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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Curtice analysis of latest Scottish polling suggests that LAB could be down to 3 seats – the same as the LDs
“..What, however, this poll brings anew to the evidence is an estimate of how well the parties are doing in different types of seats in Scotland. Inevitably, these estimates are based on relatively small sample sizes and thus have to be treated with caution.
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Edit. And a first. What a nice welcome back after my Christmas break.
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=k71wgt1p6b0C&pg=PA629&lpg=PA629&dq=mochras+fault+egryn+lights&source=bl&ots=rB5v5dj-gi&sig=_2UDsVHT5ntecMgtgxL4C5zz2CE&hl=en&sa=X&ei=sImeVNq5MMHrUoKqgcgL&ved=0CCEQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=mochras fault egryn lights&f=false
Sung to Brahn Boots, by Stanley Holloway.
Why should eight-percent of the population (and their Boerish kraal mentality) get so much attention? Gosh, may as well listen to the LibDhimmies next....
'Apart from providing yet further evidence of Labour’s woes north of the border, today’s poll also gives us evidence, further to that previously provided by YouGov, on how people in Scotland view the proposals of the Smith Commission. It confirms the impression created by that earlier reading that those who back the proposals have a lot of work to do to persuade voters of their merits.'
I can see ways for Labour to turn it round in the next four and a half months, but it seems odds against to me right now.
The Holyrood elections in 2011 happened under his watch.
The fracturing of Labour in the Indy Ref happened under his watch.
There is an impending Scottish disaster in 2015, and nothing in Ed Miliband's past suggests he has the skill or insight to avert what will happen.
In fact, what will happen in Westminster in 2015 is nothing really compared to the achievement of the SNP in Holyrood in 2011. Because Labour chose the mixed member proportional representation scheme there to prevent any one party taking majority control. So, the Holyrood trump in 2011 was a greater achievement.
I think only a change in Labour leader in Westminster can avert the impending Labour disaster in Scotland.
Och, it was a bit fun - I've always loved the Mochras lights ... but what is very clear is we are in uncertain territory, thanks to the Labour FPTP advantage and this new factor giving a very non-linear function of votes/seats, though Mr Murphy's claim that he wouldn't lose a single SLAB seat to the SNP was unfortunately ambiguous!
Mr Curtice was quoted very often and with great respect by the Unionists during indyref, so it's odd to see an Unionist with a word against him!
No Labour leader could please the Scots and simultaneously keep the English constituencies required to win on side.
There isn't a set of policies in existence that could do that.
That would go down well in England.
I think a more authentically working class voice from the North of England or Wales -- which share some of the Scottish alienation from Westminster -- could save most of the Scottish seats and could take seats front the Tories in the English Midlands and the North.
Miliband is not that person, and I think if he stays leader, then he will have a third disaster to go with Holyrood 2011, and the IndyRef.
Will he campaign in Scotland? Will Murphy let him?
It looks as if Scotland will have a very big impact, though.
As someone says below, all this has happened on EdM's watch. Neither IDS nor Hague lost the SE of England, which is the Tory equivalent. The one consolation of the Tories winning most seats in May is that it will bring Ed's abysmal leadership to an end.
Is there anything that any labour leader could say to the Scots that wouldn't torpedo labour's chances in England?
I have my doubts.
It wasn't the tories' time in government that created the SNP's boom it was labour's time. It seems from the outside as if very little changed, because Blair and Brown spent all their efforts trying to keep the English swing seats on side.
But Ed wants to do big philosophical pieces about the squeezed middle and the predators. No one in the real world understands what the hell he is talking about and Scots frankly don't care.
It's also notable that that balance is also in reverse to the Yes/No result in indyref, hinting that there was a subpopulation which voted No on the understanding that there would be serious devomax, as indeed must have been the whole motivation behind Mr Cameron et al's 'Vow':
'But even those who voted No in September give the package a pretty lukewarm reception; only 38% think the proposals are about right, not much more than the combined proportion of those who think they go far (22%) or not far enough (9%).'
That would be the political equivalent of putting a wolverine in a cage with an sick rabbit.
Oh dear...
The majority of people joining the SNP are motivated, working, new to politics, aged 25 to 55 and from a range of socio-economic backgrounds. Therefore, I think the media portrayal of the SNP surge as being driven by blind faith cyber-Nats is way off the mark and if anything will only keep driving up SNP membership. Similarly the SLAB demonising of the SNP is counterproductive as around 40 % of its traditional support base are currently supporting the SNP.
