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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the super-marginals main party GOTV operations will giv
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the super-marginals main party GOTV operations will give them a big advantage
Those who have been actively involved in elections will recognise what is going on in the picture above. As voters arrive at the polling station they are asked by the two ladies with the rosettes (tellers) for their polling number which is printed on their polling cards.
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That said, with around 85 seats with a majority of under 2000, even a small vote share by either UKIP or the Greens in marginal constituencies, if they pull vote from the main parties, could decide which party wins the general election.
For all their problems behind the scenes UKIP have very quickly mastered how to organise themselves in the best way to fight seats. If they focus all their efforts and resources on their realistic winnable targets they could stretch even the biggest parties.
Phone banks are only a matter of cash. The problem will be using their intel in target areas effectively when they lack equal numbers of boots on the ground. They will need a focused targeted campaign and sound judgement of where to prioritise.
Presumably you can provide a link?
Camerons problem might be that a lot of his activists probably aren't from the liberal end of the spectrum, they are more likely to be from the pissed off and dispossessed end of the party, and hence might be more prone to not being bothered, or giving Farage's team a call to see if they need any more shoe leather deployed.
Ed's problem may be similar in as much as Labour activists tend to be from the left of the party, and they are going to be cheesed off about his suggestions of following the Tories cuts, and might be looking around for a more left wing team to campaign for, to the benefit of the Greens. Also lets be honest, Ed doesn't have the sort of personality to inspire the troops.
The LDs on the other hand have their backs to the wall and I can see the troops getting very fired up and trying to salvage something from a unpromising situation, so I expect lots of literature with dodgy bar charts through the door over the next few months ;-)
http://immigration.conservatives.com/
They must think people are idiots.
(Before the Flightpath tendency starting banging on about how they are doing something, the benefit changes are almost certain to be ruled to require treaty changes, the Commision has already applied to the ECJ for that ruling, Poland has already said it will veto any such change as being against the interest of its citizens - so it won't happen)
The original contention from Speedy was that we ran a massive trade deficit in car production, principally due to our joining the EU.
Now, I could be wrong here, but I think the main reason we run a massive deficit in car production is that - prior to Mrs Thatcher attracting inward investment in the 1980s - we had a truly awful car industry that made awful cars that couldn't compete on the world market. British Leyland was shit, and that had nothing to do with the EU - it was the result of:
1. Crap industrial policy that thought that merging firms to preserve jobs was a better idea than allowing firms to die. We thus ensured that management who failed still had their hands on the tiller.
2. Terrible union relations. Strikes, demarcation, high cost structures and awful quality control. The reputation for quality of the British car industry in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s was remarkable.
I blame British industrial policy of the 1960s and 1970s for so much of what went wrong in the UK. The idea that you could merge a bunch of non-entities and just create a great business (ICL was much worse than its constituent parts, as was Rover/British Leyland) was ludicrous, and the "us and them" attitude of British unions and management was appalling. Add to that the fact that, for larger companies (Rolls Royce, British Steel, etc.), you could fuck up and get bailed out, meant there was extraordinary moral hazard.
It really is no coincidence that it was: (a) the sorting out of the trade unions, (b) the end of bail outs, and (c) a willingness to let foreign businesses in to the UK led to (c) better management of British businesses. This is not about the EU - it's about why our economy turned around in the 1980s and has yet to turn back around.
One thing I'm not totally following: the bit about 'certainty to vote.' Could we not say that those expressing a view, but who have little or no previous voting history, are also less likely to be on the GOTV systems and therefore are less likely to vote in reality?
Living in an ultra safe seat, I never get to see any of it.
I know that before Christmas I had received 2 leaflets from Lord Thurso my current MP and a calendar from Rob Gibson my current MSP, neither of whom I vote for. As a Tory, my vote in this seat is irrelevant but I wouldn't dream of voting for another party to keep a 3rd party from winning.
