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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s Scottish collapse appears so dramatic now because las

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s Scottish collapse appears so dramatic now because last time it had a very different election compared with elsewhere

How LAB had a very different election in Scotland in 2010 compared with England and Wales pic.twitter.com/9iG3CGDHIG

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited January 2015
    Scotland it appears is a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I think PMQs could be entertaining tomorrow. I expect Murphy to feature prominently
  • Is the next area of "political fun" within Labour going to be Trident because of the influence of the scottish election battle? Now if only Labour had re-directed its resources.....
  • dr_spyn said:
    Along the lines of?
    Do you know who I am... said Murph.
    Skeletor? said Abbot.
  • It seems all so different to that heady Friday in September when the nat's were licking their wounds.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited January 2015
    Scott_P said:

    I think PMQs could be entertaining tomorrow. I expect Murphy to feature prominently

    Nah, NHS.

    Cameron can remind everyone who messed up the negotiations over GPs contracts, and why they have to go to A&E outside of 9 to 6.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Labour had a new Scottish leader last time, and the Lib Dems had lost their Scottish leader from 5 years previously.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    But is this at all unusual?

    Wales swung more heavily to Labour in 1992 General Election than England -- when the Labour leader was Welsh.
  • Scotland it appears is a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.

    ... "because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing."
  • OGH "LAB had a very different election in Scotland in 2010 compared with England and Wales"
    Yes, the UK Labour Leader was Scottish.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    But is this at all unusual?

    Wales swung more heavily to Labour in 1992 General Election than England -- when the Labour leader was Welsh.

    There is no doubt that Gordo was more popular in Scotland than Cameron.

    And Ed isn't...
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited January 2015
    Good point, Labour overachieved in Scotland in 2010, they outperformed the final Scottish polls by 5%+. A fall from the late thirties to early thirties (if that's where they end up) wouldn't have sounded quite as bad.
  • Scotland it appears is a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.

    ... "because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing."
    You miss out one word...

    ...I was talking about the PB Tories Labour MPs complaining about the mansion tax.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @thetimes: David Miliband hints at a political comeback after saying he misses Britain http://t.co/vqww1Zb4OH (PA) http://t.co/Hde0fNsJxe

    He thinks Ed is going to lose...

    @MShapland: The Idea David Miliband could come back will make some Labour rank and file WANT to lose 2015....
  • Ukip's website is currently down amid claims that a small record label from Oxford has bought up its current domain.

    The issues were first noticed this morning, when the ukip.org address showed a page that often appears when ownership of a domain expires - in this instance offering links to walk in showers and subscriptions to the Telegraph newspaper.

    Soon after, a mischievous record label claimed to have purchased the the address for a year - tweeting what the company claimed was a recent for their order.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-01-06/ukip-website-down-as-record-label-claims-to-have-bought-domain/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Day 1 fought on Labour's terrain...

    @BuzzFeedUK: Labour is “boasting” about cutting the arts budget
    http://t.co/QB5z1yQ6vn http://t.co/HjjJwr5ASt
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    Ukip's website is currently down amid claims that a small record label from Oxford has bought up its current domain.

    The issues were first noticed this morning, when the ukip.org address showed a page that often appears when ownership of a domain expires - in this instance offering links to walk in showers and subscriptions to the Telegraph newspaper.

    Soon after, a mischievous record label claimed to have purchased the the address for a year - tweeting what the company claimed was a recent for their order.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-01-06/ukip-website-down-as-record-label-claims-to-have-bought-domain/

    Off to a flying start! It doesn't fill you with confidence about their competence (yes, story and Labour are bad, but not that bad!).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ScotTories: What did Jim Murphy fail to mention during his interview on Scotland 2015 last night? It's almost like the phrase is banned. #wheresmili

    @ScotTories: He gets through an entire seven minute interview without uttering the words "Ed Miliband". #wheresmili
    http://t.co/Q6XR4l3XtW
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Must be a first for everything, Diane Abbott is trending on Twitter.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    Scotland it appears is a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.

    Scotland has a very different land ownership pattern and legal history, and historically more heavy industry, which tends to skew it to the Left IMHO. It also clearly has a distinct cultural identity and sense of nationhood.

