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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll on the UK withdrawing from the EU

SystemSystem Posts: 12,137
edited June 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll on the UK withdrawing from the EU

The changes are from the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday in January (note the question then was slightly different to the question asked in the Sky News Poll), as we can see this represents a 6.5% swing in favour of those wishing for the UK to remain in the EU since January.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Shouldn't the "NO" slice be in purple?
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (FPT) Someone was asking if there were people who have, or have not, heard of the person called "Tulisa".

    I know who Tulisa is, because I watch "X Factor" on which she used to be one of the judges.
    Anyone who does not watch "X Factor" would have no reason to know who she is.

    Come to think of it, I have no idea who or what she is, except that she used to be a judge on "X Factor".
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    I think the telly should run a game show to find a Bulgarian for Bercow's job. There's probably thousands who'd do a better job for less money.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 4th June - CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -33
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,509
    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 4th June - CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -33

    That's the best Labour score for some time - nothing startling in the secondaries.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/cxvsvxeo4n/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040613.pdf

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Have been looking at Bristol's bid to be a Green Capital 2015 - EU encourages 20 mph speed reductions across residential areas, and Mayor's desire to impose a wide zone of residents' parking schemes appears to be a result of this EU contest.

    http://ec.europa.eu/environment/europeangreencapital/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Synopsis-EGCA-2015-Technical-Assessment-Report.pdf
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 4th June - CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -33

    That's the best Labour score for some time - nothing startling in the secondaries.
    6 days.....they were on +13 less than 2 weeks ago.

    MOE:
    Con: 27-30-33
    Lab: 37-40-43

    So leads between +4 and +16 are all essentially "noise"

    Even the UKIP surge from ~10 to ~15 is still within MOE from their low base (+/-7)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited June 2013
    "A future Labour government would not reverse cuts to child benefit made by the coalition, the BBC has learned."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22777735

    I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!

    Nick Robinson on Today - some will see this as further evidence that Labour are moving away from the principle of universality - the issue is the cost - £2.3bn - twenty three times the money they'd save from the pensioner winter fuel payment cut - £0.1bn.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    "A future Labour government would not reverse cuts to child benefit made by the coalition, the BBC has learned."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22777735

    I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!

    Nick Robinson on Today - some will see this as further evidence that Labour are moving away from the principle of universality - the issue is the cost - £2.3bn - twenty three times the money they'd save from the pensioner winter fuel payment cut - £0.1bn.

    The main problem with the CB cut is that if you get some but not all you have to go from PAYE into the bloody Self Assessment system: Labour should see if they can fix that (ie by simply taxing CB)

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Allister Heath's daily ray of sunshine:

    "There’s a worse crisis on the way unless we get serious about tackling debt
    For all of the talk of austerity, Britain is still drowning in debt, private as well as public."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10099326/Theres-a-worse-crisis-on-the-way-unless-we-get-serious-about-tackling-debt.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    "A future Labour government would not reverse cuts to child benefit made by the coalition, the BBC has learned."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22777735

    I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!

    Nick Robinson on Today - some will see this as further evidence that Labour are moving away from the principle of universality - the issue is the cost - £2.3bn - twenty three times the money they'd save from the pensioner winter fuel payment cut - £0.1bn.

    Next we will be hearing that Labour do not plan to reinstate the spare bedroom subsidy or to remove the housing benefit limiit.

    They are already planning workfare.

    It is all progress. If only there was a credible Shadow Chancellor to implement all this.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2013
    What Labour will do is what the big unions tell them to do. It won't be in the manifesto, it will only show its face after the election if Ed gets into No 10. The choice between Labour and the Tories in 2015 will be starker than most people currently think.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    The pensioner winter fuel announcement would not save even £100m. In two people households not many will have both in the 40% tax band so the other will still get the payment.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Labour will follow the Conservatives on Europe sooner or later, and it's good to see them following the government down the road to a sensible welfare system. Gove's description of Miliband as a "blancmange in a hurricane" is looking more accurate than I first thought.

    But it's possibly short term gain against long term disadvantage, good tactically against the Lib Dems I would say as i'm sure they want to be seen as the only leftish party with financial sanity.

    But what about immigration? Still the second most important issue facing the country across all groups according to YouGov. Labour may well catch up on this at some point as well, or risk maintaining the look of middle class metropolitan types who benefit rather than suffer from immigration.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    What Labour will do is what the big unions tell them to do. It won't be in the manifesto, it will only show its face after the election if Ed gets into No 10. The choice between Labour and the Tories in 2015 will be starker than most people currently think.



    I expect you are rigyt. I am hoping for a big public sector pay rise. My pay has been frozen for five years now, and being on a final salary scheme this is making quite a difference to my projected pension.

    A Labour government would be quite good for me personally.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2013
    @foxinsoxuk

    You should count yourself lucky you are in a final salary pension scheme. I suspect there will be an inflationary bubble not too far ahead anyway, all that QE by Darling and Osborne has to find its way out somewhere.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Millsy said:

    But what about immigration? Still the second most important issue facing the country across all groups according to YouGov.

    But fifth most important - 18 - after the economy (64), health (37), pensions (30) and tax (22) on "which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing you and your family?"

    Among Labour voters its 7th after education and family life and child care.

    Only among UKIP voters is it joint second on 38.
  • @ Loony

    Shouldn't the "NO" slice be in purple?

    LOL!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Good morning, everyone.

