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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Until we can get a clearer fix on LAB in Scotland GE15 is almost impossible to call

By my reckoning LAB, based on the Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals, could be on target to make at least 50 gains or more from CON and the LDs at GE2015. More LAB possibles might come into the frame when Lord A has polled seats with CON majorities higher up target list.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Indeed

Bandit1

100 PC Mr cleggs good friend Danny will lose . And anyone taking a buy of 22 with sporting index cannot lose . The SNP are growing daily and not getting weaker

Morris_Dancer

Bah, curse of the new thread.

FPT:
Good evening, everyone.

Don't forget to read my F1 season review, up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/2014-f1-season-review.html

Unless you don't like F1, of course, in which case reading it would make as much sense as trying to impregnate a postbox.

Mr. Indigo, just one more reason why we should leave the vile anti-democratic unaccountable cabal of meddlesome foreign eunuchs that is the EU.

This thread:
We need to try and guess who shy voters might be. Labour might be getting under-estimated in Scotland, but they might also be losing more than they think to UKIP in the north. In the south, Conservative support may hold up better than expected. Just my guess, anyway.

Bandit1

My Money is on 30 + and I expect to win

stodge

Afternoon all

Not long back from a manic Lakeside - signs of a recovery or consumer-led boom or simply the continuation of "Black Friday" ? Far too early to read the economic runes.

On seat numbers, I believe Labour are 283-286 on the spread. If you think 50-60 gains in England and Wales will be offset by 20-30 losses in Scotland, it still looks a good BUY.

I can't remember the Conservative numbers - 275-278 perhaps. A net 40-50 losses to Labour offset by 10-15 gains from the LDs would suggest the spread is close to the mark and I wouldn't play on it at this time.

numbercruncher

Very good point - I think Lord Ashcroft's Scottish polling will be very interesting indeed.

Meanwhile, I've now had a chance to go over his current wave of marginals polling. To summarise:

- About half of Doncaster North Conservatives would need to go purple to unseat the Labour leader. Tories aren't known for tactical voting - the chance to decapitate Labour will doubtless tempt a few, but how many? Miliband has a comfortable majority to begin with

- In Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg is behind on standard voting intention but ahead of constituency voting intention, consistent with Lib Dem incumbency, but seemingly with less of a boost than other MPs in his party.

- Clegg also starts with a substantial majority, but with such a large student vote, Labour feel it is "soft". Another complicating factor, perhaps unsurprisingly given the demographics, is the extent of the Green surge, nudging double digits with five times their 2010 vote share on both questions.

- In Sheffield Hallam the Conservatives are polling 23% on the first question but 19% on the second - if it really is this close, then this implied 4% tactical swing would be enough to save Clegg.

- Nigel Farage was previously a strong favourite in Thanet South, but is now 4 or 5 points behind the Tories. There doesn't seem to be much sign of tactical voting, and if there is, which way will it go?

- There were rumours that Farage might be thinking of standing elsewhere, which as a non-incumbent he could do easily enough, but what about the political consequences?

- Decapitations are rarely successful and leaders losing their own seats rarer still. No 'big two' party leader has lost his or her seat since 1931 and, excluding those exceptional circumstances, no leader of HM opposition ever has.

- What is more likely though, is that the three party leaders have an unwelcome distraction close to home, with could divert their attention from national matters.

- In the more traditional battleground polling, individual seats are interesting, but in aggregate, nothing hugely different from last time. The LIB-CON swing is little changed at 2%, a couple of points less than in Ashcroft National Polls.

- If we adjust for the Ashcroft House effect (which typically has the big two lower than other pollsters) then Brecon and Radnorshire looks like being close.

Full writeup:

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/11/local-distractions-for-party-leaders.html

isam

numbercruncher said:

Very good point - I think Lord Ashcroft's Scottish polling will be very interesting indeed.

Meanwhile, I've now had a chance to go over his current wave of marginals polling. To summarise:

- About half of Doncaster North Conservatives would need to go purple to unseat the Labour leader. Tories aren't known for tactical voting - the chance to decapitate Labour will doubtless tempt a few, but how many? Miliband has a comfortable majority to begin with

- In Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg is behind on standard voting intention but ahead of constituency voting intention, consistent with Lib Dem incumbency, but seemingly with less of a boost than other MPs in his party.

- Clegg also starts with a substantial majority, but with such a large student vote, Labour feel it is "soft". Another complicating factor, perhaps unsurprisingly given the demographics, is the extent of the Green surge, nudging double digits with five times their 2010 vote share on both questions.

- In Sheffield Hallam the Conservatives are polling 23% on the first question but 19% on the second - if it really is this close, then this implied 4% tactical swing would be enough to save Clegg.

- Nigel Farage was previously a strong favourite in Thanet South, but is now 4 or 5 points behind the Tories. There doesn't seem to be much sign of tactical voting, and if there is, which way will it go?

- There were rumours that Farage might be thinking of standing elsewhere, which as a non-incumbent he could do easily enough, but what about the political consequences?

- Decapitations are rarely successful and leaders losing their own seats rarer still. No 'big two' party leader has lost his or her seat since 1931 and, excluding those exceptional circumstances, no leader of HM opposition ever has.

- What is more likely though, is that the three party leaders have an unwelcome distraction close to home, with could divert their attention from national matters.

- In the more traditional battleground polling, individual seats are interesting, but in aggregate, nothing hugely different from last time. The LIB-CON swing is little changed at 2%, a couple of points less than in Ashcroft National Polls.

- If we adjust for the Ashcroft House effect (which typically has the big two lower than other pollsters) then Brecon and Radnorshire looks like being close.

Full writeup:

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/11/local-distractions-for-party-leaders.html

Farage at 5/6 in South Thanet is a great bet

MikeSmithson

isam said:

numbercruncher said:

Very good point - I think Lord Ashcroft's Scottish polling will be very interesting indeed.

Meanwhile, I've now had a chance to go over his current wave of marginals polling. To summarise:

- About half of Doncaster North Conservatives would need to go purple to unseat the Labour leader. Tories aren't known for tactical voting - the chance to decapitate Labour will doubtless tempt a few, but how many? Miliband has a comfortable majority to begin with

- In Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg is behind on standard voting intention but ahead of constituency voting intention, consistent with Lib Dem incumbency, but seemingly with less of a boost than other MPs in his party.

- Clegg also starts with a substantial majority, but with such a large student vote, Labour feel it is "soft". Another complicating factor, perhaps unsurprisingly given the demographics, is the extent of the Green surge, nudging double digits with five times their 2010 vote share on both questions.

