalism challenged, and who better to do it than someone called Socrates? Once you have achieved all that, do you wish to join me in persuading the good people of the United States that the Bible is not literally true, that it's OK to teach evolution in schools, that abortion should be legal and that Obama is not the antichrist?
    People who believe in creationism or wish to restrict abortion are no danger to me or mine.
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
    Yes and no. I agree with your broad point: I think the UK approach to abortion law, where abortion was legalised by a straight vote in the Commons, was preferable to the situation in the US. I think you have highlighted one of the dangers of a system like that in the US that is so dependent on a constitutional document.

    That said, abortion in much of the US was legalised on a state by state basis by legislatures prior to Roe vs. Wade, and likewise has been limited by subsequent state legislature action in some states since. Moreover, there are democratic mechanisms by which Roe vs. Wade can be overturned: in the short term, the Supreme Court members are appointed by elected politicians; in the long term, Roe vs. Wade could be overturned by a constitutional amendment. (The challenge for democratic anti-abortionists in the US is that only a minority of the US electorate actually want abortion to be illegal in all circumstances -- 21% in a recent poll.)

    But, yeah, I can go with a take-home message of: make sure you have democratic mechanisms whereby people can express outrage.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @bondegesou @Paul_Mid_Beds

    Unfortunately both sides of SCOTUS have used their power to pass stuff not in the Constitution. Liberals, in the case of banning late stage abortion, and conservatives, in the case of removing campaign finance limits.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,473

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    What we need to do is either get them to leave the faith, to become notional Muslims without any true belief, or to get them to adopt them liberal Christian position that their scripture is not always literally true and certain parts should be overlooked. This will require a loud public debate where sacred cows are challenged, things that deserve mocking are mocked, and inconvenient truths about Islam are thrown in their faces. Telling people "well you're not one of the active terrorists, so all your other beliefs are fine" is not going to work.

    I am very happy to see scriptural literalism challenged, and who better to do it than someone called Socrates? Once you have achieved all that, do you wish to join me in persuading the good people of the United States that the Bible is not literally true, that it's OK to teach evolution in schools, that abortion should be legal and that Obama is not the antichrist?
    People who believe in creationism or wish to restrict abortion are no danger to me or mine.
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
    It would be democratically possible by Constitutional amendment.
    Theoretically - in the same way that people on Benefits can theoretically dine at the Ritz every day. You would need a two thirds majority in both houses/.
    It's difficult, but not impossible. They got the 18th amendment passed!

    Hmmm... there were 3 amendments in the 19-teens, one in the twenties, two in the thirties, one in the fifties, three in the sixties, one in the seventies, and one in the nineties. About time for another one. Time to re-start the campaign for the District of Columbia Voting Rights Amendment (failed in 1985 after insufficient states ratified it by a deadline)!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Assuming around 15 losses to SNP, Labour would need to be winning seats as low as 80 on their target list such as Stafford and Stourbridge. Seems out of reach this time round and around 20 seats below where Ashcroft found the gains are close to stopping. Limiting the number of losses in Scotland to a handful would start to bring them back into it.

    The Conservatives would need an almighty late swing to get a majority, considering the Conservatives wouldn't be taking votes directly back from Labour, it'd take a total Lib Dem/UKIP collapse for them to get over 323.

    Very, very unlikely versus very, very unlikely.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    What we need to do is either get them to leave the faith, to become notional Muslims without any true belief, or to get them to adopt them liberal Christian position that their scripture is not always literally true and certain parts should be overlooked. This will require a loud public debate where sacred cows are challenged, things that deserve mocking are mocked, and inconvenient truths about Islam are thrown in their faces. Telling people "well you're not one of the active terrorists, so all your other beliefs are fine" is not going to work.

    I am very happy to see scriptural literalism challenged, and who better to do it than someone called Socrates? Once you have achieved all that, do you wish to join me in persuading the good people of the United States that the Bible is not literally true, that it's OK to teach evolution in schools, that abortion should be legal and that Obama is not the antichrist?
    People who believe in creationism or wish to restrict abortion are no danger to me or mine.
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
    It would be democratically possible by Constitutional amendment.
    Theoretically - in the same way that people on Benefits can theoretically dine at the Ritz every day. You would need a two thirds majority in both houses/.
    It's difficult, but not impossible. They got the 18th amendment passed!

    Hmmm... there were 3 amendments in the 19-teens, one in the twenties, two in the thirties, one in the fifties, three in the sixties, one in the seventies, and one in the nineties. About time for another one. Time to re-start the campaign for the District of Columbia Voting Rights Amendment (failed in 1985 after insufficient states ratified it by a deadline)!
    For me the best thing to do with the District of Columbia is to annex everything except Capitol Hill, the Mall and the White House into Maryland. That would also give them a level of government at the state level, rather than the appalling direct rule by Congress.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Some great discussions today. Peace to all.

    Must tune-in to Foyle's War to see the 'Pool stand in for 1940s London again...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Artist said:

    Assuming around 15 losses to SNP, Labour would need to be winning seats as low as 80 on their target list such as Stafford and Stourbridge. Seems out of reach this time round and around 20 seats below where Ashcroft found the gains are close to stopping. Limiting the number of losses in Scotland to a handful would start to bring them back into it.

    The Conservatives would need an almighty late swing to get a majority, considering the Conservatives wouldn't be taking votes directly back from Labour, it'd take a total Lib Dem/UKIP collapse for them to get over 323.

    Very, very unlikely versus very, very unlikely.

    "considering the Conservatives wouldn't be taking votes directly back from Labour"

    Why on earth not? The Tories lost plenty of "votes" to Labour between 2009 and 2010. Not that I think it will happen but it's a sight more likely than Labour's route to a majority in my book.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited January 2015
    OT What is the first Stalking Song? I love this one by Clarence *Frogman* Henry - it's brilliant 1940?https://play.spotify.com/track/29jAXKIfve4dACmcKZyZgg
    I've been calling every night and day
    I've been so blue since you went away
    You know I'm lonesome, baby, for your touch
    I guess I love you just a little too much

    I wrote a letter to the FBI
    I hired a hundred local private eyes
    You know it wasn't just a teenage crush
    I guess I love you just a little too much

    I called a man who got a TV show
    And if he see you, then he'll let me know
    I am so sorry that we had a fuss
    I guess I love you just a little too much

    My tears are flowing up and down the street
    Ain't you ashamed of what you're doing to me
    You know I'm lonesome, baby, for your touch
    I guess I love you just a little too much

    I've been calling every night and day
    I've been so blue since you went away
    You know I'm lonesome, baby, for your touch
    I guess I love you just a little too much
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Dan Hodges and others who have criticised Nigel Farage for describing a "fifth column" now look pretty stupid after a video has come out of a citizen of France pledging allegiance to the Islamic State.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Artist said:

    Assuming around 15 losses to SNP, Labour would need to be winning seats as low as 80 on their target list such as Stafford and Stourbridge. Seems out of reach this time round and around 20 seats below where Ashcroft found the gains are close to stopping. Limiting the number of losses in Scotland to a handful would start to bring them back into it.

    The Conservatives would need an almighty late swing to get a majority, considering the Conservatives wouldn't be taking votes directly back from Labour, it'd take a total Lib Dem/UKIP collapse for them to get over 323.

