politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What looks like being the final polling weekend of the year – rolling blog
We are almost there – the final polls of the 2014. Generally there’s a complete break over the holiday period and the polling schedule returns to normal in the New Year.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
To be frank I don't know why the pollster and newspapers bother. Whatever they show will be meaningless.
Probably Labour ahead. Tories with their private school kids are away enjoying holiday warmth Seriously though this is such a pointless time to be polling.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Whatever your view of Gove's changes his dismissal of an entire profession as the "blob" was singularly stupid - especially given the total numbers of teachers in the country. He showed himself to be a political cretin and had to go. One of Lynton's smarter decisions.
Labour has opened up a seven-point lead over the Conservatives in the latest Opinium/Observer poll, which also shows a sharp fall in the personal approval ratings for the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage.
The survey will be a boost for Labour and its leader, Ed Miliband, who has endured a torrid time since the autumn conference season as the political parties prepare to enter a general election year.
It is the second poll in a week showing that the Tories have lost ground since chancellor George Osborne’s autumn statement earlier this month, in which he spelled out the need for several more years of deep cuts to public spending.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
All the reports I hear is that teachers might well work 12 hours at a weekend, marking, preparation and the huge amounts of bureacratic paperwork can easily do that, not to mention things like out of hours sports, school plays etc.
The teachers unions seem to be far too weak on this. They really ought to take a book out of the rail unions and instruct their members not to do this work unless they are paid for it.
Another area the teachers unions should intervene IMHO is with pupil assaults. Expecting teachers to be in a room with known violent pupils is unreasonable and I would have thought breaches the HASAW regulations, unions should make clear that if a teacher refuses to work on the grounds of safety they will back them to the hilt.
Ultimately the general worklife of a teacher seems to depend on the headteacher, if the head is a good leader then it can be a nice job, if the head is weak or a bully, its awful. Schools are a bit like small companies in that way.
To be frank I don't know why the pollster and newspapers bother. Whatever they show will be meaningless.
Probably Labour ahead. Tories with their private school kids are away enjoying holiday warmth Seriously though this is such a pointless time to be polling.
Labour has opened up a seven-point lead over the Conservatives in the latest Opinium/Observer poll, which also shows a sharp fall in the personal approval ratings for the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage.
The survey will be a boost for Labour and its leader, Ed Miliband, who has endured a torrid time since the autumn conference season as the political parties prepare to enter a general election year.
It is the second poll in a week showing that the Tories have lost ground since chancellor George Osborne’s autumn statement earlier this month, in which he spelled out the need for several more years of deep cuts to public spending.
People may not particularly care about politics over the festive period, but I fail to see why polling should be less accurate than at any other time and I feel sure there are as many rich London lefties away skiing or at Sandy Lane, Barbados as there are among their Tory counterparts. Given tonight's lead from Opinium and assuming YouGov don't come up with something totally contradictory, which I doubt they will, then Sporting will need to be very brave should they decide to stick with their most recent GE seats quote for the Tories (so far as I am aware) of 279 - 285. More likely they'll take the soft option of keeping this market "suspended" (aka closed), which is rather unfortunate for those of us who have already invested and find ourselves unable to trade. A big black mark for Sporting is due methinks ...... don't offer markets which you're not prepared to trade most of the time, apart from those short periods immediately prior to the release of polling figures.
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
I so vividly recall your accurate forecasts of Tory gains in Scotland back in 2010.
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
I so vividly recall your accurate forecasts of Tory gains in Scotland back in 2010.
and presumably also my much criticised but accurate prediction of LibDem losses when most PBers were predicting 80-100 LibDem seats and I said 50 was more likely. If you want to believe Ed Bland is going to do anything other than go down to as heavy a defeat as Michael Foot, good luck to you.
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
We must hope that Labour are happy with Miliband. The poll shows the low tory vote the same. If it means anything it shows Labour doing better at UKIP expense. This may be coincidence. Frankly even as a Tory (or perhaps because I am a tory) I hope not, since it will indicate that the 'WWC' are not the neanderthal morons that Farage and co think they are.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Whatever your view of Gove's changes his dismissal of an entire profession as the "blob" was singularly stupid - especially given the total numbers of teachers in the country. He showed himself to be a political cretin and had to go. One of Lynton's smarter decisions.
The "blob" bears as much a relationship to an individual teacher as the "military-industrial complex" does to a footsoldier.
People may not particularly care about politics over the festive period, but I fail to see why polling should be less accurate than at any other time .
Well, for a start 3.5 million people travel abroad at this time of year which in itself should give you pause for thought. I don't mind betting that nearly 100% of those are voters too so that in itself should give you pause for thought. Then loads of others head away from home.
I don't know either the evidence that they are more heavily Tory than Labour voters, but I'd put a sizeable sum that they are, for reasons that really don't need to spelled out … do they?
Additionally, throw in other factors: office parties, hangovers, shopping, people spending too much, festivities, drunkenness, arguments, office closures, factories shutting, lack of routines etc. etc. etc. etc.
But perhaps the most compelling reason is than bank holidays and breaks ALWAYS seem to throw up odd polls. We have seen it time and time again. So experience says, just don't trust holiday polling.
15th January, or even beginning of February, is when I think we will come back on polling track.
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
I so vividly recall your accurate forecasts of Tory gains in Scotland back in 2010.
and presumably also my much criticised but accurate prediction of LibDem losses when most PBers were predicting 80-100 LibDem seats and I said 50 was more likely. If you want to believe Ed Bland is going to do anything other than go down to as heavy a defeat as Michael Foot, good luck to you.