- In Sheffield Hallam the Conservatives are polling 23% on the first question but 19% on the second - if it really is this close, then this implied 4% tactical swing would be enough to save Clegg.

- Nigel Farage was previously a strong favourite in Thanet South, but is now 4 or 5 points behind the Tories. There doesn't seem to be much sign of tactical voting, and if there is, which way will it go?

- There were rumours that Farage might be thinking of standing elsewhere, which as a non-incumbent he could do easily enough, but what about the political consequences?

- Decapitations are rarely successful and leaders losing their own seats rarer still. No 'big two' party leader has lost his or her seat since 1931 and, excluding those exceptional circumstances, no leader of HM opposition ever has.

- What is more likely though, is that the three party leaders have an unwelcome distraction close to home, with could divert their attention from national matters.

- In the more traditional battleground polling, individual seats are interesting, but in aggregate, nothing hugely different from last time. The LIB-CON swing is little changed at 2%, a couple of points less than in Ashcroft National Polls.

- If we adjust for the Ashcroft House effect (which typically has the big two lower than other pollsters) then Brecon and Radnorshire looks like being close.

Full writeup:

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/11/local-distractions-for-party-leaders.html

Farage at 5/6 in South Thanet is a great bet

Especially if you have 9/2 on the Tories as well.

Bandit1

Isam when you say great bet this is paddy power who are a joke !!

numbercruncher

isam said:

numbercruncher said:

Very good point - I think Lord Ashcroft's Scottish polling will be very interesting indeed.

Meanwhile, I've now had a chance to go over his current wave of marginals polling. To summarise:

- About half of Doncaster North Conservatives would need to go purple to unseat the Labour leader. Tories aren't known for tactical voting - the chance to decapitate Labour will doubtless tempt a few, but how many? Miliband has a comfortable majority to begin with

- In Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg is behind on standard voting intention but ahead of constituency voting intention, consistent with Lib Dem incumbency, but seemingly with less of a boost than other MPs in his party.

- Clegg also starts with a substantial majority, but with such a large student vote, Labour feel it is "soft". Another complicating factor, perhaps unsurprisingly given the demographics, is the extent of the Green surge, nudging double digits with five times their 2010 vote share on both questions.

- In Sheffield Hallam the Conservatives are polling 23% on the first question but 19% on the second - if it really is this close, then this implied 4% tactical swing would be enough to save Clegg.

- Nigel Farage was previously a strong favourite in Thanet South, but is now 4 or 5 points behind the Tories. There doesn't seem to be much sign of tactical voting, and if there is, which way will it go?

- There were rumours that Farage might be thinking of standing elsewhere, which as a non-incumbent he could do easily enough, but what about the political consequences?

- Decapitations are rarely successful and leaders losing their own seats rarer still. No 'big two' party leader has lost his or her seat since 1931 and, excluding those exceptional circumstances, no leader of HM opposition ever has.

- What is more likely though, is that the three party leaders have an unwelcome distraction close to home, with could divert their attention from national matters.

- In the more traditional battleground polling, individual seats are interesting, but in aggregate, nothing hugely different from last time. The LIB-CON swing is little changed at 2%, a couple of points less than in Ashcroft National Polls.

- If we adjust for the Ashcroft House effect (which typically has the big two lower than other pollsters) then Brecon and Radnorshire looks like being close.

Full writeup:

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/11/local-distractions-for-party-leaders.html

Farage at 5/6 in South Thanet is a great bet

And of course, he wasn't named on the poll...

isam

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

numbercruncher said:

Very good point - I think Lord Ashcroft's Scottish polling will be very interesting indeed.

Meanwhile, I've now had a chance to go over his current wave of marginals polling. To summarise:

- About half of Doncaster North Conservatives would need to go purple to unseat the Labour leader. Tories aren't known for tactical voting - the chance to decapitate Labour will doubtless tempt a few, but how many? Miliband has a comfortable majority to begin with

- In Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg is behind on standard voting intention but ahead of constituency voting intention, consistent with Lib Dem incumbency, but seemingly with less of a boost than other MPs in his party.

- Clegg also starts with a substantial majority, but with such a large student vote, Labour feel it is "soft". Another complicating factor, perhaps unsurprisingly given the demographics, is the extent of the Green surge, nudging double digits with five times their 2010 vote share on both questions.

- In Sheffield Hallam the Conservatives are polling 23% on the first question but 19% on the second - if it really is this close, then this implied 4% tactical swing would be enough to save Clegg.

- Nigel Farage was previously a strong favourite in Thanet South, but is now 4 or 5 points behind the Tories. There doesn't seem to be much sign of tactical voting, and if there is, which way will it go?

- There were rumours that Farage might be thinking of standing elsewhere, which as a non-incumbent he could do easily enough, but what about the political consequences?

- Decapitations are rarely successful and leaders losing their own seats rarer still. No 'big two' party leader has lost his or her seat since 1931 and, excluding those exceptional circumstances, no leader of HM opposition ever has.

- What is more likely though, is that the three party leaders have an unwelcome distraction close to home, with could divert their attention from national matters.

- In the more traditional battleground polling, individual seats are interesting, but in aggregate, nothing hugely different from last time. The LIB-CON swing is little changed at 2%, a couple of points less than in Ashcroft National Polls.

- If we adjust for the Ashcroft House effect (which typically has the big two lower than other pollsters) then Brecon and Radnorshire looks like being close.

Full writeup:

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/11/local-distractions-for-party-leaders.html

Farage at 5/6 in South Thanet is a great bet

Especially if you have 9/2 on the Tories as well.

Even better!

isam

Bandit1 said:

Isam when you say great bet this is paddy power who are a joke !!

They laid me £125 @16/1 Thurrock UKIP, you have to choose your shop wisely!

AndyJS

Swing required by Labour to win a majority, given x number of losses to SNP:

0: 4.70%
5: 5.05%
10: 5.43%
15: 5.75%
20: 6.12%
25: 6.25%
30: 6.45%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE&usp=drive_web#gid=0

ydoethur

'Decapitations are rarely successful and leaders losing their own seats rarer still. No 'big two' party leader has lost his or her seat since 1931 and, excluding those exceptional circumstances, no leader of HM opposition ever has.'

Arthur Balfour, 1906. But your comment is still true in the age of universal suffrage.

In the case of the Liberals though, losing their leader was a frequent occupational hazard - it happened in 1918, 1924, 1935, 1945, and came within a whisker of happening in 1970 as well (would have been better for them if the last had happened, with hindsight, as the leader in question was Jeremy Thorpe). It would be surprising if Nick Clegg lost his seat, for all the reasons you list, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

I don't know Sheffield. I get the feeling that the Tories and their Liberal Democrat allies do less well the further north you go in terms of swing, however, over and above the famous 'north/south divide' - would that affect Sheffield as well?

