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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spr

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited December 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spread markets

Scotland is the dark shadow hanging over LAB while UKIP over CON. And can the LDs, down to 6% in some polls, really be considered a prospect to get into the 30s?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sleazy broken Labour on the slide.
  • ELBOW 23rd Nov: Lab lead 0.5%
    ELBOW 30th Nov: Lab lead 2.1%
    ELBOW for polls so far this week (6): 0.8%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Be interesting to see if the subsequent polling is disproportionately better for the Tories in the Midlands and the North, where the greater benefit from the Stamp Duty savings will be focussed.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    For some odd reason, I thought that this thread would turn into a discussion of establishment cover ups and political corruption.
  • dr_spyn said:

    For some odd reason, I thought that this thread would turn into a discussion of establishment cover ups and political corruption.

    How about discussions of players of the pink oboe?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited December 2014

    Afternoon all. I missed the key political event yesterday. Not the Autumn Statement. The latest Jack's ARSE. I couldn't readily find it so can some kind soul tell me what it's prediction was beyond Ed Miliband will never be PM.

    Normally published on a Tuesday.

    2 Dec - Headline figures : (Changes From 18 Nov)

    Con 310 (NC) .. Lab 262 (-2) .. LibDem 34 (+4) .. SNP 18 (-2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Speaker 1

    Con 16 short of a majority.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Presumably the death of Jeremy Thorpe will create a surge of sympathy support for the Liberal Democrats which will sweep across the west country and leave UKIP dead in the water. This is a complete game-changer for the fortunes and prospects of the Coalition in the run-up to the general election.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Establishment cover up, was it only 12 years ago that this was in The Spectator? http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/10459/jack-straw-must-come-clean-about-his-role-in-the-jeremy-thorpe-scandal/
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    You just need to look at the government's ban on making porn that upsets the feminist left. It doesn't matter that producers and consumers are consenting adults. The Guardianistas don't like it, so it's banned.

    Really? Only Guardianistas? Not, for example, Daily Mail readers?
    The fact that there has been no apparent action on a certain other sex abuse topic that upsets people when I bring it up, shows that they're not bothered about Daily Mail readers.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    dr_spyn said:

    For some odd reason, I thought that this thread would turn into a discussion of establishment cover ups and political corruption.

    How about discussions of players of the pink oboe?
    Peter Cook implied that the phrase originated from Glasgow, he heard Billy Connelly use it.
  • For the SNP and especially for UKIP, this is a very assymetric probability distribution, so you wouldn't expect the centre of the spread to be the most likely outcome. Even allowing for that, I think the UKIP figure is too high.

    The SNP spread is more interesting. Even allowing for a drift back towards Labour, the SNP are on course for well over 30 seats, and conceivably over 40, if the current polls are to be believed. Conversely the risk on the downside of the SNP spread looks rather limited. That assymetric distribution makes the SNP at 22 a buy IMO, especially if you cover your risk by betting on Labour to get most seats at 2.38 (Ladbrokes).

    Note that spread bets are inherently risky, so make sure you know what you're doing if you want to play in this market. If in doubt, don't.
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    You just need to look at the government's ban on making porn that upsets the feminist left. It doesn't matter that producers and consumers are consenting adults. The Guardianistas don't like it, so it's banned.

    Really? Only Guardianistas? Not, for example, Daily Mail readers?
    The fact that there has been no apparent action on a certain other sex abuse topic that upsets people when I bring it up, shows that they're not bothered about Daily Mail readers.
    Alternatively, and more plausibly, it shows that your characterisation is over-simplistic.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
  • Loony

    WTF is a nang bandit?
  • Shadsy showing he has a sense of humour

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/540535075591696384
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    The Judge was scandalized. ‘I would remind you that Mr Thorpe was an innocent man,’ he said sternly.
    ‘Whereas I am not an innocent woman. I am a foolish and—’
    ‘That is not for you to say,’ interrupted the Judge hurriedly. ‘It is for the prosecution to prove to the satisfaction of the jury.’
    ‘Unless I plead guilty,’ said Emmelia.

    Tom Sharpe introduced a new verb to the English language.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited December 2014
    Whoever bet £800 at 50/1 on UKIP most seats completely and utterly mugged themselves when they could have bought UKIP on the spreads and been paid out for every single seat gained.

    That's not to say IMO ukip are value on the spreads, just that if you want to bet on ukip breaking through (eg, Nigel as PM/most seats/majority bets) then the spreads offer way better value than any fixed odds bet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    JohnLoony said:

    Presumably the death of Jeremy Thorpe will create a surge of sympathy support for the Liberal Democrats which will sweep across the west country and leave UKIP dead in the water. This is a complete game-changer for the fortunes and prospects of the Coalition in the run-up to the general election.

    That would be very convenient - and would, of course, lead to a field day for the tin-foil wearers....

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Thanks to Jack W for his ARSE update at the end of the last thread, much appreciated. I will hope to catch the latest ELBOW when it appears in the coming days.

    Has Twickenham become a super marginal? St Vince of the abolition of Glasgow private schools was sounding pathetically desperate this morning during TV interviews. I hope Danny Alexander phoned him and told him to fcuk himself.

    Can someone explain how UKIP would win half a seat?

