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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

The comment in the heading for this post was made to me at a recent social event by someone I regard as a leading Tory insider. It certainly has a ring of truth about it given that the two contenders currently being talked about are Theresa May and Sajid Javid, the culture Secretary.

Read the full story here

Indigo

First ?

Indigo

So a choice between two millionaire ex-bankers then ? who would have thought it.

JohnLoony

I notice there is a feeding frenzy by several European football clubs in their attempts to sign Martin Ødegaard in the run-up to his 16th birthday next week. Will there be a boost for Salmond and the SNP in Gordon if he chooses Celtic? Will UKIP blame the EU if he is poached by Ajax or Bayern Munchen? Will David Cameron hurtle towards a landslide if he is signed by an English club like Liverpool or Arsenal?

It'll be like the hypothetical 1966 (or was it 1970?) World Cup question all over again. Perhaps we should have a PB thread on the subject.

SimonStClare

Morning all

Not sure how relevant the present popularity of future candidates maybe, the tory leadership selection process (whatever form it takes next year and beyond) has a habit of upsetting the best laid plans, etc.



@Isam - Many happy returns of the day ? #bigfourohhh

Alanbrooke

So if oil hits $50 a barrel just how bust would iScotland have been ?

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/dec/10/petrol-1-pound-litre-oil-prices-fall-treasury-committee

JosiasJessop

Alanbrooke said:

So if oil hits $50 a barrel just how bust would iScotland have been ?

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/dec/10/petrol-1-pound-litre-oil-prices-fall-treasury-committee

If it had, you can guarantee that the more febrile of our Scottish cousins would have been blaming it on a conspiracy by the English to drive down prices and ruin heir nirvana ... :-)

JackW

Potential Ukip returners will want to now if Theresa May is past breast feeding age and for that matter if Eric Pickles and his sizable man-boobs will be covered up for the benefit of the nations sanity.

Indigo

JackW said:

Potential Ukip returners will want to now if Theresa May is past breast feeding age and for that matter if Eric Pickles and his sizable man-boobs will be covered up for the benefit of the nations sanity.

“I thank God I wore my corset, because I think my sides have split.”

Alanbrooke

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

So if oil hits $50 a barrel just how bust would iScotland have been ?

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/dec/10/petrol-1-pound-litre-oil-prices-fall-treasury-committee

If it had, you can guarantee that the more febrile of our Scottish cousins would have been blaming it on a conspiracy by the English to drive down prices and ruin heir nirvana ... :-)

You can sort of bet the fulminations would be worst from those not actually resident in Scotland

Casino_Royale

Here's the view of another Tory insider:

"Others are less kind: ‘She is boring. A technocrat. She is Philip Hammond with a fanny. Not interesting, but rendered interesting by circumstance. And that circumstance is that she is a woman. And in an age when the Prime Minister gets it in the neck for refusing to wear a fucking T-shirt that says he is a feminist, that is a rocket boost right underneath you,’ says a senior Conservative party official."

Another:

‘We will never ever forget the nasty party comment,’ says one prominent right-winger. ‘No matter how many terrorists she sends back or tough-sounding speeches she gives. She gave a name to our branding problem and it will be hung around our neck for decades by our enemies. It has damaged us as much as the misquoted “no such thing as society”.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/theresa-may-a-big-beast-in-kitten-heels/

She works hard, and has the detail at her fingertips, but she could not unite the party, or provide inspirational leadership. She was massively unpopular as Tory chairman in opposition - and that hasn't been forgotten. It's true she has a small cadre of loyalists that are firm admirers of hers, but if she looks a real threat the party will unite to stop her. She's had "moderniser" stamped right through her body for so long, it's unshakable. She was one even before Cameron was - the party won't go for that again.

Her record as home secretary has been mixed. She did well with Gary McKinnon and (eventually) with Abu Qatada and the gauntlet speech to the police federation. But that's not enough: minor victories. She's been a big disappointment on immigration and civil liberties, and shows no signs she 'gets' the party's long-term problems and the existential threat from UKIP.

So, I can confidently predict that: Theresa May Will Never Be Conservative Party Leader.

JackW

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Potential Ukip returners will want to now if Theresa May is past breast feeding age and for that matter if Eric Pickles and his sizable man-boobs will be covered up for the benefit of the nations sanity.

“I thank God I wore my corset, because I think my sides have split.”

Is that a direct quote from the head of the RAC after hearing Nigel Farage's position on M4 traffic congestion ??

Indigo

JackW said:

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Potential Ukip returners will want to now if Theresa May is past breast feeding age and for that matter if Eric Pickles and his sizable man-boobs will be covered up for the benefit of the nations sanity.

“I thank God I wore my corset, because I think my sides have split.”

Is that a direct quote from the head of the RAC after hearing Nigel Farage's position on M4 traffic congestion ??

I have no idea. It's strange that people on all wings of politics are open to the idea that adding to our population by the equivalent of Birmingham every 2-3 years might cause problems with public services such as schools and hospitals, but some how people can't see how it might contribute to filling up our roads.

You dont have to view immigration as a good or bad thing to accept the premise. If you accept uncontrolled immigration is a good thing, and therefore that rapid population growth is a good thing, then to be intellectually coherent you have to accept that significant increases in public spending on those services is also a necessary and good thing. If immigration makes the country so much wealth then that shouldn't be a problem, we will have extra money to spend on those services.

But never mind eh, if far easier to throw rocks that engage with the issue.

Financier

Casino_Royale said:

Here's the view of another Tory insider:

"Others are less kind: ‘She is boring. A technocrat. She is Philip Hammond with a fanny. Not interesting, but rendered interesting by circumstance. And that circumstance is that she is a woman. And in an age when the Prime Minister gets it in the neck for refusing to wear a fucking T-shirt that says he is a feminist, that is a rocket boost right underneath you,’ says a senior Conservative party official."

Another:

‘We will never ever forget the nasty party comment,’ says one prominent right-winger. ‘No matter how many terrorists she sends back or tough-sounding speeches she gives. She gave a name to our branding problem and it will be hung around our neck for decades by our enemies. It has damaged us as much as the misquoted “no such thing as society”.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/theresa-may-a-big-beast-in-kitten-heels/

She works hard, and has the detail at her fingertips, but she could not unite the party, or provide inspirational leadership. She was massively unpopular as Tory chairman in opposition - and that hasn't been forgotten. It's true she has a small cadre of loyalists that are firm admirers of hers, but if she looks a real threat the party will unite to stop her. She's had "moderniser" stamped right through her body for so long, it's unshakable. She was one even before Cameron was - the party won't go for that again.

Her record as home secretary has been mixed. She did well with Gary McKinnon and (eventually) with Abu Qatada and the gauntlet speech to the police federation. But that's not enough: minor victories. She's been a big disappointment on immigration and civil liberties, and shows no signs she 'gets' the party's long-term problems and the existential threat from UKIP.

So, I can confidently predict that: Theresa May Will Never Be Conservative Party Leader.

In my meetings with Mrs May, I have found her open to argument, a thoughtful listener and well briefed with facts and information. She could well shake up some of the cruisers in the Conservative ranks who just want an undisturbed and well-fed life. So it is not surprising that some do not want to be woken from their slumbers or i-pads.

Financier

On Today R4 about 6.55am, the Health service was being discussed and the policy of NHS budget holders going out to tender for services to both public and private sectors.

