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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the most intensive polling week of the year the one thing that we haven’t got is clarity
The week before Christmas is always an intensive one for polling as the monthly surveys all get concentrated into a few days. This has been added to this year by latest batch of marginals single seat surveys from Lord Ashcroft.
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It will be more fun if there is still just as much variation in the polls five days before the general election; I suspect there won't be.
While the gap between male and female is at its widest ever, the gap between rich and poor is at its lowest.
Record numbers of disadvantaged students are getting places in higher education, rising by 11% compared with last year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-30537561
Whatever happened to all those scare stories about student numbers going to fall off the end of a cliff?
There are even lower figures for Scotland, but these are incomplete because Ucas does not cover admissions for all Scottish higher education.
What's quite interesting is that the variation doesn't appear to be quite so big for Ukip. Populus had them on 12 and YouGov has them on 16. But even ICM - the Gold Standard remember - has them on 14. The biggest variation appears to be for the Lib Dems, which is quite interesting.
I have no idea what anyone of this means or who's closest to the truth, but I wouldn't bet on the polls converging as we approach the election.
Andy PB speaks the press follows !
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2879503/Is-Britain-s-cheapest-petrol-station-Drivers-flock-garage-selling-fuel-just-1-09-litre.html
this is the garage we discussed on petrol prices earlier this week.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6s63ripmxv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-181214.pdf
Low Con 2010 retention (69%) while Lab 78% - and they struggled to get Sun readers (had to upweight by more than x2) - ironically, the internals if anything, are kinder to Con than Lab!
"Andy PB speaks the press follows !
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2879503/Is-Britain-s-cheapest-petrol-station-Drivers-flock-garage-selling-fuel-just-1-09-litre.html"
Reddich.....But a stone's throw from Ludlow! Just think of the riff raff that would queue for hours to get cheap petrol. Time to raise the drawbridge........
Not least because, by the standards they set themselves, this government has failed. It came to power promising to put Britain’s finances in order. By any sensible measurement it has signally failed to do so.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/12/the-fatal-contradiction-at-the-heart-of-the-tory-message-there-is-no-money-except-for-people-we-like/
Edited for clarity.
And with fact Labour underperform general polling then if I were a Tory I wouldn't be too downhearted by a couple of sharp Labour poll leads (which you'd expect under normal sampling variation).
Not necessarily all to play for - majority government is out of reach of both major Parties - but largest Party in hung parliament is the prize on offer and both have reasonably equal chances at this stage of achieving that.
Apparently I’m from Equatorial Guinea, - wears the fox hat?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30500372
EXCL: Labour won't give back £33k in donations from law firm being investigated for smearing Army heroes http://t.co/R9WU2GqmKD
I do wonder if the collapse in oil prices may save Labour's bacon, at least in part, up in Scotland. It makes a mockery of the SNP's " this time next year we'll all be millionaires, Rodney" economic plan.
It's slowly but surely dripping into peoples consciousness where Nicola and her band of opportunists were leading. It's very likely the SNP will pay a price at the next election and the only obvious beneficiaries are Scottish Labour. Time for gamblers to fill their boots
On the other hand this is a voteless recovery with the population seeing very little, if any, personal benefit from the growth. I suspect that there is a perception that if I am not gaining from all of this growth then somebody else must be and it is probably those rich bs that the Labour party is always going on about. Added to all of this the Autumn statement promised more of the same, more austerity, more cuts, little in the way of real wages. So the tories are really going nowhere.
In desperation almost record numbers are going to non mainstream parties, UKIP and increasingly the Greens. Most people know that in most constituencies outside Brighton this is a bit of a waste of time but they are frustrated and fed up.
The extent to which any one of these trends dominates can easily vary from sample to sample as there is little uniformity in the population. If people are more anti the main parties the Tories tend to do a bit better. It is one of the reasons that UKIP and the tories move more in tandem than they do against each other. If they are more focussed on who they actually want to win then Labour do a bit better.
How this will shake out in May is anyone's guess. Ed being dud is probably priced in now but there may still be voters who have not been paying attention and who will be appalled. A lot will turn on how many voters want to vote for a NOTA party. My guess is that it will be a record.
In fact, I think the impact of economic interests on voting intentions generally is overstated.
So for this present YG poll, as CV says the Cons 2010 retention was low against this month's median by about 5 points (mainly due to an abnomally high UKIP loss).
However, this was compounded by a higher redLD for Labour by about 5 points as well as a better Scottish share by about 6 points. So this coinciding of three good results for Labour gave them a recent high of 35. Is this a trend - we will have to wait and see.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/steady-mr-salmond-responsibility-is-required-from-the-prospective-mp-9934695.html?origin=internalSearch
Reinforces my belief we should renege on the Pledge and throw the ball back in their court.
I also see he has a persistent repetitive strain injury in his right hand, I can't say I am surprised.
