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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues
One of the features of general elections in recent times is that the Lib Dems always seem to get a boost during the campaign. Thus a 4-5% increase in their final share at the election compared with pre-formal campaign polls has almost been the norm.
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Hmmmm
Be careful what you wish for, I say to myself!
SNP on the basis it is a regional party and the Greens on the basis of their piss poor performance in all by-elections this parliament ?
There is the Blue Labour (White Van Man) vote, who is aspirational but socially conservative, who was the force behind Thatcher victories largely because of Right To Buy.
and there is the patriotic vote, who detests the way the liberal left hates England, or at the very least can't bear to talk about it with any great joy or appreciation.
Both of which have joined your first wing in either sitting at home, or with Farage's Merry Men.
[on top of reports of 4 dead]
Hopefully this will mark an end to the ordeal the Parisians have been suffering this week.
Other reports that a second male gunman in the supermarket "has escaped"...
I have just realised what modern politicians have been reading, our good friend Mr Orwell again, practically a textbook for the post-Blair political generation!
Con ......... 284
Lab .......... 281
SNP .......... 34
LibDems .... 26
Others ......... 7
NI .............. 18
Total ........ 650 seats
I hope this is over now.
Farage could,however, score points off Cameron in the TV debates which is one reason Cameron is trying to avoid the debates completely.It could be more to do with the fact that when he loses it and becomes Flashman,the red and purple faced Bullingdon bully boy,it is very unpleasant for voters to watch.Farage,too,must be careful as he looked well out of shape in the 1st debate with Clegg-a heavily sweating Farage won't attract either.
the area around the supermarket had been surrounded by police.
No live coverage or prominent reporting because Baga is in Nigeria so who cares?.
See
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/01/09/boko-haram-may-have-killed-2000-people-in-one-attack/
I think Lab will be ahead again on this model.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115878540
http://www.netcharles.com/orwell/articles/letters-agent-af.htm
http://electionsetc.com/2015/01/09/forecast-update-9-january-2015/
Methodology change due soon though.
What a week. Is this the new normal?
The situation remains very unclear.
Innocent face.
17.55 There is now apparently a search underway around the supermarket.
With UKIP, OTOH, what people will be reminded of is what a foam-flecked angry bunch of nutters they are. They'll get coverage all right, but it'll be of Chinkies, Bongo Bongo Land, peasant hunts, gays causing floods, why can't you sluts clean behind the fridge, MEPs going whoring, them-Romanians-comin'-over-'ere-I-don't-want-them-livin'-next-door and there'll probably be an expenses scandal in there too, as we're past due for another of those from UKIP.
However, we have yet to finalise a new method that properly takes into account the SNP’s rise and Labour’s fall in Scotland – we’ll be introducing it in the next week or two. That means that, for the moment, our forecasts come with a big health warning: they are likely to overestimate Labour."
Sky - Four hostages and a gunman are killed in the supermarket siege as French media say a second suspect is believed to have escaped."
Dreadful news regarding the innocent victims - how on earth could one of the terrorists escape with so many police covering the scene?
The foxhunting issue shows up the small l liberals for what they are, utterly naive and sentimental about human nature, judging by emotion not reason. The only reason that foxes have not gone the way of Wolves in the UK centuries ago is because they were valued for hunting so the landowners and farmers held off from exterminating them all. Now there is no reason not to destroy them.
You can pass as many laws forbidding landowners exterminating foxes as you like, but you have not got a chance of catching anything more than a tiny minority of those defying such laws as far too much space and no chance of watching it all (and the people who live on the land will know if such watchers are there before such watchers know they are there - one reason rural south Armagh was such a nightmare to police during the troubles). The irony is that hunting with hounds, because it is a "natural" way of killing actually works with evolution and the fittest & cleverest survive, keeping the species healthy. Alternatives kill the fittest as well as the lame.
Similarly with the death penalty. Liberals hold up their hands at the state being brutal and think people in favour of it are nasty. They are not nasty, they just are not naive. I predict that within 25 years the death penalty will have been restored in most of Europe - and not just for murder in some countries.