It was revealed that this practice started under Labour and in 2010, 4% of contracts by value were awarded to a mix of private sector, charities and not-for-profit organisations. This has risen to 6% under the Coalition. So not as Labour is making out

JosiasJessop

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Potential Ukip returners will want to now if Theresa May is past breast feeding age and for that matter if Eric Pickles and his sizable man-boobs will be covered up for the benefit of the nations sanity.

“I thank God I wore my corset, because I think my sides have split.”

Is that a direct quote from the head of the RAC after hearing Nigel Farage's position on M4 traffic congestion ??

I have no idea. It's strange that people on all wings of politics are open to the idea that adding to our population by the equivalent of Birmingham every 2-3 years might cause problems with public services such as schools and hospitals, but some how people can't see how it might contribute to filling up our roads.

You dont have to view immigration as a good or bad thing to accept the premise. If you accept uncontrolled immigration is a good thing, and therefore that rapid population growth is a good thing, then to be intellectually coherent you have to accept that significant increases in public spending on those services is also a necessary and good thing. If immigration makes the country so much wealth then that shouldn't be a problem, we will have extra money to spend on those services.

But never mind eh, if far easier to throw rocks that engage with the issue.

I'd suggest that travelling on a Friday afternoon / evening had more to do with the delay than any of Farage's anti-immigrant ravings.

Perhaps he was just trying to cover the fact he was silly not to have planned the journey better?

DecrepitJohnL

Financier said:

On Today R4 about 6.55am, the Health service was being discussed and the policy of NHS budget holders going out to tender for services to both public and private sectors.

It was revealed that this practice started under Labour and in 2010, 4% of contracts by value were awarded to a mix of private sector, charities and not-for-profit organisations. This has risen to 6% under the Coalition. So not as Labour is making out

The Cameroons are Blairites and the Blairites are Cameroons.

Socrates

@Casino the last comment sums it up. Terrible on immigration and terrible on civil liberties. And has overseen cock up after cock up in every area of her domain to boot. The Tories will deserve everything that happens to them if they choose her. Really, who do they think she will expand the Tory coalition to?

JackW

Ruminating on the Dear (Ukip) Leader he will be bursting forth from our idiot box screens on Thursday with his appearance on "Question Time" from Canterbury.

If he makes it in time. The M2 and M20 and Kent is stuffed to the gunnels with immigrant drivers bursting through Dover in their millions. I dare say we'll hear all about it in a revised version of the Canterbury Tales :

The Wife in the Kitchen Tale
The M4 Drivers Tale
The Reckless Pig Dog Tale
The Windy Miller's Tale
The Gay Weatherman's Tale
The Rachel Reeve's Tale
The Claridges Man of Law's Tale
The EU Summoner's Tale

Indigo

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Potential Ukip returners will want to now if Theresa May is past breast feeding age and for that matter if Eric Pickles and his sizable man-boobs will be covered up for the benefit of the nations sanity.

“I thank God I wore my corset, because I think my sides have split.”

Is that a direct quote from the head of the RAC after hearing Nigel Farage's position on M4 traffic congestion ??

I have no idea. It's strange that people on all wings of politics are open to the idea that adding to our population by the equivalent of Birmingham every 2-3 years might cause problems with public services such as schools and hospitals, but some how people can't see how it might contribute to filling up our roads.

You dont have to view immigration as a good or bad thing to accept the premise. If you accept uncontrolled immigration is a good thing, and therefore that rapid population growth is a good thing, then to be intellectually coherent you have to accept that significant increases in public spending on those services is also a necessary and good thing. If immigration makes the country so much wealth then that shouldn't be a problem, we will have extra money to spend on those services.

But never mind eh, if far easier to throw rocks that engage with the issue.

I'd suggest that travelling on a Friday afternoon / evening had more to do with the delay than any of Farage's anti-immigrant ravings.

Perhaps he was just trying to cover the fact he was silly not to have planned the journey better?

That may well be the case. That doesn't invalidate my general premise above that an increasing population must necessarily fill up our roads. That is indefensible is the view that we can accept a rapidly increasing population and not have to increase spending on health, schools and yes, roads to match that population.

Casino_Royale

Financier said:

Casino_Royale said:

Here's the view of another Tory insider:

"Others are less kind: ‘She is boring. A technocrat. She is Philip Hammond with a fanny. Not interesting, but rendered interesting by circumstance. And that circumstance is that she is a woman. And in an age when the Prime Minister gets it in the neck for refusing to wear a fucking T-shirt that says he is a feminist, that is a rocket boost right underneath you,’ says a senior Conservative party official."

Another:

‘We will never ever forget the nasty party comment,’ says one prominent right-winger. ‘No matter how many terrorists she sends back or tough-sounding speeches she gives. She gave a name to our branding problem and it will be hung around our neck for decades by our enemies. It has damaged us as much as the misquoted “no such thing as society”.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/theresa-may-a-big-beast-in-kitten-heels/

She works hard, and has the detail at her fingertips, but she could not unite the party, or provide inspirational leadership. She was massively unpopular as Tory chairman in opposition - and that hasn't been forgotten. It's true she has a small cadre of loyalists that are firm admirers of hers, but if she looks a real threat the party will unite to stop her. She's had "moderniser" stamped right through her body for so long, it's unshakable. She was one even before Cameron was - the party won't go for that again.

Her record as home secretary has been mixed. She did well with Gary McKinnon and (eventually) with Abu Qatada and the gauntlet speech to the police federation. But that's not enough: minor victories. She's been a big disappointment on immigration and civil liberties, and shows no signs she 'gets' the party's long-term problems and the existential threat from UKIP.

So, I can confidently predict that: Theresa May Will Never Be Conservative Party Leader.

In my meetings with Mrs May, I have found her open to argument, a thoughtful listener and well briefed with facts and information. She could well shake up some of the cruisers in the Conservative ranks who just want an undisturbed and well-fed life. So it is not surprising that some do not want to be woken from their slumbers or i-pads.

Totally disagree. I remember asking her a question when she was party chairman. She totally ignored it, and answered a different one (which I hadn't asked) which reinforced her views on modernisation. When I tried to approach her afterwards to follow up on a 1:1 she blanked me, and I got sneering looks from her aide.

I will never forget that.

SandyRentool

The next Conservative leader will be neither white nor a man - if the party has any sense.

What a perfect thread for the PP fan-boy!

Indigo

Financier said:

On Today R4 about 6.55am, the Health service was being discussed and the policy of NHS budget holders going out to tender for services to both public and private sectors.

It was revealed that this practice started under Labour and in 2010, 4% of contracts by value were awarded to a mix of private sector, charities and not-for-profit organisations. This has risen to 6% under the Coalition. So not as Labour is making out

Indeed. I posted a Labour MP blowing his foot off at PMQ on that very subject a few days ago, notice what the adviser being spoken about actually does
youtu.be/wiKNwy_PTEs?t=44s

Casino_Royale

Socrates said:

@Casino the last comment sums it up. Terrible on immigration and terrible on civil liberties. And has overseen cock up after cock up in every area of her domain to boot. The Tories will deserve everything that happens to them if they choose her. Really, who do they think she will expand the Tory coalition to?

The party just won't go for another moderniser in the Cameron mould of the mid-00s. Key to understanding May's chances is who comes out and backs her.

If it's the party loyalists, and Cameron admirers, singing her praises, with nods from the antifrank/rcs1000 etc. of this forum - take note. If she started to attract the Sean Fears, Thomas's, yourself, and other UKIP defectors/sympathisers (whilst getting begruding respect from non-Tories, if not support) then I'll believe she's in with a serious chance.

