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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some good 2015 “leader going” odds here from William Hill

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited December 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some good 2015 “leader going” odds here from William Hill

Some goods odds here William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz pic.twitter.com/g6OEVnGGeK

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Comments

  • Those Clegg and Cameron bets look good.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Am I missing something in Dave ceasing to be leader @ 7-4 being very good odds ?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something in Dave ceasing to be leader @ 7-4 being very good odds ?

    You think they're good, or you don't? As I see it, Cameron is at best a coin toss to be PM in June 2015. And if he isn't, his chances of holding off a leadership challenge are minimal. So he should be roughly evens to go.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited December 2014
    Been allowed £35 on Nick and £30 on Dave at those prices.

    I think Dave should be priced at Evens and Nick ~ 4-7 something like that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something in Dave ceasing to be leader @ 7-4 being very good odds ?

    You think they're good, or you don't? As I see it, Cameron is at best a coin toss to be PM in June 2015. And if he isn't, his chances of holding off a leadership challenge are minimal. So he should be roughly evens to go.
    7-4 is generous, he doesn't survive if there is a Conservative defeat. I'm on the "other side" at any rate at 7-2 (Thats PM market but I can't see him surviving if he isn't PM)

    6-4 on Clegg is a cracking price too.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Good spot Mike.

    The Farage, Cameron & Clegg odds look like value if you like these sort of long-term bets.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something in Dave ceasing to be leader @ 7-4 being very good odds ?

    You think they're good, or you don't? As I see it, Cameron is at best a coin toss to be PM in June 2015. And if he isn't, his chances of holding off a leadership challenge are minimal. So he should be roughly evens to go.
    7-4 is generous, he doesn't survive if there is a Conservative defeat. I'm on the "other side" at any rate at 7-2 (Thats PM market but I can't see him surviving if he isn't PM)

    6-4 on Clegg is a cracking price too.
    Agreed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    How on earth does Hills price up GO still to be chancellor at 4-5 but Dave not to be Tory leader at 7-4, that's what I want to know :D
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    The SNP are continuing to drip feed the results of the recent Panelbase poll. The results of the trust question are particularly interesting. Nick Clegg is so unpopular !!

    Do you trust [NAME] to stand up for Scotland’s interests?
    Nicola Sturgeon – Yes: 59%; No: 27%; DK: 14%
    John Swinney – Yes: 42%; No: 28%; DK: 29%
    Patrick Harvie – Yes: 30%; No: 36%; DK: 34%
    Jim Murphy – Yes: 39%; No: 37%; DK: 25%
    Ruth Davidson – Yes: 27%; No: 52%; DK: 21%
    Willie Rennie – Yes: 19%; No: 50%; DK: 32%
    David Cameron – Yes: 18%; No: 70%; DK: 12%
    Nick Clegg – Yes: 10%; No: 74%; DK: 16%
    Ed Miliband – Yes: 18%; No: 63%; DK: 18%
  • Pong said:

    Good spot Mike.

    The Farage, Cameron & Clegg odds look like value if you like these sort of long-term bets.

    Long term bet? They could pay out in less than six months.

    I've got bets from 2010 that won't mature until next year.
  • Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.
  • Pulpstar said:

    How on earth does Hills price up GO still to be chancellor at 4-5 but Dave not to be Tory leader at 7-4, that's what I want to know :D

    George Osborne is thought to want a move to Foreign Secretary after the election.
  • Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Near perfect result for me.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    @MSmithsonPB: Hills offering 3/1 that Farage ceases to be Ukip leader during 2015. Hard to him carrying on if he fails in Thanet S as latest poll shows
  • Nigel Farage has said he'll stand down as UKIP leader if there are no UKIP MPs and it's hard to see him keeping the job if there are UKIP MPs and he's not one. So you might treat the 3/1 as a bet against Nigel Farage winning Thanet South. You can also back him to win a seat at 4/5 with BetVictor (if you can get on with that bookie - I can't).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited December 2014

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth does Hills price up GO still to be chancellor at 4-5 but Dave not to be Tory leader at 7-4, that's what I want to know :D

    George Osborne is thought to want a move to Foreign Secretary after the election.
    Hmm the 4-5 is even worse value than it first may appear then. One to swerve.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited December 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    2016 or 2015 ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    2016 or 2015 ?
    2016 - Just over two years from today.
  • Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Near perfect result for me.
    You're not the only Kipper to express that sentiment.
  • Sajid Javid is 16/1 to be next Tory leader

    IDS tops our Cabinet league table again, May falls, and Javid is now third

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/12/javid-enters-the-top-three-in-our-cabinet-league-table.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    2016 or 2015 ?
    2016 - Just over two years from today.
    Well so long as he doesn't leave before May 2015 ^_~
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited December 2014

    Pong said:

    Good spot Mike.

    The Farage, Cameron & Clegg odds look like value if you like these sort of long-term bets.

    Long term bet? They could pay out in less than six months.

    I've got bets from 2010 that won't mature until next year.
    I've previously had to argue with Hills on paying out on their will-still-be-home-secretary-at-the-end-of-the-year special from ages ago. IIRC, it was Jaqui smith back in 2009. They weren't prepared to budge on holding out until the end of the year before settling the bet after the resignation and wouldn't enter into discussions. I tried & tried & tried, but got nowhere.

    For the record, I've never had this problem with any bookie other than Hills.
  • In the interests of full disclosure, my main betting action remains on the SNP in the constituency markets.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Good spots indeed.

