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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove: the next Tory Leader?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,137
edited June 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove: the next Tory Leader?

There’s a piece by Benedict Brogan in this morning’s Telegraph about Michael Gove, where he writes about Michael Gove as a possible contender to replace David Cameron.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2013
    Good morning everyone from sunny Europe (the profitable, economically productive bit).

    Don't see this one happening. Smart man, Gove, and principled, which is a good thing. Sadly has a face for radio, though, which is increasingly important these days

    edit: still no answer from tim on why union donations in kind shouldn't be counted like other donations
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Depends on the election result; if the Tories win, his time is gone. If they lose, maybe.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    You must be getting desperate for thread choices, TSE.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Michael Gove is one of the best members of the Cabinet. He is one of the main reasons I decided to join the Conservative Party. He is the best Education Secretary for decades.

    It would be easy for me to fall into the trap of thinking that "therefore" he should be the next leader, or the next Prime Minister, or whatever; but I fear that he might be promoted into the wrong position. It might be the Peter Principle in action. Let him stay doing a good job in Education, and let someone who is a bit more, er, normal, be the next leader.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 3rd June - CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 16%; APP -35
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    edited June 2013
    Gove is much cleverer than Osborne and as a journalist he knows how to tickle the tummies of right wing hacks and editors. But his attachment to secrecy, confrontation, statistical manipulation and factual distortion mean he is not an attractive proposition for many swing voters. You would not believe it if you only read the Mail and Telegraph, but his evidence-light, anecdote-based approach to educational reform is not wildly popular among voters. Scrapping the London Challenge because it was ideologically inconvenient was a crass and destructive act of folly.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    OT, an important piece on epistemic closure and how you should treat responses to survey questions. It turns partisan out voters are less badly informed than they seem when they answer surveys without a financial incentive. They know what's actually going on, but they'll tell you what they want to be true, rather than what they actually think is true.

    http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/03/if-you-pay-them-money-partisans-will-tell-you-the-truth/
    Take unemployment: Without any money involved, Democrats’ estimates of the change in unemployment under Bush were about 0.9 points higher than Republicans’ estimates. But when correct answers were rewarded, that gap shrank to 0.4 points. When correct answers
    and “don’t knows” were rewarded, it shrank to 0.2 points.

    The authors conclude that false answers -- like Democrats saying that casualties in Iraq
    increased from 2007 to 2008 -- are just cheap talk, a way to signal a party affiliation rather
    than a sincere belief.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Gove is much cleverer than Osborne and as a journalist he knows how to tickle the tummies of right wing journalists and editors. But his attachment to secrecy, confrontation, statistical manipulation and factual distortion mean he is not an attractive proposition for many swing voters. You would not believe it if you only read the Mail and Telegraph, but his evidence-light, anecdote-based approach to educational reform is not wildly popular among voters. Scrapping the London Challenge because it was ideologically inconvenient was a crass and destructive act of folly.

    Can you point me to the data showing that the London Challenge was a cost-effective way of improving education outcomes?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    Charles said:

    Gove is much cleverer than Osborne and as a journalist he knows how to tickle the tummies of right wing journalists and editors. But his attachment to secrecy, confrontation, statistical manipulation and factual distortion mean he is not an attractive proposition for many swing voters. You would not believe it if you only read the Mail and Telegraph, but his evidence-light, anecdote-based approach to educational reform is not wildly popular among voters. Scrapping the London Challenge because it was ideologically inconvenient was a crass and destructive act of folly.

    Can you point me to the data showing that the London Challenge was a cost-effective way of improving education outcomes?

    Can you point to any data about the current cost of free schools?

    I can point to plenty of data that shows the London Challenge was a spectacular success. Cost-effectiveness is a highly subjective, easily manipulated concept - and a great excuse to use when you are looking to justify getting rid of stuff you don't like, especially when it works and is ideologically inconvenient.

  • Yep, those 10/1 odds referred to by TSE are available from Ladbrokes. He's somewhat shorter elsewhere.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    Some of the media love him, which is probably unsurprising given his background, whilst most of the public, including Conservatives, find him loathsome.

    Hopefully therefore the blues will be stupid enough to elect him leader.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The next Tory leader will be the candidate who is viewed as the most electorally credible Eurosceptic. That was why Cameron's pledge to leave the European People's Party was so important - it established him as a Eurosceptic.

    When Gove declared for BOO I reckoned he became the next Conservative leader - unless Boris re-enters Parliament.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Scott_P said:
    Keith Vaz and "dozens of councillors". Is that the best they can do?
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    A few threads ago, antifrank wrote Tilda Swinton would also be a very unsettling Doctor Who, so again if the idea of a female Doctor Who is being pursued, she'd be good.

    In “The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe”, Tilda Swinton played the Witch. When filming her first scenes with Skandar Keynes (who played Edmund) she stayed in character and was deliberately cold and abrupt with him so that he felt uncomfortable and realistically awkward in the way that Edmund would have been.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Michael Gove would be to the Conservative right what Michael Foot was to the Labour left - ideologically sound. But to everyone else he would be an unelectable figure of ridicule.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,481
    Charles said:

    Good morning everyone from sunny Europe (the profitable, economically productive bit).

    Don't see this one happening. Smart man, Gove, and principled, which is a good thing. Sadly has a face for radio, though, which is increasingly important these days

    edit: still no answer from tim on why union donations in kind shouldn't be counted like other donations


    Should newspaper editorials count as "donations in kind" ?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Gove is too short to be a successful party leader. Harsh and unfair but true.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    David Cameron is quite safe while Michael Gove is being talked about.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Good morning, everyone.

    Not sure I can see this happening; Gove's a bit too Marmite.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Turkey: I've heard that there's a reason the army hasn't intervened. Apparently Erdogan's used the last decade to systematically file charges against the upper echelons of secular officers, and has, especially in the last few years, been replacing them with people more in line with his own views.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    JohnLoony said:

    A few threads ago, antifrank wrote Tilda Swinton would also be a very unsettling Doctor Who, so again if the idea of a female Doctor Who is being pursued, she'd be good.

    There's not going to be a female Doctor; the rebooted series works on a sexual dynamic between doctor and pretty female companion (Donna excepted, not that I wouldn't but, you know.....)

    It doesn't work with a woman, the Doctor is an essentially male character.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Word 'disaster' gets lost in translation:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22754866

    "It would be a "political disaster" if the UK pulled out of the human rights convention, the president of the European Court of Human Rights says.

    Judge Dean Spielmann said it would also mean leaving the 47-member Council of Europe and possibly the EU."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Charles said:

    Gove is much cleverer than Osborne and as a journalist he knows how to tickle the tummies of right wing journalists and editors. But his attachment to secrecy, confrontation, statistical manipulation and factual distortion mean he is not an attractive proposition for many swing voters. You would not believe it if you only read the Mail and Telegraph, but his evidence-light, anecdote-based approach to educational reform is not wildly popular among voters. Scrapping the London Challenge because it was ideologically inconvenient was a crass and destructive act of folly.

    Can you point me to the data showing that the London Challenge was a cost-effective way of improving education outcomes?