    Very, very unlikely versus very, very unlikely.

    "considering the Conservatives wouldn't be taking votes directly back from Labour"

    Why on earth not? The Tories lost plenty of "votes" to Labour between 2009 and 2010. Not that I think it will happen but it's a sight more likely than Labour's route to a majority in my book.
    I think people are totally missing this possibility. We are not talking labour supporters or socialist we are talking about people who have voted or might have voted Labour.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited January 2015
    Socrates said:

    @bondegesou @Paul_Mid_Beds

    Unfortunately both sides of SCOTUS have used their power to pass stuff not in the Constitution. Liberals, in the case of banning late stage abortion, and conservatives, in the case of removing campaign finance limits.

    Not to mention the SCOTUS voting on party lines to resolve the hanging chads fiasco.

    Makes me very glad parliament can just abrogate any such decision by our supreme court by passing an act of parliament setting it aside.

    I also wish Blair hadn't called it supreme court. Parliament is the surpreme court and even has the power (not used for many years ) to have citizens taken away and executed without trial by passing a bill of attainder.

    It is the fact that unelected people in Brussels can pass laws in this country that makes me want to leave the EU, regardless of whether they are any good or not.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    ....

    ...
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
    Yes and no. I agree with your broad point: I think the UK approach to abortion law, where abortion was legalised by a straight vote in the Commons, was preferable to the situation in the US. I think you have highlighted one of the dangers of a system like that in the US that is so dependent on a constitutional document.

    That said, abortion in much of the US was legalised on a state by state basis by legislatures prior to Roe vs. Wade, and likewise has been limited by subsequent state legislature action in some states since. Moreover, there are democratic mechanisms by which Roe vs. Wade can be overturned: in the short term, the Supreme Court members are appointed by elected politicians; in the long term, Roe vs. Wade could be overturned by a constitutional amendment. (The challenge for democratic anti-abortionists in the US is that only a minority of the US electorate actually want abortion to be illegal in all circumstances -- 21% in a recent poll.)

    But, yeah, I can go with a take-home message of: make sure you have democratic mechanisms whereby people can express outrage.
    The point about Roe v Wade and other rulings is it leave the issue of abortion to the States... eg the USA is a Federal structure ... but it sets broad rules on what the States can legally do within their discretion. The USA is a devolved Federal structure and anyone interested in any sort of devolved federal structure needs to consider what is devolved and under what constraints to the requirements of the whole. This seems to be a subject upon which Jim Murphy and the Labour Party need to brush up on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    Frontline anecdote department after a holiday break: a small Kipper uptick detactable at both major parties' expense, otherwise nothing moving (I estimate that we're about 7 points ahead). Very polarised and very few don't knows. We went the entire weekend without meeting a single LibDem or Green. Nobody mentioned Paris, Islamism or the like, but it's possible that it was behind some of the new Kippers? Actually few people commented on any issues at all - they were just instantly and firmly Labour or Tory.

    Finally met an indignant voter (usually Broxtowe voters are amiable even when they're anti) - "Of COURSE I'm not voting Labour! You betrayed the country! I was Tory last time and this time I'm bloody voting UKIP, that'll show you!" I smiled mysteriously, and he looked a bit puzzled. Must work on a shock-horror expression.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited January 2015

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    ....

    ...
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
    Yes and no. I agree with your broad point: I think the UK approach to abortion law, where abortion was legalised by a straight vote in the Commons, was preferable to the situation in the US. I think you have highlighted one of the dangers of a system like that in the US that is so dependent on a constitutional document.

    That said, abortion in much of the US was legalised on a state by state basis by legislatures prior to Roe vs. Wade, and likewise has been limited by subsequent state legislature action in some states since. Moreover, there are democratic mechanisms by which Roe vs. Wade can be overturned: in the short term, the Supreme Court members are appointed by elected politicians; in the long term, Roe vs. Wade could be overturned by a constitutional amendment. (The challenge for democratic anti-abortionists in the US is that only a minority of the US electorate actually want abortion to be illegal in all circumstances -- 21% in a recent poll.)

    But, yeah, I can go with a take-home message of: make sure you have democratic mechanisms whereby people can express outrage.
    The point about Roe v Wade and other rulings is it leave the issue of abortion to the States... eg the USA is a Federal structure ... but it sets broad rules on what the States can legally do within their discretion. The USA is a devolved Federal structure and anyone interested in any sort of devolved federal structure needs to consider what is devolved and under what constraints to the requirements of the whole. This seems to be a subject upon which Jim Murphy and the Labour Party need to brush up on.
    Interestingly - and perhaps ironically - elements in the Labour Party, including Messrs Blair and Murphy, were and are bitterly opposed to devolution of abortion policy to Scotland. Why this should be I do not know. Possibly they feared loss of votes in some areas.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-opposed-devolution-of-abortion.26176374
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Frontline anecdote department after a holiday break: a small Kipper uptick detactable at both major parties' expense, otherwise nothing moving (I estimate that we're about 7 points ahead). Very polarised and very few don't knows. We went the entire weekend without meeting a single LibDem or Green. Nobody mentioned Paris, Islamism or the like, but it's possible that it was behind some of the new Kippers? Actually few people commented on any issues at all - they were just instantly and firmly Labour or Tory.

    Finally met an indignant voter (usually Broxtowe voters are amiable even when they're anti) - "Of COURSE I'm not voting Labour! You betrayed the country! I was Tory last time and this time I'm bloody voting UKIP, that'll show you!" I smiled mysteriously, and he looked a bit puzzled. Must work on a shock-horror expression.

    You should throw up the sign of the cross or something - they want to horrify you by their voting UKIP, acting as though you find them unholy for doing do should be amusing and please them as well.

    Perhaps not a sensible approach though, you probably know your business better.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,182
    kle4 said:

    Frontline anecdote department after a holiday break: a small Kipper uptick detactable at both major parties' expense, otherwise nothing moving (I estimate that we're about 7 points ahead). Very polarised and very few don't knows. We went the entire weekend without meeting a single LibDem or Green. Nobody mentioned Paris, Islamism or the like, but it's possible that it was behind some of the new Kippers? Actually few people commented on any issues at all - they were just instantly and firmly Labour or Tory.

    Finally met an indignant voter (usually Broxtowe voters are amiable even when they're anti) - "Of COURSE I'm not voting Labour! You betrayed the country! I was Tory last time and this time I'm bloody voting UKIP, that'll show you!" I smiled mysteriously, and he looked a bit puzzled. Must work on a shock-horror expression.

    You should throw up the sign of the cross or something - they want to horrify you by their voting UKIP, acting as though you find them unholy for doing do should be amusing and please them as well.

    Perhaps not a sensible approach though, you probably know your business better.
    Isn't that the response of a DUP canvasser on encountering an Alliance Party voter?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Jonathan Chait says it well:

    In this case, the content of Charlie Hebdo’s work is not the issue. The issue is the right of publication. Given the fact that violent extremists threaten to kill any journalist who violates their interpretation of Islam, establishing the freedom (I argue) requires committing the blasphemy. To argue, as some have, that the threat is wrong, but that journalists should avoid blasphemy out of prudence allows the extremists to set the rules.

