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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield: The United Kingdom Independence Party are not as United Kingdom as their name suggests
This article was started on the Friday after the local elections (May 10th 2013) and was prompted by a discussion on the BBC Northern Ireland edition of the Sunday Politics the previous weekend about the chances of a UKIP breakthrough in the Assembly.
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It would be interesting to see the regional breakdown of the UKIP vote within England, so that one can judge to what extent UKIP is a broad-based resurgence of English Nationalism, or otherwise.
FPT
Using the word "hostile" to describe the attitude of people that aren't in favour of a change that you want seems typical of how "progressives" think.
The hostility, if there is any, over the gay marriage proposals certainly does not come from those opposed to it.
"Ed Miliband gets it. Hallelujah."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100219973/finally-ed-miliband-gets-it-hes-turning-his-back-on-the-owen-jones-flat-earthers/
Have you ever considered going onto the stage as part of a comedy routine?
"The reason Labour should worry most about the rise of Ukip is simple: survey evidence consistently shows that Ukip’s appeal resonates most strongly with traditional “Old Labour” voters. It appeals to older, less skilled, blue collar men far more than to the young, highly-skilled middle classes. As the party has surged in the polls, these social divisions in Ukip’s support have grown ever wider. The impact this has had on Labour is clear already, when we look at the ground Labour has recovered since its low ebb in 2009. Labour’s popularity among the under 35s, university graduates and middle class professionals has surged, but the party has seen next to no recovery in its polling with working class voters or men, and it has gone backwards with pensioners. If this pattern persists, it will pose serious problems for Ed Miliband and his party over the next two years."
http://www.cityam.com/debate/which-political-party-should-be-most-concerned-ukip-s-surge-popularity
Once again the Liberal Demorcrat's behaviour seems to be the complete opposite of their name! :^O
I had a quick look at the regional breakdown of the 2009 Euro elections, and London was the only region with a lower percentage of the vote for UKIP than Wales. The Kingdom of Thames comes a step closer...
Ian Paisley on QT was vilified for being opposed to gay marriage (or in favour of traditional marriage to put it a less negative way), both on the show and on here. I cant think of anyone who has said they are against it not being called a "bigot" or some other insulting term. Are there examples of hostility from the anti gay marriage section of society against those who are in favour? Or is being against it in itself enough to merit the word "hostile"?
The Nats are basically saying: 'Let us not be free. Let us be free of Westminster and instead become the minion of Brussels'.
UKIP are saying: 'To be truly free you need to be truly independent.' I agree with that. If the Jocks want to be free then they should really go for it. Leave Westmister AND Brussels behind. Get themselves a currency (the Thistle?) and be masters of their own penury.
Brown's 'Bigoted' women (and men), have found a new party to support.
Farage thinks every country in Europe should leave the EU, so maybe the European Independence Party?!
"The Independents" would be good but would be confusing on the ballot paper I suppose
In your own words, why are you against the proposed changes to legislation? You must have some fairly well considered thoughts on the subject if you have come up with the opinion.
Was there any polling in 2011-12 on the mood and concerns of the country indicating that UKIP may go from 1% to 22% in the polls?
The SNP have been the "anti-establishment" party of Scotland for a while now though and Plaid in Wales, and well NI is a different scenario all together.
All in all its got to mean at least a couple of extra % for UKIP in England when that is considered isn't it?
Chelsea Football Club is delighted to announce the appointment of Jose Mourinho as First Team Manager.
http://www.chelseafc.com/news-article/article/3199099/title/mourinho-appointed
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/02/labour-mps-ed-miliband-eu-referendum
Quite right too. How can Labour claim to be a one nation party or the voice of the people, when they're desperately trying to prevent such people having a voice so this nation can be told what to do by others?
For that matter, the Lib Dems have to buckle at some point. They now have less than a third of the UKIP vote. Are they really prepared to put not consulting the public above their survival as a party?
Watch out Oldies, Ed Balls will be after your TV licences and prescriptions next.
So why not see if they can get him to make a u-turn on one of the only positions he's actually stated a view on, instead of standing back and watching the Tories scratch each other's eyes out. Genius.
At least these people, if they actually exist, seem to have enough political sense not to let the bloke in charge tell anyone who they are.
The EDL's dim, tattooed thugs can barely spell the word 'fascist' – so let's concentrate on what really threatens our way of life, argues Tom Harris MP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10095899/Woolwich-and-the-dark-underbelly-of-British-Islam.html
So why not see if they can get him to make a u-turn on one of the only positions he's actually stated a view on, instead of standing back and watching the Tories scratch each other's eyes out. Genius.
At least these people, if they actually exist, seem to have enough political sense not to let the bloke in charge tell anyone who they are.
