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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It could be that telling the pollster that you’ll vote GRE
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It could be that telling the pollster that you’ll vote GREEN is a polite way of saying don’t know
With Green growth being the polling story of the week I thought the time was right to look at where expressions of support for the party are coming from.
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'All of this, as we shall see, is because of poor forward-planning by NHS pen-pushers who chose to save their own jobs rather than those of frontline staff.'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2881469/The-REAL-reason-young-Britons-t-jobs-nurses-year-shipped-7-000-abroad.html
However my view is that they will get 5 to 10 MPs which is a huge platform for 2020.
In particular its a polite way of saying F off Clegg you Tory coalitioning traitor, we will vote for a proper beard, sandals and watermelon party.
Which is why the rise of the Greens is so toxic to the Libdems electoral prospects. Just when the Libdems were seeing an er.. Chink of light the Greens have done them in by splitting the beardiesandal vote.
Maybe it's a way of saying "I'm not going to vote" rather than anything else.The strong Green showing recently (sometimes equalling or even beating the Lib Dems) is a little perplexing.
Re this post and Paul_Mid_Beds who is another renowned kipper waver on here, I don't think the Tories on here 'laughed' at the prospect of UKIP getting 'anything like 5 MPs.' As one of those Conservatives I have consistently suggested they would be lucky to get 'more than a handful of MPs.' I'm sure you have large hands but I fail to see a great deal of difference between 'five' and 'a handful.'
My £10 bet with Isam looks good: that the LibDems will have at least 4x as many MPs as UKIP.
Should UKIP manage to get half a dozen MPs I would call it a piss poor performance compared to all the hype we have endured, particularly on here.
As UKIP polling changed, as with all other political parties, so did the predictions.
The LDs are poisoned by Clegg and being in bed with the Tories
The Tories haven't been fashionable in decades
Labour wrecked it last time
Kippers are quite brazen about it
So that leaves the Greenies as a port in a storm. I'd be very surprised if 50% of the Green VI happens on the day. It'll stay on the sofa or go the Big Two.
And to show there is no organisational learning, both Medical School places and Postgraduate training posts are being removed next year.
The Department of Health is run by idiots.
As mentioned, it does look rather like a protest vote for the ‘cuddly’ electoral element.
Now they say "you'll only get a few MP's etc"
Just old fashioned party politics from "Yes Minister" fans, they cant move on
"IIRC, this time last year the general consensus on PB was that UKIP would achieve ~5 MPs,"
I think you may be misremembering.
The consensus (and I agreed with it) was that Ukip might do reasonably well in the Euros but their vote would melt like summer fog with the sunshine of the General Election - as usual.
Five seats would be a breakthrough, and a surprising one, but perhaps not so surprising at this stage.
All that happens is, as UKIP does better, their critics (followers of the parties hit by their support) raise the bar higher to make themselves fell better. It doesn't actually make any difference in the real world
Achingly slow to make decisions, wrapped up in political correctness and meetings about meetings. And memos about nothing. It was totally different to DWP where it was frantic.
I've never been so bored in my adult life - I read books to keep myself occupied.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/deal/news/bob-frost-accused-of-racism-15560/
Its a racist party IMHO, no doubt about it.
UKIP and Europe is a side show.
http://voteforpolicies.org.uk/
It seems there is a market for a party who opposes privatisation and austerity.
DPRK News Service
@DPRK_News
Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un shows masterful prowess in providing field guidance to People's Army Cavalry Brigade. pic.twitter.com/GxNi2QcXQg
From what little I've gathered, it seems the EU bigwigs bleating about the evils of Syriza has increased the party's popularity, with some at least.
Edited extra bit: the presidential votes are on 23 and 29 December.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Greek_legislative_election#Graphical_summary
She made him look like a complete numpty.
Let sleeping dogs lie. Don't keep poking them with a a large stick. Or, as labour and the Tories have done, make a few cosmetic noises and let then slumber on.
Greece still a basket case then? I guess it was pretty clear the money sunk in there was never coming back, or at the least not in anything like the timing or amount EU leaders promised.
But the noisy EU can be relied on to bang tin cans.
Right, that's enough aphorisms (or whatever the grammatical phrase is).
Fair enough, but things should move on
Mr. Indigo, cheers for that link. But would it be enough for Tsipras to become PM?
But here's a headline quote from a few days ago
Following poor results for LAB from Ipsos-MORI & Lord Ashcroft YouGov ends the week with the party 5% ahead
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/12/19/after-the-most-intensive-polling-week-of-the-year-the-one-thing-that-we-havent-got-is-clarity/
North Korea, am I right?
Bloody ridiculous. Yeah, the conclusion is not the one I presume you seriously want, acknowledgement of a Lab trend, but opinion pieces need not, and the facts were included as you want. And I'm someone who has always thought Labour would win in 2015.
And now, off to the shops!
It's simply fabulous and just as true and coruscating as it was 30yrs ago. You won't regret watching the whole lot.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
On topic, the Greens are in my canvassing experience quite hard to persuade - they've already realised that they're opting out of choosing the MP, and they're often not very interested in actual policy so explaining that I am much closer to their programme than the MP doesn't really work. What they're doing is expressing a fundamental dislike of the current choice of main parties, which they feel is hopelessly undermined by compromise and fudge. In that they overlap with a chunk of UKIP voters, but they generally don't care about immigration and do care about the environment in a general way (don't we all?), so the Greens are the more logical protest party. Many formerly voted LibDem, and they're often quite anti-Labour so by no means Red Liberals, though I think some may vote Labour tactically in the end under the pressure of the campaign.