    On the other hand, we all live on the same island and share the same propensity to moan about the weather, some cultural traditions (pubs, fish & chips etc.) currency, language, a Protestant reformed national church, and an acerbic sense of humour.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ScotTories: Not to be outdone, his deputy Kezia Dugdale gets through 17 minutes without saying the magic words. #wheresmili
    http://t.co/eHH8pkpQ4K
  • RobD said:

    Off to a flying start! It doesn't fill you with confidence about their competence (yes, story and Labour are bad, but not that bad!).

    It seems to be fine - looks as though UKIP didn't screw up (it is registered in their name until March 16th) but there was (deliberate or accidental) fooling around with the DNS servers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    dr_spyn said:

    Must be a first for everything, Diane Abbott is trending on Twitter.

    *innocent face*
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    RobD said:

    Off to a flying start! It doesn't fill you with confidence about their competence (yes, story and Labour are bad, but not that bad!).

    It seems to be fine - looks as though UKIP didn't screw up (it is registered in their name until March 16th) but there was (deliberate or accidental) fooling around with the DNS servers.
    I was just about to say that if UKIP had forgotten to renew it, it would be a massive screw-up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LadPolitics: Correction! (had them the wrong way round)
    Rochester & Strood latest odds:
    8/15 @KellyTolhurst (Con)
    6/4 @MarkReckless (UKIP)

    Kippers can fill their boots...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    RobD said:

    Off to a flying start! It doesn't fill you with confidence about their competence (yes, story and Labour are bad, but not that bad!).

    It seems to be fine - looks as though UKIP didn't screw up (it is registered in their name until March 16th) but there was (deliberate or accidental) fooling around with the DNS servers.
    Ah, thanks! I hope it isn't deliberate, that wouldn't be kosher.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Question is: to what degree will Labour recover in England? I can see it doing ok in London. I'm not sure about everywhere else.

    I'm willing to bet (and have) that they will fall short of expectations in the key Middle England marginals.

    Plenty of Labourites are desperate to do well this year to disprove what they believe is the New Labour fallacy that you have to be in the soft-centre to win. One does wonder if folk like David Miliband and Blair are almost as keen to be vindicated.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Labour can appear as disunited, crazed and incompetent as they like, but as of yet there is no real 'poll pressure' on them.

    They are still doing OK there.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2015
    With the 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (http://electionforecast.co.uk/) showing the SNP winning a credible 33 seats at the GE, perhaps we should give this model more credence than that of Stephen Fisher which inexplicably barely has them reaching double figures.
    Today's updated projection has the parties as follows:

    Labour ............. 288
    Conservative .... 278
    SNP ................... 33
    LibDems ............. 26
    UKIP .................... 3
    Plaid Cymru .......... 2
    Greens ................. 1
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Osborne's economy hits the brakes in election year and everyone wants to talk about websites ?

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/06/uk-services-sector-growth-slows-december
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    a Protestant reformed national church

    That's a rather broad attempt at unifying the Church of England and Church of Scotland there.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Osborne's economy hits the brakes

    You mean the rate of growth has returned to trend, right?
  • RobD said:

    Ukip's website is currently down amid claims that a small record label from Oxford has bought up its current domain.

    The issues were first noticed this morning, when the ukip.org address showed a page that often appears when ownership of a domain expires - in this instance offering links to walk in showers and subscriptions to the Telegraph newspaper.

    Soon after, a mischievous record label claimed to have purchased the the address for a year - tweeting what the company claimed was a recent for their order.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-01-06/ukip-website-down-as-record-label-claims-to-have-bought-domain/

    Off to a flying start! It doesn't fill you with confidence about their competence (yes, story and Labour are bad, but not that bad!).
    Looking elsewhere, it appears to be a mistake not of UKIP's making

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/06/ukip_website_broken/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Mr_Eugenides: Day 2 of the Labour general election campaign. How’s it going so far? Well, let’s just call it “up and down” and leave it at that.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Ed has been busy today.

    Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 10m10 minutes ago
    Labour will make sure the NHS in England has the time to care. With Labour:
    20,000 nurses
    8,000 GPs
    5,000 care workers
    3,000 midwives

    More tractor stats comrades.
  • Scotland it appears is a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.

    Scotland has a very different land ownership pattern and legal history, and historically more heavy industry, which tends to skew it to the Left IMHO. It also clearly has a distinct cultural identity and sense of nationhood.

    On the other hand, we all live on the same island and share the same propensity to moan about the weather, some cultural traditions (pubs, fish & chips etc.) currency, language, a Protestant reformed national church, and an acerbic sense of humour.
    More unites Scotland and England than divides it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    dr_spyn said:

    Ed has been busy today.

    Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 10m10 minutes ago
    Labour will make sure the NHS in England has the time to care. With Labour:
    20,000 nurses
    8,000 GPs
    5,000 care workers
    3,000 midwives

    More tractor stats comrades.

    Nurses paid for by mansion tax, what about the others?
  • Osborne's economy hits the brakes in election year and everyone wants to talk about websites ?

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/06/uk-services-sector-growth-slows-december

    Already discussed and put into context this morning.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    More tractor stats comrades.

    If you look at the comments under the threads on the A&E story the most liked comments are about how the influx of immigrants is choking the service.

    Whether that is true or not, labour assumptions that an A&E crisis is great for them are not necessarily correct.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    Scotland it appears is a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.

    Scotland has a very different land ownership pattern and legal history, and historically more heavy industry, which tends to skew it to the Left IMHO. It also clearly has a distinct cultural identity and sense of nationhood.

    On the other hand, we all live on the same island and share the same propensity to moan about the weather, some cultural traditions (pubs, fish & chips etc.) currency, language, a Protestant reformed national church, and an acerbic sense of humour.
    More unites Scotland and England than divides it.
    I agree with you.
  • This is why I love Scotland and was this you DavidL?

    Police pulled over a man riding a space hopper through a Dundee underpass in the early hours of New Year's Day.

    The man was seen trying to bounce his way through the dual carriageway Marketgait underpass, which has no pedestrian footpath, at about 03:00.

    One witness said the man "looked very drunk" as he was chased down the tunnel by officers.

    Police Scotland confirmed that the man had been spoken to, but no formal action was taken.

    Witness Jamie Shankland told BBC Scotland's Newsdrive programme it was a surreal sight.

    He said: "It was like a scene from the movie The Hangover."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-30681476
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    @thetimes: David Miliband hints at a political comeback after saying he misses Britain http://t.co/vqww1Zb4OH (PA) http://t.co/Hde0fNsJxe

    He thinks Ed is going to lose...

    @MShapland: The Idea David Miliband could come back will make some Labour rank and file WANT to lose 2015....

    Goodness, everytime I'm exasperated by Ed, I get a reminder of how it could've been even worse. David really has nothing to offer but his own vanity.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,123
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Ed has been busy today.

    Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 10m10 minutes ago
    Labour will make sure the NHS in England has the time to care. With Labour:
    20,000 nurses
    8,000 GPs
    5,000 care workers
    3,000 midwives

    More tractor stats comrades.

    Nurses paid for by mansion tax, what about the others?
    8,000 GPs. When? It takes years and years to train a doctor. This is a promise that cannot be met by 2020 election.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    8,000 GPs. When? It takes years and years to train a doctor. This is a promise that cannot be met by 2020 election.

    Hire immigrants.

    Oh, wait...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    On topic:- the thread raises good points. It's been overestimated how much Scotland is Labour's "heartland" -- 2010 was very much an exception, their share of the vote there in 1997-2005 was barely above their UK-wide share of the vote. In fact, in '97, Scotland was actually one of their LEAST successful regions in the whole of the UK.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Incidentally Jim Murphy has pissed off Scottish rugby fans by calling the privileged middle-class elitists a few days ago
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Ed has been busy today.

    Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 10m10 minutes ago
    Labour will make sure the NHS in England has the time to care. With Labour:
    20,000 nurses
    8,000 GPs
    5,000 care workers
    3,000 midwives

    More tractor stats comrades.

    Nurses paid for by mansion tax, what about the others?
    8,000 GPs. When? It takes years and years to train a doctor. This is a promise that cannot be met by 2020 election.
    Has Ed promised more places at Medical Schools?

    He left out the bit about 1,000 free owls.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,123
    Scott_P said:

    @thetimes: David Miliband hints at a political comeback after saying he misses Britain http://t.co/vqww1Zb4OH (PA) http://t.co/Hde0fNsJxe

    He thinks Ed is going to lose...

    @MShapland: The Idea David Miliband could come back will make some Labour rank and file WANT to lose 2015....

    Again a hint. We had this 'King over the water' story a few weeks before Xmas.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Alistair said:

    a Protestant reformed national church

    That's a rather broad attempt at unifying the Church of England and Church of Scotland there.
    I'm pointing out that both had Protestant reformations, and at similar times. That suggests similarities in both nations religious and cultural orbit than some perhaps would care to admit.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Ed has been busy today.

    Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 10m10 minutes ago
    Labour will make sure the NHS in England has the time to care. With Labour:
    20,000 nurses
    8,000 GPs
    5,000 care workers
    3,000 midwives

    More tractor stats comrades.

    Nurses paid for by mansion tax, what about the others?
    The banker bonus tax which is almost infinitely plentiful.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited January 2015

    With the 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (http://electionforecast.co.uk/) showing the SNP winning a credible 33 seats at the GE, perhaps we should give this model more credence than that of Stephen Fisher which inexplicably barely has them reaching double figures.

    It's not inexplicable. It's very explicable. It's a known quantity given how the Fisher model is constructed - but, yes, we are in changed circumstances now, so one has to manually adjust the output to account for the SNP and UKIP.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Again a hint. We had this 'King over the water' story a few weeks before Xmas.

    Well Ed's already been written out of the Scottish campaign. Many will write him out of their English campaign too
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    dr_spyn said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Ed has been busy today.

    Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 10m10 minutes ago
    Labour will make sure the NHS in England has the time to care. With Labour:
    20,000 nurses
    8,000 GPs
    5,000 care workers
    3,000 midwives

    More tractor stats comrades.

    Nurses paid for by mansion tax, what about the others?
    8,000 GPs. When? It takes years and years to train a doctor. This is a promise that cannot be met by 2020 election.
    Has Ed promised more places at Medical Schools?

    He left out the bit about 1,000 free owls.
    Here are six to get the ball rolling:

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/20/article-2662719-1EEE326200000578-499_634x359.jpg
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,123
    dr_spyn said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Ed has been busy today.

    Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 10m10 minutes ago
    Labour will make sure the NHS in England has the time to care. With Labour:
    20,000 nurses
    8,000 GPs
    5,000 care workers
    3,000 midwives

    More tractor stats comrades.

    Nurses paid for by mansion tax, what about the others?
    8,000 GPs. When? It takes years and years to train a doctor. This is a promise that cannot be met by 2020 election.
    Has Ed promised more places at Medical Schools?

    He left out the bit about 1,000 free owls.
    Isn't this already DH policy? I mean the GP expansion and not the owls bit.

    Have a look at: http://hee.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/321/2014/07/GP-Taskforce-report.pdf

    "Despite the longstanding Department of Health policy to increase GP training numbers in
    England to 3,250 per annum, GP recruitment has remained stubbornly below this target, at
    around 2,700 per annum, for the last four years. This cumulative recruitment shortfall is
    being compounded by increasing numbers of trained GPs leaving the workforce, most
    significantly GPs approaching retirement, but perhaps more worryingly women in their 30s.
    GP recruitment and retention is a much bigger problem in some parts of the country and
    often in those areas which have the worst health outcomes."
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Business leaders and bankers are less trusted than trade union leaders are.

    https://twitter.com/TheStaggers/status/552175588375801857

    #leftyconspiracy
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: Correction! (had them the wrong way round)
    Rochester & Strood latest odds:
    8/15 @KellyTolhurst (Con)
    6/4 @MarkReckless (UKIP)

    Kippers can fill their boots...

    No takers for the 8/11 I offered about the conservatives here
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    8,000 GPs. When? It takes years and years to train a doctor. This is a promise that cannot be met by 2020 election.

    Hire immigrants.

    Oh, wait...
    Why not hire immigrants?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    8,000 GPs. When? It takes years and years to train a doctor. This is a promise that cannot be met by 2020 election.

    Hire immigrants.

    Oh, wait...
    Why not hire immigrants?
    Why isn't there enough British talent in the NHS. That's the fundamental question.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @thetimes: David Miliband hints at a political comeback after saying he misses Britain http://t.co/vqww1Zb4OH (PA) http://t.co/Hde0fNsJxe

    He thinks Ed is going to lose...

    @MShapland: The Idea David Miliband could come back will make some Labour rank and file WANT to lose 2015....

    Goodness, everytime I'm exasperated by Ed, I get a reminder of how it could've been even worse. David really has nothing to offer but his own vanity.
    I think he would have had better election winning policies, for Labour. But he clearly lacks the killer instinct and I'd therefore have a question around his robustness as a leader.

    Also, whilst more articulate than Ed, he also had a unfortunate tendency to come across in a lecturing and slightly pompous manner. I think that might have grated on some people.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,123
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    8,000 GPs. When? It takes years and years to train a doctor. This is a promise that cannot be met by 2020 election.