Members of the PB Lizard Round Table will meet shortly for a passable luncheon to discuss sanctions against such miscreants. Among suggestions are :
Permanent transfer to ConHome Ukip threads, deportation to Clacton Ukip AV Summer Camp and lifetime membership of the malcolmg charm school.
France forced to drop 75% supertax after meagre returns
Hollande’s measure was meant to force wealthiest to help dig country out of economic crisis, but was accused of being anti-business
French top rate of tax is now 45%.... you listening Ed ?
However the fact that they were the recipient of protest votes against the Government would mean that they didn't need to do much in the way of GOTV.
No doubt the Left will cheer every banker and entrepreneur and hedge fund manager that leaves our shores. Until it finally seeps into their skulls that these people, irksome as they may be, pay for the NHS.....
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/01/dear-tony-blair-electorate-shifted-left-ed-miliband Oh dear.
That does not apply to most SLAB seats (evidence from past by elections) and time is running out to fix it. SNP will presumably have more data from the indyref and has almost 10 times the number of volunteer workers than SLAB.
Yes: it's called "money printing".
Probably the single most important equation in economics is MV = PT, which states that (simplifying somewhat) that the price level is a function of the amount of money in circulation and its velocity (i.e., the amount of times it changes hands a year).
In an environment where confidence is low, people spend less (fewer transactions) and therefore the velocity of money declines. If the velocity of money declines absent any increase in the amount of money in circulation, then the price level should fall - which would increase the burden on borrowers, and probably cause a further decline in the velocity of money, etc.
Quantitative Easing attempted to keep the price level flat to slightly rising by allowing the amount of money in circulation to rise, to offset this decline in the velocity of money.
However, if the velocity of money is stable, then QE will have the effect of raising the price level and leading to inflation. (See Germany in the 1920s or various South American countries more recently).
If the government continues to pump money into economies (that it never has to pay back), then there will be inflation. (What's worse the existence of inflation will increase the velocity of money, as no-one wishes to keep hold of something who's value is falling... therefore leading to a viscous feedback look.)
If UKIP and Greens get squeezed in some marginals then it will make their vote more lumpy and therefore more effective.
Also, membership numbers of the main two parties have dropped so much (e.g. tories down from nearly 200,000 to just above 100,000 many of who will be ancient) that they will not have the numbers of people to do what Mike is suggesting, especially as they will have to redeploy activists into previously safe seats.
Wishful thinking I think.
Not long to go now until the fiercely competitive and highly unpredictable contest gets under way. Less than a month, in fact, to the start of F1 testing for the 2015 season.
But the only people they've got left are the North London Guardianistas?
"But in hindsight the wrong people were voting Labour."
I can see this phrase reappearing during the election campaign.
If you are prosperous and concerned about inequality, then F**k off back to the Tories. Labour don't want your vote."
A very heavy fine for the person who did it couldn't be ruled out either.
What worries me somewhat is not that the Guardian's columnists are progressively more terrible - they have Her Pollyness, of course, but also Will Hutton, George Monbiot and periodically Owen Jones tacked on to this lot - but that they are presumably still being paid for spouting ahistorical drivel. It's almost as though they can't quite believe how badly the twentieth century's experiments in socialism and extreme social democracy have failed and that if they keep shouting the same outmoded slogans for long enough, people will listen. Which is ironic given that Blair and to a lesser extent Gerhard Schroder proved how politically powerful moderate social democracy can prove in practice.
A pity they both contained spelling mistakes...
Edited extra bit: Mr. Root, but will they return to France, or will the flood of high-earning Frenchies to London decide they'd rather live there permanently?
* SNP 93,000 thousand members. Approximately 1,576 members per Scottish Constituency
* Labour in Scotland Approx 10,000 members (if the New Statesman is to be believed). Approximately 169 per Scottish Constituency.
Who is going to have the boots on the ground to get the vote out? Labour are well and truly Stuffed in Scotland.