    “No mainstream western cartoonist would dare put their name on an anti-Jewish cartoon, even if done for satire purposes, because doing so would instantly and permanently destroy their career, at least … " writes Greenwald, “Why aren’t Douthat, Chait, Yglesias and their like-minded free speech crusaders calling for publication of anti-Semitic material in solidarity, or as a means of standing up to this repression?” Well, the answer is very simple: because nobody is murdering artists who publish anti-Semitic cartoons.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    ....

    ...
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
    Yes and no. I agree with your broad point: I think the UK approach to abortion law, where abortion was legalised by a straight vote in the Commons, was preferable to the situation in the US. I think you have highlighted one of the dangers of a system like that in the US that is so dependent on a constitutional document.

    ....

    But, yeah, I can go with a take-home message of: make sure you have democratic mechanisms whereby people can express outrage.
    The point about Roe v Wade and other rulings is it leave the issue of abortion to the States... eg the USA is a Federal structure ... but it sets broad rules on what the States can legally do within their discretion. The USA is a devolved Federal structure and anyone interested in any sort of devolved federal structure needs to consider what is devolved and under what constraints to the requirements of the whole. This seems to be a subject upon which Jim Murphy and the Labour Party need to brush up on.
    Interestingly - and perhaps ironically - elements in the Labour Party, including Messrs Blair and Murphy, were and are bitterly opposed to devolution of abortion policy to Scotland. Why this should be I do not know. Possibly they feared loss of votes in some areas.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-opposed-devolution-of-abortion.26176374
    I would suggest it should be national wide and not devolved because of course you get the sad prospect of women moving across the border to have the abortion. We are one country and devolution should be related to local matters. I can see that others would not regard that as an issue but to me it would just reek of hypocrisy to ban abortion but simply see it exported to England.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Now may be a good time to reshare my blog post from last year on possible routes to a Conservative majority:

    http://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Socrates said:

    Jonathan Chait says it well:

    In this case, the content of Charlie Hebdo’s work is not the issue. The issue is the right of publication. Given the fact that violent extremists threaten to kill any journalist who violates their interpretation of Islam, establishing the freedom (I argue) requires committing the blasphemy. To argue, as some have, that the threat is wrong, but that journalists should avoid blasphemy out of prudence allows the extremists to set the rules.

    “No mainstream western cartoonist would dare put their name on an anti-Jewish cartoon, even if done for satire purposes, because doing so would instantly and permanently destroy their career, at least … " writes Greenwald, “Why aren’t Douthat, Chait, Yglesias and their like-minded free speech crusaders calling for publication of anti-Semitic material in solidarity, or as a means of standing up to this repression?” Well, the answer is very simple: because nobody is murdering artists who publish anti-Semitic cartoons.

    Surely there have been Jewish humourists who have satirised Jewish culture, but satire should not imply anti anything. Satirising muslim culture should not imply anti-muslim motives.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Plato said:

    OT What is the first Stalking Song? I love this one by Clarence *Frogman* Henry - it's brilliant 1940?https://play.spotify.com/track/29jAXKIfve4dACmcKZyZgg

    I've been calling every night and day
    I've been so blue since you went away
    You know I'm lonesome, baby, for your touch
    I guess I love you just a little too much

    I wrote a letter to the FBI
    I hired a hundred local private eyes
    You know it wasn't just a teenage crush
    I guess I love you just a little too much

    I called a man who got a TV show
    And if he see you, then he'll let me know
    I am so sorry that we had a fuss
    I guess I love you just a little too much

    My tears are flowing up and down the street
    Ain't you ashamed of what you're doing to me
    You know I'm lonesome, baby, for your touch
    I guess I love you just a little too much

    I've been calling every night and day
    I've been so blue since you went away
    You know I'm lonesome, baby, for your touch
    I guess I love you just a little too much
    youtube.com/watch?v=6nAMFWDuDEI

    The more you ignore me
    The closer I get
    You're wasting your time

    I will be
    In the bar
    With my head
    On the bar
    I am now
    A central part
    Of your mind's landscape
    Whether you care
    Or do not
    Yeah, I've made up your mind


    Beware
    I bear more grudges
    Than lonely high court judges
    When you sleep
    I will creep
    Into your thoughts
    Like a bad debt
    That you can't pay
    Take the easy way
    And give in
    Yeah, and let me in
    It's war

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    perdix said:

    Socrates said:

    Jonathan Chait says it well:

    In this case, the content of Charlie Hebdo’s work is not the issue. The issue is the right of publication. Given the fact that violent extremists threaten to kill any journalist who violates their interpretation of Islam, establishing the freedom (I argue) requires committing the blasphemy. To argue, as some have, that the threat is wrong, but that journalists should avoid blasphemy out of prudence allows the extremists to set the rules.

    “No mainstream western cartoonist would dare put their name on an anti-Jewish cartoon, even if done for satire purposes, because doing so would instantly and permanently destroy their career, at least … " writes Greenwald, “Why aren’t Douthat, Chait, Yglesias and their like-minded free speech crusaders calling for publication of anti-Semitic material in solidarity, or as a means of standing up to this repression?” Well, the answer is very simple: because nobody is murdering artists who publish anti-Semitic cartoons.

    Surely there have been Jewish humourists who have satirised Jewish culture, but satire should not imply anti anything. Satirising muslim culture should not imply anti-muslim motives.

    Nobody is talking about Woody Allen type of humour. How many satirists are you aware who directly poked fun at David or Moses ?

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    dr_spyn said:
    Of course not; not until Le Pen come bursting through the front door. Perhaps not even then.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Frontline anecdote department after a holiday break: a small Kipper uptick detactable at both major parties' expense, otherwise nothing moving (I estimate that we're about 7 points ahead). Very polarised and very few don't knows. We went the entire weekend without meeting a single LibDem or Green. Nobody mentioned Paris, Islamism or the like, but it's possible that it was behind some of the new Kippers? Actually few people commented on any issues at all - they were just instantly and firmly Labour or Tory.

    Finally met an indignant voter (usually Broxtowe voters are amiable even when they're anti) - "Of COURSE I'm not voting Labour! You betrayed the country! I was Tory last time and this time I'm bloody voting UKIP, that'll show you!" I smiled mysteriously, and he looked a bit puzzled. Must work on a shock-horror expression.

    You should have thanked him/her for intending to give you half his/her vote !
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    JohnO: You are correct that I did promise you some ideas about what governments might do.

    I haven't because I have been busy this weekend with offspring returning to university.

    I did in fact give some suggestions in other posts but anyway here are some suggestions, off the top of my head.

    Fundamentally, it is not for the British government to reform Islam but what it can do is make clear what the proper role of Islam is within British society. Essentially, it is one of many religions which people are free to follow or not. It has no political role. And it is that latter aspect which I think causes problems. Islam has always from the start been about religious and political power and seen these as indivisible. And it was created at a time when the very idea of criticising those in power (across the medieval Christian world as well) was incomprehensible. So it finds it very difficult to come to terms with being purely a religion and with criticism from the outside and many of the behaviours which we find objectionable come from this expansionist aspect promulgated by extremists e.g. the belief that it should be accorded respect, the belief that nothing should be done to offend it (or its believers), the idea of a Muslim area (e.g. when we saw John Reid being assailed by persons shouting that he had no right to be there or the "alcohol-free" zone stickers in East London), the idea that where a preponderance of Muslims lived the women have to be veiled etc.

