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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation poll out

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation poll out

Whilst the changes are sub margin of error, the 2% gap between the Tories and UKIP that existed in the last two Survation polls has now become a 5% gap, which will be a relief to the Conservatives, but this another poll showing UKIP in the 20s.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    New PB Cricket tipping team golden rule, forget always laying the draw.

    Whenever England select Jade Dernbach, lay England/back England's opponents.

    You won't go wrong.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE

    Lay off Jade - he tries his best!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    Hey TSE, it has taken me the best part of the weekend to get through the 300 plus pages of the OECD Economic Outlook. Now you change the thread!

    FPT

    Is this more good news?

    Last week the OECD published their mid year Economic Outlook which contains its economic forecasts to the end of 2014 for member and key non-member countries. Their previous forecast was published in December 2012.

    Much was made in the media of the OECD downgrading the UK's growth forecast for 2013 and 2014 from its previous December forecast. Indeed, had you been listening only the BBC and Sky, you might have concluded that this was more bad news solely for the UK economy.

    It takes a bit of digging behind the media headlines into the OECD figures and report to reveal the true picture. And, from a global perspective, the news is indeed not good. Of the 40 countries reviewed only seven had their Real GDP growth rates revised upward and only one of these, Japan, was a G7 country.

    Of the main countries the US and Germany suffered -0.2% reduction, Spain -0.4%, Canada -0.6%, Italy -1.0%, France -1.1% and even China was marked down by -1.4%. The aggregate for the OECD as a whole was -0.2% and for the Eurozone -0.8%.

    So this makes the meagre adjustment of -0.1% to the UK's growth forecast rather a good performance relative to the rest of the world. It is clear the UK's economy is improving markedly when compared to its main competitors, particularly in Europe. We may not yet be thriving but we are certainly surviving.

    Of all those pleased with the UK performance, Angel Gurria, OECD's Secretary-General stood out. The OECD have been key advocates and endorsers of fiscal consolidation, far more so than the wobbly US Democratic influenced IMF.

    In June 2010, Gurria welcomed Osborne's first budget with a public endorsement:

    “It provides the necessary degree of fiscal consolidation over the coming years to restore public finances to a sustainable path, while still supporting the recovery. The plan for a gradual reduction in the deficit over the next five years is concrete and far-reaching. It is appropriate that the bulk of the adjustments come from public expenditure restraint, and that the tax measures focus mostly on consumption.”

    It was Gurria whom Ed Conway interviewed for Sky in Paris last Thursday. Gurria was the one with the smug smile on his face explaining that he had witnessed many attempts at economic turnaround in his time and the most successful ones have derived from a consistent and well-balanced plan with soft hands on the automatic stablisers. Conway remained silent looking suitably chastised.

    He then went home and wrote the following in his blog:

    We're so used to hearing bad news from international institutions like the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development that it might come as a surprise to hear that there's a whopping slab of good news for Britain buried away in its latest Economic Outlook.

    Admittedly, the good news is tucked away in one of the more obscure tables near the back of the report, and comes alongside some more noticeable bad news. But we must cherish these moments when they come – and this news is genuinely encouraging.

    It's as follows: after this crisis is through, from 2018 to 2030, Britain can enjoy stronger growth than almost any other major economy. At 2.6% the average predicted growth rate is even stronger than the United States (2.1%) and far, far stronger than Germany (0.9%). Britain's advantage will remain in place between 2031 and 2060 as well, at average growth of 2% (US: 1.7%, Germany: 0.7%).

    The figures, which form part of a section on long-term growth statistics from the OECD's latest survey of the world economy, are striking, suggesting as they do that Britain is destined for generations of punchy growth.

    It's as follows: after this crisis is through, from 2018 to 2030, Britain can enjoy stronger growth than almost any other major economy. At 2.6% the average predicted growth rate is even stronger than the United States (2.1%) and far, far stronger than Germany (0.9%).

    Britain's advantage will remain in place between 2031 and 2060 as well, at average growth of 2% (US: 1.7%, Germany: 0.7%).

    The figures, which form part of a section on long-term growth statistics from the OECD's latest survey of the world economy, are striking, suggesting as they do that Britain is destined for generations of punchy growth.


