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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that could be key to how the LDs might do better in their own seats than the national numbers suggest
Earlier in the month a big divide appeared between the huge joint university initiative, the British Election Study, and Lord Ashcroft’s polling of individual CON facing LD held seats. The former pointed to disaster while aggregate data from latter’s latest batch found that the yellows were 9% ahead.
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Over many years I have wondered about this specific spectacle. How Labour Governments lose elections with the nation on its knees millions unemployed '" there is no money left" This then requires hard work and horrible decisions in the interim period by whoever takes over to try and restore some stability even sanity......for example observing Parliament and in my 60 years normally the right of centre taking the hard decisions.......
No sooner is this done as now then. We all vote Labour and let the left back in to start all over again to continue the destuction.
You know if Wales and Stafford had happened on the right wing watch then they would have been been unelectable for 100years. We are in a position not even 5 years after the worst abuses in the NHS voting for more that happened pre 2010. Labour remain the most trusted party on the NHS despite a Labour minister being the only one ever to privatise an NHS hospital.
The British truly then do get the governments they deserve.....
Have a happy Christmas all and my last post until after Christmas Day
( unless of course Ed achieves a 10% lead).
Merry Christmas to all on PB
I have just read the last few threads and, well, would like to comment about a late hound associated with 617.
Whilst I despise the re-writing of history there does appear some clamour for a rebalanced correctivity. As the original film was in B&W I would like to profor a suitable compromise: Call the Labrador 'Chalkie'....
I met three nurses the other day who in the course of conversation told me they did voluntary work at the food bank and they'd each be doing one day over the christmas period.......
Audreyanne warned yesterday not to follow the polls at this time of year because 3,000.000 people with children at private school will be abroad on holiday....
99 out of a 100 people would guess the nurses would be LABOUR. 100 out of 100 would guess the 3,000,000 will be TORY (indeed audreyanne thought so).
So there's your answer. It's all about image. The Tories are prudent and selfish Labour sleep with the angels but are profligate.........
...and as a majority want our leaders to have more noble values than we have ourselves the Tories are screwed.
Polls aren't random unweighted samples that can be impacted by such things; there is consistent statistical filter applied to the raw data to ensure each poll is, if not 100% correctly weighted, at least consistently weighted when compared with the firms other output.
All the evidence of the last couple of weeks points to a slight firming of the labour position. It's likely that they are 2% - 3% ahead.
Clock is ticking.....
"A powerful cross-party move to end the ‘intolerable’ delay in the publication of the Chilcot Inquiry report into the Iraq War is being mounted by MPs who suspect it is part of a plot by allies of Tony Blair.
The group of MPs, led by Tory David Davis and former Lib Dem Minister Norman Baker, are planning to table a Commons debate early in the New Year calling for Sir John Chilcot’s incendiary £10million report to be released before the General Election."
Ed Miliband does seem to have gained slightly over the last week or two. I think because he has not been featuring much on the news or telly. Labour do better when he is hidden.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/local-government-shakeup-british-cities-seek-to-raise-own-taxes-and-go-it-alone-9938087.html
"Chris Murray, director of Core Cities, is now preparing a report on the potential for independent city states to make their case, due to be published with the right-leaning think-tank ResPublica next year.....
However, devolution to the core cities could be held back by the problem of what to do with England's second-tier conurbations, all of which are too small to lead a city region or wider economy.
A report by Public Service Intelligence, a body that organises data, information and news on public-sector organisations, published in early December, identifies 16 "lost cities of English devolution", including Torbay, Milton Keynes, Luton, Bedford, Derby and Warrington. "Ironically, given that devolution to England is being led by the needs of cities, it is a final group of 16 'lost cities' covering 3.5 million people and with populations all below 400,000 that stand in the way of devolution for all, as they are hard to group into viable regions," the report states. "Rejoining such cities with their neighbouring counties [as an independent state?] is an option, but likely to be unsatisfactory in some or all cases."
