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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It could be that GE2015 is determined by Scottish IndyRef NO voters who are currently undecided about GE15
What is striking is the very different don’t know levels on Westminster voting intention between those who voted YES in the referendum and those who VOTED NO.
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http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/basildon-south-and-east-thurrock/winning-party
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2883625/Ukip-slams-pathetic-phone-app-featuring-Nicholas-Fromage-kicking-immigrants-white-cliffs-Dover-win-racism-points.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30573385
You say "Christmas tree," I say "Giant make-your-own kitty toy." #OccupyTree
BBC think driver had heart attack.
@Easterross glad to read your cousin was safe.
I wouldn't have thought very many people in the wider public would have noticed, and that fewer still will remember come May
I have done it myself on occasion... trying to be smart when somebody is being ironic makes you feel very foolish doesn't it?
For those wot missed it yesterday:
Well, there might well be a couple of stray polls leading into Christmas week [update: yes, such as Populus], but this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of The Week) for the 12 polls with field-work ened-dates between the 14th and 20th Dec, total sample size 14,091:
Lab 34.2% (+0.6)
Con 31.6% (-1.1)
UKIP 15.0% (-0.4)
LD 7.5% (nc)
Lab lead 2.6% (+1.7)
Take-home:
* Highest Labour lead since 12th October. Though it may seem to be an outlier, three weeks ago (30th Nov), Lab did have a lead of 2.1%.
* Tories down quite a bit, but UKIP also down a touch.
* Whither crossover?
Was it all you were hoping for?
In graphical form:
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 21 Dec
Final Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for 2014: Lab 34.2%, Con 31.6%, UKIP 15.0%, LD 7.5%.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/546765234917359617
Labour weekly leads in ELBOW since 17th August: Latest and final Lab lead for 2014 = 2.6%.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/546769961419804673
UKIP candidate complains a ‘homosexual donkey’ tried to rape his horse
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/12/22/ukip-candidate-complains-a-homosexual-donkey-tried-to-rape-his-horse/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula-one/30580526
I think he's half-right.
But I have to disagree that there will be any significant anti UKIP tactical voting in UKIP targets, and this is why...
A UKIP win that costs Labour a seat helps the Tories and vice versa... why would one vote for the other when, in probably the closest election for decades, every seat is vital?
In the end, if it's UKIP or Labour (Thurrock/Grimsby), Tories will vote UKIP, Tory or stay at home... If its UKIP or Tory, (Clacton/Rochester) Labs will vote UKIP, Labour or stay at home
Lib Dems may vote tactically to keep UKIP out.. but many previous Lib Dems were NOTA who were just voting for "Not Tory or Labour", and some of those types vote UKIP anyway now.
The lesson from those is that for Labour supporters, beating the auld enemy (the Conservatives) is far more important than beating UKIP, and vice versa.
Remind me not to drive over any bridges you design!
You have a point about what the UK should have done with oil revenues. Shame you had to ruin it by letting your imagination run wild.
We have not found a bottom yet.
This is the problem with the economic left. They just find arguments and use them without pausing even for a moment to think about whether the numbers come close to working.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/dagenham-and-rainham/winning-party
http://www.iraqinews.com/arab-world-news/terrifying-poll-wide-sympathy-isis-among-britain-youth/
A bunch of them will be radical leftists, but, even so, that must be a huge share of the young British Muslim population. But, of course, all immigrant groups integrate with time, right?
Perhaps Mr Putin has less campaign funds to spread around.
Meantime
Ukip councillor Rozanne Duncan in South Thanet has been expelled for allegedly bringing the party into disrepute with “jaw dropping” remarks in a television interview thats not even been broadcast yet
Good of UKIP to give us this pre christmas game.
and
Ukip MEP, Janice 'ting tong' Atkinson, who has criticised “feckless families” is being pursued for more than £2,000 in unpaid child support.
"I cant deny that perception exists, or that it gives me pause for thought at times."
It does me too. However, I am comfortable in my own skin and with my own views which are not racist, misogynist or any other 'ist or 'phobe. Then I look at where the UKIP support is coming from in my own small area of the world.