    Sadly, the excessive spamming on pb2 means that I'm going to (at least on an interim basis) have to make a MorrisF1 blog. Whilst I'd prefer not to the 6 spam comments just a day after the Canada early discussion post means that I think it's reached that stage. Of course, if the problems can be resolved I'd be more than happy to return to pb2.

    So, today or tomorrow I'll try and get another blog up and running.

    On the poll: compare that question to "Should Scotland be an independent country?" or whatever the Scottish one is. They're miles apart.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,509

    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 4th June - CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -33

    That's the best Labour score for some time - nothing startling in the secondaries.
    6 days.....they were on +13 less than 2 weeks ago.

    MOE:
    Con: 27-30-33
    Lab: 37-40-43

    So leads between +4 and +16 are all essentially "noise"

    Even the UKIP surge from ~10 to ~15 is still within MOE from their low base (+/-7)
    Pretty much, though the thing to watch for is persistence. The MOE on 2-3 successive polls showing much the same thing is much lower, and it's probably safe to talk about a stable lead in the 7-10 range, even with the odd outlier outside it. I'd regard a lead of 4 or 16 as pretty interesting, especially if repeated. Similarly, UKIP's higher rating has been repeated so often that it's not in doubt.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    I've put up a rough and ready blog here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/ which includes the early discussion of Canada.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 4th June - CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -33

    That's the best Labour score for some time - nothing startling in the secondaries.
    6 days.....they were on +13 less than 2 weeks ago.

    MOE:
    Con: 27-30-33
    Lab: 37-40-43

    So leads between +4 and +16 are all essentially "noise"

    Even the UKIP surge from ~10 to ~15 is still within MOE from their low base (+/-7)
    it's probably safe to talk about a stable lead in the 7-10 range.
    Widen that to 7-13 and you get only 4 outliers in the past 6 months.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    What Labour will do is what the big unions tell them to do. It won't be in the manifesto, it will only show its face after the election if Ed gets into No 10. The choice between Labour and the Tories in 2015 will be starker than most people currently think.

    I expect you are rigyt. I am hoping for a big public sector pay rise. My pay has been frozen for five years now, and being on a final salary scheme this is making quite a difference to my projected pension.

    A Labour government would be quite good for me personally.
    Don't be silly. Labour introduced a 2% limit on public sector payrises even before the financial crisis occurred, back when the main worry was inflation.

    I don't agree with Osborne's policy, but in some respects he has been quite moderate. There has been only a modest cut in public sector pay - via the increase in pension contributions - and realistically Labour would have done the same thing. I heard one public sector union official say that the success of the November 30th strike was to force the government to agree to the pension offer that Labour would have offered in the first place.

    There is going to be precious little difference to choose between the two main parties at the next election.

    Even if - like Nabavi - one believes Osborne is following a perfectly judged policy, this must be a little bit depressing. All of the sound and fury of our supposed political debate, but the political elite is not capable of coming up with more than one policy. There are some interesting ideas out there, but they will not be part of mainstream political debate. There is a complete lack of original thinking from either HMG or Opposition.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    edited June 2013
    Syria: Qusair, which is apparently a strategically important location, has been entirely retaken by the Syrian army.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22778310
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The graph raises more questions than answers.

    The main question I think is this one:

    Why is A&E in crisis now, with the same level of A&E admissions as in 2011?

    It directly contradicts those blaming an increased demand on A&E as the cause of the problems, which is both the government (blaming the 2004 contract) and tim's otherwise reasonable theory (that it is due to cutting care for the elderly in the community).
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    @oblitussumme

    "there is going to be precious little difference to choose between the two main parties at the next election."

    Its not what voters will be told in the respective manifesto's that matters, its what happens afterwards that is ultimately important.
    One thing is certain, its going to be a dirty election campaign.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GeorgeWParker: Ref: BBC scoop on Lab not reversing £2.3bn child benefit cut. This cd be a rich vein of stories: will apply to vast maj of coalition cuts!

    @oflynnexpress: So Lab are not really interested in contributory principle, only in the opposite - more means-testing and redistribution.

    @oflynnexpress: Lab is not going to lose its reputation for taking money from those who work and giving it to those who won't. Very bad decision.
  • A very very sensible article about debt and the horrible systemic risks that we face from it:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10099326/Theres-a-worse-crisis-on-the-way-unless-we-get-serious-about-tackling-debt.html

    Lefties read and learn. This will dominate British politics in the years ahead. Get on the right side of it. (PM Redward and Chancellor Loretta will in all likelihood preside over a stunning collapse later in the decade).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm hugely encouraged that Labour is now starting to think about the hard decisions on public spending. It's a shame they haven't been doing so for the last couple of years. Still, better late than never.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @benedictbrogan: Labour accepting end of child benefit for wealthy + taking winter fuel allowance off wealthy suggests a soak the rich campaign in 2015
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741
    Patrick said:

    A very very sensible article about debt and the horrible systemic risks that we face from it:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10099326/Theres-a-worse-crisis-on-the-way-unless-we-get-serious-about-tackling-debt.html

    Lefties read and learn. This will dominate British politics in the years ahead. Get on the right side of it. (PM Redward and Chancellor Loretta will in all likelihood preside over a stunning collapse later in the decade).

    I have just commented that it is a little alarmist in that it ignores structural reasons for higher private debt in this country such as our tendency to own our homes and thus have secured mortgage debt. Like others he has also failed to give the government credit for reducing the structural deficit because this has been masked by automatic stabilisers driving up overall spending.