Bandit1

Isam you must be a loser otherwise you would never get the bet on

Danny565

My prediction is SNP 34%, Labour 31%, Tories 18%, Lib Dems 6%.

Which according to electoral calculus ( http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html ) would mean Labour would narrowly remain the biggest party, with 28 seats to the SNP's 26.

Bandit1

Isam you will of course post your bet on here ?

Bandit1

That would be great with Date shown

Artist

I wonder what Labour's election strategy in Scotland will be. First option would be to try and 'borrow' a vote from SNP type voters, on the basis that they're both progressive parties who don't want five more years of the Conservatives. The second option is they'll attack the SNP head on to try and convince the voters they've lost back and maybe get some tactical unionist votes. If Murphy gets elected I think it'll be the second option.

isam

Bandit1 said:

Isam you must be a loser otherwise you would never get the bet on

No I am a winner with Paddy that why they've closed 12 accounts of mine

But I got the bet on in a shop

Bandit1

Isam you do more after timing than Mr Smithson and that takes some doing

isam

Bandit1 said:

Isam you do more after timing than Mr Smithson and that takes some doing

Do you really not believe me? Why would I make it up?

I can prove it if you like but that would make you look really foolish

Sunil_Prasannan

Is there a ComRes out today? Unless they come to the rescue, ELBOW so far seems to be showing that one of the two main parties has taken a hit to the benefit of one of the two lesser parties...

More later!

MikeSmithson

isam said:

Bandit1 said:

Isam when you say great bet this is paddy power who are a joke !!

They laid me £125 @16/1 Thurrock UKIP, you have to choose your shop wisely!

I find that absolutely incredible. Whenever I've been into a PP shop they've trimmed me down to £50 max when going for longish odds.

numbercruncher

ydoethur said:

Arthur Balfour, 1906

OK you got me there, but I would also mark that as "exceptional circumstances" (change of PM and governing party the month before the election). I've corrected the linked version.

Bandit1

I know a manager of the firm who has assured me" unless the punter is a known loser we would never take it " Any punter like myself who cant even get a fiver on with them would agree

MikeSmithson

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Is there a ComRes out today? Unless they come to the rescue, ELBOW so far seems to be showing that one of the two main parties has taken a hit to the benefit of one of the two lesser parties...

More later!

ComRes/Indy phone polls usually come out on Mondays - NEVER on Sundays.

Danny565

Artist said:

I wonder what Labour's election strategy in Scotland will be. First option would be to try and 'borrow' a vote from SNP type voters, on the basis that they're both progressive parties who don't want five more years of the Conservatives. The second option is they'll attack the SNP head on to try and convince the voters they've lost back and maybe get some tactical unionist votes. If Murphy gets elected I think it'll be the second option.

I suppose it's too much to ask for that their strategy is positive reasons about what a Labour government would do, rather than negative reasons about why people should'n't vote for other parties.

isam

Bandit1 said:

I know a manager of the firm who has assured me" unless the punter is a known loser we would never take it " Any punter like myself who cant even get a fiver on with them would agree

As I said, I have had 12 accounts closed by PP in various names, but I got the bet on in a shop

See profile pic

MikeSmithson

Bandit1 said:

I know a manager of the firm who has assured me" unless the punter is a known loser we would never take it " Any punter like myself who cant even get a fiver on with them would agree

When you try to make a bet in a shop it can get referred to a trader at the firm's HQ who is able to look at you on the shop's CCTV.

Financier

Apols OGH, but going back to the previous thread where a lot of hot typing was dispensed over the effects of immigrants (e.g. Polish plumbers) on the potential wage rates of the unemployed and who is benefiting from this lower cost.

This is really a window of opportunity for the eastern Europeans whereby they can earn more in the UK and remit their savings home as long as wage rates are higher in the UK than in Poland. Also from the employers' viewpoint, the total employment costs have to be lower by employing an eastern European than an unemployed UK person, notwithstanding willingness to work.

As @foxinsox implied, if workfare was introduced for the UK unemployed in return for their benefits, we may have fewer immigrants here and so less pressure on housing, NHS etc. (Labour and LDs would oppose that policy).

However, whilst globalisation was mentioned, the real implications for UK exporters was not explored. As a UK high-tech consultancy, we charge in excess of £100 per hour for our services ( as do most UK solicitors). This is fine with the oil majors globally as they are willing to pay such prices in the knowledge that we have the competency to do the right job.

However, the standard of technical expertise in the BRIC countries is growing rapidly and our equivalent in India will charge 25%-50% of our rate as their labour costs are far lower. So potentially this affects our export growth, unless we set up a branch in India - which will have to have mainly Indian employees. We can only charge our UK rate in export markets if we continue to be ahead in the technology race.

Unfortunately, the general standard of UK graduates is declining along with the standard of UK education, whilst that those from Asia is increasing, where aspiration to be best is highly valued.

Thus it remains a puzzle to me why Labour wants to educate everyone to the lowest common standard, instead of wanting to educate all to the best of their ability - Labour's answer is to penalise the schools that educate our children the best

Scrapheap_as_was

Bobby sol..

isam

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

Bandit1 said:

Isam when you say great bet this is paddy power who are a joke !!

They laid me £125 @16/1 Thurrock UKIP, you have to choose your shop wisely!

I find that absolutely incredible. Whenever I've been into a PP shop they've trimmed me down to £50 max when going for longish odds.

Incredible or not, it is true, as my pic shows

Oh it was £75 & £50 in two goes though

Bandit1

You must be a heavy loser overall to get anything like that on . The manager would have told the trader "he is a known loser "

Sunil_Prasannan

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Is there a ComRes out today? Unless they come to the rescue, ELBOW so far seems to be showing that one of the two main parties has taken a hit to the benefit of one of the two lesser parties...

More later!

ComRes/Indy phone polls usually come out on Mondays - NEVER on Sundays.

Don't the headline figures at least appear in either the Sunday Mirror or the Indy on Sunday? Or is that every other fortnight?

isam

Bandit1 said:

You must be a heavy loser overall to get anything like that on . The manager would have told the trader "he is a known loser "

Haha I doubt it

It was a 20 yr old girl behind the counter, and the first time I had been in the shop

You seem a bit grumpy?

Morris_Dancer

Utterly off-topic (unlike the post I made about an F1 season review, of course), but I've just finished King of Thorns by Mark Lawrence. It's really very good. Grimdark fantasy (second in a series, so check out Prince of Thorns first, if you're interested).

