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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll on the UK withdrawing from the EU
The changes are from the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday in January (note the question then was slightly different to the question asked in the Sky News Poll), as we can see this represents a 6.5% swing in favour of those wishing for the UK to remain in the EU since January.
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I know who Tulisa is, because I watch "X Factor" on which she used to be one of the judges.
Anyone who does not watch "X Factor" would have no reason to know who she is.
Come to think of it, I have no idea who or what she is, except that she used to be a judge on "X Factor".
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/cxvsvxeo4n/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040613.pdf
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/europeangreencapital/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Synopsis-EGCA-2015-Technical-Assessment-Report.pdf
MOE:
Con: 27-30-33
Lab: 37-40-43
So leads between +4 and +16 are all essentially "noise"
Even the UKIP surge from ~10 to ~15 is still within MOE from their low base (+/-7)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22777735
I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!
Nick Robinson on Today - some will see this as further evidence that Labour are moving away from the principle of universality - the issue is the cost - £2.3bn - twenty three times the money they'd save from the pensioner winter fuel payment cut - £0.1bn.
"There’s a worse crisis on the way unless we get serious about tackling debt
For all of the talk of austerity, Britain is still drowning in debt, private as well as public."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10099326/Theres-a-worse-crisis-on-the-way-unless-we-get-serious-about-tackling-debt.html
They are already planning workfare.
It is all progress. If only there was a credible Shadow Chancellor to implement all this.
But it's possibly short term gain against long term disadvantage, good tactically against the Lib Dems I would say as i'm sure they want to be seen as the only leftish party with financial sanity.
But what about immigration? Still the second most important issue facing the country across all groups according to YouGov. Labour may well catch up on this at some point as well, or risk maintaining the look of middle class metropolitan types who benefit rather than suffer from immigration.
I expect you are rigyt. I am hoping for a big public sector pay rise. My pay has been frozen for five years now, and being on a final salary scheme this is making quite a difference to my projected pension.
A Labour government would be quite good for me personally.
You should count yourself lucky you are in a final salary pension scheme. I suspect there will be an inflationary bubble not too far ahead anyway, all that QE by Darling and Osborne has to find its way out somewhere.
Among Labour voters its 7th after education and family life and child care.
Only among UKIP voters is it joint second on 38.
Shouldn't the "NO" slice be in purple?
LOL!
Sadly, the excessive spamming on pb2 means that I'm going to (at least on an interim basis) have to make a MorrisF1 blog. Whilst I'd prefer not to the 6 spam comments just a day after the Canada early discussion post means that I think it's reached that stage. Of course, if the problems can be resolved I'd be more than happy to return to pb2.
So, today or tomorrow I'll try and get another blog up and running.
On the poll: compare that question to "Should Scotland be an independent country?" or whatever the Scottish one is. They're miles apart.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10099044/The-graph-that-shows-Labour-is-to-blame-for-the-pressures-on-AandE.html
I don't agree with Osborne's policy, but in some respects he has been quite moderate. There has been only a modest cut in public sector pay - via the increase in pension contributions - and realistically Labour would have done the same thing. I heard one public sector union official say that the success of the November 30th strike was to force the government to agree to the pension offer that Labour would have offered in the first place.
There is going to be precious little difference to choose between the two main parties at the next election.
Even if - like Nabavi - one believes Osborne is following a perfectly judged policy, this must be a little bit depressing. All of the sound and fury of our supposed political debate, but the political elite is not capable of coming up with more than one policy. There are some interesting ideas out there, but they will not be part of mainstream political debate. There is a complete lack of original thinking from either HMG or Opposition.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22778310
The main question I think is this one:
Why is A&E in crisis now, with the same level of A&E admissions as in 2011?
It directly contradicts those blaming an increased demand on A&E as the cause of the problems, which is both the government (blaming the 2004 contract) and tim's otherwise reasonable theory (that it is due to cutting care for the elderly in the community).
"there is going to be precious little difference to choose between the two main parties at the next election."
Its not what voters will be told in the respective manifesto's that matters, its what happens afterwards that is ultimately important.
One thing is certain, its going to be a dirty election campaign.
@oflynnexpress: So Lab are not really interested in contributory principle, only in the opposite - more means-testing and redistribution.