I still intend to take revenge on Cameron and his small "l" liberal supporters by voting UKIP and with any luck putting Ed Miliband in office with a very weak Labour government as a result. In the ensuing chaos rich liberal tories will lose far more than I will, as they have far more to lose and the Tory party will hopefully be reclaimed from them in the ensuing party civil war. If not, UKIP will do to them in coming elections what Labour did to the Liberal party.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/09/electoral-commission-trying-to-regulate-blogsnotifies-guido-conservativehome-labourlist-libdemvoice/
Guido says get lost.
Then you write "Well, they were French police."
Physician, heal thyself.
'Cameron is trying to avoid the debates completely.It could be more to do with the fact that when he loses it and becomes Flashman,the red and purple faced Bullingdon bully boy,it is very unpleasant for voters to watch.'
And Ed looks like a freak,what's your point ?
The officer, who could not be named speaking about an ongoing situation, said the attacker has locked himself inside the downtown shop, with police ready to intervene outside.
Personally I think the French security services have done a very good job so far and it is worth remembering at least 3 of the victims have been police.
As an atheist I see religion as a vile plague that has caused endless suffering. I wish people would wake up.
“The international jihadist movement has declared war. They have declared war on anybody who does not think and act exactly as they wish they’d think and act. We may not like this and wish it would go away, but it’s not going to go away, and the reality is we are going to have to confront it."
And I think it actually means life.
https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/guido-fawkes-non-party-campaigner-letter.pdf
If hell holes like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan want to have such laws that's their business but we must not allow them to dictate to us what we can do - either via their communities here or by funding schools here.
http://uk.linkedin.com/pub/vicky-fox/11/b19/409
I may send her a polite note outlining my views on this.
That said I don't think that Greens should be there. Personally I think it should be only those who can be PM (if we must have the debates at all), but I think there are reasons for including the Lib Dems and Ukip and not the Greens.
"By the way, I applaud the decision of the British press not to publish the cartoons. I have kept away from this topic, knowing how the rabid right will react. So I simply remark: well done to our media. Spot bloody on."
It's certainly hard to keep up. Last week we had a thread on whether 'chinks' was an acceptable word and a footballer was banned for a clumsy line on twitter.
This week the likes of David Aaronovitch are crucifying our national newspapers for choosing not to print some gratuitously offensive cartoons.
Could someone please make the rules clearer?
Coulibaly swore allegiance to Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, and told BFMV the terrorist attacks were “synchronised”.
http://ricardhos.tumblr.com/post/107613391678/charlie-hebdo-the-british-press-and-islam
@richardhoskins
> Friend
> Family
> I've worked with Vicky
> I've done business with her
> She tried to muzzle my freedom of expression"
Served those cartoonists right, if you think about it.
I wonder if it was a reaction to the QT in Canterbury where the audience was a little over-excitable!
Or - as the Duke of Wellington put it - "Publish and be damned!"
Freedom of speech from the 16th century onwards was not won, slowly, against much opposition and with many setbacks, by the likes of the Audreyannes of this world but by the scabrous, the scatological, the rude, the insulting, the satirical, the persistent and, above all, the brave.
http://paper-bird.net/2015/01/09/why-i-am-not-charlie/
Bravo!
Not alone, but wrong nevertheless. How can you ever draw a line if you follow your thinking?
The British press should have published the cartoons - and they should have done so precisely to demonstrate that they'd refrained from doing so in the past through choice.
Free speech isn't some form of Tourettes where you HAVE to say EVERYTHING that can be said. Just because it insults the small amount of bad guys, we shouldn't forget that it will also upset the large amount of Muslim good guys to see their prophet insulted on the front page of every paper. These are the people we have to take with us if we have any chance of getting out of the mess that mass immigration and multiculturalism has left us in,. It would suit the terrorists just fine if there was division between "us" and "them"
Comedy actor Lance Percival has died after 'a long illness', his family have said.
He appeared in a string of comedy films including Carry On Cruising and provided one of the voices for The Beatles' cartoon film Yellow Submarine and became a regular - and witty - guest on a succession of panel shows.