That in itself would make a bit of a nonsense of the old UNS.
Former
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-30654213
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30653845
Turnout nationally 1997-2010: 71/59/61/65
A consistent 7-point difference, from the 40% or so who don't vote anyway. Some of that is because it's a prosperous constituency with limited mobility, both factors that help turnout. But I'd guess that half is due to activist pestering, which is enough to be significant in a tight race.
To reply to others - just nicking polling data on a flash drive isn't enough - you need to buy similar software (the parties are not selling theirs) and enter it all by hand, a big job. UKIP's by-election strategy where I've seen it has been human wave assaults - flood the constituency with volunteers, rent a prominent high street shop, use loudspeaker vans, generally stir up enthusiasm. But I've seen no sign of collecting past or future voting data, or even of systematic local organisation - e.g. UKIP Broxtowe's website doesn't mention their candidate in any way though he was selected months ago. The human wave approach is going to be difficult in a General Election. They will need to target ruthlessly.
In reply to Charles and EiT: just nicking data isn't enough: you need election software. Labour's isn't for sale and I doubt if the other parties' software is either. Is there a product on the open market?
In reply to Paul Mid-Beds - Labour activist levels are fairly healthy, though not at the 1997 popular uprising level. Conservative and LibDem activist levels are not great, and essentially hinge on the old hands doing more - in our recent by-election, a disabled Tory councillor aged over 80 did a heroic 4-hour number-taking stint in the cold dark morning from 7am. It's awesome, but there are limits to what can be managed. IMO the Tory Achilles heel is that they've been and still are short of people to collect voting intention from people not on the phone (the paid phone banks have been working smoothly). It's now too late to do a lot about that.
Quincel - replied to you re my games on the last thread. Thanks for the interest!
I have just watched an episode of Simon Schama’s History of Britain in which he describes how the Labour Party was formed because “In Britain the working class had finally had enough of hand-me-downs from the conscience stricken middle class liberals”.
As to running again, he himself has said he wont if unemployment doesnt fall. Paddy Power have him at longer odds than his PM to win the next election (both a long way behind Sarkozy who seems too short for me given that he's no shoo-in for his party's nomination).
I've not been following the new that closely over the New Year but is it really true that Katie "rent-a-gob Hopkins is being investigated by Plod for calling someone a "sweaty Glaswegian" and a "Jock" on twitter?
Can I make a formal complaint to the police about the police wasting police time?
Incidentally, I briefly watched a programme on musicals last night and a group called Four Poofs and a Piano appeared. I assume they have been arrested?
The French have a bit of a an existential dilemma, they like their 35 working week, their legendary labour inflexibility, their generous benefits and so forth, however they were recently found to be 26% less productive than Germany, resulting in lots of jobs of the sort that belong to traditional socialist supporters, notably car workers being lost in droves, and the closure of at least one large automotive plant as being unprofitable. Hollande attempted to let them have their cake and eat it, and is historically unpopular now at 17%. Where do they go next, its looking rather like Ms Le Pen and protectionism.
I am due to retire v soon, if Ed sticks up these taxes, I shall do what so many Frenchmen did.. re-domicile... its so easy these days thanks to Easyjet.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/shopping-and-consumer-news/11320629/Tepid-coffee-anyone-Europe-rules-percolators-must-shut-off-after-five-minutes.html
While Ms Le Pen will (probably) top the presidential polls in the first round, she'll only be on 25% or so, and up against almost any challenger (Sarkozy, Juppe, Fillon), she loses 60:40. Although that may - of course - change between now and 2017.
Interestingly, Hollande-Juppe leads to the latter winning 66:34, which gives you some idea of how staggeringly unpopular Hollande is.
I personally think this is an excuse, as I've used that method for eight years and never had a problem. However, if the EU Commission is serious about cutting emissions, wouldn't it be better to start by making or at least nudging the likes of BT to upgrade their systems to make such things unnecessary?
