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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON, LD and GRN seats that LAB would hope to win to offset projected 38 losses to the SNP in Scotland

If LAB does lose 38 Scots seats to SNP then these are top 38 English targets that they'd try to use to offset them pic.twitter.com/ccNddVWWlK

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Hertsmere_Pubgoer

1st?

HYUFD

They would obviously need significantly more if they were to win a majority and avoid the need for SNP support

AlastairMeeks

Some of these look easier than others.

Sean_F

If there are big losses to the SNP (and maybe here and there to UKIP), then Labour would have to be looking to regain seats like Gillingham, Rochester, Battersea, Monmouth, to win a majority.

Labour should be currently favourites in these 38, apart from Thurrock, Brighton Pavilion, and Stockton South.

TCPoliticalBetting

30th on the list is Enfield North. Labour have reselected the infamous expenses queen Joan Ryan. What a candidate! She does not even live in the constituency.
"In October 2007, the Evening Standard reported that Joan Ryan claimed £173,691 in expenses for the 2006/2007 tax year, the highest for any MP. She was the second highest claimant in the 2005/2006 tax year.
In May 2009, it was reported that Ryan had claimed more than £4,500 under the Additional Costs Allowance for work on a house she had designated as her second home.[6] In February 2010, based on an audit report looking into the United Kingdom parliamentary expenses scandal, Ryan was asked to repay £5,121 mortgage interest."
The local Labour Chairman Viki Pite said that she was "disappointed with the selection" as she felt a "fresh start" was needed.

MikeK

Have the Con seats all gone to UKIP? It would appear so by their colour.

Artist

The only reward for Labour if they managed to offset 38 SNP losses would be to deny the Tories the numbers to have any chance of forming a government, rather than any possibility of taking power themselves. We'd have a Tory minority government who pretty much wouldn't be able to pass anything before a second election later in the year.

Danny565

Sean_F said:

If there are big losses to the SNP (and maybe here and there to UKIP), then Labour would have to be looking to regain seats like Gillingham, Rochester, Battersea, Monmouth, to win a majority.

Labour should be currently favourites in these 38, apart from Thurrock, Brighton Pavilion, and Stockton South.

Why not Stockton South?

Sean_F

TCPoliticalBetting said:

30th on the list is Enfield North. Labour have reselected the infamous expenses queen Joan Ryan. What a candidate! She does not even live in the constituency.
"In October 2007, the Evening Standard reported that Joan Ryan claimed £173,691 in expenses for the 2006/2007 tax year, the highest for any MP. She was the second highest claimant in the 2005/2006 tax year.
In May 2009, it was reported that Ryan had claimed more than £4,500 under the Additional Costs Allowance for work on a house she had designated as her second home.[6] In February 2010, based on an audit report looking into the United Kingdom parliamentary expenses scandal, Ryan was asked to repay £5,121 mortgage interest."
The local Labour Chairman Viki Pite said that she was "disappointed with the selection" as she felt a "fresh start" was needed.

Unfortunately, this part of London is shifting rapidly to Labour.

Sean_F

Danny565 said:

Sean_F said:

If there are big losses to the SNP (and maybe here and there to UKIP), then Labour would have to be looking to regain seats like Gillingham, Rochester, Battersea, Monmouth, to win a majority.

Labour should be currently favourites in these 38, apart from Thurrock, Brighton Pavilion, and Stockton South.

Why not Stockton South?

Two Ashcroft polls have the parties neck and neck, despite a big UKIP vote.

IIRC, Ashcroft also has the Conservatives ahead in Pudsey, too.

PClipp

I don´t think that Cardiff North is currently a Lib Dem seat. Another two points down for the Tories.

AlastairMeeks

Our host in his tweet to Luke Akehurst overlooks any gains the Conservatives may make from the Lib Dems.

DavidL

Surely on anything like current polling all of the seats in this chart are a walk in the park for Labour?

At the moment they have somewhere around a 5% swing in their favour in England from 2010, more than double the hardest of these targets. There may always been special or local factors but if all of these seats are not turning red in May then JackW may prove to have been right after all.

Sean_F

DavidL said:

Surely on anything like current polling all of the seats in this chart are a walk in the park for Labour?

At the moment they have somewhere around a 5% swing in their favour in England from 2010, more than double the hardest of these targets. There may always been special or local factors but if all of these seats are not turning red in May then JackW may prove to have been right after all.

Thurrock won't be a walk in the park for Labour; nor Brighton Pavilion. Nor (if Ashcroft is right) Stockton South and Pudsey.

Sunil_Prasannan

Wonder if they ran any trains from Finsbury Park into Moorgate today (the line usually opens weekdays only up to 10pm or so).

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Wonder if they ran any trains from Finsbury Park into Moorgate today (the line usually opens weekdays only up to 10pm or so).

I'd be surprised as it is only really for commuters.

Moses_

Don't know about anyone else but I am having serious issues with even getting logged onto PB let alone posting. The vanilla chops off comments without loading, there is a double PolBett header one a few posts below the other and the top few posts text runs across the history and links list on the right side. I have only managed to get ton his point by changing my password started this morning.

I am on an I pad and have not had issues previously.... Anyone else have an issue or is it my IPad that's causing the problem?

While here I also look at the Telegraph website but can never load comments as disqus just goes round and round before stating the obvious that it's taking longer than usual .....reload? Try that and just the same

Anyone any ideas?

DavidL

Moses_ said:

Don't know about anyone else but I am having serious issues with even getting logged onto PB let alone posting. The vanilla chops off comments without loading, there is a double PolBett header one a few posts below the other and the top few posts text runs across the history and links list on the right side. I have only managed to get ton his point by changing my password started this morning.

I am on an I pad and have not had issues previously.... Anyone else have an issue or is it my IPad that's causing the problem?

While here I also look at the Telegraph website but can never load comments as disqus just goes round and round before stating the obvious that it's taking longer than usual .....reload? Try that and just the same

Anyone any ideas?

Stop reading the Telegraph?

Moses_

Just posted the below and now I can only see my post no other posts??

Mmmmmm.....

Moses_

DavidL said:

Moses_ said:

Don't know about anyone else but I am having serious issues with even getting logged onto PB let alone posting. The vanilla chops off comments without loading, there is a double PolBett header one a few posts below the other and the top few posts text runs across the history and links list on the right side. I have only managed to get ton his point by changing my password started this morning.

I am on an I pad and have not had issues previously.... Anyone else have an issue or is it my IPad that's causing the problem?

While here I also look at the Telegraph website but can never load comments as disqus just goes round and round before stating the obvious that it's taking longer than usual .....reload? Try that and just the same

Anyone any ideas?