    Hire immigrants.

    Oh, wait...
    Why not hire immigrants?
    NHS already does. In spades. Senior consultant on Today programme this morning was talking about his Trust being about to fly out to Spain on a big nurse recruitment drive.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Osborne's economy hits the brakes in election year and everyone wants to talk about websites ?

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/06/uk-services-sector-growth-slows-december

    Already discussed and put into context this morning.
    LOL yes I read both the posts, keep focused on the big picture TSE.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    edited January 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Business leaders and bankers are less trusted than trade union leaders are.

    twitter.com/TheStaggers/status/552175588375801857

    #leftyconspiracy

    Would be interesting to see what the margin of error is, they are probably within it! The police don't seem to be faring too well, and disappointed not to see an entry for PB Tories.
  • Osborne's economy hits the brakes in election year and everyone wants to talk about websites ?

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/06/uk-services-sector-growth-slows-december

    Already discussed and put into context this morning.
    LOL yes I read both the posts, keep focused on the big picture TSE.
    Honestly, the big picture isn't always what people are interested in.

    Take the 2012 budget, we had politicians obsessing about pasties, and being photographed eating them.

    PS - I'm not sure how +50 PMI can be described as hitting the brakes.

    If it had fallen below 50 then that might accurately be described as hitting the brakes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    edited January 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Business leaders and bankers are less trusted than trade union leaders are.

    Clearly there are potential opportunities for independent doctors and scientists to make an impact on politics (like Sarah Wollaston) if they can elbow the PPE folk out of the way.

    A clever political party would actively recruit more of them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    dr_spyn said:

    Ed has been busy today.

    Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 10m10 minutes ago
    Labour will make sure the NHS in England has the time to care. With Labour:
    20,000 nurses
    8,000 GPs
    5,000 care workers
    3,000 midwives

    More tractor stats comrades.

    Of course, Labour left the NHS woefully under-resourced for the level of population increase it silently engineered. Same with school places. And housing.

    They really were a most scummy Government. And an even scummier Opposition, denying any of it is anything to do with them.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @thetimes: David Miliband hints at a political comeback after saying he misses Britain http://t.co/vqww1Zb4OH (PA) http://t.co/Hde0fNsJxe

    He thinks Ed is going to lose...

    @MShapland: The Idea David Miliband could come back will make some Labour rank and file WANT to lose 2015....

    Goodness, everytime I'm exasperated by Ed, I get a reminder of how it could've been even worse. David really has nothing to offer but his own vanity.
    I think he would have had better election winning policies, for Labour. But he clearly lacks the killer instinct and I'd therefore have a question around his robustness as a leader.

    Also, whilst more articulate than Ed, he also had a unfortunate tendency to come across in a lecturing and slightly pompous manner. I think that might have grated on some people.
    To be honest, I question whether he would've even been more articulate. I went to a leadership hustings back in 2010, and taking policies out of the equation (they weren't really saying much different on policies anyway, apart from Iraq), Ed really did seem to me the more charismatic of the two, incredible though that sounds now.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    Excellent Scottish Labour poster as seen on the last thread. If anyone needs evidence that SLAB have now got their act together look at their advertising. Id be surprised if they don't do better than the 20 seats they're expecting


    https://twitter.com/jimmurphymp/status/551834747610341376/photo/1
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Ukip's website is currently down amid claims that a small record label from Oxford has bought up its current domain.

    The issues were first noticed this morning, when the ukip.org address showed a page that often appears when ownership of a domain expires - in this instance offering links to walk in showers and subscriptions to the Telegraph newspaper.

    Soon after, a mischievous record label claimed to have purchased the the address for a year - tweeting what the company claimed was a recent for their order.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-01-06/ukip-website-down-as-record-label-claims-to-have-bought-domain/

    Another hoax. Dear dear

    This is getting to be a habit!

    Mind you I was first on here with the news that The Jam had reformed and supporting the libertines.. Easily done
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    If Miliband goes on the NHS, then as well as Cameron reiterating Labour promised to cut it in 2010, it's an invitation to refer to Scottish Labour's policy of taxing England to fund Scottish nurses and to ask whether Miliband agrees.

