What do you think the chances are of the Tories winning the popular vote and Labour the most seats? I would guess the answer is: very high indeed.
I suppose a more interesting question might be to split the above scenario into (a) Labour winning a majority of seats and (b) Labour not winning the most seats — (ie. both with the Tories still ahead in the popular vote).
Comments
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEdfWWk3NnlpeHpmbHZxcVlnSzZwMlE#gid=0
Votes cast (using highest vote in multi-member divisions):
Con: 117,444 (36.23%)
UKIP: 85,475 (26.37%)
Lab: 65,018 (20.06%)
LD: 31,710 (9.78%)
Green: 12,714 (3.92%)
Ind: 3,894 (1.20%)
Others: 7,901 (2.44%)
Total: 324,156
Electorate: 1,091,972
Turnout: 29.69%
What do you think the chances are of the Tories winning the popular vote and Labour the most seats? I would guess the answer is: very high indeed.
I suppose a more interesting question might be to split the above scenario into (a) Labour winning a majority of seats and (b) Labour not winning the most seats — (ie. both with the Tories still ahead in the popular vote).