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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP are betting favourites to win in just five seats at GE

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    kle4/ScottP Sir George Mathewson, Sir Sean Connery, all Yes backers.

    kle4 18-24 year olds were actually narrowly in favour of the union, there is no certainty of its demise
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    CNN US 2016 general election

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [59%] (58%)
    •Jeb Bush (R) 41% [36%] (36%)

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [56%] (52%)
    •Paul Ryan (R) 41% [39%] (43% )

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [56%] (47%)
    •Chris Christie (R) 39% [37%] (47%)

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 58% [58%] (54%)
    •Rand Paul (R) 38% [38%] (40%)

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
    •Ben Carson (R) 35%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 59% [57%] (55%)
    •Mike Huckabee (R) 38% [38%] (39%)

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
    •Ted Cruz (R) 35%

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/12/24/poll2.pdf
  • ShneurOdzeShneurOdze Posts: 10
    MikeSmithson said:

    taffys said:

    ''I read a lot on here about the prospects for the LD vote, the UKIP vote, the Green vote, the SNP vote and even the Labour vote but not a lot about the Conservative vote.''

    Since the beginning of 2014, the conservatives poll score is a reasonable guide to who will turn out to put a cross in the blue box in a real election.

    That is not true of the labour vote. The poll score always overstates the numbers who turn out for ed or his representative when push comes to shove.

    Nick Palmer's chances look good on paper, but next May I reckon he'll be standing on that husting thinking to himself, 'where are all those f8ckers who said they'd vote for me...??

    The idea that the Tories always get understated is not correct. ICM had them on 26% fr the Euros - they came out with 23.93%

    With respect 9/10 underestimated the toies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    One for @TheScreamingEagles
    Research suggests Hogmanay originated in Yorkshire
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    edited December 2014
    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    But I'm expecting to see YouGov and Populus on Monday, and Lord Ashcroft the following Monday.

    And then we'll be back to normal.

    I expect we're going to see more polling than we can handle between now and May.

    I've just responded to an Opinium survey with deadline Jan 2 "or as soon as we fulfil our qoutas" or words to that effect.

    Yes, we'll probably be seeing about 10 polls a week. Shall we all agree that it takes TWO (or even THREE) poll movements in the same direction before any of us get excited, and we all laugh derisively at anyone who breaks the rule?

    Since the first Sunil on Sunday ELBOW in mid-August there has been an average of 10 polls a week (up to 22nd December).

    189 polls in 19 weeks.
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