    Can you point to any data about the current cost of free schools?

    I can point to plenty of data that shows the London Challenge was a spectacular success. Cost-effectiveness is a highly subjective, easily manipulated concept - and a great excuse to use when you are looking to justify getting rid of stuff you don't like, especially when it works and is ideologically inconvenient.

    I have had 3 children in London schools for the last 18 years and have never heard of the London Challenge let alone noticed that it had been abolished. What was it? And why did Gove get rid of it?

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Turkey: I've heard that there's a reason the army hasn't intervened. Apparently Erdogan's used the last decade to systematically file charges against the upper echelons of secular officers, and has, especially in the last few years, been replacing them with people more in line with his own views.

    Radio 4 was reporting that 2 people had been killed in the demonstrations.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,739
    Gove has many strong points. He is intelligent, articulate and courteous. He has a strong intellectual framework and is a traditional liberal. His performance at Leveson was outstanding, almost making that circus worthwhile. It also no doubt won him many friends and admirers in the press and media.

    There will be no vacancy for tory leader before the election. If the tories lose that election I suspect that they could do worse for a Loto. He performs well in the House and can be quite cutting in an understated way. Personally, I would like to see him master another portfolio before he got to that point but politics just doesn't seem to work that way anymore. I certainly don't see him moving from Education before the election.

    10/1 doesn't seem far out.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Apparently Erdogan's used the last decade to systematically file charges against the upper echelons of secular officers

    Tbf a lot of them have spent a lot of the last 10 years plotting to overthrow him.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not sure I can see this happening; Gove's a bit too Marmite.

    So was Maggie. She was education minister also, before becoming PM.

    Gove also shares her provincial petit bourgouise background, and unwillingness to suffer fools gladly.

    Gove has a clear ideology and is unafraid to stick up for it against opinion, such as at Leveson and at the recent headteachers conference. He would be a good leader of the opposition.

    Could he be PM with voter appeal? Possibly not, but he will be facing another political nerd wich balances things a bit.

    Remember that what appeals to me or even the country is not relavent. The choice will be made by the parliamentary party and conservative membership.

    I have a few quid on.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,312
    On Gove:

    On Friday I went for a picnic with a friend who is a teacher at a private school, despite being rather to the left politically. She expressed an utter hatred and contempt for Gove and every single one of his policies. According to her, he does not understand education and is trying to bend his own bad ideas onto a good education system. However when I tried to pin her down on why, she could not really elucidate *why* they were bad.

    She rather blotted her copybook when she called him ill-educated and thick; two characteristics I would not pin on Gove. (Although there is a difference between intellectual and practical intelligence).

    Compare with some other friends of mine, one of whom went through school during the Labour years, who hate the way the education system was set up in the 2000s. Their views are equally woolly and hard to pin down.

    From these few anecdotes, I see Gove as a divisive character, and that means he will not be PM.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Neil said:

    Apparently Erdogan's used the last decade to systematically file charges against the upper echelons of secular officers

    Tbf a lot of them have spent a lot of the last 10 years plotting to overthrow him.
    and rightly so, his administration has worked at undermining the very foundations of the secular kemelist state. I for one would happily applaud a military coup d e'tat
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    and rightly so, his administration has worked at undermining the very foundations of the secular kemelist state. I for one would happily applaud a military coup d e'tat

    Unfortunately the foundations of the secular kemelist state arent overwhelmingly popular with the Turkish people.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    tim said:

    @DAaronovitch: I would strongly recommend listening back to this am's Today programme segment on immigration and the A&E crisis to hear a new myth crushed.

    The poor Tory scapegoater was flattened by the facts.

    What I heard was Clare Gerarda (who I know so should declare an interest) say that the number of people attending A&E in London had flatlined, which is not quite what those shouting about an A&E crisis have been saying - at least as far as London is concerned. However, as I was busy doing other things at the time I may have missed something.

    The point about immigrants - is a different one and it is this - that those who are not entitled to free health care i.e. those who are not British residents or in possession of the EU health card should pay for their treatment, as is currently the law. But that point wasn't really touched on.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Minister tears Red a new one and is suddenly the next messiah. Whats next - shooting a fish in a barrel ?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,693
    DavidL said:

    Gove has many strong points. He is intelligent, articulate and courteous. He has a strong intellectual framework and is a traditional liberal. His performance at Leveson was outstanding, almost making that circus worthwhile. It also no doubt won him many friends and admirers in the press and media.

    There will be no vacancy for tory leader before the election. If the tories lose that election I suspect that they could do worse for a Loto. He performs well in the House and can be quite cutting in an understated way. Personally, I would like to see him master another portfolio before he got to that point but politics just doesn't seem to work that way anymore. I certainly don't see him moving from Education before the election.

    10/1 doesn't seem far out.

    I wouldn't disagree with too much of that although he strikes me as an older version of the 1997 version of William Hague - too wonky, too eccentric and too clever by half. Of course, in that comparison, he would have the immeasurable advantage of being up against Ed Miliband rather than honeymoon-era Tony Blair but I still don't see him chiming much with the public. He is in line for a promotion to higher office should one become available though

    Where he does 'get it' is in promoting the interests of ordinary C1/C2 (and below) voters, as they used to be called; free schools being the prime example. IMO, no minister has done more to improve the opportunities for social mobility in the last 15 years - or received less credit due. Still, a leader has to be a salesman and I don't see Gove as that. The mind behind the voice? That's another matter.
  • AslawAslaw Posts: 6
    An insensitive man with blinkered vision. Gove has all Milliband's oddities including speech and looks and fails to communicate any sense of empathy and understanding. He'd make a good asset to UKIP, but they are all swivel eyed..................!
    Send him back to the Times where he can do less damage.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Minister tears Red a new one and is suddenly the next messiah. Whats next - shooting a fish in a barrel ?

    It's related to Osbornes implosion.
    They needed a new Messiah

    Glad you agree that beating up red is no fair measure of a mans ability.

    Otherwise Len McLusky and Hugh Grant would be the top politicians in the country.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,835

    Word 'disaster' gets lost in translation:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22754866

    "It would be a "political disaster" if the UK pulled out of the human rights convention, the president of the European Court of Human Rights says.

    Judge Dean Spielmann said it would also mean leaving the 47-member Council of Europe and possibly the EU."

    Morning all :)

    Without reverting to kneejerk anti-EU rhetoric, let's consider what Spielman has actually said:

    "Courts are there to decide and to control action taken by the Executive. This is the basic principle of any democracy."

    My interpretation of those words is that in Spielman's eyes, the judiciary acts as a counter-balance to the Executive (note that term rather than Legislature). Now, I've no problem with this - bad legislation which can pass through a whipped Parliament can and has to be challenged so shouldn't the role of the Judiciary be as a last line of defence against unjust or unreasonable law?

    Conservative MP Dominic Raab takes a different line arguing that the ECHR lacks democratic accountability and that any body making new law should be accountable.

    Again, a very reasonable argument - Parliament makes the law and is accountable while the Judiciary acts as a layer of scrutiny and is not.