I so misread that as yougov have polled Labour MPs and 50% of Labour MPs see him as out of touch, dithering, weak or unclear on what he stands for
Mansion Tax and 10p Tax
“With family budgets under such pressure and living standards falling, surely it makes sense to introduce a mansion tax on properties worth over £2m to pay for a lower 10p starting rate of tax?”
Which makes me wonder, could the Lib Dems and Labour strike a deal to enact this, during this parliament?
In any case the LibDems wouldn't want to set that precedent, in case the Tories joined up with the Labour authoritarians and got some of the stuff they've been blocking through.
If pushed I would say my reasons for being pro traditional marriage, is that it is proven to be the best arrangement for bringing up children for the biological Mum and Dad to be married, and so marriage between these people should be privileged. Ok, some couples adopt, some don't want children, but they are the minority and no system is perfect. I thought civil partnerships were meant to be an official way of gay people declaring their love, having a ceremony and sorting out the legal loopholes.
So really I would say that it is because it takes the privilege away from biological parents who are married that I am against it, rather than any disrespect for the love a gay couple have for each other which I would say is obviously equal to that of heterosexuals.
Secondly, I am suspicious of the motivation of many people that support gay marriage. Marriage between men and women has been falling rapidly for decades. Many who are pro gay marriage are the type that used to say marriage was a dated sexist arrangement, lived with their "partners", weren't religious, and couldn't care less about traditional marriage in church until they realised how much it would wind up right wing people if gay people could do it as well.
...and it gave them a chance to call these people bigots.
I don't remember gay marriage being a big deal to anyone until 18 months or so ago. In 2010-2011 I studied Humanities at Brighton University, possibly the most right on, LGBT friendly place on earth where blaming white, straight men for society's ills was the order of the day and nobody once mentioned it.
We need to be careful to distinguish between different types of beliefs. The first sentence refers to a view that is in line with extrajudicial violence. This view is held by less than 10% of British Muslims, and not a much larger share worldwide. Governments of both stripes have also taken a lot of action on this.
However, the latter views are the ones that need a lot more focus, because they are much more widely held and yet not counted as "extremist" because they are not connected to terrorism. This needs to change. For example, very large majorities of Pakistanis believe some very nasty positions, which makes it likely that many of the large number of new immigrants to the UK from Pakistan have similar views. We need to make more of an effort to screen such people out, while, of course, not unfairly discriminating against the decent Muslims that are not of such ideology.
To be fair, it is very badly written - your interpretation was the natural reading of the sentence
Nick Palmer would know better than me - think money bills used to be automatic matters of confidence, but I suspect the government would need to turn round and make it an issue of confidence in any event. If the government can't control supply, then it doesn't command the confidence of the house almost by definition
Real voting figures versus polling.
Terribly dull.
'Mummy, what's that word that Lord Foulkes keeps calling me?'
For one thing, your statement:
"is that it is proven to be the best arrangement for bringing up children for the biological Mum and Dad to be married"
I'm not sure that fair proof can have been obtained for this when compared to the more recent M+M and F+F parenting arrangements which gave not really had time to work yet, although I could be wrong.
I went on a journey on this issue - initially I was (like you I think) mildly against the legislation, but it was not an issue that was in any way a dealbreaker for me. But as I read up more on it, and talked to people, I changed my view to be in favour. In fact, I have moved so far that I'm quite passionately in favour, even though it effects me not one jot.
At the end of the day I cannot see why two non-related people who are ready to commit long-term to each other, should not be treated by the law in the same way as any other two people willing to make the same commitment.
*Innocent face*
For anyone who missed it, the article by Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin (who know more about this subject than almost anyone else) at the weekend is a must-read:
It's a misconception that Ukip draws from the right: its biggest support is from Labour's traditional – and disaffected – base
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/30/ukip-gunning-labour-ed-miliband
Although it's not particularly explicit in that article, Dr Ford has told me in an email that he thinks that the ex-Tory UKIP supporters are more likely to return to the Tories at the GE than ex-Labour UKIP supporters are to return to Labour.
There is reason for Labour to worry on this front, as previous research suggests that in the last election cycle, “strategic defectors” who switched to UKIP at mid-term and then return at the general election are often more middle class and Conservative leaners than core UKIP loyalists, who are often poorer and more working class. If this pattern repeats itself in 2015, the Conservatives may recover some of their lost support while Labour voters tempted by Farage may prove harder to win back.
http://nottspolitics.org/2013/06/03/polling-observatory-25-ukip-surge-but-who-do-they-hurt/
I said last night that Labour's Winter Fuel change was less than one thousandth of the (current) deficit.
Guess what - Nick Robinson uses exactly the same stat!!!! (He actually says not much more than one thousandth of deficit in 2015).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22753040
I want to believe you Socrates, I really do, but I don't think we can infer one from the other without solid research and/or polling (especially as the torch passes from one generation to the next).