Incidentally, as a relatively new party member, I was a fired-up activist in 97, helping us to win a key marginal (Loughborough). These days, my activity comes via a keyboard and posts on PB. Perhaps this year I might re-engage and do my bit in Stockton South.
Might be OK for big businesses and for large families. Not so much fun for my mate Owain, a coffeeholic living alone who puts a pot through at the start of the day and then drinks it as and when he wants it, usually finishing up the lot by about 5 in the evening.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/02/nigel-farage-ukip-target-hedge-fund-city-finances-report
and Roger-asbestos is "quite safe"-Helmer in charge of the environment too.
Oddly, the spelling of that word came up during a very exciting orientation day[ish] ahead of my temporary stint as a shelf-stacker.
Bit of an ill-tempered post, Mr. G.
For politicians it also means doing what you say you are going to do.The LibDems are completely stuffed in any seats with a large student population.
Registration campaigns are vital too.The Scottish people managed 85%.GE 2015 should aim to beat that.
Hard to imagine connection with my word and shelf stacking but presume it is HSE in case you are not human and aware that you have to wash after using facilities.
Edit: I think it's the vulnerability and the blamelessness of the victims that is causing outrage.
I'm following the discussion on PB of such things with interest. I can't help thinking that saying the same things on a Glasgow street, or in a newspaper, would cause just as much upset and lead to an arrest for attempted breach of the peace. So why should the internet be immune?
Perhaps some people have got so used to insulting the Scots during indyref that the habit is proving hard to shake off ...
Mr. Carnyx, we should also consider whether we want to criminalise being insulting, or obnoxious. I would strongly argue against such a thing.
I’ve not yet placed any bets at a national level, as there still seems to be too many uncertainties. I’m pretty confident that no party will have a majority – but that’s as far as it goes.
I’ve focused my betting on William Hill’s SLAB seats market. I’ve build a good position in the 0-20 seats area, I’ll make good profits if SLAB wins 0-5, 6-10, 11-15 and will break even at 16-20 seats. I built most of my 0-5 position at 125/1 (now down to 33/1) and it would pay out £16,000. Realistically though 11-15 seats at 7/1, is probably the best value bet.
My sense is that the SNP surge still has some way to go and would anticipate SNP levelling out at around 50%. I think SLAB will struggle to hold onto the 20% support level, let alone their current 25%. I don’t think there is anything SLAB can do to turn things around in Scotland by GE2015, so they should just focus on a proper game plan for Holyrood 2016.
On the other hand, if she were locked up for... ooohhhh... about 50 years, I think most people would cheer.
And exactly the same should apply whether the target of the insults is a Scot, an Englishman or a member of the Westboro Baptist Church.
1. Get output in excel friendly format.
2. Load into Excel
3. Manipulate as you wish.
Simples
On the EU, it should not merely be left, but dismantled. They won't, though, and it'll crash and burn instead, sooner or later.
His response is below (I paraphrase)
When did the Scots become such mewling quims?
A few years ago a terrorist attacked Glasgow Airport and what did a Scotsman do?
Went up and kicked the terrorist in the balls.
The best response, is humour.
Scotland has Ebola, England has Katie Hopkins. 1 nil to Scotland.
But this is Katie Hopkins we're talking about here. Just think: we could criminalise her being her. How good would that be?
I've been impressed by the Tory operations.
For those who have been involved in Tory campaigns in the past, they've become very professional, when some of the membership, canvassing lists etc systems were very outdated.
In the past you got the feeling the Tories couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory.
Here in Sheffield Hallam the Lib Dems are running a good ground game here, my mother is indentified as a 2010 Lib Dem voter, she's been receiving regular correspondence telling her why she should vote Lib Dem in May that has been tailored specifically for her based on the Lib Dems coming out and speaking to her.
That said I understand Tom Watson will be in my neighbourhood today with Labour's PPC so I'm expecting a very long campaign.