    Spielman's counter is that the nations in the Council of Europe have effectively pooled sovereignty and created a supra-national mechanism and here's where we get to the nub of the gist - Raab says only Parliament can create new law because it is accountable while Spielman asserts that by joining the Council, we have explicitly agreed to pool sovereignty and therefore empowered the ECHR to create new law.

    I can see why those opposed to the EU would be hugely uncomfortable with this - giving away the power to make law for the British people is a big step though we are part of other international legal frameworks which presumably also required the assent of Parliament to be enacted. I suspect, as Spielman points out, that there are countries which do not and have not ratified ECHR or Council decisions when they simply choose not to and the extent of any sanction seems at best unclear.


  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Neil said:


    Unfortunately the foundations of the secular kemelist state arent overwhelmingly popular with the Turkish people.

    I'm not so stressed with that tbh.

    The problem with Islamists is that they think that 51% of the vote gives them the right to impose their views on others, it doesn't. That's not real democracy.

    One of the main things a successful state needs to do, is to protect the rights of the minority. The Kemelist state let people pray as much as they wanted, didn't force people to have a beer nor to wear a bikini. The Islamist want to enforce their views on others.

    Frankly, I'm all for a bunch of Cols to send in the troops right now.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    That's not real democracy.

    Neither, obviously, is a military dictatorship.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    DavidL said:

    Gove has many strong points. He is intelligent, articulate and courteous. He has a strong intellectual framework and is a traditional liberal. His performance at Leveson was outstanding, almost making that circus worthwhile. It also no doubt won him many friends and admirers in the press and media.

    There will be no vacancy for tory leader before the election. If the tories lose that election I suspect that they could do worse for a Loto. He performs well in the House and can be quite cutting in an understated way. Personally, I would like to see him master another portfolio before he got to that point but politics just doesn't seem to work that way anymore. I certainly don't see him moving from Education before the election.

    10/1 doesn't seem far out.

    I wouldn't disagree with too much of that although he strikes me as an older version of the 1997 version of William Hague - too wonky, too eccentric and too clever by half. Of course, in that comparison, he would have the immeasurable advantage of being up against Ed Miliband rather than honeymoon-era Tony Blair but I still don't see him chiming much with the public. He is in line for a promotion to higher office should one become available though

    Where he does 'get it' is in promoting the interests of ordinary C1/C2 (and below) voters, as they used to be called; free schools being the prime example. IMO, no minister has done more to improve the opportunities for social mobility in the last 15 years - or received less credit due. Still, a leader has to be a salesman and I don't see Gove as that. The mind behind the voice? That's another matter.
    Does the leader really have to be a salesman? Fashions change, isn't there a chance the public have had enough of false promises emanating from smooth PR men?

    Wouldn't an Ed Miliband win in 2015, coupled with Brown denying the Tories an outright victory in 2010, put paid to that theory? John Major? Margaret Thatcher?!

    My friends aren't political in the slightest but when I mentioned Farage to one of them the other day, he said he was great but you can't have a joker running the country... Said the same for Boris.... And these are Essex boys who like football and lager!

    Personally, I think Gove comes across very well, I'd consider voting Tory if he was leader. If being too clever and articulate is a political curse, then what kind of state are we in?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Gove is much cleverer than Osborne ... his evidence-light, anecdote-based approach ... reform is not wildly popular among voters.

    SO

    Evidence for the comparative assessment of Osborne's and Gove's intelligence?

    Or did you reach this conclusion by means of an anecdote-based approach?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Andrew Neil tweets : "Fascinating to see how the prospect of Britain growing faster than Germany causes so many so much angst! Doesn't it fit your narrative?"
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    JohnLoony said:

    Michael Gove is one of the best members of the Cabinet. He is one of the main reasons I decided to join the Conservative Party. He is the best Education Secretary for decades.

    He's palpably one of the worst.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,835

    Neil said:


    Unfortunately the foundations of the secular kemelist state arent overwhelmingly popular with the Turkish people.

    I'm not so stressed with that tbh.

    The problem with Islamists is that they think that 51% of the vote gives them the right to impose their views on others, it doesn't. That's not real democracy.

    One of the main things a successful state needs to do, is to protect the rights of the minority. The Kemelist state let people pray as much as they wanted, didn't force people to have a beer nor to wear a bikini. The Islamist want to enforce their views on others.

    Frankly, I'm all for a bunch of Cols to send in the troops right now.
    Am I right in thinking that a coup would put an end to any ambitions for Turkey to join the EU as a member? I thought all EU members had to be parliamentary democracies and that any extra-constitutional putsch would be a breach of that membership.

    I won't go on....I wouldn't like to give UKIP and the BOO-ers any ideas.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,312
    BenM said:


    JohnLoony said:

    Michael Gove is one of the best members of the Cabinet. He is one of the main reasons I decided to join the Conservative Party. He is the best Education Secretary for decades.

    He's palpably one of the worst.
    Why?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "Labour would risk losing as much support as it would gain by backing Tory spending plans – that’s the message from the latest question from the LabourList/Survation survey."

    http://labourlist.org/2013/06/poll-shows-little-enthusiasm-for-labour-backing-tory-spending-plans-except-from-labour-supporters/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    edited June 2013
    Possible by-election in Pompey south draws nearer ? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-22762923

    On Topic: I think he'd be a very good leader, I think others don't - I've got him backed and then laid off again on Betfair at the moment anyway. That being said I'll top up another fiver, anything over 8-1 is value I think. £5 on T May at 7.68 on Betfair also..

    My big green is on Hammond though !
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    BenM said:


    JohnLoony said:

    Michael Gove is one of the best members of the Cabinet. He is one of the main reasons I decided to join the Conservative Party. He is the best Education Secretary for decades.

    He's palpably one of the worst.
    Good Morning, Ben.

    Retail Sales are a real b*gger, aren't they?

    Not two weeks ago you were jumping up and down demanding my immediate response to news from the ONS that they fell in April.

    And we have all the distortions like the timing of Easter and in which month the snow fell to contend with.

    Well, what do you know, but up pops the British Retail Consortion with the first estimate of sales in May and the story changes completely.

    UK retail sales rebounded in May driven by demand for furniture and flooring, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) revealed.

    Like-for-like sales at stores open at least 12 months grew by 1.8% from a year earlier after dropping 2.2% in April.

    The total value of retail sales climbed by an annual 3.4% in May after falling by 0.6% the previous month.

    Furniture, flooring, childwear and online sales were the major drivers of last month’s results, BRC said.

    "While sales didn't soar through the roof, this is still a very creditable performance from UK retailers,” said David McCorquodale, Head of Retail at KPMG.

    "Remember, these are ‘back to basics’ sales that haven't been artificially boosted by one-off factors like Easter or last year's Jubilee. Promoting the right product at the right price made the difference in May."


    I think we need to wait for the Visa Expenditure Index and eventually the ONS before dancing in the streets, but the interim news does look very encouraging.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    stodge said:


    Am I right in thinking that a coup would put an end to any ambitions for Turkey to join the EU as a member? I thought all EU members had to be parliamentary democracies and that any extra-constitutional putsch would be a breach of that membership.