FalseFlag

Bojo seems to not get it on immigration so is losing my support. A bit of a Ken Clarke, as good as he is he is the wrong side of the most important issue of the day.

Owen Paterson is the only name that stands out otherwise, would be interested in what he has to offer, plus he is white and male.

Would not be surprised if it turns out to be no one on that list.

foxinsoxuk

Indigo said:

Financier said:

On Today R4 about 6.55am, the Health service was being discussed and the policy of NHS budget holders going out to tender for services to both public and private sectors.

It was revealed that this practice started under Labour and in 2010, 4% of contracts by value were awarded to a mix of private sector, charities and not-for-profit organisations. This has risen to 6% under the Coalition. So not as Labour is making out

Indeed. I posted a Labour MP blowing his foot off at PMQ on that very subject a few days ago, notice what the adviser being spoken about actually does
youtu.be/wiKNwy_PTEs?t=44s

It was Tony Blair and Alan Milburn who started the rot of privatisation, with Reid and Brown finding it convenient too.

Privatisation is not inherently a problem, but what is being done is putting private monopolies in place of public ones. All the profiteering of the private sector combined with the customer service of the public sector. The worst of both worlds.

malcolmg

Alanbrooke said:

So if oil hits $50 a barrel just how bust would iScotland have been ?

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/dec/10/petrol-1-pound-litre-oil-prices-fall-treasury-committee

Alan, dear dear the donkeys on here have even infected you. We would not be independent for a long time yet in event of a YES, so it would have had zero impact on us. It will be $200 by that time and we will be getting fleeced even more.

malcolmg

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

So if oil hits $50 a barrel just how bust would iScotland have been ?

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/dec/10/petrol-1-pound-litre-oil-prices-fall-treasury-committee

If it had, you can guarantee that the more febrile of our Scottish cousins would have been blaming it on a conspiracy by the English to drive down prices and ruin heir nirvana ... :-)

You idiot , it is being driven down to punish Little Englanders. They have upset almost everybody in the world with their constant whinging , all except their masters the USA and they would happily bankrupt their lapdog as long as it suits them.

Monksfield

FalseFlag said:

Bojo seems to not get it on immigration so is losing my support. A bit of a Ken Clarke, as good as he is he is the wrong side of the most important issue of the day.

Owen Paterson is the only name that stands out otherwise, would be interested in what he has to offer, plus he is white and male.

Would not be surprised if it turns out to be no one on that list.

The trouble with Paterson is that he's not prepared to listen to evidence. He'd rather listen to what people at the hunt or golf club think. And we all know that whilst with people of a common bent we all like to promote or self-reinforce our favourite popular myths. God knows we see plenty of it here. However, when in a position of power we have a greater level of responsibility to listen and respond to the evidence. Opat failed to do that, dismissing anyone with a different point of view as a blob; that's not a good quality in a leader.

foxinsoxuk

FalseFlag said:

Bojo seems to not get it on immigration so is losing my support. A bit of a Ken Clarke, as good as he is he is the wrong side of the most important issue of the day.

Owen Paterson is the only name that stands out otherwise, would be interested in what he has to offer, plus he is white and male.

Would not be surprised if it turns out to be no one on that list.

As I am not a Tory, my opinion on this next leader market may not be worth much! Though I have bets on Hammond, Gove and Javid. What I do note is that Tories rarely choose the frontrunner and often prefer a dark horse candidate.

Until we know the outcome of the next election (and the effect of UKIP voting) the landscape of Tory leadership candidates is unknown. Personally I think that the kippers are gone for good, and that they are not amenable to a reasonable broad-church approach. Whatever they are offered they will spurn.

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

Socrates said:

@Casino the last comment sums it up. Terrible on immigration and terrible on civil liberties. And has overseen cock up after cock up in every area of her domain to boot. The Tories will deserve everything that happens to them if they choose her. Really, who do they think she will expand the Tory coalition to?

The party just won't go for another moderniser in the Cameron mould of the mid-00s. Key to understanding May's chances is who comes out and backs her.

If it's the party loyalists, and Cameron admirers, singing her praises, with nods from the antifrank/rcs1000 etc. of this forum - take note. If she started to attract the Sean Fears, Thomas's, yourself, and other UKIP defectors/sympathisers (whilst getting begruding respect from non-Tories, if not support) then I'll believe she's in with a serious chance.

You'll be pleased to know that I have never rated Theresa May as a party leader prospect, and following the recent vote fiasco, I expect that she has burned her bridges with too many MPs. If the Conservatives lose the next election and get rid of David Cameron (they shouldn't but they would), they should pick George Osborne if they want to be serious or Boris Johnson if they want to cheer the nation up. Sajid Javid would also be a fair choice if they want a wild card.

Philip Hammond would be Iain Duncan Smith in a better suit. Owen Paterson would be a sign that the Conservatives had found the compromises of power just too difficult.

Indigo

Monksfield said:

The trouble with Paterson is that he's not prepared to listen to evidence. He'd rather listen to what people at the hunt or golf club think.

Its not terribly common to set up a think-tank if you are not interested in evidence and new ideas http://www.uk2020.org.uk/

JosiasJessop

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Potential Ukip returners will want to now if Theresa May is past breast feeding age and for that matter if Eric Pickles and his sizable man-boobs will be covered up for the benefit of the nations sanity.

“I thank God I wore my corset, because I think my sides have split.”

Is that a direct quote from the head of the RAC after hearing Nigel Farage's position on M4 traffic congestion ??

I have no idea. It's strange that people on all wings of politics are open to the idea that adding to our population by the equivalent of Birmingham every 2-3 years might cause problems with public services such as schools and hospitals, but some how people can't see how it might contribute to filling up our roads.

You dont have to view immigration as a good or bad thing to accept the premise. If you accept uncontrolled immigration is a good thing, and therefore that rapid population growth is a good thing, then to be intellectually coherent you have to accept that significant increases in public spending on those services is also a necessary and good thing. If immigration makes the country so much wealth then that shouldn't be a problem, we will have extra money to spend on those services.

But never mind eh, if far easier to throw rocks that engage with the issue.

I'd suggest that travelling on a Friday afternoon / evening had more to do with the delay than any of Farage's anti-immigrant ravings.

Perhaps he was just trying to cover the fact he was silly not to have planned the journey better?

That may well be the case. That doesn't invalidate my general premise above that an increasing population must necessarily fill up our roads. That is indefensible is the view that we can accept a rapidly increasing population and not have to increase spending on health, schools and yes, roads to match that population.

So you agree that Farage was trying to cover up his own mistake by blaming immigrants?

As for your premise: we talked about this the other day. Staying on roads (and rather than trying to spread the conversation), the figures do not *seem* to show a correlation between the number of immigrants and road usage - traffic levels are fairly static at the time we are, according to some, being filled up with immigrants.

Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?

Financier

Fuelling the next generation is downloadable (free) from:

http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/knowledgecentre/fuellingnextgeneration.cfm

SandyRentool

In all seriousness, what is not to like in Priti Patel as the next Tory leader? She is intelligent, articulate, telegenic and has a manner that does not come across as elitist or condescending. She is clearly euro-sceptic, so is more aligned with the Tory rank and file and can pull back Tory-UKIP defectors. Plus, as an Asian woman she will create an appeal to sectors of the electorate who would otherwise not consider voting Conservative.

In contrast, May just looks and sounds like a typical Tory - I would rather have Osborne than her in Number 10.

Financier

Brent Crude is at $65.8 after staging a mini-recovery yesterday.