    So we need to make clear that freedom of religion in Britain means the freedom to follow a religion or not but that it emphatically does not mean that you can impose it on others or expect others to respect what you believe (as opposed to your right to believe whatever it is you want). And we need to make it clear that where there is a clash between religious belief and the law of the land the latter prevails.

    Part 2 to follow shortly



  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    edited January 2015
    Part 2

    1. Curtail immigration from countries with terrorist/extremist issues, principally in Britain's case, Pakistan, Somalia etc and reintroduction of the primary purpose rule which has too often been used to pressurise young British women into being used as a vehicle for immigration or forced young men into marrying women with little idea of Britain and British values.

    2. Limitations on foreign imams in mosques here. We have little hope of encouraging the development of an Islam in Britain in tune with British values if those preaching and teaching in them are steeped in Saudi-inspired Wahabbism.

    3. No Islamic schools which do not follow the national curriculum in full. Any whiff of segregation/not teaching girls fully/teaching of anti-Semitism/trips to Saudi Arabia/use of Saudi textbooks etc - and they do not get a licence. Ditto for madrassahs. No opting out of learning about gay rights, the Holocaust, for instance.

    4. I would seek to prevent any funding of teaching institutions of any kind by money directly or indirectly from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other problematic countries.

    5. Crackdown on Islamic charities, which are sometimes a front for the funding of terrorism.

    6. Put pressure on / shame those institutions which provide a home / space / support for hate preachers e.g. UCL, the Quakers and others. How can a liberal university tolerate segregation of men and women and be taken seriously? There are plenty of ways of putting social pressures on such places such that they start to view such behaviour as similar to inviting the BNP to High Table.

    7. Shun those who cosy up to hate preachers and the like. We should treat such people in the same way as we do those who excuse Nazism, for instance. They need to be put beyond the pale through social pressure.

    8. Be more robust about using the law to prosecute such people when they do incite violence. When someone encourages someone to behead others, I find it hard to see that an offence has not been committed.

    9. Repeal the Religious Hatred provisions.

    10. Abolish any use of sharia law. You cannot have two systems of law in a country and particularly not one which has been declared to be incompatible with the ECHR.

    11. Stop dealing with community leaders - an approach which reeks of colonial condescension to the natives. It also encourages those - usually male - who purport to speak for a community and use such a position to boost their own power, at the expense of individuals within the community. We have one man / one woman / one vote. We do not need to mediate with those people via community leaders. This is Britain not some desert in the 19th century.

    12. Stop using silly language such as "Islamophobia". It is a weasel word designed to stop criticism. Where Muslims are attacked , their attackers should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

    13. Ban the burqa. Ban religious wear for girls under the age of majority.



  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Part 3

    Above all, say to Muslims: we think of you as British citizens and we expect you to think of yourselves as British citizens with your homes and futures here. You are equal citizens and are entitled to the full protection of British law. But that also means that you have responsibilities and duties as British citizens. And one of those means that you must stop thinking of yourselves as Pakistani or Algerian or whatever and have to fully embrace being British rather than having your head / heart somewhere else and only your body here. You can be whatever religion you want but as far as we - and your fellow Britons are concerned - this is your private affair. If it means more to you to be living in an Islamic state then that is your choice. But what you cannot do is seek to create an Islamic state of Britain or in Britain and nor can you expect others to accept or abide by the tenets of the faith you have chosen. If you want tolerance you have to give it - and to things/people you may not like. But do not expect us to tolerate the intolerable.

    How about those for starters?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yaohnanen is a village on the island of Tanna in Vanuatu where Prince Philip is revered as a divine being:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Philip_Movement
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaohnanen
  • Meanwhile in Scotland...

    OK so we’ve now had a full run of YouGov Westminster polls since the Scottish Labour leadership election, so we can properly take stock of what’s happened. The short answer is not very much. Compared with the ten polls right before the Labour leadership election, the swing from SNP to LAB is a little over 1%:

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/554384952830078976
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pong said:

    Unless I'm mistaken, the logic of the markets is that without scotland, labour have little hope of getting over the 325 line regardless of the polls - whereas the tories have a chance (with a swingback in england), of getting over the line.

    To follow that logic through, if we take scotland away completely, what % lead would labour need over the tories in E&W to get 325 seats?

    6%? 8%?

    If we "take Scotland away". you are only left with 591 seats. Therefore majority is 296.#

    Or, on the other hand, if you were meaning Labour were to win zero seats in Scotland [ and NI ]. Labour currently stands to win 290 seats on purely regional swings according to polls in E & W.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    surbiton said:

    perdix said:

    Socrates said:

    Jonathan Chait says it well:

    In this case, the content of Charlie Hebdo’s work is not the issue. The issue is the right of publication. Given the fact that violent extremists threaten to kill any journalist who violates their interpretation of Islam, establishing the freedom (I argue) requires committing the blasphemy. To argue, as some have, that the threat is wrong, but that journalists should avoid blasphemy out of prudence allows the extremists to set the rules.

    “No mainstream western cartoonist would dare put their name on an anti-Jewish cartoon, even if done for satire purposes, because doing so would instantly and permanently destroy their career, at least … " writes Greenwald, “Why aren’t Douthat, Chait, Yglesias and their like-minded free speech crusaders calling for publication of anti-Semitic material in solidarity, or as a means of standing up to this repression?” Well, the answer is very simple: because nobody is murdering artists who publish anti-Semitic cartoons.

    Surely there have been Jewish humourists who have satirised Jewish culture, but satire should not imply anti anything. Satirising muslim culture should not imply anti-muslim motives.

    Nobody is talking about Woody Allen type of humour. How many satirists are you aware who directly poked fun at David or Moses ?

    G-d: And remember Moses, in the laws of keeping Kosher, never cook a calf in its mother's milk. It is cruel.
    Moses: Ohhhhhh! So you are saying we should never eat milk and meat together.

    G-d: No, what I'm saying is, never cook a calf in its mother's milk.
    Moses: Oh, Lord forgive my ignorance! What you are really saying is we should wait six hours after eating meat to eat milk so the two are not in our stomachs.

    G-d: No, Moses, what I'm saying is, never cook a calf in it's mother's milk!!!
    Moses: Oh, Lord! Please don't strike me down for my stupidity! What you mean is we should have a separate set of dishes for milk and a separate set for meat and if we make a mistake we have to bury that dish outside...

    G-d: Moses, do whatever you want....

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    God may indeed ride a Harley Davidson, but Moses preferred British bikes.
    "and the roar of his triumph was heard all over Israel"

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    ....

    ...
    People who wish to restrict abortion have been known to be violent.
    so have people trying to restrict wars.

    When something utterly outrages people and they have no consitutional remedy, they are likely to take the law in their own hands.

    While in the UK, abortion was legalised by parliament and can be abolished if people elect MPs that so wish this, in the USA it was foisted on everyone by unelected judges interpreting the constition in an egregious way, with no way of overturning it democratically.
    Yes and no. I agree with your broad point: I think the UK approach to abortion law, where abortion was legalised by a straight vote in the Commons, was preferable to the situation in the US. I think you have highlighted one of the dangers of a system like that in the US that is so dependent on a constitutional document.

    ....