    I won't go on....I wouldn't like to give UKIP and the BOO-ers any ideas.

    They'd have to be democratic when they joined, but I guess they could do something like:
    - Stage a coup against the current elected government.
    - Make a new constitution with more checks and balances and a higher bar to changing it.
    - Have new elections.
    ...at which point they'd be a democracy again...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,739
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    Gove has many strong points. He is intelligent, articulate and courteous. He has a strong intellectual framework and is a traditional liberal. His performance at Leveson was outstanding, almost making that circus worthwhile. It also no doubt won him many friends and admirers in the press and media.

    There will be no vacancy for tory leader before the election. If the tories lose that election I suspect that they could do worse for a Loto. He performs well in the House and can be quite cutting in an understated way. Personally, I would like to see him master another portfolio before he got to that point but politics just doesn't seem to work that way anymore. I certainly don't see him moving from Education before the election.

    10/1 doesn't seem far out.

    I wouldn't disagree with too much of that although he strikes me as an older version of the 1997 version of William Hague - too wonky, too eccentric and too clever by half. Of course, in that comparison, he would have the immeasurable advantage of being up against Ed Miliband rather than honeymoon-era Tony Blair but I still don't see him chiming much with the public. He is in line for a promotion to higher office should one become available though

    Where he does 'get it' is in promoting the interests of ordinary C1/C2 (and below) voters, as they used to be called; free schools being the prime example. IMO, no minister has done more to improve the opportunities for social mobility in the last 15 years - or received less credit due. Still, a leader has to be a salesman and I don't see Gove as that. The mind behind the voice? That's another matter.
    Does the leader really have to be a salesman? Fashions change, isn't there a chance the public have had enough of false promises emanating from smooth PR men?

    Wouldn't an Ed Miliband win in 2015, coupled with Brown denying the Tories an outright victory in 2010, put paid to that theory? John Major? Margaret Thatcher?!

    My friends aren't political in the slightest but when I mentioned Farage to one of them the other day, he said he was great but you can't have a joker running the country... Said the same for Boris.... And these are Essex boys who like football and lager!

    Personally, I think Gove comes across very well, I'd consider voting Tory if he was leader. If being too clever and articulate is a political curse, then what kind of state are we in?
    I agree with David that the leader does have to be a salesman in a TV age, particularly where we are stuck with debates being a major part of the election campaign.

    I would also agree that Gove is not that salesman yet but that does not mean he cannot learn. The article he did for the Telegraph recently was an effective demolition of Ed Miliband (admittedly a bit of an open target) and a much more assertive voice than we are used to. He would need to do a lot more of that and, unfortunately, a little less of the old world charm which I personally enjoy.

    I think he has the capacity for growth. Let's face it Maggie started off painfully awkward and difficult. Her advantages, like Gove, were that she knew what she wanted to say, why it was important and she had weak opponents. Gove would have all of those advantages but he would realistically only become leader in opposition.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,835
    AveryLP said:

    BenM said:


    JohnLoony said:

    Michael Gove is one of the best members of the Cabinet. He is one of the main reasons I decided to join the Conservative Party. He is the best Education Secretary for decades.

    He's palpably one of the worst.
    Good Morning, Ben.

    Retail Sales are a real b*gger, aren't they?

    Not two weeks ago you were jumping up and down demanding my immediate response to news from the ONS that they fell in April.

    And we have all the distortions like the timing of Easter and in which month the snow fell to contend with.

    Well, what do you know, but up pops the British Retail Consortion with the first estimate of sales in May and the story changes completely.

    UK retail sales rebounded in May driven by demand for furniture and flooring, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) revealed.

    Like-for-like sales at stores open at least 12 months grew by 1.8% from a year earlier after dropping 2.2% in April.

    The total value of retail sales climbed by an annual 3.4% in May after falling by 0.6% the previous month.

    Furniture, flooring, childwear and online sales were the major drivers of last month’s results, BRC said.

    "While sales didn't soar through the roof, this is still a very creditable performance from UK retailers,” said David McCorquodale, Head of Retail at KPMG.

    "Remember, these are ‘back to basics’ sales that haven't been artificially boosted by one-off factors like Easter or last year's Jubilee. Promoting the right product at the right price made the difference in May."


    I think we need to wait for the Visa Expenditure Index and eventually the ONS before dancing in the streets, but the interim news does look very encouraging.
    To be fair, Avery, we are back to a "normal" May this year with two Bank Holkiday weekends. Last year, we only had one because the traditional Whit Monday holiday was moved back one week and combined with an additional holiday to make back-to-back public holidays in early June.

    I'm sure you'd be the first to concede that one month's figures shouldn't be viewed in isolation and I'm also sure much of your view on these issues is to provoke a reaction from the Bens and Tims of this world.

    I don't share your expansive optimism if for no other reason that, as with most other people, I've yet to feel much in the way of tangible benefit. I'm also concerned that your excessive optimism will lead to rises in interest rates sooner than has been widely predicted and that is going to have a real impact on a number of people for whom the recession didn't have that strong an impact.

    Politically, one could also argue that rising rates help savers, many pensioners live off their savings and are or were the bedrock of Conservative support so raising rates before 2015 could be construed as some form of encouragement to return the elderly to the fold. I presume the prescription post 2015 will be higher interest rates offset by tax cuts and "the kind of spending cuts George really wanted to do in 2010 but couldn't because of those peaky Lib Dems".

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,739
    Construction returns to growth in May lead by residential building.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/business-news-markets-live/10097428/Business-news-and-markets-live.html

    I recently predicted that by the autumn we would be seeing an uptick in house building. I really need to curb this inherent pessimism. It would seem that we are on the move already. Taken with the retail figures it looks like May was a very, very good month indeed, probably ensuring a good out turn for Q2. I think it increasingly likely Q2 will exceed the 0.3 of Q1 resulting in major changes in our forecasts for the year and, hopefully, downward revisions of the deficit.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    And to illustrate just how contrary the various early indicators of economic performance can be, just compare the CBI's survey of retailers published last week to the BRC's report published today.

    BRC figures as stated in my post to Ben. Headline figure is that sales are up in May on a Year on Year basis by 3.4%.

    And now for the CBI:

    The Confederation of British Industry’s monthly survey of retail and other ‘distributive’ trades pointed to the worst performance since the start of last year in May. The net balance of retailers reporting increased sales volumes during the month were outnumbered by those
    reporting a decline by 11%, the strongest negative reading since January of last year. The survey has signaled a marked weakening of the trend in the retail environment since peaking last November (with a net balance of some +33%).


    Oh well, it does mean everyone can be happy for a couple of weeks until the ONS finally pronounce on their figures.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,835

    stodge said:


    Am I right in thinking that a coup would put an end to any ambitions for Turkey to join the EU as a member? I thought all EU members had to be parliamentary democracies and that any extra-constitutional putsch would be a breach of that membership.

    I won't go on....I wouldn't like to give UKIP and the BOO-ers any ideas.

