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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The SNP’s been issuing lots of data from its latest Panelbase poll but no GE15 voting intentions. Why?
Above is a table with all the Scottish GE15 voting intention polls that have been published since June and I was hoping this morning that a final survey could be added to the list.
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The history of the British in India was one of tax rates up to 90% on peasant farmers, a compulsory monopsony that bought their products below market rates, and extracting the wealth of the continent to Britain rather than building up grain stores for famines. The result was economic misery and huge numbers of deaths when the crops failed. The British administrators openly boasted about how they had turned manufacturing provinces into raw commodity exporters. Bengal was transformed from one of the richest countries in the world into the impoverished failed state it is today.
Of course, there were places where the British benefitted the locals, like Singapore and Hong Kong, but the vast, vast majority of British subjects were in India, and they got royally screwed by British rule. That's "why not the Brits".
A proud, confident nation should be able to admit to its historical mistakes, rather than whitewash them away. When we stayed true to the British values of constitutional rule, free and fair commerce, and parliamentary democracy, we have been a huge plus to the world. But sadly in much of our Empire we instead resorted to authoritarianism and rigged economic exploitation.
Until the drip stops, it's a little dangerous drawing conclusions. If it stops without the polling figure, the conclusion suggested looks right.
Successful former British colonies seem to be one of two types:
1. Places rich in natural resources where Brits went to settle permanently, and with small indigenous populations. (The US, Canada and Australia)
2. Small islands / city states able to piggyback of the success of the wider region. (Singapore, Hong Kong)
Places where Brits went to exploit the local resources, and then return home (much of India and Southern Africa); or where there were large indigenous populations that refused to succumb to guns, germs and steel, have not - to date - been enormous successes.
Happy New Year to all at pb.
However,a month later there was another Panelbase/Wings over Scotland which reported 45% / 28%.
Since Yougov at the end of October, the SNP / Labour split has been more or less consistent. Let's see a few more polls.
This SNP "landslide" is based on a mammoth 20% swing. But they did achieve precisely that in 2011 Holyrood. The current polls are not much different to Holyrood 2011.
I'll leave it up to you, dear readers, to determine whether that would be a good thing or not
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_29/12/2014_545784 Writing off a large chunk of almost 400 billion dollars isn't going to do the rest of the EU much good.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/11316656/David-Camerons-policy-chief-lobbied-for-poll-tax-despite-warnings.html
Worrying to hear of ebola in the UK, but it does seem to have been dealt with promptly.
Mr. Indigo, I wonder what the German view is. If Greece gets let off a huge quantity of debt, other nations may try the same approach.
QTWTAIM*
*(maybe)
It indicates that there has been rather more good news on the Greek economy this year than is sometimes appreciated.
But the article Indigo quotes is also right. Any pretence that Greece is going to pay back its current debt or even service it on current terms is just exactly that. The debt forgiveness package the last time did not go nearly far enough to create a viable base.
The elites of the EU have basically managed to manufacture a "Heads you win, Tails I Lose" scenario. Either they have to forgive huge amounts of Greek debt, at which point everyone else is going to want equitable treatment, and Germany loses a truck load of money, or, Greece calls a hard default of its outstanding debt, and crashes out of the EU as the ECB withdraws support, contagion causes havoc through the EU and risks Portugal going under as well, and Germany loses a truck load of money as the main backer of the ECB. If you were aiming to screw things up it would be hard to do a better job.
The headline is
Politicians should ignore our opinion polls - MPs are too easily swayed by what the public thinks. They must stand up for their beliefs
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4309202.ece
The problem would seem to to me to be that changing the repayment terms doesn't deal with the real problem which is that Greece's debt has almost doubled in the last five years, despite very strict austerity. I understand this is largely due to their inability to get their population to pay the taxes due, there being a longtime culture of rampant tax avoidance. Its not clear in the medium to long term how you integrate a culture which basically doesn't believe in paying taxes, to a community where people by and large do just that.
OTOH given their track record such a result would not necessarily mean that the SNP lead was fading, just that Panelbase's methodology is consistent.
In their final poll before the referendum they stated that Yes was on 45% No on 50% and 5% was undecided. With a "forced" vote this became Yes 47 No 53. Like almost all of the pollsters their polling favoured Yes slightly but that was more accurate than most. If their latest finding showed a return to something like October rather than the November Wings over Scotland poll that would indeed be interesting. I personally have never believed in the SNP avalanche but I do expect SNP gains, particularly where the Unionist vote is split several ways.
The number of Romanians and Bulgarians not in work has increased 15 fold in just eight years raising fears they are becoming an increasing drain on the state, new figures show.
One in five migrants from the two Eastern European countries of working age are not in employment and the rate is deteriorating as more people arrive."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11316680/Number-of-Romanians-and-Bulgarians-not-in-work-increases-15-fold-in-eight-years.html
Why would we want any people at all to immigrate with no job?
You seem bored....
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/december-2014/statistical-bulletin.html
The article even admits it, in muffled form:
"While the employment rate for Romanians and Bulgarians remains higher than the national average of 72 per cent..."
Many of those without jobs will not be unemployed. They may, for example, be students.
I've never said anything like that, you're just unable to see anything objectively outside of your own little bubble
"Oh poor me, no one understands my life! I feel they are all walking in a different direction out of the train station than me... . No one understands my despair... I'll set up a little group so we can all moan about it"
Reforming against the grain of a deeply-rooted cultural practice takes determination, but it's been done repeatedly in all kinds of different places. Greece has a key ingredient in making this happen, which is really, really shitty alternatives.
