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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Final Survation poll of the year sees Lib Lab Con all up an

SystemSystem Posts: 11,706
edited December 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Final Survation poll of the year sees Lib Lab Con all up and UKIP down

The changes are from the Survation poll in early November, so no evidence of a post Autumn Statement slump for the Tories, however with less than five months to go, neither the Tories or Labour will be happy with their share of the vote.

Read the full story here


Comments

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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited December 2014
    Hello, a rare first.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited December 2014
    If anyone could be bothered, a thread on the changes on the main betting markets from this time last year might be worth doing? Easy enough to get the data from oddschecker

    Could combine it with the changes in the polls and see if they match
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,608
    Nick Sparrow ex boss of ICM has done a guest piece for PB tomorrow, make sure you don't miss it. I've read it, and it is very interesting
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,574
    Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser writes:

    'Australia should not embrace America, but preserve itself from Washington’s reckless overreach.'
    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-australias-dangerous-ally-11858

    No doubt a tinfoil wearing Putin lover.
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    AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Yawn.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,460
    Fieldwork was 18-19th?

    Ooops, will need to add to ELBOW week-ending 21st then, and just leave Populus and YG as their own "mini-ELBOW" for this week.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,460
    Broken, sleazy UKIP and Others on the slide?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sparrow ex boss of ICM has done a guest piece for PB tomorrow, make sure you don't miss it. I've read it, and it is very interesting

    Any hints on what it's about?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sparrow ex boss of ICM has done a guest piece for PB tomorrow, make sure you don't miss it. I've read it, and it is very interesting

    Excellent, Nick Sparrow is a top bloke.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    On topic: Con 30% and UKIP 21%? Anyone who'd forecast that combination two years ago would have been regarded as a complete nutcase.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,608
    edited December 2014
    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sparrow ex boss of ICM has done a guest piece for PB tomorrow, make sure you don't miss it. I've read it, and it is very interesting

    Any hints on what it's about?
    Opinion Polls
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Polls vs Bets: I just had a look at oddschecker. For every Glasgow seat, Labour is odds on favourite ! The polls say, Labour will win a handful of seats. The SNP are probably piling up votes in the North and Central regions. Linlithgow, Inverclyde have all showing Labour favourites ? So how do we take the polls ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sparrow ex boss of ICM has done a guest piece for PB tomorrow, make sure you don't miss it. I've read it, and it is very interesting

    Any hints on what it's about?
    Opinion Polls
    Truly shocking!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2014
    surbiton said:

    Polls vs Bets: I just had a look at oddschecker. For every Glasgow seat, Labour is odds on favourite ! The polls say, Labour will win a handful of seats. The SNP are probably piling up votes in the North and Central regions. Linlithgow, Inverclyde have all showing Labour favourites ? So how do we take the polls ?

    Read the wise words of the great antifrank, the chap who (almost alone) got GE 2010 in Scotland spot-on:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2014/12/testing-boundaries-2-labour-vs-snp.html
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Glasgow, I could understand. But in Edinburgh, the SNP are favourites only in Edinburgh West. The rest have Labour. Someone must let Shadsy know about the polls.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,460
    edited December 2014
    What's the difference between Table 4 and Table 5? Published VIs seem to be from Table 4.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Mirror-VI-Christmas-Tables.pdf
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,608
    edited December 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    What's the difference between Table 4 and Table 5? Published VIs seem to be from Table 4.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Mirror-VI-Christmas-Tables.pdf

    I think in Table 5 Survation have made an adjustment for the spiral of silence.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,460
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sparrow ex boss of ICM has done a guest piece for PB tomorrow, make sure you don't miss it. I've read it, and it is very interesting

    Any hints on what it's about?
    Opinion Polls
    Truly shocking!
    Damn! For a moment I thought it might have been about musical references :)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,460
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    What's the difference between Table 4 and Table 5? Published VIs seem to be from Table 4.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Mirror-VI-Christmas-Tables.pdf

    I think in Table 5 Survation have made an adjustment for the spiral of silence.
    Thanks. So they really should have quoted the Table 5 figures?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,901
    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/110413/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_december_2014.html
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,608
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    What's the difference between Table 4 and Table 5? Published VIs seem to be from Table 4.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Mirror-VI-Christmas-Tables.pdf

    I think in Table 5 Survation have made an adjustment for the spiral of silence.
    Thanks. So they really should have quoted the Table 5 figures?
    For consistency, I think they used table 4.

    Survation constantly review their methodology, so this is them testing the waters.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/110411/the_financial_times_tuesday_23rd_december_2014.html
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,608
    Crikey Danny Alexander must be really in trouble in his seat or is launching his leadership bid six months early.

    George Osborne has been accused by his Liberal Democrat deputy of planning the “wilful destruction” of key public services if the Conservatives win next May’s general election.