    They'd have to be democratic when they joined, but I guess they could do something like:
    - Stage a coup against the current elected government.
    - Make a new constitution with more checks and balances and a higher bar to changing it.
    - Have new elections.
    ...at which point they'd be a democracy again...
    I suspect it wouldn't be as simple as that and that the rest of the EU would probably wish to see an ongoing period of democratic stability before re-starting negotiations for full membership.

    To my knowledge, no country which has joined the EU has ceased to be governed by a Parliamentary democracy during its membership. The likes of Spain, Portugal and Greece didn't join until after their dictatorships had ended and democracy had been re-established and the same was true of the post-Communist countries.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Mourinho won 5 trophies at Chelsea, Blair won 3 General Elections for Labour. Jose is returning, what value Blair to Labour at 25-1 ;)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    I note yesterday that Ed Balls wants to restrict/cut the funding for free schools. This decision is prompted more by politics than economics as more free schools means less control by councils and especially Labour councils. The wish of the electorate to choose the best education for their children, instead of the average/failing stuff that some councils supply, is of course not top of Ed B's priorities - but the political control is top of his list.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting fact:

    In 1961 the West Midlands had higher average incomes than anywhere else in the UK, including London and the South East.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Gove is a prize twit. Always was, always will be.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    stodge said:

    I'm also concerned that your excessive optimism will lead to rises in interest rates sooner than has been widely predicted

    Is ALP on the MPC?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sweden looks like it will elect a left-wing government at the next election, in contrast to the other Scandinavian countries which are trending rightwards according to the polls.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    Am I right in thinking that a coup would put an end to any ambitions for Turkey to join the EU as a member? I thought all EU members had to be parliamentary democracies and that any extra-constitutional putsch would be a breach of that membership.

    I won't go on....I wouldn't like to give UKIP and the BOO-ers any ideas.

    They'd have to be democratic when they joined, but I guess they could do something like:
    - Stage a coup against the current elected government.
    - Make a new constitution with more checks and balances and a higher bar to changing it.
    - Have new elections.
    ...at which point they'd be a democracy again...
    I'm sure they would, although there doesn't seem to be much movement from either side right now, so we're talking about a few years down the line in any case. Regardless of what Turkey does, it's hard to see the member states unanimously agreeing to let them in until such time as the economy improves and the various right-wing populist movements come off the boil a bit.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    tim said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Gove is much cleverer than Osborne and as a journalist he knows how to tickle the tummies of right wing journalists and editors. But his attachment to secrecy, confrontation, statistical manipulation and factual distortion mean he is not an attractive proposition for many swing voters. You would not believe it if you only read the Mail and Telegraph, but his evidence-light, anecdote-based approach to educational reform is not wildly popular among voters. Scrapping the London Challenge because it was ideologically inconvenient was a crass and destructive act of folly.

    Can you point me to the data showing that the London Challenge was a cost-effective way of improving education outcomes?

    Can you point to any data about the current cost of free schools?

    I can point to plenty of data that shows the London Challenge was a spectacular success. Cost-effectiveness is a highly subjective, easily manipulated concept - and a great excuse to use when you are looking to justify getting rid of stuff you don't like, especially when it works and is ideologically inconvenient.

    I have had 3 children in London schools for the last 18 years and have never heard of the London Challenge let alone noticed that it had been abolished. What was it? And why did Gove get rid of it?

    http://www.ofsted.gov.uk/resources/london-challenge

    Ideology


    Thanks Tim. Your second answer is opinion (which may or may not be valid). Is there a link to what the announcement in the HoC said (or wherever it was made)? I'm genuinely interested.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited June 2013
    Michael Gove is an absolute star, easily the best Education Secretary since WWII. Single-handedly he is doing a superb job sorting out the catastrophic legacy of years of neglect, or worse, of the education of the least privileged in England (bad luck, Scotland and Wales). Indeed, he seems to be the only Education Secretary for ages who is actually passionate about dealing with the problem of the UK's pitiably inequitable education system by wanting to improve the worst, unlike the Left's barmy approach of wanting to destroy the best, and in stark contrast to Labour's obsession with prioritising the interests of staff not children..

    In addition, he's exceptionally bright, very witty, has a clear vision, and is delightfully pugilistic in his political style.

    But.... not only is he not really a natural for attracting voters in the centre and not really suited to the TV style, more importantly for betting purposes he has created a fair amount of resentment within the Conservative Party - specifically, Conservative councillors who are part of the educational establishment which he has been laying into so vigorously. That's an important group of people in any leadership contest.

    If a vacancy came up at a suitable time in the next two or three years, and if he wanted the job (he says he doesn't, and I tend to believe him on that), he might be a serious contender; if he got into the final round, everything would depend on who his opponent was. Of the various names which have been bandied about, my guess is that when it came to the members' vote he'd beat Jeremy Hunt, Adam Afriyie or George Osborne, but not Boris, and probably not Philip Hammond or Theresa May (although she's still unpopular because of the 'Nasty Party' remark). Of course, on past form the next leader could well be someone who is currently off the radar.

    Overall, I'd say 10/1 is fair value, but I wouldn't want to take anything less.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Mick_Pork said:

    Gove is a prize twit. Always was, always will be.

    And the Shadow Prize Twit?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4526154.stm
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Mick_Pork said:

    Gove is a prize twit. Always was, always will be.

    That may be so, but he's doing a good job of smashing 50 years of the self interested, self serving, far left leaning teaching unions.

    Other than bringing back grammar schools he's doing a great job.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    stodge said:

    Neil said:


    Unfortunately the foundations of the secular kemelist state arent overwhelmingly popular with the Turkish people.

    I'm not so stressed with that tbh.

    The problem with Islamists is that they think that 51% of the vote gives them the right to impose their views on others, it doesn't. That's not real democracy.

    One of the main things a successful state needs to do, is to protect the rights of the minority. The Kemelist state let people pray as much as they wanted, didn't force people to have a beer nor to wear a bikini. The Islamist want to enforce their views on others.

    Frankly, I'm all for a bunch of Cols to send in the troops right now.
    Am I right in thinking that a coup would put an end to any ambitions for Turkey to join the EU as a member? I thought all EU members had to be parliamentary democracies and that any extra-constitutional putsch would be a breach of that membership.

    I won't go on....I wouldn't like to give UKIP and the BOO-ers any ideas.
    The irony being that the last time there was something approaching a coup in London the plotters invited a Dutchman over to take charge.

    I don't think that would go down very well with UKIP voters.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Michael Gove is certainly bright, can express himself with panache and espouses an intellectual right-wing Conservatism that tickles the Telegraph's G spot. But he looks like a constipated frog (this is extremely important, unfortunately), has no strategic vision and makes no attempt to reach out to those not already convinced by his arguments.