    If you want the explanation for this good news you will have to go directly to Ed Conway's blog as he certainly won't be permitted to reveal such thoughts to Sky News's cameras.

    Here is the link: http://www.edmundconway.com/author/admin/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good evening, everyone.

    Radwanska beat Ivanovic 2-0, so the tip came off. Huzzah!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT Neil

    Here is the good news in tabular form:
    Revisions to Real GDP Growth Rates     
    OECD Economic Outlook No 93 (June 2013)

    Japan 1.5
    Hungary 0.8
    Israel 0.5
    New Zealand 0.3
    Mexico 0.2
    Chile 0.1
    Switzerland 0.1 Revised Up
    ---------------------------------------
    United Kingdom (0.1) Revised Down
    Greece (0.1)
    Norway (0.2)
    Germany (0.2)
    United States (0.2)
    **Total OECD** (0.2)
    South Africa (0.2)
    Austria (0.4)
    Spain (0.4)
    Australia (0.5)
    Canada (0.6)
    Ireland (0.7)
    Indonesia (0.7)
    Luxembourg (0.8)
    **Eurozone** (0.8)
    Korea (0.9)
    Iceland (0.9)
    Belgium (1.0)
    Italy (1.0)
    Denmark (1.1)
    France (1.1)
    Poland (1.1)
    Slovenia (1.2)
    Sweden (1.2)
    China (1.4)
    India (1.4)
    Finland (1.6)
    Portugal (1.6)
    Turkey (1.7)
    Brazil (1.8)
    Netherlands (2.0)
    Russian Federation (2.0)
    Estonia (2.1)
    Slovak Republic (2.5)
    Czech Republic (2.9)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    AveryLP said:

    Hey TSE, it has taken me the best part of the weekend to get through the 300 plus pages of the OECD Economic Outlook. Now you change the thread!


    You need to get out more.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Swingvoters blundering around in a mire of meh.

    OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Neil said:

    @TSE

    Lay off Jade - he tries his best!

    Derek from Crystal Swing would be a better player for England than Jade.

    Hell, even Derek's Mum would play better for England than Jade.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Coral ‏@Coral 29s

    3/1 says ITV's pictures go down again in the second half...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE

    I have seen him bowl wonderfully at the death. But his recent England stats (actually his England career stats) are horrific. I am available to console him when the inevitable happens.

    Paddy Power are being very enterprising - 4 markets on a Newark by-election already! And they have a market on the Aberdeen Donside by-election.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    This is a boring day for news. I checked out google, twitter. Nothing is going on, anywhere, between any two persons.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Neil said:

    @TSE

    I have seen him bowl wonderfully at the death. But his recent England stats (actually his England career stats) are horrific. I am available to console him when the inevitable happens.

    Paddy Power are being very enterprising - 4 markets on a Newark by-election already! And they have a market on the Aberdeen Donside by-election.

    Ladbrokes have a few markets on Aberdeen as well.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/aberdeen-donside-by-election/winning-party
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Carola said:

    Swingvoters blundering around in a mire of meh.

    OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?

    'The world has changed. Britain is in a global race. To succeed in that race, we are backing people who want to work hard & get on in life... We're on the right track we’ve cut the deficit by a third, helped businesses to create 1.25 million new jobs & fixing welfare to make work pay... We are unlocking the aspirations of a nation, backing people who want to work hard and get on. We're making our country competitive again.'

    *loses will to live*
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Ladbrokes have a few markets on Aberdeen as well.

    I might have seen those if I could work their website. Someone please sort that out.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    FPT

    Ed in his flip flops.

    April 2013

    '“Of course we look at all these issues but as Ed made clear twice in the interview Labour supports the Winter Fuel Allowance. Labour introduced the Winter Fuel Allowance. He made clear in his interview in January with James Landale in January that universality is “part of the bedrock” of our system. The position has not changed.”

    June 2013

    ''A future Labour government would scrap the winter fuel allowance for over half a million richer pensioners, the shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, will announce on Monday, as part of attempts to prove the party is ready to take tough spending decisions.'
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Hey TSE, it has taken me the best part of the weekend to get through the 300 plus pages of the OECD Economic Outlook. Now you change the thread!