    Danny Alexander, a loyal ally of the Chancellor since the Coalition was formed in 2010, said Mr Osborne would make £60bn of unnecessary cuts by 2020. Claiming that his Treasury boss wants to “shrink the state”, he warned that even deeper cuts would be needed to deliver the Tories’ planned “unfunded” £7.2bn income tax reduction.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/danny-alexander-interview-osborne-savaged-by-his-closest-ally-in-the-coalition-9942987.html
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    GreengageGreengage Posts: 21
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Con 30% and UKIP 21%? Anyone who'd forecast that combination two years ago would have been regarded as a complete nutcase.

    I was continually ridiculed for stating UKIP would break through on here. Like I am now ridiculed for saying UKIP must go Green if it wants to win more seats.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    It looks to me as though the Lib Dems are finally taking off the gloves and hitting the Tories where it hurts. About time, of course.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crikey Danny Alexander must be really in trouble in his seat or is launching his leadership bid six months early.

    George Osborne has been accused by his Liberal Democrat deputy of planning the “wilful destruction” of key public services if the Conservatives win next May’s general election.

    Danny Alexander, a loyal ally of the Chancellor since the Coalition was formed in 2010, said Mr Osborne would make £60bn of unnecessary cuts by 2020. Claiming that his Treasury boss wants to “shrink the state”, he warned that even deeper cuts would be needed to deliver the Tories’ planned “unfunded” £7.2bn income tax reduction.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/danny-alexander-interview-osborne-savaged-by-his-closest-ally-in-the-coalition-9942987.html

    Too late, Danny boy ! You will not get Labour tactical votes. You are doooooooomed !!!!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Greengage said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Con 30% and UKIP 21%? Anyone who'd forecast that combination two years ago would have been regarded as a complete nutcase.

    I was continually ridiculed for stating UKIP would break through on here. Like I am now ridiculed for saying UKIP must go Green if it wants to win more seats.
    Yep. The party that accuses Cameron of having no principles should go for the Guardianista vote.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    bigjohnowls said:

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/110413/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_december_2014.html

    If Danny is George's closest ally in the coalition, things aren't looking good for unity in the Tory party!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like all the predictions of UKIP slipping back to 5% are still in the doghouse.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    I would wager Osborne will hardly be hurt at the actions of his loyal deputy. It's the end game, everyone expected things like this, Alexander needs to defend his own seat, and he's fulfilled his end of the Coalition bargain all this time with a minimum of fuss. The only question for me is how Osborne responds in an official fashion. He can hardly claim credibly that Alexander has been holding him back much or been a terror to work with (well he could, but it's not like that's been something that has been set up, providing fertile ground for the accusation to be believed).

    Probably not enough to save Alexander, but desperate times.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    AndyJS said:

    Looks like all the predictions of UKIP slipping back to 5% are still in the doghouse.

    They've definately gone down a point or two, nowhere near enough. Sunil, do you have a graph for UKIPs ELBOW?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,460
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like all the predictions of UKIP slipping back to 5% are still in the doghouse.

    They've definately gone down a point or two, nowhere near enough. Sunil, do you have a graph for UKIPs ELBOW?
    Look no further :)

    Week-ending 21st, but this was before we knew about Survation

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/546765234917359617
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,460
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 33s33 seconds ago
    Sunil on Sunday ELBOW 21st Dec update including Survation/Mirror: Lab 34.1%, Con 31.5, UKIP 15.3%, LD 7.6%

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/547541620699430912
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I can't see how these tactics are going to help the Lib Dems. It just invites the question "if you hate what they're doing so much, why have you been in government with them so long?"
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,460
    Revised figures for the Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 21st Dec, including Survation/The Mirror:

    Lab 34.1% (+0.5)
    Con 31.5% (-1.2)
    UKIP 15.3% (nc)
    LD 7.6% (+0.1)

    Lab lead 2.6% (+1.7)

    Revised take-homes:

    * Highest score for Lab since mid-October
    * Tories down a bit
    * UKIP unchanged however
    * LDs up a touch
    * Whither crossover?

    Mini-ELBOW for Xmas week to follow soon!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    Surbiton The Tories won 13% in Alexander's seat in 2010, 5% behind the SNP and 9% behind Labour, he will need some of their votes too
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited December 2014
    Danny565 said:

    I can't see how these tactics are going to help the Lib Dems. It just invites the question "if you hate what they're doing so much, why have you been in government with them so long?"

    No other tactic has worked - staying out of the news, getting in to the news, being good coalition partners, being bad coalition partners - but I would suspect it's about doing enough to permit some waverers the wiggle room to justify to themselves voting LD tactically again. Like, "I hate what the Tory government has done, but my local LD MP has spoken out against the future Tory plans and they had only worked with the Tories before when it was absolutely necessary and now it isn't, so even if they are only one step removed from a Tory now, that's one step better than a Tory getting in".