CD13

There's an odd argument about road congestion and immigration. I'd expect road congestion to become a little more common, especially on a Friday afternoon, if the population increases. It would be very odd if it didn't.

But Farage was making a clumsy political point. I doubt if there was a car load of Polish plumbers in front of him.

Is the increase in population reflected in increased road building? And would we want it to be?

Indigo

JosiasJessop said:

Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?

Or maybe we could look at that the current Tory Immigration Minister says:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11278440/Nigel-Farage-blames-immigration-after-missing-Ukip-reception.html

However, James Brokenshire, the immigration minister, last month said immigration is putting pressure on Britain’s road network.
He dismissed a report that concluded that European migrants make a net economic gain to Britain by saying its “narrow focus” had failed to take into account pressure on infrastructure.
“It’s not properly addressed the issue of the pressures on public services. Those things that I think very rightly concern the public on access to schools, hospitals, roads, housing, why we do need a sustainable immigration system, bringing it down from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands,” Mr Brokenshire said.

Roger

I have an idea. What about Natasha Boulter? She scores a straight 10 on not being a white man and she's surely due a move to the Tories. She's not averse to the odd porkie and she's certainly ambitious.

Financier

Roger said:

I have an idea. What about Natasha Boulter? She scores a straight 10 on not being a white man and she's surely due a move to the Tories. She's not averse to the odd porkie and she's certainly ambitious.

Surely you should welcome her back to Labour as the Prodigal Daughter - would fit in well there.

Casino_Royale

antifrank said:

Casino_Royale said:

Socrates said:

@Casino the last comment sums it up. Terrible on immigration and terrible on civil liberties. And has overseen cock up after cock up in every area of her domain to boot. The Tories will deserve everything that happens to them if they choose her. Really, who do they think she will expand the Tory coalition to?

The party just won't go for another moderniser in the Cameron mould of the mid-00s. Key to understanding May's chances is who comes out and backs her.

If it's the party loyalists, and Cameron admirers, singing her praises, with nods from the antifrank/rcs1000 etc. of this forum - take note. If she started to attract the Sean Fears, Thomas's, yourself, and other UKIP defectors/sympathisers (whilst getting begruding respect from non-Tories, if not support) then I'll believe she's in with a serious chance.

You'll be pleased to know that I have never rated Theresa May as a party leader prospect, and following the recent vote fiasco, I expect that she has burned her bridges with too many MPs. If the Conservatives lose the next election and get rid of David Cameron (they shouldn't but they would), they should pick George Osborne if they want to be serious or Boris Johnson if they want to cheer the nation up. Sajid Javid would also be a fair choice if they want a wild card.

Philip Hammond would be Iain Duncan Smith in a better suit. Owen Paterson would be a sign that the Conservatives had found the compromises of power just too difficult.

Thanks. I don't disagree with you. My choices (for now) would also be Osborne or Javid.

Credibility in rebuilding a broad election winning coalition would be what I'd be looking for, including a robust line on Europe and immigration and demonstrating the Tories are 'on your side' and not the party of the rich/wealthy.

rottenborough

Morning all,

Cheery news then for those of us who have bet on May and held on for some time, playing the long game. I have her at 10/1.

Of course the issue with this poll is it doesn't help us know which two candidates will be put forward for the wider vote by MPs.

CD13

Roger,

"What about Natasha Boulter? She scores a straight 10 on not being a white man and she's surely due a move to the Tories."

That's a good idea! And she's clearly not the brightest.

SquareRoot

Roger said:

I have an idea. What about Natasha Boulter? She scores a straight 10 on not being a white man and she's surely due a move to the Tories. She's not averse to the odd porkie and she's certainly ambitious.

Another one.. so quick to judge without any knowledge of the context of what has been put in the public domain.

JosiasJessop

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?

Or maybe we could look at that the current Tory Immigration Minister says:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11278440/Nigel-Farage-blames-immigration-after-missing-Ukip-reception.html

However, James Brokenshire, the immigration minister, last month said immigration is putting pressure on Britain’s road network.
He dismissed a report that concluded that European migrants make a net economic gain to Britain by saying its “narrow focus” had failed to take into account pressure on infrastructure.
“It’s not properly addressed the issue of the pressures on public services. Those things that I think very rightly concern the public on access to schools, hospitals, roads, housing, why we do need a sustainable immigration system, bringing it down from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands,” Mr Brokenshire said.

And I would ask Brokenshire for evidence for his claims.

Besides, there are several effects here: local and national. Since Farage's journey was along the M4, people picking their kids up from school would have had less of an effect.

Luckyguy1983

I will never get the talking up of May's leadership chances that goes on here.

FalseFlag

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?

Or maybe we could look at that the current Tory Immigration Minister says:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11278440/Nigel-Farage-blames-immigration-after-missing-Ukip-reception.html

However, James Brokenshire, the immigration minister, last month said immigration is putting pressure on Britain’s road network.
He dismissed a report that concluded that European migrants make a net economic gain to Britain by saying its “narrow focus” had failed to take into account pressure on infrastructure.
“It’s not properly addressed the issue of the pressures on public services. Those things that I think very rightly concern the public on access to schools, hospitals, roads, housing, why we do need a sustainable immigration system, bringing it down from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands,” Mr Brokenshire said.

And I would ask Brokenshire for evidence for his claims.

Besides, there are several effects here: local and national. Since Farage's journey was along the M4, people picking their kids up from school would have had less of an effect.

Your evevidence only shows that road use would have declined even further without immigration, or even that natives are opting to use the roads less than would be optimal due to immigrants deterring road use through increased traffic jams.

Sean_F

None of the front runners inspires confidence.

CD13

JJ,

"Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?"

You're not that silly. Who would fund it? Talk about proving the bleeding obvious.

Unless all immigrants refused to use the roads or prevented the current population from driving, they must increase traffic density as long as the population increases. But you know that anyway.

JosiasJessop

CD13 said:

There's an odd argument about road congestion and immigration. I'd expect road congestion to become a little more common, especially on a Friday afternoon, if the population increases. It would be very odd if it didn't.

But Farage was making a clumsy political point. I doubt if there was a car load of Polish plumbers in front of him.

Is the increase in population reflected in increased road building? And would we want it to be?

"I'd expect road congestion to become a little more common"

So would I, but road usage appears to have slowed down during this current period of immigration. If I had time, I'd dig deeper to see if this is real or not.

For imstance in 2012: The volume of all motor vehicle traffic fell slightly by 0.4 per cent to
302.6 billion vehicle miles in 2012. (1)

And there is a useful chart in (2)

It would be interesting to see why: perhaps more use of public transport?

(1): https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/82798/road-traffic-estimates-quarter-4-2012.pdf

(2): https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/279452/140213-road-traffic-estimates-quarter-4-2013.pdf

Ninoinoz

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?

Or maybe we could look at that the current Tory Immigration Minister says:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11278440/Nigel-Farage-blames-immigration-after-missing-Ukip-reception.html

However, James Brokenshire, the immigration minister, last month said immigration is putting pressure on Britain’s road network.
He dismissed a report that concluded that European migrants make a net economic gain to Britain by saying its “narrow focus” had failed to take into account pressure on infrastructure.
“It’s not properly addressed the issue of the pressures on public services. Those things that I think very rightly concern the public on access to schools, hospitals, roads, housing, why we do need a sustainable immigration system, bringing it down from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands,” Mr Brokenshire said.

And I would ask Brokenshire for evidence for his claims.

Besides, there are several effects here: local and national. Since Farage's journey was along the M4, people picking their kids up from school would have had less of an effect.

