Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation poll out
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation poll out
Whilst the changes are sub margin of error, the 2% gap between the Tories and UKIP that existed in the last two Survation polls has now become a 5% gap, which will be a relief to the Conservatives, but this another poll showing UKIP in the 20s.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Whenever England select Jade Dernbach, lay England/back England's opponents.
You won't go wrong.
Lay off Jade - he tries his best!
FPT
Is this more good news?
Last week the OECD published their mid year Economic Outlook which contains its economic forecasts to the end of 2014 for member and key non-member countries. Their previous forecast was published in December 2012.
Much was made in the media of the OECD downgrading the UK's growth forecast for 2013 and 2014 from its previous December forecast. Indeed, had you been listening only the BBC and Sky, you might have concluded that this was more bad news solely for the UK economy.
It takes a bit of digging behind the media headlines into the OECD figures and report to reveal the true picture. And, from a global perspective, the news is indeed not good. Of the 40 countries reviewed only seven had their Real GDP growth rates revised upward and only one of these, Japan, was a G7 country.
Of the main countries the US and Germany suffered -0.2% reduction, Spain -0.4%, Canada -0.6%, Italy -1.0%, France -1.1% and even China was marked down by -1.4%. The aggregate for the OECD as a whole was -0.2% and for the Eurozone -0.8%.
So this makes the meagre adjustment of -0.1% to the UK's growth forecast rather a good performance relative to the rest of the world. It is clear the UK's economy is improving markedly when compared to its main competitors, particularly in Europe. We may not yet be thriving but we are certainly surviving.
Of all those pleased with the UK performance, Angel Gurria, OECD's Secretary-General stood out. The OECD have been key advocates and endorsers of fiscal consolidation, far more so than the wobbly US Democratic influenced IMF.
In June 2010, Gurria welcomed Osborne's first budget with a public endorsement:
“It provides the necessary degree of fiscal consolidation over the coming years to restore public finances to a sustainable path, while still supporting the recovery. The plan for a gradual reduction in the deficit over the next five years is concrete and far-reaching. It is appropriate that the bulk of the adjustments come from public expenditure restraint, and that the tax measures focus mostly on consumption.”
It was Gurria whom Ed Conway interviewed for Sky in Paris last Thursday. Gurria was the one with the smug smile on his face explaining that he had witnessed many attempts at economic turnaround in his time and the most successful ones have derived from a consistent and well-balanced plan with soft hands on the automatic stablisers. Conway remained silent looking suitably chastised.
He then went home and wrote the following in his blog:
We're so used to hearing bad news from international institutions like the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development that it might come as a surprise to hear that there's a whopping slab of good news for Britain buried away in its latest Economic Outlook.
Admittedly, the good news is tucked away in one of the more obscure tables near the back of the report, and comes alongside some more noticeable bad news. But we must cherish these moments when they come – and this news is genuinely encouraging.
It's as follows: after this crisis is through, from 2018 to 2030, Britain can enjoy stronger growth than almost any other major economy. At 2.6% the average predicted growth rate is even stronger than the United States (2.1%) and far, far stronger than Germany (0.9%). Britain's advantage will remain in place between 2031 and 2060 as well, at average growth of 2% (US: 1.7%, Germany: 0.7%).
The figures, which form part of a section on long-term growth statistics from the OECD's latest survey of the world economy, are striking, suggesting as they do that Britain is destined for generations of punchy growth.
It's as follows: after this crisis is through, from 2018 to 2030, Britain can enjoy stronger growth than almost any other major economy. At 2.6% the average predicted growth rate is even stronger than the United States (2.1%) and far, far stronger than Germany (0.9%).
Britain's advantage will remain in place between 2031 and 2060 as well, at average growth of 2% (US: 1.7%, Germany: 0.7%).
The figures, which form part of a section on long-term growth statistics from the OECD's latest survey of the world economy, are striking, suggesting as they do that Britain is destined for generations of punchy growth.
If you want the explanation for this good news you will have to go directly to Ed Conway's blog as he certainly won't be permitted to reveal such thoughts to Sky News's cameras.
Here is the link: http://www.edmundconway.com/author/admin/
Radwanska beat Ivanovic 2-0, so the tip came off. Huzzah!
Here is the good news in tabular form:
OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?
Hell, even Derek's Mum would play better for England than Jade.
3/1 says ITV's pictures go down again in the second half...
I have seen him bowl wonderfully at the death. But his recent England stats (actually his England career stats) are horrific. I am available to console him when the inevitable happens.
Paddy Power are being very enterprising - 4 markets on a Newark by-election already! And they have a market on the Aberdeen Donside by-election.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/aberdeen-donside-by-election/winning-party
*loses will to live*
Ed in his flip flops.
April 2013
'“Of course we look at all these issues but as Ed made clear twice in the interview Labour supports the Winter Fuel Allowance. Labour introduced the Winter Fuel Allowance. He made clear in his interview in January with James Landale in January that universality is “part of the bedrock” of our system. The position has not changed.”
June 2013
''A future Labour government would scrap the winter fuel allowance for over half a million richer pensioners, the shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, will announce on Monday, as part of attempts to prove the party is ready to take tough spending decisions.'
Leaving aside the fact last night I was subjected to a video of Linda Martin covering a Daft Punk's song....here's the Sab Dance leaflet for the Euro selection
http://www.sebdance.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/seb-dance-leaflet.pdf
but I guess it's difficult to beat the video at the bottom of this page: you need to have a quite big ego and/or self-confidence to produce it
http://www.afzalkhan.org.uk/
500,000 pensioners @ £200 = £100m.
It is less than ONE THOUSANDTH of the deficit.