Come to think of it your Referendum forecast was spot-on as well!
As I said, voters are looking for the best opposition party, they already have made their mind up about the government and what to vote for the party who bashes it most or is most effective against the government.
A reminder - in this 7% poll lead for Labour, it's Lab up, Tories unchanged, UKIP DOWN 3%
and yet this Labour cheerleader is pleased - is he confused which party he's in?
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·12 mins12 minutes ago “@georgeeaton: Labour seven points ahead in new Opinium poll .... swing away from Tories since the Autumn Statement.” <- more George please!
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
I so vividly recall your accurate forecasts of Tory gains in Scotland back in 2010.
and presumably also my much criticised but accurate prediction of LibDem losses when most PBers were predicting 80-100 LibDem seats and I said 50 was more likely. If you want to believe Ed Bland is going to do anything other than go down to as heavy a defeat as Michael Foot, good luck to you.
At this point before the 83 election the Tories where around 8-12% ahead, not behind as they are now.
People may not particularly care about politics over the festive period, but I fail to see why polling should be less accurate than at any other time .
Well, for a start 3.5 million people travel abroad at this time of year which in itself should give you pause for thought. I don't mind betting that nearly 100% of those are voters too so that in itself should give you pause for thought. Then loads of others head away from home.
I don't know either the evidence that they are more heavily Tory than Labour voters, but I'd put a sizeable sum that they are, for reasons that really don't need to spelled out … do they?
Additionally, throw in other factors: office parties, hangovers, shopping, people spending too much, festivities, drunkenness, arguments, office closures, factories shutting, lack of routines etc. etc. etc. etc.
But perhaps the most compelling reason is than bank holidays and breaks ALWAYS seem to throw up odd polls. We have seen it time and time again. So experience says, just don't trust holiday polling.
15th January, or even beginning of February, is when I think we will come back on polling track.
Perhaps this has already been through the PB wringer but checking the details of the Observer poll I came across their poll of the public's predictions of 2015. The man or woman on the Clapham omnibus says:
There will be another hung parliament after the general election – 38%
One or more countries leave the EU – 23%
UKIP will join either Labour or the Conservatives in a coalition government – 20%
David Cameron will be the Prime Minister after the general election – 17%
Prince Harry will get engaged – 16%
The 3rd one seems to have been ruled out before the ink on the poll was dry, but then again a week is a long time....
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
I so vividly recall your accurate forecasts of Tory gains in Scotland back in 2010.
and presumably also my much criticised but accurate prediction of LibDem losses when most PBers were predicting 80-100 LibDem seats and I said 50 was more likely. If you want to believe Ed Bland is going to do anything other than go down to as heavy a defeat as Michael Foot, good luck to you.
At this point before the 83 election the Tories where around 8-12% ahead, not behind as they are now.
Labour could easily win footesque numbers of seats and the tories still be struggling to get a majority. Labour are only 49 seats ahead of their 1983 figure (258 against 209). SNP could get labour virtually to 1983 levels without the tories winning a single seat off them.
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
We must hope that Labour are happy with Miliband. The poll shows the low tory vote the same. If it means anything it shows Labour doing better at UKIP expense. This may be coincidence. Frankly even as a Tory (or perhaps because I am a tory) I hope not, since it will indicate that the 'WWC' are not the neanderthal morons that Farage and co think they are.
Even a massive Ed-sceptic like myself must now except that he will not be defenestrated before May. I bet and I lost.
Cameron must be having sleepless nights deciding whether to risk the leader debates...
People may not particularly care about politics over the festive period, but I fail to see why polling should be less accurate than at any other time .
Well, for a start 3.5 million people travel abroad at this time of year which in itself should give you pause for thought. I don't mind betting that nearly 100% of those are voters too so that in itself should give you pause for thought. Then loads of others head away from home.
I don't know either the evidence that they are more heavily Tory than Labour voters, but I'd put a sizeable sum that they are, for reasons that really don't need to spelled out … do they?
Additionally, throw in other factors: office parties, hangovers, shopping, people spending too much, festivities, drunkenness, arguments, office closures, factories shutting, lack of routines etc. etc. etc. etc.
But perhaps the most compelling reason is than bank holidays and breaks ALWAYS seem to throw up odd polls. We have seen it time and time again. So experience says, just don't trust holiday polling.
15th January, or even beginning of February, is when I think we will come back on polling track.
Hmm ..... I'm not convinced, not at all. For one thing those would-be 3.5 million would be Tories, every last one of them a voter according to you, wouldn't have departed for those foreign shores by the time this Opinium poll had been concluded.
I see tonight's YouGov poll takes us pretty well back to the recent averages which surprises me not a jot.
Plugging in the approval figures to the L&N model gives a 6.1% central forecast Tory vote lead and a seat lead of 39.
About a 90% chance of a Tory seat lead, but a Hung Parliament rises to around 84% chance.
Is this the first time that your L&N train model doesn't give the Tories a majority?
Not at all. It estimates probabilities, not certainties. I usually plug in the IPSOS numbers, and with those the Tories have been odds-on for a majority since August 2014.
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
It made for a good laugh waiting at the traffic lights.
Had lunch today at a restaurant with an 11 feet by 18 feet HD TV. It's an actual TV, not projection. It's apparently the largest HD TV in the southeast.
They show sports events and music dvds, and have a great sound system.
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
We must hope that Labour are happy with Miliband. The poll shows the low tory vote the same. If it means anything it shows Labour doing better at UKIP expense. This may be coincidence. Frankly even as a Tory (or perhaps because I am a tory) I hope not, since it will indicate that the 'WWC' are not the neanderthal morons that Farage and co think they are.