Good. This would do more than all the HoC regulations and self administered 'discipline' that politicos talk about. Get caught scamming or being an utter cnut and you might lose your lovely seat.
Why can't members of the established political class propose sensible measures like this that give more power to the people and less to the elites? (How stupid a question is that!)
RN,
My anecdotal evidence also suggests that more Labour than Tory voters are defecting to UKIP, but that might be because I know more labour voters in this part of the country. And they may well stay "defected".
Do my anecdotes trump tim's wishful thinking?
Under Labour a person living in a £3M villa in Spain will get no winter fuel benefit but pay no mansion tax.
A person in a £2 M house in London will pay mansion tax and may not get the winter fuel allowance - depends on their income.
So under Labour it is best to flee the country if you own a big house.
Meanwhile the other 99.99% of public spending will be unchanged.
Great stuff.
I read last week that UKIP were going to come out with some new media stuff (broadcast?) deliberately targeted at labour voters, has it materialised?
When Mrs J and I got married on HMS Warrior, it was a registry office affair and was not in the least way religious (we decided that a religious ceremony between a Turkish atheist and a British agnostic would be hypocritical). Under such an arrangement, would we be 'married'?
2) Eastleigh, where UKIP ate into the LibDem vote share to almost exactly the same extent as into the Tory vote share
3) South Shields, Middlesbrough. Ain't no Tories there to eat into. (Not quite true, but you get the gist)
The big picture is that UKIP took the first part of its support from disaffected Tories. It continues to do so, but the recent surge has been much more even in its effect on the two main parties, and to an extent on the LibDems.
There was so much good news on the economy in the last thread that I was reluctant to join the party for fear that an independent reader might start considering PB to be Tory biased.
Even SeanT was praising the work of the Downing Street elite.
Still we seem to have missed the release of this month's Reed's Job Index of the Labour market.
After a little flatlining in March and April, employment is looking as though it is about to resume its upward climb.
The UK job market is at it healthiest since 2008 following a record surge in new positions across all sectors, according to a report by recruitment firm Reed.
Reed's Job Index, which is compiled using data from over 10,000 employers, said there were 8% more job opportunities on offer in May than in April. Annually, growth in new positions is currently over 17%.
The report said there were more opportunities for jobseekers in over 90% of the UK’s employment sectors last month compared with April, with one in four sectors making over 10% more jobs available.
Reed said the rise in new positions was also seen in all parts of the UK rather than just London and the South East.
So prospects up in almost all sectors and all regions of the UK.
Well that really is good news. Even tim and Ben will like that.
We recognise that for many of our fellow OAP's that wouldn't apply.
What we do wonder is whether before OAPs will not get bus passes until they actually draw their pensions, rather than, as now, getting them at 60.
Big advantage of bus passes of course that, because they are used, buses are considerably fuller than they would be otherwise during the day, and therefore are available for the rest of the community.
Here's a hint: What has Nick Palmer been saying about LibDem defectors to Labour?
"Which naturally poses the question, is England more anti the establishment than Wales or Scotland? Looking at the devolved Assembly votes since 1999, it would appear to be that way."
What on Earth is "anti-establishment" about UKIP? They're just more of the same right-of-centre mush that passes for the centre of gravity at Westminster. In 2011, Scotland elected a majority government that wants independence and the removal of inhuman weapons from our shores. I'd say that's pretty anti-establishment by any standards.
And on a point of pedantry, Scotland has a parliament not an assembly.
The fact that you are not losing the die-in-the-ditch loyalists of 2010 seems to provide you with inordinate reassurance. Planning on not winning again?
"The IMF said falling business investment and the eurozone's ongoing recession, which have hampered German growth, meant the economy would grow by just 0.3pc this year, compared with an April estimate of 0.6pc."
Wetherspoon's plans to open first motorway service station PUB that will serve people 24 hours a day
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2335001/Wetherspoons-plans-open-24-hour-motorway-service-station-PUB.html
You make an important point. The conservatives are all too aware of the UKIP threat. Indeed, I wouldn;t be surprised if Dave spends more time worrying about how to fix Nige than he does Ed.
Labour by contrast are still a bit complacent about the potential UKIP threat.
It's no worse than service stations selling alcohol.
"Does the existence and popularity of UKIP pose a threat to the arguments put forward by the SNP?"
A question for the Rentoul series.
"The Nats are basically saying: 'Let us not be free. Let us be free of Westminster and instead become the minion of Brussels'."
Patrick, if you seriously think that being a member of the EU involves being "minions", and given that the UK is currently a member of the EU, in what sense would Scotland be "becoming" a minion simply by remaining in the EU after independence?