Turning to the May 2015 election in Stirling, currently Ladbrokes have Labour at 4/9, SNP at 13/8 and Tories at 50/1. In 2010 the result was Labour 42%, Tories 24%, SNP 17% and LibDem 15%. In the referendum, Stirling was 60% No and 40% Yes. I think the SNP will win Stirling with around 40% support. I do not anticipate any significant Unionist tactical voting.
In terms of the GE2015 ground campaign, the SNP now have over 1500 members in Stirling, up over 500%. Candidate selection is underway with 7 good candidates, 3 with political and 4 with ‘’normal’’ backgrounds. The sitting SLAB MP, Anne McGuire, is retiring and the leader of Stirling Council (Johanna Boyd) is standing. Interestingly Johanna leads a SLAB/Tory coalition with SNP being the largest party, suffice to say SLAB and the Tories make uneasy bedfellows.
Looking at Scotland more broadly, I think the SNP membership surge is pretty much across the board. The focus on Yes v No %s is only relevant in a small number of seats, as the No/Unionist vote in most seats is too dispersed to combat the SNP. For example, even in the Borders where the Yes vote was only 33%, the SNP will still be nipping at David Mundel’s heels.
In terms of the incumbency factor, for many Unionist MPs this could end up being negative, even for the vast majority of sitting Labour/LibDem MPs who kept a low profile during the referendum campaign.
1) I wonder what Nick Sparrow thinks of ICM conducting an online opinion poll?
2) UKIP were prompted for explicitly. This is, I believe, a departure for ICM. I wonder whether they will be doing this increasingly in future?
3) All the final Scottish referendum polls overestimated support for Yes by 2 or 3%. It is worth bearing that in mind when assessing the strength of SNP support.
i.e. if (when) the Tories capture the elusive crossover in the polls, Labour's tombstone in Scotland will be firmly cemented in place?
OTOH, if Labour maintain an overall lead in the run-up to polling day, might some waverers return to the tribal fold?
Things, of course, may well have changed after the independence referendum.
Edit: But yes, I'd say likely Tory victory would help a little. Trouble is Labour have done their best to achieve Tory rule over Scotland during indyref, so a likely Tory win won't make as much difference as it used to, is my gut feeling. The Tories here are saying 'vote SNP get Labour' and Labour is saying 'vote SNP get Tory'!
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4973/destruction-middle-east-antiquities
How so called sharia law is destroying Muslim history and buildings.
I have just worked out that, even if Salmond had no support in England (which I doubt given I saw him being enthusiastically received on a Liverpool QT the other week), today's sky high ratings in Scotland alone would make him statistically more popular than Nick Clegg across the UK!
Junior has disabled the 'flag' option....
Time is running out for any switch of resources to have any material effect.
Interesting, thank you.
One thought does occur to me though - if there is a huge surge of people who are 'new to politics', is this sustainable? We've seen massive surges of outsider parties in unusual events - the Greens in the 1980s over the poll tax spring to mind - who wither away very quickly when the going demands more of them.
I am not saying that will happen - only asking if you've seen any sign of it yet, or if it will be sustained until the GE.
A comparable phenomenon (although you won't thank me for it!) might be UKIP, which have been surging on the back of anti-politics feeling in England in recent months but much of whose vote is from those who were disenchanted before. If that remains the case, it might lead to a fall in support at an election - but then again, it might not.
Edited-to-Add:
Having done the colon-Alpha I wonder if a) this is an attempt to boost hits per post, or - more likely - b) a hideous expense on Junior servers...!
This conversation really needs a spreadsheet with the Lab->SNP majorities and the per-constituency yes/no votes in it.
What is amazing about the Scottish polls is that until early this morning [ I have not checked later ] SNP were ahead in only 16 seats in the betting markets. Even on the number of Labour seats , 25+ and 25- were both at 5/6.
Surely huge betting opportunities ? What are punters waiting for ?
This constituency could be of interest to the bettors on here – can one find odds somewhere? (btw Edinburgh voted 61.1% No in the Indyref).
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/edinburgh-south/winning-party
How do you feel about tactically voting for Labour?
@guardian_clark: @TSEofPB @MSmithsonPB trying to upload full tabs
https://t.co/4QAEvQEz21 Apols if it doesn't work!
Amazing performance by The Tories and Dave to be only three seats behind Labour in Scotland.
Like Antifrank time to lump on some more on the SNP.
Shadsy's tweets last night indicated which way the betting markets are heading.