There are two primary groups. Those from the three bedroomed semi-developments of the early 1970s and those from the council estate. I think both groups can be summarised as being truly fed-up with our political class, who they see as ignoring them and theirs (and, with regard to the Council Estate, with very good reason). They have had enough they really and truly are totally pissed-off with politicians who are not on their side. UKIP is giving them a voice. OK, it might be a cry of pain and anger but someone is listening.
Furthermore, there are signs that things are starting to change as a result. For example, would Cameron have conceded his referendum pledge without UKIP attracting his voters and so starting to make progress? I doubt it somehow. It is now respectable to question whether open-door immigration is a good idea whereas not long ago it was impossible without being labelled, mainstream parties are now having to face up to the facts.
Will the people I meet be put off by some thinking them, "misogynist, homophobic, racists"? I doubt it very much. They are more likely to see the people who are doing the labelling as belonging to the the class that pissed them off in the first place.
Mine is a small place and I would hate to extrapolate my experience but I strongly suspect others in other areas may find the same thing. The idea that UKIP will make a a great breakthrough in May I think is a fantasy, six seats and they will have done stunningly well, but UKIP is having an effect, giving a voice to those that the likes of Cameron would prefer to ignore, and influencing the debate.
Question: Is it allowed to have intercourse with a female slave who has not reached puberty? Answer: You may have intercourse with a female slave who hasn't reached puberty if she is fit for intercourse. However, if she is not fit for intercourse, it is enough to enjoy her without.
"Before Satan sows doubt among the weak-minded and weak-hearted, remember that enslaving the kuffa [infidels] and taking their women as concubines is a firmly-established aspect of Sharia."
And it's happening in practice:
"Janar", aged 20, tells me: "There was one 11-year-old girl. They beat her a lot. They gave her to one fighter and then to another one from Mosul. We heard that she killed herself later, in Mosul."
Let's hope that such a mentality never comes to our towns and cities.
We had it when claims of Asian rape gangs in Rotherham were first made, we had it when the UKIP was accused of 'euracism' and we had it whenever the Conservatives tried to point out endless immigration might not be a good thing.
It's been overused and diluted to the point where such accusations are, I would suggest, likelier to piss people off with the accuser than the accused.
The poll by Ipsos Mori and the Guardian detects a definite sense of mild, if unfocused pessimism.
Just about the only thing those surveyed were definitely upbeat about are the prospects of Sherlock actor Cumberbatch, with more than half of people (56%)thinking he will an Academy awared next year for his role as Alan Turing in The Imitation Game.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/datablog/2014/dec/22/cumberbatch-oscar-and-life-on-mars-britons-predictions-2015
....Labour may be alarmed that almost three quarters, or 73%, think it likely the party will poll fewer votes than the SNP in Scotland at the general election. Unhappily for the ambitions of Boris Johnson, two thirds of the country (65%) think it is fairly or very unlikely that he will become leader of the Conservative party in the coming year.
Can we all agree at least that she was not a conservative and would not enjoy today's Conservative party?
They run in herds like buffalo on the Serangeti.
Given her pro EU actions she'd definitely be a member of the party of IN
Peter Morrison and Cyril Smith raped boys. Chris Huhne was jailed for perverting the course of justice. Lords Taylor and Hanningfield were jailed for fiddling their expenses, along with four Labour MP's. Lord Watson set fire to a hotel, when drunk. Mike Hancock sexually harassed a mentally handicapped constituent. Councillors in Rotherham ignored child rape. The list of scandals in the "mainstream" is ever-lengthening.
But, you think referring to "ting tong" is so much worse.
Yes I am aware of the irony of me complaining about some one else's puns
Historically inaccurate and utter bollocks.
http://www.serengeti.org/bigfive_buffalo.html
However I do not see how pointing to one loony excuses countless others. You could point to Hamilton - but he finds a ready hole in UKIP. Farage finds little to talk about in economics so he can happily peddle immigration and give out his racist dog whistles to prop up his party.