OK, nice to have it confirmed that you have paid absolutely no attention to my posts as long as I have been posting.

Catholic schools? Ever thought where all those Polish kids went to school?

And where exactly did their mothers give birth? How was the maternity unit your wife gave birth in? The ones in Suffolk barely have English spoken in them.

FalseFlag

George Osborne, like Gordon Brown, inspires hatred amongst too large a segment of the general population. Plus he is the ultimate neo con.

Luckyguy1983

SandyRentool said:

In all seriousness, what is not to like in Priti Patel as the next Tory leader? She is intelligent, articulate, telegenic and has a manner that does not come across as elitist or condescending. She is clearly euro-sceptic, so is more aligned with the Tory rank and file and can pull back Tory-UKIP defectors. Plus, as an Asian woman she will create an appeal to sectors of the electorate who would otherwise not consider voting Conservative.

In contrast, May just looks and sounds like a typical Tory - I would rather have Osborne than her in Number 10.

I agree, Patel would be good. And like Thatcher, she'd be guaranteed to get past the first round. Perhaps that's to whom the quote refers!

NickPalmer

JosiasJessop said:

I'd suggest that travelling on a Friday afternoon / evening had more to do with the delay than any of Farage's anti-immigrant ravings.

Perhaps he was just trying to cover the fact he was silly not to have planned the journey better?

Yes, I remember my dad in the 50s saying he usually reckoned to add an hour to get out of London to any time a distance would normally take. I don't actually think it's got worse, because public transport has improved. Farage's comment shows the danger of being obsessed by one subject, to the point that you see everything related to it. If he'd just said, "Really sorry, I got totally stuck in traffic, I should have left earlier" everyone would have thought fair enough.

Casino_Royale said:

Here's the view of another Tory insider:

"Others are less kind: ‘She is boring. A technocrat. She is Philip Hammond with a fanny. Not interesting, but rendered interesting by circumstance. And that circumstance is that she is a woman. And in an age when the Prime Minister gets it in the neck for refusing to wear a fucking T-shirt that says he is a feminist, that is a rocket boost right underneath you,’ says a senior Conservative party official."

The phrasing of this IMO tells us a lot about the Conservative Party's problems with women. And I'm not talking about the swearing.

Indigo

NickPalmer said:

The phrasing of this IMO tells us a lot about the Conservative Party's problems with women. And I'm not talking about the swearing.

Sorry it slipped my mind for a moment, how many female party leaders has Labour had ?

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Palmer, if the description had been that Hammond was May with a cock, would you be so offended?

Ninoinoz

Indigo said:

NickPalmer said:

The phrasing of this IMO tells us a lot about the Conservative Party's problems with women. And I'm not talking about the swearing.

Sorry it slipped my mind for a moment, how many female party leaders has Labour had ?

Margaret Beckett as caretaker leader?

TheWatcher

NickPalmer said:

JosiasJessop said:

I'd suggest that travelling on a Friday afternoon / evening had more to do with the delay than any of Farage's anti-immigrant ravings.

Perhaps he was just trying to cover the fact he was silly not to have planned the journey better?

Yes, I remember my dad in the 50s saying he usually reckoned to add an hour to get out of London to any time a distance would normally take. I don't actually think it's got worse, because public transport has improved. Farage's comment shows the danger of being obsessed by one subject, to the point that you see everything related to it. If he'd just said, "Really sorry, I got totally stuck in traffic, I should have left earlier" everyone would have thought fair enough.

Casino_Royale said:

Here's the view of another Tory insider:

"Others are less kind: ‘She is boring. A technocrat. She is Philip Hammond with a fanny. Not interesting, but rendered interesting by circumstance. And that circumstance is that she is a woman. And in an age when the Prime Minister gets it in the neck for refusing to wear a fucking T-shirt that says he is a feminist, that is a rocket boost right underneath you,’ says a senior Conservative party official."

The phrasing of this IMO tells us a lot about the Conservative Party's problems with women. And I'm not talking about the swearing.

Usual nonsense. It tells us what one Tory thinks about women.

Following your logic we should judge the entire Labour Party on the basis of the comments from Austin Mitchell about Louise Mensch.

Roger

Financier

"Surely you should welcome her back to Labour as the Prodigal Daughter - would fit in well there."

Having ooened with the 'Edwina gambit' I thoght she had to be a Tory?

NickPalmer

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

Roger

CD13

"That's a good idea! And she's clearly not the brightest."

In the IDS mould then. It just gets better

JosiasJessop

Ninoinoz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?

Or maybe we could look at that the current Tory Immigration Minister says:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11278440/Nigel-Farage-blames-immigration-after-missing-Ukip-reception.html

However, James Brokenshire, the immigration minister, last month said immigration is putting pressure on Britain’s road network.
He dismissed a report that concluded that European migrants make a net economic gain to Britain by saying its “narrow focus” had failed to take into account pressure on infrastructure.
“It’s not properly addressed the issue of the pressures on public services. Those things that I think very rightly concern the public on access to schools, hospitals, roads, housing, why we do need a sustainable immigration system, bringing it down from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands,” Mr Brokenshire said.

And I would ask Brokenshire for evidence for his claims.

Besides, there are several effects here: local and national. Since Farage's journey was along the M4, people picking their kids up from school would have had less of an effect.

OK, nice to have it confirmed that you have paid absolutely no attention to my posts as long as I have been posting.

Catholic schools? Ever thought where all those Polish kids went to school?

And where exactly did their mothers give birth? How was the maternity unit your wife gave birth in? The ones in Suffolk barely have English spoken in them.

My dear Ninoinoz, I luxuriate in every single word of every post of yours. How can anyone not be truly entertained and enlightened by your erudition, compassion, and humour?

Casino_Royale

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

Neither is David Cameron.

Indigo

JosiasJessop said:

CD13 said:

There's an odd argument about road congestion and immigration. I'd expect road congestion to become a little more common, especially on a Friday afternoon, if the population increases. It would be very odd if it didn't.

But Farage was making a clumsy political point. I doubt if there was a car load of Polish plumbers in front of him.

Is the increase in population reflected in increased road building? And would we want it to be?

"I'd expect road congestion to become a little more common"

So would I, but road usage appears to have slowed down during this current period of immigration. If I had time, I'd dig deeper to see if this is real or not.

The Eddington Transport Study
http://www.dft.gov.uk/adobepdf/187604/206711/mainreport/mainreportvolume2.pdf/mainreportvol2chap23.pdf

3.13 On the roads there is a forecast 12 per cent growth in heavy goods vehicles over the
period to 2025, primarily on inter-urban routes and in the areas around ports and large urban
areas, and a 70 per cent forecast increase in supporting light goods vehicle traffic.
3.14 These increases are driven by:
• rising population;
• household incomes rising in real terms;
• car ownership continuing to rise (especially in areas that currently have lower
levels);
• a continuation of current trends in migration; and
• real reductions in the cost of travel (particularly car travel)

SandyRentool

With the news that the DUP do not want to enter a coalition government I can no longer wind up DECC civil servants that Ian Paisley Jr will be their next Sec of State. Shame!

JosiasJessop

CD13 said:

JJ,

"Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?"

You're not that silly. Who would fund it? Talk about proving the bleeding obvious.

Unless all immigrants refused to use the roads or prevented the current population from driving, they must increase traffic density as long as the population increases. But you know that anyway.

That is an assumption, and such assumptions are often proved false. For one thing, you ignore public transport: if new immigrants are mainly found in conurbations that have good public transport, is it more likely that they will use public transport than the general population? And is it a small effect compared to (say) non-immigrant population growth and increasing GDP?