    Can't understand why OGH keeps suggesting the Tories are doing badly in LibDem held seats. Ashcroft's 3 polls in June, September and November implied the Tories would take 12 of the 31 LibDem seats covered with Labour taking 5 and the LibDems holding only 14.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Even Shadsy is laughing at the Kippers

    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 7m7 minutes ago
    Key marginal of Trumpton well worth keeping an eye on. Latest odds:
    8/11 @Tory_Trumpton
    Evens @Trumpton_UKIP
    1000/1 @Trumpton_First
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Even Shadsy is laughing at the Kippers

    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 7m7 minutes ago
    Key marginal of Trumpton well worth keeping an eye on. Latest odds:
    8/11 @Tory_Trumpton
    Evens @Trumpton_UKIP
    1000/1 @Trumpton_First

    He is having a laugh. Nobody will vote for Trumpton_First.

    SPLITTERS!!!!!

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Afternoon all :)

    Twenty-four hours after the Autumn Budget (we now need two apparently each year) and the PPB for the GOP (George Osborne Party) whither and whence ?

    The Stamp Duty changes are useful if a little gimmicky but do remove a nasty anomaly which made a huge difference if buying a property for £249,995 or £251,000 for example. All good though the amount is small compared with the usual other expenses and stress in moving house.

    The rest of it was mostly re-tread of what was said in the spring or touted subsequently. As an LD, I'm broadly happy with most of it.

    As with others including the OBR, the future spending proposal is much more contentious. Were we looking at an across-the-board saving covering all budgets, you could at least argue the pain was being shared equally but with key areas like the NHS and education frozen (although defining the NHS isn't easy as public health has come under LA control and is therefore outside the fence) and I would imagine defence spending unlikely to see a renewed round of savings, it's our old friends welfare and local Government that will bear the brunt.

    Trying to reach the target of a balanced budget by 2019-20 given where we are now and given on going commitments to care for the elderly and vulnerable people, I struggle to see how this can be achieved without the kind of reductions in Government grant that will send most Council Finance officers into a state of apoplexy.

    For all the wittering on here about "Diversity Co-Ordinators", I would contend most staff at most Councils are working hard and well for their customers. Indeed, as we know, there is a lot of collaborative working going on to reduce savings and drive efficiencies but that will only go so far. The logical extension becomes the merger of authorities themselves, the abolition of two-tier and a smaller group of larger authorities.

    Obviously, we need to see the Labour and LD and indeed UKIP plans - I'm not hung up on eliminating the deficit completely - it's too high now, I wouldn't argue that point but could I live with a £10-20 billion borrowing requirement by 2019-20. I suppose so much depends on the wider global economy and where the interest rate journey will take us..
  • Sell all of them as the new slightly moist Tory party (not obsessed with EU/LG) sweeps the nation taking seats off all the corporate parties and the extremists.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    JackW said:

    Afternoon all. I missed the key political event yesterday. Not the Autumn Statement. The latest Jack's ARSE. I couldn't readily find it so can some kind soul tell me what it's prediction was beyond Ed Miliband will never be PM.

    Normally published on a Tuesday.

    2 Dec - Headline figures : (Changes From 18 Nov)

    Con 310 (NC) .. Lab 262 (-2) .. LibDem 34 (+4) .. SNP 18 (-2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Speaker 1

    Con 16 short of a majority.
    Jack, am I right in thinking that there are a mass of Scottish seats that, like one of those shove halfpenny machines at the fair, either fall in a lump to the SNP - or don't fall at all. Just curious about the SNP falling two - are they LibDem seats?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    According to Mr. Justice Cantley, Mr. Thorpe and his co-Defendants were "men of unblemished reputation".

    Auberon Waugh contested North Devon in the Dog-Lovers' Interest in the 1979 general election. His election address began "Rinka Lives! Woof, Woof! Vote Waugh if you believe that dogs deserve the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." Lord Denning ordered a ban on distribution of the election address, on the ground that it amounted to contempt of court.

    Waugh regretted some aspects of his campaign. He pretended to an interviewer from Gay News that he was sympathetic towards gay dogs, while privately he believed they should be whipped.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Had to laugh at the leftie bloke from the Fabian Society whinging that George Osborne hasn't got a mandate to impose hefty public spending cuts in the next Parliament. Does the fool not realise that is one of the functions of the GE in May. I know Labour types don't believe in trusting the electorate but that was just plain stupid.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited December 2014
    @Stodge, I do wonder if Mervyn King was five years out in his prediction that whomever wins in 2010 would be out of power for a generation because of the cuts they would have to impose.

    2015 might be one to lose.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    @Stodge, I do wonder if Mervyn King was five years out in his prediction that whomever wins in 2010 would be out of power for a generation because of the cuts they would have to impose.

    2015 might be one to lose.

    Man up - 2010 was the one to lose - if you were a yellow bellied crew who didn't have the stomach for a bit of much needed fat trimming.

    So 2015 would be a good one for Labour to lose.


  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sean_F said:


    According to Mr. Justice Cantley, Mr. Thorpe and his co-Defendants were "men of unblemished reputation".

    Auberon Waugh contested North Devon in the Dog-Lovers' Interest in the 1979 general election. His election address began "Rinka Lives! Woof, Woof! Vote Waugh if you believe that dogs deserve the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." Lord Denning ordered a ban on distribution of the election address, on the ground that it amounted to contempt of court.

    Waugh regretted some aspects of his campaign. He pretended to an interviewer from Gay News that he was sympathetic towards gay dogs, while privately he believed they should be whipped.