    But, yeah, I can go with a take-home message of: make sure you have democratic mechanisms whereby people can express outrage.
    The point about Roe v Wade and other rulings is it leave the issue of abortion to the States... eg the USA is a Federal structure ... but it sets broad rules on what the States can legally do within their discretion. The USA is a devolved Federal structure and anyone interested in any sort of devolved federal structure needs to consider what is devolved and under what constraints to the requirements of the whole. This seems to be a subject upon which Jim Murphy and the Labour Party need to brush up on.
    Interestingly - and perhaps ironically - elements in the Labour Party, including Messrs Blair and Murphy, were and are bitterly opposed to devolution of abortion policy to Scotland. Why this should be I do not know. Possibly they feared loss of votes in some areas.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-opposed-devolution-of-abortion.26176374
    I would suggest it should be national wide and not devolved because of course you get the sad prospect of women moving across the border to have the abortion. We are one country and devolution should be related to local matters. I can see that others would not regard that as an issue but to me it would just reek of hypocrisy to ban abortion but simply see it exported to England.
    You mean 'UK wide' obviously.

    But why should London always dictate ethics and policy? Why abortion and not, say, cancer treatment, or education? And why should that pair of Labour politicians make that decision?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited January 2015
    If the big conclusion is that its going to be very tight, then that seems at last to be a straightforward and fair assessment of the situation. I guess we won't need any more "Why Dave cant win threads", because he can win.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,473
    http://youtu.be/hwq8Bwr9wUg

    Non-Muslims dare not enter Birmingham, says Fox News.
  • If the big conclusion is that its going to be very tight, then that seems at last to be a straightforward and fair assessment of the situation. I guess we won't need any more "Why Dave cant win threads", because he can win.

    No, if Labour and Conservative are very close, then it is very unlikely that one will be more than (LD + UKIP + SNP + PC + Green + NI) seats ahead of the other.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,823
    Cyclefree said:

    Part 3

    Above all, say to Muslims: we think of you as British citizens and we expect you to think of yourselves as British citizens with your homes and futures here. You are equal citizens and are entitled to the full protection of British law. But that also means that you have responsibilities and duties as British citizens. And one of those means that you must stop thinking of yourselves as Pakistani or Algerian or whatever and have to fully embrace being British rather than having your head / heart somewhere else and only your body here. You can be whatever religion you want but as far as we - and your fellow Britons are concerned - this is your private affair. If it means more to you to be living in an Islamic state then that is your choice. But what you cannot do is seek to create an Islamic state of Britain or in Britain and nor can you expect others to accept or abide by the tenets of the faith you have chosen. If you want tolerance you have to give it - and to things/people you may not like. But do not expect us to tolerate the intolerable.

    How about those for starters?

    Except 'saying' something to someone is the least effective behaviour changer known to man. If it were not, we could 'tell' people not to commit crime and they wouldn't. You have to reinforce the behaviour you want and disincentivise the behaviour you don't. That's what we need suggestions for.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    surbiton said:

    perdix said:

    Socrates said:

    Jonathan Chait says it well:

    In this case, the content of Charlie Hebdo’s work is not the issue. The issue is the right of publication. Given the fact that violent extremists threaten to kill any journalist who violates their interpretation of Islam, establishing the freedom (I argue) requires committing the blasphemy. To argue, as some have, that the threat is wrong, but that journalists should avoid blasphemy out of prudence allows the extremists to set the rules.

    “No mainstream western cartoonist would dare put their name on an anti-Jewish cartoon, even if done for satire purposes, because doing so would instantly and permanently destroy their career, at least … " writes Greenwald, “Why aren’t Douthat, Chait, Yglesias and their like-minded free speech crusaders calling for publication of anti-Semitic material in solidarity, or as a means of standing up to this repression?” Well, the answer is very simple: because nobody is murdering artists who publish anti-Semitic cartoons.

    Surely there have been Jewish humourists who have satirised Jewish culture, but satire should not imply anti anything. Satirising muslim culture should not imply anti-muslim motives.

    Nobody is talking about Woody Allen type of humour. How many satirists are you aware who directly poked fun at David or Moses ?

    Joseph Heller. Almost certainly, other Jewish writers.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    http://youtu.be/hwq8Bwr9wUg

    Non-Muslims dare not enter Birmingham, says Fox News.

    Oh dear and I am off to curry mile tomorrow night to meet a fellow non-muslim wonder if i should cancel
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    perdix said:

    Socrates said:

    Jonathan Chait says it well:

    In this case, the content of Charlie Hebdo’s work is not the issue. The issue is the right of publication. Given the fact that violent extremists threaten to kill any journalist who violates their interpretation of Islam, establishing the freedom (I argue) requires committing the blasphemy. To argue, as some have, that the threat is wrong, but that journalists should avoid blasphemy out of prudence allows the extremists to set the rules.

    “No mainstream western cartoonist would dare put their name on an anti-Jewish cartoon, even if done for satire purposes, because doing so would instantly and permanently destroy their career, at least … " writes Greenwald, “Why aren’t Douthat, Chait, Yglesias and their like-minded free speech crusaders calling for publication of anti-Semitic material in solidarity, or as a means of standing up to this repression?” Well, the answer is very simple: because nobody is murdering artists who publish anti-Semitic cartoons.

    Surely there have been Jewish humourists who have satirised Jewish culture, but satire should not imply anti anything. Satirising muslim culture should not imply anti-muslim motives.

    Nobody is talking about Woody Allen type of humour. How many satirists are you aware who directly poked fun at David or Moses ?

    Joseph Heller. Almost certainly, other Jewish writers.

    From the looks of some reviews, Ridley Scott will do something about it too.
  • http://youtu.be/hwq8Bwr9wUg

    Non-Muslims dare not enter Birmingham, says Fox News.

    Oh dear and I am off to curry mile tomorrow night to meet a fellow non-muslim wonder if i should cancel
    Before the Muslims took control of Birmingham, the Spaghetti Junction was known as the Sausage Junction.

    To be fair, most people try and avoid going to Birmingham since well before the Muslims took over.
  • Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    perdix said:

    Socrates said:

    Jonathan Chait says it well:

    In this case, the content of Charlie Hebdo’s work is not the issue. The issue is the right of publication. Given the fact that violent extremists threaten to kill any journalist who violates their interpretation of Islam, establishing the freedom (I argue) requires committing the blasphemy. To argue, as some have, that the threat is wrong, but that journalists should avoid blasphemy out of prudence allows the extremists to set the rules.

    “No mainstream western cartoonist would dare put their name on an anti-Jewish cartoon, even if done for satire purposes, because doing so would instantly and permanently destroy their career, at least … " writes Greenwald, “Why aren’t Douthat, Chait, Yglesias and their like-minded free speech crusaders calling for publication of anti-Semitic material in solidarity, or as a means of standing up to this repression?” Well, the answer is very simple: because nobody is murdering artists who publish anti-Semitic cartoons.

    Surely there have been Jewish humourists who have satirised Jewish culture, but satire should not imply anti anything. Satirising muslim culture should not imply anti-muslim motives.

    Nobody is talking about Woody Allen type of humour. How many satirists are you aware who directly poked fun at David or Moses ?

    Joseph Heller. Almost certainly, other Jewish writers.

