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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spread markets
Scotland is the dark shadow hanging over LAB while UKIP over CON. And can the LDs, down to 6% in some polls, really be considered a prospect to get into the 30s?
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ELBOW 30th Nov: Lab lead 2.1%
ELBOW for polls so far this week (6): 0.8%
2 Dec - Headline figures : (Changes From 18 Nov)
Con 310 (NC) .. Lab 262 (-2) .. LibDem 34 (+4) .. SNP 18 (-2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Speaker 1
Con 16 short of a majority.
The SNP spread is more interesting. Even allowing for a drift back towards Labour, the SNP are on course for well over 30 seats, and conceivably over 40, if the current polls are to be believed. Conversely the risk on the downside of the SNP spread looks rather limited. That assymetric distribution makes the SNP at 22 a buy IMO, especially if you cover your risk by betting on Labour to get most seats at 2.38 (Ladbrokes).
Note that spread bets are inherently risky, so make sure you know what you're doing if you want to play in this market. If in doubt, don't.
WTF is a nang bandit?
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/540535075591696384
‘Whereas I am not an innocent woman. I am a foolish and—’
‘That is not for you to say,’ interrupted the Judge hurriedly. ‘It is for the prosecution to prove to the satisfaction of the jury.’
‘Unless I plead guilty,’ said Emmelia.
Tom Sharpe introduced a new verb to the English language.
That's not to say IMO ukip are value on the spreads, just that if you want to bet on ukip breaking through (eg, Nigel as PM/most seats/majority bets) then the spreads offer way better value than any fixed odds bet.
Has Twickenham become a super marginal? St Vince of the abolition of Glasgow private schools was sounding pathetically desperate this morning during TV interviews. I hope Danny Alexander phoned him and told him to fcuk himself.
Can someone explain how UKIP would win half a seat?
Can't understand why OGH keeps suggesting the Tories are doing badly in LibDem held seats. Ashcroft's 3 polls in June, September and November implied the Tories would take 12 of the 31 LibDem seats covered with Labour taking 5 and the LibDems holding only 14.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 7m7 minutes ago
Key marginal of Trumpton well worth keeping an eye on. Latest odds:
8/11 @Tory_Trumpton
Evens @Trumpton_UKIP
1000/1 @Trumpton_First
SPLITTERS!!!!!
Twenty-four hours after the Autumn Budget (we now need two apparently each year) and the PPB for the GOP (George Osborne Party) whither and whence ?
The Stamp Duty changes are useful if a little gimmicky but do remove a nasty anomaly which made a huge difference if buying a property for £249,995 or £251,000 for example. All good though the amount is small compared with the usual other expenses and stress in moving house.
The rest of it was mostly re-tread of what was said in the spring or touted subsequently. As an LD, I'm broadly happy with most of it.
As with others including the OBR, the future spending proposal is much more contentious. Were we looking at an across-the-board saving covering all budgets, you could at least argue the pain was being shared equally but with key areas like the NHS and education frozen (although defining the NHS isn't easy as public health has come under LA control and is therefore outside the fence) and I would imagine defence spending unlikely to see a renewed round of savings, it's our old friends welfare and local Government that will bear the brunt.
Trying to reach the target of a balanced budget by 2019-20 given where we are now and given on going commitments to care for the elderly and vulnerable people, I struggle to see how this can be achieved without the kind of reductions in Government grant that will send most Council Finance officers into a state of apoplexy.
For all the wittering on here about "Diversity Co-Ordinators", I would contend most staff at most Councils are working hard and well for their customers. Indeed, as we know, there is a lot of collaborative working going on to reduce savings and drive efficiencies but that will only go so far. The logical extension becomes the merger of authorities themselves, the abolition of two-tier and a smaller group of larger authorities.
Obviously, we need to see the Labour and LD and indeed UKIP plans - I'm not hung up on eliminating the deficit completely - it's too high now, I wouldn't argue that point but could I live with a £10-20 billion borrowing requirement by 2019-20. I suppose so much depends on the wider global economy and where the interest rate journey will take us..
According to Mr. Justice Cantley, Mr. Thorpe and his co-Defendants were "men of unblemished reputation".