Even a massive Ed-sceptic like myself must now except that he will not be defenestrated before May. I bet and I lost.
Cameron must be having sleepless nights deciding whether to risk the leader debates...
What I want is a general election campaign. So I do not want any leader debates. I did not want them last time when all the money suggested Brown was 'mental'. I do not want them this time even when increasingly I am convinced that there is something strange and Brown-like going on in Farage's head. Totally irrespective of what or who these debates might help, I do not want them.
A reminder - in this 7% poll lead for Labour, it's Lab up, Tories unchanged, UKIP DOWN 3%
and yet this Labour cheerleader is pleased - is he confused which party he's in?
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·12 mins12 minutes ago “@georgeeaton: Labour seven points ahead in new Opinium poll .... swing away from Tories since the Autumn Statement.” <- more George please!</p>
A reminder - in this 7% poll lead for Labour, it's Lab up, Tories unchanged, UKIP DOWN 3%
and yet this Labour cheerleader is pleased - is he confused which party he's in?
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·12 mins12 minutes ago “@georgeeaton: Labour seven points ahead in new Opinium poll .... swing away from Tories since the Autumn Statement.” <- more George please!</p>
We must also ask just what is the economics that Carswell supports?
A reminder - in this 7% poll lead for Labour, it's Lab up, Tories unchanged, UKIP DOWN 3%
and yet this Labour cheerleader is pleased - is he confused which party he's in?
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·12 mins12 minutes ago “@georgeeaton: Labour seven points ahead in new Opinium poll .... swing away from Tories since the Autumn Statement.” <- more George please!</p>
A reminder - in this 7% poll lead for Labour, it's Lab up, Tories unchanged, UKIP DOWN 3%
and yet this Labour cheerleader is pleased - is he confused which party he's in?
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·12 mins12 minutes ago “@georgeeaton: Labour seven points ahead in new Opinium poll .... swing away from Tories since the Autumn Statement.” <- more George please!</p>
We must also ask just what is the economics that Carswell supports?
He seems to be a convert to big government spending, and opposing a balanced budget. I had him down as more sensible than that.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Indeed, 12 hours would just be Sunday's workload.
I don't believe this for a second. I've shared living quarters with teachers, and none of them do a full day at the weekend, let alone a 12 hour one. The only way it can possibly take that long is if you're spending most of the time watching TV and ice cream while you occasionally glance down to mark a paper.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Whatever your view of Gove's changes his dismissal of an entire profession as the "blob" was singularly stupid - especially given the total numbers of teachers in the country. He showed himself to be a political cretin and had to go. One of Lynton's smarter decisions.
I agree it was politically silly, but it's amazing how the criticism for Gove's reforms has now shrunk to him being a bit rude. His comments about "the blob" will be shortly forgotten, while his improvements to education will benefit the UK for decades. He's restored much needed rigour to the system.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Whatever your view of Gove's changes his dismissal of an entire profession as the "blob" was singularly stupid - especially given the total numbers of teachers in the country. He showed himself to be a political cretin and had to go. One of Lynton's smarter decisions.
I agree it was politically silly, but it's amazing how the criticism for Gove's reforms has now shrunk to him being a bit rude. His comments about "the blob" will be shortly forgotten, while his improvements to education will benefit the UK for decades. He's restored much needed rigour to the system.
Gove has a polite yet very combatative approach. His loyalty to the party when moved from education will have impressed old school Tories who really really dislike disloyalty.
I can see him as next leader, though suspect that his marmite politics may prevent him from being PM.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Indeed, 12 hours would just be Sunday's workload.
I don't believe this for a second. I've shared living quarters with teachers, and none of them do a full day at the weekend, let alone a 12 hour one. The only way it can possibly take that long is if you're spending most of the time watching TV and ice cream while you occasionally glance down to mark a paper.
- or if the teacher has Attention Deficit disorder? :-)
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Indeed, 12 hours would just be Sunday's workload.
I don't believe this for a second. I've shared living quarters with teachers, and none of them do a full day at the weekend, let alone a 12 hour one. The only way it can possibly take that long is if you're spending most of the time watching TV and ice cream while you occasionally glance down to mark a paper.
As a teacher I can say with some certainty that Gove's main problem was his unfounded belief in his own ability and judgement. Teaching requires so many skills and attributes which are difficult to measure and Gove was concerned with regression to a mythical standard which never existed.He was unsuited to the task and he has been replaced by an equally unsuitable candidate. Tonight's poll in the Observer is a good poll, let's hope the recovery continues for the sake of our schools.
As a teacher I can say with some certainty that Gove's main problem was his unfounded belief in his own ability and judgement. Teaching requires so many skills and attributes which are difficult to measure and Gove was concerned with regression to a mythical standard which never existed.He was unsuited to the task and he has been replaced by an equally unsuitable candidate. Tonight's poll in the Observer is a good poll, let's hope the recovery continues for the sake of our schools.
People may not particularly care about politics over the festive period, but I fail to see why polling should be less accurate than at any other time .
Well, for a start 3.5 million people travel abroad at this time of year which in itself should give you pause for thought. I don't mind betting that nearly 100% of those are voters too so that in itself should give you pause for thought. Then loads of others head away from home.
I don't know either the evidence that they are more heavily Tory than Labour voters, but I'd put a sizeable sum that they are, for reasons that really don't need to spelled out … do they?
Additionally, throw in other factors: office parties, hangovers, shopping, people spending too much, festivities, drunkenness, arguments, office closures, factories shutting, lack of routines etc. etc. etc. etc.
