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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON, LD and GRN seats that LAB would hope to win to offset projected 38 losses to the SNP in Scotland
If LAB does lose 38 Scots seats to SNP then these are top 38 English targets that they'd try to use to offset them pic.twitter.com/ccNddVWWlK
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Labour should be currently favourites in these 38, apart from Thurrock, Brighton Pavilion, and Stockton South.
"In October 2007, the Evening Standard reported that Joan Ryan claimed £173,691 in expenses for the 2006/2007 tax year, the highest for any MP. She was the second highest claimant in the 2005/2006 tax year.
In May 2009, it was reported that Ryan had claimed more than £4,500 under the Additional Costs Allowance for work on a house she had designated as her second home.[6] In February 2010, based on an audit report looking into the United Kingdom parliamentary expenses scandal, Ryan was asked to repay £5,121 mortgage interest."
The local Labour Chairman Viki Pite said that she was "disappointed with the selection" as she felt a "fresh start" was needed.
IIRC, Ashcroft also has the Conservatives ahead in Pudsey, too.
At the moment they have somewhere around a 5% swing in their favour in England from 2010, more than double the hardest of these targets. There may always been special or local factors but if all of these seats are not turning red in May then JackW may prove to have been right after all.
I am on an I pad and have not had issues previously.... Anyone else have an issue or is it my IPad that's causing the problem?
While here I also look at the Telegraph website but can never load comments as disqus just goes round and round before stating the obvious that it's taking longer than usual .....reload? Try that and just the same
Anyone any ideas?
Mmmmmm.....
Not helpful ...the issue is becoming more than annoying now.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/12/26/373278922/illegal-sex-and-drugs-pays-off-for-britain
Eric Dubois, director of France's statistics office, the INSEE, told the Telegraph newspaper that such commercial activities were not voluntary, and therefore it will not comply with the new EU rules. He said that prostitution was the result of "Mafia networks and trafficking illegal immigrants."
So that change in EU accounting rules which means the UK has a bigger GDP and hence has to pay billions more to the EU budget? Well France is just ignoring it.
It just makes it more annoying why we are so spineless and gold plate everything that comes out of Brussels.
Instead I endured the misery of Potters Bar Town FC going down 3-1 to Northwood.
I sometimes have problems on PB with my iphone but that is because it is an annoying piece of junk brilliantly designed to bring down western civilisation and to drive us all insane.
In both cases I often get a site-within-a-site when first logging in, but refreshing solves that
The EU is designed to screw us over at every possible concern. We can't win. We just get exploited and exploited over and over again. The spineless David Cameron came into office promising to change this situation, but every time he has made a stand he's later backed down. A pathetic, weak Prime Minister.
For those on the left who like the UK to be subservient to Brussels, this is a good situation. But those on the right need to decide whether they are happy to put up with a framework where we get milked again and again while the French get off scot-free. People need to get off the fence and work out whose side are they on: Britain's or the EU's?
Our government is so weak that not only have they given up arguing for opt-outs, they're not even prepared to get us equal treatment.
May 2015 election could be decided by 3 million young voters who are optimistic, tolerant and heavily favour Labour
They are pro-European, socially liberal, regard unemployment and poverty as more important issues than race relations or immigration, and the vast majority are regular users of social media.
There are more than 3 million young people in their generation, now aged 17 to 22, who will have a first chance to vote in a UK general election next May and who could, potentially, decide its outcome.
According to a wide-ranging survey of their views by Opinium for the Observer, they are broadly optimistic about the jobs market – even outside south-east England – and most say that unpaid internships are a good thing if they help young people into permanent employment.
Politically, Labour has a 15-point lead (by 41% to 26%) over the Conservatives among these first-time voters, who shun Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage.
More than three times as many of them – 19% – support the Greens as back the Liberal Democrats (6%), demonstrating how Nick Clegg’s party has lost the young and student vote since the high point of “Cleggmania” in 2010. Just 3% back Ukip.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/first-time-voters-eu-2015-election-farage-labour
That's the demographic that histortically has the lowest turnout in elections
New voters are pro-EU and pro-immigration, but mostly concerned about employment and feel they won't be able to live on their own for a long time. Obviously the penny hasn't dropped yet that the biggest cause of unemployment is the Eurozone fiasco and the biggest cause of high house prices is immigration-driven population increases.
A classic example of why we shouldn't drop the voting age further.
Finsbury Park was in utter chaos today. Read that on Telegraph ....lovely picture provided of travellers outside FP queuing very patiently saying " gosh this happens rarely we should be proud of our glorious railway systems" .... Err NOT.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/11314389/Finsbury-Park-station-chaos-after-Network-Rail-closes-Kings-Cross.html
Anyone got a list of constituencies with lots of students in them?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-named-briton-of-the-year-by-the-times-9946110.html
Oooooo......