    But the overall thrust is right. We are still near the bottom of the hole and in government debt terms at least we are still digging. I agree this is the future for politics in this country for the foreseeable future. Restrained government spending, higher taxes, lower deficits and, eventually, some debt repayment. The agonies that Labour are going through this week in reluctantly accepting decisions that have already been made, like CB, is only the first step in a great march of readjusted expectations. The readers of Polly's piece are not going to like it.

  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited June 2013
    The nearer we get to the in/out referendum, the more it looks as though it will be too close to call. With the scare tactics to come, and the 'inertia' element in the background, the most likely result will be a narrow vote to stay in.

    If other countries were given a similar referendum, we could end up in the odd position of Britain, the most Eurosceptic country in the EU, being the only one to vote to stay in.

    Out of step as usual...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @foxinsoxuk

    You should count yourself lucky you are in a final salary pension scheme. I suspect there will be an inflationary bubble not too far ahead anyway, all that QE by Darling and Osborne has to find its way out somewhere.

    I do count myself lucky, but it was part of the deal I signed up to in the 1980's along with a working week of 90 hours as a junior doctor. I think the NHS super annuation scheme is more likely to survive a Labour govt than a Conservative or UKIP one, and that while I expect that NHS privatization will occur under both regimes (after all it was the last Labour govt that did most of it) under Labour it is likely to be done in a way that favors producer interests like mine.

    I was reading an interesting article in the FT a few weeks ago that suggested that by flattening the yield curve on gilts, QE discouraged lending and was therefore reducing the money supply M4 measure. If so it would be having deflationary impact at present, but presumably will have inflationary impact when stopped and even more so when it is ever reversed.

    I do not expect it to be reversed just as I do not expect our supposed Keynesians to run budget surpluses in the good times.
  • @DavidL

    Indeed. If something can't go on it won't.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Scott_P said:

    @benedictbrogan: Labour accepting end of child benefit for wealthy + taking winter fuel allowance off wealthy suggests a soak the rich campaign in 2015

    A few threads back I suggested that Labour would likely bring in any one of or all of the following policies:-

    1. HRT up to 50 - 60%/
    2. HRT imposed on incomes lower than currently.
    3. A mansion or wealth tax.
    4. Getting rid of inheritance tax exemptions.
    5. More council tax bands.
    6. More taxes on pensions.
    7. Possible removal of some of the tax-free savings options.
    8. Removal of all benefits for those on HRT.
    9. Higher indirect taxes e.g. car tax etc.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    Where's tim? It's 8.30am and not a dicky bird. LoL
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The graph raises more questions than answers.

    The main question I think is this one:

    Why is A&E in crisis now, with the same level of A&E admissions as in 2011?

    It directly contradicts those blaming an increased demand on A&E as the cause of the problems, which is both the government (blaming the 2004 contract) and tim's otherwise reasonable theory (that it is due to cutting care for the elderly in the community).
    Both of those changes are part of it. The answer to Tims concerns is that the CCGs are moving funds out of hospital and into community services, using the provisions of the Lansley bill.

    The big jump occurred after the change in the GP contract in part because the private companies given the out of hours contracts provide very thin care (the contract for Cornwall has had as few as one Dr covering a county of 400 thousand, making a visit to A and E in Truro a better option) and the fallout of the disastrous changes to junior doctors training in 2006-7. Most A and E departments have multiple staff vacancies particularly at senior levels and are dependent on strings of low productivity locum or Doctors who have only just qualified, and rightly need to check everything with a more senior Dr.

    It is chickens coming home to roost.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    Millsy said:

    Labour will follow the Conservatives on Europe sooner or later,

    By copying Cammie and offer an easily wriggled out of Cast Iron Pledge for an EU referendum that only the most gullible tories (and certainly not the kipper switch voters) will believe?

    They just might at that. ;^ )


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741
    @foxinsoxuk
    "I was reading an interesting article in the FT a few weeks ago that suggested that by flattening the yield curve on gilts, QE discouraged lending and was therefore reducing the money supply M4 measure. If so it would be having deflationary impact at present, but presumably will have inflationary impact when stopped and even more so when it is ever reversed"

    I am not a fan of QE but I don't understand that. If the yield curve is flattened (as it clearly has been) then, all other things being equal, government debt should be less attractive and lenders should be encouraged to seek yield elsewhere by lending to business etc. So QE should encourage private lending, not discourage it.

    It has at least 3 pernicious effects. Firstly, it debases the currency making it a tax on all of us. Secondly, it drives up asset prices which has been extremely beneficial for the rich in our society but has done nothing for the rest of us thereby increasing division and inequality. Finally, if, as Allister Heath is pointing out today, your major problem is a credit bubble, printing hundreds of billions of new money is not exactly solving the problem. There is a confusion there between short term liquidity (which admittedly is helped) and underlying stability (which is not).
  • The bringing of our welfare state into the affordable / sustainable territory will require the state to withdraw from some areas of activity and a radical rethink of costing and value for money everywhere. Raising taxes as per Cyclefree below will only kill growth. We just need to spend less. Alot less. And that includes benefits.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Some intriguing internals in the LabourList survation poll:

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf

    Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)

    AB: -8
    C1: -22
    C2: -14
    DE: -20

    Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
    M:+11
    F: +6
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Labour would be daft not to take a "soak the rich" approach in their election campaign. It's an essential part of a strategy to keep the Greens firmly under control. Those who disapprove of soaking the rich are unlikely to vote Labour in the first place.