    The same election address was printed in Private Eye, and a whole issue was recalled from sale. I bought a copy before the recall, but alas lost it.
  • Sell all of them as the new slightly moist Tory party (not obsessed with EU/LG) sweeps the nation taking seats off all the corporate parties and the extremists.

    Once again I misread that as "Maoist Tory Party" :)
  • TGOHF said:

    @Stodge, I do wonder if Mervyn King was five years out in his prediction that whomever wins in 2010 would be out of power for a generation because of the cuts they would have to impose.

    2015 might be one to lose.

    Man up - 2010 was the one to lose - if you were a yellow bellied crew who didn't have the stomach for a bit of much needed fat trimming.

    So 2015 would be a good one for Labour to lose.


    Oh I agree with you.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Afternoon all. I missed the key political event yesterday. Not the Autumn Statement. The latest Jack's ARSE. I couldn't readily find it so can some kind soul tell me what it's prediction was beyond Ed Miliband will never be PM.

    Normally published on a Tuesday.

    2 Dec - Headline figures : (Changes From 18 Nov)

    Con 310 (NC) .. Lab 262 (-2) .. LibDem 34 (+4) .. SNP 18 (-2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Speaker 1

    Con 16 short of a majority.
    Jack, am I right in thinking that there are a mass of Scottish seats that, like one of those shove halfpenny machines at the fair, either fall in a lump to the SNP - or don't fall at all. Just curious about the SNP falling two - are they LibDem seats?
    Indeed.

    There is a tipping point where a raft of Labour and LibDem seats begin to topple. However that tipping point represents a significant improvement in the polls for the SNP compared to 2010 that presently they are achieving.



  • "I’m also struggling with the UKIP and SNP totals"

    Are you thinking that both are too high Mike , or simply too difficult to gauge accurately?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited December 2014
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Even Shadsy is laughing at the Kippers

    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 7m7 minutes ago
    Key marginal of Trumpton well worth keeping an eye on. Latest odds:
    8/11 @Tory_Trumpton
    Evens @Trumpton_UKIP
    1000/1 @Trumpton_First

    He is having a laugh. Nobody will vote for Trumpton_First.

    SPLITTERS!!!!!

    Will they also be standing in Camberwick Green & Peckham?

    :)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Plato said:
    Seems about right. I would think everyone’s had them on file for ages!

    As I mentioned on the previous thread I believe the’s filed his side of the tale, to be published after his death. Whether it will be, of course..........
    And, given the length of time since the event, whether anyone but anoraks and old people like me who remember him will care!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Cameron and Osborne are right about the hyperbole.

    The IFS are describing £55bn cuts as 'colossal', when the budget is over £700bn.

    Less than 8% = "colossal".

    You can only wonder what 10% would be? Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?
  • With at least two polls due in the next 24hrs (undertaken pre or post the Autumn statement?), plus Stephen Fisher's latest projection tomorrow morning, things could get a bit lively on Sporting's GE Seats spread market.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Wonderful. I had a gay greyhound - he was super when his lady friend was in heat. After he passed on, I got his brother in a bizarre twist of coincidence. He obviously got his brother's libido and had to be tied to a chair for several days instead.

    He was sex mad.
    Sean_F said:


    According to Mr. Justice Cantley, Mr. Thorpe and his co-Defendants were "men of unblemished reputation".

    Auberon Waugh contested North Devon in the Dog-Lovers' Interest in the 1979 general election. His election address began "Rinka Lives! Woof, Woof! Vote Waugh if you believe that dogs deserve the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." Lord Denning ordered a ban on distribution of the election address, on the ground that it amounted to contempt of court.

    Waugh regretted some aspects of his campaign. He pretended to an interviewer from Gay News that he was sympathetic towards gay dogs, while privately he believed they should be whipped.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Seems to me the best tactic on the spreads 6 months out is to sell the seats of the party that are getting good headlines, once the mugs have bought and pushed the price up
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited December 2014

    2015 might be one to lose.

    But a Tory 2015 win (slim majority) will mean EVFEL for 100% sure. And new boundaries for 100% sure. So worth sixty seats +/-. They'd have to fuck up on a gargantuan scale to nullify that. If they do win in May it will be on the back of an electorate that has put them there with eyes wide open about the trimming of the state to come.

    2015 is very tough one for Labour. If Dave wins it they're structurally screwed thereafter. If Labour win it they'll have Ed being Ed in No.10 and the markets reacting accordingly to his lack of spine / plan. I have no idea which is worse for Labour in the long run. In a globalising 'no money' world they need a raison d'etre PDQ!
  • With at least two polls due in the next 24hrs (undertaken pre or post the Autumn statement?), plus Stephen Fisher's latest projection tomorrow morning, things could get a bit lively on Sporting's GE Seats spread market.

    I posted this last night

    For fans of a single data point.

    In Dec 2013, in the last full YouGov conducted before the Autumn Statement, Lab had a 12% lead (con 29, Lab 41)

    In the first YouGov poll conducted entirely after the Autumn Statement, Lab's lead was slashed to 5% (con 34, Lab 39)
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    This was my tweet to Shadsy's brilliant Trumpton joke tweet

    M Sutherland-Fisher @Scots_Tory
    @LadPolitics @Tory_Trumpton @Trumpton_UKIP @Trumpton_First will Ed 'Call me Wallace' Bland be going there to campaign or is it all Balls :)

    When I hear Trumpton, I always think of the Old Boy from my school Lord Todd of Trumpington and also Lady Trumpington the elderly and somewhat indefatigable Tory peeress
  • Most Punters are likely to be PB Tories with more disposable income?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Brent Crude = $69.33:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    chestnut said:

    Cameron and Osborne are right about the hyperbole.