    However, although I broadly agree with the posts below I do think Farage could and would seek to remain leader even if he personally fails to win his seat. I could be wrong, but he's a much bigger name on the national stage than Carswell. And would he want to relinquish the leadership given UKIP are surging? Would he want a Johnny Come Lately to take his shiny crown?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
  • Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Good spot Mike.

    The Farage, Cameron & Clegg odds look like value if you like these sort of long-term bets.

    Long term bet? They could pay out in less than six months.

    I've got bets from 2010 that won't mature until next year.
    I've previously had to argue with Hills on paying out on their will-still-be-home-secretary-at-the-end-of-the-year special from ages ago. IIRC, it was Jaqui smith back in 2009. They weren't prepared to budge on holding out until the end of the year before settling the bet after the resignation and wouldn't enter into discussions. I tried & tried & tried, but got nowhere.

    For the record, I've never had this problem with any bookie other than Hills.
    The one that irked me was Betfair voiding the year of the next election market.
  • Mr. Eagles, are you suggesting Carswell will join Veritas?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Good spots indeed.

    However, although I broadly agree with the posts below I do think Farage could and would seek to remain leader even if he personally fails to win his seat. I could be wrong, but he's a much bigger name on the national stage than Carswell. And would he want to relinquish the leadership given UKIP are surging? Would he want a Johnny Come Lately to take his shiny crown?

    Well.

    This is quite a simple one to answer - If he fails to win Thanet South, they won't be surging enough. And he isn't 1-3 there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Good spot Mike.

    The Farage, Cameron & Clegg odds look like value if you like these sort of long-term bets.

    Long term bet? They could pay out in less than six months.

    I've got bets from 2010 that won't mature until next year.
    I've previously had to argue with Hills on paying out on their will-still-be-home-secretary-at-the-end-of-the-year special from ages ago. IIRC, it was Jaqui smith back in 2009. They weren't prepared to budge on holding out until the end of the year before settling the bet after the resignation and wouldn't enter into discussions. I tried & tried & tried, but got nowhere.

    For the record, I've never had this problem with any bookie other than Hills.
    I've got a Berlusconi bet with Paddy that could take a while to pay out but is pretty much a cert.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
    They weren't at the very top of the Tory party.

    Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    I enjoyed the discussion about whether "chinky" was suitable terminology, and the consensus from our progressives was that it depended on whether the Chinese community found it offensive. Seems reasonable; if someone is offended, you shouldn't use the word.

    What would happen on PB if a Ukip member found the word Kipper offensive? It is bandied around as a term of abuse frequently. I know it's unlikely but would the response be "No, we'll call you what we like"?

    Ah, you may say, but a Kipper isn't a race. True, but if the important thing is subjective feelings of offence, that shouldn't matter.

    Yes, I am teasing, but is there a correct answer?
  • Mr. Eagles, are you suggesting Carswell will join Veritas?

    The People's Front for Judea.

    If he goes, he'll go Independent.
  • CD13 said:

    I enjoyed the discussion about whether "chinky" was suitable terminology, and the consensus from our progressives was that it depended on whether the Chinese community found it offensive. Seems reasonable; if someone is offended, you shouldn't use the word.

    What would happen on PB if a Ukip member found the word Kipper offensive? It is bandied around as a term of abuse frequently. I know it's unlikely but would the response be "No, we'll call you what we like"?

    Ah, you may say, but a Kipper isn't a race. True, but if the important thing is subjective feelings of offence, that shouldn't matter.

    Yes, I am teasing, but is there a correct answer?

    Yes, I find Kippers offensive, that's what you meant right?
  • Mr. CD13, certain terms have fallen into disuse or been verboten here. An old one was blue harpies, another 'astroturf'.

    If Kippers disliked the term, I'd suggest finding an alternative, but Kipper doesn't seem so bad.
  • Times are reporting that Crystal Palace and Newcastle have agreed a deal to let Alan Pardew become Palace's new manager
  • CD13 said:

    I enjoyed the discussion about whether "chinky" was suitable terminology, and the consensus from our progressives was that it depended on whether the Chinese community found it offensive. Seems reasonable; if someone is offended, you shouldn't use the word.

    What would happen on PB if a Ukip member found the word Kipper offensive? It is bandied around as a term of abuse frequently. I know it's unlikely but would the response be "No, we'll call you what we like"?

    Ah, you may say, but a Kipper isn't a race. True, but if the important thing is subjective feelings of offence, that shouldn't matter.

    Yes, I am teasing, but is there a correct answer?

    We need a collective noun of UKIP supporters. If kipper were found to be offensive, I'd happily switch to something else. Since no one actually seems to dislike it, I'll carry on using it.

    But UKIP supporters can't expect everyone to be nice about them just because. They'll have to put up with some insults too and some of them will be annoying.
  • antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    I enjoyed the discussion about whether "chinky" was suitable terminology, and the consensus from our progressives was that it depended on whether the Chinese community found it offensive. Seems reasonable; if someone is offended, you shouldn't use the word.

    What would happen on PB if a Ukip member found the word Kipper offensive? It is bandied around as a term of abuse frequently. I know it's unlikely but would the response be "No, we'll call you what we like"?

    Ah, you may say, but a Kipper isn't a race. True, but if the important thing is subjective feelings of offence, that shouldn't matter.