Auberon Waugh contested North Devon in the Dog-Lovers' Interest in the 1979 general election. His election address began "Rinka Lives! Woof, Woof! Vote Waugh if you believe that dogs deserve the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." Lord Denning ordered a ban on distribution of the election address, on the ground that it amounted to contempt of court.
Waugh regretted some aspects of his campaign. He pretended to an interviewer from Gay News that he was sympathetic towards gay dogs, while privately he believed they should be whipped.
2015 might be one to lose.
So 2015 would be a good one for Labour to lose.
There is a tipping point where a raft of Labour and LibDem seats begin to topple. However that tipping point represents a significant improvement in the polls for the SNP compared to 2010 that presently they are achieving.
Are you thinking that both are too high Mike , or simply too difficult to gauge accurately?
As I mentioned on the previous thread I believe the’s filed his side of the tale, to be published after his death. Whether it will be, of course..........
And, given the length of time since the event, whether anyone but anoraks and old people like me who remember him will care!
The IFS are describing £55bn cuts as 'colossal', when the budget is over £700bn.
Less than 8% = "colossal".
You can only wonder what 10% would be? Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?
He was sex mad.
2015 is very tough one for Labour. If Dave wins it they're structurally screwed thereafter. If Labour win it they'll have Ed being Ed in No.10 and the markets reacting accordingly to his lack of spine / plan. I have no idea which is worse for Labour in the long run. In a globalising 'no money' world they need a raison d'etre PDQ!
For fans of a single data point.
In Dec 2013, in the last full YouGov conducted before the Autumn Statement, Lab had a 12% lead (con 29, Lab 41)
In the first YouGov poll conducted entirely after the Autumn Statement, Lab's lead was slashed to 5% (con 34, Lab 39)
M Sutherland-Fisher @Scots_Tory
@LadPolitics @Tory_Trumpton @Trumpton_UKIP @Trumpton_First will Ed 'Call me Wallace' Bland be going there to campaign or is it all Balls
When I hear Trumpton, I always think of the Old Boy from my school Lord Todd of Trumpington and also Lady Trumpington the elderly and somewhat indefatigable Tory peeress
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
I mean, I've been on this forum for ten years and have witnessed some particularly stupid contributions but yours, my friend, is well up there. You are a credit to the Party you so avidly support.
With Labour they could significantly undershoot the mark through a SNP landslide in Scotland, a further Green surge, larger than usual swingback, a large incumbency factor in Con seats or UKIP suddenly harming Labour more in marginals.
Similarly with the Conservatives they could continue to struggle to rise in the polls, the left could reunite, UKIP could focus more on their best prospects which are mainly Con seats, possible defections, struggle to break through Lib Dem incumbency and Ashcroft still hasn't found point where Labour gains end in marginals.
NOM 1.51
Lab 5.8
Con 5.9
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/26589827/market?marketId=1.101416490
Every year, more people die from water-related diseases than from all forms of violence, including war http://virg.in/www
Should we have a "War on Water-Related Diseases"?
Nov VI summary: Lab 35.9% (+0.2), Con 33.1% (-0.4), UKIP 13.6% (-0.2), LD 8.5% (-0.2), other 4.7% (=) Full details: http://popu.lu/s_viNov14
"Wonderful. I had a gay greyhound ..."
.................................................................
Presumably back in the day he was pleased with the Woofenden Report ?
I'll get my collar and lead ....
He looked very frail but acknowledged the sentiment. He brackets two long-serving Liberal leaders in Jo Grimond and David Steel but I'm not quite sure how to evaluate him;. In his prime, he was a maverick but a fine debater - in some ways, almost like Nigel Farage. 1970 was a disaster for the party (the Conservatives got 46%) with a lot of the progress of the 1960s destroyed but the Assembly after that election saw the emergence of the new Community Politics.
Thorpe might not have been a huge advocate but came to see its value and he was instrumental in the party's breakthrough in terms of votes, if not seats in February 1974. He, I think, would have been happy to have supported a continuation of Heath's Conservative Government but many of those who won in that election won off the Tories and weren't prepared to prop them up.
I've heard other stories propagated as to why the Con-Lib deal didn't happen but they aren't for today. I do think that IF Thorpe had been untainted by scandal, there wouldn't have been a Lib-Lab Pact in 1977 and history would have taken a very different path..
It doesn't seem to stop some people who think just because we have Freedom of Speech, they have to have an opinion about everything all the time.