    The IFS are describing £55bn cuts as 'colossal', when the budget is over £700bn.

    Less than 8% = "colossal".

    You can only wonder what 10% would be? Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?

    Do you seriously think all £700 billion is spent on public services ? What about the money to service the debt itself? What about the ringfenced budgets, what about spending on the armed forces which your party would probably wish to increase ?

    I mean, I've been on this forum for ten years and have witnessed some particularly stupid contributions but yours, my friend, is well up there. You are a credit to the Party you so avidly support.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    You're playing with fire getting on either Labour or Conservatives spreads in this political climate.

    With Labour they could significantly undershoot the mark through a SNP landslide in Scotland, a further Green surge, larger than usual swingback, a large incumbency factor in Con seats or UKIP suddenly harming Labour more in marginals.

    Similarly with the Conservatives they could continue to struggle to rise in the polls, the left could reunite, UKIP could focus more on their best prospects which are mainly Con seats, possible defections, struggle to break through Lib Dem incumbency and Ashcroft still hasn't found point where Labour gains end in marginals.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Richard Branson ‏@richardbranson

    Every year, more people die from water-related diseases than from all forms of violence, including war http://virg.in/www



    Should we have a "War on Water-Related Diseases"?

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    TGOHF said:

    @Stodge, I do wonder if Mervyn King was five years out in his prediction that whomever wins in 2010 would be out of power for a generation because of the cuts they would have to impose.

    2015 might be one to lose.

    Man up - 2010 was the one to lose - if you were a yellow bellied crew who didn't have the stomach for a bit of much needed fat trimming.

    So 2015 would be a good one for Labour to lose.


    Oh I agree with you.
    I doubt there is a good election to lose. If Labour lose and lose more seats, the talent pool will be even more limited.
  • @PopulusPolls

    Nov VI summary: Lab 35.9% (+0.2), Con 33.1% (-0.4), UKIP 13.6% (-0.2), LD 8.5% (-0.2), other 4.7% (=) Full details: http://popu.lu/s_viNov14
  • Bit grumpy, Mr. Stodge.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited December 2014
    Plato said :

    "Wonderful. I had a gay greyhound ..."

    .................................................................

    Presumably back in the day he was pleased with the Woofenden Report ?

    I'll get my collar and lead ....

  • AndyJS said:
    Broken, sleazy Brent Crude on the slide?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989

    Plato said:
    Seems about right. I would think everyone’s had them on file for ages!

    As I mentioned on the previous thread I believe the’s filed his side of the tale, to be published after his death. Whether it will be, of course..........
    And, given the length of time since the event, whether anyone but anoraks and old people like me who remember him will care!
    I hadn't realised until just now that Jeremy Thorpe had died. I was at a Party Conference in the early 90s when he appeared with his second wife, Marion, and got a prolonged round of applause led by Paddy and the MPs.

    He looked very frail but acknowledged the sentiment. He brackets two long-serving Liberal leaders in Jo Grimond and David Steel but I'm not quite sure how to evaluate him;. In his prime, he was a maverick but a fine debater - in some ways, almost like Nigel Farage. 1970 was a disaster for the party (the Conservatives got 46%) with a lot of the progress of the 1960s destroyed but the Assembly after that election saw the emergence of the new Community Politics.

    Thorpe might not have been a huge advocate but came to see its value and he was instrumental in the party's breakthrough in terms of votes, if not seats in February 1974. He, I think, would have been happy to have supported a continuation of Heath's Conservative Government but many of those who won in that election won off the Tories and weren't prepared to prop them up.

    I've heard other stories propagated as to why the Con-Lib deal didn't happen but they aren't for today. I do think that IF Thorpe had been untainted by scandal, there wouldn't have been a Lib-Lab Pact in 1977 and history would have taken a very different path..

  • Bit grumpy, Mr. Stodge.

    You'd be grumpy if your party was polling in the single digits behind the Greens.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989

    Bit grumpy, Mr. Stodge.

    I despair when confronted with such blatant partisan idiocy which abounds on here sometimes. I prefer to keep out of topics about which I know nothing (I've never watched "The Wire" o0r "Breaking Bad" and have no idea about Twitter).

    It doesn't seem to stop some people who think just because we have Freedom of Speech, they have to have an opinion about everything all the time.

    Anyone with more than 1,000 posts should be banned for a month.

    Now, THAT's being grumpy, Mr Dancer.

  • Mr. Stodge, but surely you don't want *me* banned? Who else would delight you with F1 news?

    It's fair to raise the ring-fencing. Interest on the debt will decline the faster we cut.
  • stodge said:

    Bit grumpy, Mr. Stodge.

    I despair when confronted with such blatant partisan idiocy which abounds on here sometimes. I prefer to keep out of topics about which I know nothing (I've never watched "The Wire" o0r "Breaking Bad" and have no idea about Twitter).

    It doesn't seem to stop some people who think just because we have Freedom of Speech, they have to have an opinion about everything all the time.

    Anyone with more than 1,000 posts should be banned for a month.

    Now, THAT's being grumpy, Mr Dancer.

    Opinions are like penises.

    I try and force mine down everyone's throats.

    And It is just wrong when a woman has one.

    Seriously, watch Breaking Bad and the Wire.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    edited December 2014
    stodge said:

    chestnut said:

    Cameron and Osborne are right about the hyperbole.