    Yes, I am teasing, but is there a correct answer?

    We need a collective noun of UKIP supporters. If kipper were found to be offensive, I'd happily switch to something else. Since no one actually seems to dislike it, I'll carry on using it.

    But UKIP supporters can't expect everyone to be nice about them just because. They'll have to put up with some insults too and some of them will be annoying.
    Collective Noun for UKIP supporters

    How about a Fruitcake of Loons?
  • Mr. CD13, certain terms have fallen into disuse or been verboten here. An old one was blue harpies, another 'astroturf'.

    If Kippers disliked the term, I'd suggest finding an alternative, but Kipper doesn't seem so bad.

    What is the Russian for astroturf?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Dancer,

    "Kipper doesn't seem so bad."

    It isn't, but that's not the point. It is de rigeur for some to jump on the offence bus on behalf of others.

    I'd be happy for Tories to be baby-eating scum, Labour to be treacherous Commies, LDs to be bed-wetting Guardinistas and the Greens to be la-la land loonies.

    When do you stray into "Reductio Ad Absurdum"?
  • Mr. Eagles, as a fruity fellow yourself, wouldn't that lead many pbers to assume you're a Kipper?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
    They weren't at the very top of the Tory party.

    Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
    They were, and still are, in the party though. How does that sit with you?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Nya nyah nah nyah nyah posting seems to have infected this site at the highest levels.

    In that spirit I see that Aidan still-got-the-whip Burley is not a racist. I rather thought he was, but an official Conservative Party inquiry found that he wasn't, so he can't be.

    Perhaps you could point us to a parallel official finding by Ukip that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the third Reich ain't racism, no sirree, and to a Ukip member who has behaved in a similar fashion without being expelled by the partyt?



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Times are reporting that Crystal Palace and Newcastle have agreed a deal to let Alan Pardew become Palace's new manager

    The eight year contract was a stroke of genius by Ashley.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Eagles,

    "Fruitcake of Loons?"

    That seems fine.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
    They weren't at the very top of the Tory party.

    Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
    They were, and still are, in the party though. How does that sit with you?
    Fortunately most of them have defected to UKIP.

    As I said, the intolerance towards migrants and the gays hasn't flowed from the top of the Tory party.

    But for once in your life Nigel, criticise UKIP's more offensive members and candidates, I mean it is what Douglas Carswell is doing.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Nya nyah nah nyah nyah posting seems to have infected this site at the highest levels.

    In that spirit I see that Aidan still-got-the-whip Burley is not a racist. I rather thought he was, but an official Conservative Party inquiry found that he wasn't, so he can't be.

    Perhaps you could point us to a parallel official finding by Ukip that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the third Reich ain't racism, no sirree, and to a Ukip member who has behaved in a similar fashion without being expelled by the partyt?

    Does Bill Etheridge count?

    He was telling Kippers to emulate Hitler.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
    They weren't at the very top of the Tory party.

    Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
    They were, and still are, in the party though. How does that sit with you?
    Fortunately most of them have defected to UKIP.

    As I said, the intolerance towards migrants and the gays hasn't flowed from the top of the Tory party.

    But for once in your life Nigel, criticise UKIP's more offensive members and candidates, I mean it is what Douglas Carswell is doing.
    Nope. Most of them have stayed with the Tories and been joined by former BNP members. They know they have a better chance of being able to remain as councillors when they get found out if they are in the Tory party.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
    They weren't at the very top of the Tory party.

    Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
    They were, and still are, in the party though. How does that sit with you?
    Fortunately most of them have defected to UKIP.

    As I said, the intolerance towards migrants and the gays hasn't flowed from the top of the Tory party.

    But for once in your life Nigel, criticise UKIP's more offensive members and candidates, I mean it is what Douglas Carswell is doing.
    Nope. Most of them have stayed with the Tories and been joined by former BNP members. They know they have a better chance of being able to remain as councillors when they get found out if they are in the Tory party.
    Or if they are ex National Front in UKIP.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
    They weren't at the very top of the Tory party.

    Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
    Had they been kippers, they now wouldn't be at an level at all of the party.

    Big Aidan still in the party, still got the whip, wasn't even deselected. Well done the tories for spotting that, despite appearances, he wasn't a racist after all. Phew!

  • calum said:

    The SNP are continuing to drip feed the results of the recent Panelbase poll. The results of the trust question are particularly interesting. Nick Clegg is so unpopular !!

    Do you trust [NAME] to stand up for Scotland’s interests?
    Nicola Sturgeon – Yes: 59%; No: 27%; DK: 14%
    John Swinney – Yes: 42%; No: 28%; DK: 29%
    Patrick Harvie – Yes: 30%; No: 36%; DK: 34%
    Jim Murphy – Yes: 39%; No: 37%; DK: 25%
    Ruth Davidson – Yes: 27%; No: 52%; DK: 21%
    Willie Rennie – Yes: 19%; No: 50%; DK: 32%
    David Cameron – Yes: 18%; No: 70%; DK: 12%
    Nick Clegg – Yes: 10%; No: 74%; DK: 16%
    Ed Miliband – Yes: 18%; No: 63%; DK: 18%

    Why would Cameron Clegg or Miliband "stand up for 8% of the country's interests"?
  • antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    I enjoyed the discussion about whether "chinky" was suitable terminology, and the consensus from our progressives was that it depended on whether the Chinese community found it offensive. Seems reasonable; if someone is offended, you shouldn't use the word.