Nevermind, you just keep chucking the labels around, old boy. It probably makes you feel better and it stops you having to think about why the Conservative party is doing so damn badly.
UKIP are in the same class
OK, you can perhaps excuse them simplifying things, but this really wasn't very good.
What part of that story will appeal to the Academy voters?
Nick Denys@betapolitics·51 mins51 minutes ago
In todays Ukip news: 1) Farage complains about a Ukip paradoy app. 2) Ukip candidate complains that a gay donkey tried to rape his horse.
Nick Denys@betapolitics·39 mins39 minutes ago
What did that Ukip lady say to get deselected? Everyday the tension is builds as we learn of new things Ukip candidates ARE allowed to say.
Also, I don't have the figure to hand as the HMRC seem to have taken down the webpage but at the end of Callaghan North Sea oil tax revenue wasn't even 1 billion pounds.
He has all the sex appeal of a pint of milk.
The BBC say ''Rozanne Duncan is understood to have used highly racially offensive language during filming for a BBC documentary to be broadcast in February.''
I'm pleased that UKIP have expelled her. But really what they would have preferred was she had kept her opinions to herself. This is what they have told their candidates. Buit she is the sort of person UKIP is attracting and UKIP and Farage have gone out of their way to talk their language.
I'm glad this woman and various other bigots have upped and left the tory party, because times have moved on. If there are any left then they can shove off too for me; I hope there are not any. The problems of immigration can do without a racist solution.
Sadly Farage weasels every way to stick up for the likes of Kerry Smith. He toils to make racism respectable. It stinks.
Crowds are flocking to see The Imitation Game, the laughable new film about computer genius Alan Turing. I think they are mainly women besotted with Benedict Cumberbatch, though some men may enjoy the sight of Keira Knightley got up as a 1940s intellectual sexpot.
It’s the usual hopeless attempt to recreate the past by dressing the cast in acres of tweed, making them all smoke and renting some ancient cars. But the ending is genuinely horrible. The homosexual Turing is shown robbed of his mental powers by hormone drugs supposedly intended to make him ‘normal’.
We can all shudder at this stupid and wrong treatment. But it is easy to condemn the follies of the past. At the time, fashionable opinion believed Turing’s ‘chemical castration’ was a humane alternative to prison.
What similarly stupid things do we believe today? How about this? Despite growing medical doubts (a report this week said it had more to do with drug marketing than medicine), we dope huge numbers of children with pills very similar to illegal amphetamines. This mass-doping is justified by the suspect ‘diagnosis’ of an alleged complaint called ‘ADHD’. If Alan Turing were a child now, I think it pretty likely that his ‘odd’ behaviour would lead him to be drugged in this way, killing his special talents.
It seems to me very probable that, as you read this, some potential genius is having his life blighted, forced by smiling adults to swallow pills to make him ‘normal’. We can see this was wrong in 1953. Why can’t we see it is wrong now?"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2845812/PETER-HITCHENS-night-fleet-Tory-snake-oil-tankers-sailed-Rochester-sank.html#ixzz3MeX4wzlP
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRzKUVjHkGk
Who said it?
Yeah right.
But you do run with some rum coves.
(of course, wanting to be an MP should be a key determinant of whether someone should be disbarred from seeking elected office, but that's another matter entirely)
You alienate your natural supporters and then wonder why they won't vote for you.
I like Ian Somerhalder - he is sex on legs and isn't a tiny bit bothered about going for a scene. In Tell Me You Love Me he's erm up for it.imdb.com/name/nm0813812/?ref_=nmmi_mi_nm The most convincing on-screen kisser I've ever seen.
And Matthew McConahey imdb.com/name/nm0000190/ - he's so cool/gunslinger. I went out with a chap like that and was tongue-tied the whole time.
Iain Duncan Smith MP @IDS_MP 9m9 minutes ago
RIP Joe Cocker. Adored ‘Common People.’ (the song, not actual common people) pic.twitter.com/MFTkDPl4oM
Comments which follow it are a hoot.