Stop reading the Telegraph?

Ha! Thanks

Not helpful ...the issue is becoming more than annoying now.

Socrates

This is an interesting piece on the upward revisions to British GDP via including black market activity:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/12/26/373278922/illegal-sex-and-drugs-pays-off-for-britain

Eric Dubois, director of France's statistics office, the INSEE, told the Telegraph newspaper that such commercial activities were not voluntary, and therefore it will not comply with the new EU rules. He said that prostitution was the result of "Mafia networks and trafficking illegal immigrants."

So that change in EU accounting rules which means the UK has a bigger GDP and hence has to pay billions more to the EU budget? Well France is just ignoring it.

Sunil_Prasannan

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Wonder if they ran any trains from Finsbury Park into Moorgate today (the line usually opens weekdays only up to 10pm or so).

I'd be surprised as it is only really for commuters.

True but would have provided some kind of relief to KX.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Socrates said:

This is an interesting piece on the upward revisions to British GDP via including black market activity:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/12/26/373278922/illegal-sex-and-drugs-pays-off-for-britain

Eric Dubois, director of France's statistics office, the INSEE, told the Telegraph newspaper that such commercial activities were not voluntary, and therefore it will not comply with the new EU rules. He said that prostitution was the result of "Mafia networks and trafficking illegal immigrants."

So that change in EU accounting rules which means the UK has a bigger GDP and hence has to pay billions more to the EU budget? Well France is just ignoring it.

The French are well known for ignoring things from the EU that they find inconvenient.
It just makes it more annoying why we are so spineless and gold plate everything that comes out of Brussels.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Wonder if they ran any trains from Finsbury Park into Moorgate today (the line usually opens weekdays only up to 10pm or so).

I'd be surprised as it is only really for commuters.

True but would have provided some kind of relief to KX.

I was planning to take a trip up to London today, glad I didn't.
Instead I endured the misery of Potters Bar Town FC going down 3-1 to Northwood.

DavidL

Moses_ said:

DavidL said:

Moses_ said:

Don't know about anyone else but I am having serious issues with even getting logged onto PB let alone posting. The vanilla chops off comments without loading, there is a double PolBett header one a few posts below the other and the top few posts text runs across the history and links list on the right side. I have only managed to get ton his point by changing my password started this morning.

I am on an I pad and have not had issues previously.... Anyone else have an issue or is it my IPad that's causing the problem?

While here I also look at the Telegraph website but can never load comments as disqus just goes round and round before stating the obvious that it's taking longer than usual .....reload? Try that and just the same

Anyone any ideas?

Stop reading the Telegraph?

Ha! Thanks

Not helpful ...the issue is becoming more than annoying now.

TBH I have had similar problems with disqus on the Telegraph site for months. I am really glad that we don't have that dreadful system on PB anymore.

I sometimes have problems on PB with my iphone but that is because it is an annoying piece of junk brilliantly designed to bring down western civilisation and to drive us all insane.

DecrepitJohnL

Socrates said:

This is an interesting piece on the upward revisions to British GDP via including black market activity:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/12/26/373278922/illegal-sex-and-drugs-pays-off-for-britain

Eric Dubois, director of France's statistics office, the INSEE, told the Telegraph newspaper that such commercial activities were not voluntary, and therefore it will not comply with the new EU rules. He said that prostitution was the result of "Mafia networks and trafficking illegal immigrants."

So that change in EU accounting rules which means the UK has a bigger GDP and hence has to pay billions more to the EU budget? Well France is just ignoring it.

Precisely. On the other hand, there is an election fast approaching so boosting the tractor stats is a priority, and overtaking the French a bonus because for some unfathomable reason, the Conservative Party believes the Ed = Hollande meme flies.

Freggles

I use the Chrome app on an iPad and Android phone, on iPad comments often stray into the links on the side but commenting works ok.
In both cases I often get a site-within-a-site when first logging in, but refreshing solves that

Sunil_Prasannan

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Wonder if they ran any trains from Finsbury Park into Moorgate today (the line usually opens weekdays only up to 10pm or so).

I'd be surprised as it is only really for commuters.

True but would have provided some kind of relief to KX.

I was planning to take a trip up to London today, glad I didn't.
Instead I endured the misery of Potters Bar Town FC going down 3-1 to Northwood.

Commiserations! Hammers went down to Chelsea yesterday

welshowl

PClipp said:

I don´t think that Cardiff North is currently a Lib Dem seat. Another two points down for the Tories.

Cardiff North is Tory ( by about 100 only ), Cardiff Central is Lib Dem but Labour are making a big push and must be favourites.

Socrates

DecrepitJohnL said:

Socrates said:

This is an interesting piece on the upward revisions to British GDP via including black market activity:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/12/26/373278922/illegal-sex-and-drugs-pays-off-for-britain

Eric Dubois, director of France's statistics office, the INSEE, told the Telegraph newspaper that such commercial activities were not voluntary, and therefore it will not comply with the new EU rules. He said that prostitution was the result of "Mafia networks and trafficking illegal immigrants."

So that change in EU accounting rules which means the UK has a bigger GDP and hence has to pay billions more to the EU budget? Well France is just ignoring it.

Precisely. On the other hand, there is an election fast approaching so boosting the tractor stats is a priority, and overtaking the French a bonus because for some unfathomable reason, the Conservative Party believes the Ed = Hollande meme flies.

We did what we were told by the EU, while France puts two fingers up to them. The result is that Cameron forks over huge amounts of taxpayer money to Brussels, and we still get called obstructive bad Europeans. The French keep their money, yet also get prize influence at the centre, calling the shots on trade negotiations and getting to agree a fixed position with Germany before every summit.

The EU is designed to screw us over at every possible concern. We can't win. We just get exploited and exploited over and over again. The spineless David Cameron came into office promising to change this situation, but every time he has made a stand he's later backed down. A pathetic, weak Prime Minister.

For those on the left who like the UK to be subservient to Brussels, this is a good situation. But those on the right need to decide whether they are happy to put up with a framework where we get milked again and again while the French get off scot-free. People need to get off the fence and work out whose side are they on: Britain's or the EU's?

Socrates

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

The French are well known for ignoring things from the EU that they find inconvenient.
It just makes it more annoying why we are so spineless and gold plate everything that comes out of Brussels.

Why aren't we just refusing to hand over the money until France coughs up?

Our government is so weak that not only have they given up arguing for opt-outs, they're not even prepared to get us equal treatment.