    What would happen on PB if a Ukip member found the word Kipper offensive? It is bandied around as a term of abuse frequently. I know it's unlikely but would the response be "No, we'll call you what we like"?

    Ah, you may say, but a Kipper isn't a race. True, but if the important thing is subjective feelings of offence, that shouldn't matter.

    Yes, I am teasing, but is there a correct answer?

    We need a collective noun of UKIP supporters. If kipper were found to be offensive, I'd happily switch to something else. Since no one actually seems to dislike it, I'll carry on using it.

    But UKIP supporters can't expect everyone to be nice about them just because. They'll have to put up with some insults too and some of them will be annoying.
    Kipper seems a perfectly valid label. It always surprises me that, given its historical origins, the Conservatives don't object to being called Tories.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something in Dave ceasing to be leader @ 7-4 being very good odds ?

    You think they're good, or you don't? As I see it, Cameron is at best a coin toss to be PM in June 2015. And if he isn't, his chances of holding off a leadership challenge are minimal. So he should be roughly evens to go.
    Be careful. I suspect if there is a 3 way coalition, any deal involving an S&C agreement or a minority Labour government he might hold on with a view to being in place if there is a second election in the autumn.

    So he might go early in 2016 if it looks like whatever arrangement has staying power.

    (As an aside, presumably if the Tories were to have a leadership contest in, say, Q1 2016 it would be very bad form for the government to call an election then!)

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    I think that there is a very good chance of him contesting - and holding - Clacton as an independent in 2020.
  • antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    I enjoyed the discussion about whether "chinky" was suitable terminology, and the consensus from our progressives was that it depended on whether the Chinese community found it offensive. Seems reasonable; if someone is offended, you shouldn't use the word.

    What would happen on PB if a Ukip member found the word Kipper offensive? It is bandied around as a term of abuse frequently. I know it's unlikely but would the response be "No, we'll call you what we like"?

    Ah, you may say, but a Kipper isn't a race. True, but if the important thing is subjective feelings of offence, that shouldn't matter.

    Yes, I am teasing, but is there a correct answer?

    We need a collective noun of UKIP supporters. If kipper were found to be offensive, I'd happily switch to something else. Since no one actually seems to dislike it, I'll carry on using it.

    But UKIP supporters can't expect everyone to be nice about them just because. They'll have to put up with some insults too and some of them will be annoying.
    Collective Noun for UKIP supporters

    How about a Fruitcake of Loons?
    A Genoa of Fruitcakes?

  • Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
    They weren't at the very top of the Tory party.

    Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
    They were, and still are, in the party though. How does that sit with you?
    Fortunately most of them have defected to UKIP.

    As I said, the intolerance towards migrants and the gays hasn't flowed from the top of the Tory party.

    But for once in your life Nigel, criticise UKIP's more offensive members and candidates, I mean it is what Douglas Carswell is doing.
    Nope. Most of them have stayed with the Tories and been joined by former BNP members. They know they have a better chance of being able to remain as councillors when they get found out if they are in the Tory party.
    And yet it is UKIP which has the worst brand image and BNP-lite as we youngsters seem to view the party (I'm an honourary youth it seems) - we've had this before though, you disagree from personal on the ground experience....

    Anyway I think I'd be betting on Cameron and Farage at those odds.
  • The Guardian lists 10 diktats from Brussels that are ruining life in Britain:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/19/10-diktats-from-brussels-that-are-ruining-life-in-britain

    Don't get too excited though, purple brethren.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    and it's hard to see him keeping the job if there are UKIP MPs and he's not one.

    You mean like how Caroline Lucas became Green leader?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    I enjoyed the discussion about whether "chinky" was suitable terminology, and the consensus from our progressives was that it depended on whether the Chinese community found it offensive. Seems reasonable; if someone is offended, you shouldn't use the word.

    What would happen on PB if a Ukip member found the word Kipper offensive? It is bandied around as a term of abuse frequently. I know it's unlikely but would the response be "No, we'll call you what we like"?

    Ah, you may say, but a Kipper isn't a race. True, but if the important thing is subjective feelings of offence, that shouldn't matter.

    Yes, I am teasing, but is there a correct answer?

    We need a collective noun of UKIP supporters. If kipper were found to be offensive, I'd happily switch to something else. Since no one actually seems to dislike it, I'll carry on using it.

    But UKIP supporters can't expect everyone to be nice about them just because. They'll have to put up with some insults too and some of them will be annoying.
    Don't forget that "Tory" is technically an insult!

    mid 17th century: probably from Irish toraidhe ‘outlaw, highwayman,’ from tóir ‘pursue.’ The word was used of Irish peasants dispossessed by English settlers and living as robbers, and extended to other marauders especially in the Scottish Highlands. It was then adopted circa 1679 as an abusive nickname for supporters of the Catholic James II.

    https://www.google.com/search?q="tory"+meaning&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    edited December 2014

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
    They weren't at the very top of the Tory party.

    Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
    They were, and still are, in the party though. How does that sit with you?
    Fortunately most of them have defected to UKIP.

    As I said, the intolerance towards migrants and the gays hasn't flowed from the top of the Tory party.