@oflynnexpress: Lab is not going to lose its reputation for taking money from those who work and giving it to those who won't. Very bad decision.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10099326/Theres-a-worse-crisis-on-the-way-unless-we-get-serious-about-tackling-debt.html
Lefties read and learn. This will dominate British politics in the years ahead. Get on the right side of it. (PM Redward and Chancellor Loretta will in all likelihood preside over a stunning collapse later in the decade).
But the overall thrust is right. We are still near the bottom of the hole and in government debt terms at least we are still digging. I agree this is the future for politics in this country for the foreseeable future. Restrained government spending, higher taxes, lower deficits and, eventually, some debt repayment. The agonies that Labour are going through this week in reluctantly accepting decisions that have already been made, like CB, is only the first step in a great march of readjusted expectations. The readers of Polly's piece are not going to like it.
If other countries were given a similar referendum, we could end up in the odd position of Britain, the most Eurosceptic country in the EU, being the only one to vote to stay in.
Out of step as usual...
I was reading an interesting article in the FT a few weeks ago that suggested that by flattening the yield curve on gilts, QE discouraged lending and was therefore reducing the money supply M4 measure. If so it would be having deflationary impact at present, but presumably will have inflationary impact when stopped and even more so when it is ever reversed.
I do not expect it to be reversed just as I do not expect our supposed Keynesians to run budget surpluses in the good times.
Indeed. If something can't go on it won't.
1. HRT up to 50 - 60%/
2. HRT imposed on incomes lower than currently.
3. A mansion or wealth tax.
4. Getting rid of inheritance tax exemptions.
5. More council tax bands.
6. More taxes on pensions.
7. Possible removal of some of the tax-free savings options.
8. Removal of all benefits for those on HRT.
9. Higher indirect taxes e.g. car tax etc.
The big jump occurred after the change in the GP contract in part because the private companies given the out of hours contracts provide very thin care (the contract for Cornwall has had as few as one Dr covering a county of 400 thousand, making a visit to A and E in Truro a better option) and the fallout of the disastrous changes to junior doctors training in 2006-7. Most A and E departments have multiple staff vacancies particularly at senior levels and are dependent on strings of low productivity locum or Doctors who have only just qualified, and rightly need to check everything with a more senior Dr.
It is chickens coming home to roost.
They just might at that. ;^ )
"I was reading an interesting article in the FT a few weeks ago that suggested that by flattening the yield curve on gilts, QE discouraged lending and was therefore reducing the money supply M4 measure. If so it would be having deflationary impact at present, but presumably will have inflationary impact when stopped and even more so when it is ever reversed"
I am not a fan of QE but I don't understand that. If the yield curve is flattened (as it clearly has been) then, all other things being equal, government debt should be less attractive and lenders should be encouraged to seek yield elsewhere by lending to business etc. So QE should encourage private lending, not discourage it.
It has at least 3 pernicious effects. Firstly, it debases the currency making it a tax on all of us. Secondly, it drives up asset prices which has been extremely beneficial for the rich in our society but has done nothing for the rest of us thereby increasing division and inequality. Finally, if, as Allister Heath is pointing out today, your major problem is a credit bubble, printing hundreds of billions of new money is not exactly solving the problem. There is a confusion there between short term liquidity (which admittedly is helped) and underlying stability (which is not).
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf
Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)
AB: -8
C1: -22
C2: -14
DE: -20
Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
M:+11
F: +6
Whether or not it is good economics is beside the point. Of course, governing in that way is a different matter, as Francois Hollande is finding out.
It may explain why QE has not yet led to the explosion of inflation expected. It may do so in the future when stopped or undone.
Like many sensible people I am busy taking advantage of the low interest environment by making increased capital payments on my mortgage. Let someone else stimulate the economy if they please, I shall prepare for the return of high interest rates.
More to the point - does Patrick? Because this article points to the fact there will be no decent recovery between now and 2015 election.
And that dooms the Tories.
"Half of Ed Miliband’s Shadow Cabinet want the Labour leader to commit the party to an in-out referendum on Europe, it was claimed last night.