    Whether or not it is good economics is beside the point. Of course, governing in that way is a different matter, as Francois Hollande is finding out.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    @foxinsoxuk
    "I was reading an interesting article in the FT a few weeks ago that suggested that by flattening the yield curve on gilts, QE discouraged lending and was therefore reducing the money supply M4 measure. If so it would be having deflationary impact at present, but presumably will have inflationary impact when stopped and even more so when it is ever reversed"

    I am not a fan of QE but I don't understand that. If the yield curve is flattened (as it clearly has been) then, all other things being equal, government debt should be less attractive and lenders should be encouraged to seek yield elsewhere by lending to business etc. So QE should encourage private lending, not discourage it.

    It has at least 3 pernicious effects. Firstly, it debases the currency making it a tax on all of us. Secondly, it drives up asset prices which has been extremely beneficial for the rich in our society but has done nothing for the rest of us thereby increasing division and inequality. Finally, if, as Allister Heath is pointing out today, your major problem is a credit bubble, printing hundreds of billions of new money is not exactly solving the problem. There is a confusion there between short term liquidity (which admittedly is helped) and underlying stability (which is not).

    Yet money M4 has contracted, representing bank lending, though there are other reasons for this also.

    It may explain why QE has not yet led to the explosion of inflation expected. It may do so in the future when stopped or undone.

    Like many sensible people I am busy taking advantage of the low interest environment by making increased capital payments on my mortgage. Let someone else stimulate the economy if they please, I shall prepare for the return of high interest rates.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    The graph raises more questions than answers.

    The main question I think is this one:

    Why is A&E in crisis now, with the same level of A&E admissions as in 2011?

    It directly contradicts those blaming an increased demand on A&E as the cause of the problems, which is both the government (blaming the 2004 contract) and tim's otherwise reasonable theory (that it is due to cutting care for the elderly in the community).
    It is chickens coming home to roost.
    Labour chickens?

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited June 2013
    Patrick said:

    A very very sensible article about debt and the horrible systemic risks that we face from it:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10099326/Theres-a-worse-crisis-on-the-way-unless-we-get-serious-about-tackling-debt.html

    Lefties read and learn. This will dominate British politics in the years ahead. Get on the right side of it. (PM Redward and Chancellor Loretta will in all likelihood preside over a stunning collapse later in the decade).

    Does Allister Heath understand anything about economics?

    More to the point - does Patrick? Because this article points to the fact there will be no decent recovery between now and 2015 election.

    And that dooms the Tories.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,314

    The nearer we get to the in/out referendum, the more it looks as though it will be too close to call. With the scare tactics to come, and the 'inertia' element in the background, the most likely result will be a narrow vote to stay in.

    If other countries were given a similar referendum, we could end up in the odd position of Britain, the most Eurosceptic country in the EU, being the only one to vote to stay in.

    Out of step as usual...

    In your eyes, what would the organisational effects of an 'in/out' referendum be? In other words, would we pull out of all European organisations, or just some?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ed's EU travails continue:

    "Half of Ed Miliband’s Shadow Cabinet want the Labour leader to commit the party to an in-out referendum on Europe, it was claimed last night.
    In a challenge to Mr Miliband’s authority, 15 Labour MPs and the party’s biggest donor launched a campaign yesterday to force a policy change on the issue."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2336011/Labour-revolt-Europe-poll-Half-Shadow-Cabinet-tell-Ed-Miliband-referendum.html#ixzz2VKGO7CGk
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The graph raises more questions than answers.

    The main question I think is this one:

    Why is A&E in crisis now, with the same level of A&E admissions as in 2011?

    It directly contradicts those blaming an increased demand on A&E as the cause of the problems, which is both the government (blaming the 2004 contract) and tim's otherwise reasonable theory (that it is due to cutting care for the elderly in the community).
    It is chickens coming home to roost.
    Labour chickens?

    In large part it was. I hate Patricia Hewitt more than any health minister of my lifetime.

    Nearly equal in blame are the leaders of the medical education establishment in the UK, particularly the leaders of the medical Royal Colleges and the GMC, PMETB and Deaneries. Hence their silence on this aspect of the crisis.

    If you do not believe me then enquire of your local A and E dept, how many vacant posts do they have, and at what level, and how many locums or F1/F2 doctors (the most junior level).
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited June 2013
    With regard to wanting to leave the EU, I wonder how much impact holidaying in Spain/Greece/Cyprus etc has on the attitude of the average British voter.

    I was in Andalusia a few weeks back, swanning off on a golf trip/p*ss up (an excuse to get away with the boys) to a place just outside Jerez. We were collectively stunned by all the empty properties and aura of abandonment. Hollywood Hills style homes adorning the brush hillsides and overlooking the fairways, with nobody living in them. And Jerez was eerie; quiet, full of empty shops and yet plenty of cocaine and prostitutes on offer!?!

    It was easy to see that the economy has tanked and driving cross-country back to Malaga through the hilly olive farms southern Spain looked nothing short of third world. All pretty desperate.

    If we in the UK - with all our muscle and might - are staring into the abyss economy-wise and struggling to dig ourselves out you have to wonder how Spain or Greece will manage to do so.

    Perhaps untacking ourselves from the relentless mess that those countries are going to find themselves in is becoming more and more appealing to the holidaying Brits. Like me, they are probably returning thinking, geez, what a mess. Broadly speaking, despite it's myriad faults, I'm not that keen on just upping and leaving the EU, but it is all a worry.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741
    edited June 2013

    DavidL said:

    @foxinsoxuk
    "I was reading an interesting article in the FT a few weeks ago that suggested that by flattening the yield curve on gilts, QE discouraged lending and was therefore reducing the money supply M4 measure. If so it would be having deflationary impact at present, but presumably will have inflationary impact when stopped and even more so when it is ever reversed"

    I am not a fan of QE but I don't understand that. If the yield curve is flattened (as it clearly has been) then, all other things being equal, government debt should be less attractive and lenders should be encouraged to seek yield elsewhere by lending to business etc. So QE should encourage private lending, not discourage it.