    Changing leader would have been slightly more effective I would have thought, there's more chance of someone going "I vowed never to vote LD again even if it let in a Tory, but that was under Clegg, so with him out the way maybe I can consider it if necessary" than the current differentiation attempts, but in either case, even if there is minimal to zero actual effect from such tactics, doing nothing will only result in catastrophe anyway - it's at the point where even those who might consider voting LD could end up not bothering as their collapse is so bad even what were safer seats look up for grabs, so LDs may vote tactically rather than people voting for them tactically.

    As for the specific point you raise, that's a possibility, but then that is also part of coalition politics in general anyway, even if in this country we are not used to it. Unless a formal pact is involved, surely any coalition government in other countries argue "We've done a great job in government with X, but they are terrible and you should elect just us next time so we don't have to work with those people" and then promptly work with them again if circumstances call for it. So it seems a silly tactic, it is a silly tactic, but it is always inevitable to some extent I would say.

    Merry night and a good christmas to all.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Bit of bubbly before take off. See you on the other side (of the Atlantic) PB!
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Rather surprising Survation Scotland crossbreak - Lab 48% - SNP 27%.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,170
    Poll showing support for the Euro across the EU, looks like the Czech Republic, Poland, Bulgaria, Sweden and Denmark could join the UK in a non-eurozone EU outer tier
    http://imgur.com/o8k5NOe
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    The Scottish figures look silly, which means the Others -3 is probably wrong, but overall the poll fits the narrative of a modest (but no longer tiny) Labour lead. Table 5 downweights 2010 non-voters by 70% - marginally hurts UKIP but doesn't do much else.

    How shall we survive with a whole week without any polls? The torment!
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    NickPalmer said:

    The Scottish figures look silly, which means the Others -3 is probably wrong, but overall the poll fits the narrative of a modest (but no longer tiny) Labour lead. Table 5 downweights 2010 non-voters by 70% - marginally hurts UKIP but doesn't do much else.

    How shall we survive with a whole week without any polls? The torment!

    Well if the Scottish part is to blame for others -3 being wrong where do you think that 3 has gone?
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    The Survation Scottish cross break is not just "surprising" as Justin says but "silly" as Nick Palmer points out. The result perhaps of a tiny sample and too much Christmas spirit!

    How do we know this for sure? Well the poll overlaps with the Survation full Scottish poll (48-24 SNP over Labour) and not one but two YouGov cross breaks for Scotland which show substantial SNP leads in line with every other proper poll and decent sub sample. The last of these was polled on the 21st and 22nd. Survation on the 18th and 19th.

    It might have been better, given that it was available, for Survation to use their own Scottish poll for their sub sample in their UK poll since their cross break has cause a minor bias of the rest of the UK poll.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sparrow ex boss of ICM has done a guest piece for PB tomorrow, make sure you don't miss it. I've read it, and it is very interesting

    You tease, you.
    isam said:

    If anyone could be bothered, a thread on the changes on the main betting markets from this time last year might be worth doing? Easy enough to get the data from oddschecker

    Could combine it with the changes in the polls and see if they match

    Great. Thanks for volunteering.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sparrow ex boss of ICM has done a guest piece for PB tomorrow, make sure you don't miss it. I've read it, and it is very interesting

    Any hints on what it's about?
    Opinion Polls
    They're all crap?
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Greengage said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Con 30% and UKIP 21%? Anyone who'd forecast that combination two years ago would have been regarded as a complete nutcase.

    I was continually ridiculed for stating UKIP would break through on here. Like I am now ridiculed for saying UKIP must go Green if it wants to win more seats.
    That must have been a hell of a first post.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    saddened said:

    Greengage said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Con 30% and UKIP 21%? Anyone who'd forecast that combination two years ago would have been regarded as a complete nutcase.

    I was continually ridiculed for stating UKIP would break through on here. Like I am now ridiculed for saying UKIP must go Green if it wants to win more seats.
    That must have been a hell of a first post.
    It's Tap - he's changed his username to stop the lizards finding him.

    But we're smarter than that...
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all posters and lurkers on PB, wherever they may be.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2885792/Labour-hit-100-000-homes-mansion-tax-day-one-Shadow-Chancellor-orders-Treasury-start-drawing-plans-hit-better-homeowners.html
    Labour’s mansion tax will be about £3,000 a year for homes in the £2million to £3million bracket. Experts say an average charge of £11,000 a year will need to be levied to raise the £1.2billion a year Labour predicts.
    Indeed.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Nick Sparrow's article is now up

    It raises serious questions about whole basis of online polling
This discussion has been closed.