LOL
"PETER HITCHENS: Forget 'evil' Putin - we are the bloodthirsty warmongers
Now I seem surrounded by people who actively want a war with Russia, a war we all might lose. ....
Until a year ago, Ukraine remained non-aligned between the two great European powers. But the EU wanted its land, its 48 million people (such a reservoir of cheap labour!) its Black Sea coast, its coal and its wheat....
So first, it spent £300 million (some of it yours) on anti-Russian ‘civil society’ groups in Ukraine....
Then EU and Nato politicians broke all the rules of diplomacy and descended on Kiev to take sides with demonstrators who demanded that Ukraine align itself with the EU.....
Stupid, ill-informed people nowadays like to compare Mr Putin with Hitler. I warn them and you that, if we succeed in overthrowing Mr Putin by unleashing hyper-inflation in Russia, we may find out what a Russian Hitler is really like. And that a war in Europe is anything but fun."
Even if the Tories were demonstrating this fabled economic competence they delude themselves they have, Tories forget that no one voted for the State slashing agenda which is now driving Osborne and the small clique of small-state ideologue obsessives at the heart of the Tory Party and rightwng media.
That's why there's no swingback to a deeply unloved Party.
And let's not go on to mediaeval knights with Brooklyn accents.
I watched a clip from a B movie last year where the band of rampaging vikings included a black, teenage and wisecracking girl who seemed to be the unofficial leader. And spoke modern American slang.
Dr Fox ... "Labour do better when he is hidden"
Labour would do even better if he was taken away and shot.
Cameron knows this
Winning elections is about being a broad church, appealing to a range of voters, including if possible the middle, both Cameron and Miliband have managed to piss off their core, and hence they are both struggling and mostly bickering over the same Guardianista vote. Election wins for the main parties have mostly be decided in the past by who got the C2 demographic, "White Van Man", and he is mostly with UKIP at the moment.
Neither the US government nor the EU can "unleash" hyper inflation on Russia. To think that we have this power (or, for that matter, that to manipulate the price of oil) is economic illiteracy of the highest order.
His most important point is that the Russians have far more ability to tolerate severe hardship than we do, which will be our undoing.
Agree with Hitchens regarding the EU having a significant role in Ukraine's current woes, but the inflation is caused by low oil prices, not the sanctions.
Incidentally, the Archsocialist is apparently trying to a bridge a gay marriage divide in the Church of England. I thought that was a rare area of agreement, and they just weren't having it?:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30562505
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2014/12/20/ukip-supporters-look-to-vote-tactically-come-may/
"UKIP SUPPORTERS LOOK TO VOTE TACTICALLY COME MAY
"Polling by Lord Ashcroft has shown that a significant percentage of UKIP supporters are planning on voting tactically when it comes to their specific constituency....."
"it looks like there will be a drop in support in key constituencies where the party is not polling with the front runners."
Bad news for Ms Lucas it seems.
An interesting viewpoint, but you forget the "Best for me" viewpoint which is also fairly strong. Labour may be less competent on economics, but are seen as being more likely to look after me if I fall on hard times. Yes, they spend far too much time on social engineering and telling you what to think, but they count as an insurance policy. Not a good one, but the one with a track record.
LDs don't count because they've never had their hands on the levers of power in the modern age.
ie the oil price crash has been engineered to damage Russia.
In fact, I wonder whether it’s at least because they are more likely to have genuine accidents ..... sports injuries and so on ..... as much as the suggested reason, that they can’t get access to GP’s.
Incidentally, I’ve just had a look at our local GP’s website, which gives available appointment slots. This week there’s one available, on Monday morning, although plenty in the week beginning 29th.
The Syrian situation has been going on for 3-4 years now. More recently, ISIS has been more abhorrent than the Assad regime. So why try economic warfare against Russia, over Syria, in the last couple of months? That doesn't stack up.
* Chasing the Kippers and going on, and on about the EU did for their centrist vote.
* The 2012 Top rate tax cut ended any Tory claim that "we're all in this together".
* The failure to deliver promises on immigration, the deficit and the NHS did for their competence.