    It has at least 3 pernicious effects. Firstly, it debases the currency making it a tax on all of us. Secondly, it drives up asset prices which has been extremely beneficial for the rich in our society but has done nothing for the rest of us thereby increasing division and inequality. Finally, if, as Allister Heath is pointing out today, your major problem is a credit bubble, printing hundreds of billions of new money is not exactly solving the problem. There is a confusion there between short term liquidity (which admittedly is helped) and underlying stability (which is not).

    Yet money M4 has contracted, representing bank lending, though there are other reasons for this also.

    It may explain why QE has not yet led to the explosion of inflation expected. It may do so in the future when stopped or undone.

    Like many sensible people I am busy taking advantage of the low interest environment by making increased capital payments on my mortgage. Let someone else stimulate the economy if they please, I shall prepare for the return of high interest rates.
    Totally agree with that last point in particular. Anyone who thinks the current low interest rates are an opportunity to get cheap borrowing is a fool. The regrowth of buy to let over the last year suggests that there are plenty about.

    M4 has been driven down by deleveraging of the banks. This has been driven by new capital requirements which were introduced at exactly the wrong time in the cycle and tougher rules on non performing debt. As banks shrink their balance sheets total lending falls which creates a lack of credit in the system.

    This is why Osborne's commercial lending scheme is so important and why decisions on breaking up RBS creating a "good bank" that was in a position to lend should have been taken some time ago. The lack of credit for investment by SMEs is probably the largest single reason for low growth.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    The only surprise is that anyone is surprised by what Labour has said and chosen to intimate/leak this week. For anyone listening it was always going to be the case. Once something you oppose has happened and the money has been spent elsewhere however much you'd like things to be different you have to accept they're not. The issue in 2015 looks like centring on who people trust more to use restricted resources most fairly. It will be an interesting argument, but Labour's leads in polling around the topic of "understands people like me and my family" could prove to be important.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    antifrank said:

    I'm hugely encouraged that Labour is now starting to think about the hard decisions on public spending. It's a shame they haven't been doing so for the last couple of years. Still, better late than never.

    Of course they were thinking about them. They were just not telling you what they were thinking...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2013
    Ed so understands people like me , he has pinned his colours to the Hollande model. That's going well isn't it.. It all reminds me of Dennis Healey's misquoted "squeeze the rich until the pips squeak" approach.
  • The nearer we get to the in/out referendum, the more it looks as though it will be too close to call. With the scare tactics to come, and the 'inertia' element in the background, the most likely result will be a narrow vote to stay in.

    If other countries were given a similar referendum, we could end up in the odd position of Britain, the most Eurosceptic country in the EU, being the only one to vote to stay in.

    Out of step as usual...

    In your eyes, what would the organisational effects of an 'in/out' referendum be? In other words, would we pull out of all European organisations, or just some?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Labour's leads in polling around the topic of "understands people like me and my family" could prove to be important.

    ...were it not offset by Labour's simultaneous lead in "most likely to piss my hard earned taxes up the wall or spend on them workshy scroungers"
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    Jame's Caan defence of jobs for his daughters this morning is totally unbeleiveable.

    Personally I think it's natural to help your offspring, but just be open about it.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Patrick said:

    The bringing of our welfare state into the affordable / sustainable territory will require the state to withdraw from some areas of activity and a radical rethink of costing and value for money everywhere. Raising taxes as per Cyclefree below will only kill growth. We just need to spend less. Alot less. And that includes benefits.

    This analysis ignores the fact that benefits are somebody's income that will be spent in the economy.

    We cannot afford NOT to have a well funded welfare system.

    One of the key differences in this crisis compared to the Great Depression is the widespread existence of sophisticated welfare systems in modern countries.

    In the UK, it certainly stopped the unemployment rate spiralling into the teens.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: Labour accepting the end of universal child benefit, 1 of the pillars of the Beveridge welfare state, suggests the 45 settlement up 4 grabs
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @racingkate: Austerity measures finally go my way. Middle lane drivers to be fined. Assuming this extends to steroid version? #fastlanehogs #movemuppets!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    The only surprise is that anyone is surprised by what Labour has said and chosen to intimate/leak this week. For anyone listening it was always going to be the case.

    So we should assume that everything that Labour has not explicitly said it would reverse, just denounced as bringing about the end of civilised society as we know it, will not be reversed?

    And the procession of "U-turns" from here to 2015 will help their economic credibility how exactly?