"Labour have little to cheer, though, as their support has also dropped substantially for the third month running, down 0.7 percentage points to 37.7%. While Ed Miliband and his party retain a healthy lead over the Conservatives, their popularity is also now close to the lowest seen since Miliband took over the leadership. Recent polling showing voters comparing Miliband’s leadership unfavourably to that of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown will hand further ammunition to critics arguing that Labour’s position remains vulnerable.
There is reason for Labour to worry on this front, as previous research suggests that in the last election cycle, “strategic defectors” who switched to UKIP at mid-term and then return at the general election are often more middle class and Conservative leaners than core UKIP loyalists, who are often poorer and more working class. If this pattern repeats itself in 2015, the Conservatives may recover some of their lost support while Labour voters tempted by Farage may prove harder to win back."
In any case, I think you've slightly missed the point. It's the UKIP surge over the past few months which has started to hit Labour. Middlesbrough and Rotherham showed the early stages of the effect, but it's since the start of 2013 that the shift has been gathering momentum.
Tim I think you're probably right, but that's up to now.
Trouble is, UKIP hasn't really yet started its promised offensive on labour voters, whilst the tories will probably get swing back of some sort...
This is very good news for UKIP. FPTP operates against the interests of parties with a very even level of support throughout the country. I used to think that for UKIP to get 1 or 2 seats would be a great performance at the 2015 GE. But maybe, for no reason that is easy to pinpoint, UKIP's voters are nowhere near as evenly distributed as is commonly thought.
The LDs will win 40 seats, with 10% of the vote in 2015 (approx). UKIP could have won 0 seats with 20% of the vote. But as soon as 'hotspots' of UKIP support are identified, voting UKIP no longer seems to be a wasted vote. And UKIP intend to target resources much more in 2015. Donors appear for parties doing well.
And the sun is shining.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10096331/Coalition-braced-for-MPs-rebellion-over-new-2030-carbon-energy-target.html
"MPs will vote on Tuesday on whether to introduce an amendment to the Energy Bill which would commit the UK to have a “near carbon-free power sector” by 2030
The MPs’ amendment would bring in the requirement almost immediately, whereas the Government is proposing separately to agree the target in 2016.
The backbench amendment would remove coal-fire and gas-fired power stations from their network"
The key point you have made is that Tories travel to UKIP on return tickets. Labour voters emigrate.
tim will never understand this.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2334663/Coalition-cuts-save-10bn-12-months-Amount-equivalent-nearly-600-working-household-country.html
Talks about managing public money like a FTSE100 company does. Wow. Good news if true. There is stil lan astonishing amount of fat in the system. To find 10 bn in the first place is a savage indictment of the way governments manage of taxes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn7Y-BSh51o&feature=player_embedded
Today, it's Alan Sugar losing his free seat on the 22.
Tomorrow it's Doris and Sid Bloggs paying on the 78, when the sums are Ballsed up.
Thanks Carlotta - I heard they were planning something....
If I had to guess, I would guess that we would be discussing in 2015 who the relatively few remaining UKIP diehards had been drawn from. UKIP may well represent the exit strategy for current mainstream party supporters rather than their final destination, but whether more will be transferring from Labour to Conservative via UKIP or Conservative to Labour via UKIP, I wouldn't like to guess.
What I would really like to see is an UKIP PPB targetting Green voters.
Perhaps Roger could come up with some storyboards.
" Under Ukip, we would opt out of EU rules preventing us from using Green voters as a cheap source of energy...."
Would get my vote.
As fore the Thread, I just want to say that UKIP will get to all parts of the UK, but some parts more more than others. Have a nice day.
And the reason for this?
The market for luxury homes in London is cooling at a time when prices for less-expensive properties are picking up, helped by a credit-boosting program by the Bank of England and the U.K. Treasury. While demand for prime real estate remains strong, Knight Frank said would-be buyers of homes valued at as much as 2 million pounds ($3 million) are becoming more price sensitive.
Boy George is not only a great Chancellor but he seems also to be a great champion of wealth distribution and fairness too.
Wherever will the Lib Dems go next?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100220028/when-it-comes-to-free-schools-labour-has-more-positions-than-the-kama-sutra/
"Tony Blair thinks free schools are a good idea, while Ed Miliband doesn't think they're the right answer. Andy Burnham is opposed to all free schools, apart from those set up by former Labour Party apparatchiks, while Stephen Twigg thinks no politician should be opposed to such schools unless they fall foul of his five "evidence-based criteria".
Or maybe not.
Meanwhile, Ed Balls doesn't have a problem with opening more free schools provided they're not in areas that have "excess places", even though he has described the policy as the "most socially divisive education experiment" for 60 years."
That would be enough to make the normally fireproof Neil spontaneously combust.
Who said Labour didn't do comedy.