    He would be a quite terrible choice for the Conservatives for their next leader and most Conservatives know it in their heart of hearts. Speculating that he might be the next leader is a bit like going to the pub and casually flirting with the barmaid - a way of expressing forbidden impulses in a way that's never going to get you into trouble.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited June 2013
    O/T I see the FT agrees with me that Balls' move towards re-positioning Labour on the economy is an implicit admission that Osborne has been right all along. From its Editorial:

    Mr Balls did not perform too badly. But his attempted triple contortion was visibly painful.
    ...
    The new strategy may be more realistic. But it will be a hard sell – especially with Mr Balls as its prime salesman – without smelling of capitulation.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf0dc3ae-cc69-11e2-bb22-00144feab7de.html#axzz2VEiKTGtV
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    stodge said:

    AveryLP said:

    BenM said:


    JohnLoony said:

    Michael Gove is one of the best members of the Cabinet. He is one of the main reasons I decided to join the Conservative Party. He is the best Education Secretary for decades.

    He's palpably one of the worst.
    Good Morning, Ben.

    Retail Sales are a real b*gger, aren't they?

    Not two weeks ago you were jumping up and down demanding my immediate response to news from the ONS that they fell in April.

    And we have all the distortions like the timing of Easter and in which month the snow fell to contend with.

    Well, what do you know, but up pops the British Retail Consortion with the first estimate of sales in May and the story changes completely.

    UK retail sales rebounded in May driven by demand for furniture and flooring, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) revealed.

    Like-for-like sales at stores open at least 12 months grew by 1.8% from a year earlier after dropping 2.2% in April.

    The total value of retail sales climbed by an annual 3.4% in May after falling by 0.6% the previous month.

    Furniture, flooring, childwear and online sales were the major drivers of last month’s results, BRC said.

    "While sales didn't soar through the roof, this is still a very creditable performance from UK retailers,” said David McCorquodale, Head of Retail at KPMG.

    "Remember, these are ‘back to basics’ sales that haven't been artificially boosted by one-off factors like Easter or last year's Jubilee. Promoting the right product at the right price made the difference in May."


    I think we need to wait for the Visa Expenditure Index and eventually the ONS before dancing in the streets, but the interim news does look very encouraging.
    To be fair, Avery, we are back to a "normal" May this year with two Bank Holkiday weekends. Last year, we only had one because the traditional Whit Monday holiday was moved back one week and combined with an additional holiday to make back-to-back public holidays in early June.

    I'm sure you'd be the first to concede that one month's figures shouldn't be viewed in isolation and I'm also sure much of your view on these issues is to provoke a reaction from the Bens and Tims of this world.

    I don't share your expansive optimism if for no other reason that, as with most other people, I've yet to feel much in the way of tangible benefit. I'm also concerned that your excessive optimism will lead to rises in interest rates sooner than has been widely predicted and that is going to have a real impact on a number of people for whom the recession didn't have that strong an impact.

    Politically, one could also argue that rising rates help savers, many pensioners live off their savings and are or were the bedrock of Conservative support so raising rates before 2015 could be construed as some form of encouragement to return the elderly to the fold. I presume the prescription post 2015 will be higher interest rates offset by tax cuts and "the kind of spending cuts George really wanted to do in 2010 but couldn't because of those peaky Lib Dems".

    I am glad you have weighed in on the stats stodge as I wanted to comment on a post you made a couple of days ago which links into your post today.

    The particular line I had in mind was: I suspect the public broadly don't mind about what is called austerity but they do want to see their personal financial situation improve which means rising income outstripping rises in things like fares and fuel.

    The fall in standards of living is one area that the Coalition government, even on a most optimistic estimate of performance, cannot solve by 2015. But what they can do is bring the deficit down by, say, 80% by the end of this parliamentary term. Indeed we will start to see movements in forecast deficit reduction towards this kind of level when the OBR publishes its July EFO.

    At the same time underlying inflationary pressures are likely to remain very low at least in the short term, meaning that hiking up the base rate is not seen as likely before 2016 by most economic forecasters. Exiting QE, including new QE to solve the bank recapitalisation and credit supply problems will be the priority.

    Add to this the probability that the government will be able to sell substantial proportions of its shares in the intervened banking groups within the next two years and there is clear sight of a there being very much stronger fiscal position in 2015 than today.

    So we are likely to be going into an election with the deficit job nearly done, government debt substantially reduced (bank share sales) and the economy growing at a reasonable and sustained if not exciting rate.

    Where next? You have suggested that wage rises will be needed to reverse some of the falls in standards of living and to increase the feelgood factor. I am fairly certain that Osborne, at least, will not be agreeing with you.

    This is why Osborne is undertaking a 2015-16 spending review now, and closing out Ed Balls's election options, causing great anger by Ed as evidenced in his speech yesterday.

    Osborne's election proposal will be continued constraint of government spending and wage inflation, offset by stable asset prices (house prices rising with or just below inflation), continued low borrowing costs and the prospect of funded tax cuts.

    Tax cuts will be offered as a reward for austerity, with public and private sector wages increased only in so far as they are linked to productivity gains. The cuts will be balanced with investments in additional infrastructure development, but increasingly the government will be wanting to draw in private sector finance to help with the heavy lifting here.

    Labour will oppose vigorously but their main arguments that core public services will be endangered will have been answered by the ring-fencing policies to protect the NHS and Education. There will also be key private sector investment commitments which the government can use as demonstrators for future rebalancing.

    The tax cuts outlined, based on forward spending plans and 80% achieved fiscal consolidation, will be attacked as electoral bribes but the reality is that they will seen by economists as the natural next step in the recovery process. It will be time to stimulate demand to generate further growth. Balls might want to call them "bribes" but the markets, IMF and OECD and other economic commentators will back the government up on the logic.

    All this has left Ed Balls like a cornered rat. Hence his rage yesterday: the last tirade against austerity economics pitched at the only time he can call into evidence OBR's "flatlining" forecasts.

    But it also challenges Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems. Will the answer be Osborne lite? Or will they go along with the economic logic but with their cuts being more distributive than those offered by the Tories?

    Over to you. Government stimulated or licensed wage inflation will not be the answer to the standards of living conundrum.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @RichardNabavi Polly Toynbee agrees with you too about what's going on (though she would dispute that George Osborne has been right all along):

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/03/labour-iron-man-ed-balls

    "Swallowing the iron envelope hurts, but it has become a necessity since Labour's failure to win crucial arguments: Labour "overspending" has been successfully blamed for the size of the national debt, with the cost of the crash and bank bailouts blurred into the overspending story. Never mind that David Cameron pledged to match Labour spending, or that Gordon Brown didn't crash the global economy – or that the national debt at the time of the crash was less than Labour inherited from John Major in 1997.

    The hard truth is that the Tories and their mighty press have won the battle over the writing of that history, as victors do. Keynes's "paradox of thrift" proved too paradoxical. Now Labour can only try to win the battle for the future – and that requires cauterising the past. Besides, inheriting Osborne's no-growth legacy means there will be no great leeway for a splurge in current spending."
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    antifrank said:

    Polly Toynbee agrees with you too about what's going on

    Oh dear - I'd better go back and check my reasoning in that case!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203
    edited June 2013
    Seems a bit far fetched that Michael Gove could be a future Tory leader, but stranger things have happened...