The assumption *may* be right (although I doubt it); stating it to be correct with evidence is dangerous. What Farage said was just stupid and nasty.

The second link I gave below contains interesting figures. I'd like to see comparisons with GDP, population growth and immigration levels, but I don't have the time to trawl through the figures.

Barnesian

Ninoinoz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?

Or maybe we could look at that the current Tory Immigration Minister says:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11278440/Nigel-Farage-blames-immigration-after-missing-Ukip-reception.html

However, James Brokenshire, the immigration minister, last month said immigration is putting pressure on Britain’s road network.
He dismissed a report that concluded that European migrants make a net economic gain to Britain by saying its “narrow focus” had failed to take into account pressure on infrastructure.
“It’s not properly addressed the issue of the pressures on public services. Those things that I think very rightly concern the public on access to schools, hospitals, roads, housing, why we do need a sustainable immigration system, bringing it down from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands,” Mr Brokenshire said.

And I would ask Brokenshire for evidence for his claims.

Besides, there are several effects here: local and national. Since Farage's journey was along the M4, people picking their kids up from school would have had less of an effect.

OK, nice to have it confirmed that you have paid absolutely no attention to my posts as long as I have been posting.

Catholic schools? Ever thought where all those Polish kids went to school?

And where exactly did their mothers give birth? How was the maternity unit your wife gave birth in? The ones in Suffolk barely have English spoken in them.

Net immigration is adding about 0.5% a year to our population.

To a first approximation, they are adding 0.5% pa to GDP (and prevented Balls' douible dip recession). They are also adding 0.5% to the tax take.

On the other hand they add 0.5% pa to the demand for NHS, schools, roads, care homes etc.

It balances out.

Actually, it probably doesn't because, on average, immigrants are younger and more likely to be producers of GDP than consumers of care homes and the NHS.

I do think that GDP figures and NHS spending should be expressed in amount per head rather than the grand total to get a feel of what is really going on.

TheWatcher

Forage's latest 'let's blame everything on immigrants', rather than poor journey planning is highly entertaining.

Will UKIP be putting forward plans for a driving test for foreigners in their manifesto?

Questions about Stirling Mosses inside leg measurement and 'can you draw a picture of a Humber Snipe?' Should weed out the interlopers.

FalseFlag

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

So did Jack Straw, for the same reason, it's what the Americans want.

Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president, correctly said that Turkey was not a European country and that inviting it into the European Union would mean "the end of Europe."

Turkey's history of Ottoman relationships in the eastern Mediterranean, Egypt and Arabia, its experience in resolving problems of the relationship between secular government and Islamic practices and belief, suggest a better role for Turkey in a Levantine association. A leadership role for Turkey in a Levantine association is also consistent with its relationship to Israel, brokered by the USA.

It is time for a new European relationship with Turkey and the Near and Middle East. Here is a better idea than Turkey in the EU.

TOPPING

God what an uninspiring bunch. May might. But how uninteresting is that - I can't see anyone manning the barricades (or storming them) on her behalf.

As for Polish plumbers heading out on the M4 to their country pads of a Friday pm? Can't quite see it.

AlastairMeeks

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

One of the reasons that Europhobia is so strong is because in Britain those who are not irretrievably opposed to the EU have expressed no coherent vision of what it should look like, so the headbangers have been allowed to draw up a bizarre EUSSR caricature.

If the EU is to mean anything, it should among other things act as a guiding light towards liberal democracy for its neighbours - not just for idealistic reasons but because they make for much better neighbours. We should not be closing the door on Turkey, Ukraine, Serbia, Albania, Moldova or Georgia, even if their paths to ultimate membership may be long. Turkey's route to membership of the EU may be difficult, but is it necessarily harder than Spain's was? Or would we rather let Turkey slide into Islamist authoritarianism because it is easier?

David Cameron is often, and often rightly, accused of putting tactics ahead of national interest. On this he is doing the reverse.

TOPPING

@NickPalmer‌

"The phrasing of this IMO tells us a lot about the Conservative Party's problems with women. And I'm not talking about the swearing."

I'm in the Conservative Party, Nick and I don't have a problem with women (any more than the Labour Party has a problem with women. Or jews. Or Luciana Berger, who is both a woman and a jew).

I am just underwhelmed by Theresa although have no doubt she could be a competent if uninspiring leader.

JosiasJessop

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

CD13 said:

There's an odd argument about road congestion and immigration. I'd expect road congestion to become a little more common, especially on a Friday afternoon, if the population increases. It would be very odd if it didn't.

But Farage was making a clumsy political point. I doubt if there was a car load of Polish plumbers in front of him.

Is the increase in population reflected in increased road building? And would we want it to be?

"I'd expect road congestion to become a little more common"

So would I, but road usage appears to have slowed down during this current period of immigration. If I had time, I'd dig deeper to see if this is real or not.

The Eddington Transport Study
http://www.dft.gov.uk/adobepdf/187604/206711/mainreport/mainreportvolume2.pdf/mainreportvol2chap23.pdf

3.13 On the roads there is a forecast 12 per cent growth in heavy goods vehicles over the
period to 2025, primarily on inter-urban routes and in the areas around ports and large urban
areas, and a 70 per cent forecast increase in supporting light goods vehicle traffic.
3.14 These increases are driven by:
• rising population;
• household incomes rising in real terms;
• car ownership continuing to rise (especially in areas that currently have lower
levels);
• a continuation of current trends in migration; and
• real reductions in the cost of travel (particularly car travel)

Thanks for that. So immigration is one and a half factors out of several (and I'm surprised the economy is not on there). Farage could easily have said: "Sorry I'm late, but the motorway was busier than I expected. I guess that's the price to pay for a booming economy."

But he chose to bash the immigrant.

(As an aside, your link did not work for me - it can be found at http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20090104005813/http://www.dft.gov.uk/162259/187604/206711/volume2.pdf )

Roger

"Mr. Palmer, if the description had been that Hammond was May with a cock, would you be so offended?"

Has anybody checked?

FalseFlag

antifrank said:

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

One of the reasons that Europhobia is so strong is because in Britain those who are not irretrievably opposed to the EU have expressed no coherent vision of what it should look like, so the headbangers have been allowed to draw up a bizarre EUSSR caricature.

If the EU is to mean anything, it should among other things act as a guiding light towards liberal democracy for its neighbours - not just for idealistic reasons but because they make for much better neighbours. We should not be closing the door on Turkey, Ukraine, Serbia, Albania, Moldova or Georgia, even if their paths to ultimate membership may be long. Turkey's route to membership of the EU may be difficult, but is it necessarily harder than Spain's was? Or would we rather let Turkey slide into Islamist authoritarianism because it is easier?

David Cameron is often, and often rightly, accused of putting tactics ahead of national interest. On this he is doing the reverse.

You are pushing a negative argument to support another UK/US misleading policy. Have you seen the poverty of eastern Turkey, much if it former Armenian territory, or the mass unemployment across Europe, the ghettos that have arisen in our cities or the terrorist attacks we have suffered?

OldKingCole

TOPPING said:

God what an uninspiring bunch. May might. But how uninteresting is that - I can't see anyone manning the barricades (or storming them) on her behalf.

As for Polish plumbers heading out on the M4 to their country pads of a Friday pm? Can't quite see it.