    But for once in your life Nigel, criticise UKIP's more offensive members and candidates, I mean it is what Douglas Carswell is doing.
    Nope. Most of them have stayed with the Tories and been joined by former BNP members. They know they have a better chance of being able to remain as councillors when they get found out if they are in the Tory party.
    Or if they are ex National Front in UKIP.
    I would bet there are more ex national front members in the Conservatives than in UKIP given that you have no procedure to exclude them. Indeed, judging by the comments of many of your councillors it seems you actively encourage and support racists and homophobes.

    You see TSE, this is a battle you can't win. We all know there are plenty of unsavoury characters in the Tory party and for every stone you throw we can throw one right back at you. Of course we don't until you start down this hypocritical route but we do hope that one day you might realise the futility of this idiocy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited December 2014
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · Nov 24
    Con to Lab % swings at Westminster by-elections compared with GE 2010 for each seat. Average = 7.65%

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/537044601065197569

  • Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Nya nyah nah nyah nyah posting seems to have infected this site at the highest levels.

    In that spirit I see that Aidan still-got-the-whip Burley is not a racist. I rather thought he was, but an official Conservative Party inquiry found that he wasn't, so he can't be.

    Perhaps you could point us to a parallel official finding by Ukip that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the third Reich ain't racism, no sirree, and to a Ukip member who has behaved in a similar fashion without being expelled by the partyt?

    Does Bill Etheridge count?

    He was telling Kippers to emulate Hitler.
    No he wasn't. Which is why so many of the local Sikh community came out to support him after he was smeared by morons like you.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Was he keen on the ones in the Tory party?
    They weren't at the very top of the Tory party.

    Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
    They were, and still are, in the party though. How does that sit with you?
    Fortunately most of them have defected to UKIP.

    As I said, the intolerance towards migrants and the gays hasn't flowed from the top of the Tory party.

    But for once in your life Nigel, criticise UKIP's more offensive members and candidates, I mean it is what Douglas Carswell is doing.
    Certainly, I have said many times on here that tribal politics is both childish and depressing, and it seems to start with the people at the top of this site.

    Not giving credit to political opponents is pathetic, for example Brown kept us out of the Euro, the Lib Dems have pushed up the personal tax threshold (though it was also UKIP policy), both excellent policies.

    I will be 60 next year and for the first time in my life I could conceivably have voted Tory, on the basis that Osborne has done a magnificent job of getting growth back without creating mass unemployment and Gove was taking on the destructive and highly dangerous teaching unions. Then they sacked Gove and the reality dawns that Dave is a liar, so UKIP it is for me.

    As for some UKIP members, yes there are many undesirables amongst them, mostly ex-Tory members. In fact if there a direct correlation between the Tory membership sinking like a stone it is all those stalwarts that supported the local Conservative club and helped fund the party for many years leaving in droves. It seems the Tories were happy to take the money back in the day, now they are fruitcakes and loonies.
  • Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    and it's hard to see him keeping the job if there are UKIP MPs and he's not one.

    You mean like how Caroline Lucas became Green leader?
    Erm, Caroline Lucas was Green leader in 2010 when she was elected an MP. She voluntarily stood down in 2012 specifically to broaden opportunities for others.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Nya nyah nah nyah nyah posting seems to have infected this site at the highest levels.

    In that spirit I see that Aidan still-got-the-whip Burley is not a racist. I rather thought he was, but an official Conservative Party inquiry found that he wasn't, so he can't be.

    Perhaps you could point us to a parallel official finding by Ukip that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the third Reich ain't racism, no sirree, and to a Ukip member who has behaved in a similar fashion without being expelled by the partyt?

    Does Bill Etheridge count?

    He was telling Kippers to emulate Hitler.
    No he wasn't. Which is why so many of the local Sikh community came out to support him after he was smeared by morons like you.
    Morons? I guess that's why he apologised.

    Only a moron would apologise if he had been smeared
  • By the way AntiFrank I think you are spot on with your summary of UKIP possibilities at the GE. The only one I might think is more of a long shot than you believe is Thanet South as I don't honestly think Farage will be able to win in a polarised personality clash.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Charles said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something in Dave ceasing to be leader @ 7-4 being very good odds ?

    You think they're good, or you don't? As I see it, Cameron is at best a coin toss to be PM in June 2015. And if he isn't, his chances of holding off a leadership challenge are minimal. So he should be roughly evens to go.
    Be careful. I suspect if there is a 3 way coalition, any deal involving an S&C agreement or a minority Labour government he might hold on with a view to being in place if there is a second election in the autumn.

    So he might go early in 2016 if it looks like whatever arrangement has staying power.

    (As an aside, presumably if the Tories were to have a leadership contest in, say, Q1 2016 it would be very bad form for the government to call an election then!)

    Bad form? They'd be stupid not to do it.
  • By the way AntiFrank I think you are spot on with your summary of UKIP possibilities at the GE. The only one I might think is more of a long shot than you believe is Thanet South as I don't honestly think Farage will be able to win in a polarised personality clash.

    That's very reassuring to hear. Of all the parties, I'm well aware that UKIP is the party that I get least.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    calum said:

    The SNP are continuing to drip feed the results of the recent Panelbase poll. The results of the trust question are particularly interesting. Nick Clegg is so unpopular !!