    You need to get out more.
    If I could get up more, I would.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2013
    @Neil

    Leaving aside the fact last night I was subjected to a video of Linda Martin covering a Daft Punk's song....here's the Sab Dance leaflet for the Euro selection
    http://www.sebdance.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/seb-dance-leaflet.pdf
    but I guess it's difficult to beat the video at the bottom of this page: you need to have a quite big ego and/or self-confidence to produce it
    http://www.afzalkhan.org.uk/
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    globalism r us
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Neil said:


    Ladbrokes have a few markets on Aberdeen as well.

    I might have seen those if I could work their website. Someone please sort that out.
    I've stopped using the ladbrokes website, and see what's on up via oddschecker.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    How on earth is saving £100m a tough spending decision?

    500,000 pensioners @ £200 = £100m.

    It is less than ONE THOUSANDTH of the deficit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What is that smell?
    leading Labour Party figures no longer believe in the top down model that was meant to make real that vision of a "new Jerusalem". Mukul Devichand hears from leading Labour Party figures who want a radical new welfare settlement, saying the state itself is to blame for society's ills as much as the market.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01sm2g0
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Got to say I'm not a fan of the new layout of the Ladbrokes site.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Swingvoters blundering around in a mire of meh.

    OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?

    'The world has changed. Britain is in a global race. To succeed in that race, we are backing people who want to work hard & get on in life... We're on the right track we’ve cut the deficit by a third, helped businesses to create 1.25 million new jobs & fixing welfare to make work pay... We are unlocking the aspirations of a nation, backing people who want to work hard and get on. We're making our country competitive again.'

    *loses will to live*
    Carola.

    The key word is "competitive". It signals the Berlin-London, Merkel-Cameron axis on EU reform.

    The whole statement translates perfectly to German but not to French.

    That is its point.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    What is that smell?

    leading Labour Party figures no longer believe in the top down model that was meant to make real that vision of a "new Jerusalem". Mukul Devichand hears from leading Labour Party figures who want a radical new welfare settlement, saying the state itself is to blame for society's ills as much as the market.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01sm2g0

    " Ed Miliband's widely applauded "One Nation" conference speech last year was written by "Blue Labour" godfather Marc Stears. "

    So EdM's deeply personal and sincere conference speech was written for him by a Labour party hack.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Got to say I'm not a fan of the new layout of the Ladbrokes site.

    No one is.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Swingvoters blundering around in a mire of meh.

    OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?

    'The world has changed. Britain is in a global race. To succeed in that race, we are backing people who want to work hard & get on in life... We're on the right track we’ve cut the deficit by a third, helped businesses to create 1.25 million new jobs & fixing welfare to make work pay... We are unlocking the aspirations of a nation, backing people who want to work hard and get on. We're making our country competitive again.'

    *loses will to live*
    Carola.

    The key word is "competitive". It signals the Berlin-London, Merkel-Cameron axis on EU reform.

    The whole statement translates perfectly to German but not to French.

    That is its point.

    You'd find the upside in a dose of the clap Avery. If you caught it from a Tory. I admire your sunny disposition.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    tim said:

    Carola said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Swingvoters blundering around in a mire of meh.

    OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?

    'The world has changed. Britain is in a global race. To succeed in that race, we are backing people who want to work hard & get on in life... We're on the right track we’ve cut the deficit by a third, helped businesses to create 1.25 million new jobs & fixing welfare to make work pay... We are unlocking the aspirations of a nation, backing people who want to work hard and get on. We're making our country competitive again.'

    *loses will to live*
    Carola.

    The key word is "competitive". It signals the Berlin-London, Merkel-Cameron axis on EU reform.

    The whole statement translates perfectly to German but not to French.

    That is its point.

    You'd find the upside in a dose of the clap Avery. If you caught it from a Tory. I admire your sunny disposition.
    Upside Downside

    @Salon: Michael Douglas says his throat cancer was caused by HPV, "which actually comes about from cunnilingus." http://t.co/KIP17dv52K
    Yes I thought of that as I was replying!

    (Fantastic goal from Rooney... sadly it spurred the Brazilians on).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LabourList: Nearly half of all voters don't trust Labour on the economy, our exclusive poll reveals http://labli.st/ZEL0um
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Carola said:

    tim said:

    Carola said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Swingvoters blundering around in a mire of meh.

    OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?

    'The world has changed. Britain is in a global race. To succeed in that race, we are backing people who want to work hard & get on in life... We're on the right track we’ve cut the deficit by a third, helped businesses to create 1.25 million new jobs & fixing welfare to make work pay... We are unlocking the aspirations of a nation, backing people who want to work hard and get on. We're making our country competitive again.'

    *loses will to live*
    Carola.

    The key word is "competitive". It signals the Berlin-London, Merkel-Cameron axis on EU reform.

    The whole statement translates perfectly to German but not to French.

    That is its point.

    You'd find the upside in a dose of the clap Avery. If you caught it from a Tory. I admire your sunny disposition.
    Upside Downside

    @Salon: Michael Douglas says his throat cancer was caused by HPV, "which actually comes about from cunnilingus." http://t.co/KIP17dv52K
    Yes I thought of that as I was replying!

    (Fantastic goal from Rooney... sadly it spurred the Brazilians on).
    I would be very cautious of taking up tim's point, Carola.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Carola said:

    Swingvoters blundering around in a mire of meh.

    OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?

    All parties give their MPs standard handouts explaining why all current policies are wonderful - I used to despise them and refused to use them. Depressing if it's now spread to tweets! If you unfollow them and tell them why maybe it'll learn them.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Swingvoters blundering around in a mire of meh.

    OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?

    All parties give their MPs standard handouts explaining why all current policies are wonderful - I used to despise them and refused to use them. Depressing if it's now spread to tweets! If you unfollow them and tell them why maybe it'll learn them.

    Yep, I thought as much... I'm just trying to figure out what's going through his mind as he tweets that stuff. I won't unfollow, mainly because I like reading the replies. (I resist... I don't want to add to his agony and - surely! - self-loathing).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AveryLP said:

    Hey TSE, it has taken me the best part of the weekend to get through the 300 plus pages of the OECD Economic Outlook. Now you change the thread!

    FPT

    Is this more good news?

    Avery, my dear, economic forecasts from 2018-60 are worth the square root of bugger all...

    Cute try though
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeL said:

    How on earth is saving £100m a tough spending decision?

    500,000 pensioners @ £200 = £100m.

    It is less than ONE THOUSANDTH of the deficit.

    £100m here, £100m there and you are soon talking about serious money

    The government should be doing what it can, within the available budget. £100m given to people who don't need it should either not be spent (and taxes lowered) or it should be spent more productively.

    The only reason for not cutting it is that the PM gave his word it wouldn't be cut.

    Blame Labour for stopping the Tories making that particular saving.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    Hey TSE, it has taken me the best part of the weekend to get through the 300 plus pages of the OECD Economic Outlook. Now you change the thread!

    FPT

    Is this more good news?

    Avery, my dear, economic forecasts from 2018-60 are worth the square root of bugger all...

    Cute try though
    I am merely noting the glee with which Ed Conway is now dancing to the austere tune of the OECD.

    A month has hardly passed since he was playing the bitch to the IMF's Chief Economist.

    And the long term forecasts do make the same point that both tim and Neil have been making in their own unique ways over the past few years.

    I am not one to argue with such scholars.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AveryLP said:

    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    Hey TSE, it has taken me the best part of the weekend to get through the 300 plus pages of the OECD Economic Outlook. Now you change the thread!

    FPT

    Is this more good news?

    Avery, my dear, economic forecasts from 2018-60 are worth the square root of bugger all...

    Cute try though
    I am merely noting the glee with which Ed Conway is now dancing to the austere tune of the OECD.

    A month has hardly passed since he was playing the bitch to the IMF's Chief Economist.

    And the long term forecasts do make the same point that both tim and Neil have been making in their different ways over the past few years.

    I am not one to argue with such scholars.

    Tell you what: I'll bet you £1 million, to be settled by our estates (if necessary) in 2060, that the OECD's forecasts are wrong.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe it's time to take a trip back to March 1982:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVKIFfwWRg8
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's not so much the venality of our legislators that's depressing as the sheer lack of ambition of the venality. If our legislators can be bought, could they at least make themselves high class hookers rather than the sort that operate out of dingy massage parlours in the riffier suburbs?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    antifrank said:

    It's not so much the venality of our legislators that's depressing as the sheer lack of ambition of the venality. If our legislators can be bought, could they at least make themselves high class hookers rather than the sort that operate out of dingy massage parlours in the riffier suburbs?