I'll put up a review on my blog probably tomorrow.

MikeSmithson

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Is there a ComRes out today? Unless they come to the rescue, ELBOW so far seems to be showing that one of the two main parties has taken a hit to the benefit of one of the two lesser parties...

More later!

ComRes/Indy phone polls usually come out on Mondays - NEVER on Sundays.

Don't the headline figures at least appear in either the Sunday Mirror or the Indy on Sunday? Or is that every other fortnight?

NO.
IoS/S Mirror ComRes polls are online and come out mid-month.

The Indy ComRes poll is a phone survey and totally different. It usually comes out at the end of months.

Big_G_NorthWales

Danny565 said:

My prediction is SNP 34%, Labour 31%, Tories 18%, Lib Dems 6%.

Which according to electoral calculus ( http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html ) would mean Labour would narrowly remain the biggest party, with 28 seats to the SNP's 26.

In the current climate in Scotland the SNP will be miles ahead of labour in 2015. It is just too soon after the referendum for labour to recover. Indeed it is likely to be several years before there is a closing of the gap between SNP and labour.

Sunil_Prasannan

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Is there a ComRes out today? Unless they come to the rescue, ELBOW so far seems to be showing that one of the two main parties has taken a hit to the benefit of one of the two lesser parties...

More later!

ComRes/Indy phone polls usually come out on Mondays - NEVER on Sundays.

Don't the headline figures at least appear in either the Sunday Mirror or the Indy on Sunday? Or is that every other fortnight?

NO.
IoS/S Mirror ComRes polls are online and come out mid-month.

The Indy ComRes poll is a phone survey and totally different. It usually comes out at the end of months.

Ah yes, I see it now on the list in Wiki. By "every other fortnight", I of course meant monthly!

Guess I'm gonna have to keep you in all in suspense till tomorrow then!

NickPalmer

For a clear Scottish picture we probably need to see the impact of the Labour leadership selection, which is shortly (tomorrow?). The new leader should in principle get a honeymoon factor, unless it's a quarrelsome affair!

Roger

Artist

"I wonder what Labour's election strategy in Scotland will be."

A tricky one as the SNP have stolen all Labour's clothes and decided that centre left is what the Scots like so that's what they'll be. Their positioning for the referendum was masterful. A campaign that Mandelson Campbell and Gould couldn't have bettered at the height of their powers.

In terms of strategy it's difficult. My own feeling is that Nicola has one or two weaknesses that a new front line Labour leader might be able to expose.

Big_G_NorthWales

NickPalmer said:

For a clear Scottish picture we probably need to see the impact of the Labour leadership selection, which is shortly (tomorrow?). The new leader should in principle get a honeymoon factor, unless it's a quarrelsome affair!

It is unlikely that Jim Murphy or either of the other two candidates will be able to overcome the huge impetus that the SNP has received since the referendum. I should comment that I have a large Scots family, have lived in Scotland and am married to a Scot and am an observer of Scots politics

TheScreamingEagles

The other thing we need to see from the polling is are Scottish voters prepared to vote tactically to stop the Nats or unionists winning in their seat

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

Artist

"I wonder what Labour's election strategy in Scotland will be."

A tricky one as the SNP have stolen all Labour's clothes and decided that centre left is what the Scots like so that's what they'll be. Their positioning for the referendum was masterful. A campaign that Mandelson Campbell and Gould couldn't have bettered at the height of their powers.

In terms of strategy it's difficult. My own feeling is that Nicola has one or two weaknesses that a new front line Labour leader might be able to expose.

"Their positioning for the referendum was masterful. A campaign that Mandelson Campbell and Gould couldn't have bettered at the height of their powers."

So good in fact, that they lost

surbiton

Danny565 said:

My prediction is SNP 34%, Labour 31%, Tories 18%, Lib Dems 6%.

Which according to electoral calculus ( http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html ) would mean Labour would narrowly remain the biggest party, with 28 seats to the SNP's 26.

My current weighted average based on the last 8 Yougov Scottish sub samples is:

SNP 42%, Lab 26%, C 17.8%, LD 4.9%

It would require a 6.5% swing from SNP to Labour from the current situation by May 2015.

Having said that they were all Labour voters. An SNP win against Labour helps the Tories overall as their chances of becoming the largest party increases.

MarkSenior

I would remind everyone there was a Scottish Westminster VI poll by Ipsos Mori in November 2009 which had the SNP in the lead . It caused some on here to predict mass gains for the SNP in the 2010 GE .

surbiton

MarkSenior said:

I would remind everyone there was a Scottish Westminster VI poll by Ipsos Mori in November 2009 which had the SNP in the lead . It caused some on here to predict mass gains for the SNP in the 2010 GE .

This one:

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scottish-public-opinion-monitor-voting-intention-september-2009.pdf

isam

MikeSmithson said:

Bandit1 said:

I know a manager of the firm who has assured me" unless the punter is a known loser we would never take it " Any punter like myself who cant even get a fiver on with them would agree

When you try to make a bet in a shop it can get referred to a trader at the firm's HQ who is able to look at you on the shop's CCTV.

By the way whoever told you that about CCTV was having you on I think Mike

Big_G_NorthWales

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

My prediction is SNP 34%, Labour 31%, Tories 18%, Lib Dems 6%.

Which according to electoral calculus ( http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html ) would mean Labour would narrowly remain the biggest party, with 28 seats to the SNP's 26.

My current weighted average based on the last 8 Yougov Scottish sub samples is:

SNP 42%, Lab 26%, C 17.8%, LD 4.9%

It would require a 6.5% swing from SNP to Labour from the current situation by May 2015.

Having said that they were all Labour voters. An SNP win against Labour helps the Tories overall as their chances of becoming the largest party increases.

The current weighted average of 42/26/17.8/4.9 would appear to reflect the present position but it is extremely unlikely there will be any swing from SNP to labour, much more likely the other way round and by some

marktheowl

isam said:

numbercruncher said:

- In Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg is behind on standard voting intention but ahead of constituency voting intention, consistent with Lib Dem incumbency, but seemingly with less of a boost than other MPs in his party.

- Clegg also starts with a substantial majority, but with such a large student vote, Labour feel it is "soft". Another complicating factor, perhaps unsurprisingly given the demographics, is the extent of the Green surge, nudging double digits with five times their 2010 vote share on both questions.

- In Sheffield Hallam the Conservatives are polling 23% on the first question but 19% on the second - if it really is this close, then this implied 4% tactical swing would be enough to save Clegg.

