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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some good 2015 “leader going” odds here from William Hill
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some good 2015 “leader going” odds here from William Hill
Some goods odds here William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz pic.twitter.com/g6OEVnGGeK
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I think Dave should be priced at Evens and Nick ~ 4-7 something like that.
6-4 on Clegg is a cracking price too.
The Farage, Cameron & Clegg odds look like value if you like these sort of long-term bets.
Do you trust [NAME] to stand up for Scotland’s interests?
Nicola Sturgeon – Yes: 59%; No: 27%; DK: 14%
John Swinney – Yes: 42%; No: 28%; DK: 29%
Patrick Harvie – Yes: 30%; No: 36%; DK: 34%
Jim Murphy – Yes: 39%; No: 37%; DK: 25%
Ruth Davidson – Yes: 27%; No: 52%; DK: 21%
Willie Rennie – Yes: 19%; No: 50%; DK: 32%
David Cameron – Yes: 18%; No: 70%; DK: 12%
Nick Clegg – Yes: 10%; No: 74%; DK: 16%
Ed Miliband – Yes: 18%; No: 63%; DK: 18%
I've got bets from 2010 that won't mature until next year.
Douglas Carswell's contribution yesterday was interesting on that score.
I don't think he's keen on the apologists for racism and homophobia in UKIP
IDS tops our Cabinet league table again, May falls, and Javid is now third
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/12/javid-enters-the-top-three-in-our-cabinet-league-table.html
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/testing-boundaries-4-ukip-vs-all-comers.html
For the record, I've never had this problem with any bookie other than Hills.
Good spots indeed.
However, although I broadly agree with the posts below I do think Farage could and would seek to remain leader even if he personally fails to win his seat. I could be wrong, but he's a much bigger name on the national stage than Carswell. And would he want to relinquish the leadership given UKIP are surging? Would he want a Johnny Come Lately to take his shiny crown?
This is quite a simple one to answer - If he fails to win Thanet South, they won't be surging enough. And he isn't 1-3 there.
Dave never blamed immigrants for the traffic.
What would happen on PB if a Ukip member found the word Kipper offensive? It is bandied around as a term of abuse frequently. I know it's unlikely but would the response be "No, we'll call you what we like"?
Ah, you may say, but a Kipper isn't a race. True, but if the important thing is subjective feelings of offence, that shouldn't matter.
Yes, I am teasing, but is there a correct answer?
If he goes, he'll go Independent.
If Kippers disliked the term, I'd suggest finding an alternative, but Kipper doesn't seem so bad.
But UKIP supporters can't expect everyone to be nice about them just because. They'll have to put up with some insults too and some of them will be annoying.
How about a Fruitcake of Loons?
"Kipper doesn't seem so bad."
It isn't, but that's not the point. It is de rigeur for some to jump on the offence bus on behalf of others.
I'd be happy for Tories to be baby-eating scum, Labour to be treacherous Commies, LDs to be bed-wetting Guardinistas and the Greens to be la-la land loonies.
When do you stray into "Reductio Ad Absurdum"?
In that spirit I see that Aidan still-got-the-whip Burley is not a racist. I rather thought he was, but an official Conservative Party inquiry found that he wasn't, so he can't be.
Perhaps you could point us to a parallel official finding by Ukip that dressing up as a Nazi and toasting the third Reich ain't racism, no sirree, and to a Ukip member who has behaved in a similar fashion without being expelled by the partyt?
"Fruitcake of Loons?"
That seems fine.
As I said, the intolerance towards migrants and the gays hasn't flowed from the top of the Tory party.
But for once in your life Nigel, criticise UKIP's more offensive members and candidates, I mean it is what Douglas Carswell is doing.
He was telling Kippers to emulate Hitler.
Big Aidan still in the party, still got the whip, wasn't even deselected. Well done the tories for spotting that, despite appearances, he wasn't a racist after all. Phew!
So he might go early in 2016 if it looks like whatever arrangement has staying power.
(As an aside, presumably if the Tories were to have a leadership contest in, say, Q1 2016 it would be very bad form for the government to call an election then!)
