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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage joins the minus 20 leader dissatisfaction club
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage joins the minus 20 leader dissatisfaction club
Worrying trend here for Mr. Farage from @IpsosMORI pic.twitter.com/H2ZErRViIK
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A lot of it came from Hedge Fund sources, apparently.
Even now all he can claim is that Farage has seen a slip in his satisfaction ratings even though his net satisfaction is still better than any of the other leaders.
Of course I am one of those who, if asked would be registering as dissatisfied but the paryail reporting of the satisfaction polls is somewhat disappointing.
But to claim that is their election warchest is specious: they have plenty of operating costs over the last few years.
How much, for instance, has the Labour Party raised over the last 4 years? And what proportion of that came from the unions? (That's not necessarily a bad thing, but they are certainly a more cohesive and influential interest group than a bunch of individuals who happen to work in the same industry).
Until 1997, the top rate of stamp duty was 2% (values above £500K).
So it wasn't really an issue until Brown massively increased the rates. To be even-handed, Osborne also increased the top rates in order to offset any benefits from the reduction in the top rate of income tax to 45%.
So the reason why the Tories haven't reformed it before now is that it wasn't a problem. I suppose you could complain why it has taken then 4.5 years to do so, but equally it shouldn't have been at the top of the list of priorities
Nigel playing the part of the girl with the blackboard in the old bbc testcard I see... V trumptonesque
For low-information zombies like them it's just another phrase that means SATAN from HELL with POINTY STICKS
50% trade union donations
39% Short money, AKA taxpayer's hard earned cash.
So over a third direct from the taxpayer and another sizeable chunk from the taxpayer in the form of union "modernization" funds how does Mr Clipp feel about that?
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2013/07/12_partydonorsgraphic_x.jpg
Despite further evidence supporting the party's recent decline in the polls by around 2% - 3%, these same odds remain available from Ladbrokes.
Of course as their showing VI share edges closer to the 10% level, it is the 5%-10% band which becomes progressively more attractive.
DYOR
Cameron and Farage level-pegging on satisfaction ratings.
Both well ahead of the rest.
Considering Cameron is supposed to be leading The Most Evil Coalition In the Last 100 Years, that's quite impressive for the PM.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30532087
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30477250
Actually, I remember the total uproar over Abrahams, sorry Abrahams cleaners, fairly small donations to Labour, but somehow the Union Modernization scheme passed with not much more than the odd article in the Mail or Telegraph.
More details on spending etc from the electoral commission website.
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/5199/byelections-18th-december?page=1&scrollTo=208856
http://john-moloney.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/cant-take-much-more.html
...and I can't take much more of a TSE led debate.
Cheaper petrol and booming share prices!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2876810/Fury-Home-Office-loses-174-000-illegal-immigrants-Scathing-dossier-reveal-three-quarters-foreigners-refused-permission-stay-UK-vanished.html
UKIP membership passes the 42,000 mark for the first time ever
Total Politics goes belly up. (in print anyway)
http://order-order.com/2014/12/18/total-politics-closing-immediately/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11301993/Tories-pull-into-4-point-lead-over-Labour.html
"So over a third direct from the taxpayer and another sizeable chunk from the taxpayer in the form of union "modernization" funds how does Mr Clipp feel about that?"
To which I have to reply that I think it is scandalous. No political party should have such an enormous advantage over its competitors. Not Labour, not the Conservatives, not UKIP, who spent as much on the Euro elections as the Labour Party and the Lib Dems combined.
There is no reason to believe MORI more than ICM or indeed anyone else.
I think the best news for Con today is the Ashcroft marginal results - 3% swing, equal to a 1% Con lead. Pretty much bang in line with what Kellner is expecting - Con outperforming UNS in the marginals.
"The Left is paying a heavy price for its cowardice towards Islamist fascism. The state is demanding new powers to deal with the threat"
http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/features-january-february-2015-great-betrayal-liberals-appease-islam-nick-cohen-the-left
preparing for a second election next year.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/18/tories-contingency-funds-second-poll-general-election
The Guardian repeats the story about the 78,000,000 pounds, and the more than useful contributions from the Hedge Funds. So it must be true, mustn´t it?
Especially since the original source was the Conservative Party itself, via the Electorlal Commission.
The underlyiing question is, really, whether certain groups of people should be able to "buy" elections in this way.
I am genuinely and continually astonished at how Cameron is not rated at similar levels to Clegg and Miliband. Right from the start he has had very vocal detractors in his party, he's been unable to fight UKIP effectively and even lost two MPs to them, but his satisfied figures are comparatively decent.
Regardless, his have been there or there abouts for years, it's not interesting. Farage's declining for whatever reason, while still being better than the others, is noteworthy. It cannot be down to more exposure, he's had plenty of that before, so I presume it has to be some of the negative stories about UKIP sticking to him lately, but they've been more one offs than sustaining I think.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/178556/Q3-2014-donations-and-loans-Summary-document.pdf
Maybe by 'Hedge fund' they mean anyone other than Trade Unions?
3 or4 % tory lead is good and labour so low is good - for Tories. But with the polls as they are isn't what matter more than ever what the centre or swing voters think. These are people that are not likely to be terribly committed to any party. But they may well vote against something. And they are not likely to want to vote in a way which will favour extremists.
ie. He looks, walks and talks in a very leader-like way - he gives an outstanding impression.
I can't remember the exact number but isn't it said that only about 10% or 20% of the impression given in an interview is based on what you actually say.
Well it's the same when people assess a PM.
Of course people on here don't see it that way because they are very interested in detailed policies and all the minutiae.
In contrast most of the public just see the leaders on TV very briefly and form an overall, general impression.
Is it possible (I'm assuming that your answer above was no by the way) that North Korea had the money to pay people who could outwit Sony in such a way?
Well, maybe yes. But what would they pay? Unless you're a mad bad haircut fan it's hardly likely that the incentive would really be there - surely you'd just sell your story - no risk of prison, celebrity, money..
On balance I think something's wrong with this story.
That being said, having the resources and drive to have a small force of good hackers is probably easier than trying to keep the lights on nationwide in a failed state, so the nation being a basket case need not preclude them from having the capability.
Second things first...
It is known there is a small-ish group of people behind the vast majority of hack, virus sdk's, and providing other tools for "cyberware". Most are guns for hire.
The biggest botnet out there actually had a booking system, where you could book time and get access to 1000's of pc's to do what you wished with, akin to the old booking time on the mainframe.
But also you seem to think that Sony will have top notch security. That is absolutely not a given at all. They have been attacked and hacked before. In 2011, somebody took down the entire Playstation network and stole personal details of 77 million accounts.
And the "hedge fund" classification relates to the business activities of the individual donors. I suspect that very few hedge funds donate *as an institution*. The partners are, of course, at liberty to spend their after tax income as they see fit