And they should have used the LDs more and built up the coalition. Instead many Tories outriders have been knocking their own govt.
Might your post epitomise Labour delusion?
Immigration is a failure, but the deficit (too hard too fast = not fast enough, say Labour) was affected by the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. As for the NHS, funding has been flat, Labour promised to cut it in real terms. A completely unfair argument, and one the media should have called out.
I'm greatly amused you're knocking the blues for attacking the Coalition, given the Lib Dem Business Secretary has ordered his civil servants not to co-operate with the Treasury and half the Lib Dems' utterances are about how they vetoed evil Tory plans to eat babies.
It's probably not fair to compare 2010 with 2015, because of the wildly differing situation. Namely:
strong SNP
strong UKIP
weak Conservatives/Labour
seriously wounded Lib Dems
a coalition government
economy not in imminent risk of implosion
If the LDs are so weak, there is 23% of the centrist vote their for the taking. Cameron has completely ignored this opportunity. In fact he has almost actively alienated that vote. It is now (unsurprisingly) opposed to the coalition. But their was nothing inevitable about that.
As for UKIP, IMO they are as much the creation of Cameron as anyone else. Instead of starving them publicity by talking about domestic issues, he pours petrol on them by talking regularly about the EU and insulting them.
The last 12 months...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/43tf2c23qylkbjt/YouGov polls 12 months to 21 December 2014.jpg#
Since the 2010 general election...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/vdyv3y4mk9a2hm2/YouGov Polls since 2010 GE as of 21 December 2014.jpg#
Make of them what you will
UKIP is not just ex-Conservatives or traditionalist Conservatives. It's those who lack faith in the establishment, and those who are socially conservative but basically leftwing (WWC sorts). Cameron could've handled his party much better, but there are some Conservative backbenchers with no strategic sense of self-control who would've been serial rebels regardless of who led the party.
Meanwhile, Labour's unnecessary and ill-conceived attempt to create itself a Scottish fiefdom very nearly destroyed the UK (and may yet), and they oppose equality for England, instead desiring to balkanise an ancient land to serve their own petty political ambitions.
I know it's your hobby horse, but your comments about the balkanisation of England are OTT. Perfectly reasonable to consider the government of England regionally. It works well in London.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/11305686/Volatile-Russia-could-be-bad-news-for-everyone.html
I disagree with you on Scotland leaving. The current situation (ie Holyrood) has institutionalised division between Scotland and the rest of the UK, something which would happen within England if the short-sighted and narrow-minded got their way with regional assemblies.
How can England have equality with Scotland? We need equal powers. Unless you're proposing varying income tax rates in Yorkshire and Lancashire, different approaches to the NHS and education in Kent and Surrey, then regional assemblies cannot deliver that.
Most Englishmen want an English Parliament. If we then have regional assemblies beneath that, fine. But England is one land and must have its own voice, not be carved into pathetic little assemblies to suit the political convenience of Labour and the Lib Dems.
I hope that my interest in classical history gives me some perspective on the rise and fall of nations, but what I find baffling is that people look at the Scottish Parliament, look at the near separation of the UK, look at the divisiveness, and then think "We should introduce that to England." England isn't the property of political pygmies to be cut up to provide little fiefdoms. It's one land and needs one Parliament.
Radical thinking and proposals needed.
Lets start with Turkey:
Steve @UKIP_Voter 25m25 minutes ago
UK loses bid to opt out of benefits deal with Turkey http://dailym.ai/1CfCGD6 @MailOnline For God's sake, EU referendum now @David_Cameron
"Ed Miliband does seem to have gained slightly over the last week or two. I think because he has not been featuring much on the news or telly. Labour do better when he is hidden."
I think you're right. Labour work better as an image. The Tories by contrast are faces.....Thatcher Gove Tebbit McVey. The PR people are going to play a big part in the upcoming election. Labour have to make it about values. The Tories have to make it about hard choices
Quick question for the Europhiles, are you genuinely happy with rulings like this?