    At least posh folk are more prepared to believe Labour - it's their traditional working class supporters who are more unforgiving.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Indeed, Mr. P. Voting against the £26,000 benefit cap will stick with Labour and will be something both Coalition parties will be happy to beat them with.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    Good to see labour finally opening up to reality on the economics... Osborne wins again.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ed's economic blueprint

    @afneil: Foreign direct investment (FDI) into France fell by 13% last year; but French FDI into the UK surged by 87%, according to Ernst & Young
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Some intriguing internals in the LabourList survation poll:

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf

    Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)

    AB: -8
    C1: -22
    C2: -14
    DE: -20

    Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
    M:+11
    F: +6

    C1s, C2s, DEs more likely to believe the fiction that government finances behave like that of a household?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Ed's EU travails continue:

    "Half of Ed Miliband’s Shadow Cabinet want the Labour leader to commit the party to an in-out referendum on Europe, it was claimed last night.
    In a challenge to Mr Miliband’s authority, 15 Labour MPs and the party’s biggest donor launched a campaign yesterday to force a policy change on the issue."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2336011/Labour-revolt-Europe-poll-Half-Shadow-Cabinet-tell-Ed-Miliband-referendum.html#ixzz2VKGO7CGk

    So when tim says 50-50 he means the sane 50% of the shad cabinet wan a referendum and rEd is in the other 50% - they ones who are doing as Unite tell them.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    BenM said:

    Some intriguing internals in the LabourList survation poll:

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf

    Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)

    AB: -8
    C1: -22
    C2: -14
    DE: -20

    Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
    M:+11
    F: +6

    C1s, C2s, DEs more likely to believe the fiction that government finances behave like that of a household?
    Yeah...those thickos... right on Ben....
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    O/T

    I don't know about SeanT stirring up the natives on the Telegraph, the article about Bercow has over 1000 comments and it was only put up this morning!
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    What is the point of the Labour party?

    First they support deficit reduction in the abstract but oppose every actual cut.

    Then they specifically make arguments about the universality of benefits and disagree with coalition policies all the time, by default.

    Then finally they meekly change their minds entirely and say they won;t reverse some stuff, but are still unclear about other things, and seem to have abandoned all attempt at a clear message or strategy.

    Wheels totally come off this week - hilarious to watch!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 53s
    Amazed at Labour's child-benefit statement. Didn't see that one coming in a million years. Much more of this and I'll be joining DUEMA.

    Ed has just woken up in a cold sweat....
  • @DavidL

    Yes. Interest rate risk is absolutely going to destroy some countries. Will French govt debt stay below 2% as their economy dies and taxes go up? Or Japan? They have 250% GDP and fully 25% pf their tax revenue is spent on debt service - a rise of interest rates to 4% (hardly outrageous) would see them having no money AT ALL to pay for anything other than debt service.

    An assumption that the current low interest regime is a permamnent fixture as debt/GDP steadily climbs is pie in the sky. Interest rates will sooner or later revert to the right level.

    We have 90%+ debt, a horrific deficit and a lost credit rating. But what we do have is the belief in the markets that the chancellor wants to address deficits and debts. The BIG risk of Redward and Loretta getting in is that this market belief might evaporate overnight. And a UK with 2%, 3%, 4%, 5% base rates would be a very different beast from today. THIS is the political challenge for Redward, or his looming premiership might die in the first weeks of its life.

    So Polly can can wail 'spend, spend, spend' - but I bet she has no mortgage.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    On topic, this must be a disappointing poll for the Outers given the heady anti-EU propaganda they've been lapping up for 30 years.

    Suggests In would win a referendum.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    BenM said:

    Some intriguing internals in the LabourList survation poll:

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf

    Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)

    AB: -8
    C1: -22
    C2: -14
    DE: -20

    Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
    M:+11
    F: +6

    C1s, C2s, DEs more likely to believe the fiction that government finances behave like that of a household?
    Yeah...those thickos... right on Ben....
    It wasn't an argument I'd have advanced myself....nor do I believe it - I think they look at the top of the Labour Party and see people virtually indistinguishable from those at the top of the Tory party - the sort of people for whom a "Polish plumber" was a boon, not a threat.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    I'm hugely encouraged that Labour is now starting to think about the hard decisions on public spending. It's a shame they haven't been doing so for the last couple of years. Still, better late than never.

    Of course they were thinking about them. They were just not telling you what they were thinking...
    Opposing the removal of child benefit for higher rate taxpayers, which has been very popular since it was first announced, and opposing the £26,000 overall cap on benefits (likewise) is rather powerful evidence to the contrary.
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited June 2013
    Out of step as usual...


    In your eyes, what would the organisational effects of an 'in/out' referendum be? In other words, would we pull out of all European organisations, or just some?







    The key move is to quit the corrupt and negative EU. Its malign influence, which the UK handles particularly ineffectively, will be neutralised the day we give two years notice to leave.

    The economy will recover even quicker than after black (white?) Wednesday 20 years ago. The reason that it will be even quicker because of how cash-rich and 'ready' most of British industry actually is. It will be amazing how the atmosphere will change on the day the decision is made to leave the EU. The positive improvement in the attitude and culture, and the can-do approach that will be released, will be of great benefit to everybody.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    Some intriguing internals in the LabourList survation poll:

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf

    Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)

    AB: -8
    C1: -22
    C2: -14
    DE: -20

    Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
    M:+11
    F: +6

    C1s, C2s, DEs more likely to believe the fiction that government finances behave like that of a household?
    Yeah...those thickos... right on Ben....
    Not necessarily thick - more like have more important things to worry about than the intricacies of how an economy behaves.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    BenM said:

    Some intriguing internals in the LabourList survation poll:

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf

    Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)

    AB: -8
    C1: -22
    C2: -14
    DE: -20

    Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
    M:+11
    F: +6

    C1s, C2s, DEs more likely to believe the fiction that government finances behave like that of a household?
    Yeah...those thickos... right on Ben....
    Labour "understand people like me". Trust in the economy highest among ABs. Labour the rich folks party it seems.
  • @BenM

    GDP growth is the god you worship before. Interest rates a minor irritant to be ignored.

    Your prescription of deficit spending drives an inexorable increase in debt/GDP. Unless growth exceeds the deficit (oh and there's a pig flying by my window).