    The IFS are describing £55bn cuts as 'colossal', when the budget is over £700bn.

    Less than 8% = "colossal".

    You can only wonder what 10% would be? Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?

    Do you seriously think all £700 billion is spent on public services ? What about the money to service the debt itself? What about the ringfenced budgets, what about spending on the armed forces which your party would probably wish to increase ?

    I mean, I've been on this forum for ten years and have witnessed some particularly stupid contributions but yours, my friend, is well up there. You are a credit to the Party you so avidly support.
    But Osborne has been quite exceptional at refinancing our debt, at levels that Labour could only dream about. And that is down to the markets having a belief in his ability to deliver the recovery. He obviously talked up his abilities on this - and we would have come a real cropper if he had been seen to fail.

    So that element has been greatly improved. The rest of the £700 billion, however.....
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    stodge said:

    Do you seriously think all £700 billion is spent on public services ? What about the money to service the debt itself? What about the ringfenced budgets, what about spending on the armed forces which your party would probably wish to increase ?

    I mean, I've been on this forum for ten years and have witnessed some particularly stupid contributions but yours, my friend, is well up there. You are a credit to the Party you so avidly support.

    I'd recommend that you actually go and find out what it's all being spent on and then you might be able to pass informed comment.

    Do yourself a favour, check how much spending has risen on welfare, healthcare, pensions and education since the books were last balanced.

    Then ask yourself, what value have we had from that?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    AndyJS said:
    Wonder what of an effect this would have had on a post-Yes world!
  • RobD said:

    AndyJS said:
    Wonder what of an effect this would have had on a post-Yes world!
    Scots begging for a referendum to rejoin the UK as they became the Zimbabwe of the British Isles.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Bit grumpy, Mr. Stodge.

    You'd be grumpy if your party was polling in the single digits behind the Greens.
    Maybe if the Greens and the LibDems combined? They could become the Glibs....

  • RobD said:

    AndyJS said:
    Wonder what of an effect this would have had on a post-Yes world!
    Scotland ducked a bullet.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014
    Re the allegations of push polling inRochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing
  • Picking up on JackW's latest re-circlulated ARSE forecast, those who are persuaded that the Tories are liely to hold Pudsey and Ipswich can back these at 11/8 (PP & Lads) and 6/4 (PP) respectively.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RachelReevesMP: I'm really pleased to confirm I'm expecting my second child next June. A busy year ahead!
  • Artist said:

    You're playing with fire getting on either Labour or Conservatives spreads in this political climate.

    With Labour they could significantly undershoot the mark through a SNP landslide in Scotland, a further Green surge, larger than usual swingback, a large incumbency factor in Con seats or UKIP suddenly harming Labour more in marginals.

    Similarly with the Conservatives they could continue to struggle to rise in the polls, the left could reunite, UKIP could focus more on their best prospects which are mainly Con seats, possible defections, struggle to break through Lib Dem incumbency and Ashcroft still hasn't found point where Labour gains end in marginals.

    You could sell both LAb and Con, Artist.

    It's a cautious strategy, unlikely to lose much but unlikely to win much too. You'd effectively be backing a good performance from LD, UKIP, SNP and others. Might be worth considering.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    For some odd reason, I thought that this thread would turn into a discussion of establishment cover ups and political corruption.

    How about discussions of players of the pink oboe?
    Peter Cook implied that the phrase originated from Glasgow, he heard Billy Connelly use it.
    Billy Connolly did have a sketch about the Orange oboe or rather flute players - quite a different matter, one hopes - so I wonder if wires have got crossed.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited December 2014
    isam said:

    Re the allegations of push polling inRochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
  • With at least two polls due in the next 24hrs (undertaken pre or post the Autumn statement?), plus Stephen Fisher's latest projection tomorrow morning, things could get a bit lively on Sporting's GE Seats spread market.

    I posted this last night

    For fans of a single data point.

    In Dec 2013, in the last full YouGov conducted before the Autumn Statement, Lab had a 12% lead (con 29, Lab 41)

    In the first YouGov poll conducted entirely after the Autumn Statement, Lab's lead was slashed to 5% (con 34, Lab 39)
    If such a shift in opinion were to be repeated in tonight's or tomorrow's polls (HUGE if), the repercussions in the betting markets would be significant, as would be the political ramifications as regards Miliband's position, etc.

  • Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    For some odd reason, I thought that this thread would turn into a discussion of establishment cover ups and political corruption.

    How about discussions of players of the pink oboe?
    Peter Cook implied that the phrase originated from Glasgow, he heard Billy Connelly use it.
    Billy Connolly did have a sketch about the Orange oboe or rather flute players - quite a different matter, one hopes - so I wonder if wires have got crossed.

    I remember watching an interview with Peter Cook in which he said he and the scriptwriters were struggling to find some alternative allusion to masturbator. Connolly, who was present, indicated that in Glasgow the term 'player of the pink oboe' was sometimes used.

    And that is how it came to be used in the sketch, allegedly.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited December 2014
    isam said:



    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    Perhaps a blog of your own - like the Tap ?


  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?

    You don't need a link; if you tune the antennae on your tinfoil hat just so...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Have we finally reached the point where getting rid of Ed as leader is no longer feasible?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited December 2014
    Re the deficit - what is the UK's average annual deficit as a % of GDP from say 1970 to 2007 (ie before everything went out of control)?

    I don't know but I would imagine it would be something in the region of 2% to 3%.