TheScreamingEagles

Britain’s first-time voters: pro-EU, socially liberal – and no fans of Farage

May 2015 election could be decided by 3 million young voters who are optimistic, tolerant and heavily favour Labour

They are pro-European, socially liberal, regard unemployment and poverty as more important issues than race relations or immigration, and the vast majority are regular users of social media.

There are more than 3 million young people in their generation, now aged 17 to 22, who will have a first chance to vote in a UK general election next May and who could, potentially, decide its outcome.

According to a wide-ranging survey of their views by Opinium for the Observer, they are broadly optimistic about the jobs market – even outside south-east England – and most say that unpaid internships are a good thing if they help young people into permanent employment.

Politically, Labour has a 15-point lead (by 41% to 26%) over the Conservatives among these first-time voters, who shun Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage.

More than three times as many of them – 19% – support the Greens as back the Liberal Democrats (6%), demonstrating how Nick Clegg’s party has lost the young and student vote since the high point of “Cleggmania” in 2010. Just 3% back Ukip.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/first-time-voters-eu-2015-election-farage-labour

TheScreamingEagles

Re the previous post about opinium.

That's the demographic that histortically has the lowest turnout in elections

Easterross

Evening all and it will be interesting to see in how few of these seats Labour remains in the lead come the next set of Ashcroft marginal polls.

Socrates

@TSE

New voters are pro-EU and pro-immigration, but mostly concerned about employment and feel they won't be able to live on their own for a long time. Obviously the penny hasn't dropped yet that the biggest cause of unemployment is the Eurozone fiasco and the biggest cause of high house prices is immigration-driven population increases.

A classic example of why we shouldn't drop the voting age further.

Moses_

Thanks for the responses. Seems to be better now on PB did a refresh multiple times ...... Grrrr IT


Finsbury Park was in utter chaos today. Read that on Telegraph ....lovely picture provided of travellers outside FP queuing very patiently saying " gosh this happens rarely we should be proud of our glorious railway systems" .... Err NOT.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/11314389/Finsbury-Park-station-chaos-after-Network-Rail-closes-Kings-Cross.html

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain’s first-time voters: pro-EU, socially liberal – and no fans of Farage

May 2015 election could be decided by 3 million young voters who are optimistic, tolerant and heavily favour Labour

They are pro-European, socially liberal, regard unemployment and poverty as more important issues than race relations or immigration, and the vast majority are regular users of social media.

There are more than 3 million young people in their generation, now aged 17 to 22, who will have a first chance to vote in a UK general election next May and who could, potentially, decide its outcome.

According to a wide-ranging survey of their views by Opinium for the Observer, they are broadly optimistic about the jobs market – even outside south-east England – and most say that unpaid internships are a good thing if they help young people into permanent employment.

Politically, Labour has a 15-point lead (by 41% to 26%) over the Conservatives among these first-time voters, who shun Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage.

More than three times as many of them – 19% – support the Greens as back the Liberal Democrats (6%), demonstrating how Nick Clegg’s party has lost the young and student vote since the high point of “Cleggmania” in 2010. Just 3% back Ukip.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/first-time-voters-eu-2015-election-farage-labour

Those student constituencies look good for the Greens and bad for the Lib Dems.

AlastairMeeks

Socrates said:

@TSE

New voters are pro-EU and pro-immigration, but mostly concerned about employment and feel they won't be able to live on their own for a long time. Obviously the penny hasn't dropped yet that the biggest cause of unemployment is the Eurozone fiasco and the biggest cause of high house prices is immigration-driven population increases.

A classic example of why we shouldn't drop the voting age further.

So you only approve of allowing the vote to those who share your views? How democratic.

TheScreamingEagles

Socrates said:

@TSE

New voters are pro-EU and pro-immigration, but mostly concerned about employment and feel they won't be able to live on their own for a long time. Obviously the penny hasn't dropped yet that the biggest cause of unemployment is the Eurozone fiasco and the biggest cause of high house prices is immigration-driven population increases.

A classic example of why we shouldn't drop the voting age further.

You're going to need a better argument to deny them the vote than they don't share your viewpoint, and I'm someone who a few month ago wasn't keen on giving the vote to the 16 and 17 year olds

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain’s first-time voters: pro-EU, socially liberal – and no fans of Farage

May 2015 election could be decided by 3 million young voters who are optimistic, tolerant and heavily favour Labour

They are pro-European, socially liberal, regard unemployment and poverty as more important issues than race relations or immigration, and the vast majority are regular users of social media.

There are more than 3 million young people in their generation, now aged 17 to 22, who will have a first chance to vote in a UK general election next May and who could, potentially, decide its outcome.

According to a wide-ranging survey of their views by Opinium for the Observer, they are broadly optimistic about the jobs market – even outside south-east England – and most say that unpaid internships are a good thing if they help young people into permanent employment.

Politically, Labour has a 15-point lead (by 41% to 26%) over the Conservatives among these first-time voters, who shun Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage.

More than three times as many of them – 19% – support the Greens as back the Liberal Democrats (6%), demonstrating how Nick Clegg’s party has lost the young and student vote since the high point of “Cleggmania” in 2010. Just 3% back Ukip.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/first-time-voters-eu-2015-election-farage-labour

Those student constituencies look good for the Greens and bad for the Lib Dems.

It does.

Anyone got a list of constituencies with lots of students in them?

Moses_

Not sure if posted already

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-named-briton-of-the-year-by-the-times-9946110.html

Oooooo......

TheScreamingEagles

Moses_ said:

Thanks for the responses. Seems to be better now on PB did a refresh multiple times ...... Grrrr IT


Finsbury Park was in utter chaos today. Read that on Telegraph ....lovely picture provided of travellers outside FP queuing very patiently saying " gosh this happens rarely we should be proud of our glorious railway systems" .... Err NOT.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/11314389/Finsbury-Park-station-chaos-after-Network-Rail-closes-Kings-Cross.html

Using chrome is the way to go, as Safari sucks.

If none of the suggestions work, try going here

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/categories/general

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain’s first-time voters: pro-EU, socially liberal – and no fans of Farage

May 2015 election could be decided by 3 million young voters who are optimistic, tolerant and heavily favour Labour

They are pro-European, socially liberal, regard unemployment and poverty as more important issues than race relations or immigration, and the vast majority are regular users of social media.

There are more than 3 million young people in their generation, now aged 17 to 22, who will have a first chance to vote in a UK general election next May and who could, potentially, decide its outcome.

According to a wide-ranging survey of their views by Opinium for the Observer, they are broadly optimistic about the jobs market – even outside south-east England – and most say that unpaid internships are a good thing if they help young people into permanent employment.