But perhaps the most compelling reason is than bank holidays and breaks ALWAYS seem to throw up odd polls. We have seen it time and time again. So experience says, just don't trust holiday polling.
15th January, or even beginning of February, is when I think we will come back on polling track.
Hmm ..... I'm not convinced, not at all. For one thing those would-be 3.5 million would be Tories, every last one of them a voter according to you, wouldn't have departed for those foreign shores by the time this Opinium poll had been concluded.
.
Well you wouldn't be, would you.
Lots of my friends left the country on or around 12th December when the private schools broke up, some of them are abroad for the whole holiday others for a week, back this weekend.
Did they ever get round to that rule change allowing ambulance based paramedics to administer Activase and TNKplase?
If so, then 19 minutes for stroke victims is absolutely not a problem - the critical point is the drugs are administered with a 30 minutes window from the event
Did they ever get round to that rule change allowing ambulance based paramedics to administer Activase and TNKplase?
If so, then 19 minutes for stroke victims is absolutely not a problem - the critical point is the drugs are administered with a 30 minutes window from the event
A reminder - in this 7% poll lead for Labour, it's Lab up, Tories unchanged, UKIP DOWN 3%
and yet this Labour cheerleader is pleased - is he confused which party he's in?
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·12 mins12 minutes ago “@georgeeaton: Labour seven points ahead in new Opinium poll .... swing away from Tories since the Autumn Statement.” <- more George please!</p>
A reminder - in this 7% poll lead for Labour, it's Lab up, Tories unchanged, UKIP DOWN 3%
and yet this Labour cheerleader is pleased - is he confused which party he's in?
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·12 mins12 minutes ago “@georgeeaton: Labour seven points ahead in new Opinium poll .... swing away from Tories since the Autumn Statement.” <- more George please!</p>
We must also ask just what is the economics that Carswell supports?
Carswell was disloyal to his party years before joined ukip. I once called him Labour's useful idiot and got myself banned.
As a teacher I can say with some certainty that Gove's main problem was his unfounded belief in his own ability and judgement. Teaching requires so many skills and attributes which are difficult to measure and Gove was concerned with regression to a mythical standard which never existed.He was unsuited to the task and he has been replaced by an equally unsuitable candidate. Tonight's poll in the Observer is a good poll, let's hope the recovery continues for the sake of our schools.
Your post is more revealing than you intended.
You are concerned about the schools.
Gove is concerned about the pupils
Yes, Gove can now concern himself with the unruly pupils behind him.
As a teacher I can say with some certainty that Gove's main problem was his unfounded belief in his own ability and judgement. Teaching requires so many skills and attributes which are difficult to measure and Gove was concerned with regression to a mythical standard which never existed.He was unsuited to the task and he has been replaced by an equally unsuitable candidate. Tonight's poll in the Observer is a good poll, let's hope the recovery continues for the sake of our schools.
Your post is more revealing than you intended.
You are concerned about the schools.
Gove is concerned about the pupils
I take your point and I do not wholly agree with the commentator, but it is not unreasonable to associate the term schools with pupils. You are of course right it is pupils who should be challenged and improved and of course educated. I do see Labour pandering more to unions systems the establishment and dogma rather than pupils. So the support for the polls by roserees is misplaced especially if she(?) sees the recovery as a green light to waste money.
And it is dogma by Gove that he was too fond of, which is a shame since it clouds all the sensible work he and the govt have done.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Indeed, 12 hours would just be Sunday's workload.
I don't believe this for a second. I've shared living quarters with teachers, and none of them do a full day at the weekend, let alone a 12 hour one. The only way it can possibly take that long is if you're spending most of the time watching TV and ice cream while you occasionally glance down to mark a paper.
I can believe it. When I was a teacher/lecturer, there were definitely folks I worked with who spent that long on it. One boss would regularly email resources/agendas/demands at 1.30 am. Another chap I worked with was seriously good at the teaching, but tended to overprepare for stuff and was a glutton for punishment. He'd record in rigorous detail the thousands of hours he spent on any given project, easily racking up 60-80 hours a week even through the holiday periods. Partly at management's behest, he would create his own resources, from worksheets to interactive software, rather than use a textbook or the very many - usually better - electronic resources that were already* available. Sometimes he'd moan about how stressed he was, sometimes he'd calculate what he'd have earned if he'd been paid at commercial rate for those extra hours, and invariably he'd grouch about all the better jobs he'd been looking at applying to. But in the end he'd just soldier on - think he loved teaching too much for his own good, but if that wasn't why he stayed on then more fool him.
* This was years ago and there's much more stuff out there now, but even then there were quite a lot of Java applets out there for teaching demonstrations. But no, better to code it all from scratch himself... another chap at a school down the road did the same thing, retained copyright on his work, licensed it to other institutions, and eventually sold out for £££ to an edutech company. Sadly my ex-colleague never got the same reward. For a similar amount of thousands-of-man-hours, he produced a system that was "used" by a few dozen students per year. Worse, I got to see the detailed user statistics and most of the carefully crafted simulations were only interacted with by 2 or 3 students, the rest had just glanced at it and moved on...
Did they ever get round to that rule change allowing ambulance based paramedics to administer Activase and TNKplase?
If so, then 19 minutes for stroke victims is absolutely not a problem - the critical point is the drugs are administered with a 30 minutes window from the event
If it is a sufficient window then it's all you need. And if the change allows them to schedule more efficiently and attend just one more incident then that's a good outcome
Did they ever get round to that rule change allowing ambulance based paramedics to administer Activase and TNKplase?