- Decapitations are rarely successful and leaders losing their own seats rarer still. No 'big two' party leader has lost his or her seat since 1931 and, excluding those exceptional circumstances, no leader of HM opposition ever has.

- What is more likely though, is that the three party leaders have an unwelcome distraction close to home, with could divert their attention from national matters.

- In the more traditional battleground polling, individual seats are interesting, but in aggregate, nothing hugely different from last time. The LIB-CON swing is little changed at 2%, a couple of points less than in Ashcroft National Polls.

Full writeup:

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/11/local-distractions-for-party-leaders.html

Farage at 5/6 in South Thanet is a great bet

Clegg could end up in an extremely awkward position at the next election, given that most of his MPs are in seats with the Tories as their nearest challenger - as such it would make sense tactically to tack left, say you kept the Tories in check and denounce Osborne's future spending plans as reckless and heartless and the sort of thing you went into coalition to stop, in order to shore up the anti-Tory vote where possible - not quite 'vote Ed, get Dave', but make damn sure you don't let the blues get an overall majority or regret the consequences. However Clegg himself could rely on Tories turning out to stop Labour beating him, given his own close association with the coalition and the electoral maths.

It's utterly bizarre that he hasn't faced some kind of challenge - you've got a leader who's leading you to record breaking lows, and whose own personal interests don't align with the most obvious way to salvage some kind of electoral respectability - and yet no one, even an ambitious chancer bothers to try and oust him. The Lib Dems seemed to have slipped from the optimism in adversity of 2011/12 (we'll be fine when the economy picks up) to grim acceptance of their fate without any fight against the dying of the light. It's just weird.

surbiton

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Artist

"I wonder what Labour's election strategy in Scotland will be."

A tricky one as the SNP have stolen all Labour's clothes and decided that centre left is what the Scots like so that's what they'll be. Their positioning for the referendum was masterful. A campaign that Mandelson Campbell and Gould couldn't have bettered at the height of their powers.

In terms of strategy it's difficult. My own feeling is that Nicola has one or two weaknesses that a new front line Labour leader might be able to expose.

"Their positioning for the referendum was masterful. A campaign that Mandelson Campbell and Gould couldn't have bettered at the height of their powers."

So good in fact, that they lost

I disagree. A year from the referendum, nobody would have given the YES 45%.

But the slight uptick in SCON fortunes has probably resulted from Sturgeon parking her tanks in George Square.

Theuniondivvie

Roger said:

In terms of strategy it's difficult. My own feeling is that Nicola has one or two weaknesses that a new front line Labour leader might be able to expose.

If Murphy wins it could be 18 months before he's on the front line at Holyrood. A helpful SLab constituency MSP might stand aside, but there are only 16 of them.

JonnyJimmy

I've been thinking about Labour's promise to spend all of their home tax raid on the NHS.

First off, do we have any real hypothecated taxes in this country? Vehicle tax and fuel tax aren't spent on roads, as far as I can tell. National insurance isn't spent on any real insurance policy for the people paying it. I'm sure I could come up with many other examples if I tried..

Are they guaranteeing the amount they'll raise from it so they can actually be sure of how much they'll be able to spend extra on the NHS? I think they're claiming that they'll get £2.5bn from it, that'll work out at just over a million per hospital, or about 2% of the money currently spent on the NHS. Is that going to make a significant difference? Aren't they claiming it'll save the NHS, which they were planning to make cuts to in their 2010 manifesto?

Also, is there any way that they can just spend the money, if they do raise the figure they claim, on an extra however many nurses and doctors? Wouldn't the extra frontline staff also mean extra administrators and more money spent on their resources?

Basically, are they just making ludicrous claims on nearly every level?

surbiton

Theuniondivvie said:

Roger said:

In terms of strategy it's difficult. My own feeling is that Nicola has one or two weaknesses that a new front line Labour leader might be able to expose.

If Murphy wins it could be 18 months before he's on the front line at Holyrood. A helpful SLab constituency MSP might stand aside, but there are only 16 of them.

On the other hand, he will be on effectively a GE campaign from the very off.

Roger

Alanbrooke

"So good in fact, that they lost"

I know the concept of handicapping might be tricky but imagine the great British bake-off between the world famous Patisserie Valerie from Soho and Aunty Nell's cake shop from Ludlow and Aunty Nell coming within a hairs breadth of winning........

A victory of sorts.....

audreyanne

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/11/the-menace-of-memes-how-pictures-can-paint-a-thousand-lies/

Love it!

Flightpath

Hello Financier --- you make good points.

Lack of education lack of determination lack of interest. These are the failings of our country. Its not the fault of others. We obsess about the wrong issue. Its not immigration. its why -
a - our own available workforce cannot will not fill the jobs
b - our own educational standards are leaving us open to be even more uncompetitive in the future.

Roger

Audreyanne


http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/11/the-menace-of-memes-how-pictures-can-paint-a-thousand-lies/


Very funny!

bigjohnowls

JonnyJimmy said:

I've been thinking about Labour's promise to spend all of their home tax raid on the NHS.

First off, do we have any real hypothecated taxes in this country? Vehicle tax and fuel tax aren't spent on roads, as far as I can tell. National insurance isn't spent on any real insurance policy for the people paying it. I'm sure I could come up with many other examples if I tried..

Are they guaranteeing the amount they'll raise from it so they can actually be sure of how much they'll be able to spend extra on the NHS? I think they're claiming that they'll get £2.5bn from it, that'll work out at just over a million per hospital, or about 2% of the money currently spent on the NHS. Is that going to make a significant difference? Aren't they claiming it'll save the NHS, which they were planning to make cuts to in their 2010 manifesto?

Also, is there any way that they can just spend the money, if they do raise the figure they claim, on an extra however many nurses and doctors? Wouldn't the extra frontline staff also mean extra administrators and more money spent on their resources?

Basically, are they just making ludicrous claims on nearly every level?

Great news that the Tories have tried to match the promise from some kind of MMT

Theuniondivvie

surbiton said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Roger said:

In terms of strategy it's difficult. My own feeling is that Nicola has one or two weaknesses that a new front line Labour leader might be able to expose.

If Murphy wins it could be 18 months before he's on the front line at Holyrood. A helpful SLab constituency MSP might stand aside, but there are only 16 of them.

On the other hand, he will be on effectively a GE campaign from the very off.

Probably, and I'm sure the ever helpful Scottish msm will happily give him a platform. However week in & week out, it'll be his C list deputy getting thrashed at FMQs.

Roger

UnionD

"Probably, and I'm sure the ever helpful Scottish msm will happily give him a platform. However week in & week out, it'll be his C list deputy getting thrashed at FMQs."