With a party split over Europe looming, Owen Paterson could win the leadership if Cameron loses the general election
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/predictions/politics/11303574/general-elections.html
Someone in the previous thread asked about DC's relevance to a place like Glasgow Govan. My reply would be: as relevant as EdM is and as relevant as EdM is to Doncaster. He is one of the MPs who were parachuted into Northern safe Labour seats by New Labour without having any relevance to most of their constituents. Fortunately, many of those Labour MPs are no longer in the HoC.
There is a good skit on EdM in the Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/dec/27/-sp-ed-miliband-brief-encounter-hampstead-heath-stranger-than-fiction-ian-martin
If you wait, for easily read widely available info to come out, released at an announced time so everyone interested in political betting is waiting for it, then you are likely to miss the value, and if you do get on before the bookie sees the polls, your account will be marked "rat" rather than "shrewd", and future stakes limited
I have to say I'm increasingly happy for them to go after staunchly hoping that they wouldn't last time.
Curtice says 10 - for some reason his article hasn't been copied correctly.
(And has to be 10 otherwise total does not add to 59).
Remember that much of the Unionist debate was about how screwed the Scottish economy would be, and carefully omitted discussing to what degree that was true of the UK economy. It positively gave the impression all was roses in the UK garden and that is a heck of a hostage to fortune.
Hope we either get more snow or a warm night, otherwise I suspect the road outside my house will resemble an ice rink tomorrow.
Govan, nae mae.
Passports nae mae,
East Kilbride nae mae.
And think of those bankers,
The Ones who live in London or Sydney.
The give us aour headquaters,
Despite of our history of incompetence...!
Hoo, hoo, hoo. Hoo, hoo, hoo, ho!
And then think of the bennies,
And just not those in Edinborough.
Creaming expenditure;
Despite demo-graphic-cahs!
When we kraal, can we send the police from Edinborough.
Smash the boots on the English, from Carlilse to Middlesborough...!
Hoo, hoo, hoo. Hoo, hoo, hoo ho!
I lookah da mountains,
Of rusty oil-rigs and eco-warriors.
I pledge to Scotland that they,
Belong nae to us!!!
When you troll, can yae nae paste,
From Whinges-from-Somerset.
If yae gae a second go,
Can you try to grow a proper set...!
Hoo, hoo, hoo. Hoo, hoo, hoo ho!
"July 2015
Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, makes a unilateral declaration of independence, justifying the move by the fact that neither coalition party (Cons & UKIP) has a single MP in Scotland.
Yvette Cooper becomes Labour leader. Her first decision is to sack her husband, Ed Balls, from the shadow cabinet.
August:
Confronted with a full-scale constitutional crisis following Scotland's unilateral decision to break up the UK, Prime Minister May is urged to send troops North of the Border.
Instead, she cuts off all funding from Westminster to Scotland, which allows an 8p cut in the basic rate of tax for all English taxpayers. Mrs May becomes the most popular PM in living memory.
In Scotland, however, support for independence falters as a financial crisis leads to mass sackings of public sector workers, welfare benefits slashed and taxes raised on alcohol. Inevitably, huge amounts of cheap whisky are smuggled back into Scotland from Northumberland.
In England, the new Tory/Ukip coalition promises a referendum on EU membership in six months. Brussels bureaucrats panic and authorise billions of euros to be spent on an advertising campaign to persuade the British people to stay in the EU.
Lord Tebbit threatens to go to court to challenge this 'illegal' use of taxpayers' money, but relents when Brussels says the money is not needed because it can rely on the BBC to act as a pro-EU propaganda machine."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2888053/Old-Heffer-s-Almanac-2015-Russell-Brand-humiliated-Germany-quits-euro-Balmoral-confiscated-Scot-Nats.html
Don't forget how bad the sovereign debt crisis was, is, and shall be in the coming months/years.
My impression, though, is that the only serious tactical vote action in Britain is the Lib<->Lab vote, which gsthers behind the stronger candidate with impressive discipline. It's not obvious that anyone else has got seriously into it.
Although, just to contradict myself, the rider is I'm not sure how much stock we can really put in Scottish opinion polls because respondents don't seem able to distinguish between their preferences between Westminster and Holyrood elections. That ICM poll yesterday also had a Holyrood voting intentions, which was virtually identical to the Westminster poll, which would be very odd considering the dramatic differences we've seen between the two different types of election in recent years.
Summery Justice 33/1 each way in the Welsh National.
He will like the ground and is at the lower end of the weights. It will be a real slog today in Heavy ground so at the price he looks worth a bet.