In a challenge to Mr Miliband’s authority, 15 Labour MPs and the party’s biggest donor launched a campaign yesterday to force a policy change on the issue."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2336011/Labour-revolt-Europe-poll-Half-Shadow-Cabinet-tell-Ed-Miliband-referendum.html#ixzz2VKGO7CGk
Nearly equal in blame are the leaders of the medical education establishment in the UK, particularly the leaders of the medical Royal Colleges and the GMC, PMETB and Deaneries. Hence their silence on this aspect of the crisis.
If you do not believe me then enquire of your local A and E dept, how many vacant posts do they have, and at what level, and how many locums or F1/F2 doctors (the most junior level).
I was in Andalusia a few weeks back, swanning off on a golf trip/p*ss up (an excuse to get away with the boys) to a place just outside Jerez. We were collectively stunned by all the empty properties and aura of abandonment. Hollywood Hills style homes adorning the brush hillsides and overlooking the fairways, with nobody living in them. And Jerez was eerie; quiet, full of empty shops and yet plenty of cocaine and prostitutes on offer!?!
It was easy to see that the economy has tanked and driving cross-country back to Malaga through the hilly olive farms southern Spain looked nothing short of third world. All pretty desperate.
If we in the UK - with all our muscle and might - are staring into the abyss economy-wise and struggling to dig ourselves out you have to wonder how Spain or Greece will manage to do so.
Perhaps untacking ourselves from the relentless mess that those countries are going to find themselves in is becoming more and more appealing to the holidaying Brits. Like me, they are probably returning thinking, geez, what a mess. Broadly speaking, despite it's myriad faults, I'm not that keen on just upping and leaving the EU, but it is all a worry.
M4 has been driven down by deleveraging of the banks. This has been driven by new capital requirements which were introduced at exactly the wrong time in the cycle and tougher rules on non performing debt. As banks shrink their balance sheets total lending falls which creates a lack of credit in the system.
This is why Osborne's commercial lending scheme is so important and why decisions on breaking up RBS creating a "good bank" that was in a position to lend should have been taken some time ago. The lack of credit for investment by SMEs is probably the largest single reason for low growth.
Personally I think it's natural to help your offspring, but just be open about it.
We cannot afford NOT to have a well funded welfare system.
One of the key differences in this crisis compared to the Great Depression is the widespread existence of sophisticated welfare systems in modern countries.
In the UK, it certainly stopped the unemployment rate spiralling into the teens.
And the procession of "U-turns" from here to 2015 will help their economic credibility how exactly?
At least posh folk are more prepared to believe Labour - it's their traditional working class supporters who are more unforgiving.
@afneil: Foreign direct investment (FDI) into France fell by 13% last year; but French FDI into the UK surged by 87%, according to Ernst & Young
I don't know about SeanT stirring up the natives on the Telegraph, the article about Bercow has over 1000 comments and it was only put up this morning!
First they support deficit reduction in the abstract but oppose every actual cut.
Then they specifically make arguments about the universality of benefits and disagree with coalition policies all the time, by default.
Then finally they meekly change their minds entirely and say they won;t reverse some stuff, but are still unclear about other things, and seem to have abandoned all attempt at a clear message or strategy.
Wheels totally come off this week - hilarious to watch!
Amazed at Labour's child-benefit statement. Didn't see that one coming in a million years. Much more of this and I'll be joining DUEMA.
Ed has just woken up in a cold sweat....
Yes. Interest rate risk is absolutely going to destroy some countries. Will French govt debt stay below 2% as their economy dies and taxes go up? Or Japan? They have 250% GDP and fully 25% pf their tax revenue is spent on debt service - a rise of interest rates to 4% (hardly outrageous) would see them having no money AT ALL to pay for anything other than debt service.
An assumption that the current low interest regime is a permamnent fixture as debt/GDP steadily climbs is pie in the sky. Interest rates will sooner or later revert to the right level.
We have 90%+ debt, a horrific deficit and a lost credit rating. But what we do have is the belief in the markets that the chancellor wants to address deficits and debts. The BIG risk of Redward and Loretta getting in is that this market belief might evaporate overnight. And a UK with 2%, 3%, 4%, 5% base rates would be a very different beast from today. THIS is the political challenge for Redward, or his looming premiership might die in the first weeks of its life.