If so, then 19 minutes for stroke victims is absolutely not a problem - the critical point is the drugs are administered with a 30 minutes window from the event
If it is a sufficient window then it's all you need. And if the change allows them to schedule more efficiently and attend just one more incident then that's a good outcome
There is nothing magic about these times, either for these drugs (is there a real difference between 29 min and 31) or for ambulance response times.
What we do know is that every minute counts and delay causes morbidity and mortality.
Is this a sensible form of rationing? That is where the debate should lie.
Incidentally, I'd suggest that an over-conscientious person should avoid working in education. It'd consume them. Ditto for perfectionists, but even more so - they'd end up insanely frustrated into the bargain.
Is it necessary to crank out those hours to be an effective teacher? An ex-colleague of mine used to arrive at work a little before 8 to get all her marking done. Breaks, free slots and lunch were spent doing lesson-planning and admin (she had a lower-middle management role for her sins). She avoided getting drawn in to any activity that didn't have £££ attached - no volunteering for some ad hoc committee, or running school sports or drama or music productions. She would be fastidious though about non-teaching duties that came attached to her management role: mentoring trainees, preparing strategy documents, calculating progress checks etc. If there were no after-school meetings then she'd stay for 30 minutes to sort out reprographics etc for the lessons she'd planned. Then she'd be off home, not much after 4, taking just her handbag with her - she flat-out refused to do any work at home, evenings or weekends. Pile of marking would be left on her desk for the next morning.
Her efficiency was fearsome and few of us - public or private sector - could aspire to it. To achieve it, she pretty much taught straight out of the textbook (and a library of trusted worksheets she'd assembled, though not written herself). But she was an "Outstanding" teacher, both in the (c) OFSTED kind of way and in results obtained (most likely because she was as no-nonsense with the kids as she was with her approach to work), so even when senior management put pressure on that she should be being more "creative" she had the status to ignore it.
I don't think all teachers can work like that. Some subject areas are particularly bad for this. Secondary drama, music and PE come to mind with all the extra-curricular entanglements they bring, and these days they need to spend time marking written work too - even in the PE department! Upper-middle management brings more responsibilities. Primary teachers are less able to "teach from the book". If someone suggests all teachers are working in stakhanovite conditions, it's simply not true. But I've known people who couldn't cope with workload and stress too - and suffered from it. One guy would, regular as clockwork, take a month or more off sick with stress when the coursework marking-glut came round. His colleagues were cynical about it, but the guy looked like a beaten shell of a man on his return. I do hope he quit the job because it wasn't doing him any favours.
'NHS Bosses' not politicians. The bosses being the people who run the ambulances. If you read the Labour 2010 manifesto you will read that they said the NHS now had enough money and would now undertake a £20 billion efficiency programme. health budget 2010 £ 116.9 billion health budget 2015 £ 133.0 billion ... although the last is more likely to be £135 billion since only recently the govt announced an extra £2 billion for the NHS from economies elsewhere.
''Historically, international comparisons show that – in terms of national health care institutions – the NHS is the best in the world.''
That's 8am to 8pm with no work at weekends. And that's self-reported, so I suspect it's actually a little lower, and includes time in front of the TV doing marking casually.
Plus, of course, they get 13 weeks holiday a year. In my experience they probably work about 1-2 of those weeks. But it's still more than twice what most people get.
'NHS Bosses' not politicians. The bosses being the people who run the ambulances. If you read the Labour 2010 manifesto you will read that they said the NHS now had enough money and would now undertake a £20 billion efficiency programme. health budget 2010 £ 116.9 billion health budget 2015 £ 133.0 billion ... although the last is more likely to be £135 billion since only recently the govt announced an extra £2 billion for the NHS from economies elsewhere.
''Historically, international comparisons show that – in terms of national health care institutions – the NHS is the best in the world.''
Well, no.
My sister-in-law, UK resident, this year had to wait over 6 weeks for gall bladder surgery, and didn't know when or where it was to be done, and eventually it was done - with only a couple of days notice - at a private hospital. She had no input as to time or location.
My daughter a couple of months later had to have the same surgery. It was done within 48 hours. She was able to choose where and when - admittedly as she had Obamacare the choices were limited, but as the patient she made the choices.
A couple of years ago I had to have an MRI. My doctor told me the office would make the appointment but it wasn't urgent and they'd tell me where and when. The appointment was the next day. I asked what would have happened if it had been urgent. The response was that in that case they would have sent me immediately for the MRI.
I have no doubt that the doctors and nurses in the NHS are every bit as skilled and dedicated as they are here, but the NHS is simply not set up to be responsive to patients. Here every doctor and hospital knows that patients have a choice and is ready to serve them - the NHS knows you have no choice and offers abysmal service and flexibility.
There is also a big difference in spending. The USA spends 18% of a higher per capita GDP on health, the UK a little over 8%. To a large extent you get what you pay for.
There is also a big difference in spending. The USA spends 18% of a higher per capita GDP on health, the UK a little over 8%. To a large extent you get what you pay for.
It's not quite that simple. I have lived and worked in France, Spain, Denmark, Holland, the UK, Canada and the US. Everywhere is better than the NHS.
The NHS is a monolithic government outfit. In most other countries it isn't.
The percentage of GDP is a canard - it's all about how it's set up. Here the patient is the driver. In the UK it isn't.
I moved from Harrogate to a village outside and was told I'd have to change my doctor because of this. My doctor is my choice not some idiotic regulation requirement.