Anyone with more than 1,000 posts should be banned for a month.
Now, THAT's being grumpy, Mr Dancer.
It's fair to raise the ring-fencing. Interest on the debt will decline the faster we cut.
I try and force mine down everyone's throats.
And It is just wrong when a woman has one.
Seriously, watch Breaking Bad and the Wire.
So that element has been greatly improved. The rest of the £700 billion, however.....
Do yourself a favour, check how much spending has risen on welfare, healthcare, pensions and education since the books were last balanced.
Then ask yourself, what value have we had from that?
It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it
When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing
It's a cautious strategy, unlikely to lose much but unlikely to win much too. You'd effectively be backing a good performance from LD, UKIP, SNP and others. Might be worth considering.
And that is how it came to be used in the sketch, allegedly.
I don't know but I would imagine it would be something in the region of 2% to 3%.
So far, Osborne has cut the deficit from 10% to 5% of GDP. I know he wants a surplus and that would be desirable but in practice if he can get it down to the long term average (say 2% to 3%?) then I would have thought everyone would be broadly happy with that.
If the above is what ends up happening it surely wouldn't be too painful at all - it would imply that 2/3rds of the reduction had already been done - and that is over a period some of which had very low growth.
If we get reasonable growth it doesn't look too bad.
That said, Ozzy's last big set piece, the budget in March this year, also saw a Tory increase.
More Ozzy = Increased Tory VI
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1478661.ece
"The mystery of the phone polling the Tories say isn’t being done for them
A consultancy founded by Jim Messina, a former White House official [who was Barack Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager and is now working for the Conservative Party], has surveyed voters in key marginal seats, by-election contests and the Scottish referendum.
The Conservatives insist that they have not commissioned the work by Messina Quantitative Research, describing it as an independent company. However, a party spokesman refused to deny that the business was sharing its findings with Tory strategists.
Ukip suggested that the Conservatives had reached an arm’s-length arrangement with MQR in order to bypass the £100,000 spending limit for by-election campaigns, including that in Rochester and Strood.
“It’s very odd that Jim Messina is calling people and saying that it’s for independent purposes,” a Ukip source said. “What are they doing with this information? He’s not polling Rochester and Strood on behalf of Barack Obama.”…
Call operatives from the company told survey respondents in the constituency that they were not working on behalf of any political parties but added: “If we collect enough information we may publish the results.” A spokesman for MQR declined to explain what this meant…"
http://www.markpack.org.uk/87787/mystery-phone-polling-tories-say-isnt-done/
It would even be technically difficult now, and electorally disastrous, of course.
Well, let's start here, shall we ? On the assumption that health care and education are ring-fenced and defence spending is more likely to go up than go down we have roughly £150 billion on pensions and £250 billion on everything else (including defence).
Given a Conservative Government largely elected by the elderly hasn't got a death wish, pensions won't be touched either so that leaves the weight of the cuts to fall on £110 billion of welfare and £250 billion of everything else (including defence).
A cut of £55 billion looks a bit more substantial now, doesn't it ?
That's not to say there wouldn't be trouble at t'mill were the polls to shift sharply against Labour in the coming days and weeks.
This will alter (and finalise) your 21 Nov average.
Given that Jim Messina has threatened to sue people for making that allegation you shouldn't make that sort of allegation.
FYI - Bankrupts can't be MPs
The most important thing for me is that none of these underhand tactics worked
Would Osborne have been so successful as the Chancellor of a minority Conservative Government ? One for another day.
He's also benefitted from historically low interest rates and inflation.
Unfortunately, his misfortunes have been the Eurozone about which he can do little and a jobs-led recovery which hasn't been matched by tax receipts for which he can "blame" his Coalition partners if he wishes.
"Careful here, we might be rumbled"
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/the-next-government-picking-through.html
I am not suggesting that everything cut was just waste - but the implication is that large amounts of money were being spent on things that the vast majority of people didn't even notice.
Whether that will be the case with further cuts, who knows? But the fact it has been the case to such a large degree up to now suggests there is at least some scope for the future.
Beyond a Joke: Inside the Dark World of Stand-Up Comedy
By Bruce Dessau
Messina would sue Mike, if anybody.
Have the Moderators been alerted?
... and also what you would think if it wasn't the Tories doing it