    Do you trust [NAME] to stand up for Scotland’s interests?
    Nicola Sturgeon – Yes: 59%; No: 27%; DK: 14%
    John Swinney – Yes: 42%; No: 28%; DK: 29%
    Patrick Harvie – Yes: 30%; No: 36%; DK: 34%
    Jim Murphy – Yes: 39%; No: 37%; DK: 25%
    Ruth Davidson – Yes: 27%; No: 52%; DK: 21%
    Willie Rennie – Yes: 19%; No: 50%; DK: 32%
    David Cameron – Yes: 18%; No: 70%; DK: 12%
    Nick Clegg – Yes: 10%; No: 74%; DK: 16%
    Ed Miliband – Yes: 18%; No: 63%; DK: 18%

    Why would Cameron Clegg or Miliband "stand up for 8% of the country's interests"?
    As we're all supposedly ''better together''. The SNP's full write up and data table can be found here:

    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/dec/fm-dfm-most-trusted-stand-scotland

    Interestingly Jim Murphy is more popular with Tories than with SLAB supporters.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Nya nyah nah nyah nyah posting seems to have infected this site at the highest levels.

    In that spirit I see that Aidan still-got-the-whip Burley is not a racist. I rather thought he was, but an official Conservative Party inquiry found that he wasn't, so he can't be.

    Perhaps you could point us to a parallel official finding by Ukip that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the third Reich ain't racism, no sirree, and to a Ukip member who has behaved in a similar fashion without being expelled by the partyt?

    Does Bill Etheridge count?

    He was telling Kippers to emulate Hitler.
    No he wasn't. Which is why so many of the local Sikh community came out to support him after he was smeared by morons like you.
    Morons? I guess that's why he apologised.

    Only a moron would apologise if he had been smeared
    Nope he apologised for having given any offence but made clear that he was being partially quoted (as he clearly was). It is only sad sacks like you who ignore that and try to make something more of it.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Nya nyah nah nyah nyah posting seems to have infected this site at the highest levels.

    In that spirit I see that Aidan still-got-the-whip Burley is not a racist. I rather thought he was, but an official Conservative Party inquiry found that he wasn't, so he can't be.

    Perhaps you could point us to a parallel official finding by Ukip that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the third Reich ain't racism, no sirree, and to a Ukip member who has behaved in a similar fashion without being expelled by the partyt?

    Does Bill Etheridge count?

    He was telling Kippers to emulate Hitler.
    No he wasn't. Which is why so many of the local Sikh community came out to support him after he was smeared by morons like you.
    Morons? I guess that's why he apologised.

    Only a moron would apologise if he had been smeared
    Nope he apologised for having given any offence but made clear that he was being partially quoted (as he clearly was). It is only sad sacks like you who ignore that and try to make something more of it.
    So far, you've called me a Moron and a sad sack, whilst I've been civil to you.

    I must have hit a nerve.

    Anyway, I must dash and go buy a microwave before the shops close.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    edited December 2014

    Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re Farage, the only plausible way I see him not being leader is if UKIP have some MPs next May and he isn't one of them.

    Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.

    Well Carswell is pretty much nailed on (1-5 or so) and Farage is probably a 4-6 shot so the 3-1 is a decent bet too.
    I want a market on Douglas Carswell no longer being in UKIP on 31/12/2016

    I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
    Nya nyah nah nyah nyah posting seems to have infected this site at the highest levels.

    In that spirit I see that Aidan still-got-the-whip Burley is not a racist. I rather thought he was, but an official Conservative Party inquiry found that he wasn't, so he can't be.

    Perhaps you could point us to a parallel official finding by Ukip that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the third Reich ain't racism, no sirree, and to a Ukip member who has behaved in a similar fashion without being expelled by the partyt?

    Does Bill Etheridge count?

    He was telling Kippers to emulate Hitler.
    No he wasn't. Which is why so many of the local Sikh community came out to support him after he was smeared by morons like you.
    Morons? I guess that's why he apologised.

    Only a moron would apologise if he had been smeared
    Nope he apologised for having given any offence but made clear that he was being partially quoted (as he clearly was). It is only sad sacks like you who ignore that and try to make something more of it.
    So far, you've called me a Moron and a sad sack, whilst I've been civil to you.

    I must have hit a nerve.

    Anyway, I must dash and go buy a microwave before the shops close.
    You are telling lies about a personal friend (as I believe you know because we have discussed this before) . I would say that has hit a nerve yes. As usual you won't have the balls to apologise for being wrong so it probably is best that you crawl off.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something in Dave ceasing to be leader @ 7-4 being very good odds ?

    You think they're good, or you don't? As I see it, Cameron is at best a coin toss to be PM in June 2015. And if he isn't, his chances of holding off a leadership challenge are minimal. So he should be roughly evens to go.
    Be careful. I suspect if there is a 3 way coalition, any deal involving an S&C agreement or a minority Labour government he might hold on with a view to being in place if there is a second election in the autumn.

    So he might go early in 2016 if it looks like whatever arrangement has staying power.

    (As an aside, presumably if the Tories were to have a leadership contest in, say, Q1 2016 it would be very bad form for the government to call an election then!)

    Bad form? They'd be stupid not to do it.
    I suspect they would be absolutely panned for being undemocratic.

    Are there any precedents - in any Western democracy - in a government calling an opportunistic election when the main opposition doesn't have a leader?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something in Dave ceasing to be leader @ 7-4 being very good odds ?

    You think they're good, or you don't? As I see it, Cameron is at best a coin toss to be PM in June 2015. And if he isn't, his chances of holding off a leadership challenge are minimal. So he should be roughly evens to go.
    Be careful. I suspect if there is a 3 way coalition, any deal involving an S&C agreement or a minority Labour government he might hold on with a view to being in place if there is a second election in the autumn.