Logs back out & thinks better to head off for some ham and Xmas cake left overs for brekkie... the food of kings.
The passenger manifest on the ferry that caught fire seems to have been a piece of elaborate fiction. There were meant to be 475 people on board. Accounting for the ten dead, 427 have been rescued, meaning there are still around 40-50 people missing. However, reports suggest that eighty of the people rescued were not on the manifest. Did the missing people get off at the intermediate stop, did they even exist, or are they in the water?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30629472
Incredible.
(*) And to be fair in this case, Italians...
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/testing-boundaries-4-ukip-vs-all-comers.html
But carry on being a pretentious smart arse that doesn't understand anyone else's life but frets over his own precious problems, it suits you
Set up a self obsessed special interest group at work to discuss?
For instance you used abortion as a metaphor and when I asked you not to, graphically described one in response. Maybe it made you feel clever
I think you'll have to accept that some people have a different mindset to you when it comes to Europe. You believe that your country is the UK, but others believe that their country is Europe.
Thus the poor in Rumania are equivalent to the poor in, say Lincolnshire. These people may be in a minority overall but less so in the higher reaches of society across Europe. That's why the EU is aiming for something close to a Political Union rather than just a common market, and also why the left wing in general are now strongly in favour of the EU.
It's a legitimate and honourable viewpoint as long as they are honest upfront, as many are.
It's an old idea. As John Donne said in the seventeenth century ...
No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thine own
Or of thine friend's were.
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.
Sorry if it's a bit early for philosophy.
"it's beyond me how anyone could think of Europe as their country."
It's a noble idea, but there are at least a couple of problems. They want to use your money to make it a fact, and they don't always admit this.
I have a lot of respect for those who live their ideals. The Salvation Army go out and get their hands dirty. Other "opinion makers" do it by proxy and benefit from it.
" that Bulgarian and Romanian migrants to the UK are harder working than the English..."
To which I'd add Albanians if the guy who did my plastering is typical. The man's a talented human dynamo. And liberal with his splendid home-made raki (or should that be rakia ?).
RT @indiaknight: There's a story in the Times about Leon Brittan telling Mrs Thatcher in 1986 that there was a 'strong case' to ban sex toys
RT @indiaknight: He was worried about 'physical injury,' apparently.
Isn't getting something wrong and refusing to admit it/apologise a bit old politics?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30630703
For the sake of argument lets say we have a 25% level of homophobes among the British population
We think there should be no homophobes in a perfect world
Gay rights groups recognise the need for immigration, but would prefer not to have homophobic immigrants, and devise a simple way of excluding such people.
The government ignore any attempts to filter the homophobes from the nice guy immigrants, and 20% of all immigrants from the countries the LGBT groups were particularly concerned about turn out to be homophobic
"At least it's less than the British %"
or
"Why are we increasing the amount of homophobes in the country?"
One reason might be that for the VI question to be unbiased it'd need to be asked first and they were maybe worried about it biasing the answers to the other questions?
"Only a stub but this story sounds a little odd"
A snapped cable is odd, or do you mean that they were Albanians?
Aren't most 'cables' on ships actually some form of plastic nowadays, rather than steel?
Missed em all !
Anyway Hills leader out/stay in 2015 markets yesterday were nice.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/503543/#Comment_503543
Apology?
Tucked away on the Mails take on the story is the Migration Observatory's comment---
''The Migration Observatory said the not-in-work total of 46,000 will include a large number of students, spouses, dependants and those wealthy enough not to work.
Madeleine Sumption, the observatory’s director, said: ‘Immigration from Romania and Bulgaria has been much more gradual than flows from the EU member states that joined in 2004.
‘In 2004, the UK was one of only three EU member states that did not introduce transitional labour market controls on migrants from new accession states, and saw a sharp increase in migration from these countries.
‘It seems likely that the controls imposed in 2007, together with the weak economy at the end of the decade, may have slowed the pace of Romanian and Bulgarian migrants settling in the UK.’ ''
But as well as the casual abuse we again see that ukip supporters cannot resist the dog whistle.
We need to ask ourselves why we cannot get our own people educated and motivated for work and life. We also need to ask where, assuming we want people to be in higher education doing higher educated things after it, where we get our lower educated workers from doing the lower educated jobs that we require to service our higher educated needs.
Mike makes a post suggesting that the SNP did not publish voting intentions, without checking with either the SNP, or Panelbase and assumes this is a conspiracy to suppress information.
This sets running excitable contributions from posters who hope beyond hope that the information from THREE Scottish polls in the last TWO weeks might somehow be wrong.
Now when Mike has his original suspicions confounded by the SNP, and more importantly Panelbase, normally sensible people like antifrank suggesting this is "odd"
In fact it is perfectly rational behaviour. The SNP do not need information on voting intentions - they have that already. What they have been very successfully feeding the Scottish press over the least three days is rather an explanation for their current success. All of the results from their poll - on popular support for the SNP as "good" for Scotland, on support for the SNP role in a hung parliament etc -are interesting and very favourable indeed to the SNP narrative.
If we want to know how the SNP is doing then all we have to do is look at their soaring prices on Sporting Index - mid point now 28 seats from 21 a couple of weeks ago.
If we want information on why that is happening then it would have been better Mike to publish some of these poll findings rather than float a conspiracy theory which has been so quickly and comprehensively shot down.