    Of course, that's so obvious Miliband must have a rebuttal. It'd probably be that Scotland deserves it's fair share of the mansion tax, but if he agrees then the Conservatives could put up the Scottish Labour quote, and then one of Miliband agreeing.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Roger, problem with that line is that Cameron's more popular in Scotland than Miliband.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566

    Question is: to what degree will Labour recover in England? I can see it doing ok in London. I'm not sure about everywhere else.

    I'm willing to bet (and have) that they will fall short of expectations in the key Middle England marginals.

    Seems to be going well in my patch and a couple of others that I know of - are you going by gut feeling? The thing about the marginals is that they vary a lot - some have big chunks of Labour and Tory territory glaring at each other and there the key issue may be UKIP impact, , but more usually they're quite mixed suburbs and small towns, often with lots of former LibDems (17% in my patch - if we get a third of those, as I'd suggest is realistic, we'll need to do quite badly in other ways to lose).

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    dr_spyn said:

    Ed has been busy today.

    Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 10m10 minutes ago
    Labour will make sure the NHS in England has the time to care. With Labour:
    20,000 nurses
    8,000 GPs
    5,000 care workers
    3,000 midwives

    More tractor stats comrades.

    Of course, Labour left the NHS woefully under-resourced for the level of population increase it silently engineered. Same with school places. And housing.

    They really were a most scummy Government. And an even scummier Opposition, denying any of it is anything to do with them.
    Perhaps he will start a cloning operation. It really is quite pathetic stuff to pretend that by writing a tweet something can be done.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    If Miliband goes on the NHS, then as well as Cameron reiterating Labour promised to cut it in 2010, it's an invitation to refer to Scottish Labour's policy of taxing England to fund Scottish nurses and to ask whether Miliband agrees.

    Of course, that's so obvious Miliband must have a rebuttal. It'd probably be that Scotland deserves it's fair share of the mansion tax, but if he agrees then the Conservatives could put up the Scottish Labour quote, and then one of Miliband agreeing.

    https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/552460160925708288
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Not sure how David Miliband comes back to save the day if his kid brother has trashed brand Milband....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Eagles, I hope Mr. Palmer can immediately and unambiguously refute that suggested policy commitment, which strikes at the very heart of all that is good and true and civilised in this world.
  • Mr. Eagles, I hope Mr. Palmer can immediately and unambiguously refute that suggested policy commitment, which strikes at the very heart of all that is good and true and civilised in this world.

    Also get them to rule out a tax on poor knowledge of history, or you'd be hit by a double whammy.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    David Miliband's return to UK politics would be welcomed by consistent questioning as to his involvement in torture.Once these are answered he would make an excellent candidate to take on the Tories for London Mayor.He has that international experience that someone like Tessa Jowell lacks.It would make for interesting relations for one Miliband to be PM and the other Lord Mayor of London.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Eagles, au contraire, I'd be entitled to a rebate.

    I fear that you, on the other hand, would be reduced to the vile state of penury.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Jo_Coburn: Shadow health minister @leicesterliz tells #bbcdp it's totally fair that money from Labour's mansion tax be used to fund nurses in Scotland
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited January 2015
    What happens when Tories run the NHS.

    https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/552480466805489665
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    Any reason why it wouldn't be fair?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    Any reason why it wouldn't be fair?

    Ask Diane
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Jeremy_Hunt: Wrong @Ed_Miliband. More patients than ever being seen in <4 hours. Strong NHS needs strong economy so Labour's deficit denial risk to NHS.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    I was asking you.
    However, I did so without much hope.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    There seems to be some consternation today that labour is planning to rob wealthy areas of money to nurture their client welfare dormitories.

    I don;t know why. Its being going on for decades.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    Question is: to what degree will Labour recover in England? I can see it doing ok in London. I'm not sure about everywhere else.

    I'm willing to bet (and have) that they will fall short of expectations in the key Middle England marginals.

    Seems to be going well in my patch and a couple of others that I know of - are you going by gut feeling? The thing about the marginals is that they vary a lot - some have big chunks of Labour and Tory territory glaring at each other and there the key issue may be UKIP impact, , but more usually they're quite mixed suburbs and small towns, often with lots of former LibDems (17% in my patch - if we get a third of those, as I'd suggest is realistic, we'll need to do quite badly in other ways to lose).

    I think you're an exception, Nick. You've put in a consistently high level of ground effort week-in-week out across the whole parliament, in a seat in which you only narrowly lost last time, against a not uncontroversial Tory incumbent. You're also in the top 10 Labour target seats, and I'd expect almost all of those to fall to you.