    So far, Osborne has cut the deficit from 10% to 5% of GDP. I know he wants a surplus and that would be desirable but in practice if he can get it down to the long term average (say 2% to 3%?) then I would have thought everyone would be broadly happy with that.

    If the above is what ends up happening it surely wouldn't be too painful at all - it would imply that 2/3rds of the reduction had already been done - and that is over a period some of which had very low growth.

    If we get reasonable growth it doesn't look too bad.
  • With at least two polls due in the next 24hrs (undertaken pre or post the Autumn statement?), plus Stephen Fisher's latest projection tomorrow morning, things could get a bit lively on Sporting's GE Seats spread market.

    I posted this last night

    For fans of a single data point.

    In Dec 2013, in the last full YouGov conducted before the Autumn Statement, Lab had a 12% lead (con 29, Lab 41)

    In the first YouGov poll conducted entirely after the Autumn Statement, Lab's lead was slashed to 5% (con 34, Lab 39)
    If such a shift in opinion were to be repeated in tonight's or tomorrow's polls (HUGE if), the repercussions in the betting markets would be significant, as would be the political ramifications as regards Miliband's position, etc.

    The 12% lead was a bit of an outlier.

    That said, Ozzy's last big set piece, the budget in March this year, also saw a Tory increase.

    More Ozzy = Increased Tory VI
  • isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    Careful here. Messina threatened to sue for defamation when UKIP first alleged this:

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1478661.ece
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    This site quotes from The Times

    "The mystery of the phone polling the Tories say isn’t being done for them

    A consultancy founded by Jim Messina, a former White House official [who was Barack Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager and is now working for the Conservative Party], has surveyed voters in key marginal seats, by-election contests and the Scottish referendum.

    The Conservatives insist that they have not commissioned the work by Messina Quantitative Research, describing it as an independent company. However, a party spokesman refused to deny that the business was sharing its findings with Tory strategists.

    Ukip suggested that the Conservatives had reached an arm’s-length arrangement with MQR in order to bypass the £100,000 spending limit for by-election campaigns, including that in Rochester and Strood.

    “It’s very odd that Jim Messina is calling people and saying that it’s for independent purposes,” a Ukip source said. “What are they doing with this information? He’s not polling Rochester and Strood on behalf of Barack Obama.”…

    Call operatives from the company told survey respondents in the constituency that they were not working on behalf of any political parties but added: “If we collect enough information we may publish the results.” A spokesman for MQR declined to explain what this meant…"

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/87787/mystery-phone-polling-tories-say-isnt-done/

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    Bit grumpy, Mr. Stodge.

    You'd be grumpy if your party was polling in the single digits behind the Greens.
    Maybe if the Greens and the LibDems combined? They could become the Glibs....

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    For some odd reason, I thought that this thread would turn into a discussion of establishment cover ups and political corruption.

    How about discussions of players of the pink oboe?
    Peter Cook implied that the phrase originated from Glasgow, he heard Billy Connelly use it.
    Billy Connolly did have a sketch about the Orange oboe or rather flute players - quite a different matter, one hopes - so I wonder if wires have got crossed.

    I remember watching an interview with Peter Cook in which he said he and the scriptwriters were struggling to find some alternative allusion to masturbator. Connolly, who was present, indicated that in Glasgow the term 'player of the pink oboe' was sometimes used.

    And that is how it came to be used in the sketch, allegedly.
    Ah, thanks - that's convincingly circumstantial.
  • AndyJS said:

    Have we finally reached the point where getting rid of Ed as leader is no longer feasible?

    Surely so, Andy.

    It would even be technically difficult now, and electorally disastrous, of course.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    chestnut said:


    I'd recommend that you actually go and find out what it's all being spent on and then you might be able to pass informed comment.

    Do yourself a favour, check how much spending has risen on welfare, healthcare, pensions and education since the books were last balanced.

    Then ask yourself, what value have we had from that?

    http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/government_expenditure.html

    Well, let's start here, shall we ? On the assumption that health care and education are ring-fenced and defence spending is more likely to go up than go down we have roughly £150 billion on pensions and £250 billion on everything else (including defence).

    Given a Conservative Government largely elected by the elderly hasn't got a death wish, pensions won't be touched either so that leaves the weight of the cuts to fall on £110 billion of welfare and £250 billion of everything else (including defence).

    A cut of £55 billion looks a bit more substantial now, doesn't it ?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited December 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Have we finally reached the point where getting rid of Ed as leader is no longer feasible?

    That's long been the case - only a straight resignation would result in a change of leader prior to the May 2014 GE.
    That's not to say there wouldn't be trouble at t'mill were the polls to shift sharply against Labour in the coming days and weeks.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    Careful here. Messina threatened to sue for defamation when UKIP first alleged this:

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1478661.ece
    Can you sue for whining ? No wonder the Kippers are skint.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:
    Wonder what of an effect this would have had on a post-Yes world!
    Rob - you need to add the TNS poll to your spreadsheet - you missed it as it was released well after fieldwork - end date 27 Nov - see Wiki list.

    This will alter (and finalise) your 21 Nov average.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited December 2014
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    This site quotes from The Times

    "The mystery of the phone polling the Tories say isn’t being done for them

    A consultancy founded by Jim Messina, a former White House official [who was Barack Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager and is now working for the Conservative Party], has surveyed voters in key marginal seats, by-election contests and the Scottish referendum.