    You must have missed the career of Tony Blair.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    Hey TSE, it has taken me the best part of the weekend to get through the 300 plus pages of the OECD Economic Outlook. Now you change the thread!

    FPT

    Is this more good news?

    Avery, my dear, economic forecasts from 2018-60 are worth the square root of bugger all...

    Cute try though
    I am merely noting the glee with which Ed Conway is now dancing to the austere tune of the OECD.

    A month has hardly passed since he was playing the bitch to the IMF's Chief Economist.

    And the long term forecasts do make the same point that both tim and Neil have been making in their different ways over the past few years.

    I am not one to argue with such scholars.

    Tell you what: I'll bet you £1 million, to be settled by our estates (if necessary) in 2060, that the OECD's forecasts are wrong.

    To reply with one of the very few paragraphs of note I read on an Australian blog written by a stimulus driven Krugmanite:

    Now lets be clear. I am a time-series econometrician which means I understand the concept of forecast errors and the need to qualify one’s forward-looking projections. Uncertainty stops us knowing what the future holds and while econometric models can be helpful there is always error. So my criticisms are not that the OECD (or bank economists) or anyone else makes forecasts that are later shown to be inaccurate.

    Forecasts are made to be wrong, Charles. If the future was certain there would be no need for them.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AveryLP said:

    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    Hey TSE, it has taken me the best part of the weekend to get through the 300 plus pages of the OECD Economic Outlook. Now you change the thread!

    FPT

    Is this more good news?

    Avery, my dear, economic forecasts from 2018-60 are worth the square root of bugger all...

    Cute try though
    I am merely noting the glee with which Ed Conway is now dancing to the austere tune of the OECD.

    A month has hardly passed since he was playing the bitch to the IMF's Chief Economist.

    And the long term forecasts do make the same point that both tim and Neil have been making in their different ways over the past few years.

    I am not one to argue with such scholars.

    Tell you what: I'll bet you £1 million, to be settled by our estates (if necessary) in 2060, that the OECD's forecasts are wrong.

    To reply with one of the very few paragraphs of note I read on an Australian blog written by a stimulus driven Krugmanite:

    Now lets be clear. I am a time-series econometrician which means I understand the concept of forecast errors and the need to qualify one’s forward-looking projections. Uncertainty stops us knowing what the future holds and while econometric models can be helpful there is always error. So my criticisms are not that the OECD (or bank economists) or anyone else makes forecasts that are later shown to be inaccurate.

    Forecasts are made to be wrong, Charles. If the future was certain there would be no need for them.
    Darn. My cunning plan to manage an inheritance tax liability foiled at the last minute.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Thought these looked interesting: LOL

    Sam Launder ‏@SamuelLaunder
    SURVATION SURVEY YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE VOTERS
    LABOUR 41.4%
    UKIP 27.1%
    CON 12.5%
    LIBDEMS 8.7%
    GREENS 6.4%
    ----------------------
    General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015
    SURVATION SURVEY NORTH EAST VOTERS
    UKIP 36.8%
    LABOUR 36.2%
    CON 14.4%
    GREEN 2.4%
    LIBDEMS 2.3%
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    Hey TSE, it has taken me the best part of the weekend to get through the 300 plus pages of the OECD Economic Outlook. Now you change the thread!

    FPT

    Is this more good news?

    Avery, my dear, economic forecasts from 2018-60 are worth the square root of bugger all...

    Cute try though
    I am merely noting the glee with which Ed Conway is now dancing to the austere tune of the OECD.

    A month has hardly passed since he was playing the bitch to the IMF's Chief Economist.

    And the long term forecasts do make the same point that both tim and Neil have been making in their different ways over the past few years.

    I am not one to argue with such scholars.

    Tell you what: I'll bet you £1 million, to be settled by our estates (if necessary) in 2060, that the OECD's forecasts are wrong.