    We know where that leads. Default.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Some intriguing internals in the LabourList survation poll:

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf

    Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)

    AB: -8
    C1: -22
    C2: -14
    DE: -20

    Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
    M:+11
    F: +6

    C1s, C2s, DEs more likely to believe the fiction that government finances behave like that of a household?
    Yeah...those thickos... right on Ben....
    Not necessarily thick - more like have more important things to worry about than the intricacies of how an economy behaves.
    Oh please....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    The only surprise is that anyone is surprised by what Labour has said and chosen to intimate/leak this week. For anyone listening it was always going to be the case.

    So we should assume that everything that Labour has not explicitly said it would reverse, just denounced as bringing about the end of civilised society as we know it, will not be reversed?

    And the procession of "U-turns" from here to 2015 will help their economic credibility how exactly?

    At least posh folk are more prepared to believe Labour - it's their traditional working class supporters who are more unforgiving.

    We should assume that Labour believes that Osborne has made a series a very poor calls that have made a bad situation even worse than it had to be, but that at the same time we are where we are and we have to live with that as much as we would not want to in the ideal world.

    If I remember correctly, David Cameron was extolling the virtues of universal benefits throughout the 2010 GE campaign. Now it could be that he was lying through his teeth; or maybe times changed. Which do you think it was?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Some intriguing internals in the LabourList survation poll:

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf

    Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)

    AB: -8
    C1: -22
    C2: -14
    DE: -20

    Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
    M:+11
    F: +6

    C1s, C2s, DEs more likely to believe the fiction that government finances behave like that of a household?
    Yeah...those thickos... right on Ben....
    Not necessarily thick - more like have more important things to worry about than the intricacies of how an economy behaves.
    Ben you have no right to comment on this matter, please check your privilege.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    George Osborne - stupid.
    George Osborne's scheme to boost the housing market through state mortgage subsidies has been dubbed one of the "most stupid economic ideas" of the past 30 years by a leading City commentator.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/04/george-osborne-help-to-buy-moronic
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @CarlottaVance

    'A future Labour government would not reverse cuts to child benefit made by the coalition, the BBC has learned."

    How many u-turns so far this week?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Patrick said:

    @BenM

    GDP growth is the god you worship before. Interest rates a minor irritant to be ignored.

    Your prescription of deficit spending drives an inexorable increase in debt/GDP. Unless growth exceeds the deficit (oh and there's a pig flying by my window).

    We know where that leads. Default.

    Nope.

    2009-10 +2pc growth led to downward revisions in the deficit.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Some intriguing internals in the LabourList survation poll:

    http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/3.-EMBARGO-Tuesday-10pm.pdf

    Trust in Labour on the economy highest among ABs (net)

    AB: -8
    C1: -22
    C2: -14
    DE: -20

    Men are more convinced than women that we should spend more to invest in jobs if it means borrowing more (net)
    M:+11
    F: +6

    C1s, C2s, DEs more likely to believe the fiction that government finances behave like that of a household?
    Yeah...those thickos... right on Ben....
    Not necessarily thick - more like have more important things to worry about than the intricacies of how an economy behaves.
    Oh please....
    Ignorance is always an opportunity to be exploited for your (less than) average conservative.
  • If you sat down for just one second, you'd see that you can't call a cut 'ideological' as a criticism/motivation and then basically say you wouldn't repeal it.

    Well, it turns out that you can.

    There's a name for that type of doublethink, isn't there?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Good Services PMI. All three indicators showing growth. Encouraging.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    edited June 2013
    BenM said:

    On topic, this must be a disappointing poll for the Outers given the heady anti-EU propaganda they've been lapping up for 30 years.

    Suggests In would win a referendum.

    Marginally - 8-11 In, EVS Out at a guess could be how a bookie could price it.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    john_zims said:

    @CarlottaVance

    'A future Labour government would not reverse cuts to child benefit made by the coalition, the BBC has learned."

    How many u-turns so far this week?

    @paulwaugh: I'm told Ed Mili won't be specific re child benefit cuts tmrw (cos Ed Balls insists he can't write Budget now). But they won't be reversed.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @RicHolden: Labour forced into yet another embarrassing U-turn as they now say they back Child Benefit changes they once 'vehemently' opposed.
  • From the other day, it got lost as I'm prepping a job interview. I didn't mean to ignore.

    david_herdson - "But that distrust was primarily a visual thing (hence the discrepancy between the TV and radio figures). It was also that Nixon looked as if he needed a shave. Quite how the factors played off we'll never no as it's impossible to do controlled exercises but their relative visual appearances - in the widest sense - clearly played a part and given how close the election was, perhaps a decisive one."

    I don't disagree that they were visual issues or, indeed, that they probably had an effect - but the point of 'looks' is that I'd suggest 'attractiveness' is more permanent than things like being under-prepared for a hot studio (the sweats) and failing to have a shave.

    Neither really affects the unlying 'attractiveness' of the candidates and, if you're aware of them, you can practice or prepare solutions for them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Brogan on the Tory Taliban:

    "Where it will cause headaches for Dave, however, is among his MPs. I am struck by the violence of emotions voiced by some MPs who are raging at the way Mr Cameron imposed this policy on them. A former minister, for example, says he will 'never forgive' the PM 'for what he has done to this party'. The danger is that gay marriage fades as an issue in the news as the country embraces the change and gets on with it, but that a significant section of the Conservative parliamentary party doesn't let go, and nurses its anger on this one for months and months."
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    @foxinsoxuk
    "I was reading an interesting article in the FT a few weeks ago that suggested that by flattening the yield curve on gilts, QE discouraged lending and was therefore reducing the money supply M4 measure. If so it would be having deflationary impact at present, but presumably will have inflationary impact when stopped and even more so when it is ever reversed"

    I am not a fan of QE but I don't understand that. If the yield curve is flattened (as it clearly has been) then, all other things being equal, government debt should be less attractive and lenders should be encouraged to seek yield elsewhere by lending to business etc. So QE should encourage private lending, not discourage it.