    Mordecai Richler.
  • Actually Sausage Junction sounds like a bar in The Village or Soho
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Cyclefree said:

    Part 3

    Above all, say to Muslims: we think of you as British citizens and we expect you to think of yourselves as British citizens with your homes and futures here. You are equal citizens and are entitled to the full protection of British law. But that also means that you have responsibilities and duties as British citizens. And one of those means that you must stop thinking of yourselves as Pakistani or Algerian or whatever and have to fully embrace being British rather than having your head / heart somewhere else and only your body here. You can be whatever religion you want but as far as we - and your fellow Britons are concerned - this is your private affair. If it means more to you to be living in an Islamic state then that is your choice. But what you cannot do is seek to create an Islamic state of Britain or in Britain and nor can you expect others to accept or abide by the tenets of the faith you have chosen. If you want tolerance you have to give it - and to things/people you may not like. But do not expect us to tolerate the intolerable.

    How about those for starters?

    Nice words - but I read recently that 90% of Imams in the UK come from abroad - and the tenets of Islam will not allow adherents to change their beliefs. One of the problems is that the interpretation of their beliefs inevitably lead to a small number of people committing violent acts to promote Islam. Since adherents to Islam will not allow any change to their beliefs, or even their teaching (enforced by death) then we are left with the situation that this violence will keep on happening.

    How many Islamic organisations have come forward with a statement to the effect that in view of the atrocities in Paris we must look at ourselves and change the way we teach our faith to prevent youngsters being radicalised?
  • On topic, short of Ed Miliband caught buggering goats live on TV, I can't see the route to a Tory majority.

    I did say earlier on in the week, Labour can achieve a majority on around 32%.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    If the big conclusion is that its going to be very tight, then that seems at last to be a straightforward and fair assessment of the situation. I guess we won't need any more "Why Dave cant win threads", because he can win.

    No, if Labour and Conservative are very close, then it is very unlikely that one will be more than (LD + UKIP + SNP + PC + Green + NI) seats ahead of the other.
    I have never believed that elections are about the current known and mathematics. In elections people do strange things. Who has factored in the I just cant vote for Miliband. I can well believe people going into a booth and not voting Labour because ED is so useless. On the other hand they might vote for Labour despite Ed being useless.

    We will see.. at the moment it seems hung parliament, but events dear boy events...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Not a female ankle in sight most Saturday nights on Broad Street, the mutaween do a good job of enforcing the Sharia there.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    On topic, short of Ed Miliband caught buggering goats live on TV, I can't see the route to a Tory majority.

    I did say earlier on in the week, Labour can achieve a majority on around 32%.

    For a Tory majority would they have to be dead or alive?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The other day I mentioned that I left Uni after a row with a tutor when she failed my essay on the challenge presented by Globalisation ... my marks for my previous seven essays were a first and six 2:1's, and the teacher involved had been overheard telling another that she could never win a debate with me, and that there was no party in the UK left wing enough for her to vote for. She said that no one except the Daily Mail and the EDL thought Sharia Law might be used in the UK, among other comments

    Any way I found it, here it is. Quite relevant to the current headlines

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
  • Pulpstar said:

    Not a female ankle in sight most Saturday nights on Broad Street, the mutaween do a good job of enforcing the Sharia there.

    Especially in those Lap Dancing Clubs on Broad Street.

    I only know, because there's a top 80s bar on Broad Street called "The Reflex"
  • philiph said:

    On topic, short of Ed Miliband caught buggering goats live on TV, I can't see the route to a Tory majority.

    I did say earlier on in the week, Labour can achieve a majority on around 32%.

    For a Tory majority would they have to be dead or alive?
    I'm not sure.

    As a former Tory Chief Whip told a batch of of new MPs

    "Never be caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl"
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,473
    philiph said:

    On topic, short of Ed Miliband caught buggering goats live on TV, I can't see the route to a Tory majority.

    I did say earlier on in the week, Labour can achieve a majority on around 32%.

    For a Tory majority would they have to be dead or alive?
    Er... Which would be worse?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Cyclefree said:

    Part 3

    Above all, say to Muslims: we think of you as British citizens and we expect you to think of yourselves as British citizens with your homes and futures here. You are equal citizens and are entitled to the full protection of British law. But that also means that you have responsibilities and duties as British citizens. And one of those means that you must stop thinking of yourselves as Pakistani or Algerian or whatever and have to fully embrace being British rather than having your head / heart somewhere else and only your body here. You can be whatever religion you want but as far as we - and your fellow Britons are concerned - this is your private affair. If it means more to you to be living in an Islamic state then that is your choice. But what you cannot do is seek to create an Islamic state of Britain or in Britain and nor can you expect others to accept or abide by the tenets of the faith you have chosen. If you want tolerance you have to give it - and to things/people you may not like. But do not expect us to tolerate the intolerable.

    How about those for starters?

    Extraordinarily cogent and credible (in addition to those adumbrated by Socrates on the previous thread. But Luckyguy1983 too raises the surely unarguable point about what concrete measures are required to incentivize compliance with the strictures you both have so forecefully articulated and what penalties will be applied to those who resist.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Not a female ankle in sight most Saturday nights on Broad Street, the mutaween do a good job of enforcing the Sharia there.

    Misleading street name then.

    I have had my makeover gone for tomorrows visit anyone think i will get in?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    Pulpstar said:

    Not a female ankle in sight most Saturday nights on Broad Street, the mutaween do a good job of enforcing the Sharia there.

    Especially in those Lap Dancing Clubs on Broad Street.

    I only know, because there's a top 80s bar on Broad Street called "The Reflex"
    The Reflex is a door to finding treasure in the dark.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015

    philiph said:

    On topic, short of Ed Miliband caught buggering goats live on TV, I can't see the route to a Tory majority.

    I did say earlier on in the week, Labour can achieve a majority on around 32%.

    For a Tory majority would they have to be dead or alive?
    I'm not sure.

    As a former Tory Chief Whip told a batch of of new MPs

    "Never be caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl"
    Wise words...

    Westminster paedophile ring: Top Tory MP 'murdered girl at vile orgy' claims new witness

    "A victim of a VIP paedophile ring believes a girl of 15 was killed at a vile orgy.

    The new witness has told police he watched the teenager being taken into a ­terrifying “medical room” by a senior Tory MP – and never saw her again.

    The sickening events are said to have taken place at London’s notorious Dolphin Square flats in the 1990s, the Sunday People can reveal.

    He fears the teenager may have been killed by a brutal sadist acting out his horrific fantasies.

    It would make her the fourth reported murder victim of a Westminster-based pervert ring, some of them household names. "

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/westminster-paedophile-ring-top-tory-4957409
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    philiph said:

    On topic, short of Ed Miliband caught buggering goats live on TV, I can't see the route to a Tory majority.

    I did say earlier on in the week, Labour can achieve a majority on around 32%.

    For a Tory majority would they have to be dead or alive?
    I'm not sure.

    As a former Tory Chief Whip told a batch of of new MPs

    "Never be caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl"
    Goodness, has ex US Governor and jailbird Edwin Edwards been recruited by Michael Gove to the whips office. Praise be....there's hope yet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    On topic, short of Ed Miliband caught buggering goats live on TV, I can't see the route to a Tory majority.

    I did say earlier on in the week, Labour can achieve a majority on around 32%.

    Perhaps Ed could be tempted if Sky substitute one of those in lieu of an empty chair for Cameron.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited January 2015
    JohnO said:

    philiph said:

    On topic, short of Ed Miliband caught buggering goats live on TV, I can't see the route to a Tory majority.