    So he might go early in 2016 if it looks like whatever arrangement has staying power.

    (As an aside, presumably if the Tories were to have a leadership contest in, say, Q1 2016 it would be very bad form for the government to call an election then!)

    Bad form? They'd be stupid not to do it.
    I suspect they would be absolutely panned for being undemocratic.

    Are there any precedents - in any Western democracy - in a government calling an opportunistic election when the main opposition doesn't have a leader?
    Malcolm Frazer 1983 - tried it on, but Hawke won a majority.

  • calum said:

    calum said:

    The SNP are continuing to drip feed the results of the recent Panelbase poll. The results of the trust question are particularly interesting. Nick Clegg is so unpopular !!

    Do you trust [NAME] to stand up for Scotland’s interests?
    Nicola Sturgeon – Yes: 59%; No: 27%; DK: 14%
    John Swinney – Yes: 42%; No: 28%; DK: 29%
    Patrick Harvie – Yes: 30%; No: 36%; DK: 34%
    Jim Murphy – Yes: 39%; No: 37%; DK: 25%
    Ruth Davidson – Yes: 27%; No: 52%; DK: 21%
    Willie Rennie – Yes: 19%; No: 50%; DK: 32%
    David Cameron – Yes: 18%; No: 70%; DK: 12%
    Nick Clegg – Yes: 10%; No: 74%; DK: 16%
    Ed Miliband – Yes: 18%; No: 63%; DK: 18%

    Why would Cameron Clegg or Miliband "stand up for 8% of the country's interests"?
    As we're all supposedly ''better together''. The SNP's full write up and data table can be found here:

    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/dec/fm-dfm-most-trusted-stand-scotland

    Interestingly Jim Murphy is more popular with Tories than with SLAB supporters.
    "Better Together" includes the other 92% of the UK......
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited December 2014
    Hmm so's who more racist and bigoted? The Tories or UKIP?

    I would probably say the Tories....
  • murali_s said:

    Hmm so's who more racist and bigoted? The Tories or UKIP?

    I would probably say the Tories....

    Labour voters, according to the last Labour PM......
  • murali_s said:

    Hmm so's who more racist and bigoted? The Tories or UKIP?

    I would probably say the Tories....

    UKIP have at least recognised the potential for racists and bigots to try and get into the party and so have put in place measures to try and stop or at least limit them. The Tories simply pretend it is nothing to do with them even when they have councillors being cautioned by the police for racist or homophobic comments. They just let them carry on in office with no action taken against them.
  • If a party called an election whilst the main party of opposition had no leader the former party would look like utter shysters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    calum said:

    calum said:

    The SNP are continuing to drip feed the results of the recent Panelbase poll. The results of the trust question are particularly interesting. Nick Clegg is so unpopular !!

    Do you trust [NAME] to stand up for Scotland’s interests?
    Nicola Sturgeon – Yes: 59%; No: 27%; DK: 14%
    John Swinney – Yes: 42%; No: 28%; DK: 29%
    Patrick Harvie – Yes: 30%; No: 36%; DK: 34%
    Jim Murphy – Yes: 39%; No: 37%; DK: 25%
    Ruth Davidson – Yes: 27%; No: 52%; DK: 21%
    Willie Rennie – Yes: 19%; No: 50%; DK: 32%
    David Cameron – Yes: 18%; No: 70%; DK: 12%
    Nick Clegg – Yes: 10%; No: 74%; DK: 16%
    Ed Miliband – Yes: 18%; No: 63%; DK: 18%

    Why would Cameron Clegg or Miliband "stand up for 8% of the country's interests"?
    As we're all supposedly ''better together''. The SNP's full write up and data table can be found here:

    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/dec/fm-dfm-most-trusted-stand-scotland

    Interestingly Jim Murphy is more popular with Tories than with SLAB supporters.
    Murphy could pick up a few tactical Tories I think. But not sure how many...
  • Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 3m
    Labour weekly % leads since mid-August measured by Sunil on Sunday ELBOW and by simple averages for direct comparison

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/549617089477378049
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Over the years there has been some absolute tosh peddled on PB..but today seems to be worse than ever..Smacks of desperation from Labour and the UKIPS..The word Flailing comes to mind...Ukip members on PB are terrified of Cameron actually holding a referendum.
  • Over the years there has been some absolute tosh peddled on PB..but today seems to be worse than ever..Smacks of desperation from Labour and the UKIPS..The word Flailing comes to mind...Ukip members on PB are terrified of Cameron actually holding a referendum.

    Keep believing that Richard. It just shows how out of touch you are.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    RT Can you honestly say you want Cameron to hold a referendum..you in particular seem to be afraid of the outcome..which would probably be OUT
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    I enjoyed the discussion about whether "chinky" was suitable terminology, and the consensus from our progressives was that it depended on whether the Chinese community found it offensive. Seems reasonable; if someone is offended, you shouldn't use the word.

    What would happen on PB if a Ukip member found the word Kipper offensive? It is bandied around as a term of abuse frequently. I know it's unlikely but would the response be "No, we'll call you what we like"?

    Ah, you may say, but a Kipper isn't a race. True, but if the important thing is subjective feelings of offence, that shouldn't matter.

    Yes, I am teasing, but is there a correct answer?

    We need a collective noun of UKIP supporters. If kipper were found to be offensive, I'd happily switch to something else. Since no one actually seems to dislike it, I'll carry on using it.