Anyway I think I'd be betting on Cameron and Farage at those odds.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/19/10-diktats-from-brussels-that-are-ruining-life-in-britain
Don't get too excited though, purple brethren.
mid 17th century: probably from Irish toraidhe ‘outlaw, highwayman,’ from tóir ‘pursue.’ The word was used of Irish peasants dispossessed by English settlers and living as robbers, and extended to other marauders especially in the Scottish Highlands. It was then adopted circa 1679 as an abusive nickname for supporters of the Catholic James II.
https://www.google.com/search?q="tory"+meaning&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
You see TSE, this is a battle you can't win. We all know there are plenty of unsavoury characters in the Tory party and for every stone you throw we can throw one right back at you. Of course we don't until you start down this hypocritical route but we do hope that one day you might realise the futility of this idiocy.
Con to Lab % swings at Westminster by-elections compared with GE 2010 for each seat. Average = 7.65%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/537044601065197569
Not giving credit to political opponents is pathetic, for example Brown kept us out of the Euro, the Lib Dems have pushed up the personal tax threshold (though it was also UKIP policy), both excellent policies.
I will be 60 next year and for the first time in my life I could conceivably have voted Tory, on the basis that Osborne has done a magnificent job of getting growth back without creating mass unemployment and Gove was taking on the destructive and highly dangerous teaching unions. Then they sacked Gove and the reality dawns that Dave is a liar, so UKIP it is for me.
As for some UKIP members, yes there are many undesirables amongst them, mostly ex-Tory members. In fact if there a direct correlation between the Tory membership sinking like a stone it is all those stalwarts that supported the local Conservative club and helped fund the party for many years leaving in droves. It seems the Tories were happy to take the money back in the day, now they are fruitcakes and loonies.
Only a moron would apologise if he had been smeared
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/dec/fm-dfm-most-trusted-stand-scotland
Interestingly Jim Murphy is more popular with Tories than with SLAB supporters.
I must have hit a nerve.
Anyway, I must dash and go buy a microwave before the shops close.
Are there any precedents - in any Western democracy - in a government calling an opportunistic election when the main opposition doesn't have a leader?
I would probably say the Tories....
Labour weekly % leads since mid-August measured by Sunil on Sunday ELBOW and by simple averages for direct comparison
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/549617089477378049
As such I see Cameron as an obstacle to our leaving not a facilitator. For me the worst possible result would be Cameron winning the referendum for the In side in 2017 as it would set back our eventual withdrawal by decades. We already know that the Europhiles - and I count Cameron as one of them - will not allow a level playing field for any referendum so it is far more important to see him gone and a truly Eurosceptic leader of the Conservatives in place than it is to have his phony vote in 2017.
When did you start thinking that UKIP was about Europe??? I reckon 70-80% of kippers posts on here are about Burkhas, ISIS, Terrorists, mass rape in Rotherham, Tower Hamlets, Lee Rigby, lack of integration among muslims etc. etc. etc.
Whether David Cameron holds a referendum or not is completely inconsequential to UKIPers. They want a Britain that is very, very different from the Britain of today, of which getting out of Europe is a small part and a means to an end.
David Cameron may deliver a referendum, but he would never deliver UKippers the Britain they want.
And, for the avoidance of doubt although I'll be campaigning for IN I'd like to have a referendum so we can get a solid 60% or more in favour and put the negativity to bed.
You have no idea of the Britain I want - which is very similar to that envisaged and espoused by RCS. It certainly isn't the one you believe drives my membership of UKIP.
Indeed. Kippers want to turn back the clock to a golden era when steam trains ran on time, taxi drivers wore uniforms, and immigrants stayed overseas. A vision of Britain, that only ever existed in a fantasy.
Still having bees, consequently apples, for a start.
To be honest I think the vision for Britain of kippers would differ wildly from kipper to kipper. Some visions would be eminently reasonable, others much less so.
The options we face are an orderly and civilised disentanglement or a disorderly and chaotic disintegration.