Politically, Labour has a 15-point lead (by 41% to 26%) over the Conservatives among these first-time voters, who shun Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage.

More than three times as many of them – 19% – support the Greens as back the Liberal Democrats (6%), demonstrating how Nick Clegg’s party has lost the young and student vote since the high point of “Cleggmania” in 2010. Just 3% back Ukip.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/first-time-voters-eu-2015-election-farage-labour

Yep and just like Cleggmania a large majority of those votes will simply evaporate come election day as those first time voters are too lazy to actually walk a few hundred yards to the polling booth and put an X in a box.

surbiton

DavidL said:

Surely on anything like current polling all of the seats in this chart are a walk in the park for Labour?

At the moment they have somewhere around a 5% swing in their favour in England from 2010, more than double the hardest of these targets. There may always been special or local factors but if all of these seats are not turning red in May then JackW may prove to have been right after all.

It always turns out like that. Sometimes easier ones do not fall but more difficult ones do. That's why we use UNS as the "average".

Richard_Tyndall

Moses_ said:

Not sure if posted already

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-named-briton-of-the-year-by-the-times-9946110.html

Oooooo......

I don't think the decision is correct but I am loving the way it is pissing off so many of the left wing commentators.

Danny565

These are the constituencies with the highest proportion of students:

01 Sheffield Central - 38.1%
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%

surbiton

What is it about this Thurrock poll which says Labour cannot win it ? Labour did get 20k votes there last time. It cannot be a certainty that it will go UKIP.

http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-31c9-Labour-trumps-Ukips-West-Thurrock-bid/#.VJ8noeADA

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

@TSE

New voters are pro-EU and pro-immigration, but mostly concerned about employment and feel they won't be able to live on their own for a long time. Obviously the penny hasn't dropped yet that the biggest cause of unemployment is the Eurozone fiasco and the biggest cause of high house prices is immigration-driven population increases.

A classic example of why we shouldn't drop the voting age further.

You're going to need a better argument to deny them the vote than they don't share your viewpoint, and I'm someone who a few month ago wasn't keen on giving the vote to the 16 and 17 year olds

His comment was not that they didn't share his viewpoint but that their own viewpoint was illogical and frankly infantile. For the very reasons he gave.

TheScreamingEagles

Does this mean we have to rerun the indyref?

Because it feels me to the brim with girlish glee

New fraud claims hit Indyref

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55HsT6IIAA4zdi.jpg:large

TheScreamingEagles

Danny565 said:

These are the constituencies with the highest proportion of students:

01 Sheffield Central - 38.1%
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%

Thank You.

TheScreamingEagles

She'll be the Popular Front candidate.

People listen to me': Glamour model-turned-bodybuilder Jodie Marsh says she'll 'start her own party' to become an MP

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2888120/Jodie-Marsh-says-ll-start-party-MP.html

TheScreamingEagles

I agree

2015 general election could be the most unpredictable vote in living memory

Rise of Green party and Ukip and the Facebook generation’s growing influence have killed the old order and all bets are off

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/2015-general-election-unpredictable-green-party-ukip

Socrates

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

@TSE

New voters are pro-EU and pro-immigration, but mostly concerned about employment and feel they won't be able to live on their own for a long time. Obviously the penny hasn't dropped yet that the biggest cause of unemployment is the Eurozone fiasco and the biggest cause of high house prices is immigration-driven population increases.

A classic example of why we shouldn't drop the voting age further.

You're going to need a better argument to deny them the vote than they don't share your viewpoint, and I'm someone who a few month ago wasn't keen on giving the vote to the 16 and 17 year olds

Except that wasn't my argument. My argument was that their own views were not consistent. It would be like wanting taxes cut yet supporting higher welfare spending. Unsurprisingly, young people, who have done a lot of theoretical study but don't have much practical experience of life yet, are very utopian in their views.

surbiton

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain’s first-time voters: pro-EU, socially liberal – and no fans of Farage

May 2015 election could be decided by 3 million young voters who are optimistic, tolerant and heavily favour Labour

They are pro-European, socially liberal, regard unemployment and poverty as more important issues than race relations or immigration, and the vast majority are regular users of social media.

There are more than 3 million young people in their generation, now aged 17 to 22, who will have a first chance to vote in a UK general election next May and who could, potentially, decide its outcome.

According to a wide-ranging survey of their views by Opinium for the Observer, they are broadly optimistic about the jobs market – even outside south-east England – and most say that unpaid internships are a good thing if they help young people into permanent employment.

Politically, Labour has a 15-point lead (by 41% to 26%) over the Conservatives among these first-time voters, who shun Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage.

More than three times as many of them – 19% – support the Greens as back the Liberal Democrats (6%), demonstrating how Nick Clegg’s party has lost the young and student vote since the high point of “Cleggmania” in 2010. Just 3% back Ukip.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/first-time-voters-eu-2015-election-farage-labour

Yep and just like Cleggmania a large majority of those votes will simply evaporate come election day as those first time voters are too lazy to actually walk a few hundred yards to the polling booth and put an X in a box.

They will vote in a referendum though just like they di din Scotland.

TheScreamingEagles

David Laws in the Sunday Times says Osborne's cuts are the electoral equivalent of Michael Foot's suicide note.

Artist

Danny565 said:

These are the constituencies with the highest proportion of students:

01 Sheffield Central - 38.1%
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%

Nearly all Labour already then. It'd be interesting to see a poll in Leeds NW.

I was in Nottingham South in 2010, not the type of students to vote Labour or Green.

TheScreamingEagles

Another reason not to fly easyjet or BA.

From the Sunday Times

AL-QAEDA has issued instructions to aspiring “lone wolf” jihadists on how to carry out bomb attacks on commercial airliners, and urged them to hit easyjet or BA

Danny565

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

These are the constituencies with the highest proportion of students:

01 Sheffield Central - 38.1%
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%

Thank You.

All others with over 20% students:

11 Bristol West - 24.3%
12= Portsmouth South - 24.2%
12= Coventry South - 24.2%
14 Canterbury - 24%
15 Birmingham Ladywood - 23.3%
16 Bath - 22.4%
17 Birmingham Selly Oak - 22.2%
18 Lancaster & Fleetwood - 21.7%
19 Nottingham East - 21.2%
20 Loughborough - 20.8%
21 Holborn & St Pancras - 20.6%
22 City of Durham - 20.5%
23 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport -20.2%
24 Manchester Withington - 20.1%

http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/VERY-FINAL-CLEAN-PDF.pdf

TheScreamingEagles

On topic

https://twitter.com/STJamesl/status/548958812791926785

GeoffM

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

@TSE

New voters are pro-EU and pro-immigration, but mostly concerned about employment and feel they won't be able to live on their own for a long time. Obviously the penny hasn't dropped yet that the biggest cause of unemployment is the Eurozone fiasco and the biggest cause of high house prices is immigration-driven population increases.