    The Conservatives insist that they have not commissioned the work by Messina Quantitative Research, describing it as an independent company. However, a party spokesman refused to deny that the business was sharing its findings with Tory strategists.

    Ukip suggested that the Conservatives had reached an arm’s-length arrangement with MQR in order to bypass the £100,000 spending limit for by-election campaigns, including that in Rochester and Strood.

    “It’s very odd that Jim Messina is calling people and saying that it’s for independent purposes,” a Ukip source said. “What are they doing with this information? He’s not polling Rochester and Strood on behalf of Barack Obama.”…

    Call operatives from the company told survey respondents in the constituency that they were not working on behalf of any political parties but added: “If we collect enough information we may publish the results.” A spokesman for MQR declined to explain what this meant…"

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/87787/mystery-phone-polling-tories-say-isnt-done/

    That article doesn't use the phrase push polling.

    Given that Jim Messina has threatened to sue people for making that allegation you shouldn't make that sort of allegation.

    FYI - Bankrupts can't be MPs
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    Careful here. Messina threatened to sue for defamation when UKIP first alleged this:

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1478661.ece
    Can you sue for whining ? No wonder the Kippers are skint.
    Yes well I guess if you are comfortable with linking foreign sounding candidates with Islamic terrorists, push polling, accusations of alcoholism & thieving in an effort to win then you have nothing to worry about.

    The most important thing for me is that none of these underhand tactics worked
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989

    stodge said:

    chestnut said:

    Cameron and Osborne are right about the hyperbole.

    The IFS are describing £55bn cuts as 'colossal', when the budget is over £700bn.

    Less than 8% = "colossal".

    You can only wonder what 10% would be? Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?

    Do you seriously think all £700 billion is spent on public services ? What about the money to service the debt itself? What about the ringfenced budgets, what about spending on the armed forces which your party would probably wish to increase ?

    I mean, I've been on this forum for ten years and have witnessed some particularly stupid contributions but yours, my friend, is well up there. You are a credit to the Party you so avidly support.
    But Osborne has been quite exceptional at refinancing our debt, at levels that Labour could only dream about. And that is down to the markets having a belief in his ability to deliver the recovery. He obviously talked up his abilities on this - and we would have come a real cropper if he had been seen to fail.

    So that element has been greatly improved. The rest of the £700 billion, however.....
    Indeed, the "smoke and mirrors" has done its job and I would argue the stability of Government provided by the Liberal Democrat presence in the Coalition has played its part too.

    Would Osborne have been so successful as the Chancellor of a minority Conservative Government ? One for another day.

    He's also benefitted from historically low interest rates and inflation.

    Unfortunately, his misfortunes have been the Eurozone about which he can do little and a jobs-led recovery which hasn't been matched by tax receipts for which he can "blame" his Coalition partners if he wishes.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    Careful here. Messina threatened to sue for defamation when UKIP first alleged this:

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1478661.ece
    Or

    "Careful here, we might be rumbled"
  • AndyJS said:

    Have we finally reached the point where getting rid of Ed as leader is no longer feasible?

    Yes I think so. Which means that bets on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister are bets on Labour forming the next government. You can back Labour most seats at evens with William Hill and Ed Miliband at 11/10 as next Prime Minister with Ladbrokes and Coral. The latter is a much better bet, because Ed Miliband may well be Prime Minister even if Labour do not get most seats:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/the-next-government-picking-through.html
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    The striking thing is that many of the cuts made so far have gone almost completely unnoticed - eg satisfaction with Local Government has gone up, despite massive cuts.

    I am not suggesting that everything cut was just waste - but the implication is that large amounts of money were being spent on things that the vast majority of people didn't even notice.

    Whether that will be the case with further cuts, who knows? But the fact it has been the case to such a large degree up to now suggests there is at least some scope for the future.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    "Against all expectations he delivered a blisteringly funny send-up of judicial bias. The trial of Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe for incitement and conspiracy to murder had just taken place, with the judge strongly advising the jury to go away and bring in a not guilty verdict. Cook brilliantly ridiculed the judge’s reverence for the accused Liberal leader and lack of support for the man who claimed to be Thorpe’s former lover, Norman Scott. Just before Cook went on, he asked the other comedians backstage if they knew any good euphemisms for homosexual, and Billy Connolly provided him with a Glaswegian epithet. Cook went on and during his comic summing-up described ‘Norma St John Scott’ as ‘a self-confessed player of the pink oboe’.

    Beyond a Joke: Inside the Dark World of Stand-Up Comedy
    By Bruce Dessau
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MikeL said:

    Re the deficit - what is the UK's average annual deficit as a % of GDP from say 1970 to 2007 (ie before everything went out of control)?

    I don't know but I would imagine it would be something in the region of 2% to 3%.

    So far, Osborne has cut the deficit from 10% to 5% of GDP. I know he wants a surplus and that would be desirable but in practice if he can get it down to the long term average (say 2% to 3%?) then I would have thought everyone would be broadly happy with that.

    If the above is what ends up happening it surely wouldn't be too painful at all - it would imply that 2/3rds of the reduction had already been done - and that is over a period some of which had very low growth.

    If we get reasonable growth it doesn't look too bad.

    Absolutely, a 2-3% deficit would be fine. We've run a deficit for something like 100 of the last 150 years. But what passes for "the Left" are too scared to say that because they've bought into the ridiculous hysteria about how any debt is evil and will come and kill us in the night if we don't cut cut cut.
  • @TSE

    Messina would sue Mike, if anybody.