"How this will shake out in May is anyone's guess. Ed being dud is probably priced in now but there may still be voters who have not been paying attention and who will be appalled. A lot will turn on how many voters want to vote for a NOTA party. My guess is that it will be a record."
The possible advantage Labour have in this neck and neck sprint to the finish is that we know the Tories have nothing more to offer. They've tried everything and they are where they are.
Its just possible Labour have a plan as yet unveiled that might be a vote winner. I'm beginning to doubt it but it's possible. My own sense is that if they haven't the voters will go for the devil they know and probably by a bigger margin than most are anticipating
However, Wales has just seen an increase in the unemployed and the same could happen in Scotland if the oil prices does not recover as contractors are a significant share of the oil and gas workforce.
Currently the price of Brent Crude is very volatile - probably driven by speculators and owners of crude still at sea. Yesterday it opened at ~$61, climbed to a high of ~$63.5 and finished at around $60. Today it is between $59 and $60, but who knows where it will finish?
Mr. StClare, my drinking habit is, er, Kuwaiti.
Mr. Lilburne, Salmond's an utter arse, but in political terms it's clever. Either what you suggest occurs, cue angry Scots, or what you suggest doesn't occur and we have Scottish MPs voting on English-only matters, cue angry Englishmen. Salmond's all about division and bitterness.
Bioko Island and an onshore portion adjoining Cameroon. Mark Thatcher, Simon Mann, coup and all that.
I went into the main supermarket in Malabo, Bioko Island. It was a large warehouse, with well over half the floorspace dedicated to booze. Also, at election time, the candidates bribe the voters with beer. So this may be troubling news for your liver.
As a teetotaller, I am a Kuwaiti.....
So now Scots know, vote SNP get Labour, vote Labour get Labour.
"In fact, I think the impact of economic interests on voting intentions generally is overstated."
Haven't most of the world's coups been the result of calamatous economic collapses not least the latest one in the Ukraine?
The killer for Labour could be if the Cons put in a form of EL4EV into their Manifesto and that is opposed by Labour or kicked into the long grass (by Labour) as part of a larger and time-delaying constitutional review.
Whether the Cons or UKIP would benefit most is a moot point, it would depend very much on the individual English constituency.
By the election, voters will be pretty clear if they're going to vote, "undecided" will generally mean "shan't bother", and UKIP will have a pretty well-established presence in voters' minds however the poll is formulated, so the methodologies will converge.
Like others here I think the real position is a small Labour lead, though unlike some I think it's quite consistent and quite solid - we're just seeing the random variation that is normal in sampling. A Labour government that falls a bit short of an overall majority is a very plausible outcome IMO.
Ed's personal ratings are very crap
1) Compared to Dave
2) Compared to Ed's predecessors as Leader of the Opposition
No opposition that has failed to poll 40% six months before the election has gone on to form the government after the election.
I doubt to many people in Scotland would worry about any bitterness in England towards a Labour Government being propped up by the SNP on the basis that Scotland gets more money.
http://news.sky.com/video/1368802/ed-milibands-gaffes
"The killer for Labour could be if the Cons put in a form of EL4EV"
My guess is that like the EU that's something that is only of interest to the obsessives who are already in the blue or purple camp
What with plunging oil prices not much fun being north of the border at the moment.
Actually, as I have grown older, I have drunk less alcohol. Yes I enjoy a beery shandy or a Pim's on a hot summer's day or a couple of glasses of good wine with a meal - but that is it. Still cannot understand many of the younger generation who insist that you have to get drunk to have a good time - do they have some form of inferiority or insecurity complex?
Women could be allowed to serve in British infantry units for the first time by 2016.
An Army review of the ban on women serving in close combat has concluded the change would not have an "adverse effect" on troop cohesion.
But further research is needed to assess the "physiological demands", the Ministry of Defence review said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30539111
That said, a Battallion of women soldiers would be able to defeat a Hannibal's army
(Probably because they had modern weapons and Hannibal had elephants and was crap)
(Oh and I'm being sarcastic, women in the infantry would be brilliant)
Steady as she goes.
An inspirational Labour leader would be hard pushed to confront that narrative.
Ed is not an inspirational Labour leader. He has nothing to offer.
Which general election campaign would you rather be running - Labour or Conservative?
And, I've got to be honest, I think an elephant would win in a fight with a woman.
I don't think economics influences an Indepence vote decisively but there is a long historical relationship between certain economic indicators and the governing party's support.
Edited extra bit: I did have to google that. Modern warfare is rubbish compared to the olden days.
Re women in combat, I presume there will be the necessary physical requirements to serve, so cannot see the problem. Seconded. Quite. Their actions previously have only been a convention in any case, not put to the test in a situation where they could tip the balance, why wouldn't they potentially act in the manner now being discussed.
Lots of abstaining Kuwaitees on here this morning I see. Politically obsessed people pre 9am in the morning not being drinkers? Truly a surprise, need some more boozehounds. What's that? Oh no, I don't drink either.