    To reply with one of the very few paragraphs of note I read on an Australian blog written by a stimulus driven Krugmanite:

    Now lets be clear. I am a time-series econometrician which means I understand the concept of forecast errors and the need to qualify one’s forward-looking projections. Uncertainty stops us knowing what the future holds and while econometric models can be helpful there is always error. So my criticisms are not that the OECD (or bank economists) or anyone else makes forecasts that are later shown to be inaccurate.

    Forecasts are made to be wrong, Charles. If the future was certain there would be no need for them.
    Darn. My cunning plan to manage an inheritance tax liability foiled at the last minute.
    By 2060 £1 000 000 should buy you a cup of tea, if QE continues at its current rate!

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ALP, if you are still about, could you enlighten us as to why the OECD has marked down the forecasts so much for the Scandanavian countries, Netherlands, Czech and Slovakia? yet Hungary seems to be upgraded?

    I am sure that they have their reasons, but what is going on?

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2013
    I believe they are the regional subsample of the national poll.
    They are often unreliable on their own. For ex in this poll, you have UKIP just ahead in NE but Labour outpolling them 3 to 1 in South West and leading them by 10+ in South East. And Lab and Con being neck and neck in Scotland.
    MikeK said:

    Thought these looked interesting: LOL

    Sam Launder ‏@SamuelLaunder
    SURVATION SURVEY YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE VOTERS
    LABOUR 41.4%
    UKIP 27.1%
    CON 12.5%
    LIBDEMS 8.7%
    GREENS 6.4%
    ----------------------
    General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015
    SURVATION SURVEY NORTH EAST VOTERS
    UKIP 36.8%
    LABOUR 36.2%
    CON 14.4%
    GREEN 2.4%
    LIBDEMS 2.3%

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013

    ALP, if you are still about, could you enlighten us as to why the OECD has marked down the forecasts so much for the Scandanavian countries, Netherlands, Czech and Slovakia? yet Hungary seems to be upgraded?

    I am sure that they have their reasons, but what is going on?

    There is no obvious reason stated for such a disproportionate revision.

    OECD EO 93 (Jun 2013) Hungary Real GDP Growth Forecast 2013 = 0.51, 2014 = 1.26
    OECD EO 92 (Dec 2012) Hungary Real GDP Growth Forecast 2013 = (0.13), 2014 = 1.16

    So the major 'turnaround' is in the 2013 figures.

    The main improvement over expectation made by Hungary in 2012 has been in deficit reduction:

    The 2012 budget deficit, at 2% of GDP, turned out substantially smaller than expected due to strong tax revenue increases, improved spending control and sizeable net one-off proceeds (worth 0.7% of GDP, according to official estimates). The authorities remain committed to the objective of exiting from the excessive deficit procedure, and their recent Convergence Programme has set deficit targets of 2.7% of GDP for both 2013 and 2014 (no one-offs being envisaged), while planning a strong increase in public investment in tandem with growing EU transfers.

    I think we need to know what the "net one-off proceeds (worth 0.7% of GDP)" are. I don't and the OECD doesn't give further details.

    Otherwise the OECD paint a picture of an economy struggling successfully but slowly with a broad range of problems. Hungary was in recession through 2012 but is expected to grow this year, unlike the Eurozone countries who are forecast to remain in recession. No indication though why movement to growth should have higher velocity than in other similar economies, though it should be noted that Austria and Switzerland are outperforming the rest of developed Europe in growth.

    Perhaps antifrank has bought the Elisabeth Bridge in Budapest from the Hungarian State?




  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    All parties give their MPs standard handouts explaining why all current policies are wonderful - I used to despise them and refused to use them.

    Ah, another of my naive idealistic beliefs shattered. I'd always thought of you as relentlessly on-message.

    Do the shadowy figures moving behind the scenes to fix the Broxtowe selection know about your dangerously independent behaviour?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @AveryLP The entirely anecdotal impression of my other half and me this year has been that Hungary seems to be showing signs of turning a corner. There is no science about that assessment, just a general sniffing of the air.

    If I buy a bridge, I expect it to be named after me. Given that the Hungarians refused to name their latest major bridge after Stephen Colbert despite him triumphing in a vote, I shall not be purchasing such items from the Hungarian state.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AveryLP said:

    ALP, if you are still about, could you enlighten us as to why the OECD has marked down the forecasts so much for the Scandanavian countries, Netherlands, Czech and Slovakia? yet Hungary seems to be upgraded?