I'm not a big fan of Murphy but if anyone can harness the Tory and Lib Dem voters to vote tactically for Labour it's him

megalomaniacs4u

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Artist

"I wonder what Labour's election strategy in Scotland will be."

A tricky one as the SNP have stolen all Labour's clothes and decided that centre left is what the Scots like so that's what they'll be. Their positioning for the referendum was masterful. A campaign that Mandelson Campbell and Gould couldn't have bettered at the height of their powers.

In terms of strategy it's difficult. My own feeling is that Nicola has one or two weaknesses that a new front line Labour leader might be able to expose.

"Their positioning for the referendum was masterful. A campaign that Mandelson Campbell and Gould couldn't have bettered at the height of their powers."

So good in fact, that they lost

No, so good they nearly won. They had a losing proposition from the start, they very nearly got a win out of it.

Flightpath

Artist said:

I wonder what Labour's election strategy in Scotland will be. First option would be to try and 'borrow' a vote from SNP type voters, on the basis that they're both progressive parties who don't want five more years of the Conservatives. The second option is they'll attack the SNP head on to try and convince the voters they've lost back and maybe get some tactical unionist votes. If Murphy gets elected I think it'll be the second option.

What are the reasons for this slump (and how firm is it)?
The 'very Left' the anti nuclear left would have been committed to YES because they saw an opportunity to remove nuclear weapons and indeed spike the rUKs nuclear deterrent at the same time. They will have been angry with Labour for saying NO. They will have seen a lost opportunity for true lefty policies as well. Clagg will confirm that Hell hath no fury like a Lefty scorned.
Other people may well see that its in Scotlands interest now to have SNP MPs in Westminster to secure more devo or whatever if there is a no overall majority result.
The SNP have clearly swing more to the 'very left' as well so that will create a soft cuddly comfort blanket for theb left inclined.
Labour also seem to have suggested (by no means intentionally) with their opposition to Cameron associating EVEL with more devo, that they do not want to see more devolution, that they have somehow renaged on the stuff Brown was banging on about. Milliband did not mention Brown in his conference speech.

It might be a bit difficult to work out whats happening and what the solution is if the reasons a both several and vague/ irrational.
The lefty lurch of the SNP combined with the NO vote and now the collapse of oil and the clear uneconomic sense in peddling an independent Scotland might well help the Tories.

RobD

audreyanne said:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/11/the-menace-of-memes-how-pictures-can-paint-a-thousand-lies/

Love it!

A shame it won't be shared nearly as much as the original image. Parliament is complicated, it may be that those images were from first reading? The public whip is a good place to see how many MPs actually voted on a particular issue, but I suspect the people who share these images just can't be bothered to actually go and look.

JonnyJimmy

bigjohnowls said:

JonnyJimmy said:

I've been thinking about Labour's promise to spend all of their home tax raid on the NHS.

First off, do we have any real hypothecated taxes in this country? Vehicle tax and fuel tax aren't spent on roads, as far as I can tell. National insurance isn't spent on any real insurance policy for the people paying it. I'm sure I could come up with many other examples if I tried..

Are they guaranteeing the amount they'll raise from it so they can actually be sure of how much they'll be able to spend extra on the NHS? I think they're claiming that they'll get £2.5bn from it, that'll work out at just over a million per hospital, or about 2% of the money currently spent on the NHS. Is that going to make a significant difference? Aren't they claiming it'll save the NHS, which they were planning to make cuts to in their 2010 manifesto?

Also, is there any way that they can just spend the money, if they do raise the figure they claim, on an extra however many nurses and doctors? Wouldn't the extra frontline staff also mean extra administrators and more money spent on their resources?

Basically, are they just making ludicrous claims on nearly every level?

Great news that the Tories have tried to match the promise from some kind of MMT

I think that Osborne claimed it would come from from further welfare cuts. Do you think that's great news because you want to see welfare cut, or because you think the nation will vote against further welfare cuts?

Theuniondivvie

Roger said:

UnionD

"Probably, and I'm sure the ever helpful Scottish msm will happily give him a platform. However week in & week out, it'll be his C list deputy getting thrashed at FMQs."

I'm not a big fan of Murphy but if anyone can harness the Tory and Lib Dem voters to vote tactically for Labour it's him

Regaining Glasgow Labour voters certainly doesn't seem to be part of his core strategy - Jim's definitely more Mail on Sunday than Sunday Mail.

Jim MurphyVerified account ‏@jimmurphymp
"I won't hike up taxes for the middle class" was my message in today's Mail on Sunday.

http://tinyurl.com/o6gv5c8

volcanopete

A Murphy- led Scottish Labour may not be in a position to counteract the political forces against it.Gordon Brown knows the strategic direction Labour must travel in Scotland and to recover from the disastrous coalition with the the Tories in BT he predicted. SLAB are going to need Gordon's help.It remains to be seen whether the 2 men could be in the same room together,let alone the same campaign.Murphy falls neatly into the "red Tory" category too.His challenge is to prove he's not.

HYUFD

Express papers may back UKIP
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1489933.ece

HYUFD

Bandit 1 The SNP were in 3rd in Inverness behind Labour, the SNP were 22% behind Alexander, the Tories 5% behind the SNP, if those Tories vote tactically for Alexander he should be narrowly reelected, especially as Inverness voted No in indyref

HYUFD

volcanopete Murphy now backs the 50% top tax rate the SNP has opposed and full income tax powers for Scotland

Roger

UnionD

Isn't the thinking that he's got Glasgow in the bag but other areas with a sizable Tory and Lib Dem vote might be impressed by his affinity with the right wing press Israel and the other causes he shares with Guido and Mad Mel?

Carnyx

volcanopete said:

A Murphy- led Scottish Labour may not be in a position to counteract the political forces against it.Gordon Brown knows the strategic direction Labour must travel in Scotland and to recover from the disastrous coalition with the the Tories in BT he predicted. SLAB are going to need Gordon's help.It remains to be seen whether the 2 men could be in the same room together,let alone the same campaign.Murphy falls neatly into the "red Tory" category too.His challenge is to prove he's not.

Mm, interesting. But Mr Brown is leaving Parliament at the GE, of course. And also, of course, Mr Brown would have to obey Mr Murphy as his leader.

That is assuming Mr M (a) gets elected [edit: as Scottish Labour leader] and (b) can achieve/survive the transition to become MSP - in which case, by the way, his prospective deputy would presumably be dumped as being a MSP, infavour of a Labour MP: a point I have not seen raised).