    Where I'm less clear is Labour targets 20-40, where I expect an underperformance. So you will win seats off the Tories, but I think they'll be <30 seats in total, and possibly fewer.


  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited January 2015
    BenM said:

    What happens when Tories run the NHS.

    That's what happens when the previous government boosts the population, and gives doctors generous contracts that reduce the number of them working out of hours.

    It would be interesting to see how many patients are waiting with ailments that a GP might have dealt with, were there any available.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2015
    @BenM - I suppose Labour are making worst of a good job in the circumstances, given that this winter's crop of NHS scare stories has been unusually thin.

    If only you'd had a major 'flu epidemic, eh? How much happier you'd be. Oh well, I suppose you have to make do with what you can find by selective use of statistics.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    taffys said:

    There seems to be some consternation today that labour is planning to rob wealthy areas of money to nurture their client welfare dormitories.

    I don;t know why. Its being going on for decades.

    They have never had to bid against other parties for the client welfare dormitory votes before
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    Mr. Eagles, I hope Mr. Palmer can immediately and unambiguously refute that suggested policy commitment, which strikes at the very heart of all that is good and true and civilised in this world.

    Hear hear.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Day 2, how's it going?

    @carrieapples: Grant Shapps: “Jim Murphy’s comments show once again that Ed Miliband simply does not command the respect of his party."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    BenM said:
    I may be misremembering but didn't Labour fail to pledge to not cut the NHS during this parliament, whilst the Tories pledged to maintain the budget in real terms?

    I'm not a fan of the NHS concept as a state funded healthcare provider anyway, but all other things being equal, it's hard to see how healthcare performance would have been better under Labour given that policy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I'm not a fan of the NHS concept as a state funded healthcare provider anyway, but all other things being equal, it's hard to see how healthcare performance would have been better under Labour given that policy.

    It's easy to see how it would have been worse. Look at Wales.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I shall be putting up a post extending my data-based guesses either late on this evening or first thing tomorrow. My rough and ready rules produce results that look both weird and strangely plausible.

    To be clear, I place very little store in them, but they do help illustrate one possible way that the referendum might have created new facts on the ground.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    It would be interesting to see how many patients are waiting with ailments that a GP might have dealt with, were there any available.

    At the hospital in Exeter, the out-of-hours GP service is co-located with the A&E department so that the A&E triage nurses can send people to the out-of-hours service if they don't need to be in A&E.

    That's the entire purpose of triage, so if the situation you suggest is occurring then I would suggest that it is a defect in the local organisation of NHS services that is at fault.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    At the hospital in Exeter, the out-of-hours GP service is co-located with the A&E department so that the A&E triage nurses can send people to the out-of-hours service if they don't need to be in A&E.

    Same thing in Edinburgh
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    If Miliband goes on the NHS, then as well as Cameron reiterating Labour promised to cut it in 2010, it's an invitation to refer to Scottish Labour's policy of taxing England to fund Scottish nurses and to ask whether Miliband agrees.

    Of course, that's so obvious Miliband must have a rebuttal. It'd probably be that Scotland deserves it's fair share of the mansion tax, but if he agrees then the Conservatives could put up the Scottish Labour quote, and then one of Miliband agreeing.

    https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/552460160925708288
    There's a whole twitter thing where people are adding 1000 onto number in popular film, tv and music products.

    e.g. Can't wait for Labour's version of the jury room classic, 1012 Angry Men, etc ad infinitum
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited January 2015

    It would be interesting to see how many patients are waiting with ailments that a GP might have dealt with, were there any available.

    At the hospital in Exeter, the out-of-hours GP service is co-located with the A&E department so that the A&E triage nurses can send people to the out-of-hours service if they don't need to be in A&E.

    That's the entire purpose of triage, so if the situation you suggest is occurring then I would suggest that it is a defect in the local organisation of NHS services that is at fault.
    Would a wait for an out-of-hours doctor in Exeter be included in their A&E stats?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Scott_P said:

    @Jeremy_Hunt: Wrong @Ed_Miliband. More patients than ever being seen in <4 hours. Strong NHS needs strong economy so Labour's deficit denial risk to NHS.</p>

    Wait. So more people are being seen in less than four hours, and more people are not being seen within four hours?

    That almost sounds like a rapidly growing population is putting huge strain on the health service. What could be driving such a thing?!?
This discussion has been closed.