That said, as Mike observes many were non-voters before, and chasing them is to some extent fools' gold.
But each to their own.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30553247
First time voters who have been listening to how much they were misled.
RT @gwak52: "@MarkGSparrow: My lawyer sent me a Christmas card. pic.twitter.com/MgwkFbUiNO" hedging his bets ☺ < LOL #Legal
"She's made a Charlie of herself since."
I think you're right, She's been as successful as Basil Fawlty in the "Don't mention the war" sketch.
But all parties do tend to take the electorate for fools. How does "we'll make cuts but they'll be nicer cuts" stack up as coherent political strategy?
Personally I think the LD position of accepting that there will have to be tax rises as well as austerity is the economically and socially sane position. I can also see that it is never going to be an easy sell!
I have a lot of sympathy for Green policies outside their environmental core. They have a Utophian idealism that is rare in politics nowadays. Naive but inspiring, which is why they are popular with Foxinsox jr and his unwashed peers!
-In these seats the Greens averaged 0.75% in 2010 vs 4% now, so if they retained all of their own voters (The longitudinal data I've seen they very nearly have), that accounts for 19%
-15% are within the 18-24 age bracket, of which the 18-21.6 yr olds wouldn't have been old enough to vote in 2010.
Take that lot out and you're probably looking at about half the 54% figure.
It's also worth noting the equivalent YouGov national figure also from a chunky sample) from their first 9 December polls had an equivalent figure of 26% (not sure if that's a phone v online or national v marginals difference)
Some more Green analysis:
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/12/with-25-year-high-green-surge-gets.html
It was truly desperate.
Posh kids have dyslexia, Kipper kids are thick
In posh circles ... "I think I'll vote Green next time" is respectable, whereas "I think I'll vote Ukip next time" is met with hilarity or scorn.
They're both NOTA really.
And then Labour complains they'll inherit [if they win in 2015] a deficit, as if 1997-2010 was a time of which there is no memory.
Remembering an approximation of a quote out of the Mandy Rice Davies phrasebook..
"Well you would say that wouldn't you"
And Owen Jones blaming her for middle-class people having better dress sense than 'chavs' whilst discussing his book on R5.
I was laughing so much I could barely breath in.
In general PB is a bit like the BBC - we all get wound up over threads that seem unhelpfully focused on someone else's success or priorities, but the bottom line is that it does its best to portray trends neutrally. Looking at most of the polls, I don't think there's a clear trend to Labour at the moment, though we have probably recovered a modest lead after a period where it had dropped to roughly level pegging. Where the Tories are in denial is that they think that 4 months of "Don't vote for Ed" is going to transform matters for them, where it's singularly failed up to now.
Many of the Left attack both the Conservatives and UKIP as racist. That's unfair to both parties.
The elite are very good at using the same word to imply that something that is basically not good manners is the equivalent of the third reich. Another such word is child abuse. Most people associate this with child molesters whereas the elite and their social workers describe loving parents who shout at or smack their children as child abusers, thus demonising those who don't agree with their destructive liberal nostrums.
The rest is just such a lot of starry-eyed internationalist tosh which assumes that every other country in the world will agree with their laudable aims and not cheat or try and rip us off. XY001 Kumbayah is to be sung 6 times every day whilst holding hands where atleast two other people nearby, an additional verse of "We shall overcome" is considered optional, but strongly recommended. ;-)
Etc.
After a few minutes thumbing through their policies site (http://policy.greenparty.org.uk/) I find I have been shaking my head so much that my neck hurts.
RT @Hitchensfan: “@1rh: @Hitchensfan @dictionarycom pic.twitter.com/UxBXJ896cV” Or perhaps Norman Wisdom? https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/546241321275781120
Mr. Isam, whilst 'cheese-eating surrender monkeys' is a popular and more recent term, some of us traditionalists still like the short but sweet 'frogs'.
I'm shocked.
I'm beyond shocked.
I thought you were interested in politics?
One for @Plato
How to gift wrap a moggy
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152913661432744
"North Korea is alive and well on PB and UKPR.More than one poll have shown strong Labour leads in the last few days but have generated scant mention and no headlines, why? Why have the two 5 point and one 7 point Labour leads not had much comment or publicity.Censorship of omission or denial of trend?"
This made me LOL! One of life's two great lessons. A poll showing a large Labour lead is an outlier and never trust a man who tucks his jeans into his boots.
"Don't think I noticed the 7-point lead - where was that?"
I missed it too, until I checked the Wiki election page. Seems to have passed under most radars.
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/women-disproportionately-affected-by-economic-growth-without-wage-inflation
Edited extra bit: Mr. G, that's a bit unfair. [I'm not a proper teetotaller. I will very occasionally have a drink, but it's pretty uncommon].
By the way, I am sorry for the childish one upmanship recently.. reading back some of those posts it looks so petty
I accept all that. The major parties are corrupted by the handles of government (present and past) and UKIP is better defined by what it is against rather than what it is for. There will always be a need for a party of idealistic dreamers. I have voted Green myself in the past to put pressure on the major parties in much the way that kippers are doing now. I did not want a Green government, just one that was listening to them.
Incidentally is part of the Green DNV history due to the fact that many of them were too young to vote last time?