    I am sure that they have their reasons, but what is going on?

    There is no obvious reason stated for such a disproportionate revision.

    OECD EO 93 (Jun 2013) Hungary Real GDP Growth Forecast 2013 = 0.51, 2014 = 1.26
    OECD EO 92 (Dec 2012) Hungary Real GDP Growth Forecast 2013 = (0.13), 2014 = 1.16

    So the major 'turnaround' is in the 2013 figures.

    The main improvement over expectation made by Hungary in 2012 has been in deficit reduction:

    The 2012 budget deficit, at 2% of GDP, turned out substantially smaller than expected due to strong tax revenue increases, improved spending control and sizeable net one-off proceeds (worth 0.7% of GDP, according to official estimates). The authorities remain committed to the objective of exiting from the excessive deficit procedure, and their recent Convergence Programme has set deficit targets of 2.7% of GDP for both 2013 and 2014 (no one-offs being envisaged), while planning a strong increase in public investment in tandem with growing EU transfers.

    I think we need to know what the "net one-off proceeds (worth 0.7% of GDP)" are. I don't and the OECD doesn't give further details.

    Otherwise the OECD paint a picture of an economy struggling successfully but slowly with a broad range of problems. Hungary was in recession through 2012 but is expected to grow this year, unlike the Eurozone countries who are forecast to remain in recession. No indication though why movement to growth should have higher velocity than in other similar economies, though it should be noted that Austria and Switzerland are outperforming the rest of developed Europe in growth.

    Perhaps antifrank has bought the Elisabeth Bridge in Budapest from the Hungarian State?




    Thanks,

    I am planning a trip to Budapest later this year. It does sound like the Magyars could teach our politicians a little about how to get a deficit down!

    It is interesting that the Czechs and Slovaks and Scandanavian countries are being heavuly revised downwards. Presumably this is because of the ongoing Euro Crisis, despite only Finland being in it (I think!)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    antifrank said:

    @AveryLP The entirely anecdotal impression of my other half and me this year has been that Hungary seems to be showing signs of turning a corner. There is no science about that assessment, just a general sniffing of the air.

    If I buy a bridge, I expect it to be named after me. Given that the Hungarians refused to name their latest major bridge after Stephen Colbert despite him triumphing in a vote, I shall not be purchasing such items from the Hungarian state.

    A bridge too far!

    You don't know what the one-off deficit reducing transaction worth 0.7% of GDP was then?

    While you are on I should caution against you hiding Forint under your floorboards.

    The main downside risk stated by the OECD is:

    A sharp depreciation is the main risk

    A sharp depreciation of the forint could have destabilising effects given the still high foreign currency indebtedness of the private and public sectors. The reliance on exports for growth means the recovery will depend strongly on conditions abroad.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    Survation/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Tory/UKIP 45%
    Labour 36%
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013

    AveryLP said:

    ALP, if you are still about, could you enlighten us as to why the OECD has marked down the forecasts so much for the Scandanavian countries, Netherlands, Czech and Slovakia? yet Hungary seems to be upgraded?

    I am sure that they have their reasons, but what is going on?

    There is no obvious reason stated for such a disproportionate revision.

    OECD EO 93 (Jun 2013) Hungary Real GDP Growth Forecast 2013 = 0.51, 2014 = 1.26
    OECD EO 92 (Dec 2012) Hungary Real GDP Growth Forecast 2013 = (0.13), 2014 = 1.16

    So the major 'turnaround' is in the 2013 figures.

    The main improvement over expectation made by Hungary in 2012 has been in deficit reduction:

    The 2012 budget deficit, at 2% of GDP, turned out substantially smaller than expected due to strong tax revenue increases, improved spending control and sizeable net one-off proceeds (worth 0.7% of GDP, according to official estimates). The authorities remain committed to the objective of exiting from the excessive deficit procedure, and their recent Convergence Programme has set deficit targets of 2.7% of GDP for both 2013 and 2014 (no one-offs being envisaged), while planning a strong increase in public investment in tandem with growing EU transfers.

    I think we need to know what the "net one-off proceeds (worth 0.7% of GDP)" are. I don't and the OECD doesn't give further details.