As long as UKIP win 15/16% Miliband will be PM, Cameron's task, as it has always been, is to get about 5% to switch back to the Tories to get them to about 36/37% and UKIP down to 10% for the Tories to become largest party
Evening all and clearly Opinium wish to compete with ComRes and Survation for the title of most irrelevant pollster. However at least some Labour supporters will believe the nonsense and Ed is safe.
We must hope that Labour are happy with Miliband. The poll shows the low tory vote the same. If it means anything it shows Labour doing better at UKIP expense. This may be coincidence. Frankly even as a Tory (or perhaps because I am a tory) I hope not, since it will indicate that the 'WWC' are not the neanderthal morons that Farage and co think they are.
Even a massive Ed-sceptic like myself must now except that he will not be defenestrated before May. I bet and I lost.
Cameron must be having sleepless nights deciding whether to risk the leader debates...
What I want is a general election campaign. So I do not want any leader debates. I did not want them last time when all the money suggested Brown was 'mental'. I do not want them this time even when increasingly I am convinced that there is something strange and Brown-like going on in Farage's head. Totally irrespective of what or who these debates might help, I do not want them.
I agree. If they happen again the Debates will become institutionalised and difficult to avoid at future elections. X-Factor politics is a bad idea.
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Indeed, 12 hours would just be Sunday's workload.
I don't believe this for a second. I've shared living quarters with teachers, and none of them do a full day at the weekend, let alone a 12 hour one. The only way it can possibly take that long is if you're spending most of the time watching TV and ice cream while you occasionally glance down to mark a paper.
My wife worked for several years as a Maths teacher and regularly worked a 60-70 hour week including evenings and weekends, as did all her colleagues. Some of the extra time was spent lesson planning (perhaps fair enough) but the majority was the absurdly detailed marking and buearacracy that had been imposed by the school who was terrified of not meeting some arbitrary OFSTED criteria. All for a pitiful £35k salary.
Rod Crosby = wrong ÷ by partisan wishful thinking.Computer says ignore.
That would be the same partisan wishful thinking which brought out the trolls when I said Labour would do better than expected in 2010, and was shown to be correct.
For the record, I will almost certainly not be voting either Labour or Conservative in 2015...
The poll for the Sunday Guardian finds big Labour lead.
Would anyone expect anything less?
Sure. We used to joke that the Guardian perversely had the worst polls for Labour and the Telegraph the best. These things move around, but it's actually libellous to suggest that polling institutes rig the figures to suit their clients, and Mike has asked us not to. Stick to questioning the megthodlogy, or claim that Tories are on holiday. Incidentally, the other notable feature of the poll is that the Cameron-Miliband gap shrank by 5.
Audrey's point on that doesn't work, incidentally, unless she argues that not only are more Tories on holiday, but the ones who aren't on holiday are more likely than the others to switch to Labour. Each poll is based on a quota sample of former supporters of each party, so if they're looking for 500 2010 Tories they'll keep looking till they find them - it doesn't make any difference if more of this group (out of the millions for voted Tory) are away, the sampling works anyway.
It's the same issue as when people claim that it's significant that a Populus has more or fewer people representing one group and thus uprated or downrated - that's fine in polling terms unless the ones they find are uncharacteristic.
Tho I suspect most of the Red Kippers would be unfazed by 'poofters' or 'chinkie', unlike the Guardianistas who would be first to board the Outrage bus......
The poll for the Sunday Guardian finds big Labour lead.
Would anyone expect anything less?
Audrey's point on that doesn't work, incidentally, unless she argues that not only are more Tories on holiday, but the ones who aren't on holiday are more likely than the others to switch to Labour. Each poll is based on a quota sample of former supporters of each party, so if they're looking for 500 2010 Tories they'll keep looking till they find them - it doesn't make any difference if more of this group (out of the millions for voted Tory) are away, the sampling works anyway.
Agree - I think at this time of year it may be difficult to get reliable polling data - mainly because even less of the very limited attention the public plays to politics outside election periods is going to be engaged - and whether its Tories in Val d'Isere or the Caribbean or Labour voters in Orlando (or vice versa) thats not going to materially affect the results we get.
I moved from Harrogate to a village outside and was told I'd have to change my doctor because of this. My doctor is my choice not some idiotic regulation requirement.
I believe the current government shanged this so you can now register with a doctor outside the area where you live.
Comments
I accept as a head of department you may work longer hours, but, unless an OFSTED inspection is coming up (yet another reason they should do unannounced visits in my opinion), I can't believe that many teachers work 12 hours at the weekend.
And 8% pay raises are still the national pay scales, agreed by government and the unions.
Probably Labour ahead. Tories with their private school kids are away enjoying holiday warmth
Seriously though this is such a pointless time to be polling.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30560399
Too late for a by election then?
No, he's an MEP, so slot filled automatically.
The survey will be a boost for Labour and its leader, Ed Miliband, who has endured a torrid time since the autumn conference season as the political parties prepare to enter a general election year.
It is the second poll in a week showing that the Tories have lost ground since chancellor George Osborne’s autumn statement earlier this month, in which he spelled out the need for several more years of deep cuts to public spending.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/20/labour-takes-seven-point-lead-farage-opinium-poll
The teachers unions seem to be far too weak on this. They really ought to take a book out of the rail unions and instruct their members not to do this work unless they are paid for it.
Another area the teachers unions should intervene IMHO is with pupil assaults. Expecting teachers to be in a room with known violent pupils is unreasonable and I would have thought breaches the HASAW regulations, unions should make clear that if a teacher refuses to work on the grounds of safety they will back them to the hilt.