It reminds me of Gordon Brown who despite the problems facing the nation, spent every last sou,
I doubt the greens will feature mutch at the GE, not if anyone has any sense, they just need to look at the damage done in Brighton.
"The group of MPs, led by Tory David Davis and former Lib Dem Minister Norman Baker, are planning to table a Commons debate early in the New Year calling for Sir John Chilcot’s incendiary £10million report to be released before the General Election."
I wonder which party (if any) a damning report will affect? The class of 2000 are long gone and if anyone is seen as son of Blair it's Cameron. I think most people have to pinch themselves to remember that Tony wasn't a Tory.
On the other hand, the proposals for reform of the Houe of Lords were approved by the Tory-majority Cabinet. These were not Lib Dem proposals, which would have been much more radical, but Coalition Government proposals. They ought to have received the backing of all the Conservative MPs, but as has been observed, Mr Cameron is weak and does not have very much control over the Conservative Party.
And where did you find that information about the Business Secretary? Ae you a Government insider after all? It sounds to me like just another smear coming out of the Tories´spin machine, trying it on to see how much they can get away with.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/testing-boundaries-2-labour-vs-snp.html
I should be very interested to know by what mechanism he thinks hyper inflation might be unleashed.
Blaming others for your own misfortunes - the Americans are manipulating the price of oil and/or unleashing hyper inflation - is pretty much the calling card of every tin pot dictator in history.
Perhaps what I see is an artefact of how politics is presented - When I was first aware of party politics, in the 1980s, there was a broad range of individuals on both sides who would be up for an argument on the TV news or wherever - a politically aware person could easily name a number of leading personalities on each side.
That doesn't seem as much the case now, possibly because each party controls its messaging more centrally, and more carefully. Possibly also because, for all the noise, the arguments are smaller and narrower now than then - Party preferences, rather than worldviews.
What was that about the lost leader, Bonnie Prince Charlie?
And that's because Cameron and Osborne have acted as the Blair/Brown Tribute Act in office. On social and cultural issues, they're indistinguishable from the last government. Objectively, they're as pro-EU as the last lot, and they've lost control over immigration. They thought their supporters had nowhere else to go. That's turned out well for them.
Labour cannot deny its history if it wants to be taken seriously. Blair is an intriguing figure (now despised because of his mid east wars) but on domestic issues he was very astute. He won three elections and was in power longer than any other leader. He is the only Labour Leader to have won an election in 40 years.
Labourites tend to try to wipe out memories of every government since Attlee, then accuse kippers of fifties nostalgia!
Any disagreement or movement from the party line is deemed a split, an act of rebellion, a failure of leadership and so on. The media's desire to get scalps has forced parties to be disciplined beyond the point that's healthy in a democracy, and reduced the variety within parties.
And that a lot of disgruntled LDs, at least among the non RedLDs, were Green, D/K, or W/V!
Whereas the mature way to look at it is as debate, a good way of refining and improving ideas and policy.
The demand for total attendant is pathetic, and media generated.
Individual MPs should support issues in a way that is best for the electors they represent. A party manifesto should only cover major national issues, giving freedom reason and purpose to back bench mps to argue as they see fit in many areas.
Much more parliamentary anarchy.
"ICM are the Gold Standard".
ICM gives Labour a 5 point lead.
" Its a rogue"
OH NO IT ISNT
OH YES IT IS
TNS give Labour a 7 point lead.
"Look at the trend not individual polls"
Where's swing back? IT'S BEHIND YOU
Opinium also give Labour a 7 point lead
"it's a rogue, Tory voters have all gone skiing"
But a 1 in 20 rogue poll AND a 1 in 20 rogue poll AND a 1 in 20 rogue poll all happening at the same time from three different pollsters isn't likely, its a trend.