    I did say earlier on in the week, Labour can achieve a majority on around 32%.

    For a Tory majority would they have to be dead or alive?
    I'm not sure.

    As a former Tory Chief Whip told a batch of of new MPs

    "Never be caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl"
    Goodness, has ex US Governor and jailbird Edwin Edwards been recruited by Michael Gove to the whips office. Praise be....there's hope yet.
    I was convinced it was a former Tory Chief Whip who had said it.

    I blame it on the Night Nurse I've overdosed on.

    Next I'll find out it was JFK who delivered the Winds of Change Speech.
  • On topic, short of Ed Miliband caught buggering goats live on TV, I can't see the route to a Tory majority.

    I did say earlier on in the week, Labour can achieve a majority on around 32%.

    Perhaps Ed could be tempted if Sky substitute one of those in lieu of an empty chair for Cameron.
    Another reason to avoid the debates in that case.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Is Sunday the nurses night at the harem?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    MikeK said:
    I'm not generally a fan of Mr. Hitchens and his "Mr. Angry" rants. But that article is both personally honest, and very close to the mark. It also points out some unpleasant truths, that need to be said.

    On topic (discussion topic, not thread topic) the most likely political/legislative reaction to these attacks is not all the good and sensible stuff Socrates/cyclefree describe, but a further expansive of the State's surveillance powers with corollary impact on our civil liberties.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Cyclefree said:

    Part 3

    Above all, say to Muslims: we think of you as British citizens and we expect you to think of yourselves as British citizens with your homes and futures here. You are equal citizens and are entitled to the full protection of British law. But that also means that you have responsibilities and duties as British citizens. And one of those means that you must stop thinking of yourselves as Pakistani or Algerian or whatever and have to fully embrace being British rather than having your head / heart somewhere else and only your body here. You can be whatever religion you want but as far as we - and your fellow Britons are concerned - this is your private affair. If it means more to you to be living in an Islamic state then that is your choice. But what you cannot do is seek to create an Islamic state of Britain or in Britain and nor can you expect others to accept or abide by the tenets of the faith you have chosen. If you want tolerance you have to give it - and to things/people you may not like. But do not expect us to tolerate the intolerable.

    How about those for starters?

    Except 'saying' something to someone is the least effective behaviour changer known to man. If it were not, we could 'tell' people not to commit crime and they wouldn't. You have to reinforce the behaviour you want and disincentivise the behaviour you don't. That's what we need suggestions for.
    Stop funding of those organisations which are reinforcing the bad behaviour we don't want. Prosecute imams who incite hatred of gay people or Jews for instance. Expel foreign imams, for instance.

    I have made some suggestions. I cannot promise that they will work.

    We should be doing these steps at the very least. We have to change the climate, the ideological climate. We have to challenge and criticise and stop having the debate on the extremists terms. Stop, for instance, accepting implicitly the idea that Muslims here have some sort of special right to be consulted - or opine - on foreign policy issues affecting Muslims in other countries. All that does is reinforce the idea in their - and others minds - that their identity as Muslims is more important than their identity as Britons. We don't assume that the Archbishop of Westminster has a right to be consulted on EU policy just because the EU has a preponderance of Catholic citizens.

    Look I'm just an ordinary Joe. Maybe others have ideas.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,823
    isam said:

    The other day I mentioned that I left Uni after a row with a tutor when she failed my essay on the challenge presented by Globalisation ... my marks for my previous seven essays were a first and six 2:1's, and the teacher involved had been overheard telling another that she could never win a debate with me, and that there was no party in the UK left wing enough for her to vote for. She said that no one except the Daily Mail and the EDL thought Sharia Law might be used in the UK, among other comments

    Any way I found it, here it is. Quite relevant to the current headlines

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/

    It reads more like a polemic than an essay to me to be honest. Not saying you don't have a point, or that she was right to fail it. But you seem to be missing a few of the scholarly niceties -you quote a lot where you ought to be paraphrasing, you refer to 'I', rather than 'it could be argued', or 'the author would contend' etc.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    MikeK said:
    I'm not generally a fan of Mr. Hitchens and his "Mr. Angry" rants. But that article is both personally honest, and very close to the mark. It also points out some unpleasant truths, that need to be said.

    On topic (discussion topic, not thread topic) the most likely political/legislative reaction to these attacks is not all the good and sensible stuff Socrates/cyclefree describe, but a further expansive of the State's surveillance powers with corollary impact on our civil liberties.

    Yes - and Nick Cohen is right on the button in this article on the reasons why.

    http://www.standpointmag.com/features-january-february-2015-great-betrayal-liberals-appease-islam-nick-cohen-the-left

  • http://youtu.be/hwq8Bwr9wUg

    Non-Muslims dare not enter Birmingham, says Fox News.

    Oh dear and I am off to curry mile tomorrow night to meet a fellow non-muslim wonder if i should cancel
    I thought all those blokes on their knees on a Saturday night around the Bull Ring were drunk. Now it appears they must all have been praying to Mecca.

    Does Fox actually believe this stuff... or has Birmngham Alabama just become the Islamic centre of the United States?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Stunning but hardly surprising that NHS isn't one of Cameron's six themes for 2015 election.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Massive ruse in London with private investors paying council tenants to abuse the governments "Right to Buy" scheme that give a £100k discount on council property... clip on BBC London, full show tmrw at 7.30pm
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    The NHS appears to feature in all EIC themes.

    Probably overkill even for me TGH
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    http://youtu.be/hwq8Bwr9wUg

    Non-Muslims dare not enter Birmingham, says Fox News.

    Oh dear and I am off to curry mile tomorrow night to meet a fellow non-muslim wonder if i should cancel
    I thought all those blokes on their knees on a Saturday night around the Bull Ring were drunk. Now it appears they must all have been praying to Mecca.

    Does Fox actually believe this stuff... or has Birmngham Alabama just become the Islamic centre of the United States?
    Praying to Mecca doesn't even win a single bingo game
  • Apols if already posted

    We asked some ad agencies to mock up general election posters

    http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/we-asked-some-ad-agencies-to-mock-up-general-election-posters--lyghuJFj9e
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    The other day I mentioned that I left Uni after a row with a tutor when she failed my essay on the challenge presented by Globalisation ... my marks for my previous seven essays were a first and six 2:1's, and the teacher involved had been overheard telling another that she could never win a debate with me, and that there was no party in the UK left wing enough for her to vote for. She said that no one except the Daily Mail and the EDL thought Sharia Law might be used in the UK, among other comments

    Any way I found it, here it is. Quite relevant to the current headlines

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/

    It reads more like a polemic than an essay to me to be honest. Not saying you don't have a point, or that she was right to fail it. But you seem to be missing a few of the scholarly niceties -you quote a lot where you ought to be paraphrasing, you refer to 'I', rather than 'it could be argued', or 'the author would contend' etc.

    Oh!

    Well it was no different in style to the others that got good marks to be honest, and was remarked and passed..