Ultimately the general worklife of a teacher seems to depend on the headteacher, if the head is a good leader then it can be a nice job, if the head is weak or a bully, its awful. Schools are a bit like small companies in that way.
As I was saying ...
Phew. Miliband safe.
Lab 33.9%
Con 31.8%
UKIP 14.7%
LD 7.8%
Lab lead 2.1% - joint highest Lab lead since 12th Oct.
Given tonight's lead from Opinium and assuming YouGov don't come up with something totally contradictory, which I doubt they will, then Sporting will need to be very brave should they decide to stick with their most recent GE seats quote for the Tories (so far as I am aware) of 279 - 285.
More likely they'll take the soft option of keeping this market "suspended" (aka closed), which is rather unfortunate for those of us who have already invested and find ourselves unable to trade.
A big black mark for Sporting is due methinks ...... don't offer markets which you're not prepared to trade most of the time, apart from those short periods immediately prior to the release of polling figures.
The poll shows the low tory vote the same. If it means anything it shows Labour doing better at UKIP expense. This may be coincidence. Frankly even as a Tory (or perhaps because I am a tory) I hope not, since it will indicate that the 'WWC' are not the neanderthal morons that Farage and co think they are.
I.e. None at all
I don't know either the evidence that they are more heavily Tory than Labour voters, but I'd put a sizeable sum that they are, for reasons that really don't need to spelled out … do they?
Additionally, throw in other factors: office parties, hangovers, shopping, people spending too much, festivities, drunkenness, arguments, office closures, factories shutting, lack of routines etc. etc. etc. etc.
But perhaps the most compelling reason is than bank holidays and breaks ALWAYS seem to throw up odd polls. We have seen it time and time again. So experience says, just don't trust holiday polling.
15th January, or even beginning of February, is when I think we will come back on polling track.
and yet this Labour cheerleader is pleased - is he confused which party he's in?
Douglas Carswell MP@DouglasCarswell·12 mins12 minutes ago
“@georgeeaton: Labour seven points ahead in new Opinium poll .... swing away from Tories since the Autumn Statement.” <- more George please!
Perhaps this has already been through the PB wringer but checking the details of the Observer poll I came across their poll of the public's predictions of 2015. The man or woman on the Clapham omnibus says:
There will be another hung parliament after the general election – 38%
One or more countries leave the EU – 23%
UKIP will join either Labour or the Conservatives in a coalition government – 20%
David Cameron will be the Prime Minister after the general election – 17%
Prince Harry will get engaged – 16%
The 3rd one seems to have been ruled out before the ink on the poll was dry, but then again a week is a long time....
About a 90% chance of a Tory seat lead, but a Hung Parliament rises to around 84% chance.
Cameron must be having sleepless nights deciding whether to risk the leader debates...
I see tonight's YouGov poll takes us pretty well back to the recent averages which surprises me not a jot.
Guess we'll find out in January. Safe to say the coming 2-3 months will be crunch time.
UKIP ........................... 15%
LD + Greens + SNP .... 17%
voice 1 - I think Santa Claus is Jewish.
voice 2 - What makes you think that?
voice 1 - Who else would work Christmas?
It made for a good laugh waiting at the traffic lights.
Had lunch today at a restaurant with an 11 feet by 18 feet HD TV. It's an actual TV, not projection. It's apparently the largest HD TV in the southeast.
They show sports events and music dvds, and have a great sound system.
Totally irrespective of what or who these debates might help, I do not want them.
2, 1, 0, 5, 2
Average = 2
That's Lab's best week with YouGov for 9 weeks.
The Lab lead last week was 0.2 and also 0.2 the week before that.
I can see him as next leader, though suspect that his marmite politics may prevent him from being PM.
Tonight's poll in the Observer is a good poll, let's hope the recovery continues for the sake of our schools.
Ambulance crews are to be given more time to respond to incidents
Secret memo revealed targets may be increased from eight to 19 minutes
'Red 2' incidents, the second most serious, would be affected by change
Senior NHS doctors warned the scheme could risk patients' lives
Comes as the emergency services face widespread crisis this winter
I think I posted this interesting Staggers piece about him last year - probably fuller than his obits are likely to be. Quite an extraordinary life.
You are concerned about the schools.
Gove is concerned about the pupils
Lots of my friends left the country on or around 12th December when the private schools broke up, some of them are abroad for the whole holiday others for a week, back this weekend.
Dismiss it as much as you like.
If so, then 19 minutes for stroke victims is absolutely not a problem - the critical point is the drugs are administered with a 30 minutes window from the event
The Whatiffery is strong here.
And you're crap at blockquoting with links. Apart from that; meh.
You are of course right it is pupils who should be challenged and improved and of course educated. I do see Labour pandering more to unions systems the establishment and dogma rather than pupils. So the support for the polls by roserees is misplaced especially if she(?) sees the recovery as a green light to waste money.
And it is dogma by Gove that he was too fond of, which is a shame since it clouds all the sensible work he and the govt have done.
* This was years ago and there's much more stuff out there now, but even then there were quite a lot of Java applets out there for teaching demonstrations. But no, better to code it all from scratch himself... another chap at a school down the road did the same thing, retained copyright on his work, licensed it to other institutions, and eventually sold out for £££ to an edutech company. Sadly my ex-colleague never got the same reward. For a similar amount of thousands-of-man-hours, he produced a system that was "used" by a few dozen students per year. Worse, I got to see the detailed user statistics and most of the carefully crafted simulations were only interacted with by 2 or 3 students, the rest had just glanced at it and moved on...
What we do know is that every minute counts and delay causes morbidity and mortality.
Is this a sensible form of rationing? That is where the debate should lie.