    I mean, this is the party that elected IDS as leader...
  • MikeSoleMikeSole Posts: 19
    The next Tory Leader will be leader of the opposition with very little chance of becoming PM for sometime. Anyone with PM ambitions will not want to follow Cameron straight away.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @RichardNabavi When Polly Toynbee acknowledges Labour defeat on any subject in one of her articles, the defeat must indeed be obvious.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Watching labour oppose tax cuts in favour of 'we know best' spending in 2015 will be really funny.

    In essence they will be campaigning for the continuation of the austerity the have opposed for the last five years...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    GIN1138 said:

    Seems a bit far fetched that Michael Gove could be a future Tory leader, but stranger things have happened...

    I mean, this is the party that elected IDS as leader...

    Margaret Thatcher was hardly an obvious leader nor was she particularly successful or popular initially, either with the party or in the House of Commons. She was never a great orator and a lot of her mannerisms (before the makeover) were very off-putting.

    Ed Milliband can also appear quite geeky and odd and not obviously voter-friendly.

    I've no idea whether Gove would be a good leader or is even popular within the party. But I wouldn't assume that geekiness, oddness or unappealing personalities are necessarily the killers some here assume.

    Personally I'd prefer an honest, competent geek to a superficially charming but dishonest charlatan (Blair) or a charming but rather empty-headed politician like Cameron.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2013
    How does the "Goves not good looking enough" theory sit alongside Ed Miliband being odds on to be next PM when he is supposedly a geek up against a smoother opponent? or the fact that Gordon Brown, who i voted for despite his lack of charisma/film star looks, wasnt enough of a deterrent to prevent a Tory majority?

    I personally don't think Miliband is that geeky, but apparently that is the public perception.

    I don't think Gove is that geeky either come to that.

    I think that this theory is favoured by political nerds, who assume that because people less clever/interested in political details than them read tabloids and watch reality tv, they will only vote for 'good looking' politicians,
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203
    edited June 2013
    MikeSole said:

    The next Tory Leader will be leader of the opposition with very little chance of becoming PM for sometime. Anyone with PM ambitions will not want to follow Cameron straight away.

    What make's you say that?

    It seems to me we're re-running the 1970's where hung parliaments or very tight majorities are common. There's absolutely no sign of Labour getting a landslide anytime soon (same can be said for the Tories as well of course) so I would expect a string of very tight elections in the next decade or so, with both parties being relatively competitive on relatively small vote shares...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Seems a bit far fetched that Michael Gove could be a future Tory leader, but stranger things have happened...

    I mean, this is the party that elected IDS as leader...

    Margaret Thatcher was hardly an obvious leader nor was she particularly successful or popular initially, either with the party or in the House of Commons. She was never a great orator and a lot of her mannerisms (before the makeover) were very off-putting.

    Ed Milliband can also appear quite geeky and odd and not obviously voter-friendly.

    I've no idea whether Gove would be a good leader or is even popular within the party. But I wouldn't assume that geekiness, oddness or unappealing personalities are necessarily the killers some here assume.

    Personally I'd prefer an honest, competent geek to a superficially charming but dishonest charlatan (Blair) or a charming but rather empty-headed politician like Cameron.
    Snap!

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    edited June 2013
    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Seems a bit far fetched that Michael Gove could be a future Tory leader, but stranger things have happened...

    I mean, this is the party that elected IDS as leader...

    Margaret Thatcher was hardly an obvious leader nor was she particularly successful or popular initially, either with the party or in the House of Commons. She was never a great orator and a lot of her mannerisms (before the makeover) were very off-putting.

    Ed Milliband can also appear quite geeky and odd and not obviously voter-friendly.

    I've no idea whether Gove would be a good leader or is even popular within the party. But I wouldn't assume that geekiness, oddness or unappealing personalities are necessarily the killers some here assume.

    Personally I'd prefer an honest, competent geek to a superficially charming but dishonest charlatan (Blair) or a charming but rather empty-headed politician like Cameron.

    Unfortunately your'e being offered a dishonest incompetent geek: one who can't admit his role in the UK's economic mess and who couldn't work out we needed to build power stations.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,374
    What on earth could Boris mean?

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m

    Boris Johnson, announcing book on Winston Churchill, declares: 'The point of the ‘‘Churchill Factor’’ is one man can make all the difference.' Subtle!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Seems a bit far fetched that Michael Gove could be a future Tory leader, but stranger things have happened...

    I mean, this is the party that elected IDS as leader...

    Margaret Thatcher was hardly an obvious leader nor was she particularly successful or popular initially, either with the party or in the House of Commons. She was never a great orator and a lot of her mannerisms (before the makeover) were very off-putting.

    Ed Milliband can also appear quite geeky and odd and not obviously voter-friendly.

    I've no idea whether Gove would be a good leader or is even popular within the party. But I wouldn't assume that geekiness, oddness or unappealing personalities are necessarily the killers some here assume.

    Personally I'd prefer an honest, competent geek to a superficially charming but dishonest charlatan (Blair) or a charming but rather empty-headed politician like Cameron.

    Unfortunately you'e being offered a dishonest incompetent geek: one who can't admit his role in the UKs economic mess and who couldn't work out we needed to build power stations.
    The energy issue is I think going to be critical in the next few years: not just the cost of it but whether we will have enough energy to stop the lights going out. And the lack of reliable energy at a reasonable price is, I'd have thought, going to be at least as important to firms deciding whether to invest in this country as whether or not we're in the EU.

    Whoever is in charge is going to suffer mightily........

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    edited June 2013

    What on earth could Boris mean?

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m

    Boris Johnson, announcing book on Winston Churchill, declares: 'The point of the ‘‘Churchill Factor’’ is one man can make all the difference.' Subtle!

    Obviously it's a statement of support for the PM
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,374



    What on earth could Boris mean?

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m

    Boris Johnson, announcing book on Winston Churchill, declares: 'The point of the ‘‘Churchill Factor’’ is one man can make all the difference.' Subtle!

    Obviously it's a statement of support for the PM
    If he was going to make a statement of support for the PM, his book would have been called the Caesar factor, the greatest leader of all time.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    One thing's for sure. Gove is vastly superior to anyone in Labour. Whenever I've seen him up against a Labouriste , he's reduced them to mince meat.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,693
    antifrank said:

    Michael Gove is certainly bright, can express himself with panache and espouses an intellectual right-wing Conservatism that tickles the Telegraph's G spot. But he looks like a constipated frog (this is extremely important, unfortunately), has no strategic vision and makes no attempt to reach out to those not already convinced by his arguments.

    He would be a quite terrible choice for the Conservatives for their next leader and most Conservatives know it in their heart of hearts. Speculating that he might be the next leader is a bit like going to the pub and casually flirting with the barmaid - a way of expressing forbidden impulses in a way that's never going to get you into trouble.

    isam said:

    How does the "Goves not good looking enough" theory sit alongside Ed Miliband being odds on to be next PM when he is supposedly a geek up against a smoother opponent? or the fact that Gordon Brown, who i voted for despite his lack of charisma/film star looks, wasnt enough of a deterrent to prevent a Tory majority?

    I personally don't think Miliband is that geeky, but apparently that is the public perception.

    I don't think Gove is that geeky either come to that.