    Have the Moderators been alerted?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    This site quotes from The Times

    "The mystery of the phone polling the Tories say isn’t being done for them

    A consultancy founded by Jim Messina, a former White House official [who was Barack Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager and is now working for the Conservative Party], has surveyed voters in key marginal seats, by-election contests and the Scottish referendum.

    The Conservatives insist that they have not commissioned the work by Messina Quantitative Research, describing it as an independent company. However, a party spokesman refused to deny that the business was sharing its findings with Tory strategists.

    Ukip suggested that the Conservatives had reached an arm’s-length arrangement with MQR in order to bypass the £100,000 spending limit for by-election campaigns, including that in Rochester and Strood.

    “It’s very odd that Jim Messina is calling people and saying that it’s for independent purposes,” a Ukip source said. “What are they doing with this information? He’s not polling Rochester and Strood on behalf of Barack Obama.”…

    Call operatives from the company told survey respondents in the constituency that they were not working on behalf of any political parties but added: “If we collect enough information we may publish the results.” A spokesman for MQR declined to explain what this meant…"

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/87787/mystery-phone-polling-tories-say-isnt-done/

    That article doesn't use the phrase push polling.

    Given that Jim Messina has threatened to sue people for making that allegation you shouldn't make that sort of allegation.

    FYI - Bankrupts can't be MPs
    Well if you are convinced then that's down to you. I know what I think, and what any impartial person would make of it.

    ... and also what you would think if it wasn't the Tories doing it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    Careful here. Messina threatened to sue for defamation when UKIP first alleged this:

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1478661.ece
    Or

    "Careful here, we might be rumbled"
    No, I think he's being genuinely helpful, especially for a candidate MP!


  • FYI - Bankrupts can't be MPs

    Is that intellectually or otherwise?

    :)
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    This site quotes from The Times

    "The mystery of the phone polling the Tories say isn’t being done for them

    A consultancy founded by Jim Messina, a former White House official [who was Barack Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager and is now working for the Conservative Party], has surveyed voters in key marginal seats, by-election contests and the Scottish referendum.

    The Conservatives insist that they have not commissioned the work by Messina Quantitative Research, describing it as an independent company. However, a party spokesman refused to deny that the business was sharing its findings with Tory strategists.

    Ukip suggested that the Conservatives had reached an arm’s-length arrangement with MQR in order to bypass the £100,000 spending limit for by-election campaigns, including that in Rochester and Strood.

    “It’s very odd that Jim Messina is calling people and saying that it’s for independent purposes,” a Ukip source said. “What are they doing with this information? He’s not polling Rochester and Strood on behalf of Barack Obama.”…

    Call operatives from the company told survey respondents in the constituency that they were not working on behalf of any political parties but added: “If we collect enough information we may publish the results.” A spokesman for MQR declined to explain what this meant…"

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/87787/mystery-phone-polling-tories-say-isnt-done/

    That article doesn't use the phrase push polling.

    Given that Jim Messina has threatened to sue people for making that allegation you shouldn't make that sort of allegation.

    FYI - Bankrupts can't be MPs
    Well if you are convinced then that's down to you. I know what I think, and what any impartial person would make of it.

    ... and also what you would think if it wasn't the Tories doing it
    Just for complete disclosure, I won't go into further details, but I'm more knowledgeable about the Messina story than most, so unless people can back up their assertions of push polling with a link from reputable site then that allegation isn't going to be allowed on PB.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Given that we now know that the Tory's Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester, and given how many threads on here are devoted to polling, isn't it a surprise that OGH hasn't written a thread about it?

    It's probably the biggest controversy in polling this year, and only I have mentioned it

    When OGH thought UKIP had got the Survation question mixed up he was all over it on twitter.. but now, nothing

    Do you have a link to show it definitely was Jim Messina?
    This site quotes from The Times

    "The mystery of the phone polling the Tories say isn’t being done for them

    A consultancy founded by Jim Messina, a former White House official [who was Barack Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager and is now working for the Conservative Party], has surveyed voters in key marginal seats, by-election contests and the Scottish referendum.

    The Conservatives insist that they have not commissioned the work by Messina Quantitative Research, describing it as an independent company. However, a party spokesman refused to deny that the business was sharing its findings with Tory strategists.

    Ukip suggested that the Conservatives had reached an arm’s-length arrangement with MQR in order to bypass the £100,000 spending limit for by-election campaigns, including that in Rochester and Strood.

    “It’s very odd that Jim Messina is calling people and saying that it’s for independent purposes,” a Ukip source said. “What are they doing with this information? He’s not polling Rochester and Strood on behalf of Barack Obama.”…

    Call operatives from the company told survey respondents in the constituency that they were not working on behalf of any political parties but added: “If we collect enough information we may publish the results.” A spokesman for MQR declined to explain what this meant…"

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/87787/mystery-phone-polling-tories-say-isnt-done/

    That article doesn't use the phrase push polling.

    Given that Jim Messina has threatened to sue people for making that allegation you shouldn't make that sort of allegation.

    FYI - Bankrupts can't be MPs
    Well if you are convinced then that's down to you. I know what I think, and what any impartial person would make of it.

    ... and also what you would think if it wasn't the Tories doing it
    Just for complete disclosure, I won't go into further details, but I'm more knowledgeable about the Messina story than most, so unless people can back up their assertions of push polling with a link from reputable site then that allegation isn't going to be allowed on PB.
    The Times isn't a reputable source?
This discussion has been closed.