So Polly can can wail 'spend, spend, spend' - but I bet she has no mortgage.
Suggests In would win a referendum.
In your eyes, what would the organisational effects of an 'in/out' referendum be? In other words, would we pull out of all European organisations, or just some?
The key move is to quit the corrupt and negative EU. Its malign influence, which the UK handles particularly ineffectively, will be neutralised the day we give two years notice to leave.
The economy will recover even quicker than after black (white?) Wednesday 20 years ago. The reason that it will be even quicker because of how cash-rich and 'ready' most of British industry actually is. It will be amazing how the atmosphere will change on the day the decision is made to leave the EU. The positive improvement in the attitude and culture, and the can-do approach that will be released, will be of great benefit to everybody.
GDP growth is the god you worship before. Interest rates a minor irritant to be ignored.
Your prescription of deficit spending drives an inexorable increase in debt/GDP. Unless growth exceeds the deficit (oh and there's a pig flying by my window).
We know where that leads. Default.
If I remember correctly, David Cameron was extolling the virtues of universal benefits throughout the 2010 GE campaign. Now it could be that he was lying through his teeth; or maybe times changed. Which do you think it was?
'A future Labour government would not reverse cuts to child benefit made by the coalition, the BBC has learned."
How many u-turns so far this week?
2009-10 +2pc growth led to downward revisions in the deficit.
Well, it turns out that you can.
There's a name for that type of doublethink, isn't there?
david_herdson - "But that distrust was primarily a visual thing (hence the discrepancy between the TV and radio figures). It was also that Nixon looked as if he needed a shave. Quite how the factors played off we'll never no as it's impossible to do controlled exercises but their relative visual appearances - in the widest sense - clearly played a part and given how close the election was, perhaps a decisive one."
I don't disagree that they were visual issues or, indeed, that they probably had an effect - but the point of 'looks' is that I'd suggest 'attractiveness' is more permanent than things like being under-prepared for a hot studio (the sweats) and failing to have a shave.
Neither really affects the unlying 'attractiveness' of the candidates and, if you're aware of them, you can practice or prepare solutions for them.
"Where it will cause headaches for Dave, however, is among his MPs. I am struck by the violence of emotions voiced by some MPs who are raging at the way Mr Cameron imposed this policy on them. A former minister, for example, says he will 'never forgive' the PM 'for what he has done to this party'. The danger is that gay marriage fades as an issue in the news as the country embraces the change and gets on with it, but that a significant section of the Conservative parliamentary party doesn't let go, and nurses its anger on this one for months and months."
SMEs may be struggling for credit but the bigger companies are paying down thier debts. All this personal and business deleveraging must be influencing the M4 figure.
It is good news, the opposite of the inflationary credit boom. Still a long way to go though, and about time the govt did its bit too.
How long will that have to continue whilst labour try to keep up the 'osbornes failed' line...
@iainmartin1: RT @AllisterHeath: Good services survey: UK PMI for May 54.9, up from 52.9 - the economy is growing in all areas. Definite return to growth.
The reason this appears to be a problem is that Western Society has abandoned an approach of "broadly try to look after everyone", in favour of an increasingly ruthless meritocracy.
Helping out the people you know is a natural part of a society that looks to find a respectable place for everyone to contribute and be fairly rewarded for that contribution, but in a meritocracy where those that "fail" are left struggling on zero-hours contracts, etc, such assistance is cheating.
There is no way to resolve such a contradiction. One has to choose.
2009-10 +2pc growth led to downward revisions in the deficit.
Lord help us. So we had 2% growth. And what % deficits? 'Downward revision' from a gazillion % to merely something utterly horrific. What happened to our debt/GDP after 2008 remind me?
There is no risk of default or interest rate spikes in Benworld is there?
But when this is exactly what does transpire in the real world what does the IMF always mandate? Cut yer spending back, balance budgets, supply side reform, sound money, behave.
Ah, you should have seen what Edwards was saying about Brown and Labour in 2009. Anyway his prediction of gold at $10,000 seems unlikely.
http://news.sky.com/story/1099455/sky-news-poll-reveals-huge-divide-on-europe
The power most Brits want Cameron to repatriate is control of immigration. I think this should be the yardstick of whether his repatriation will be seen as successful or not.