A classic example of why we shouldn't drop the voting age further.

You're going to need a better argument to deny them the vote than they don't share your viewpoint, and I'm someone who a few month ago wasn't keen on giving the vote to the 16 and 17 year olds

His comment was not that they didn't share his viewpoint but that their own viewpoint was illogical and frankly infantile. For the very reasons he gave.

Indeed. And they also seem particularly lazy and disinclined to work for a living "and feel they won't be able to live on their own for a long time."

I think one should be involved in society if one expects a say in what goes on. That's why I disagree so strongly with the Liberal policy of taking lower paid people out of income tax. The very people who now pay nothing take it for granted but still get to vote to raise taxes for others.

Non-payers of income tax should not have the vote (which would take me off the UK electoral roll, as it happens). Or property taxes, which would keep me on the UK roll.

surbiton

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Laws in the Sunday Times says Osborne's cuts are the electoral equivalent of Michael Foot's suicide note.

First Danny Boy, now Laws. It is called rowing back. Too late !

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

William Hill have paid out on the date of GE bet to be 2015.
Many thanks to (OGH?) for tipping it a few years ago

AlastairMeeks

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

These are the constituencies with the highest proportion of students:

01 Sheffield Central - 38.1%
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%

Thank You.

All others with over 20% students:

11 Bristol West - 24.3%
12= Portsmouth South - 24.2%
12= Coventry South - 24.2%
14 Canterbury - 24%
15 Birmingham Ladywood - 23.3%
16 Bath - 22.4%
17 Birmingham Selly Oak - 22.2%
18 Lancaster & Fleetwood - 21.7%
19 Nottingham East - 21.2%
20 Loughborough - 20.8%
21 Holborn & St Pancras - 20.6%
22 City of Durham - 20.5%
23 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport -20.2%
24 Manchester Withington - 20.1%

http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/VERY-FINAL-CLEAN-PDF.pdf

Fantastic. Much appreciated.

TheScreamingEagles

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

These are the constituencies with the highest proportion of students:

01 Sheffield Central - 38.1%
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%

Thank You.

All others with over 20% students:

11 Bristol West - 24.3%
12= Portsmouth South - 24.2%
12= Coventry South - 24.2%
14 Canterbury - 24%
15 Birmingham Ladywood - 23.3%
16 Bath - 22.4%
17 Birmingham Selly Oak - 22.2%
18 Lancaster & Fleetwood - 21.7%
19 Nottingham East - 21.2%
20 Loughborough - 20.8%
21 Holborn & St Pancras - 20.6%
22 City of Durham - 20.5%
23 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport -20.2%
24 Manchester Withington - 20.1%

http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/VERY-FINAL-CLEAN-PDF.pdf

Again thank you.

Bath stands out as somewhere not to back the Lib Dems.

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

These are the constituencies with the highest proportion of students:

01 Sheffield Central - 38.1%
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%

Thank You.

All others with over 20% students:

11 Bristol West - 24.3%
12= Portsmouth South - 24.2%
12= Coventry South - 24.2%
14 Canterbury - 24%
15 Birmingham Ladywood - 23.3%
16 Bath - 22.4%
17 Birmingham Selly Oak - 22.2%
18 Lancaster & Fleetwood - 21.7%
19 Nottingham East - 21.2%
20 Loughborough - 20.8%
21 Holborn & St Pancras - 20.6%
22 City of Durham - 20.5%
23 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport -20.2%
24 Manchester Withington - 20.1%

http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/VERY-FINAL-CLEAN-PDF.pdf

Again thank you.

Bath stands out as somewhere not to back the Lib Dems.

I'm not sure Bath students are typical. Portsmouth South is the surprise for me.

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

These are the constituencies with the highest proportion of students:

01 Sheffield Central - 38.1%
02 Nottingham South - 34.5%
03 Liverpool Riverside - 30.9%
04 Manchester Central - 29.1%
05 Leeds North West - 28.6%
06 Oxford East - 27.7%
07 Cambridge - 27.5%
08 Manchester Gorton - 26.3%
09 Leeds Central - 24.9%
10 Leicester South - 24.8%

Thank You.

All others with over 20% students:

11 Bristol West - 24.3%
12= Portsmouth South - 24.2%
12= Coventry South - 24.2%
14 Canterbury - 24%
15 Birmingham Ladywood - 23.3%
16 Bath - 22.4%
17 Birmingham Selly Oak - 22.2%
18 Lancaster & Fleetwood - 21.7%
19 Nottingham East - 21.2%
20 Loughborough - 20.8%
21 Holborn & St Pancras - 20.6%
22 City of Durham - 20.5%
23 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport -20.2%
24 Manchester Withington - 20.1%

http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/VERY-FINAL-CLEAN-PDF.pdf

Again thank you.

Bath stands out as somewhere not to back the Lib Dems.

I'm not sure Bath students are typical. Portsmouth South is the surprise for me.

With Don Foster standing down the Lib Dems could suffer a double whammy with no incumbency and the students revolting.

Portsmouth South could be the messiest fight at the next election.

Danny565

antifrank said:

I'm not sure Bath students are typical. Portsmouth South is the surprise for me.

Portsmouth S for me is quite possibly one of the most interesting seats of all. The Lib Dems might be quite damaged by the Mike Hancock saga. It seems like quite fertile territory for UKIP as a coastal town, while also fertile for the Greens because of the students. Then Tories and Labour have decent-ish bases there. Throw in the possibility of Hancock standing as an independent and we have a potential 6-way marginal.

TheScreamingEagles

Fascinating

Revealed: 'Out of touch' Ed Miliband was barred from appearing at final rally against Scottish independence

Labour leader was blocked from speaking in major event because pro-UK campaign feared his 'north London intellectual' image would put off voters, The Telegraph learns

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11311537/Revealed-Out-of-touch-Ed-Miliband-was-barred-from-appearing-at-final-rally-against-Scottish-independence.html

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Laws in the Sunday Times says Osborne's cuts are the electoral equivalent of Michael Foot's suicide note.

First Danny Boy, now Laws. It is called rowing back. Too late !

Did Danny Boy receive a call from Broadsword?

AlastairMeeks

I now see Portsmouth South as a reasonably straightforward Conservative win. UKIP weren't at the races in the recent opinion poll, the Conservatives had a decent lead and the Lib Dems have no incumbency advantage. Chalk one to the blues.