In the early years of this century I had lived near Colchester and worked in the South of Essex; meant that every day I drove along the A12 between Colchester and Chelmsford. Friday evenings were always a pain, with, I assumed, people from London heading to their Suffolk cottages. An assumtion fuelled by the fact that it was always worse in summer and just before school holidays.
Might have all been going to the ferry at Harwich, I suppose!

OldKingCole

FalseFlag said:

antifrank said:

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

One of the reasons that Europhobia is so strong is because in Britain those who are not irretrievably opposed to the EU have expressed no coherent vision of what it should look like, so the headbangers have been allowed to draw up a bizarre EUSSR caricature.

If the EU is to mean anything, it should among other things act as a guiding light towards liberal democracy for its neighbours - not just for idealistic reasons but because they make for much better neighbours. We should not be closing the door on Turkey, Ukraine, Serbia, Albania, Moldova or Georgia, even if their paths to ultimate membership may be long. Turkey's route to membership of the EU may be difficult, but is it necessarily harder than Spain's was? Or would we rather let Turkey slide into Islamist authoritarianism because it is easier?

David Cameron is often, and often rightly, accused of putting tactics ahead of national interest. On this he is doing the reverse.

You are pushing a negative argument to support another UK/US misleading policy. Have you seen the poverty of eastern Turkey, much if it former Armenian territory, or the mass unemployment across Europe, the ghettos that have arisen in our cities or the terrorist attacks we have suffered?

How many Turks have been involved in jihad?

bigjohnowls

They come over here using our roads


FFS get a grip.

Morris_Dancer

King Cole, Turkey's behaviour regarding ISIS, most especially over Kobane, has not necessarily made it appear a bastion of reason where that sort of thing is concerned.

NickPalmer

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

Neither is David Cameron.

No?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html?WT.mc_id=e_3746653&WT.tsrc=email&etype=politics&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_PAM_New_2014_12_10&utm_campaign=3746653

It's not the migrants that concern me so much as the instability: there seems a non-trivial risk that they'll end up with a virtual dictatorship of one kind of another. I take antifrank's point that the EU promotes stability, and it's not done a bad job in e.g. Poland, but there are limits to what it can influence, as we see in Hungary.

I dunno - I can see arguments both ways to be honest.

TGOHF

On thread - Cam will be the last out of the big party leaders.

Probably outlive some of the minor ones too - like the Greens and the Kippers.

Indigo

OldKingCole said:

TOPPING said:

God what an uninspiring bunch. May might. But how uninteresting is that - I can't see anyone manning the barricades (or storming them) on her behalf.

As for Polish plumbers heading out on the M4 to their country pads of a Friday pm? Can't quite see it.

In the early years of this century I had lived near Colchester and worked in the South of Essex; meant that every day I drove along the A12 between Colchester and Chelmsford. Friday evenings were always a pain, with, I assumed, people from London heading to their Suffolk cottages. An assumtion fuelled by the fact that it was always worse in summer and just before school holidays.
Might have all been going to the ferry at Harwich, I suppose!

Farage was (just for a change) a little misquoted as well. The actually words spoken on Channel 4 News were

".. what it does have to do with is a country in which the population is going through the roof chiefly because of open-door immigration and the fact the M4 is not as navigable as it used to be."

Not that the M4 was packed with Polish Plumbers, but that the M4 is horrible anyway, which it certainly is having done Swindon to Bristol twice a day for several years. His general point about population going through the roof is manifestly the case, and the DFT study I cited shows that that is one of the key factors affecting road congestion. I dont particularly support Farage, although I have some sympathy with UKIP's aim, but I am allergic to bullshit, and the media is killing itself to misinterpret what UKIP says at the moment.

TheScreamingEagles

It depends on the manner of Dave's departure.

If Tory hopes are realised next year, and we continue in power post May 2015, then Dave will step down in 2018 after thrashing the Outers in the EU referendum.

So, by 2018, Hammond and May won't be contenders, it'll be between Ossy, Boris, and the younger generation, Hunt, Javid and Vaizey.

If, the Tories lose next May, then the Tories will be pragmatic and reach out to those who voted UKIP and by electing as Leader Phil Hammond, someone who has advocated British withdrawal from the EU, only the star power of Boris will be able to stop him.

Theresa May really ballsed up her chances with the fiasco over the Arrest Warrant vote that left even JohnO exasperated.

TheScreamingEagles

Re Turkey and EU.

How long before someone blames the ECHR on forcing Dave to support Turkey's membership of the EU?

TGOHF

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

Will be a masterstroke if they join just as we leave The trade benefits without the bill or the border issues.

However not possible with LibLabKips "no 2017 referendum" approach.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

It depends on the manner of Dave's departure.

If Tory hopes are realised next year, and we continue in power post May 2015, then Dave will step down in 2018 after thrashing the Outers in the EU referendum.

So, by 2018, Hammond and May won't be contenders, it'll be between Ossy, Boris, and the younger generation, Hunt, Javid and Vaizey.

If, the Tories lose next May, then the Tories will be pragmatic and reach out to those who voted UKIP and by electing as Leader Phil Hammond, someone who has advocated British withdrawal from the EU, only the star power of Boris will be able to stop him.

Theresa May really ballsed up her chances with the fiasco over the Arrest Warrant vote that left even JohnO exasperated.

"It depends on the manner of Dave's departure."

Like Liverpool Football Club in a EUFA home match - all that wasted hope and effort with nothing to show for it.

Indigo

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

Neither is David Cameron.

No?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html?WT.mc_id=e_3746653&WT.tsrc=email&etype=politics&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_PAM_New_2014_12_10&utm_campaign=3746653

It's not the migrants that concern me so much as the instability: there seems a non-trivial risk that they'll end up with a virtual dictatorship of one kind of another. I take antifrank's point that the EU promotes stability, and it's not done a bad job in e.g. Poland, but there are limits to what it can influence, as we see in Hungary.

I dunno - I can see arguments both ways to be honest.

I would have thought the biggest problem for Turkey joining the EU was that existing members would have to agree unanimously to it, which rather conspicuously includes Cyprus. Also Angela Merkel is on record as being personally opposed to Turkey joining which rather scuppers the whole thing for the foreseeable future. Austria will also probably veto its historical enemy. France will want to appear at least lukewarm for domestic reasons, but will probably veto it as well when push comes to shove because it has the largest Turkish community in the EU and will be nervous about getting the bulk of the immigrants that result from Turkey joining.

TheWatcher

Indigo said:

OldKingCole said:

TOPPING said:

God what an uninspiring bunch. May might. But how uninteresting is that - I can't see anyone manning the barricades (or storming them) on her behalf.

As for Polish plumbers heading out on the M4 to their country pads of a Friday pm? Can't quite see it.

In the early years of this century I had lived near Colchester and worked in the South of Essex; meant that every day I drove along the A12 between Colchester and Chelmsford. Friday evenings were always a pain, with, I assumed, people from London heading to their Suffolk cottages. An assumtion fuelled by the fact that it was always worse in summer and just before school holidays.
Might have all been going to the ferry at Harwich, I suppose!

Farage was (just for a change) a little misquoted as well. The actually words spoken on Channel 4 News were

".. what it does have to do with is a country in which the population is going through the roof chiefly because of open-door immigration and the fact the M4 is not as navigable as it used to be."

Not that the M4 was packed with Polish Plumbers, but that the M4 is horrible anyway, which it certainly is having done Swindon to Bristol twice a day for several years. His general point about population going through the roof is manifestly the case, and the DFT study I cited shows that that is one of the key factors affecting road congestion. I dont particularly support Farage, although I have some sympathy with UKIP's aim, but I am allergic to bullshit, and the media is killing itself to misinterpret what UKIP says at the moment.