    But thought I'd share as the point I was making seems to be relevant to the discussions on here in the last few days
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Good posts Cyclefree. Taken together these measure appear radical but that's only because we've allowed the culture to go too far and now have to take remedial action. Time and demographics are against us. There's an excellent essay by Douglas Murray here on the state we're in: http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/5250/full

    To your list, I would add that we need measures to enable Muslims to renounce Islam without fear. The notion that people in Britain should be punished for no longer believing an ideology tantamount to bullying. We have national schemes for getting people off alcohol and drugs. We need similar schemes to support and encouragement apostates too. Any Imam that doesn't support it gets an ASBO.

    TBH, I'd be happy to go a lot further (no new mosques, publish all sermons online, revise the Koran, ban religion in schools and the public sector) but can see it wouldn't plain sailing.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    JohnO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Part 3

    Above all, say to Muslims: we think of you as British citizens and we expect you to think of yourselves as British citizens with your homes and futures here. You are equal citizens and are entitled to the full protection of British law. But that also means that you have responsibilities and duties as British citizens. And one of those means that you must stop thinking of yourselves as Pakistani or Algerian or whatever and have to fully embrace being British rather than having your head / heart somewhere else and only your body here. You can be whatever religion you want but as far as we - and your fellow Britons are concerned - this is your private affair. If it means more to you to be living in an Islamic state then that is your choice. But what you cannot do is seek to create an Islamic state of Britain or in Britain and nor can you expect others to accept or abide by the tenets of the faith you have chosen. If you want tolerance you have to give it - and to things/people you may not like. But do not expect us to tolerate the intolerable.

    How about those for starters?

    Extraordinarily cogent and credible (in addition to those adumbrated by Socrates on the previous thread. But Luckyguy1983 too raises the surely unarguable point about what concrete measures are required to incentivize compliance with the strictures you both have so forecefully articulated and what penalties will be applied to those who resist.
    I feel as if I'm being given my homework for the week!

    It's like turning a tanker round. Much like changing the culture in banks you cannot do it just by saying good stuff or by passing a law or even imposing a penalty.

    However, I have an idea for a post which I may put to OGH. Though I expect he's probably sick of the whole topic by now.

    I'm sure there are - eventually - betting opportunities in black swan events such as these, though at this precise moment that seems a little distasteful. There are people mourning and funerals to be held.
  • Boy that Fox News guy really doesn't know Birmingham.

    Beautiful City DAFUQ?

    @sundersays: Steven Emerson @theipt says "terrible error" & apologises to "beautiful city of Birmingham" ht @rafsanchez @telegraph

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11338985/Fox-News-terror-expert-says-everyone-in-Birmingham-is-a-Muslim.html
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    My curry night best not involve any blokes on their knees or I am leaving early
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    2nd graph in thread header looks like a French flag! Quite apt
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Cyclefree said:

    MikeK said:
    I'm not generally a fan of Mr. Hitchens and his "Mr. Angry" rants. But that article is both personally honest, and very close to the mark. It also points out some unpleasant truths, that need to be said.

    On topic (discussion topic, not thread topic) the most likely political/legislative reaction to these attacks is not all the good and sensible stuff Socrates/cyclefree describe, but a further expansive of the State's surveillance powers with corollary impact on our civil liberties.

    Yes - and Nick Cohen is right on the button in this article on the reasons why.

    http://www.standpointmag.com/features-january-february-2015-great-betrayal-liberals-appease-islam-nick-cohen-the-left

    Thanks. This in particular struck me:

    "The Left will fight the white far-Right. In Britain, groups like Hope not Hate organise protests against UKIP. Think what you will about UKIP — and I think nothing but ill about them — but it is not actually recommending the rape of enslaved women. On Twitter and in the universities there are constant demands to ban and punish those who show the smallest disrespect to women — scientists who wear racy shirts, men who argue against abortion, pop singers who promote a rape culture, and pick-up artists who instruct men on seduction techniques. But with honourable exceptions, leftists will not argue against armed misogyny. On the contrary, they will ban those who try to take it on."

    "But then I must face the fact that there is a vast woozy mass of liberal-leftists who will never change, and would not fight back even if a bomb exploded in their own back yard."

    Economics is still up for debate, but the "liberal"-left have won (hands-down) the socio-cultural battle in the UK, and we're all suffering for it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Blueberry said:

    Good posts Cyclefree. Taken together these measure appear radical but that's only because we've allowed the culture to go too far and now have to take remedial action. Time and demographics are against us. There's an excellent essay by Douglas Murray here on the state we're in: http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/5250/full

    To your list, I would add that we need measures to enable Muslims to renounce Islam without fear. The notion that people in Britain should be punished for no longer believing an ideology tantamount to bullying. We have national schemes for getting people off alcohol and drugs. We need similar schemes to support and encouragement apostates too. Any Imam that doesn't support it gets an ASBO.

    TBH, I'd be happy to go a lot further (no new mosques, publish all sermons online, revise the Koran, ban religion in schools and the public sector) but can see it wouldn't plain sailing.

    I would prosecute anyone saying that the penalty for apostasy is death. I know that there will be much protestation that this is what it says in the Koran. I have no idea. But regardless of whether it is or not we have to say that freedom of thought means the freedom not to believe without being threatened for exercising that freedom. And if that means that that bit of the Koran cannot be taught in mosques and schools well, too bad. That is why one of my points was to say - unequivocally - as we have not done until now that where there is a conflict between Islamic law and British law, the latter wins. No ifs. No buts.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Cyclefree said:

    JohnO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Part 3

    However, I have an idea for a post which I may put to OGH. Though I expect he's probably sick of the whole topic by now.

    Go For It! Seriously.
  • Hmm, I'm a great fan of Cyclefree's posts, always interesting and well thought-out. And indeed, kudos to her for a list of specific suggestions about what could be done.

    But - and it's a big 'but' - several of them are hardly consistent with the principles of civil liberties, are they? What she suggests is much, much more intrusive than what the government proposes.

    Maybe that's what people want. But I can't help noticing that concern about civil liberties seems to depend an awful lot on whether it is 'us' or 'them' whose liberties are going to be compromised.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    JohnO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Part 3

    Above all, say to Muslims: we think of you as British citizens and we expect you to think of yourselves as British citizens with your homes and futures here. You are equal citizens and are entitled to the full protection of British law. But that also means that you have responsibilities and duties as British citizens. And one of those means that you must stop thinking of yourselves as Pakistani or Algerian or whatever and have to fully embrace being British rather than having your head / heart somewhere else and only your body here. You can be whatever religion you want but as far as we - and your fellow Britons are concerned - this is your private affair. If it means more to you to be living in an Islamic state then that is your choice. But what you cannot do is seek to create an Islamic state of Britain or in Britain and nor can you expect others to accept or abide by the tenets of the faith you have chosen. If you want tolerance you have to give it - and to things/people you may not like. But do not expect us to tolerate the intolerable.

    How about those for starters?

    Extraordinarily cogent and credible (in addition to those adumbrated by Socrates on the previous thread. But Luckyguy1983 too raises the surely unarguable point about what concrete measures are required to incentivize compliance with the strictures you both have so forecefully articulated and what penalties will be applied to those who resist.
    It's difficult to detach immigrants from their loyalties. Remember that the "well integrated" Irish community in the Boston, Mass area were not averse to funding the IRA. All the more reason why we should have the ability to discriminate in our immigration policies as evidence arises.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @Cyclefree

    However, I have an idea for a post which I may put to OGH. Though I expect he's probably sick of the whole topic by now.

    Go For It! Seriously.
This discussion has been closed.