OH NO IT ISN'T
OH YES IT IS
On Mr Murphy - he has refused to join an all-party campaign re the rescue centre closure even though it is a Labour-instigated proposal. It's obviously not a campaign he is against on principle, so I'm genuinely puzzled by this. I suppose he could be taking the Bain Principle to new lengths (always wait to see what the SNP do and then do the opposite), but that sort of thing doesn't go down well with the voters.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-snubs-labour-appeal-for-cross-party-bid-to-save-rescue-centre.26133743
"And that's because Cameron and Osborne have acted as the Blair/Brown Tribute Act in office. On social and cultural issues, they're indistinguishable from the last government. Objectively, they're as pro-EU as the last lot, and they've lost control over immigration "
You're making them sound attractive. Stop it!
"Coalition Government proposals. They ought to have received the backing of all the Conservative MPs"
That is a very novel view of our constitution. No MP is obliged to vote for anything. He or she may have a problem with their party if the vote against a three-line whip but in law and custom there is nothing that means they should vote for a proposal agreed by the cabinet.
In the specific case of the recent bill to reform the Lords nobody actually voted against it because Clegg did bot bring it before the House. To bring forward proposals for HoL reform was in the Coalition Agreement and the Conservative members of the government fulfilled their part of the bargain. There was no agreement to vote for whatever old rubbish those proposals might turn out to be..
Today's LD 2010 retention at 21% is a low for 2014.
I wonder why Murphy has refused to join in the Rescue Centre appeal. He has no connections with defence, which might have meant specialist knowledge or contacts.
Jim Murphy is, as our host says, a serious politician and the SNP will find him a harder proposition than his predecessors. But he has some very strong currents flowing against him. The task may be too much in the short term for anyone.
I must say the the Marr programme today, was full of main parties propaganda in the form of Ken Clark and Peter Mandelson, with the usual derision of UKIP. Oh well thats Xmas on the BBC!
I should have said, instigated by a Labour backbencher. But internal disagreements can't be the explanation either can it?
There is a phrase for people like you. For sanity it is [MODERATED]....
With all due respect, I do not think your opinions on sanity are valid!
This will make it illegal to drive with 16 prescription and abuse drugs over a (miniscule) limit whether it impairs your driving or not. I think this will ignite the whole police state/libertarian issue just as the election campaign ramps up and might well drive many libdem voters in particular to the Greens.
One of the drugs (morphine via codeine) is in many common over the counter medicines. There will be a defence if you have been allowed by a doctor to drive while taking as prescription drug or followed the leaflet instructions
The law is also being changed to allow roadside drug testing machines for the banned substances.
The limits are set at as near zero as they can get away with
"In March 2013, the department took expert advice from a medical panel on the potential drug limits that the government should consult on. The department accepted most of the recommendations made by the panel and has consulted on limits that are a ‘zero tolerance’ approach to deter people from taking drugs and driving.
The limits to be included in the new regulations are not set at 0 as drugs taken for medical conditions can be absorbed in the body to produce trace effects."
The banned list:
Illicit drugs
benzoylecgonine, 50 µg/L
cocaine, 10 µg/L
delta–9–tetrahydrocannabinol (cannabis and cannabinol), 2 µg/L
ketamine, 20 µg/L
lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD), 1 µg/L
methylamphetamine, 10 µg/L
methylenedioxymethaphetamine (MDMA – ecstasy), 10 µg/L
6-monoacetylmorphine (6-MAM – heroin and diamorphine), 5 µg/L
Generally prescription drugs
clonazepam, 50 µg/L
diazepam, 550 µg/L
flunitrazepam, 300 µg/L
lorazepam, 100 µg/L
methadone, 500 µg/L
morphine, 80 µg/L
oxazepam, 300 µg/L
temazepam, 1000 µg/L
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/public-approval-for-driving-limits-for-16-drugs
material.
On the Ashcroft marginals polling there is as yet no electoral proof that answers to the specific constituency question will prove valid.
English National Universal swing figures at the time of the GE, will in my view provide the best guide to party seat totals,just as it did in 2010.