    It has at least 3 pernicious effects. Firstly, it debases the currency making it a tax on all of us. Secondly, it drives up asset prices which has been extremely beneficial for the rich in our society but has done nothing for the rest of us thereby increasing division and inequality. Finally, if, as Allister Heath is pointing out today, your major problem is a credit bubble, printing hundreds of billions of new money is not exactly solving the problem. There is a confusion there between short term liquidity (which admittedly is helped) and underlying stability (which is not).

    Yet money M4 has contracted, representing bank lending, though there are other reasons for this also.

    It may explain why QE has not yet led to the explosion of inflation expected. It may do so in the future when stopped or undone.

    Like many sensible people I am busy taking advantage of the low interest environment by making increased capital payments on my mortgage. Let someone else stimulate the economy if they please, I shall prepare for the return of high interest rates.
    Totally agree with that last point in particular. Anyone who thinks the current low interest rates are an opportunity to get cheap borrowing is a fool. The regrowth of buy to let over the last year suggests that there are plenty about.

    M4 has been driven down by deleveraging of the banks. This has been driven by new capital requirements which were introduced at exactly the wrong time in the cycle and tougher rules on non performing debt. As banks shrink their balance sheets total lending falls which creates a lack of credit in the system.

    This is why Osborne's commercial lending scheme is so important and why decisions on breaking up RBS creating a "good bank" that was in a position to lend should have been taken some time ago. The lack of credit for investment by SMEs is probably the largest single reason for low growth.

    Many companies have built up quite big cash surpluses, my stocks have paid some big special dividends this year.

    SMEs may be struggling for credit but the bigger companies are paying down thier debts. All this personal and business deleveraging must be influencing the M4 figure.

    It is good news, the opposite of the inflationary credit boom. Still a long way to go though, and about time the govt did its bit too.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    BenM said:

    Good Services PMI. All three indicators showing growth. Encouraging.

    Especially compared with the Eurozone countries... UK beginning to stream away from them.

    How long will that have to continue whilst labour try to keep up the 'osbornes failed' line...

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    The only surprise is that anyone is surprised by what Labour has said and chosen to intimate/leak this week. For anyone listening it was always going to be the case.

    So we should assume that everything that Labour has not explicitly said it would reverse, just denounced as bringing about the end of civilised society as we know it, will not be reversed?

    And the procession of "U-turns" from here to 2015 will help their economic credibility how exactly?

    At least posh folk are more prepared to believe Labour - it's their traditional working class supporters who are more unforgiving.

    We should assume that Labour believes that Osborne has made a series a very poor calls that have made a bad situation even worse than it had to be, but that at the same time we are where we are and we have to live with that as much as we would not want to in the ideal world.
    SO - we know Labour are given more of the 'benefit of the doubt' among ABs like your good self - how are they going to persuade the C1/C2 and DE's - many of whom supported the Welfare reforms Labour so vociferously opposed, but are now U-turning on?

  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    I blame Osborne

    @iainmartin1: RT @AllisterHeath: Good services survey: UK PMI for May 54.9, up from 52.9 - the economy is growing in all areas. Definite return to growth.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Jame's Caan defence of jobs for his daughters this morning is totally unbeleiveable.

    Personally I think it's natural to help your offspring, but just be open about it.

    I agree that it is natural to help out people you know, including your family, but I wouldn't limit it to just your offspring.

    The reason this appears to be a problem is that Western Society has abandoned an approach of "broadly try to look after everyone", in favour of an increasingly ruthless meritocracy.

    Helping out the people you know is a natural part of a society that looks to find a respectable place for everyone to contribute and be fairly rewarded for that contribution, but in a meritocracy where those that "fail" are left struggling on zero-hours contracts, etc, such assistance is cheating.

    There is no way to resolve such a contradiction. One has to choose.
  • @BenM

    2009-10 +2pc growth led to downward revisions in the deficit.

    Lord help us. So we had 2% growth. And what % deficits? 'Downward revision' from a gazillion % to merely something utterly horrific. What happened to our debt/GDP after 2008 remind me?

    There is no risk of default or interest rate spikes in Benworld is there?

    But when this is exactly what does transpire in the real world what does the IMF always mandate? Cut yer spending back, balance budgets, supply side reform, sound money, behave.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    BenM said:

    George Osborne - stupid.

    George Osborne's scheme to boost the housing market through state mortgage subsidies has been dubbed one of the "most stupid economic ideas" of the past 30 years by a leading City commentator.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/04/george-osborne-help-to-buy-moronic


    Ah, you should have seen what Edwards was saying about Brown and Labour in 2009. Anyway his prediction of gold at $10,000 seems unlikely.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Regarding these polls, I'm pretty impressed with the British people that 74% recognise Angela Merkel, 23% can recognise Jose Barroso, and 23% can recognise Cathy Ashton!

    http://news.sky.com/story/1099455/sky-news-poll-reveals-huge-divide-on-europe

    The power most Brits want Cameron to repatriate is control of immigration. I think this should be the yardstick of whether his repatriation will be seen as successful or not.
This discussion has been closed.