    I think that this theory is favoured by political nerds, who assume that because people less clever/interested in political details than them read tabloids and watch reality tv, they will only vote for 'good looking' politicians,

    Although coincidence or not, the facts do tend to back up the theory, at least for the last 20 years. The original evidence - from the Kennedy v Nixon debate - also points that way: the radio listeners gave their verdict to Nixon; the TV viewers gave it to Kennedy.
  • I though the Nixon thing wasn't so much looks as the sweatiness and the vague sense of distrust he generated.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    One thing's for sure. Gove is vastly superior to anyone in Labour. Whenever I've seen him up against a Labouriste , he's reduced them to mince meat.

    Bore off Thornberry... Go back to your phoney outrage

    http://youtu.be/RgXUNYtdgZc
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362



    What on earth could Boris mean?

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m

    Boris Johnson, announcing book on Winston Churchill, declares: 'The point of the ‘‘Churchill Factor’’ is one man can make all the difference.' Subtle!

    Obviously it's a statement of support for the PM
    If he was going to make a statement of support for the PM, his book would have been called the Caesar factor, the greatest leader of all time.
    pah, Caesar Schmeasar, the Queen of Bythinia wouldn't survive one of Silvio's bunga bunga parties
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362



    What on earth could Boris mean?

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m

    Boris Johnson, announcing book on Winston Churchill, declares: 'The point of the ‘‘Churchill Factor’’ is one man can make all the difference.' Subtle!

    Obviously it's a statement of support for the PM
    If he was going to make a statement of support for the PM, his book would have been called the Caesar factor, the greatest leader of all time.
    pah, Caesar Schmeasar, the Queen of Bythinia wouldn't survive one of Silvio's bunga bunga parties
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited June 2013
    @david_herdson Well quite. This has been looked at by psychologists also, and good-looking candidates do seem to have a substantial advantage over their less-attractive opponents.

    I did list two other major drawbacks to Michael Gove as a possible Conservative leader. Those are just as important.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269



    What on earth could Boris mean?

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m

    Boris Johnson, announcing book on Winston Churchill, declares: 'The point of the ‘‘Churchill Factor’’ is one man can make all the difference.' Subtle!

    Obviously it's a statement of support for the PM
    If he was going to make a statement of support for the PM, his book would have been called the Caesar factor, the greatest leader of all time.
    pah, Caesar Schmeasar, the Queen of Bythinia wouldn't survive one of Silvio's bunga bunga parties
    Caesar: the leader who got assassinated by his friends? That really would have been subtle!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,374
    edited June 2013



    What on earth could Boris mean?

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m

    Boris Johnson, announcing book on Winston Churchill, declares: 'The point of the ‘‘Churchill Factor’’ is one man can make all the difference.' Subtle!

    Obviously it's a statement of support for the PM
    If he was going to make a statement of support for the PM, his book would have been called the Caesar factor, the greatest leader of all time.
    pah, Caesar Schmeasar, the Queen of Bythinia wouldn't survive one of Silvio's bunga bunga parties
    I'm fairly certain someone with the moniker the Queen of Bithynia would fit right in at one of Silvio's parties.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,693
    antifrank said:

    Michael Gove is certainly bright, can express himself with panache and espouses an intellectual right-wing Conservatism that tickles the Telegraph's G spot.

    This I would agree with.
    antifrank said:

    But he looks like a constipated frog (this is extremely important, unfortunately),

    I'm not sure I'd use quite that phraseology but the general point is not without merit
    antifrank said:

    has no strategic vision

    There I think you greatly underestimate him. He has plenty of strategic vision. Just because there is a profusion of tactics doesn't mean that they're not in support of that vision (endless initiatives also make it harder for the opposition to focus).
    antifrank said:

    and makes no attempt to reach out to those not already convinced by his arguments.

    Again, that's not quite true. He attempts to reach out to them by convincing them that he's right. He's happy to have the debate. What he's not interested in is getting into extended discussions, negotiations and consultations that will just result in things changing at a glacial pace, if at all, as the unions - who have all the time in the world, knowing that the government doesn't - oppose everything and debate every detail.
    antifrank said:

    He would be a quite terrible choice for the Conservatives for their next leader and most Conservatives know it in their heart of hearts. Speculating that he might be the next leader is a bit like going to the pub and casually flirting with the barmaid - a way of expressing forbidden impulses in a way that's never going to get you into trouble.

    'Terrible' is overdoing it but I don't think he'd be the right choice. One of the main reasons, however, is one that's barely been mentioned today: party management. Gove has given little impression of being a team player, which a party leader has to be. To be fair, he's not really needed to show that and probably has needed to be quite the opposite. Still, until he's shown himself more able to be so, I wouldn't consider him as a future leader.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,374
    edited June 2013
    I hope you all appreciated the subtle Caesar reference in the thread header.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    If Tapestry's around, on the day the Labour Campaign for a Referendum launches with a grand total of two former ministers:
    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4954071/Ed-Milibands-MPs-warn-him-Brits-must-get-EU-referendum.html
    ...one of the former ministers died.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/10096849/Lord-Gilbert.html

    This should put paid to any remaining doubts anybody had about whether Ed Miliband is ruthless enough to lead the OWG.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2013

    antifrank said:

    Michael Gove is certainly bright, can express himself with panache and espouses an intellectual right-wing Conservatism that tickles the Telegraph's G spot. But he looks like a constipated frog (this is extremely important, unfortunately), has no strategic vision and makes no attempt to reach out to those not already convinced by his arguments.

    He would be a quite terrible choice for the Conservatives for their next leader and most Conservatives know it in their heart of hearts. Speculating that he might be the next leader is a bit like going to the pub and casually flirting with the barmaid - a way of expressing forbidden impulses in a way that's never going to get you into trouble.

    isam said:

    How does the "Goves not good looking enough" theory sit alongside Ed Miliband being odds on to be next PM when he is supposedly a geek up against a smoother opponent? or the fact that Gordon Brown, who i voted for despite his lack of charisma/film star looks, wasnt enough of a deterrent to prevent a Tory majority?

    I personally don't think Miliband is that geeky, but apparently that is the public perception.

    I don't think Gove is that geeky either come to that.

    I think that this theory is favoured by political nerds, who assume that because people less clever/interested in political details than them read tabloids and watch reality tv, they will only vote for 'good looking' politicians,

    Although coincidence or not, the facts do tend to back up the theory, at least for the last 20 years. The original evidence - from the Kennedy v Nixon debate - also points that way: the radio listeners gave their verdict to Nixon; the TV viewers gave it to Kennedy.
    I understand your point but am not wholly convinced... Maybe I'm letting personal view get in the way, but...

    The Nixon/Kennedy example could just as easily be a comparison of the type of person who listens to the radio against someone who watches tv.

    How do you explain Brown not getting hammered by Cameron? The Clegg factor maybe?
    How about Miliband being odds on for next PM despite supposed geekiness?

    I don't think the public are as shallow when it comes to politics as people think..

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Is there anyone here of a theological bent who knows how 7 arch angels became 3 and why those 3 were picked?
This discussion has been closed.