Would anyone expect anything less?
Is it necessary to crank out those hours to be an effective teacher? An ex-colleague of mine used to arrive at work a little before 8 to get all her marking done. Breaks, free slots and lunch were spent doing lesson-planning and admin (she had a lower-middle management role for her sins). She avoided getting drawn in to any activity that didn't have £££ attached - no volunteering for some ad hoc committee, or running school sports or drama or music productions. She would be fastidious though about non-teaching duties that came attached to her management role: mentoring trainees, preparing strategy documents, calculating progress checks etc. If there were no after-school meetings then she'd stay for 30 minutes to sort out reprographics etc for the lessons she'd planned. Then she'd be off home, not much after 4, taking just her handbag with her - she flat-out refused to do any work at home, evenings or weekends. Pile of marking would be left on her desk for the next morning.
Her efficiency was fearsome and few of us - public or private sector - could aspire to it. To achieve it, she pretty much taught straight out of the textbook (and a library of trusted worksheets she'd assembled, though not written herself). But she was an "Outstanding" teacher, both in the (c) OFSTED kind of way and in results obtained (most likely because she was as no-nonsense with the kids as she was with her approach to work), so even when senior management put pressure on that she should be being more "creative" she had the status to ignore it.
I don't think all teachers can work like that. Some subject areas are particularly bad for this. Secondary drama, music and PE come to mind with all the extra-curricular entanglements they bring, and these days they need to spend time marking written work too - even in the PE department! Upper-middle management brings more responsibilities. Primary teachers are less able to "teach from the book". If someone suggests all teachers are working in stakhanovite conditions, it's simply not true. But I've known people who couldn't cope with workload and stress too - and suffered from it. One guy would, regular as clockwork, take a month or more off sick with stress when the coursework marking-glut came round. His colleagues were cynical about it, but the guy looked like a beaten shell of a man on his return. I do hope he quit the job because it wasn't doing him any favours.
If you read the Labour 2010 manifesto you will read that they said the NHS now had enough money and would now undertake a £20 billion efficiency programme.
health budget 2010 £ 116.9 billion
health budget 2015 £ 133.0 billion
... although the last is more likely to be £135 billion since only recently the govt announced an extra £2 billion for the NHS from economies elsewhere.
''Historically, international comparisons show that – in terms of national health care institutions – the NHS is the best in the world.''
http://www.bbc.com/news/education-27087942
That's 8am to 8pm with no work at weekends. And that's self-reported, so I suspect it's actually a little lower, and includes time in front of the TV doing marking casually.
Plus, of course, they get 13 weeks holiday a year. In my experience they probably work about 1-2 of those weeks. But it's still more than twice what most people get.
My sister-in-law, UK resident, this year had to wait over 6 weeks for gall bladder surgery, and didn't know when or where it was to be done, and eventually it was done - with only a couple of days notice - at a private hospital. She had no input as to time or location.
My daughter a couple of months later had to have the same surgery. It was done within 48 hours. She was able to choose where and when - admittedly as she had Obamacare the choices were limited, but as the patient she made the choices.
A couple of years ago I had to have an MRI. My doctor told me the office would make the appointment but it wasn't urgent and they'd tell me where and when. The appointment was the next day. I asked what would have happened if it had been urgent. The response was that in that case they would have sent me immediately for the MRI.
I have no doubt that the doctors and nurses in the NHS are every bit as skilled and dedicated as they are here, but the NHS is simply not set up to be responsive to patients. Here every doctor and hospital knows that patients have a choice and is ready to serve them - the NHS knows you have no choice and offers abysmal service and flexibility.
There is also a big difference in spending. The USA spends 18% of a higher per capita GDP on health, the UK a little over 8%. To a large extent you get what you pay for.
The NHS is a monolithic government outfit. In most other countries it isn't.
The percentage of GDP is a canard - it's all about how it's set up. Here the patient is the driver. In the UK it isn't.
I moved from Harrogate to a village outside and was told I'd have to change my doctor because of this. My doctor is my choice not some idiotic regulation requirement.
After all I'm the one paying for this.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2882176/Weak-Miliband-blasted-giving-immigration-rebel-plum-job-threatened-walk-Shadow-Cabinet.html
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·2h2 hours ago
Populus online poll LAB 35% CON 34% LDEM 9% UKIP 13%
But the polls are all over the place. I suspect at this time of year it is a tough job for pollsters to get a proper sample given how busy people are
Oh hang on, that's the Friday Populus poll, Lord A just reposting it to show how all over the place these polls are....
Thankfully, she's now left teaching.
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/list-of-oldest-living-former-mps.html
For the record, I will almost certainly not be voting either Labour or Conservative in 2015...
Healey (1952) replaces Freeman (1945) in that regard...
Audrey's point on that doesn't work, incidentally, unless she argues that not only are more Tories on holiday, but the ones who aren't on holiday are more likely than the others to switch to Labour. Each poll is based on a quota sample of former supporters of each party, so if they're looking for 500 2010 Tories they'll keep looking till they find them - it doesn't make any difference if more of this group (out of the millions for voted Tory) are away, the sampling works anyway.
It's the same issue as when people claim that it's significant that a Populus has more or fewer people representing one group and thus uprated or downrated - that's fine in polling terms unless the ones they find are uncharacteristic.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2882199/Farage-abused-power-save-Ukip-candidate-racism-storm-Email-reveals-overturned-ban-party-golden-boy.html
Tho I suspect most of the Red Kippers would be unfazed by 'poofters' or 'chinkie', unlike the Guardianistas who would be first to board the Outrage bus......