Farage probably imagines the roads outside London to be as quiet as they were in the 50s and 60s. Either that, or his expensive chauffeur has poor journey planning and time management skills

TGOHF

PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 44s44 seconds ago

The UK's trade deficit narrows to £2bn in October - @ONS finds. Story: http://polho.me/1sbWynj

Seems to be heading the right way.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/01figure1balanceofuktradeoctober2014_tcm77-384465.png

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It depends on the manner of Dave's departure.

If Tory hopes are realised next year, and we continue in power post May 2015, then Dave will step down in 2018 after thrashing the Outers in the EU referendum.

So, by 2018, Hammond and May won't be contenders, it'll be between Ossy, Boris, and the younger generation, Hunt, Javid and Vaizey.

If, the Tories lose next May, then the Tories will be pragmatic and reach out to those who voted UKIP and by electing as Leader Phil Hammond, someone who has advocated British withdrawal from the EU, only the star power of Boris will be able to stop him.

Theresa May really ballsed up her chances with the fiasco over the Arrest Warrant vote that left even JohnO exasperated.

"It depends on the manner of Dave's departure."

Like Liverpool Football Club in a EUFA home match - all that wasted hope and effort with nothing to show for it.

Is that something to do with Soccer?

I'm not a fan of soccer, I can't imagine whatever gave you that impression.

I'm a Rugby Union fan.

Ninoinoz

Barnesian said:

Net immigration is adding about 0.5% a year to our population.

To a first approximation, they are adding 0.5% pa to GDP (and prevented Balls' douible dip recession). They are also adding 0.5% to the tax take.

On the other hand they add 0.5% pa to the demand for NHS, schools, roads, care homes etc.

It balances out.

Actually, it probably doesn't because, on average, immigrants are younger and more likely to be producers of GDP than consumers of care homes and the NHS.

I do think that GDP figures and NHS spending should be expressed in amount per head rather than the grand total to get a feel of what is really going on.

What absolute codswallop.

Immigrants are younger? Absolutely correct, but that's the sort that have children.

So, pay a visit to a maternity unit, or to a Catholic School, and you'll find exactly the effect of immigration. My old primary school has expanded, an entirely new school had to be built, two new schools founded farther south and a sixth-form created at my niece's school.

There are lies, damned lies and your 0.5%'s.

TheScreamingEagles

Oh and cricket, I'm a fan of cricket.

TheScreamingEagles

I love Peru, not only did they send us a Brown coloured illegal immigrant, but now they are prosecuting those soap dodging, eco terrorists Greenpeace

Peru to take legal action over Greenpeace stunt at ancient Nazca lines

Government plans to file charges of attacking archaeological monuments after activists set up banner near famed drawings

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/10/peru-legal-action-greenpeace-stunt-nazca-lines

MarqueeMark

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It depends on the manner of Dave's departure.

If Tory hopes are realised next year, and we continue in power post May 2015, then Dave will step down in 2018 after thrashing the Outers in the EU referendum.

So, by 2018, Hammond and May won't be contenders, it'll be between Ossy, Boris, and the younger generation, Hunt, Javid and Vaizey.

If, the Tories lose next May, then the Tories will be pragmatic and reach out to those who voted UKIP and by electing as Leader Phil Hammond, someone who has advocated British withdrawal from the EU, only the star power of Boris will be able to stop him.

Theresa May really ballsed up her chances with the fiasco over the Arrest Warrant vote that left even JohnO exasperated.

"It depends on the manner of Dave's departure."

Like Liverpool Football Club in a EUFA home match - all that wasted hope and effort with nothing to show for it.

Five years of ManU not playing in Europe is something to show...

FalseFlag

Indigo said:

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, I see Cameron has strongly reaffirmed the Government's support for Turkish membership of the EU. I'm no Eurosceptic, as regular PBers will know, but well, hmm, I'm not sure about that.

Neither is David Cameron.

No?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html?WT.mc_id=e_3746653&WT.tsrc=email&etype=politics&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_PAM_New_2014_12_10&utm_campaign=3746653

It's not the migrants that concern me so much as the instability: there seems a non-trivial risk that they'll end up with a virtual dictatorship of one kind of another. I take antifrank's point that the EU promotes stability, and it's not done a bad job in e.g. Poland, but there are limits to what it can influence, as we see in Hungary.

I dunno - I can see arguments both ways to be honest.

I would have thought the biggest problem for Turkey joining the EU was that existing members would have to agree unanimously to it, which rather conspicuously includes Cyprus. Also Angela Merkel is on record as being personally opposed to Turkey joining which rather scuppers the whole thing for the foreseeable future. Austria will also probably veto its historical enemy. France will want to appear at least lukewarm for domestic reasons, but will probably veto it as well when push comes to shove because it has the largest Turkish community in the EU and will be nervous about getting the bulk of the immigrants that result from Turkey joining.

France won't due to the Armenian lobby.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenians_in_France

AlastairMeeks

Guess the latest opponent of Jean-Claude Juncker (no googling):

“Since I have uncovered all this I have questions about if Mr Juncker is fit to be the president of the European commission. I think if this had been around during the period of his appointment it might well be a different decision.”

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Antifrank, wasn't that a German minister a few days ago>

Ninoinoz

JosiasJessop said:

Ninoinoz said:

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Maybe you should try seeing if your premise is correct or false using figures?

Or maybe we could look at that the current Tory Immigration Minister says:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11278440/Nigel-Farage-blames-immigration-after-missing-Ukip-reception.html

However, James Brokenshire, the immigration minister, last month said immigration is putting pressure on Britain’s road network.
He dismissed a report that concluded that European migrants make a net economic gain to Britain by saying its “narrow focus” had failed to take into account pressure on infrastructure.
“It’s not properly addressed the issue of the pressures on public services. Those things that I think very rightly concern the public on access to schools, hospitals, roads, housing, why we do need a sustainable immigration system, bringing it down from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands,” Mr Brokenshire said.

And I would ask Brokenshire for evidence for his claims.

Besides, there are several effects here: local and national. Since Farage's journey was along the M4, people picking their kids up from school would have had less of an effect.

OK, nice to have it confirmed that you have paid absolutely no attention to my posts as long as I have been posting.

Catholic schools? Ever thought where all those Polish kids went to school?

And where exactly did their mothers give birth? How was the maternity unit your wife gave birth in? The ones in Suffolk barely have English spoken in them.

My dear Ninoinoz, I luxuriate in every single word of every post of yours. How can anyone not be truly entertained and enlightened by your erudition, compassion, and humour?
Thank you, very kind.

Much as I like compliments, I would have preferred an answer to my points, especially about maternity wards as you are a new father.

But, sarcastic comments beat reasoned arguments every time in Toryland.

MarqueeMark

Btw, fabulous result with the aurora borealis last night here in Iceland. Had to wait until gone 11 pm in some pretty parky conditions, but then we got coloured curtains dancing from one side of the night sky to the other.

Another one off the bucket list. Next - Madagascar.

Floater

So probably two non white male leaders for the blues compared to errr none for the progressive reds.

Hattie will not be amused.

TheScreamingEagles

MarqueeMark said:

Btw, fabulous result with the aurora borealis last night here in Iceland. Had to wait until gone 11 pm in some pretty parky conditions, but then we got coloured curtains dancing from one side of the night sky to the other.

Another one off the bucket list. Next - Madagascar.

Penguins of Madagascar is fab. And it has Benedict in it.