TheScreamingEagles

Seriously, Ed Miliband must have hit rock bottom when he is told by Gordon Brown that he is unpopular and a vote loser

Carnyx

TheScreamingEagles said:

Does this mean we have to rerun the indyref?

Because it feels me to the brim with girlish glee

New fraud claims hit Indyref

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55HsT6IIAA4zdi.jpg:large

And we haven't, presumably, heard the last of the scandal of early postal voting counting affecting Labour and the Tories.

Moses_

TheScreamingEagles said:

Moses_ said:

Thanks for the responses. Seems to be better now on PB did a refresh multiple times ...... Grrrr IT


Finsbury Park was in utter chaos today. Read that on Telegraph ....lovely picture provided of travellers outside FP queuing very patiently saying " gosh this happens rarely we should be proud of our glorious railway systems" .... Err NOT.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/11314389/Finsbury-Park-station-chaos-after-Network-Rail-closes-Kings-Cross.html

Using chrome is the way to go, as Safari sucks.

If none of the suggestions work, try going here

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/categories/general

Thanks TSE I am on Safari. Will try to get on chrome and see how that works.

AlastairMeeks

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Does this mean we have to rerun the indyref?

Because it feels me to the brim with girlish glee

New fraud claims hit Indyref

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55HsT6IIAA4zdi.jpg:large

And we haven't, presumably, heard the last of the scandal of early postal voting counting affecting Labour and the Tories.

Only from the same school of posters as deny that Barack Obama is the legal president of the USA.

Carnyx

antifrank said:

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Does this mean we have to rerun the indyref?

Because it feels me to the brim with girlish glee

New fraud claims hit Indyref

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55HsT6IIAA4zdi.jpg:large

And we haven't, presumably, heard the last of the scandal of early postal voting counting affecting Labour and the Tories.

Only from the same school of posters as deny that Barack Obama is the legal president of the USA.

I didn't know Police Scotland and the Electoral Commission were birthers! We seem to be at cross purposes.

Quincel

Danny565 said:

antifrank said:

I'm not sure Bath students are typical. Portsmouth South is the surprise for me.

Portsmouth S for me is quite possibly one of the most interesting seats of all. The Lib Dems might be quite damaged by the Mike Hancock saga. It seems like quite fertile territory for UKIP as a coastal town, while also fertile for the Greens because of the students. Then Tories and Labour have decent-ish bases there. Throw in the possibility of Hancock standing as an independent and we have a potential 6-way marginal.

If Hancock runs as an independent, then the seat loses any interest sadly. The LDs might hold on if they can get past him and keep the LD-Con swing down (unlikely, on the limited evidence available), but if their vote is split by Hancock it's over.

TheScreamingEagles

YouGov/Sunday Times polling that makes bad reading for Nigel Farage

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg

Carnyx

antifrank said:

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Does this mean we have to rerun the indyref?

Because it feels me to the brim with girlish glee

New fraud claims hit Indyref

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55HsT6IIAA4zdi.jpg:large

And we haven't, presumably, heard the last of the scandal of early postal voting counting affecting Labour and the Tories.

Only from the same school of posters as deny that Barack Obama is the legal president of the USA.

Just to clarify: http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/ex-spin-doctor-i-knew-of-postal-votes-for-no-im-good-at-my-job.25537308

The investigation is still ongoing

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/16/referendum-rules-electoral-commission

AlastairMeeks

Carnyx said:

antifrank said:

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Does this mean we have to rerun the indyref?

Because it feels me to the brim with girlish glee

New fraud claims hit Indyref

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55HsT6IIAA4zdi.jpg:large

And we haven't, presumably, heard the last of the scandal of early postal voting counting affecting Labour and the Tories.

Only from the same school of posters as deny that Barack Obama is the legal president of the USA.

Just to clarify: http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/ex-spin-doctor-i-knew-of-postal-votes-for-no-im-good-at-my-job.25537308

The investigation is still ongoing

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/16/referendum-rules-electoral-commission

I'll give you an even money bet that the referendum result hasn't been voided by 31 December 2015. I'm all heart.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain’s first-time voters: pro-EU, socially liberal – and no fans of Farage

May 2015 election could be decided by 3 million young voters who are optimistic, tolerant and heavily favour Labour

They are pro-European, socially liberal, regard unemployment and poverty as more important issues than race relations or immigration, and the vast majority are regular users of social media.

There are more than 3 million young people in their generation, now aged 17 to 22, who will have a first chance to vote in a UK general election next May and who could, potentially, decide its outcome.

According to a wide-ranging survey of their views by Opinium for the Observer, they are broadly optimistic about the jobs market – even outside south-east England – and most say that unpaid internships are a good thing if they help young people into permanent employment.

Politically, Labour has a 15-point lead (by 41% to 26%) over the Conservatives among these first-time voters, who shun Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage.

More than three times as many of them – 19% – support the Greens as back the Liberal Democrats (6%), demonstrating how Nick Clegg’s party has lost the young and student vote since the high point of “Cleggmania” in 2010. Just 3% back Ukip.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/first-time-voters-eu-2015-election-farage-labour

It just bears out Churchill's dictum about having a heart at 20 and a head at 40.

Quincel

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain’s first-time voters: pro-EU, socially liberal – and no fans of Farage

May 2015 election could be decided by 3 million young voters who are optimistic, tolerant and heavily favour Labour

They are pro-European, socially liberal, regard unemployment and poverty as more important issues than race relations or immigration, and the vast majority are regular users of social media.

There are more than 3 million young people in their generation, now aged 17 to 22, who will have a first chance to vote in a UK general election next May and who could, potentially, decide its outcome.

According to a wide-ranging survey of their views by Opinium for the Observer, they are broadly optimistic about the jobs market – even outside south-east England – and most say that unpaid internships are a good thing if they help young people into permanent employment.

Politically, Labour has a 15-point lead (by 41% to 26%) over the Conservatives among these first-time voters, who shun Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage.

More than three times as many of them – 19% – support the Greens as back the Liberal Democrats (6%), demonstrating how Nick Clegg’s party has lost the young and student vote since the high point of “Cleggmania” in 2010. Just 3% back Ukip.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/first-time-voters-eu-2015-election-farage-labour

It just bears out Churchill's dictum about having a heart at 20 and a head at 40.

Just for the record, Churchill never said that.

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Winston_Churchill#Misattributed

MikeK

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Britain’s first-time voters: pro-EU, socially liberal – and no fans of Farage

May 2015 election could be decided by 3 million young voters who are optimistic, tolerant and heavily favour Labour

They are pro-European, socially liberal, regard unemployment and poverty as more important issues than race relations or immigration, and the vast majority are regular users of social media.