The key word is "competitive". It signals the Berlin-London, Merkel-Cameron axis on EU reform.
The whole statement translates perfectly to German but not to French.
That is its point.
" Ed Miliband's widely applauded "One Nation" conference speech last year was written by "Blue Labour" godfather Marc Stears. "
So EdM's deeply personal and sincere conference speech was written for him by a Labour party hack.
(Fantastic goal from Rooney... sadly it spurred the Brazilians on).
Cute try though
The government should be doing what it can, within the available budget. £100m given to people who don't need it should either not be spent (and taxes lowered) or it should be spent more productively.
The only reason for not cutting it is that the PM gave his word it wouldn't be cut.
Blame Labour for stopping the Tories making that particular saving.
A month has hardly passed since he was playing the bitch to the IMF's Chief Economist.
And the long term forecasts do make the same point that both tim and Neil have been making in their own unique ways over the past few years.
I am not one to argue with such scholars.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVKIFfwWRg8
To reply with one of the very few paragraphs of note I read on an Australian blog written by a stimulus driven Krugmanite:
Now lets be clear. I am a time-series econometrician which means I understand the concept of forecast errors and the need to qualify one’s forward-looking projections. Uncertainty stops us knowing what the future holds and while econometric models can be helpful there is always error. So my criticisms are not that the OECD (or bank economists) or anyone else makes forecasts that are later shown to be inaccurate.
Forecasts are made to be wrong, Charles. If the future was certain there would be no need for them.
Sam Launder @SamuelLaunder
SURVATION SURVEY YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE VOTERS
LABOUR 41.4%
UKIP 27.1%
CON 12.5%
LIBDEMS 8.7%
GREENS 6.4%
----------------------
General Election @UKELECTIONS2015
SURVATION SURVEY NORTH EAST VOTERS
UKIP 36.8%
LABOUR 36.2%
CON 14.4%
GREEN 2.4%
LIBDEMS 2.3%
http://world.time.com/2013/06/02/protests-in-turkey-will-taksim-become-erdogans-tahrir-square/?iid=gs-main-lead
I am sure that they have their reasons, but what is going on?
They are often unreliable on their own. For ex in this poll, you have UKIP just ahead in NE but Labour outpolling them 3 to 1 in South West and leading them by 10+ in South East. And Lab and Con being neck and neck in Scotland.
OECD EO 93 (Jun 2013) Hungary Real GDP Growth Forecast 2013 = 0.51, 2014 = 1.26
OECD EO 92 (Dec 2012) Hungary Real GDP Growth Forecast 2013 = (0.13), 2014 = 1.16
So the major 'turnaround' is in the 2013 figures.
The main improvement over expectation made by Hungary in 2012 has been in deficit reduction:
The 2012 budget deficit, at 2% of GDP, turned out substantially smaller than expected due to strong tax revenue increases, improved spending control and sizeable net one-off proceeds (worth 0.7% of GDP, according to official estimates). The authorities remain committed to the objective of exiting from the excessive deficit procedure, and their recent Convergence Programme has set deficit targets of 2.7% of GDP for both 2013 and 2014 (no one-offs being envisaged), while planning a strong increase in public investment in tandem with growing EU transfers.
I think we need to know what the "net one-off proceeds (worth 0.7% of GDP)" are. I don't and the OECD doesn't give further details.
Otherwise the OECD paint a picture of an economy struggling successfully but slowly with a broad range of problems. Hungary was in recession through 2012 but is expected to grow this year, unlike the Eurozone countries who are forecast to remain in recession. No indication though why movement to growth should have higher velocity than in other similar economies, though it should be noted that Austria and Switzerland are outperforming the rest of developed Europe in growth.
Perhaps antifrank has bought the Elisabeth Bridge in Budapest from the Hungarian State?
Do the shadowy figures moving behind the scenes to fix the Broxtowe selection know about your dangerously independent behaviour?
If I buy a bridge, I expect it to be named after me. Given that the Hungarians refused to name their latest major bridge after Stephen Colbert despite him triumphing in a vote, I shall not be purchasing such items from the Hungarian state.
I am planning a trip to Budapest later this year. It does sound like the Magyars could teach our politicians a little about how to get a deficit down!
It is interesting that the Czechs and Slovaks and Scandanavian countries are being heavuly revised downwards. Presumably this is because of the ongoing Euro Crisis, despite only Finland being in it (I think!)
You don't know what the one-off deficit reducing transaction worth 0.7% of GDP was then?
While you are on I should caution against you hiding Forint under your floorboards.
The main downside risk stated by the OECD is:
A sharp depreciation is the main risk
A sharp depreciation of the forint could have destabilising effects given the still high foreign currency indebtedness of the private and public sectors. The reliance on exports for growth means the recovery will depend strongly on conditions abroad.
Tory/UKIP 45%
Labour 36%
Without going back to the report for each country, my general recollection of the causes of the slowdown is trade dependence on the Eurozone countries. We are lucky in the UK to have much more broadly based trading partners particularly with the US but also arrangements through the Commonwealth legacy. Such a luxury is not available to the Czechs and Slovaks who (without checking the figures) must be heavily dependent on trade with Germany.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0A7jAVDPJU&
Everyone under 40 in CCHQ must be tearing their hair out.
Ed'n'Nige 56%
Coalition Government 35%
Ouch.
Those shadowy figures sounds nice - you must introduce me...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW8UnXzP3ms
Or to stick with the ludicrous FPTP, so that Sunil reporting of polling combinations is rendered meaningless.
One of the reasons Why is such a great song is that it was produced by Nile Rodgers who has of course just helped out with the new Daft Punk album Random Access Memories.
I have a Youtube channel now
http://www.youtube.com/user/SunilP2
Sounds interesting...