HYUFD

Personally I think Labour will make fewer gains from the Tories than OGH suggests, especially as the gap between the 2 is now virtually nil and if the UKIP vote declines slightly and the Green vote holds up. The Stockton poll showed a seat Labour should be winning easily on national vote share staying Tory, the Tories may benefit a little from incumbency as the LDs do.

However, in Scotland I would also expect the SNP surge to begin to recede now further devolution is being set in train, Labour could well come out on top in Scottish seats even if the SNP has a narrow poll lead, the SNP suffer from the same problem as the Tories in that respect in that the electoral system helps Labour

HYUFD

JonnyJim You have to have made NI payments to claim a state pension and contributory JSA

Danny565

Roger said:

UnionD

Isn't the thinking that he's got Glasgow in the bag but other areas with a sizable Tory and Lib Dem vote might be impressed by his affinity with the right wing press Israel and the other causes he shares with Guido and Mad Mel?

But Glasgow most certainly isn't in the bag for Labour, judging by the 2011 election and the independence referendum.

And the Scottish Tories by now are surely down to their absolute hardcore of the super-wealthy, so I don't think there's much prospect of even the most right-wing Labour leader winning them over. The SNP are the only place Labour can go for votes, and I can't really see how Murphy's "Blairite" policies are going to do that.

anotherDave

HYUFD said:

Express papers may back UKIP
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1489933.ece

May? I thought they were backing them already.

HYUFD

MalcolmG (Previous thread) If you are working you can also claim housing benefit to help pay your rent if on minimum wage so if you are including housing benefit that increases the minimum wage figure too. Of course housing benefit if you are single and unemployed only pays for one room, not a great apartment

HYUFD

Danny565 The Tory seat of Dumfrieshire, the only 1 in Scotland is by no means superwealthy but full of farmers, the Tory Scottish vote is based on rural areas not the very rich otherwise central Edinburgh would still have a Tory seat. Indeed, multimillionaire Scots like Sir George Mathewson and Brian Souter now vote SNP

volcanopete

Carnyx said:

volcanopete said:

A Murphy- led Scottish Labour may not be in a position to counteract the political forces against it.Gordon Brown knows the strategic direction Labour must travel in Scotland and to recover from the disastrous coalition with the the Tories in BT he predicted. SLAB are going to need Gordon's help.It remains to be seen whether the 2 men could be in the same room together,let alone the same campaign.Murphy falls neatly into the "red Tory" category too.His challenge is to prove he's not.

Mm, interesting. But Mr Brown is leaving Parliament at the GE, of course. And also, of course, Mr Brown would have to obey Mr Murphy as his leader.

That is assuming Mr M (a) gets elected [edit: as Scottish Labour leader] and (b) can achieve/survive the transition to become MSP - in which case, by the way, his prospective deputy would presumably be dumped as being a MSP, infavour of a Labour MP: a point I have not seen raised).

Findlay was very keen to wait until Brown had shown his hand before throwing his hat in the ring.For SLAB to recover,whoever is elected SLAB leader would be negligent not to seek Gordon's wise counsel and understanding in assessing the necessary strategic direction for GE2015 and beyond.Murphy and Brown have "previous" which could well get in the way of the common cause.

JonnyJimmy

HYUFD said:

JonnyJim You have to have made NI payments to claim a state pension and contributory JSA

But NI payments aren't put aside for that are they?

dobbin

Time to delurk
Will be classed as PB Tory
Born raised Edinburgh...now in Yorkshire
Psychiatrist by trade...some PBers pique my professional interest!

SNP are and will remain strong in NE Scotland a No area.Do not think anyone will have them losing any of their current seats. Bar Kennedy and Orkney SNP likely to sweep all LD Scottish seats.
SNP likely to be ahead in votes at GE but not by current margin...Murphy is competent first rank politician and will rally SLAB to a modest extent. SNP and SLAB will have similar seat numbers.
Tories have shot at couple of gains in Scotland eg Borders,Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh West.

Anyone too rude to me liable to be sectioned!

JonnyJimmy

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

JonnyJimmy

dobbin said:

Time to delurk
Will be classed as PB Tory
Born raised Edinburgh...now in Yorkshire
Psychiatrist by trade...some PBers pique my professional interest!

SNP are and will remain strong in NE Scotland a No area.Do not think anyone will have them losing any of their current seats. Bar Kennedy and Orkney SNP likely to sweep all LD Scottish seats.
SNP likely to be ahead in votes at GE but not by current margin...Murphy is competent first rank politician and will rally SLAB to a modest extent. SNP and SLAB will have similar seat numbers.
Tories have shot at couple of gains in Scotland eg Borders,Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh West.

Anyone too rude to me liable to be sectioned!

Delurkers should never be abused, unless they talk utter rubbish.. So I think you'll be ok. Welcome dobbin

Itajai

Financier said:

Apols OGH, but going back to the previous thread where a lot of hot typing was dispensed over the effects of immigrants (e.g. Polish plumbers) on the potential wage rates of the unemployed and who is benefiting from this lower cost.

This is really a window of opportunity for the eastern Europeans whereby they can earn more in the UK and remit their savings home as long as wage rates are higher in the UK than in Poland. Also from the employers' viewpoint, the total employment costs have to be lower by employing an eastern European than an unemployed UK person, notwithstanding willingness to work.

As @foxinsox implied, if workfare was introduced for the UK unemployed in return for their benefits, we may have fewer immigrants here and so less pressure on housing, NHS etc. (Labour and LDs would oppose that policy).

However, whilst globalisation was mentioned, the real implications for UK exporters was not explored. As a UK high-tech consultancy, we charge in excess of £100 per hour for our services ( as do most UK solicitors). This is fine with the oil majors globally as they are willing to pay such prices in the knowledge that we have the competency to do the right job.

However, the standard of technical expertise in the BRIC countries is growing rapidly and our equivalent in India will charge 25%-50% of our rate as their labour costs are far lower. So potentially this affects our export growth, unless we set up a branch in India - which will have to have mainly Indian employees. We can only charge our UK rate in export markets if we continue to be ahead in the technology race.

Unfortunately, the general standard of UK graduates is declining along with the standard of UK education, whilst that those from Asia is increasing, where aspiration to be best is highly valued.

Thus it remains a puzzle to me why Labour wants to educate everyone to the lowest common standard, instead of wanting to educate all to the best of their ability - Labour's answer is to penalise the schools that educate our children the best

Labour's answer are empty slogans like "Education, education, education". Oh yes, and everyone gets an A at any subject.

Ninoinoz

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

Well, it's not entirely unusual that British football fans take an interest in continental football.

But what is laugh out loud funny about your post is that it imagines a Britain completely free of EU immigrants and their descendants.