Some days ago you mentioned that hospital admissions were up by, from memory, 5,000, when compared to 2013. Could you expand on that or point me to a source. I presume we are talking about 5,000 admissions a day but I am wondering what that is as a percentage, how significant that extra number is and why it should have happened/be happening.
Any help you can give will be gratefully received.
Driving while under the influence of alcohol has long been illegal, about time this was defined in terms of other intoxicants. Let the toxicologists set the levels.
I have BUPA but have no reason to use it. Funded and a waste; but, like the NHS I am sure that - to some - it has a purpose....
My source was The Health Service Journal
http://m.hsj.co.uk/
You may need to subscribe, but it was referenced elsewhere.
I think mostly it is a reversion to historic trend, after an unusually quiet and mild winter last year. Global warming has its benefits!
I fail to see how a sensible road safety measure could discourage people from voting in a particular way, although I believe that it’s alleged that some people intend to vote UKIP in the belief that they will support relaxation of the ban on smoking in pubs.
If you spun me round and round in 2003, transported me to today, and asked me what government the UK was living under, I'd answer Blair/Brown without hesitation.
Let me make this simple for you.
I am pro-EU: I believe that the existence of the EU is a good thing and I agree with some of the things that the European Commision does but not all.
I am pro-UK: I believe that the existence of the United Kingdom is a good thing and I agree with some of the things that the Westminster government does but not all.
I am pro-Lincolnshire Country Council: I believe that the existence of my local county council is a good thing and I agree with some of the things that Lincolnshire County Council does but not all.
I am pro-Lincoln City Council: I believe that the existence of a city council in Lincoln is a good thing and I agree with some of the things that Lincoln City Council does but not all.
Sometimes, indeed often, I disagree with the actions of one or more of these institutions but I don't want to leave any of them.
LOL
However can I now add how refreshing I have found the contributions from Gadfly and antifrank this morning.
Question to Gadfly would it not be possible to produce the same YouGov daily charts for Scotland using the cross breaks each day. I know they are just sub samples and thus vulnerable to daily error but they seem remarkably consistent. How about a chart with a five day moving average. Has anyone done this?
Point to anti-frank. I found your analysis of Scottish politics (http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/testing-boundaries-2-labour-vs-snp.html) very informative. Indeed by far the best thing I have read on the overall situation. I don't normally place bets on politics but this might be an exception.
I know that it takes all sorts to make a website but am I alone in finding this material fundamentally more interesting than the anti-Salmond diatribes.
The Labour of today openly despises the very concept of nationhood, and are willing to betray their own country and people to advance their political interests, be that through gerrymandering, constitutional rigging, legislative force or mass immigration. They are less economically illiterate (intellectually, most senior Labour politicians probably now understand socialism doesn't work) but have to remain just as profligate - if not more so - to maintain their union funding and voter base.
I wouldn't vote Labour in a million years. They are professionals at ruining a nation, politically, socially, culturally and economically.
In terms of the best value betting - I'm focusing on William Hill's SLAB seats market. Having slashed their odds yesterday for the 0-15 seats, they've cut again this morning. For example 11-15 seats was cut from 20/1 to 10/1 last night and is now 7/1. Other cuts - 0-5 125/1 to 66/1 to 40/1 and 6-10 66/1 to 20/1 to 18/1.
"It was mostly serious analysis and so taken seriously - one is allowed the odd joke. But just to satisfy my curiosity, to what is it a reference please??"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHs2coAzLJ8
As I understand it THC for one hangs around for some time, why make it illegal for someone to drive who smoked a spliff a few days ago (yes I know the spliff is itself illegal but individual cannabis use is largely tolerated).
What is the effect likely to be if I take a few co-codamols for a cold? This is in danger of being a law I cannot comply with as i do not have the knowledge - I know that if I drink a pint and a half I am likely to be over the limit, so I don't. How many co-codamols can I take and drive?
Right, off for the day. Enjoy.
Anyway, I hope that answer is OK for you in so much as it gives you an idea of my opinions. I know you'll not agree - and that's fine. Sorry if I don't reply again today but I need to get some last minute Christmas shopping done.