There are more than 3 million young people in their generation, now aged 17 to 22, who will have a first chance to vote in a UK general election next May and who could, potentially, decide its outcome.

According to a wide-ranging survey of their views by Opinium for the Observer, they are broadly optimistic about the jobs market – even outside south-east England – and most say that unpaid internships are a good thing if they help young people into permanent employment.

Politically, Labour has a 15-point lead (by 41% to 26%) over the Conservatives among these first-time voters, who shun Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage.

More than three times as many of them – 19% – support the Greens as back the Liberal Democrats (6%), demonstrating how Nick Clegg’s party has lost the young and student vote since the high point of “Cleggmania” in 2010. Just 3% back Ukip.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/first-time-voters-eu-2015-election-farage-labour

Yep and just like Cleggmania a large majority of those votes will simply evaporate come election day as those first time voters are too lazy to actually walk a few hundred yards to the polling booth and put an X in a box.

The comments belie the guardian piece, which was from a small sample of 503. In actuall fact many first time voters are joining up with UKIP.

AndyJS

antifrank said:

I now see Portsmouth South as a reasonably straightforward Conservative win. UKIP weren't at the races in the recent opinion poll, the Conservatives had a decent lead and the Lib Dems have no incumbency advantage. Chalk one to the blues.

I would probably disagree. I think it won't be an easy victory for whoever wins, probably less than 2,000 votes.

MikeK

The latest move in UKIP cosmetics:

Go UKIP pic.twitter.com/wZeX8F7XDM

— UKIPNorthCornwall (@UKIPNCornwall) October 9, 2014

AndyJS

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sunday Times polling that makes bad reading for Nigel Farage

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg

Why? Everyone knows at least 75% will never vote UKIP but the party doesn't care about that: their task is upping support from 15% to around 20%.

Ave_it

SLAB = Warnock

=

MikeK

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sunday Times polling that makes bad reading for Nigel Farage

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg

Why? Everyone knows at least 75% will never vote UKIP but the party doesn't care about that: their task is upping support from 15% to around 20%.

Not only that but this sort of poll is rubbish and doesn't mean a thing.

MikeK

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 42s43 seconds ago
First-time voters: Who do you trust more to run the economy?
Cameron & Osborne 28%
Miliband & Balls 19%
Clegg & Cable 5%
None of these 29%

Four months to change the face of Britain.

Quincel

MikeK said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sunday Times polling that makes bad reading for Nigel Farage

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg

Why? Everyone knows at least 75% will never vote UKIP but the party doesn't care about that: their task is upping support from 15% to around 20%.

Not only that but this sort of poll is rubbish and doesn't mean a thing.

A sample of 503 isn't great, but it's difficult for any of us to have balanced samples in our lives either. How do you know the poll is rubbish? Certainly UKIP don't seem to be making inroads in student areas in local elections and exit polls (if memory serves) showed younger people avoiding the party - so 1st time voters note backing UKIP isn't a crazy claim.

Richard_Tyndall

MikeK said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sunday Times polling that makes bad reading for Nigel Farage

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg

Why? Everyone knows at least 75% will never vote UKIP but the party doesn't care about that: their task is upping support from 15% to around 20%.

Not only that but this sort of poll is rubbish and doesn't mean a thing.

Yep but TSE is so desperate to diss UKIP he will cling to anything no matter how tenuous to try and support his case.

nigel4england

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sunday Times polling that makes bad reading for Nigel Farage

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg

Carry On Clutching

MikeK

Quincel said:

MikeK said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sunday Times polling that makes bad reading for Nigel Farage

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg

Why? Everyone knows at least 75% will never vote UKIP but the party doesn't care about that: their task is upping support from 15% to around 20%.

Not only that but this sort of poll is rubbish and doesn't mean a thing.

A sample of 503 isn't great, but it's difficult for any of us to have balanced samples in our lives either. How do you know the poll is rubbish? Certainly UKIP don't seem to be making inroads in student areas in local elections and exit polls (if memory serves) showed younger people avoiding the party - so 1st time voters note backing UKIP isn't a crazy claim.

I was not talking about the same poll. Please pay attention.

Moses_

MikeK said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 42s43 seconds ago
First-time voters: Who do you trust more to run the economy?
Cameron & Osborne 28%
Miliband & Balls 19%
Clegg & Cable 5%
None of these 29%

Four months to change the face of Britain.

Bizarre though follows the standard trend. 19% think Milliband / Balls good for the economy. When they have lived under three different Labour administrations I doubt the answer would be the same.

The young have to learn the hard way I guess.

(Anyone but Labour)

Moses_

Richard_Tyndall said:

MikeK said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sunday Times polling that makes bad reading for Nigel Farage

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg

Why? Everyone knows at least 75% will never vote UKIP but the party doesn't care about that: their task is upping support from 15% to around 20%.

Not only that but this sort of poll is rubbish and doesn't mean a thing.

Yep but TSE is so desperate to diss UKIP he will cling to anything no matter how tenuous to try and support his case.

If UKIP were a cocker spaniel on heat they would always tend to hump the left rather than the right leg

:-)

NickPalmer

Socrates said:

Except that wasn't my argument. My argument was that their own views were not consistent. It would be like wanting taxes cut yet supporting higher welfare spending. Unsurprisingly, young people, who have done a lot of theoretical study but don't have much practical experience of life yet, are very utopian in their views.

Whereas everyone of 18 and over is rigorously consistent about these matters, eh? I'd like to see evidence of a marked difference in realism between 16-year-olds and, say, 25-year-olds.

Changing the subject, TCPolBet has a go at an MP for not living in the constituency. Do people think this matters much (especially in London where constituencies are densely packed), so long as they're available? I mostly lived in Broxtowe but moved to Nottingham in the last few years as my wife, who doesn't drive, found where we were (a village on a lone bus route) too isolated. By coincidence, we moved to live opposite Anna Soubry, who promised to move to the constituency if elected. She did, but only very recently.

Personally I take the view that I'm available more or less 16*7 every week, and where I sleep is largely irrelevant. I never met a constituent who objected (and I've never used it against AS).

Sean_F

Quincel said:

MikeK said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sunday Times polling that makes bad reading for Nigel Farage

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B55ReUaCQAA2LAs.jpg

Why? Everyone knows at least 75% will never vote UKIP but the party doesn't care about that: their task is upping support from 15% to around 20%.

Not only that but this sort of poll is rubbish and doesn't mean a thing.