How did Napoli do, BTW?

HenryGManson

Ideally Jim Murphy would like to enter the Scottish parliament before 2016 and have a by-election to coincide with the May general election. It's not ideal for him to be in Westminster for the next 17 months given Scottish politics right now. There's been some speculation that Ken MacIntosh MSP for Eastwood could make way and try to swap roles with Jim - they cover corresponding patches in both parliaments. However the trouble is that MacIntosh only beat the Conservatives here by 2000 in 2011 and the SNP were about 4900 behind and would be in contention.

The SNP would launch the mother of all assaults on an Eastwood by-election and while I'd fancy Murphy to win out, it could be too close for comfort. The idea that a new Scottish Labour leader could politically survive losing in this context is pretty much unthinkable. Jim's given up a lotat Westminster and end up with no seat at all in either parliament in just 5 years would possibly be a gamble too far. So unless he finds another more favourable seat to aim for then it'd be likely he sits in Westminster until May 2016 and rely on the climate improving.

GeoffM

Welcome, dobbin!

JonnyJimmy

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

I noticed last week that the BBC didn't bother to even show the live scores of the England u18, u19, and u20 games going on that night. But they do manage to keep us up to date with the Greek and Finnish league games. WTF?

Eh_ehm_a_eh

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

Nation shall speak peace unto nation. Including their football teams.

Itajai

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

As opposed to challenging Labour's voodoo economics?

Bread and circuses still works.

JonnyJimmy

Ninoinoz said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

Well, it's not entirely unusual that British football fans take an interest in continental football.

But what is laugh out loud funny about your post is that it imagines a Britain completely free of EU immigrants and their descendants.

How did Napoli do, BTW?

I have no idea how Napoli did and I don't care. Do you really think that the British Broadcasting Corporation should be giving more attention to the Italian club scores than the England youth teams? Or even giving them any attention at all? We have immigrants from probably every country in the world, should the BBC devote resources to reporting the football results from all of them?

Itajai

JonnyJimmy said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

I noticed last week that the BBC didn't bother to even show the live scores of the England u18, u19, and u20 games going on that night. But they do manage to keep us up to date with the Greek and Finnish league games. WTF?

Do they still cover African football in depth? Just to make themselves feel better and "with it".

JonnyJimmy

Itajai said:

JonnyJimmy said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

I noticed last week that the BBC didn't bother to even show the live scores of the England u18, u19, and u20 games going on that night. But they do manage to keep us up to date with the Greek and Finnish league games. WTF?

Do they still cover African football in depth? Just to make themselves feel better and "with it".

They don't seem to cover any of their club football, thankfully, but I'm pretty sure they'll go big on the Africa Nations Cup. At least that's international football, but why should it get better coverage than the England youth teams?

Ninoinoz

JonnyJimmy said:

Ninoinoz said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

Well, it's not entirely unusual that British football fans take an interest in continental football.

But what is laugh out loud funny about your post is that it imagines a Britain completely free of EU immigrants and their descendants.

How did Napoli do, BTW?

I have no idea how Napoli did and I don't care. Do you really think that the British Broadcasting Corporation should be giving more attention to the Italian club scores than the England youth teams? Or even giving them any attention at all? We have immigrants from probably every country in the world, should the BBC devote resources to reporting the football results from all of them?

Well, they are paying for their licence free like (almost) everyone else.

It seems multicultural Britain isn't to your taste when it is your interests that are affected.

JonnyJimmy

Ninoinoz said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Ninoinoz said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

Well, it's not entirely unusual that British football fans take an interest in continental football.

But what is laugh out loud funny about your post is that it imagines a Britain completely free of EU immigrants and their descendants.

How did Napoli do, BTW?

I have no idea how Napoli did and I don't care. Do you really think that the British Broadcasting Corporation should be giving more attention to the Italian club scores than the England youth teams? Or even giving them any attention at all? We have immigrants from probably every country in the world, should the BBC devote resources to reporting the football results from all of them?

Well, they are paying for their licence free like (almost) everyone else.

It seems multicultural Britain isn't to your taste when it is your interests that are affected.

So you actually think that the BBC should cover the sport from every home nation of every single license payer?

That's an utterly insane idea.

HYUFD

AnotherDave It includes the Star, I believe Express newspapers backed Blair, then Howard, then Cameron, so this would be a switch to Farage

Ninoinoz

JonnyJimmy said:

Ninoinoz said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Ninoinoz said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

Well, it's not entirely unusual that British football fans take an interest in continental football.

But what is laugh out loud funny about your post is that it imagines a Britain completely free of EU immigrants and their descendants.

How did Napoli do, BTW?

I have no idea how Napoli did and I don't care. Do you really think that the British Broadcasting Corporation should be giving more attention to the Italian club scores than the England youth teams? Or even giving them any attention at all? We have immigrants from probably every country in the world, should the BBC devote resources to reporting the football results from all of them?

Well, they are paying for their licence free like (almost) everyone else.

It seems multicultural Britain isn't to your taste when it is your interests that are affected.

So you actually think that the BBC should cover the sport from every home nation of every single license payer?

That's an utterly insane idea.

There are more than enough immigrants in this country that would be interested, thanks to an immigration policy you support.

Abolition of the BBC would solve any problems, of course.

JonnyJimmy

JonnyJimmy said:

Ninoinoz said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Ninoinoz said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Just looked at the BBC's home page and their main feature on it is six pictures of foreign footballers, playing in foreign leagues, and the caption says "European Football: follow Sunday's best games".

Is this what the license fee is supposed to fund?

Well, it's not entirely unusual that British football fans take an interest in continental football.

But what is laugh out loud funny about your post is that it imagines a Britain completely free of EU immigrants and their descendants.

How did Napoli do, BTW?

I have no idea how Napoli did and I don't care. Do you really think that the British Broadcasting Corporation should be giving more attention to the Italian club scores than the England youth teams? Or even giving them any attention at all? We have immigrants from probably every country in the world, should the BBC devote resources to reporting the football results from all of them?

Well, they are paying for their licence free like (almost) everyone else.

It seems multicultural Britain isn't to your taste when it is your interests that are affected.

So you actually think that the BBC should cover the sport from every home nation of every single license payer?

That's an utterly insane idea.

I should add that if they can do it for free by letting foreign sports fans update their foreign sports pages, I'd be quite happy for that to happen.

HenryGManson

From his Scottish Mail on Sunday's interview, Jim Murphy would aim for 'the patriotic majority who voted no in the referendum but normally vote for other parties.'

https://twitter.com/jimmurphymp/status/539108600074211329