    Otherwise the OECD paint a picture of an economy struggling successfully but slowly with a broad range of problems. Hungary was in recession through 2012 but is expected to grow this year, unlike the Eurozone countries who are forecast to remain in recession. No indication though why movement to growth should have higher velocity than in other similar economies, though it should be noted that Austria and Switzerland are outperforming the rest of developed Europe in growth.

    Perhaps antifrank has bought the Elisabeth Bridge in Budapest from the Hungarian State?




    Thanks,

    I am planning a trip to Budapest later this year. It does sound like the Magyars could teach our politicians a little about how to get a deficit down!

    It is interesting that the Czechs and Slovaks and Scandanavian countries are being heavuly revised downwards. Presumably this is because of the ongoing Euro Crisis, despite only Finland being in it (I think!)
    Generally the Nordics have been fiscally continent and have low levels of debt to GDP (less than 60%). Finland in particular has been a model of Teutonic restraint.

    Without going back to the report for each country, my general recollection of the causes of the slowdown is trade dependence on the Eurozone countries. We are lucky in the UK to have much more broadly based trading partners particularly with the US but also arrangements through the Commonwealth legacy. Such a luxury is not available to the Czechs and Slovaks who (without checking the figures) must be heavily dependent on trade with Germany.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    80s classic — Carly Simon with Coming Around Again:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0A7jAVDPJU&amp
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    @AveryLP The entirely anecdotal impression of my other half and me this year has been that Hungary seems to be showing signs of turning a corner. There is no science about that assessment, just a general sniffing of the air.

    If I buy a bridge, I expect it to be named after me. Given that the Hungarians refused to name their latest major bridge after Stephen Colbert despite him triumphing in a vote, I shall not be purchasing such items from the Hungarian state.

    My Dad has promised someone I will pay for them to have a bridge built (connecting two halves of a university campus). If you want to chip in, we can name it the antifrank bridge...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Carola said:

    Swingvoters blundering around in a mire of meh.

    OT - is anyone else getting robocliche soundbite tweets from (CCHQ via) their MP? This patronising drivel is part of the problem - are they really too thick to realise?

    Another sign that the Tory party (not necessarily the government) is being run by out-of-touch old duffers with no idea how the modern world works. They can't operate a database, they have no idea how social media works and they're so incapable of adjusting to multi-party politics that they keep making up wedge issues that split their own party instead of splitting the voters from Labour.

    Everyone under 40 in CCHQ must be tearing their hair out.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Survation/The Kelly Kronikle:

    Ed'n'Nige 56%
    Coalition Government 35%

    Ouch.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    All parties give their MPs standard handouts explaining why all current policies are wonderful - I used to despise them and refused to use them.

    Ah, another of my naive idealistic beliefs shattered. I'd always thought of you as relentlessly on-message.

    Do the shadowy figures moving behind the scenes to fix the Broxtowe selection know about your dangerously independent behaviour?
    I don't need some hack to write my on-message messages for me, if you see what I mean...

    Those shadowy figures sounds nice - you must introduce me...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Those shadowy figures sounds nice - you must introduce me...

    I presumed he meant the exec of the local branch of Unite ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    AndyJS said:

    80s classic — Carly Simon with Coming Around Again:

    That was from 1987 and nice it was too. This was from five years earlier:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW8UnXzP3ms
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    Survation/The Kelly Kronikle:

    Ed'n'Nige 56%
    Coalition Government 35%

    Ouch.

    The trick, James Kelly, is not minding that it hurts.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "The trick, James Kelly, is not minding that it hurts."

    Or to stick with the ludicrous FPTP, so that Sunil reporting of polling combinations is rendered meaningless.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2013
    @Sunil

    One of the reasons Why is such a great song is that it was produced by Nile Rodgers who has of course just helped out with the new Daft Punk album Random Access Memories.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    "The trick, James Kelly, is not minding that it hurts."

    Or to stick with the ludicrous FPTP, so that Sunil reporting of polling combinations is rendered meaningless.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYNElueJj_w
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    @AndyJS

    I have a Youtube channel now

    http://www.youtube.com/user/SunilP2
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @Sunil

    Sounds interesting...
This discussion has been closed.