A sample of 503 isn't great, but it's difficult for any of us to have balanced samples in our lives either. How do you know the poll is rubbish? Certainly UKIP don't seem to be making inroads in student areas in local elections and exit polls (if memory serves) showed younger people avoiding the party - so 1st time voters note backing UKIP isn't a crazy claim.

It's not rubbish. It's just that peoples' political preferences have generally become a good deal more conservative by the time they've turned 40 than when they were in their late teens/early 20s.

I can assert with some confidence that 19% of this age cohort won't be voting Green, 20 years from now. Nor will they be voting for left wing parties by a margin of 60/29%.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

NickPalmer said:

Socrates said:

Except that wasn't my argument. My argument was that their own views were not consistent. It would be like wanting taxes cut yet supporting higher welfare spending. Unsurprisingly, young people, who have done a lot of theoretical study but don't have much practical experience of life yet, are very utopian in their views.

Whereas everyone of 18 and over is rigorously consistent about these matters, eh? I'd like to see evidence of a marked difference in realism between 16-year-olds and, say, 25-year-olds.

Changing the subject, TCPolBet has a go at an MP for not living in the constituency. Do people think this matters much (especially in London where constituencies are densely packed), so long as they're available? I mostly lived in Broxtowe but moved to Nottingham in the last few years as my wife, who doesn't drive, found where we were (a village on a lone bus route) too isolated. By coincidence, we moved to live opposite Anna Soubry, who promised to move to the constituency if elected. She did, but only very recently.

Personally I take the view that I'm available more or less 16*7 every week, and where I sleep is largely irrelevant. I never met a constituent who objected (and I've never used it against AS).

I agree about where the MP lives is not hugely important. As long as they are not too far away, e.g the Luton MP who lived in Southampton.
My MP has not lived in Hertsmere (South Herts) as long as I have been alive.

Moses_

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

NickPalmer said:

Socrates said:

Except that wasn't my argument. My argument was that their own views were not consistent. It would be like wanting taxes cut yet supporting higher welfare spending. Unsurprisingly, young people, who have done a lot of theoretical study but don't have much practical experience of life yet, are very utopian in their views.

Whereas everyone of 18 and over is rigorously consistent about these matters, eh? I'd like to see evidence of a marked difference in realism between 16-year-olds and, say, 25-year-olds.

Changing the subject, TCPolBet has a go at an MP for not living in the constituency. Do people think this matters much (especially in London where constituencies are densely packed), so long as they're available? I mostly lived in Broxtowe but moved to Nottingham in the last few years as my wife, who doesn't drive, found where we were (a village on a lone bus route) too isolated. By coincidence, we moved to live opposite Anna Soubry, who promised to move to the constituency if elected. She did, but only very recently.

Personally I take the view that I'm available more or less 16*7 every week, and where I sleep is largely irrelevant. I never met a constituent who objected (and I've never used it against AS).

I agree about where the MP lives is not hugely important. As long as they are not too far away, e.g the Luton MP who lived in Southampton.
My MP has not lived in Hertsmere (South Herts) as long as I have been alive.

I think living in the area is important. The issue is that the Captain of a ship walks his decks everyday. It's so he or she can see what the true situation is above, on and below decks. If the crew are complaining all is well and good. If they are quiet and say very little then all Captains need to tread very very carefully.

I suggest the same holds good for MPs and their constituencies. Hence, being close to your area is fundamental really. MPs need to be seen to stand with the people that elected them. Doing so from some nice part of the country does not quite cut the mustard. (with certain exceptions of course where red roses apply.)

Charles

NickPalmer said:

Socrates said:

Except that wasn't my argument. My argument was that their own views were not consistent. It would be like wanting taxes cut yet supporting higher welfare spending. Unsurprisingly, young people, who have done a lot of theoretical study but don't have much practical experience of life yet, are very utopian in their views.

Whereas everyone of 18 and over is rigorously consistent about these matters, eh? I'd like to see evidence of a marked difference in realism between 16-year-olds and, say, 25-year-olds.

Changing the subject, TCPolBet has a go at an MP for not living in the constituency. Do people think this matters much (especially in London where constituencies are densely packed), so long as they're available? I mostly lived in Broxtowe but moved to Nottingham in the last few years as my wife, who doesn't drive, found where we were (a village on a lone bus route) too isolated. By coincidence, we moved to live opposite Anna Soubry, who promised to move to the constituency if elected. She did, but only very recently.

Personally I take the view that I'm available more or less 16*7 every week, and where I sleep is largely irrelevant. I never met a constituent who objected (and I've never used it against AS).

It's not a question of living in the precise constituency, as having a good connection to the local people and their concerns and issues.

The 10-15 miles that you live outside Broxtowe shouldn't impact your understanding, so isn't a concern. Equally, I wouldn't be worried about a Kensington MP living in, say, Chelsea or Fulham (although Edinburgh is a little far for my taste). The only place in London I guess it could make a real difference is if an MP under a flight path lived somewhere different.

The issue is much more pronounced where you have London-centric MPs parachuted into, say, Sheffield or Doncaster, or perhaps Clacton. (I'm sure there are Tory examples as well, but none really come to mind! ). It may be possible for an individual to empathise effectively, but it makes the job much harder

Richard_Tyndall

NickPalmer said:

Socrates said:

Except that wasn't my argument. My argument was that their own views were not consistent. It would be like wanting taxes cut yet supporting higher welfare spending. Unsurprisingly, young people, who have done a lot of theoretical study but don't have much practical experience of life yet, are very utopian in their views.

Whereas everyone of 18 and over is rigorously consistent about these matters, eh? I'd like to see evidence of a marked difference in realism between 16-year-olds and, say, 25-year-olds.

Changing the subject, TCPolBet has a go at an MP for not living in the constituency. Do people think this matters much (especially in London where constituencies are densely packed), so long as they're available? I mostly lived in Broxtowe but moved to Nottingham in the last few years as my wife, who doesn't drive, found where we were (a village on a lone bus route) too isolated. By coincidence, we moved to live opposite Anna Soubry, who promised to move to the constituency if elected. She did, but only very recently.

Personally I take the view that I'm available more or less 16*7 every week, and where I sleep is largely irrelevant. I never met a constituent who objected (and I've never used it against AS).

The big difference is that most 16 year old's have no concept of what it is like to actually have to work to earn a living whereas most 25 year old's do.

It is something that does have a noticeable effect on the way they view welfare and tax issues and on the answerability of the state (or the Suprastate) to their concerns. For anyone with any sense, idealism is necessarily mitigated by reality once they start working for a living.