    But UKIP supporters can't expect everyone to be nice about them just because. They'll have to put up with some insults too and some of them will be annoying.
    Collective Noun for UKIP supporters

    How about a Fruitcake of Loons?
    A Genoa of Fruitcakes?

    Somebody Stollen my country?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709

    If a party called an election whilst the main party of opposition had no leader the former party would look like utter shysters.

    And your point is?
  • RT Can you honestly say you want Cameron to hold a referendum..you in particular seem to be afraid of the outcome..which would probably be OUT

    My aim is to leave the EU. As long as Cameron remains as PM that is a very slim possibility. We already know he is not serious about renegotiation since he has not left himself enough time for anything meaningful and, more importantly, concrete. I believe Carswell when he says that Cameron is only playing lip service to renegotiation and repatriation of powers.

    As such I see Cameron as an obstacle to our leaving not a facilitator. For me the worst possible result would be Cameron winning the referendum for the In side in 2017 as it would set back our eventual withdrawal by decades. We already know that the Europhiles - and I count Cameron as one of them - will not allow a level playing field for any referendum so it is far more important to see him gone and a truly Eurosceptic leader of the Conservatives in place than it is to have his phony vote in 2017.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''RT Can you honestly say you want Cameron to hold a referendum..you in particular seem to be afraid of the outcome..which would probably be OUT''

    When did you start thinking that UKIP was about Europe??? I reckon 70-80% of kippers posts on here are about Burkhas, ISIS, Terrorists, mass rape in Rotherham, Tower Hamlets, Lee Rigby, lack of integration among muslims etc. etc. etc.

    Whether David Cameron holds a referendum or not is completely inconsequential to UKIPers. They want a Britain that is very, very different from the Britain of today, of which getting out of Europe is a small part and a means to an end.

    David Cameron may deliver a referendum, but he would never deliver UKippers the Britain they want.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    RT Can you honestly say you want Cameron to hold a referendum..you in particular seem to be afraid of the outcome..which would probably be OUT

    Out? Surely 'In'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    Further to my reply to Mr D, the 2017 referendum could well be held when one of the major parties is changing leaders.

    And, for the avoidance of doubt although I'll be campaigning for IN I'd like to have a referendum so we can get a solid 60% or more in favour and put the negativity to bed.
  • taffys said:

    ''RT Can you honestly say you want Cameron to hold a referendum..you in particular seem to be afraid of the outcome..which would probably be OUT''

    When did you start thinking that UKIP was about Europe??? I reckon 70-80% of kippers posts on here are about Burkhas, ISIS, Terrorists, mass rape in Rotherham, Tower Hamlets, Lee Rigby, lack of integration among muslims etc. etc. etc.

    Whether David Cameron holds a referendum or not is completely inconsequential to UKIPers. They want a Britain that is very, very different from the Britain of today, of which getting out of Europe is a small part and a means to an end.

    David Cameron may deliver a referendum, but he would never deliver UKippers the Britain they want.

    Taffys he was talking to me not about UKIP. I don't jump on the Islam bashing wagon nor do I think that generally rape and terrorism are subjects for political knockabout.

    You have no idea of the Britain I want - which is very similar to that envisaged and espoused by RCS. It certainly isn't the one you believe drives my membership of UKIP.
  • King Cole, a referendum is a different bag of monkeys.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2014
    taffys said:

    ''RT Can you honestly say you want Cameron to hold a referendum..you in particular seem to be afraid of the outcome..which would probably be OUT''

    When did you start thinking that UKIP was about Europe??? I reckon 70-80% of kippers posts on here are about Burkhas, ISIS, Terrorists, mass rape in Rotherham, Tower Hamlets, Lee Rigby, lack of integration among muslims etc. etc. etc.

    Whether David Cameron holds a referendum or not is completely inconsequential to UKIPers. They want a Britain that is very, very different from the Britain of today, of which getting out of Europe is a small part and a means to an end.

    David Cameron may deliver a referendum, but he would never deliver UKippers the Britain they want.


    Indeed. Kippers want to turn back the clock to a golden era when steam trains ran on time, taxi drivers wore uniforms, and immigrants stayed overseas. A vision of Britain, that only ever existed in a fantasy.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    RT A referendum is one man/woman,one vote How on earth do you think Cameron can swing that his way..if ,as you say, ..he is a closet Europhile..If the population think he has not got a good deal then they will vote accordingly...Cameron only has one vote..just like you..You will not be offered the choice with Labour .
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709

    King Cole, a referendum is a different bag of monkeys.

    True; it's high time the European Movement stretched itself after a long sleep as a campaigning organisation, put a team together and, like the Guardian the other day pointed up the considerable benefits being in the EU has brought us.

    Still having bees, consequently apples, for a start.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited December 2014
    The Watcher..The way that the EU is shaping up over the next two years then the outcome will definitely be OUT

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Kippers want to turn back the clock to a golden era when steam trains ran on time, taxi drivers wore uniforms, and immigrants stayed overseas.''

    To be honest I think the vision for Britain of kippers would differ wildly from kipper to kipper. Some visions would be eminently reasonable, others much less so.
  • King Cole, the EU (and eurozone) as currently constituted is not merely bad, it's indefensible, unsustainable and despicable.

    The options we face are an orderly and civilised disentanglement or a disorderly and chaotic disintegration.
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