A single glass of wine apparently takes someone up to the 8th least prevalent drinkers in the world, in Timor-Leste, which I could not locate on a map if asked. Turns out it is the proper name for East Timor (of course! Felt like a fool afterwards).
A bizarre combination of cultural Marxism and nerdy fantasies of butt kicking babes.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/181604
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/02/19/sports/olympics/extreme-park-crashes-taking-outsize-toll-on-women.html?hpw&rref=sports&_r=0&referrer=
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/6183568
In reality women don't have the physical strength, mentality and undermine unit cohesion. A lot of wives at home won't be happy. Still after our defeats in Basra and Helmand let's hope we don't get to see them in combat.
What will Ed care about more: becoming PM or the long term future of the Labour Party? I suspect the former will be what he cares about more, irrespective of what his Party may think.
Of course, this is almost certainly a simplification of the situation, but it's worth thinking about as it's a result that could happen.
Party to make contingencies in case hung parliament - and aversion to another coalition - prompts second election
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/18/tories-contingency-funds-second-poll-general-election
Con ................ 289 (-2 seats)
Lab ................. 299 (unchanged)
Lib Dems .......... 31 (+2 seats)
Others ...............31 (unchanged)
Total .............. 650 seats
Edit: I'm not going to be demanding women in combat roles purely on the strength of some equality mantra, and modern, actual combat is not good fodder for nerd sexy fantasies either, sadly, but if the Army thinks, pending some further reviews, there would be no adverse effect, I think they can be trusted to be defending their own institution and its makeup.
Edited extra bit: and didn't Wilson have a second election once?
That's one of their mantras.
As for the Scottish question, on present form Labour will do better in England than Scotland - even in today's YG, Labour's score in the Scottish subsample (although somewhat improved) is still just 31%. Labour's objective in Scotland is to avoid getting hammered - it's in England where the gains are expected.
Anyone wishfully thinking he'd do otherwise is a fool.
Mr Eagles, couldn’t one argue that the “government" was in fact polling around the 40% mark, since it’s a coalition. It’s the largest party in that coalition which is down around 30, and slipping. The smaller party, after sliding for ages is now showing (welcome) signs of improvement.
Betfair cross-over on most seats is finally happening ..... identical prices now....
Despite OGH and Abbott/Portillo/Kennedy all saying Lab largest party!
tipping point.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416473
Miss Plato, maybe, but only for pragmatists. Those who think Braveheart is a documentary or that it only rains in Scotland because of English clouds will not let economic reality trouble them. Plus, the oil price will (probably) rise again sooner or later, and if it goes up it'll return to being a source of limitless prosperity and free unicorns.
Edit: I'm not going to be demanding women in combat roles purely on the strength of some equality mantra, and modern, actual combat is not good fodder for nerd sexy fantasies either, sadly, but in the end if the Army says it won't harm things, I think they can be trusted to defend their interests if they in reality think otherwise, even if they have to do it unofficially somehow. Sure won't. Won't be able to do anything about it for as long as the party leaderships can maintain calm though, which as we've seen in coalitions, can be managed for a lot longer than might be thought.
Betting PostF1: I posted this yesterday but in case anyone interested wasn't on, Ladbrokes has a specials market for 2015 up. Here are some I've backed:
Hamilton to beat the record (13) of wins in a season - 9
Mercedes to win every race - 17
Alonso to win in Australia - 15
There will be probably one more race in 2015 (20), but it's possible we'll have two more. Hamilton won 11/19 races this year, but if his car had not exploded so often he could've had 14. This is perhaps a 4-5 shot, in my eyes. Definitely not odds on, but 9 is too long, I think.
The Mercedes to sweep the board bet is less likely, so I've put on a smaller sum. But it's credible. Of Ricciardo's 3 wins, 2 were down to Mercedes blowing up [I think] and the third (Hungary) because Rosberg had countless little strokes of misfortune that combined to stop him from winning easily. In other words, on pace, Mercedes was utterly dominant and I believe they will be again next year.
However, they were a bit unreliable. Also, Alonso's a fantastic driver, the Honda engine *may* be tasty and, critically, McLaren seems to do well in Australia. I think this bet is contingent on Mercedes breaking, but that's entirely possible. I think Alonso could stand a decent chance of a podium or inheriting a win, but the stake I've put on here is the smallest.
To put the Labour leads into context, here's the Tory leads in December 2009
ICM in Dec 2009 had a Tory Lead of 9% compared to a Lab lead of 5% this week
Ipsos-Mori in Dec 2009 had a Tory lead of 17% versus a Tory lead of 3% this week
YouGov in December gave the Tories a a 10% lead compared to an average of around 1-2% Lab Lead this week, or going for the high point 5%
It will also be interesting to see how Sporting reacts to yesterday's polls as regards their spread prices, assuming these do not remain suspended.
Not sure this will change the voting intentions of the 45%ers though, for them independents was all heart and no head - but for the majority it will certainly resonate imho.