If none of the suggestions work, try going here
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/categories/general
01 Sheffield Central - 38.1%
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-31c9-Labour-trumps-Ukips-West-Thurrock-bid/#.VJ8noeADA
Because it feels me to the brim with girlish glee
New fraud claims hit Indyref
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55HsT6IIAA4zdi.jpg:large
People listen to me': Glamour model-turned-bodybuilder Jodie Marsh says she'll 'start her own party' to become an MP
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2888120/Jodie-Marsh-says-ll-start-party-MP.html
2015 general election could be the most unpredictable vote in living memory
Rise of Green party and Ukip and the Facebook generation’s growing influence have killed the old order and all bets are off
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/2015-general-election-unpredictable-green-party-ukip
I was in Nottingham South in 2010, not the type of students to vote Labour or Green.
From the Sunday Times
AL-QAEDA has issued instructions to aspiring “lone wolf” jihadists on how to carry out bomb attacks on commercial airliners, and urged them to hit easyjet or BA
11 Bristol West - 24.3%
12= Portsmouth South - 24.2%
12= Coventry South - 24.2%
14 Canterbury - 24%
15 Birmingham Ladywood - 23.3%
16 Bath - 22.4%
17 Birmingham Selly Oak - 22.2%
18 Lancaster & Fleetwood - 21.7%
19 Nottingham East - 21.2%
20 Loughborough - 20.8%
21 Holborn & St Pancras - 20.6%
22 City of Durham - 20.5%
23 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport -20.2%
24 Manchester Withington - 20.1%
http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/VERY-FINAL-CLEAN-PDF.pdf
https://twitter.com/STJamesl/status/548958812791926785
I think one should be involved in society if one expects a say in what goes on. That's why I disagree so strongly with the Liberal policy of taking lower paid people out of income tax. The very people who now pay nothing take it for granted but still get to vote to raise taxes for others.
Non-payers of income tax should not have the vote (which would take me off the UK electoral roll, as it happens). Or property taxes, which would keep me on the UK roll.
Many thanks to (OGH?) for tipping it a few years ago
Bath stands out as somewhere not to back the Lib Dems.
Portsmouth South could be the messiest fight at the next election.
Revealed: 'Out of touch' Ed Miliband was barred from appearing at final rally against Scottish independence
Labour leader was blocked from speaking in major event because pro-UK campaign feared his 'north London intellectual' image would put off voters, The Telegraph learns
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11311537/Revealed-Out-of-touch-Ed-Miliband-was-barred-from-appearing-at-final-rally-against-Scottish-independence.html
Thanks TSE I am on Safari. Will try to get on chrome and see how that works.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg
The investigation is still ongoing
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/16/referendum-rules-electoral-commission
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Winston_Churchill#Misattributed
First-time voters: Who do you trust more to run the economy?
Cameron & Osborne 28%
Miliband & Balls 19%
Clegg & Cable 5%
None of these 29%
Four months to change the face of Britain.
The young have to learn the hard way I guess.
(Anyone but Labour)
If UKIP were a cocker spaniel on heat they would always tend to hump the left rather than the right leg
:-)
Changing the subject, TCPolBet has a go at an MP for not living in the constituency. Do people think this matters much (especially in London where constituencies are densely packed), so long as they're available? I mostly lived in Broxtowe but moved to Nottingham in the last few years as my wife, who doesn't drive, found where we were (a village on a lone bus route) too isolated. By coincidence, we moved to live opposite Anna Soubry, who promised to move to the constituency if elected. She did, but only very recently.
Personally I take the view that I'm available more or less 16*7 every week, and where I sleep is largely irrelevant. I never met a constituent who objected (and I've never used it against AS).
I can assert with some confidence that 19% of this age cohort won't be voting Green, 20 years from now. Nor will they be voting for left wing parties by a margin of 60/29%.
My MP has not lived in Hertsmere (South Herts) as long as I have been alive.
I suggest the same holds good for MPs and their constituencies. Hence, being close to your area is fundamental really. MPs need to be seen to stand with the people that elected them. Doing so from some nice part of the country does not quite cut the mustard. (with certain exceptions of course where red roses apply.)
The 10-15 miles that you live outside Broxtowe shouldn't impact your understanding, so isn't a concern. Equally, I wouldn't be worried about a Kensington MP living in, say, Chelsea or Fulham (although Edinburgh is a little far for my taste). The only place in London I guess it could make a real difference is if an MP under a flight path lived somewhere different.
The issue is much more pronounced where you have London-centric MPs parachuted into, say, Sheffield or Doncaster, or perhaps Clacton. (I'm sure there are Tory examples as well, but none really come to mind!
It is something that does have a noticeable effect on the way they view welfare and tax issues and on the answerability of the state (or the Suprastate) to their concerns. For anyone with any sense, idealism is necessarily mitigated by reality once they start working for a living.